By Phil Steele

Last week the Top 25 Forecasts went 17-3 85% and on the year they are now 180-38 83%! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week which look to bounce back this week.

For projected box scores and last 14 years matchups, click here.

#1 Oregon vs #14 Stanford

Stanford has lost 2 games during the regular season in ‘10 and ‘11 and they were both to Oregon as the Ducks are 9-1 in this series. Last year the grass was wet and muddy which favored the bigger Cardinal but the speedy Ducks still won 53-30. The last time here SU actually led 21-3 after 1Q and 31-24 at the half but UO would score the only points in the 2H in the 52-31 home win. Last week the Ducks withstood injuries to their entire DL and brief absences by QB Mariota and Barner to win their 13th straight game overall 59-17 over Cal. Mariota threw 6 td’s and UO scored the game’s final 35 points after Cal cut it to 24-17 in the 3Q. SU is off a 27-23 win over OSU in a topsy-turvey game that saw Stanford race out to a 14-0 lead before OSU scored 23 straight points, then the Cardinal closed it out with 2 td’s. QB Hogan got his first start and completed 22-29-254-3-2 and they overcame a -3 TO deficit. UO has the Civil War on deck but after being crowned the AP’s new #1 team with GameDay on hand, look for the Ducks to keep their foot on the gas here as this is a terrible matchup for the slower Cardinal.

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As of today here are my picks for the 2011-12 Bowl Confidence Contest. Naturally the team highlighted in green is my pick to win the game and the pts column represents how confident I am with that pick. I may or may not make a change tomorrow before the 2:00 PM ET deadline but will post the new picks (if there are some) in tomorrow’s blog. Enjoy and make sure you check out the information below on how to sign up for this year’s contest!

Phil Steele’s 2011-12 Bowl Confidence Picks

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Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game. Last week the Top 25 Forecasts went 13-7 (65%) and so far this season I am 176-39 (82%).

Last year the Top 25 forecasts went 205-60 (77%)! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week.

Tough loss for Alabama to LSU. Bama’s first possession got to the LSU27 but they missed a 44 yd FG. Bama’s 2nd poss got to the LSU23 but they lost 10 yds then missed a 50 yd FG. Bama got to the LSU24 but they lost 7 yds and brought in their short kicker to attempt a 49 yd’r but it was blk’d. Bama got to the LSU17 but settled for a 34 yd FG to lead 3-0. At this point Bama had a 181-55 yd edge but only led 3-0 and LSU, thanks to an offsides on 3&1 and a defensive holding on an incomplete pass on 3&4, would get a 19 yd FG on the final play of the half to tie it. LSU was int’d and ret’d to their 4 but a penalty brought it back to the 35 and Bama settled for a 46 yd FG, 6-3. LSU got a 33 yd IR to the UA15 setting up a 2 yd “drive” for a 30 yd FG to tie (14:13 4Q). Richardson ripped off a 24 yd run to the LSU28 and Bama had a great call. Maze, out of the shotgun, threw deep and the TE caught the ball, came down on his back with it at the 1 yd line but the LSU DB wrestled the ball away from him and amazingly it was ruled an int and LSU got off a 73 yd punt with 9:00 left but neither crossed the 50 and the game went to OT. In OT Bama took a sk and missed their FOURTH FG of the game, a 52 yd’r and LSU got a 25 yd FG for the win. Read more…

Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game. Last week the Top 25 Forecasts went 17-2 (89%) and so far this season I am 154-25 (86%).

Last year the Top 25 forecasts went 205-60 (77%)! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week.

Read more…

HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS: 49-27 64%

TCU took its opening drive 36/7pl for a 47 yd FG. San Diego St went 72/16pl but a 31 yd FG had a bad snap and on 4&8 they gained 5 yards. TCU went 91/9pl and on 3&6 got a 39 yd TD pass, 10-0. SDSt went 74/6pl but fumbled into the EZ for a TB. TCU went 58/7pl and was int’d at the 15 and ret’d 23 yds and a personal foul brought it to the TCU47. SDSt was int’d 3 plays later at the 24 and ret’d 26 yards. TCU went 50/5pl for a 31 yd TD pass, 17-0. TCU went 61/11pl but on FD from the SDSt17 was int’d in the EZ. The Frogs had a 281-144 yd edge at the half. TCU got 2 FD’s and punted to open the 3Q and the Aztecs on 3&8 were int’d and returned 22 yds to the 10. TCU settled for a 21 yd FG, 20-7. TCU fumbled the punt at their own 15 and on 3&11 SDSt got a 16 yd TD pass, 20-0. SDSt went 77/10pl and got a 4 yd TD pass, 20-14 (13:39). TCU punted and SDS got a 3&12, 20 yd pass to the TCU49 but was int’d and ret’d 19 yards (10:08 4Q). TCU went 49/9pl and got a 4 yd TD run, 27-14. SDSt was SOD at their own 44 on 4&1, SOD at their own 33 on 4&10 and TCU then got a 24 yd run to the 5 but fumbled. SDS was SOD at their own 14 on 4&1. Read more…

I have been publishing a Most Improved Teams list since 1999 and the list hit a home run that very first year. I pegged Hawaii as my #1 Most Improved Team and they were coming off an 0-12 record in 1998. The then “Rainbow Warriors” simply set an NCAA record for largest improvement ever by going to 9-4 in 1999!

This year there are 16 teams on my Most Improved List and these are all teams that had losing records last year but ones I believe will be bowl eligible this year. Last season I had 19 teams on the list and 13 of them were bowl eligible at the end of the year with 17 of them improving their record! Do you think it is easy picking teams with losing records that will have a winning record the next year?

I went back to 1992 and there have been 969 teams that had a losing season. Of those 969 teams only 279 had a winning record the next year which is 28.8%. That means if a team is coming off a losing season there is over a 70% chance that they will have another losing record the next year!

Over the last nine years 109 of the teams that have made my Most Improved List have been bowl eligible the next year. In that same nine-year span there have been 475 teams with a losing record and of those 475 only 129 have gone onto a winning record (above .500) the next season (27.1%). Of those 129 teams, 79 of them were on my Most Improve List. Now you do the math here but as you can see very few teams go from a losing record to a bowl the next year if they are not on my Most Improved list.

This blog is about the one that got away. Read more…

Today I will take a break from the best case/worst case scenarios. First we are only 65 days away from the start of college football season and today I want to talk about a couple of new features on PhilSteele.com.

First, this past weekend on my Facebook Fans page I took requests for some of my early forecasts for 2011’s top games.  From the hundreds of requests here were the first four games.

Facebook Forecasts

1. Arkansas at Alabama, Sept 24th – Both teams have 1st year starting QB’s but Ark’s Wilson makes his first road start vs the best defense in the country (not ideal situation). In Mallett’s 1st start here (12 of 35 passing) and the Hogs lost 35-7 with just 254 yds offense. Ark Oline also is young and has to replace three 3-yr starters. Both teams are in my Top Ten in my Power Poll but 1st road starts are tough and the Tide wins at home 27-17. Read more…

Yesterday I blogged about a 2 year net win differential on teams that improved their record after having a record much weaker one season than they had the previous 2 years. I went in depth as to how I came upon that chart and the results. Today I will take a look at the 2 year net loss indicator. For a deeper explanation on how this chart was achieved, go to the blog posted on June 23rd.

When I reviewed the numbers since 1990, it was surprising that team’s with a -4.5 net loss indicator or higher, which was a great sampling than the -7.5 net or higher actually achieved a better percentage. While two teams managed to improve their record at the very top of the chart, none did in 6.5 or 6.0. In fact of teams that had a -6.0 net loss indicator or higher, only 2 managed to improve their record. In 2003 Navy which went from 8-5 to 10-2 and 2000 South Carolina which went from 8-4 to 9-3. The biggest drop offs were 1998 Tulane which had a -7.5 net loss indicator and went from 12-0 to 3-8. Interestingly in 1998 I called for Washington St to go from a Rose Bowl to last place in the Pac-10 – which they did and in the 2 year net loss indicator they were -6.0 and went from 10-2 to 3-8. Others that achieved large drop offs were 2008 Ball St which went from 12-2 to 2-10 with a -6 net loss indicator and 1996 Army which went from 10-2 to 4-7 with a -5.5 net loss indicator. Read more…