The AP Poll was released over the weekend and today I can officially come up with Overrated and Underrated teams for the upcoming year.
First, here is the Preseason AP Top 25.
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1
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Oklahoma (36) |
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2
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Alabama (17) |
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3
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Oregon (4) |
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4
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LSU (1) |
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5
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Boise St (2) |
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6
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Florida St |
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7
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Stanford |
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8
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Texas A&M |
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9
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Oklahoma St |
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10
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Nebraska |
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11
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Wisconsin |
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12
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South Carolina |
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13
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Virginia Tech |
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14
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TCU |
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15
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Arkansas |
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16
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Notre Dame |
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17
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Michigan St |
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18
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Ohio St |
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19
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Georgia |
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20
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Mississippi St |
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21
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Missouri |
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22
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Florida |
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23
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Auburn |
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24
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West Virginia |
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25
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USC |
Overrated Teams
#23 Auburn-There are several signs pointing downward for last year’s defending champ. This year they lose the best offensive player in the NCAA in Heisman winner QB Cam Newton as well as arguably the best defensive player in DT Nick Fairley. Auburn also benefited from an amazing 7 net close wins and naturally the schedule gets tougher with road games vs Clemson, South Carolina, Arkansas, LSU and Georgia. They lose an incredible 31 lettermen and return just 6 starters (fewest in the country). Last year I had Texas as my #1 overrated team (preseason AP #5) and they went from the National Title game to 5-7 and Auburn will have to have some talented youngsters grow up quickly to avoid a similar fate
#22 Florida-After an 8-5 season (NR) former head coach Meyer stepped down due to health concerns and they bring a new HC in Muschamp who has no previous HC experience and just 10 returning starters. The Gators have just 3 SEC HG’s and play South Carolina and UGA away from home and pull the top two teams (Bama and LSU) out of the West. I think UF may have a tough time topping last year’s 8 wins and will not finish in the AP Top 25 at the end of the year.
#9 Oklahoma St-Last year I took a lot of flack for picking the Cowboys last in the Big 12 South but nearly every magazine picked them 5th or 6th as they were one of the more inexperienced teams in the country. Naturally they went on to a great season with their first 11-win season in school history. This year they return 2 of their 3 “triplets” in Weeden and Blackmon but OSU loses OC Holgorsen and RB Hunter from an off avg 44.2 ppg, which was their best since 1988. OSU was also +12 in TO’s, has five Big 12 away games (incl at Texas A&M, Texas, Missouri, and Texas Tech) and only had 2 starts lost to injury last year. They do get Oklahoma at home again this year but were outgained by 209 yds to the Sooners last year. There is no question that the Cowboys are very talented but because of having such a tough B12 schedule I do not have them in my Top 15. Read more…
Categories: Offseason Notes Tags: 2011, ap poll, Auburn, blog, Clemson, college football, florida, Houston, Notre Dame, Ohio, Oklahoma St, Overrated, phil steele, Southern Miss, Stanford, teams, Texas, Underrated, USC, USF, Virginia Tech
The AP Poll was released over the weekend and today I can officially come up with Overrated and Underrated teams for the upcoming year.
First, here is the Preseason AP Top 25. Read more…
Categories: Offseason Notes Tags: ap poll, Arizona, Auburn, blog, college football, Georgia Tech, Houston, LSU, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Overrated, phil steele, Pittsburgh, South Carolina, Texas, Underrated, wisconsin
At the end of the 2008 season we devised a formula which plugged in the stats from the just completed season and then factored in the opponents and the site the game was played at and came up with an individual team power rating for each game. I was very pleased that the formula did indeed assign a true power rating for each game and it was highly accurate.
In the weekend blog, I gave you the top 15 individual “game grade” performances from 2009. Today I will give you the teams with the highest game grade averages from last year, which make up my computer’s final Top Ten and compare it to the AP Final Top Ten.
First here is the final AP Top Ten from last year. Read more…
Categories: Offseason Notes Tags: Alabama, ap poll, Avg, Boise St, Cincinnati, college football, Computer Poll, florida, Game Grade, Georgia, Iowa, Louisville, LSU, Michigan, Nebraska, Ohio St, Oklahoma, Oregon, Penn St, phil steele, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech, Virginia Tech
Every week we will post my Forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game.
So far this year the Top 25 Forecasts have gone 144-36 80% picking the winners of each game. That record may sound great, but do keep in mind most games have involved teams that were big favorites so the majority of people will have a solid record on these games as well. On the bottom of the forecast, I have listed some Upset Specials which have pulled the upset 11 out of 22 times with Rutgers getting the upset last week over Connecticut. Combined the first nine weeks record is 155-47 77%!!
Categories: Top 25 Games Tags: acc, ap poll, big 10, big 12, big east, college football, conference usa, fbs, mac, MAC confererence, mwc, pac 10, phil steele, polls, SEC, top 25, upsets, wac
Every week we will post my Forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game.
So far this year the Top 25 Forecasts have gone 111-28 80% picking the winners of each game. That record may sound great, but do keep in mind most games have involved teams that were big favorites so the majority of people will have a solid record on these games as well. On the bottom of the forecast, I have listed some Upset Specials which have pulled the upset 8 out of 19 times. Combined the first seven weeks record is 122-42 74%!!
Let’s get to my Top 25 Forecasts!
Categories: Top 25 Games Tags: acc, ap poll, big 10, big 12, big east, college football, conference usa, Fantasy College Football, fbs, mac, MAC confererence, mwc, pac 10, phil steele, SEC, top 25, upsets, wac
Every week we will post my Forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game.
So far this year the Top 25 Forecasts have gone 84-20 81% picking the winners of each game. That record may sound great, but do keep in mind most games have involved teams that were big favorites so the majority of people will have a solid record on these games as well. On the bottom of the forecast, I have listed some Upset Specials which have pulled the upset 8 out of 14 times. Combined the first five weeks record is 95-29 77%!!
Let’s get to my Top 25 Forecasts!
Categories: Top 25 Games Tags: acc, ap poll, big 10, big 12, big east, college football, conference usa, Fantasy College Football, fbs, FCS, mac, MAC confererence, mwc, pac 10, phil steele, polls, SEC, top 25, wac
Every week we will post my Forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game.
So far this year the Top 25 Forecasts have gone 71-16 82% picking the winners of each game. That record may sound great, but do keep in mind most games have involved teams that were big favorites so the majority of people will have a solid record on these games as well. On the bottom of the forecast, I have listed some Upset Specials which have pulled the upset 5 out of 11 times including Marshall last week. Combined the first four weeks record is 76-22 78%!!
Read more…
Categories: Top 25 Games Tags: acc, ap poll, big 10, big 12, big east, college football, conference usa, fbs, mac, mwc, pac 10, SEC, top 25, upsets, wac
In some of my daily blogs this summer I have gone over the top team team individual game efforts for 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005 and 2004.
I then went over the Top Ten in the AP poll and the Top Ten of my computers average of the season individual games rating. The results basicially showed that if a team was in the Top Ten of the AP but not in my computers Top Ten at the end of the year, they were overrated and almost everytime finished lower in the polls than they began the season with most teams opening the year ranked and finished outside the rankings.
Read more…
