Well here it is, my projected AP Top 10 for next year as of January 30, 2012! I will mention it now and I will mention it numerous times throughout today’s blog but this is not MY preseason Top 10 for next year, it is where I project the AP Top 10 to come out at the start of the season.

Most AP voters usually look at a couple of criteria when they evaluate a team for the upcoming season. First they look at the number of returning starters that the team has coming back particularly at the offensive skill positions. A team that returns its starting QB and a combination of its RB and WR’s is often times more highly thought of than a team that loses its starting QB but returns its entire offensive line. Similarly a team that returns most of its starters on offense but loses a lot of its defensive playmakers usually is more highly thought of than a team that returns a majority of its defensive starters but loses its skill position players on offense.

Another factor that is heavily weighted is the performance of the team in the bowl game, which undoubtedly is the lasting image of that team in the offseason. A team coming off a huge bowl win usually is more highly thought of than a team that is coming off a bowl loss regardless of what their schedule looks like for the upcoming season.

Using these criteria and a few more, I project the preseason AP Top 10 every year at the conclusion of the previous season, which in most cases is nearly 6 months in advance. Now as you all know, a lot can happen from January to August including injuries, suspensions, transfers, etc.

In 2009, my projected Top 10 for the AP Poll was #1 Florida, #2 Texas, #3 USC, #4 Oklahoma, #5 Alabama, #6 Virginia Tech, #7 LSU, #8 Oklahoma St, #9 Ohio St and #10 Mississippi. The actual AP Top 10 was #1 Florida, #2 Texas, #3 Oklahoma, #4 USC, #5 Alabama, #6 Ohio St, #7 Virginia Tech, #8 Mississippi and #9 was a tie between Oklahoma St/Penn St.

I nailed nine of the ten teams that appeared in the Preseason Top 10 with the only exception being LSU/Penn St and I may have had something to do with that. It’s interesting to note that of the main preseason magazines, only two had Penn St ranked in the Top 10 and I had them my #1 surprise team and ranked #5. Most had Penn St out of the Top 10. Perhaps since I had them rated so high in my magazine, it influenced a few voters across the country, bumping them into the Top 10.

In 2010 I projected the preseason AP Top 10 would be #1 Alabama, #2 Ohio St, #3 Boise St, #4 Oregon, #5 Texas, #6 TCU, #7 Iowa, #8 Florida, #9 Nebraska and #10 Virginia Tech.

The actual AP Top 10 was #1 Alabama, #2 Ohio St, #3 Boise St, #4 Florida, #5 Texas, #6 TCU, #7 Oklahoma, #8 Nebraska, #9 Iowa and #10 Virginia Tech.

For the second year in a row I nailed nine of the ten teams that appeared in the Preseason Top 10 with the only exception being Oregon/Oklahoma, which I can defend easily.

First, at the time I wrote my projection back in early February Duck QB Jeremiah Masoli was not yet suspended. With Masoli still in the fold at that point Oregon had 17 returning starters including RB LaMichael James and Masoli in the backfield. The Ducks clearly would have been a preseason Top 10 team and probably Top 5 had Masoli not been kicked off the team. Even without Masoli Oregon was still rated #11 in the preseason poll.

The team that I did not have in my projected AP Top 10 was Oklahoma (#7) and if you have purchased the 2010 magazine or listened to one of my radio shows across the country you know I thought very highly of the Sooners as I had them ranked #1. Like Penn St in 2009 perhaps since I had them rated so high in my magazine, it influenced a few voters across the country, bumping them into the Top 10 despite the Sooners having five losses in 2009 and the fact that they did not even finish in the final AP Top 25.

I also am pleased that six of the 10 teams were ranked in the exact position that I projected including the Top 3 in Alabama, Ohio St and Boise St. I also had Texas, TCU and Virginia Tech ranked in their exact positions in the poll.

Last year I projected the preseason AP Top 10 would be #1 Oklahoma, #2 Alabama, #3 Oregon, #4 LSU, #5 Stanford, #6 Texas A&M, #7 Boise St, #8 Florida St, #9 Oklahoma St and #10 South Carolina.

The actual AP Top 10 was #1 Oklahoma, #2 Alabama, #3 Oregon, #4 LSU, #5 Boise St, #6 Florida St, #7 Stanford, #8 Texas A&M, #9 Oklahoma St and #10 Nebraska.

For the third year in a row I nailed nine of the ten teams that appeared in the Preseason Top 10 with the only exception being South Carolina/Nebraska, which I can defend easily.

First, when I released my projection back in February of last year South Carolina QB Stephen Garcia was still on the team and was not suspended which would end up costing him the spring and summer with the team. With Garcia’s status up in the air at the time of the AP ballots being due in late July and early August, South Carolina was dropped a bit giving way to Nebraska. The Cornhuskers meanwhile were my pick to win the Big Ten in last year’s magazine which probably influenced a few voters as well.

Now let’s take a look at this year’s projected Preseason AP Top 10:

***#10 West Virginia-The Mountaineers get the nod here due to a dominating 70-33 Orange bowl win over Clemson. This year WVU returns 14 starters including QB Geno Smith who should be more comfortable in his 2^nd-year of Dana Holgorsen’s offense. The asterisk is put on them because at the time of this projection it is not sure whether the Mountaineers will play in the Big East or the Big 12 for 2012. If they remain in the Big East they will be the clear-cut favorites with an easier schedule but if they are joining the Big 12 for 2012, their schedule will be tougher and I would project South Carolina for the #10 spot.

 #9 Arkansas-The Razorbacks have had their most successful B2B seasons since 1988-89 going 22-5 the last two years. This year they return 13 starters including QB Tyler Wilson and will get back 2010 All-SEC RB Knile Davis who was out all of last season with an ankle injury. Last year the Razorbacks lost only two games to the top 2 teams in LSU and Alabama (both on the road) and this year the Crimson Tide and Tigers have to travel to Arkansas.

#8 Florida St-The Seminoles were a darkhorse pick for the National Title last year but an injury to QB Manuel saw the Noles drop to 2-3 at one point in the season. FSU would respond to win 7 of its last 8 games including wins over Florida and Notre Dame in the bowl to cap off the season and this year they return 15 starters including QB Manuel and defensive stars DL Jenkins and DB Reid. FSU looks to also bring in one of the best frosh classes in the country and should clearly be the favorites in the ACC.

#7 Michigan-The Wolverines were one of the biggest surprises in college football last year winning 11 games and a BCS Bowl under first-year HC Brady Hoke. This year they return 7 starters on offense led by QB Denard Robinson and RB Toussaint who should be more comfortable in the 2^nd-year of the new offense. UM also return 7 starters from a defense that allowed just 17.4 ppg (#6) which was nearly an 18 ppg improvement from 2010! Michigan finished #12 in the final AP poll and figure to be the favorites to win the Big Ten this year.

#6 Georgia-I was one of the few people in the country last year to pick Georgia to win the SEC East over South Carolina thanks to a favorable SEC slate that had them avoiding Arkansas, LSU and Alabama out of the West and the Bulldogs would not disappoint taking home the SEC East crown. This year they return 15 starters including QB Aaron Murray, leading rusher Isaiah Crowell, their top 2 rec’s and a 1^st-Team All-American candidate on D in OLB Jarvis Jones. Again the Bulldogs AVOID LSU, Alabama and Arkansas out of the SEC West and will be the favorites to repeat as SEC East Champs.

#5 Oklahoma-The Sooners were the preseason AP #1 team last year and clearly underachieved losing three games including a 44-10 beatdown in Bedlam. They did win their bowl game over Iowa, return 15 starters including QB Landry Jones who will play better than last year’s finish and HC Bob Stoops and the Sooners have won at least 10 games in a season 10 times since 2000!

#4 Oregon-The Ducks have become a fixture among the nation’s elite under HC Chip Kelly with 3 straight BCS appearances and last year captured their first Rose Bowl win since 1916! While QB Darron Thomas and RB LaMichael James are gone, their replacements are plenty capable as QB Bryan Bennett and RB’s Kenjon Barner and De’Anthony Thomas return with some valuable game experience and the Ducks do not open with a marquee non-conference game like they did last year vs LSU.

#3 Alabama-The Crimson Tide were my pick to win the National Title last year and they did just that avenging an earlier loss to LSU by dominating the Tigers in the BCS Championship game 21-0. This year the defending champs return 7 starters on offense led by QB AJ McCarron who played magnificently in the title game. While the defense returns only 4 starters from last year, keep in mind in 2010, the Tide returned only 2 defensive starters and were the Preseason AP #1 team!

#2 USC-Last year while the probation-stricken Trojans were not eligible to play in the Pac-12 title game, I picked them to be the best team in the South and clearly they were just that going 10-2 (7-2) beating their crosstown rival Bruins who were the de facto Pac-12 South Champs 50-0 in the regular season finale! The Trojans locked up their spot here with the surprising return of QB Matt Barkley who is clearly one of the Heisman favorites in 2012. He will have plenty of skill position talent surrounding him with his top 2 WR’s Robert Woods and Marqise Lee back and 1,000 yd rusher Curtis McNeal also returning.  A case could be made at the end of last season that no team in the country was hotter than USC winning 7 of their last 8 games with a 3OT loss to Stanford their only blemish. With 15 returning starters, the Trojans clearly will be one of the favorites to take home the crystal ball.

#1 LSU-Last year LSU was picked 2^nd in the SEC West behind Alabama and would go on to have arguably the best regular season in school history going 13-0 winning the SEC Championship and would beat EIGHT Top 25 teams! While the National Title loss to Alabama still stings, many of the Tigers’ star players return for 2012 including Heisman candidate DB Tyrann Mathieu along with their their top 4 rushers. Throw in QB Zach Mettenberger who Miles said last year was his best pure passing QB and a home game vs Alabama and the Tigers will be the favorites to win the National Title!

JUST MISSED OUT:

I mentioned at the start of the blog that last year I had nine of the top 10 teams correctly predicted and it was the same case in 2009 and 2010 where I also missed out by 1. If one of the team’s I have projected in the Top 10 doesn’t make the polls, there are some teams that have a shot at jumping into the Top 10.

This year I believe there is just one team with a shot and it is #11 South Carolina who could jump the Mountaineers depending on what conference WVU will be in for 2012. Also putting the Gamecocks here is the fact that if they are in the Top 10 that would mean 5 of those teams would be from the SEC. The Gamecocks do return 13 starters including QB Connor Shaw and get back RB Marcus Lattimore who missed the last six games with a knee injury. They also get last year’s SEC East winner Georgia at home.

There you have it – My projections for the AP Preseason Top 10. As mentioned a couple of times in this article, these WILL NOT BE THE TOP 10 IN MY MAGAZINE. As you know, I tend to go out on a limb in a lot of cases and have a lot of surprise picks in my magazine. Those will be unveiled at the start of June when my magazine hits the newsstands but when the first AP poll comes out in August this year, go ahead and take this list and compare it and you’ll find that probably 9 or maybe even all 10 will be in the Preseason AP Top 10 this year.

A lot of people ask me if I have a favorite team. I was born and raised and still live in Cleveland, Ohio. I was a fan of many teams as a child but now that I put out a National magazine, I cannot afford to be a fan of any team. I have to pick the teams where I think they will finish each year. I was doing a radio show last week and I was asked if I have a favorite team or teams. My response was a strong YES! The interviewer was surprised by that answer and also eager to hear which team I would pick. My answer was my favorite team each year is the team I pick #1 in the magazine and my favorite teams are the ones I have picked higher than all the other major magazines out there. I then said that each year I establish a list of my favorite teams for that year. I then give this list to my wife. I wear a shirt and tie to work every day during the week and my tie is always a college team. I wear polo shirts during the weekend and when not at work and they are always different college teams. The list I give my wife is the ones to buy that I will be wearing for the upcoming year as these are the teams I will be the biggest fan of for the upcoming season. I was then asked “What teams will your wife be buying ties and shirts of this year? That was a great question and I thought I would answer it in a blog.

I went to preseason.stassen.com to find out where all the magazines have everyone ranked for the upcoming year. Here is the list of teams that I will be rooting for the most this year.

1. Alabama-As I said every year the team that is my pick to win the national title is my favorite team of the year and this year that team is the Alabama Crimson Tide. Last year I was ambushed by many Crimson Tide fans because I did not pick them to go to the national title game when many had them pre-season #1. They only had 2 starters back on D and a brutal schedule. In the end Bama went 10-3 and did not play in the title game like I predicted. This year is a different story. The Tide have the best defense in the country and their schedule is much more manageable as they avoid South Carolina and Georgia out of the East and get Arkansas and LSU at home. I will be decked out in Bama garb all year long and hopefully they bring home their second national title in three years!

2. Southern Miss-Take the most talented team in CUSA and match it up vs the #117 schedule in the country and you get a Top 20 team! There is a chance there could be a couple of 12-0 teams in the CUSA title game because four of my 9 sets of power ratings call for Southern Miss to go 12-0 and this is by far the best team HC Fedora has fielded in his 4 years. Out of the major preseason magazines on stassen.com only Blue Ribbon and myself have the Golden Eagles in the Top 25 and I’m the only magazine to have them in my top 20.

3. Virginia Tech- The Hokies draw a lot of comparisons in my mind to last year’s National Champ Auburn. They have a big mobile 1st year starting QB and have a schedule in which all of their tough games are at home and they could be favored in every road game. VT also has one of the top coaches in college football in Frank Beamer. DC Bud Foster must have been angry the entire offseason after 2010’s weaker than expected D and should have them breathing fire. While they rank in 7 of the 8 position categories in my top units, they are not top 10 talent-wise, but when lined up with their schedule I give them a great shot at a 12-0 record and another trip to the ACC Title game. I am the only magazine other than Athlon that ranks them in the Top 10 and I have them higher than anyone so I’ll be a big Hokie fan this year.

4. Houston-Last year UH was the preseason favorite to win CUSA led by QB Keenum. UH put up 122 pts in the first 2 but then Keenum was inj’d and OFY in their loss to UCLA. The Cougars dropped 2 of the next 3 including a tough loss to Rice where they had a 436-344 yd edge but lost by 3. After beating SMU and Memphis, Houston was 5-3 and in the CUSA chase but suffered a tough loss at home to UCF and QB Piland had 5 int’s vs Tulsa in the 3 pt loss. They lost to SM by 18 and TT by 15 to finish 5-7 for their first losing season since ’04. Keenum’s return has me very excited for this year’s squad and 8 of my 9 sets of power ratings call for a double digit win season which will at least double LY’s 5 win total! Three of the 9 call for them to be 11-0 when they travel to Tulsa! UH is not only one of my Surprise Teams but also one of my favorite teams this year since I am the only publication that has them ranked in the top 25.

5. Georgia-South Carolina is the favorite to win the SEC East for a 2nd year in a row but both Athlon and myself project the Bulldogs to rebound from a losing season and capture the East in 2011. Last year was the Bulldogs’ first losing season since 1996. The Bulldogs did have 4 net close losses and are hoping that JUCO NT Jenkins (340 lbs) will have the same impact that NT Terrence Cody had for Alabama and that RB Crowell (PS#4) will have the same impact that Lattimore had for SC. I like the talent of this year’s squad and they have just 3 SEC road games which are vs the 3 SEC teams that finished with a losing records LY! They avoid LSU and Bama out of the West. This year they have a veteran QB, 14 ret st’rs and a much better schedule. LY they had close losses to SC and Fla but this time get SC at home and have a bye before the Gators. UGA also has my #1 rated ST unit. Mark Richt is a coach on the hot seat but has a talented team with a great schedule and will be the upset winner of the SEC East therefore making them one of my favorite teams for 2011.

6. Kansas St-I have the Wildcats tied for 6th in the Big 12 while every other publication has them projected 8th or 9th. KSU does have to play Texas Tech, Oklahoma St and Texas on the road but just like the old days coach Snyder has brought in a lot of JUCO’s as well as a couple of VHT transfers in RB Bryce Brown (PS#1) and MLB Arthur Brown (PS#5) who should make an immediate impact. This year’s squad is even more exp’d than last year’s which made it to a bowl game and with the influx of talent, the Cats will be back in the postseason.

7. UCLA-HC Rick Neuheisel is on the hot seat and must deliver this year. I think he will and I have the Bruins tied for 3rd in the Pac-12 South while all of my competitors have them projected to finish 5th or 6th in the division. The Bruins were just 4-8 LY and this year draw 5 Pac-12 road games and 2 potential Top 25 non-conference foes. They figure to be a dog in all 5 Pac-12 AG’s including Utah, which will be played in altitude and possible cold weather in November. I think this year’s Bruins’ squad will be much better than most folks anticipate (17 returning starters most in Pac-12) and if they receive better QB play (which I expect), it will make both their offense and defense stronger. The Bruins actually made my Most Improved List which means I expect to see them in the postseason and are one of my favorite teams.

8. Nevada-The WAC figures to be very competitive last year and according to the pre-season publications Hawaii is the favorite but I have the Wolf Pack as my WAC favorite. There is nowhere near the difference there has been in the past between the #1 and #8 team. Honestly, if Hawaii, Fresno, La Tech or Idaho had Nevada’s schedule, I would probably call for them to win the WAC this year but Nevada has an unbelievably beneficial WAC schedule. They take on the 3 bottom teams in the conference on the road and not only benefit from 4 WAC HG’s, but it’s they are against their 4 toughest foes and Nevada has a solid altitude advantage and will probably have a weather edge vs both warm-climate teams (Hawaii & La Tech) on B2B Saturdays in Nov. This is a team that would be a good-sized underdog to last year’s squad but with the schedule, they are my prohibitive favorite to win the WAC.

9. Colorado St-I have the Rams picked for 4th in the MWC while my competition has them 5th or lower. The Rams are off a pair of 3-9 seasons and last year were -86.1 ypg in MWC play. This year I feel they are one of the most improved teams in the country and they make my Most Improved List. This is HC Fairchild’s best team in his four years (including the ‘08 bowl team) as they have 14 returning starters and for the first time in his tenure return a starting QB. CSU gets a pivotal game vs SDSt at home which has me calling them for #4 in the MWC. They also get AF at home and could actually finish even higher in the MWC.

10. Pittsburgh-With the exception of the USA Today (USF) every other major publication has West Virginia picked for the Big East title while I have USF and Pittsburgh tied at the top. HC Todd Graham steps into a great situation. Pitt has my #1 rated defense in the league and Graham will get the most out of an offense that has talent. Pitt was +94.9 ypg in conf play (2nd best) and has one of the top 3 offenses in the Big East. Pitt has 4 BE HG’s including a Thursday nighter in Sept when they host USF. I am forecasting a tie for the BE Title but Pitt will hold the tie-breaker and that would put them into a BCS bowl making them one of my favorite teams in 2011.

11. Clemson-Like Neuheisel, Dabo Swinney is on the hot seat but only Lindy’s and I have the Tigers picked 2nd in the ACC Atlantic. Clemson is off a rare 6-7 losing season (first since 1998) and draws both VT and UNC out of the Coastal. They lose their top 2 defensive players including Da’Quan Bowers who had 15.5 sacks but brought in a great recruiting class and were actually better than their final record in ’10. They had 4 net close losses and could easily have won games LY vs Auburn, Miami, UNC and FSU. Clemson makes my Most Improved List and is one of my favorite teams.

12. Texas-A lot of people are down on Texas this year after last year’s 5-7 finish and I am the only magazine to have them ranked higher than 4th (tied for 3rd). Oklahoma took a step back in 2009 but rebounded to win the Big 12 in 2010. Texas took a major step back last year falling to a 5-7 record and naturally make my Most Improved List. While they have just 12 returning starters (tied fewest Big 12) they were -12 in TO’s last year and despite finishing last in the Big 12 South, were +53 ypg in the Big 12, which was 5th best. Keep in mind Colt McCoy had 18 int’s as a soph and rebounded for a big Jr year and whoever wins the Texas QB job should greatly cut down on the 17 int’s from LY. My talent ratings say Texas has the best def in the Big 12 and if they get adequate QB play, could end the season as a surprise Title contender.

13. Kent St- Kent St is a team that was better than its final record in most of HC Martin’s 7 yrs. They did not catch a lot of breaks. In the last 2 yrs they had a pair of 4-4 finishes in MAC play losing numerous close games. Hazell was pleased with the talent he inherited and Kent St also has a very manageable schedule and my #3 rated O-line and #1 rated D-line in the MAC. LY’s Miami team gives everyone hope as they went from 1-7 to 7-1 in MAC action. New HC Hazell will bring in the Ohio St wining attitude and they have a shot at getting to their first bowl S/’72.

14. Western Michigan- My main 2 sets of power ratings both call WM the top team in the MAC. While every other publications has the Broncos picked 2nd or worse, I have tied for 1st. Unfortunately the Broncos have to face both UT and NIU on the road. Last year they had a 24-11 FD edge vs Toledo and also had just 7 pts on four 2H drives inside the NIU15 giving the Huskies their closest conference game of the season. WM is one of the most improved teams in the country and while they have to face both Toledo and NIU on the road, they are actually capable of winning both games and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Cubit’s Broncos playing in the MAC Championship game.

15. Penn St-I am the only publication that has Penn St tied atop the Big 10 Leaders division with most having them 3rd behind Ohio St and Wisconsin. LY Penn St may have had one of HC Paterno’s youngest ever teams and this year they are a much more veteran unit with 14 ret st’rs and might be the most improved team in the Big Ten. There are still question marks at QB but if they get that situation worked out favorably, I look for PSU to open the Big Ten portion of their schedule at 6-0 but unfortunately their final 2 games are at Ohio St and at Wisconsin. A win at one of those 2 games would likely put Penn St into the first ever Big Ten Title game.

16. Rutgers-Most publications have the Scarlet Knight picked for 7th or 8th in the Big East but I have them tied for 6th. Thanks to a late season collapse last year, Rutgers finished last at -131.6 ypg in BE play and in ‘09 was -82.7 ypg which was the 2nd worst. While RU has 4 BE HG’s, unfortunately they are vs the top 4 teams in the league meaning their 3 winnable games vs the lower half of the conf are all on the road. I like this Rutgers team and their talent and my main set of power ratings calls them the 5th best team in the league. The schedule has me calling them 6th but this is a team clearly capable of surprising and has added a lot of talent this year.

17. San Jose St-Only the Sporting News and myself have the Spartans projected for 6th in the conference while the rest have them at 7th or 8th. I like what HC Mike MacIntyre is doing with the Spartans and they are in much better shape this year. LY they opened up vs Alabama, Wisconsin and Utah, 3 big, powerful teams that wore them down and helped cause them to have 78 starts lost to injury. They were still, however, very competitive in the 2H of the season and had losses in WAC play by 2, 4, 7 and 3 points and could have easily have won all 4 (4 net close losses, pg 299). My computer calls them the most improved team in the WAC and they have 18 returning starters (most in the WAC) and 4 WAC HG’s. While most of my power ratings call for a losing season, my main set calls for them to go 4-3 in WAC play despite having a 1-15 record in the WAC the last 2 years.

18. ULM-Only the Rogers poll and myself have the Warhawks projected for 3rd. Last year ULM had just 9 returning starters and was in the first year of a coaching change where the coach has to learn the players and the players have to learn the new system. They did catch some breaks and nearly got to bowl eligibility finishing 4-4 in the SBC (+16.8 ypg) and 5-7 overall. This year they have 17 starters back and are in the 2nd year of the new coach and get a favorable schedule with most of the key games at home. Their 13 lettermen lost are 2nd fewest in the SBC and they are a dark horse contender for the SBC Title.

19. Cincinnati-I have the Bearcats tied for 3rd in the Big East while the other publications have them either 4th or 5th. For a good portion of April I thought I was going to pick the Bearcats #1 in the Big East. They have a lot of factors pointing to improvement as they are in the 2nd yr under HC Butch Jones and teams show great improvement in year 2. They were -15 in TO’s last year. They went from a record of 23-4 in ‘08 and ‘09 to just 4-8 LY and despite their 2-5 Big East record LY were actually +36.4 ypg in conf play and that includes the final game of the season which they mailed in and were outgained by 165 yards (+70 ypg prior). They have 15 returning st’rs which is 2nd most in the BE and make my Most Improved List and my favorite teams list.

20. USC- Only Athlon and myself picked the Trojans first and even though I peg USC for 1st, the Trojans cannot play for the Pac-12 Title as they are in the 2nd year of their probation which also keeps them from a bowl. They can still win the Pac-12 South which should give them more motivation than they had LY. While this year’s team is young and they draw both Oregon and Stanford from the North as well as having to face Pac-12 South favorite ASU on the road, the Trojans have plenty of talent and despite just 62.9% returning lettermen, should finish at the top of the South.

21. Ole Miss-I am the only publication that picked the Rebels to finish of ahead of defending national champ Auburn. The Rebels were coming off finishes at #14 and #20 but LY did not go as expected for them as they finished last in the West at 1-7 and were -74.9 ypg. The Rebels’ 4 SEC HG’s this year are vs arguably the top 4 teams in the SEC meaning most of their winnable games are on the road. They have just 65.3% of their lettermen returning (#9 SEC) incl just 4 st’rs on D but Houston Nutt’s teams do very well when I put them on my Most Improved List and they find themselves in that spot this year and will pull some upsets.

Only 28 Days Until the First College Football Game!

Here are my top 25 2011 recruiting rankings. They take into account the strength of the Top 5 signees, the Top 10 signees and the average signing grade per player for the overall class. This list is not about the quantity of the freshmen signed but the overall quality of the class. Sometimes a team with a small class of just 15 players may rate higher than one with 30. (Keep in my mind these rankings could be tweaked by the time my magazine hits the newsstands in early June)

2011 Top 25 Frosh Recruiting Ratings

Top Classes By Conference

Here are some interesting notes on this year’s signing ratings. Alabama signed my #1 class for the second time in three years. They signed two of my PS#1 players in PS#1 OL Cyrus Kouandjio and PS#1DB Ha’sean Clinton-Dix. Texas despite all the coaching turnover signed another deep class and could have the biggest frosh impact player in PS#1RB Malcolm Brown who could fill the void of Texas’ recent RB struggles. FSU HC Jimbo Fisher has done a great job since taking over and not only had a successful season on the field but also signed one of the best classes with four of my top 50 players in the country. Despite being on probation, USC continued their recruiting dominance as they signed the top class in the Pac 10 for the 10th straight season and are led by PS#1WR George Farmer!!

Breaking down by conference, naturally the SEC led the way with 9 teams in my top 25 followed by 5 teams from the PAC-10. Also represented well were the ACC and Big 10 who each had 4 teams.  I will have a complete final rankings of teams 1-75 in a later blog this spring.

Obviously recruiting rankings are a good tool to predict a team’s future success, but are clearly just a part of a team’s success. A good example of this is Cincinnati who won back-to back Big East Titles in 2008-09 despite finishing no higher than 6th in conference or #62 nationally since 2005.

Over the weekend I released my projected preseason AP Top 10 and I thought I would analyze another set of rankings for the upcoming season. A couple of weeks ago, several casinos released their odds for the 2011-12 BCS National Championship. While PhilSteele.com does not affiliate itself with gambling, I do think it is interesting to see how Vegas is examining the upcoming season.

Here are the Top 10 Favorites to win the title this upcoming year courtesy of Bodog.com.

1. Oklahoma             Odds: 7/2

If you checked out my projected AP Top 10 blog, you would have read that the Sooners are clearly the favorite going into next season and the odds certainly agree here. They return 15 starters on off/def including QB Jones, WR Broyles and LB Lewis. Their schedule sets up nicely with a bye before their road trip to Florida St (a team they dominated LY 47-17). In Big 12 play naturally there is the Red River Rivalry game vs Texas who is coming off a 5-7 season and the only other huge hurdle could be the season finale at Oklahoma St but the Sooners have won the Bedlam rivalry 8 straight times and have an overall mark of 82-16-7 vs their in-state rivals.

2. Alabama             Odds: 15/2

The Crimson Tide were my projected AP #2 team for 2011. Despite the losses of QB McElroy, RB Ingram and WR Jones and DT/DE Dareus, the Tide return 15 starters including 9 from a defense that figures to be among the best in the country. While they do have road trips to Penn St, Florida and Auburn none of those teams figure to be in the preseason top 10 so they have a great opportunity of being favored in every game this season.

3. Florida St             Odds: 10/1

The Noles return 16 starters, bring in one of the best frosh classes in the country and should be the ACC favorites. However, their schedule is not soft by any means as they host pre-season favorite Oklahoma and travel to Florida in non-conf play and have to play ACC Atlantic foes Clemson and Boston College on the road.

4. Boise St             Odds: 12/1

The Broncos return 14 starters including QB Moore. While they do move to the MWC and open the season vs Georgia in Atlanta, the Broncos get defending MWC champ TCU at home (where they have not lost a reg ssn gm since 2001) also get defending CUSA champ Tulsa at home and will probably be favored to win 11 of their 12 games.

4. LSU              Odds: 12/1

The Tigers return 15 starters from a team that surprised many going 11-2 last year. While they open the season with a huge showdown vs Oregon in Arlington, the Tigers will probably be favored to win the rest of the games with the exception of a road trip to Alabama later in the season. Road trips to Mississippi St and West Virginia in September will be tricky as well.

6. Oregon            Odds: 14/1

This year the Ducks return just 11 starters on off/def but get QB Thomas and Doak Walker winner RB James back from a offense that avg’d 47 ppg. UO does have a monster non-conf game vs LSU in the opener and have road trips to Arizona, Washington and Stanford but still will be the preseason favorite to win the Pac-10 for a third straight season.

7. Florida            Odds: 15/1

This one is a bit of a surprise since the Gators are coming off just an 8-5 season and have a new HC in Will Muschamp. UF does return 13 starters and have a lot of talent on hand thanks to some outstanding recruiting. However, rheir three-game stretch to start off October is as challenging as team will face during any stretch. (Bama, at LSU, at Auburn).

8. Nebraska      Odds: 18/1

It will be an interesting year for the Huskers as they move to the Big 10. They do return just 12 starters from last year’s team that again came up just short of the Big 12 title. One of the starters back is QB Martinez. As far as their schedule goes, the conference did them no favors with road games at Wisconsin, Penn St and Michigan along with home games vs Ohio St and Michigan.

9.  Penn St            Odds: 20/1

Another interesting pick here as the Nittany Lions are coming off just a 7-6 season. They do return 15 starters and their QB situation should be in much better shape this year. Home games vs Alabama and Iowa are their biggest tests before a 3 game stretch to close the season vs Nebraska, at Ohio St and at Wisconsin.

10. TCU            Odds: 20/1

The Horned Frogs are here naturally because of their great success over the past several seasons but they do return just 8 starters on off/def and lose their leader in QB Andy Dalton. Their schedule is not yet finalized as they are missing a couple of non-conf games but their biggest test looks to be a road game at Boise.

Here are some other odds:

Well here it is, my projected AP Top 10 for next year as of February 11, 2011! I will mention it now and I will mention it numerous times throughout today’s blog but this is not MY preseason Top 10 for next year, it is where I project the AP Top 10 to come out at the start of the season.

Most AP voters usually look at a couple of criteria when they evaluate a team for the upcoming season. First they look at the number of returning starters that the team has coming back particularly at the offensive skill positions. A team that returns its starting QB and a combination of its RB and WRs is often times more highly thought of than a team that loses its starting QB but returns its entire offensive line. Similarly a team that returns most of its starters on offense but loses a lot of its defensive playmakers usually is more highly thought of than a team that returns a majority of its defensive starters but loses its skill position players on offense.

Another factor that is heavily weighted is the performance of the team in the bowl game, which undoubtedly is the lasting image of that team in the offseason. A team coming off a huge bowl win usually is more highly thought of than a team that is coming off a bowl loss regardless of what their schedule looks like for the upcoming season.

Using these criteria and a few more, I project the preseason AP Top 10 every year at the conclusion of the previous season, which in most cases is nearly 6 months in advance. Now as you all know, a lot can happen from January to August including injuries, suspensions, transfers, etc.

In 2009, my projected Top 10 for the AP Poll was #1 Florida, #2 Texas, #3 USC, #4 Oklahoma, #5 Alabama, #6 Virginia Tech, #7 LSU, #8 Oklahoma St, #9 Ohio St and #10 Mississippi. The actual AP Top 10 was #1 Florida, #2 Texas, #3 Oklahoma, #4 USC, #5 Alabama, #6 Ohio St, #7 Virginia Tech, #8 Mississippi and #9 was a tie between Oklahoma St/Penn St.

I nailed nine of the ten teams that appeared in the Preseason Top 10 with the only exception being LSU/Penn St and I may have had something to do with that. It’s interesting to note that of the main preseason magazines, only two had Penn St ranked in the Top 10 and I had them my #1 surprise team and ranked #5. Most had Penn St out of the Top 10. Perhaps since I had them rated so high in my magazine, it influenced a few voters across the country, bumping them into the Top 10.

Last year I projected the preseason AP Top 10 would be #1 Alabama, #2 Ohio St, #3 Boise St, #4 Oregon, #5 Texas, #6 TCU, #7 Iowa, #8 Florida, #9 Nebraska and #10 Virginia Tech.

The actual AP Top 10 was #1 Alabama, #2 Ohio St, #3 Boise St, #4 Florida, #5 Texas, #6 TCU, #7 Oklahoma, #8 Nebraska, #9 Iowa and #10 Virginia Tech.

For the second year in a row I nailed nine of the ten teams that appeared in the Preseason Top 10 with the only exception being Oregon/Oklahoma, which I can defend easily.

First, at the time I wrote my projection back in early February Duck QB Jeremiah Masoli was not yet suspended. With Masoli still in the fold at that point Oregon had 17 returning starters including RB LaMichael James and Masoli in the backfield. The Ducks clearly would have been a preseason Top 10 team and probably Top 5 had Masoli not been kicked off the team. Even without Masoli Oregon was still rated #11 in the preseason poll.

The team that I did not have in my projected AP Top 10 was Oklahoma (#7) and if you have purchased last year’s magazine or listed to one of my radio shows across the country you know I thought very highly of the Sooners as I had them ranked #1. Like Penn St last year perhaps since I had them rated so high in my magazine, it influenced a few voters across the country, bumping them into the Top 10 despite the Sooners having five losses in 2009 and the fact that they did not even finish in the final AP Top 25.

I also am pleased that six of the 10 teams were ranked in the exact position that I projected including the top 3 in Alabama, Ohio St and Boise St. I also had Texas, TCU and Virginia Tech ranked in their exact positions in the poll.
Now let’s take a look at this year’s projected Preseason AP Top 10:

#10 SOUTH CAROLINA-Last year the Gamecocks returned 16 starters (#2 SEC) and had only 11 lettermen lost. They also signed one of the best frosh classes ever which included my PS#1 RB Marcus Lattimore. In my magazine I said that SC was a legit SEC contender and they even made my list of Surprise Teams (darkhorse national title contender).  They didn’t disappoint beating #1 defending champ Alabama at home and getting a key win on the road vs Florida as SC made their first appearance in the SEC Champ game. They did finish the season with consecutive losses but this year return 7 starters on offense including QB Garcia and RB Lattimore and figure to be the favorites to repeat as SEC East Division champs.

#9 OKLAHOMA ST-Last year the Cowboys were one of the least experienced teams in the entire country coming into the season with just 8 returning starters. However, HC Gundy did an outstanding job leading them to their most wins in a season in school history and this year despite the loss of OC Holgorsen and RB Hunter, the Cowboys return 9 starters including QB Weeden and Biletnikoff winner Blackmon from an offense that avg’d 44 ppg. The Cowboys do have tough road games at Texas A&M, Texas, Texas Tech and Missouri and that is why they will not be ranked even higher in the preseason AP Poll.
#8 FLORIDA ST-HC Fisher inherited a good situation last year as they were loaded on offense with 9 returning starters and they got most of their toughest ACC foes at home. 7 of my 9 sets of power ratings called for their first double digit win season since 2003 and they did just that beating in-state rival Florida, getting to the ACC champ game and then beating South Carolina in the bowl game. This year they return 16 starters, bring in one of the best frosh classes in the country and should be the ACC favorites.

#7 BOISE ST-Last year the Broncos were one of the most experienced teams in the country with 20 returning starters and started out #3 in the AP Poll. A win over Virginia Tech in the opener had them thinking national title but a heartbreaking loss to Nevada in OT late in the year cost them a BCS Bid. Nonetheless they still won 12+ games for the third year in a row and this year return 14 starters including QB Moore. While they do move to the MWC and open the season vs Georgia in Atlanta, the Broncos get defending MWC champ TCU at home (where they have not lost a reg ssn gm since 2001) and will probably be favored to win 11 of their 12 games.

#6 TEXAS A&M-Last year I thought the Aggies were a much stronger team than their previous seasons and they made my Most Improved List. After struggling to a 3-3 start HC Sherman made the bold move to bench QB Johnson for backup Tannehill and the Aggies preceded to roll off 6 straight wins including wins over Big 12 powers Oklahoma, Nebraska and Texas en route to only their second 9 win season since 2000. This year they bring back 17 starters on off/def including Tannehill and get Oklahoma St, Missouri and Texas at home.

#5 STANFORD-Last year 3 of my 9 sets of power ratings called for an 11-1 season and after my magazine was published in May, the Cardinal were one of the teams that I thought probably should have been higher in my ratings in my mag come late August. Led by QB Luck, the Cardinal simply went out and had one of their best seasons in school history finishing 12-1 with a dominating win over Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl. This year the Cardinal lose HC Harbaugh to the 49ers but will still be a AP top 5 pick because Luck surprisingly decided to come back for another year and he is probably not only one of the Heisman favorites but also the top NFL prospect in college this year.

#4 LSU-Last year the Tigers returned just 10 starters but surprised many finishing the season 11-2 with a dominating win over Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl. This year they return 8 starters from an offense that avg’d 30 ppg including QB Jefferson who improved his play down the stretch. While they open the season with a huge showdown vs Oregon in Arlington, the Tigers will probably be favored to win the rest of the games with the exception of a road trip to Alabama later in the season.

#3 OREGON-Last year 8 of my 9 sets of power ratings called the Ducks the best team in the Pac-10 and they didn’t disappoint running through their regular season a perfect 12-0 before losing a heartbreaker in the national title game to Auburn. This year the Ducks return just 11 starters on off/def but get QB Thomas and Doak Walker winner RB James back from a offense that avg’d 47 ppg. UO does have a monster non-conf game vs LSU in the opener and have road trips to Arizona, Washington and Stanford but still will be the preseason favorite to win the Pac-10 for a third straight season.

#2 ALABAMA-Last year the Crimson Tide were coming off B2B 12-0 regular seasons and anything less than a repeat national title was going to be a disappointment. While the Tide did finish just 10-3, when they were playing their “A” game as evidence of the 1H of the Auburn game and the Capital One bowl vs 11-1 Michigan St, they were clearly one of the best teams in the country. This year despite the losses of QB McElroy, RB Ingram and WR Jones, the Tide return 15 starters including 9 from a defense that figures to be among the best in the country. While they do have road trips to Penn St, Florida and Auburn none of those teams figure to be in the preseason top 10 so they have a great opportunity of being favored in every game this season.

#1 OKLAHOMA-Last year I surprised many by ranking the Sooners as my #1 team in my pre-season magazine despite coming off a 5-loss season in 2009. While they did not win the national title, the Sooners did go 12-2 winning the Big 12 title and dominated UConn in the Fiesta Bowl. This year OU will be ranked #1 in the pre-season by nearly everyone as they return 15 starters on off/def including QB Jones, WR Broyles and LB Lewis. Their schedule sets up nicely with a bye before their road trip to Florida St (a team they dominated LY 47-17). In Big 12 play naturally there is the Red River Rivalry game vs Texas who is coming off a 5-7 season and the only other huge hurdle could be the season finale at Oklahoma St but the Sooners have won the Bedlam rivalry 8 straight times and have an overall mark of 82-16-7 vs their in-state rivals. With their key returning starters back and a favorable schedule, the Sooners should get the nod as the Preseason AP #1 team!

THOSE THAT JUST MISSED OUT:

I mentioned at the start of the blog that last year I had nine of the top 10 teams correctly predicted and it was the same case in 2009 where I also missed out by 1. If one of the team’s I have projected in the Top 10 doesn’t make the polls, there are 4 teams that have a shot at jumping into the Top 10.

Right now, I would project Ohio State to be #11 heading into the season and the only reason they are this low is the fact that several of their key players including QB Pryor and their top RB and WR will miss the first 5 games. Also their first game back is a road trip to Nebraska but I still feel with their strong finish to the 2010 season and the fact that they have won or shared 6 straight Big 10 titles will get them the nod over the Cornhuskers.

At #12 in the AP poll should be Nebraska who returns QB Martinez and 7 starters on defense. Nebraska would have been higher but there has been some turmoil already this past off-season and they were unimpressive in their bowl game.

The rest of the teams are #13 Arkansas and #14 Wisconsin.

There you have it – My projections for the AP Preseason Top 10. As mentioned a couple of times in this article, these WILL NOT BE THE TOP 10 IN MY MAGAZINE. As you know, I tend to go out on a limb in a lot of cases and have a lot of surprise picks in my magazine. Those will be unveiled at the start of June when my magazine hits the newsstands but when the first AP poll comes out in August this year, go ahead and take this list and compare it and you’ll find that probably 9 or maybe even all 10 will be in the Preseason AP Top 10 this year.

We have already been working hard on the 2011 season and Today’s blog is the current list for Returning Starters for each team in 2011 broken down by offense, defense and special teams (kicker/punter). The * on the offense number denotes that the starting QB is returning. Below the list I broke down teams with the most/least returning starters.

I will be back later this week with all the Senior Bowl/Pro Bowl coverage you need to prepare you for this weekend’s games. On Monday I will expand on the Las Vegas odds to win the 2011 BCS National Championship and give you a breakdown of each of the 50 teams including key starters back/lost.

Returning Starters for 2011

As of right now new Vanderbilt HC James Franklin will be inheriting one of the most experienced teams in the country with a total of the 21 of the 24 players back for this season including all 11 starters on offense. They will be led on offense by all-purpose RB Warren Norman and on defense LB Chris Marve returns after posting 80 tkls a year ago.

New Michigan HC Brady Hoke also inherits one of the more experienced teams in the country with the Wolverines returning 20 starters led by All-American candidate Robinson at QB. It will be interesting to see how the Wolverine players adapt to the new schemes on both sides of the ball.

Texas A&M seems to be a contender to be ranked in the pre-season top 10 next year and they return 19 starters including QB Tannehill who did a fantastic job being called on this year when Johnson was struggling. On defense the Aggies return 8 starters but do lose their leader in OLB Von Miller.

Despite losing RB Ingram, WR Jones and DE Dareus to the NFL draft early, the Crimson Tide still return 17 starters including 9 on what could be the best defense in the country next season led by FS Mark Barron.

On the opposite end is the defending national champion Auburn Tigers who return only 7 starters next year which is an incredible 3 fewer than any other team. Naturally the loss of Newton and Fairley will hurt and you have to think they will find it tough getting to double digit wins but Chizik has out-performed expectations to date.

Rose Bowl Champ TCU also will suffer heavy losses with just 10 starters back next season. Losing their leader on offense in Andy Dalton will hurt but Tank Carder returns on defense. While the Horned Frogs should still get to the 10 win mark, you have to think another 12-0 regular season will be out of their reach with the key losses.

Happy New Year!!!

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1. Baylor had their most lopsided conference win in it’s history with a 55-7 win over Kansas. QB Griffin threw for a career-high 380 yards as the Bears rolled up a 678-270 yd edge and move one step closer to getting their first bowl bid since 1994.

2. The Ducks were down 21-3 early to Stanford but then outscored the Cardinal 49-10 in the last 2+ quarters cementing themselves as the #3 team in the country with the new polls. Oregon rolled up 625 yds of offense and were led by RB James 257 rush yds and QB Thomas threw for 237 more.

3. Boise St has to win impressively each and every week and that still might not be enough as they beat New Mexico St 59-0 but fell one spot in the polls/ The Broncos did roll up 609 yds of offense compared to just 207 for the Aggies.

4. The Crimson Tide were very impressive early in jumping out to a 24-3 over the Gators. However the score was a little closer than it appeared as UF actually outgained them but three trips inside the Alabama 10 yd line netted zero points. Nonetheless, anytime you beat the #7 team in the country by 25 points you are going to get mentioned as a top performance.

5. TCU did not get off to a great start vs Colorado St as they only led 6-0 at HT. In the 2H they were dominant and finished the game with a 474-161 yd edge in the 27-0 win.

6. Miami playing in their 3rd str away game (haven’t played a home game since Sept. 2!) was impressive with a 30-21 win over Clemson. QB Harris threw four touchdown passes as Miami led 27-14 at HT and it could have been worse as Harris threw two key interceptions deep in Clemson territory.

7. Oklahoma broke their 2 game losing streak in the Red River Rivalry with a 28-20 win over Texas. They did stay true to a reocurring them all season as they build up double digit leads in the 2H only to make things interesting late.

8. The Hawkeyes were dominant early in the game against the Nittany Lions and put it on cruise control late in the 24-3 win. It was their 8th win in the last 9 meetings vs Penn St.

1. Nebraska overwhelmed Washington with a 534-246 yd edge in their 56-21 win. Husker QB Martinez was the story as he ran for 137 yds (7.2) and three TD’s including the longest TD run by a freshman in Nebraska history (80 yds) and threw for another 150 yards (63.6%) and a score.

2. Boise St-The Broncos need to impress the voters each and every week if they want to remain in the top 3. Yesterday they did just that with a dominating 50-6 win at Wyoming as they had an incredible 647-136 yd edge. Boise held Wyoming to -22 yds rushing and welcome a visit from ESPN College Gameday this week as they host Oregon St.

3. Alabama-The Tide welcomed the return of Heisman winner Mark Ingram and he was impressive with 152 yds on just 9 carries (16.9) and 2 TD’s as they crushed Duke 62-13. Bama was incredibly balanced on offense with 315 yds rushing and 312 yds passing.

4. Oregon-The Ducks have already had 3 great performances on the season and yesterday they crushed FCS Portland St 69-0. Oregon’s avg MOV this year is 63-4 and yesterday they outgained their opponent by 524 yds.

5. TCU-The Horned Frog defense was one of my defenses of the week and they came thru for me by holding down Baylor QB Griffin and the Bears to just 10 pts and 263 yds. TCU QB Dalton was pin-point accurate as he completed his first 11 passes and finished 21-for-23 for 267 yards and two TD’s. His 91.3 completion percentage tied Sam Bradford and Jared Zambransky for the highest by an FBS passer in a single game (min. 20 attempts) since 2004.

6. Stanford-The Cardinal have been very impressive so far this season and last night was no different as they crushed Wake Forest 68-24 as they rolled up 535 total yds. They will put their high ranking to test this week as they travel to Notre Dame who is in must-win mode after dropping two straight to Michigan and Michigan St.

7. Oklahoma St-So far HC Mike Gundy’s move to bring in former Houston OC Dana Holgorsen looks bold as the Cowboys offense continues to roll with an outstanding 722 yds of offense in the 65-28 win over Tulsa.

8. Ohio St-The Buckeyes jumped out early over Ohio (33-0 in the 2Q) before coasting late in the 43-7 win. Ohio St’s defense was another one of my top defenses of the week in my fantasy blog and they came thru holding the Bobcats to just 161 total yds.

9. Air Force-The Falcons off a 35-14 win over BYU last week nearly beat Oklahoma yesterday as the Sooners almost blew a 27-10 lead as they allowed a couple of TD’s in the 4Q. Air Force’s vaunted option gave the Sooner D all they can handle as they rolled up 343 rush yds and actually outgained Oklahoma 450-387.

10. Texas-The Longhorns got payback for their last visit to Lubbock as they beat Texas Tech 24-14. Their defense was the story as they held the high-powered Red Raider offense to just 176 total yds.