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Posts Tagged ‘Alabama’

2012 Preseason AP Top 10 Projection!

January 30th, 2012 1 comment

Well here it is, my projected AP Top 10 for next year as of January 30, 2012! I will mention it now and I will mention it numerous times throughout today’s blog but this is not MY preseason Top 10 for next year, it is where I project the AP Top 10 to come out at the start of the season.

Most AP voters usually look at a couple of criteria when they evaluate a team for the upcoming season. First they look at the number of returning starters that the team has coming back particularly at the offensive skill positions. A team that returns its starting QB and a combination of its RB and WR’s is often times more highly thought of than a team that loses its starting QB but returns its entire offensive line. Similarly a team that returns most of its starters on offense but loses a lot of its defensive playmakers usually is more highly thought of than a team that returns a majority of its defensive starters but loses its skill position players on offense.

Another factor that is heavily weighted is the performance of the team in the bowl game, which undoubtedly is the lasting image of that team in the offseason. A team coming off a huge bowl win usually is more highly thought of than a team that is coming off a bowl loss regardless of what their schedule looks like for the upcoming season. Read more…

National Championship Forecast!

January 9th, 2012 1 comment
BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
Monday, January 9th @ 8:30 p.m.
Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

ALABAMA (11-1) VS LSU (13-0)

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
ALABAMA 142
145
21
2.0
-
100.2
LSU
158
80
25
1.3
•••
101.6

The 1st Nat’l Title gm rematch S/’96 and the 1st time in the BCS era 2 tms from the same conf will meet for the title. LSU won the earlier meeting 9-6 in OT in Tuscaloosa thanks to 4 missed Bama FG’s (7 trips inside LSU35) and were also outgained 295-239. The Tigers are 3-2 vs Bama since former LSU HC Saban took over and Miles is 5-2 vs the Tide (only LSU HC ever to beat Bama 5x’s). There are 6 common opp’s with Bama going 6-0 outscoring foes 39-10 (+265 ypg) while LSU was 6-0 outscoring foes 39-9 (+200 ypg). Bama is gunning for its 2nd BCS Title in 3 yrs and makes just its 2nd appearance in NO (lost to Utah ‘08) since winning the ‘92 Nat’l Title here. Saban is 6-6 overall in bowls including 3-1 at Bama. LSU has won their L/2 Nat’l Titles (‘03, ‘07) in the Superdome and this is their 5th NO postssn appearance S/’01 (4-0). Overall Miles is 6-3 in bowls but is 5-1 at LSU. Bama was 6-1 vs bowl tms outscoring them on avg 30-9 and outgaining them 375-200 while LSU was 9-0 vs bowl tms TY outscoring them 36-13 despite only outgaining those foes 366-288. Bama has 9 Sr st’rs among 19 upperclassmen while LSU has 8 Sr st’rs among 13 upperclassmen.

The Tide started the yr with a QB controversy between Sims/McCarron. After a 5 TO perf by the off vs Kent St, soph McCarron settled in as the st’r and at one pt had a streak of 152 passes w/out an int (3rd longest in schl hist). RB Richardson who many felt was more talented than 2009 Heisman winner Ingram had arguably a better ssn than Ingram’s Heisman campaign incl nine 100 yd gms despite having to face 5 D’s that ranked in the top 20! Doak Walker winner Richardson had a knack for coming up with his best perf in big gms incl 169 of Bama’s 295 ttl yds vs LSU. If there is one weakness on the Bama off it would be the WR’s as they have struggled to find a deep-threat replacement for #1DC Jones. Maze has great spd and versatility but lacks height and they often use two TE sets with Smelley/Williams. The OL avg 6’4” 313 with 1 Sr st’r and are led by Outland winner LT Jones who can play every pos which helped the Tide avg a Saban-era high 220 rush ypg (5.6) while all’g just 15 sks (4.6%). Overall they have my #9 off. The D is clearly #1 as they are the first tm in 25 yrs to lead the NCAA in the 4 major categories (rush, pass, ttl and scoring D). The Tide’s 3 man DL avg 6’2” 305 with 1 Sr st’r. They have 2 AA at LB in Hightower who finally ret’d to his ‘08 form (knee inj early ‘09) and Upshaw who led the tm in sks and tfl for a 2nd yr in a row. The secondary features at least 5 future early round NFL draft picks and are led by 3x AA S Barron and rank #7 in my pass D all’g just 116 ypg (48%) with a 6-12 ratio. The ST’s rank #65 as both K’s have struggled hitting only 2-11 from 40+ incl the 4 misses vs LSU but PR/KR Maze is #10 FBS PR and would lead the SEC in KR if he had enough att to qualify.

The Tigers were able to overcome several off-field issues incl the susp of many of their leaders on off/def throughout the yr to achieve their first 13-0 ssn in schl hist while winning their 11th SEC Title. QB Lee (Jefferson susp’d 1st 4) was solid in the 1st 8 gms avg 156 ypg (63%) with a 13-1 ratio. After he threw 2 int’s vs Bama, Lee was pulled for Jefferson who has played every meaningful snap since. The talented group of RB’s combine spd (Ford/Blue) and power (Ware/Hilliard). Each RB has 7 or more TD’s and will be used in a variety of formations. The WR’s are led by deep threat Randle while true frosh Beckham has been the surprise. The OL avg 6’5” 315 with 2 Sr st’rs led by OG’s Blackwell and Hebert and paved the way for a Miles-era high 215 rush ypg (5.0) while all’g 14 sks (5.3%). Overall the Tigers have my #13 off. The #2 D’s ability to pressure the QB (37 sks) is a big reason why LSU is #1 in the country in TO margin (+22). The DL features the best group of young DL in the country avg 6’5” 273 with 1 Sr st’r and incl AA DE Montgomery (#5 SEC sks). LB Baker leads a corps that often gets overlooked as the def stars are in the secondary. Bednarik winner CB Mathieu is the nation’s biggest playmaker on D (6 FF, 5 FR, 2 TD’s) while fellow CB and Thorpe winner Claiborne may be the 1st DB taken in the upcoming draft and S Reid made the big int at the GL vs Bama. The Tigers rank #3 in my pass D all’g 167 ypg (51%) with a 7-18 ratio. ST’s are #2 thanks to efficient K Alleman (3-3 vs Bama), All-SEC P Wing’s directional punting is a big reason why the Tigers are all’g 13 inches per PR (#1) and Mathieu who has had 2 momentum changing PR TD’s in the L/2 gms.

We’re in for a treat and the BCS system got it right, matching up the top 2 teams. I think the difference in this game will be the adjustments Saban will make from the first game and I think Bama will capatilize on their trips inside LSU territory unlike the first game. I think Richardson is the best player on the field will have a very big game. I picked Alabama to win the national title in my magazine 8 months ago and will stick with my pick here. Roll Tide!

PHIL’S FORECAST: ALABAMA 21 LSU 17

My Favorite Teams for 2011!

August 4th, 2011 3 comments

A lot of people ask me if I have a favorite team. I was born and raised and still live in Cleveland, Ohio. I was a fan of many teams as a child but now that I put out a National magazine, I cannot afford to be a fan of any team. I have to pick the teams where I think they will finish each year. I was doing a radio show last week and I was asked if I have a favorite team or teams. My response was a strong YES! The interviewer was surprised by that answer and also eager to hear which team I would pick. My answer was my favorite team each year is the team I pick #1 in the magazine and my favorite teams are the ones I have picked higher than all the other major magazines out there. I then said that each year I establish a list of my favorite teams for that year. I then give this list to my wife. I wear a shirt and tie to work every day during the week and my tie is always a college team. I wear polo shirts during the weekend and when not at work and they are always different college teams. The list I give my wife is the ones to buy that I will be wearing for the upcoming year as these are the teams I will be the biggest fan of for the upcoming season. I was then asked “What teams will your wife be buying ties and shirts of this year? That was a great question and I thought I would answer it in a blog.

I went to preseason.stassen.com to find out where all the magazines have everyone ranked for the upcoming year. Here is the list of teams that I will be rooting for the most this year.

1. Alabama-As I said every year the team that is my pick to win the national title is my favorite team of the year and this year that team is the Alabama Crimson Tide. Last year I was ambushed by many Crimson Tide fans because I did not pick them to go to the national title game when many had them pre-season #1. They only had 2 starters back on D and a brutal schedule. In the end Bama went 10-3 and did not play in the title game like I predicted. This year is a different story. The Tide have the best defense in the country and their schedule is much more manageable as they avoid South Carolina and Georgia out of the East and get Arkansas and LSU at home. I will be decked out in Bama garb all year long and hopefully they bring home their second national title in three years! Read more…

2011 Top 25 Frosh Recruiting Rankings

February 28th, 2011 No comments

Here are my top 25 2011 recruiting rankings. They take into account the strength of the Top 5 signees, the Top 10 signees and the average signing grade per player for the overall class. This list is not about the quantity of the freshmen signed but the overall quality of the class. Sometimes a team with a small class of just 15 players may rate higher than one with 30. (Keep in my mind these rankings could be tweaked by the time my magazine hits the newsstands in early June) Read more…

Odds to Win 2011-12 BCS National Championship

February 14th, 2011 1 comment

Over the weekend I released my projected preseason AP Top 10 and I thought I would analyze another set of rankings for the upcoming season. A couple of weeks ago, several casinos released their odds for the 2011-12 BCS National Championship. While PhilSteele.com does not affiliate itself with gambling, I do think it is interesting to see how Vegas is examining the upcoming season.

Here are the Top 10 Favorites to win the title this upcoming year courtesy of Bodog.com.

1. Oklahoma             Odds: 7/2

If you checked out my projected AP Top 10 blog, you would have read that the Sooners are clearly the favorite going into next season and the odds certainly agree here. They return 15 starters on off/def including QB Jones, WR Broyles and LB Lewis. Their schedule sets up nicely with a bye before their road trip to Florida St (a team they dominated LY 47-17). In Big 12 play naturally there is the Red River Rivalry game vs Texas who is coming off a 5-7 season and the only other huge hurdle could be the season finale at Oklahoma St but the Sooners have won the Bedlam rivalry 8 straight times and have an overall mark of 82-16-7 vs their in-state rivals. Read more…

Projected Preseason AP Top 10

February 11th, 2011 13 comments

Well here it is, my projected AP Top 10 for next year as of February 11, 2011! I will mention it now and I will mention it numerous times throughout today’s blog but this is not MY preseason Top 10 for next year, it is where I project the AP Top 10 to come out at the start of the season.

Most AP voters usually look at a couple of criteria when they evaluate a team for the upcoming season. First they look at the number of returning starters that the team has coming back particularly at the offensive skill positions. A team that returns its starting QB and a combination of its RB and WRs is often times more highly thought of than a team that loses its starting QB but returns its entire offensive line. Similarly a team that returns most of its starters on offense but loses a lot of its defensive playmakers usually is more highly thought of than a team that returns a majority of its defensive starters but loses its skill position players on offense.

Another factor that is heavily weighted is the performance of the team in the bowl game, which undoubtedly is the lasting image of that team in the offseason. A team coming off a huge bowl win usually is more highly thought of than a team that is coming off a bowl loss regardless of what their schedule looks like for the upcoming season.

Using these criteria and a few more, I project the preseason AP Top 10 every year at the conclusion of the previous season, which in most cases is nearly 6 months in advance. Now as you all know, a lot can happen from January to August including injuries, suspensions, transfers, etc. Read more…

2011 Returning Starters!

January 26th, 2011 3 comments

We have already been working hard on the 2011 season and Today’s blog is the current list for Returning Starters for each team in 2011 broken down by offense, defense and special teams (kicker/punter). The * on the offense number denotes that the starting QB is returning. Below the list I broke down teams with the most/least returning starters.

I will be back later this week with all the Senior Bowl/Pro Bowl coverage you need to prepare you for this weekend’s games. On Monday I will expand on the Las Vegas odds to win the 2011 BCS National Championship and give you a breakdown of each of the 50 teams including key starters back/lost. Read more…

January 1st Bowl Forecasts

January 1st, 2011 No comments

Happy New Year!!!

TICKET CITY BOWL
12:00 PM ESPNU
Click bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

NORTHWESTERN (7-5) VS TEXAS TECH (7-5)

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
NORTHWESTERN 156
255
26
2.7
98.1
TEXAS TECH
164
350
37
2.6
-
101.3
This is the inaugural year of the TicketCity Bowl which will be played at the Cotton Bowl and fittingly this is the 1st matchup for these programs. The Raiders return to the post season for the 11th straight year and they are the only team in the Big 12 to be bowl eligible every season in the conference’s existence. Northwestern is headed to its 3rd straight bowl under Fitzgerald and he has made it the program’s goal to win a bowl game for the 1st time S/’48 (lost L/7). TT played Baylor in this stadium on Oct 9th beating the bowl bound Bears 45-38 while this is the Cats 1st trip here. TT will have a significant crowd edge as Lubbock is a 6 hr drive from Dallas and they have many alums in the area.

After throwing the game winning TD pass to knock off Iowa, Persa ruptured his Achilles tendon. Persa had accounted for 75.5% of NW’s offense and his 73.5% comp set a school record and is #2 in B10 history. His replacement is 6’6” pocket passer Watkins who hit 129 (55%) with a 1-4 ratio (49 rush) in his 2 starts and the Cats actually burned the RS off the more mobile Colten for the L/2. The 2 QB’s comb for 6 TO’s in the finale loss to Wisky and Ftizgerald vowed the squad would get right back to work with practice so the frosh QB’s could get more experience before the bowl. On defense NW finished #36 pass eff D (231, 59%, 21-14) led by #1 tkl’r S Peters and top cover CB Mabin. K Demos struggled at times (missing 2 FG’s in the Purdue loss) and would like to atone for missing the potential GW in LY’s wild OT bowl loss to Auburn. P Williams is #3 B10 in net (38.2) with good placement (18 FC).

Tuberville vowed to keep the Air Raid offense but he added more of an emphasis on the run game and after running for over 140 yds in a game 18x in the previous 10Y, the Raiders did it 7x TY led by the combo of Batch and Stephens. The pass #’s shrunk as expected -72 ypg although QB Potts finished as the B12’s #3 passer. The D also had a major scheme change as they went to a 3-4. Depth was a major issue and Tuberville numerous times bemoaned the unit’s lack of speed until he eventually said the best way for them to win was to simply outscore people. Inj’s really hit the secondary hard as TT’s pass D finished dead last in the FBS ypg all’d although they were #87 in my pass eff D (306, 62%, 27-14). TT was #36 in ST’s even though they allowed onside K’s to be ret’d for TD’s in B2B gms vs ISU and Baylor. P LaCour’s net of 38.8 was #16 NCAA and KR Stephens remains 1 of the B12’s best.

Read more…

Week 5 Top 25 Game Grades

October 4th, 2010 No comments
RK TEAM Foe OFF
RUSH
OFF
PASS
OFF
PTS
DEF
RUSH
DEF
PASS
DEF
PTS
GM GD
1 BAYLOR Kansas 244 434 55 99 171 7 105.6
2 OREGON Stanford 388 237 52 174 340 31 102.3
3 BOISE ST AT New Mexico St 299 310 59 118 89 0 99.275
4 ALABAMA Florida 165 104 31 75 202 6 97.9
5 TCU AT Colorado St 346 128 27 45 116 0 92.125
6 MIAMI FLA AT Clemson 177 205 30 162 149 21 91.85
7 OKLAHOMA Texas 127 242 28 107 267 20 91.3
8 IOWA Penn St 122 227 24 69 247 3 90.75
9 TULSA AT Memphis 233 214 48 125 82 7 90.2
10 MICHIGAN ST Wisconsin 170 270 34 181 127 24 89.925
11 FLORIDA ST AT Virginia 256 172 34 25 279 14 89.65
11 FLORIDA AT Alabama 75 202 6 165 104 31 89.65
13 WASHINGTON AT USC 219 319 32 290 196 31 88.55
13 AUBURN ULM 234 272 52 36 232 3 88.55
15 OHIO ST AT Illinois 207 77 24 119 133 13 88
15 TEXAS A&M AT Oklahoma St 126 409 35 67 284 38 88
17 NOTRE DAME AT Boston College 112 203 31 5 265 13 87.725
17 TEXAS Oklahoma 107 267 20 127 242 28 87.725
19 IDAHO AT W Michigan 97 380 33 80 104 13 86.625
20 NEVADA AT UNLV 377 142 44 85 214 26 85.525
21 VIRGINIA TECH AT NC State 316 123 41 142 362 30 84.7
22 ILLINOIS Ohio St 119 133 13 207 77 24 83.875
23 STANFORD AT Oregon 174 340 31 388 237 52 83.6
23 OREGON ST Arizona St 156 260 31 161 203 28 83.6
23 HAWAII Louisiana Tech 115 532 41 127 223 21 83.6

Read more…

Week 3 Top 25 Game Grades

September 20th, 2010 No comments
Rk FOE OFF RUSH OFF PASS OFF PTS DEF RUSH DEF PASS DEF PTS GM Grade
1 NEBRASKA AT Washington 384 150 56 176 70 21 111.1
2 BOISE ST AT Wyoming 274 373 50 -22 158 6 109.175
3 ALABAMA AT Duke 315 312 62 145 156 13 108.075
4 OREGON PORTLAND ST 525 149 69 78 72 0 107.8
5 TCU Baylor 289 269 45 100 163 10 100.375
6 STANFORD Wake Forest 303 232 68 212 71 24 99.55
7 OKLAHOMA ST Tulsa 148 574 65 199 229 28 98.725
8 OHIO ST Ohio 158 281 43 79 82 7 98.175
9 AIR FORCE AT Oklahoma 343 107 24 139 248 27 94.875
10 TEXAS AT Texas Tech 95 228 24 22 154 14 94.325
11 FLORIDA ST BYU 278 149 34 76 115 10 92.95
12 LSU Mississippi St 167 95 29 152 115 7 89.925
13 ARIZONA Iowa 65 304 34 27 283 27 87.725
14 CLEMSON AT Auburn 187 220 24 221 203 27 86.9
15 WEST VIRGINIA Maryland 201 268 31 -10 227 17 86.625
15 GEORGIA TECH AT North Carolina 372 76 30 143 209 24 86.625
17 FLORIDA AT Tennessee 166 167 31 29 256 17 86.35
18 UTAH AT New Mexico 181 247 56 72 156 14 85.25
19 UCLA Houston 265 99 31 118 256 13 84.15
20 PENN ST Kent St 154 220 24 58 169 0 83.875
21 NC ST Cincinnati 158 333 30 75 310 19 82.775
22 COLORADO Hawaii 252 200 31 7 330 13 82.5
22 ARMY North Texas 292 45 24 95 106 0 82.5
24 FRESNO ST AT Utah St 230 149 41 205 106 24 82.225
25 MICHIGAN ST Notre Dame 203 274 34 92 369 31 81.675
25 SAN DIEGO ST AT Missouri 250 190 24 89 351 27 81.675

Read more…