The AP Poll was released over the weekend and today I can officially come up with Overrated and Underrated teams for the upcoming year.

First, here is the Preseason AP Top 25.

Overrated Teams

#5 Texas-I think the Top 10 is reasonably legitimate and the Longhorns are once again one of the most talented teams in the country and they have my #1 defense. They do face my #5 team Nebraska in Lincoln and my #1 team Oklahoma in Dallas, but will be a solid favorite in all of the rest of their games. They do lose a 4-year starting QB in Colt McCoy, their top WR in Jordan Shipley and have not really had a feature RB since Jamaal Charles (’07), so there are some questions on offense. While I think it will be another solid season for the Longhorns I think a Top 5 finish as projected by the AP is a bit of a reach this year.

#12 Wisconsin-The Badgers are coming off a 10-win season and are a much more veteran team this year. Many of my sets of power ratings have them slightly ahead of Iowa but they have to play the Hawkeyes on the road and get #2 Ohio St at home. They do avoid Penn St but the Michigan and Michigan St road trips will be much tougher than most suspect. While 5 of my 9 sets of ratings call for a double digit win season, I think another Top 15 ranking will be tough to duplicate.

#15 Pittsburgh-When I list my rankings in the magazine, they are my end of season rankings and I have Pittsburgh #27. I do have the Panthers winning the Big East title by beating West Virginia at home which would give them the tie-breaker. However, they have just 11 returning starters and have to face Utah and Notre Dame on the road and Miami, Fl at home in non-conference play. By winning the conference, I have them playing in the Fiesta Bowl against Nebraska, but I think the Panthers could have four losses at the end of the year.

#16 Georgia Tech-Paul Johnson is a great coach and last year I undervalued the Yellow Jackets and paid the price as they not only won the Coastal, but won the ACC Title outright. This year they have to play Clemson, Virginia Tech, North Carolina and Georgia all on the road and Miami at home in which the Yellow Jackets could be a underdog in each game. Despite the tough schedule, they have 14 returning starters and could make me pay again for picking them 4th in the Coastal this year.

#21 LSU-The talent is there for LSU to contend for the SEC West Title and even knock off Alabama at home. They do have to play SIX teams in my Top 25 (#10 schedule) and only have 10 returning starters. Keep in my mind LY they went 9-4 but were outgained on the year 328-305. This is a talented squad with my #19 rated defense and a lot of VHT’s on offense but with the schedule they could find it tough matching last year’s 9 regular season wins and could finish out of the Top 25 for the second time in 3 years.

Underrated Teams

#7 Oklahoma-The last time the Sooners came off a 5 loss season was 2000 which is the last time they won the National Title!  While they lost 7 players to the draft including four 1st-rounders, two of the top draftees (Bradford and Gresham) did not really play. Last year despite their 5-3 Big 12 record, the Sooners’ +133 ypg was the league’s best. They also had 42 starts lost to injury (tied #3 FBS) and had 3 net close losses. This year they are in much better shape on the offensive line, QB Landry Jones has a year under his belt and all 9 sets of my power ratings call for an unbeaten season. With all these factors added up, the Sooners are my pick to win the National Title in 2010!

#22 Auburn-Many Auburn fans were not happy when HC Gene Chizik was hired (just 5-19 at Iowa St) but I thought he did a solid job here last year guiding the Tigers to a 8-5 record including a New Year’s Day Bowl win. This year Auburn has 15 returning starters and are in the second year of Chizik’s system. The schedule also sets up nicely for them as they get 4 key SEC games at home and my main set of power ratings calls for an 11-1 season with an 11-0 vs 11-0 showdown vs Alabama in the Iron Bowl. The Tigers will easily top LY’s 8 win total and I have them finishing #15.

Notre Dame-HC Brian Kelly gets the most out of the talent on hand and he is the first coach in the history of my magazine to have his team finish higher than I projected them in SIX straight years (including 3 conference titles). He inherits a lot of talent here with 14 returning starters including All-American candidates WR Floyd and TE Rudolph. He does have a new QB in Crist but remember Kelly won a BE title with 5 different QBs in 2008. I feel the Irish have clearly underachieved the last 3 seasons and I think they could be in store for 9 wins or more this year.

South Carolina-This could finally be the year Steve Spurrier envisioned when he came to Columbia. The Gamecocks have 16 returning starters and are one of the top teams in the SEC. They have my #3 rated defense and lose just 11 letterman. This year they do have to play Florida on the road and draw Alabama from the West but it would not surprise me if Spurrier had the team in the SEC Title game this year despite facing the 2nd toughest schedule in the country.

Houston-They Cougars have one of the best offenses in the country with QB Case Keenum, three 1,000 yd receivers and RB Beall who has nearly 2,000 yds in his 1st two seasons. Houston also should have an improved defense this year with 6 starters back including three of the top 4 returning tacklers. Not only are the Cougars my pick for the CUSA title, but 2 of my 9 sets of power ratings call for an undefeated season with winnable road games at UCLA and Texas Tech.

Arizona-My magazine is the only one in the country to have the Wildcats in the Top 25 and they are a legitimate Pac-10 title contender. Arizona could have easily won the conference title last year but had a pair of 3 pt losses and came up just short. While they only have 4 starters back on defense, they only lose 17 letterman and will have a potent offense. They get 5 Pac-10 home games and a road trip to Washington St. I will call for them to have their most wins since 1998 and have a shot at their 1st ever Rose bowl which would make a great story.

Only 9 Days Until The First College Football Game!!!

At the end of the 2008 season we devised a formula which plugged in the stats from the just completed season and then factored in the opponents and the site the game was played at and came up with an individual team power rating for each game. I was very pleased that the formula did indeed assign a true power rating for each game and it was highly accurate.

In the weekend blog, I gave you the top 15 individual “game grade” performances from 2009. Today I will give you the teams with the highest game grade averages from last year, which make up my computer’s final Top Ten and compare it to the AP Final Top Ten.

First here is the final AP Top Ten from last year.

1. Alabama
2. Texas
3. Florida
4. Boise St
5. Ohio St
6. TCU
7. Iowa
8. Cincinnati
9. Penn St
10. Virginia Tech

Now here is my Computer’s Final Top Ten from last year.

1. Alabama 96.2 avg
2. Florida 96.0
3. Texas 95.7
4. TCU 92.4
5. Oklahoma 91.2
6. Virginia Tech 88.3
7. Ohio St 86.0
8. Oregon 85.2
9. Texas Tech 84.8
10. Nebraska 84.5

As you can see there are some differences between the polls. Naturally, Alabama was at the top of both polls. My computer had Florida barely ahead of Texas because the Gators schedule was slightly tougher and they outgained opponents by 205 ypg while Texas outgained their foes by 169 ypg. Despite the loss in the Fiesta Bowl, TCU comes in at #4 thanks to their dominating 12-0 regular season that saw the Horned Frogs outgain foes by 217 ypg! Oklahoma is another surprise here coming in at #5 despite their 5 losses. The Sooners lost 4 games by less than a TD and their +133 ypg in conference play was actually the best in the Big 12. Oregon finished just outside the AP Top Ten at #11 while my computer had them at #8 so there was not much of a difference there. Also Texas Tech and Nebraska appear in my computer’s Top Ten while AP #8 Cincinnati (#23 in my computer poll) and AP #9 Penn St (#14) were left out.

Now before Boise, Cincinnati and Iowa fans start to get riled up with these rankings remember this is my computer’s poll and not the way I would have voted the Final AP poll if I was indeed an AP voter. However, due to past research on comparing my computer poll with the AP poll there is a significant trend with how teams do the next year. Teams that are in the AP Final Top Ten but not in my computers are generally overrated the next year while teams that are in my computer’s Top Ten but not in the AP are underrated.

Let’s take a look at several examples.

In 2004, Iowa finished 10-2 and were ranked #8 in the final AP poll but were just #21 in my computer’s final grades. In 2005, Iowa opened up #11 in the AP poll and they went 7-5 and finished out of the rankings. On the opposite end in 2004, LSU did not finish in the AP Top Ten but my computer had them #8. The next year these “underrated” Tigers finished #6 in the country after their thrashing of #9 Miami Florida 40-3 in the bowl.

In 2005, Alabama was 10-2 and finished with a bowl win over Texas Tech and were #8 in the AP poll. They took on my #55 rated schedule and only averaged 21.9 ppg on offense. My computer did not even have them in the top 15. The next year Alabama finished 6-7 and fired HC Shula.

Also in 2005, Louisville was #19 in the AP poll (#8 in my computer) but were actually the most dominant team in the Big East and would have been in the Sugar Bowl if not for a blown lead at West Virginia. The next year Louisville went 12-1 and their only loss was at Rutgers, a game UL actually led 25-7 but lost on a last second FG. Change one play in that game and Louisville would have played Ohio St in the national title game in 2006! The other team not in the AP Top Ten was Michigan (computer #9), which finished 2005 at just 7-5. Michigan took on the 2nd toughest schedule in the country in 2005 and had losses by 7, 3, 3, 4 and 4! The next year (2006) Michigan was 11-0 and #2 in the country when they played #1 Ohio State in Columbus and after losing that game by just 3, many felt they should have played Ohio State in the title game rather than Florida!

In 2006, despite Florida winning the National Title and playing the best game of the year in the biggest game, they were not the best team over the entire course of the season (Computer #4). LSU had a 22-14 FD edge vs them but the Gators won thanks to being +3 in turnovers. Alabama had a couple of late TO’s and lost a late lead. Florida blocked 2 FG’s and a crucial xp to get past South Carolina by 1 point! I got beat up by Gator fans when I had them ranked out of the Top 10 (#14) in the 2007 preseason poll (lower than everyone else) and the Gators finished 2007 at #13. My computer also did not have Boise St in the Top 10 despite their upset of Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl and in 2007 Boise finished unranked.

On the other side, Oklahoma was not in the AP Top 10 at the end of the year but was #8 in my computer’s ranking. In ’07, they won the Big 12 and were #3 at the end of the regular season. My Computer’s #1 team in 2006 was LSU (which was only #3 in the AP poll). How did they fare in 2007? They would “only” go on to win the National Title!

Oregon, Florida and Texas Tech were three 4-loss teams in 2007 that my computer said were Top Ten teams despite their record. How did the “top ten party crashers” (on my computers Top Ten but not in the AP poll) do in 2008? Florida won the national title, Texas Tech was 10-0 and #2 in the country at one point and Oregon finished the year #10 in the final polls.

There were three teams in the AP Top Ten at the end of 2007 that my computer did not have as Top Ten squads. Georgia finished the 2007 season #2 in the final polls but my computer only had them #15 at the end of the year with a 84.7 average game. Only once in 2007 did they even play at over a 100 level and that was a 102.85 effort vs Auburn. They had a 61.05 game in their 35-14 loss to Tennessee and a 78.65 game the next week barely getting past Vanderbilt 20-17 (thanks to a late Vandy fumble). Based on the final record and final game performance they were #2 in the AP in 2007 and #1 in the AP poll in the preseason of 2008. Georgia proved they were overrated in 2008 by finishing #16.

Will those trends continue in 2010? If they do, teams that my computer did not think were Top Ten last year like Boise St, Iowa, Cincinnati and Penn St could disappoint while teams in my computer’s Top Ten like Oklahoma, Oregon, Texas Tech and Nebraska could surprise and this year finish in the Top Ten.

I hope you enjoy the game grade averages as they give you another way of evaluating how well or how poorly your team did last year and they also have proven to be a precursor for the following year.

If you like the game grades averages make sure to check them out on the game-by-game stats for each team in this year’s magazine. At the bottom of the stats page above the year results look for the total game grade average and the ranking below it is my computer’s final ranking.

Every week we will post my Forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game.
So far this year the Top 25 Forecasts have gone 144-36 80% picking the winners of each game. That record may sound great, but do keep in mind most games have involved teams that were big favorites so the majority of people will have a solid record on these games as well. On the bottom of the forecast, I have listed some Upset Specials which have pulled the upset 11 out of 22 times with Rutgers getting the upset last week over Connecticut. Combined the first nine weeks record is 155-47 77%!!

#1 FLORIDA VS VANDERBILT

Tim Tebow accounted for 5 TD’s (3 pass, 2 rush) in last years 42-14 win. Florida led 42-0 before allowing 2 late Vandy touchdowns.  Vanderbilt has lost 18 in a row with their last win coming in 1988. The Commodores lost their 5th straight game and was eliminated from the bowls with their 56-31 loss to Georgia Tech last week. Vandy led 31-28 late 3rd qtr, but GT scored 28 unanswered pts in the final 15:54. The Gators clinched their 2nd straight SEC East Title with their dominating 41-17 win over UGA last week along with Tennessee’s win over South Carolina. Florida’s #2 defense held UGA to 286 total yards and grabbed 4 interceptions. UF has our #1 offense led by Tebow who is averaging 164 pass yards per game (65%) and he is the #1 rusher with 551 yards (4.0). Vandy QB Larry Smith who was averaging 125 yards per game (47%) will miss the rest of the season with a torn left hamstring. UF is in a Georgia/South Carolina sandwich, but they are the best team in the SEC facing the weakest.

PHIL’S FORECAST: FLORIDA 42 Vanderbilt 0

#2 TEXAS VS UCF

Rare late non-conference match-up. Texas trailed 24-23 early 4th qtr in the schools only meeting in ’07 which was the first ever game in UCF’s Bright House Stadium. The #2 Horns are off a huge Oklahoma St win which was their last big hurdle of the season. QB Colt McCoy is averaging 247 yards per game (72%) with a 14-8 ratio. UCF QB Brett Hodges is averaging 174 yards per game (59%) with an 8-7 ratio. RB Brynn Harvey (632 yards, 4.2) is 29% of the Knights offense but Texas is #1 in the nation at stopping the run (53 yards per game, 1.7). UCF is ranked #100 in our pass efficiency defense allowing 243 yards per game (65%) with a 9-5 ratio and UT comes in #2 (188 yards per game, 53%, 9-16 ratio). UT has big off (#2-103) and defense (#1-46) edges playing the much tougher slate (#22-104). With the Horns’ sights set on a National Title, the only question here is by how large the final margin will be. UCF was also very fortunate to escape Sunday night with a win thanks to a late Marshall fumble and they are playing on a short week.

PHIL’S FORECAST TEXAS 48 Ucf 6

#3 ALABAMA VS #9 LSU

Last year LSU fans were sky high for Saban’s return to Death Valley and LSU had a 382-353 yard edge. Alabama PK Leigh Tiffin missed a 42 yard FG and had a 29 yd FG blocked at the end of regulation but the Tide won in OT as LSU QB Lee had 4 interceptions. This is a battle of top 10 Defense’s but Bama has a large edge on off (#18-48). Crismon Tide QB Greg McElroy is averaging 181 yards per game (60%) with a 9-3 ratio and LSU QB Jefferson is averaging 178 yards per game (64%) with an 11-4 ratio. Both quarterbacks have struggled versus tough Defense’s this year, but Bama has the superior rushing game led by Mark Ingram (1004, 6.6) as they average 218 rush yards per game. LSU is off a strong 42-0 showing versus Tulane with 25-14 first down edge and 455-216 yard edges. Alabama is fresh off a late season bye, and this is the Tide’s most important game in a month (until Auburn 11/27), so the Tide should prevail for the 2nd straight Saban Bowl and clinch the SEC West.

PHIL’S FORECAST: ALABAMA 27 Lsu 10

#4 CINCINNATI VS CONNECTICUT

Cincinnati is 4-1 versus the Huskies with an average win by 14 points per game. Last year, QB Tony Pike returned from injury (Pike will practice won’t know till end of week if he starts) but was ineffective and sat out the 2nd half giving Cincy their only Big East loss, 40-16. The key was a 6-0 turnover edge as Cincy led 13-10 at Halftime. The #4 Bearcats (8-0) are off a workmanlike 28-7 win and cover over Syracuse. Backup QB Zach Collaros is 32-0 as a starter (including High School) and has stepped in well to Kelly’s plug and play system averaging 207 yards per game (79%) with a 7-1 ratio and 206 rush yards (6.9). WR Mardy Gilyard leads the Big East in all-purpose yards (169.5). The defense is allowing 13 points per game and 313 yards per game. Connecticut is off a heartbreaking 28-24 loss to Rutgers, their 1st home game since the death of CB Jasper Howard. After taking the lead with :38 left off a 15 play 87 yard drive, Connecticut gave up a short pass that went 81 yards for a TD. QB Cody Endres was injured in the 1st Qtr (out for the year) but  Zach Frazer replaced him and threw for 333 yards (46%) with a 3-1 ratio. The defense has allowed 414 yards per game in BE play and now faces the Big East’s top offense (454 yards per game, 39.1 points per game). Connecticut has proven it can stay with any team but emotion is a question.

PHIL’S FORECAST: CINCINNATI 27 Connecticut 23

#5 BOISE ST AT LA TECH

PHIL’S FORECAST: CLICK HERE on Friday at 5:00 EST

#6 TCU AT SAN DIEGO ST

Despite being in a flat spot last week, TCU continued their drive to the BCS with a 41-0 win over UNLV. The Frogs, as usual, have a dominating defense giving up only 240 yards per game but this year’s team also has an explosive offense which is averaging 447 yards per game. San Diego St, meanwhile, is 4-4 and is looking for its first bowl game since 1998. QB Ryan Lindley started off the season slowly, but after the bye week is averaging 336 yards per game (63%) with a 12-1 ratio! New DC Rocky Long leads a much-improved defense that is allowing 111 yards per game less this year. Last year his New Mexico defense held TCU to 291 yards, its lowest total of the season. TCU has won the last 3 by an avg of 46-13 with an AMAZING 97-25 first down edge and last year had a 498-95 yard edge at home as Lindley was KO’d early (shoulder) and back-up Drew Westling hit 6-17 for just 61 yds. TCU is 4-0 at Qualcomm Stadium (2 bowl gms, 2 vs SDSt) the last four years. However, the Aztecs this year are a different team under Hoke.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Tcu 30 SAN DIEGO ST 16

#7 OREGON VS STANFORD

Oregon is 8-1 vs Stanford since 1998 and comes into the Farm with arguably their biggest win in program history destroying USC in Eugene 47-20 with 31-17 FD and 613-327 yd edges (Oregon 391 rush, 8.0). In last year’s meeting, Oregon RB Blount punched in a 3 yd TD run with :06 remaining giving the Ducks a 7 point victory in Eugene. The Cardinal have proven to be a bowl caliber program this season and are off, arguably, their most convincing win of the season against ASU as they rushed for 237 yds (5.2) vs a Sun Devil defense that hadn’t allowed more than 137 yards per game on the ground all season. If this was ANY other team in the country I would be calling for the home team off a bye that is the most physical running team in the conference to upset a team that is off a HUGE week and having to travel and now catching a LOT of national attention. This is Oregon however and they are the BEST one loss team in the country and are in the drivers seat of the Pac 10 and they look 1000 times better right now than they did at the start of the year. QUACK, QUACK, I will take the Ducks!

PHIL’S FORECAST: Oregon 31 STANFORD 30

#8 IOWA VS NORTHWESTERN

The visitor has 3 straight upsets as Iowa has dropped back-to-back games to Northwestern. Iowa lost 5 TO’s (-4 overall) in last year’s 22-17 upset loss as the Hawkeyes are off a stunning 42-24 win over Indy in which they trailed 21-7 at the half. Big plays turned it in the Hawks’ favor as Tyler Sash returned an interception, which bounced off several players, 86 yards for a TD and Indy controversially had a TD pass overturned (horrible call!) and then missed a 28 yd FG. QB Ricky Stanzi (228 yards per game, 56%, 14-13 ratio) continued his wildly erratic play tossing int’s on 4 straight 3rd quarter possessions but also threw 92 and 66 yard TD passes to put the Hawks in the lead. The defense leads the Big Ten with 25 TO’s gained. NU lost the Big Ten’s top passer QB Mike Kafka (244, 67%, 9-7 ratio) in the 2nd quarter and the game 34-13 as Penn St scored on 3 straight plays in the 4th quarter. Backup Dan Persa hit 14-23 for 115 yards but was sacked 4 times in the loss. The banged up Cats’ defense is allowing 123 rush yards per game (3.8). Iowa has the biggest regular season game in Ferentz’s tenure on deck at OSU.

PHIL’S FORECAST: IOWA 27 Northwestern 20

#10 GEORGIA TECH VS WAKE FOREST

These 2 haven’t met since the 2006 ACC Title game when the Demon Deacons won 9-6 on 3 FG’s. The Deacons defeated Johnson’s Navy squad 44-24 in 2007, however, they did give up 338 yards on the ground vs Navy a few weeks ago. Last Week Wake allowed 14 4th quarter points and fell to Miami 28-27 (Wake Forest 555-356 yd edge) in the rain. QB Riley Skinner suffered a concussion (is questionable this week) with 6:22 left and on the season is averaging 255 pass yards per game (66%) with an 18-10 ratio. GT has a large offensive edge (#4-61) and also has the defensive edge (#49-62). QB Josh Nesbitt is averaging 130 yards per game (48%) with a 6-3 ratio and has rushed for 763 yards (4.1). RB Jonathan Dwyer has 904 rush yards (6.2) and GT is #2 in the NCAA in rush offense. GT is coming off a 56-31 win over Vandy and now turn their attention to winning the Coastal Division and securing a berth in the ACC Champ game but Wake won’t make it easy.

PHIL’S FORECAST: GEORGIA TECH 37 Wake Forest 30

#11 PENN ST VS #15 OHIO STATE

Last year OSU was held to 14 FD’s in front of a record home crowd (105,711) in a 13-6 loss in which PA native Terrelle Pryor, on 3rd&1 at the 50 with 10:38 left and a 6-3 lead, fumbled on a QB sneak. Lions back-up QB Pat Devlin led the game winning TD drive after Daryll Clark suffered a concussion. Penn St was tied 13-13 with NW into the 4th quarter last week but scored on 3 straight offensive touches in a 34-13 win in which the Big Ten’s leading passer (Cats QB Mike Kafka) was KO’d in the 2nd quarter. Big Ten pass efficiency leader (Ohio native) Clark (240 yards per game, 63%, 18-7 ratio) pilots the conference’s top offense but wasn’t recruited by OSU. RB Royster (859 yards, 5.9) has had 4 straight 100 yard games vs conference foes. PSU Defense leads the Big Ten in scoring (9.3-#1 NCAA), rushing (84 yards per game, 2.6), total D (255 yards per game) and sacks (32). OSU got its 3rd shutout of the year beating NM St 45-0 while holding the Aggies to 2 FD’s and 62 total yards. The Bucks had some razzle dazzle recovering an onside kick and having a WR reverse pass for a 39 yard TD. QB Pryor (171 yards per game, 55%, 13-9 ratio, 554 rush yards) made some controversial comments about PSU when he chose OSU and will be playing in his home state for the first time. The o-line played without 2 starters last week and has started 5 different lineups this year. OSU’s huge special team’s edge (#14-112) may be negated here as kicker Pettrey suffered a serious knee injury. Similar programs and styles but the big difference here is on offense (PSU edge #23-38) with QB Clark a polished vet while Pryor is still a work in progress.

PHIL’S FORECAST: PENN ST 20 Ohio St 10

#12 USC AT ARIZONA STATE

USC has won 9 straight vs ASU but will be in a very unfamiliar situation here after suffering their worst loss since ‘97 last week vs Oregon 47-20 and were out-gained 613-327. The blowout loss was actually just the 2nd time in Pete Carroll’s 9 year career that they have lost by more than a TD (11 point loss to Notre Dame in ‘01, Carroll’s 1st season). In their last visit to Tempe, USC handed the Sun Devils a 44-24 beat down in front of a sold-out Thanksgiving crowd. ASU’s season has fallen apart over the past 2 weeks with a convincing loss to Stanford and a last second defeat to Cal. Carroll is an amazing 27-0 in November here at USC and the Trojans will be in a foul mood after last week’s performance.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Usc 31 ARIZONA ST 6

#13 HOUSTON AT TULSA

A critical game in the CUSA West race. The home team has won 3 in a row by an average of 51-16! Last Year Tulsa came in ranked #25, but Houston got a career-high 6 TD passes from Keenum as the Cougars scored 70 points for 1st time since ‘91. Tulsa won the last time here 56-7 in ‘07. The Hurricane are off a 27-13 upset loss to SMU at home. They were out-gained 429-322 by an SMU team led by a true frosh QB making his 1st start. Tulsa QB GJ Kinne is averaging 187 yards per game (58%) with a 12-4 ratio, but was benched last week after throwing 2 early interceptions. WR Damaris Johnson leads with 29 receptions (19.6) and is also a dangerous return man. The Cougs are off a 50-43 home win over Southern Miss as they put up 750 yards. QB Case Keenum threw for a career high 559 yards (81%) and 5 TD’s. He is #1 in NCAA averaging 412 yards per game (72%) with a 25-5 ratio. UH has 6 players with 20+ receptions, led by James Cleveland with 62 (11.1) and 8 TD’s. They have struggled stopping the run this year (223 yards per game, #115 NCAA) and Tulsa’s rush attack is averaging 155 yards per game. The home team is 3-0 in the series and we expect that trend to continue here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: TULSA 40 Houston 30

#14 PITTSBURGH VS SYRACUSE

Last year the Orange blew a 24-13 lead in their 34-24 loss to Pitt. The Cuse had won 11 in a row in the series, but Pitt is now on a 6-1 run. Pitt dominated USF prior to their bye 41-14 and is off to their best start since the Marino era. The Pitt O-line dominated a solid USF D-line that held West Virginia to 118 rush yards (3.4). Pitt RB Dion Lewis is averaging 129 yards per game (5.6) with 11 TD’s. QB Bill Stull is averaging 207 yards per game (67%) with a 16-4 ratio. This may be the most complete Pitt offense yet under Wannstedt. Pitt has a NCAA leading 33 sacks and now faces an inexperienced Syracuse O-Line. The Orange are averaging 110 rush yards per game (3.4) allowing 15 sacks. Last week Syracuse loss 28-7 to #4 Cincy. The Orange have recently alternated QB’s and are averaging 203 pass yards per game (67%) with a 12-11 ratio. Their top weapon is WR Mike Williams with 49 receptions (15.2) but he QUIT THE TEAM this week! Pitt has all the edges here (offense #24-93 and defense #24-79) and has out-gained Syracuse by 110 yards per game in their last six wins. This is ONLY Syracuse’s 2nd road game and they may be eyeing a winnable Louisville game on deck.

PHIL’S FORECAST: PITTSBURGH 41 Syracuse 6

#16 MIAMI, FL VS VIRGINIA

The Cavs upset Miami at home in ‘06 (17-7). In ‘07 with Miami playing with revenge and also in their final game ever in the Orange Bowl, UVA amazingly not only upset Miami in front of all their former players who were on hand for the occasion but crushed them 48-0 for the most embarrassing loss in Hurricane history. Last year Miami QB Jacory Harris threw a tying TD pass in the final minute and another one in OT to give Miami a 24-17 win over Virginia as the Canes got the series 3rd straight upset win. Last week the Hurricanes needed 14 points in the 4th quarter to rally to defeat Wake Forest and become bowl eligible. Miami’s banged up defense gave up 555 yards, the most since ‘00 vs FSU and the 408 passing yards allowed were the most since ‘98 vs UCLA. QB Harris is averaging 263 yards per game (62%) with a 16-11 ratio. UM does have a large offensive edge (#21-100) but both teams matchup evenly on defense. UVA QB Jameel Sewell is averaging 168 yards per game (53%) with a 6-6 ratio. With their loss to Duke last week, UVA fell to 3-5 and now looks to avoid a 3 game losing streak here but the Hurricanes instead keep themselves in the ACC race. Even with a banged up defense, Miami should roll to an impressive win.

PHIL’S FORECAST: MIAMI, FL 34 Virginia 10

#17 UTAH VS NEW MEXICO

Last year Utah, who came in averaging 39 points per game, was caught looking ahead (to TCU) and only pulled out a 3 point win as New Mexico held the Utes to a season low 13 points. This year the Utes again have TCU on deck but this is a much different New Mexico team that is 0-8 under 1st year head coach Locksley. Despite its 7-1 record, the Utes have either been tied or have trailed in the 2nd half of five of their 8 games. The Utes’ offense seem to have gotten a spark last week with true Freshman QB Jordan Wynn (PS#52) coming in for Terrance Cain and leading the Utes to 19 2nd half points in their 22-10 win over Wyoming. While Utah’s offense has not topped 35 points this year, the New Mexico defense is giving up 36 points per game. Despite the big game on deck, the Utes continue the Lobos’ losing ways.

PHIL’S FORECAST: UTAH 37 New Mexico 6

#18 OKLAHOMA ST AT IOWA STATE

The home team has 4 straight wins by an average of 28 points per game. Iowa St is actually 3-2 this decade. The Cowboys are off a huge loss to Texas which may have ended any Big 12 Title hopes. QB Zac Robinson is averaging 211 yards per game (64%) with a 13-7 ratio. The Cyclones had a tough time vs Texas A&M last week but is just a win away from bowl eligibility. Redshirt Freshman QB Jerome Tiller (PS#54) started his 2nd straight game last week (129 yards per game, 59%, 1-2 ratio and 108 rush yards, 3.5) in place of Austin Arnaud (156 yards per game, 57%, 9-5 ratio, and 434 yards, 4.8) who may return here. Iowa St RB Alexan Robinson (813 yards, 5.4) returned last week and seems 100%. The last time OSU was off such a big game they lost to Houston, but they do have the better offense (#22-55) and defense (#20-81). It will be tough to get the Cowboys refocused (Texas/Texas Tech sandwich) but Gundy knows Rhoad’s has his team believing and will not look past anybody.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Oklahoma St 34 IOWA ST 17

#19 NOTRE DAME VS NAVY

Notre Dame had a streak of 43 wins in a row snapped in a 3 overtime loss the last here. Last year ND led 27-7 with 1:33 left and fumbled deep in Navy territory with the backups in. Navy got 2 TD’s and 2 onside kicks and had the ball down 27-21 but was stopped on downs at the ND 31 with :22 left. ND had a 341-137 yard edge prior to Navy’s last two drives. ND WR Michael Floyd was injured in the 1st quarter vs Navy last year and did not play the rest of the regular season. Ironically, Floyd will return this week from a broken collarbone (out last five games). ND is off a comfortable 40-14 win over Washington St in San Antonio and after 6 straight down-to-the-wire games, the starters were able to rest in the 2nd half last week. ND QB Jimmy Clausen is averaging 290 yards per game (67%) with an 18-2 ratio. Navy is off a 27-24 loss to Temple ending their streak of 5 straight wins. QB Ricky Dobbs (77 pass yards per game, 50%, 3-2 ratio, 595 rushing, 3.5) has missed the last two games (knee injury) but will start this week. ND was in control last year, but almost let it slip away but this year’s ND team is better and playing at home.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NOTRE DAME 37 Navy 17

#20 OKLAHOMA AT NEBRASKA

Historic rivalry played every year from 1928-’97. OU is 5-1 vs NU this decade. Last year OU dropped 62 on the Husker defense which was the most allowed in their 84 game history. OU held off a feisty KSU squad last week giving up a season high 30 points and 364 yards. QB Landry Jones is averaging 207 yards per game (62%) with a 17-6 ratio. NU took advantage of a slumping BU squad last week snapping a 2 game Big 12 losing streak. True Freshman Cody Green (PS#21) made his 1st career start last week (171 total yards) in favor of struggling Zac Lee (183 yards per game, 60%, 10-6). Both teams field great defensive units (OU #3 allowing 13 points per game and 277 yards per game, Nebraska #5 allowing 11 points per game and 268 yards per game) but the Sooners have been more consistent on offense (#12-46) despite the injuries as Stoops clearly has his team focused. As a college football fan, I am very happy to see this game return to the schedule and I still think back to that 1972 Thanksgiving game with Johnny Rodgers and Greg Pruitt which Sports Illustrated billed as “Irresistable Force vs Immovable object”.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Oklahoma 16 NEBRASKA 13

#21 ARIZONA VS WASHINGTON STATE

Last year WSU was actually tied 14-14 before eventually losing 59-28 at home. Zona RB Nic Grigsby set a career-high rushing mark for the 2nd consecutive year vs the Cougs with 189 yards but he is questionable here with a shoulder injury that has plagued him most of the season. Arizona returns from a bye still believing they have a shot at the Rose Bowl with an offense that is averaging 465 yards per game in conference play led by the emergence of QB Nick Foles who is avg 325 yards per game (73%) in his 4 starts. After last week’s thumping in San Antonio vs ND (Irish home game with crowd edge), the Cougs are averaging a 25 points per game deficit in their losses this year. UA has won three straight in the series by an average of 45-24 giving them the convincing win here this week.

PHIL’S FORECAST: FORECAST: ARIZONA 49 Washington St 6

#22 VIRGINIA TECH AT EAST CAROLINA

PHIL’S FORECAST: CLICK HERE on Thursday at 5:00 EST

#23 CALIFORNIA VS OREGON STATE

In their last visit here, Cal had a chance to move up to #1 in the nation with a victory but then back-up QB Kevin Riley, making his first career start, committed a critical error on the final play allowing OSU to escape with the win. Last year, Cal trailed by 6 and had the ball but suffered a 25 yards interception return for a TD with :31 left for a misleading 13 point road loss. OSU held off scrappy UCLA (led 19-3 in the 4th quarter last week in Corvallis After last week;s last second win in Tempe vs ASU, Cal has won 3 consecutive games after their collapses vs Oregon and USC in early October leaning on their splendid run game that has posted 218 yards per game (6.0) in that span. Seven of Cal’s 8 games have been decided by 2 or more TD’s and while this may be closer, Cal plays very well at home vs over-matched opponents.

PHIL’S FORECAST: CALIFORNIA 37 Oregon St 24

#24 WISCONSIN AT INDIANA

The Badgers are 10-2 vs Indiana winning by 26 points per game. Under Bielema the Badgers are 3-0 winning by a 47-13 average. Last year the Badgers set a Memorial Stadium record with 441 yards rushing in a 55-20 win. Fresh off a bye, Wisconsin’s huge o-line flattened the smallish Boilers defense 37-0 with a 266-60 yard rushing edge for the Badgers’ first shut out of a Big Ten team  since ’99. QB Scott Tolzien (190 yards per game, 63%, 9-8 ratio) rebounded from back-to-back tough outings thanks to the Big Ten’s leading rusher John Clay (839 yards, 4.7). Indy has suffered back-to-back meltdowns blowing a 28-3 2nd quarter lead versus Northwestern and a 21-7 halftime lead at Iowa. The Hoosiers took advantage of 6 Hawkeye turnovers and had the ball at the Iowa 2 when the game began to turn on an 86 yard interception return for a TD which caromed off several players. The Hoosiers then drove deep into Iowa territory but a TD was questionably overturned via replay and they missed a FG. Iowa threw 2 long TD passes to take the lead. QB Ben Chappell (228 yards per game, 62%, 10-10 ratio) has sunk to #10 in Big Ten pass efficiency. RB Darius Willis (459 yards, 4.7) is Big Ten’s #5 rusher. Wisky has dominated the line of scrimmage in this series and that trend will continue.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Wisconsin 38 INDIANA 13

#25 BYU AT WYOMING

Deer hunting season in Wyoming started on November 1 so expect a smaller than usual crowd with this being the first Saturday. Wyoming is having a solid season going 4-4 under new coach Christensen. The Pokes are led by true freshman QB Austyn Carta-Samuels who is averaging 147 yards per game (58%) with a 6-3 ratio. However, the offense has averaged only 188 total yards per game the last two games and this week they run into a BYU team that is coming off a bye and wants to get the bad taste out of their mouth from the TCU game. Mendenhall’s teams usually finish strong with the exception of last years BCS bubble burst, as the Cougs have lost only 2 games in the month of November during his tenure. BYU QB Max Hall is averaging 279 yards per game (69%) with a 17-11 ratio and the Cougar coaches and players say they will not let the TCU game effect the rest of the season like last year. In this series, the Cougs have won the last five by an average of 45-6! Expect more of the same this year with BYU’s offense playing very well on the road this year averaging 50 points per game the last three.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Byu 34 WYOMING 10

UPSET SPECIALS:

ILLINOIS over Minnesota

KANSAS ST over Kansas

COLORADO over Texas A&M

ULM over North Texas

Every week we will post my Forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game.

So far this year the Top 25 Forecasts have gone 111-28 80% picking the winners of each game. That record may sound great, but do keep in mind most games have involved teams that were big favorites so the majority of people will have a solid record on these games as well. On the bottom of the forecast, I have listed some Upset Specials which have pulled the upset 8 out of 19 times. Combined the first seven weeks record is 122-42 74%!!

Let’s get to my Top 25 Forecasts!

#1 FLORIDA AT MISSISSIPPI STATE

Florida hasn’t won in Starkville since 1985 (4 straight losses) with Mississippi St having 4 outright upsets over ranked Gator squads. Mississippi St HC Mullen was the Florida OC the last 4 years and knows Meyer inside and out as he was the QB Coach at Utah and Bowling Green from 2001-2004. Florida escaped with a 23-20 win over Arkansas last week on a 27 yard field goal with :09 left. Tebow accounted for 324 of the team’s 391 yards and a 4-0 TO deficit kept Ark in the game. Mississippi St is off a 27-6 win at Middle Tennessee, in which Mississippi St had just a 333-248 yard edge. This is the first defense ranked in the NCAA’s top 30 that Miss St will face (Florida #1). Miss St did outgain then-#7 LSU 374-263 in a 30-26 loss and had 487 yards versus then-#25 Georgia Tech. Mississippi St is a run-first off led by RB Dixon (696, 5.2), but Florida is only allowing 95 rush yards per game (3.0). Head Coach Meyer might want to open it up after last week’s close call even with rival Georgia on deck.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Florida 41 MISS ST 10

#2 ALABAMA VS TENNESSEE

This bitter rivalry was always held on the “Third Saturday in October” but it is on the wrong weekend again this year. Saban has led Alabama to 2 straight wins versus Tennessee by an average of 35-13, but Tennessee is 4-2 at Alabama. Alabama had 23-10 FD and 366-173 yard edges in last year’s 29-9 win and held Tennessee to 39 yards rush even though DT Cody did not play (he was injured). Tennessee is 4-0 off a much-needed bye as many players were banged up and Alabama is playing their 8th straight game. Prior to the bye, Tennessee destroyed Georgia 45-19 with a 472-241 yard edge. Tennessee RB Hardesty has 672 (5.4) but Alabama only allows 63 rush yards per game (2.2) for #3 in the NCAA. In the Vols’ only previous road game, Tennessee was held to 210 total yards by our #1 defense (Florida) and now faces my #2 defense. Alabama RB Ingram had a career high 246 yards last week (905, 6.7). Tennessee QB Crompton (202 yards per game, 58%, 13-9 ratio) implodes when pressured and Alabama’s defense has 21 sacks this year, so Bama should bag their 8th straight double digit win.

PHIL’S FORECAST: ALABAMA 30 Tennessee 9

#3 TEXAS VS MISSOURI

Texas has owned this series going 14-1  (5-0 under Brown). Last year both teams were ranked in the Top 11 and Texas was at home but led 35-3 with a 352-101 yard edge at halftime. The Horns are off a big Red River Rivalry win and have gone 10-0 the game after. QB McCoy is averaging 256 yards per game (70%) with an 11-7 ratio. Mizzou surprised many with its 4-0 start and a 12-0 lead after the 3Q versus Neb but since then have been outscored 60-17. QB Gabbert is not 100% (ankle injury) and is averaging 270 yards per game (58%) with a 12-5 ratio. Both teams’ rush attacks have been below par this year (Texas 170 yards per game, 4.4, MIssouri 122 yards per game, 3.4) but Texas has been better at stopping the run (Texas 36 ypg, 1.3, Missouri 127 ypg, 3.6). Texas is ranked #17 in my pass efficiency D allowing 210 yards per game (52%) with a 7-10 ratio while Missouri is #40 (210 yards per game, 58%, 7-2). Texas does have Oklahoma St on deck. The Horns have their sights on a National Title and will leap another hurdle here versus a Tiger squad in its toughest stretch of the season.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Texas 33 MISSOURI 16

#4 BOISE STATE AT HAWAII

Boise has won 7 of the last 8 in this series. The Warriors are #3 in the NCAA in pass offense (371 yards per game) but that figure was primarily due to QB Alexander (out year, knee). Backup QB Moniz is averaging 197 yards per game (57%) with a 3-3 ratio getting the last two starts. Hawaii WR Salas is #2 in the NCAA with 132 yards per game with 42 receptions (18.8) while teammate Bradley has 31 receptions (18.5). Boise St has large edges on offense (#25-77), defense (#23-108) and Special Teams (#8-77). QB Moore is averaging 234 yards per game (70%) with a 16-2 ratio and is #1 in the NCAA in pass efficiency (171.2) and has two top-tier WR’s to play pitch-&-catch with in Pettis (32 receptions, 13.8) and Young (31 receptions, 11.6). RB Avery has 514 yards (5.8) and leads a solid ground game. Boise is 61-4 all-time versus the WAC with its last conference loss coming here in ‘07 to UH (39-27) which cost the Broncos the WAC Title. Boise St  has played subpar games the last two but look for a trip to paradise here to get them back on track versus a Hawaii team which has lost four straight games for the first time since 2000.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Boise St 45 HAWAII 10

#5 CINCINNATI VS LOUISVILLE

This is the Battle for the Keg of Nails and these schools are only 106 miles apart. Cincinnati snapped a 5 game losing streak last year with their 28-20 win over the Cardinals. Louisville has lost 9 of the last 10 games versus FBS foes. Last week Connecticut converted 24 pts off Louisville turnovers as the Cards lost 38-25. QB Froman threw for 295 yards (77%), but couldn’t overcome 5 turnovers and RB Anderson was limited with injury. The defense is allowing 360 yards per game and is badly banged up in the secondary and now has to contain Cincinnati’s aerial assault (310 yards per game). Cincinnati jumps to #5 after defeating USF 34-17. QB Pike re-injured his arm and sophomore Collaros came in and rushed for 125 yards and 2 touchdowns. He will make his first start here, and the offense takes on a new complexion with his mobility. At least Louisville will be prepared for the switch unlike USF which had to adapt mid game. Cincinnati has huge edges all around (offense #14-60, defense #34-85 and special teams #18-76). Look for the Cards to keep this closer than expected.

PHIL’S FORECAST: CINCINNATI 38 Louisville 28

#6 IOWA AT MICHIGAN STATE

The home team has won 9 in a row by 15 points per game. Michigan St survived 16-13 in ‘08 with Iowa losing two turnovers in the redzone and they were stopped on downs on 4th & 1 at the MSU21 passing up a 38 yard game-tying field goal. Michigan St rallied from a 7-0 halftime deficit to beat Northwestern 24-14 in East Lansing. Michigan St was stopped on downs at 4th & goal from the 1 on their first drive but also scored 10 points in 3 plays early in the 4th quarter as Michigan St hit a field goal and then had a 22 yard touchdown run 1 play after Northwestern fumbled away the kickoff. QB Cousins (214 yards per game as starter, 63%, 9-4 ratio) is the Big Ten’s pass efficiency leader with his top target being White (45, 14.1). Michigan St is tied for the league lead in sacks with 21 and #3 in rush defense (99, 3.0). Iowa won their 11th straight rallying from a 10-0 deficit to beat rival Wisconsin 20-10 as Wisconsin quarterback Tolzien threw three 2nd half interceptions. QB Stanzi (225 yards per game, 59%, 11-8 ratio) continues to play like Derek Anderson in the 1H and Tom Brady in the 2H. Iowa’s D is #2 NCAA in turnovers forced with 22 (13 in 3 road games). Iowa has the edge on defense (#11-28) and special teams (#20-41) and continues to lead the Big Ten race.

PHIL’S FORECAST Iowa 20 MICHIGAN ST 16

#7 USC VS OREGON STATE

Oregon St comes in fresh off a bye and catches USC in an Notre Dame/Oregon sandwich. Leading by 20 points in the 4th quarter, USC’s defense held on for the 7 point win last week in South Bend (501-367 yard edge) stopping 3 passes from the 4 yard line as time expired. The Beavers upset USC for the 2nd time in the last 3 seasons last year as USC trailed 21-0 at the half and was unable to convert on a last minute touchdown attempt. In 2007, USC was playing with revenge and jumped out to a big halftime lead at home and won 24-3. USC should get legitimate revenge here again despite the journey to Eugene next week for the potential Pac-10 Title.

PHIL’S FORECAST: USC 41 Oregon St 13

#8 TCU AT #16 BYU

This is the Game of the Year in the Mountain West Conference and unlike last year when the BCS pressure was on BYU this time the pressure is on TCU. Last year the Horned Frogs handed BYU their worst loss since 2005 and stopped their attempted BCS run with a 32-7 blowout (snapped a BYU 16 game win streak). While TCU has fared well on the road this year with wins over Clemson and Virginia, BYU is very tough at home winning 13 straight conference games. BYU QB Max Hall has been good averaging 296 yards per game (69%) with a 16-10 ratio and has not thrown an interception the last two games. Meanwhile TCU QB Dalton is averaging 204 yards per game (69%) with an 8-3 ratio. Don’t read too much into last week’s close win versus San Diego St as BYU was clearly looking ahead to this week (still had 512-342 yard edge). If this game is decided by a touchdown remember that nobody is better in close games than the Cougs who have won their last eight in which the outcome was decided by 8 or less. I like the Cougars to end TCU’s BCS run. Simply put: the better team in a win situation at home.

PHIL’S FORECAST: BYU 27 Tcu 17

#9 LSU VS AUBURN

The last 5 have been decided by a touchdown or less and the home team is 8-1. Last year LSU RB Scott (132, 6.3) became the first LSU back to surpass 100 rush yards at Jordan-Hare Stadium and LSU hit an 18 yard touchdown pass with 1:03 left for a 26-20 win. LSU is fresh off a bye and should be over their 13-3 loss to Florida which ended their 32 game win streak on Saturday nights in Tiger Stadium. Auburn is playing an 8th straight week and this is their 3rd away game in 4 weeks and they have lost 2 in a row. Auburn’s last game was a 21-14 upset loss to Kentucky. Auburn RB Tate has five 100+ rush games this year (856, 5.7). Despite being a Top 10 team, LSU has been outgained by an average of 323-295 in their 6 games this year, but has outscored opponents by an average of 23-14.5. LSU spent their bye week trying to fix their ailing off, so you may see some new wrinkles here. LSU QB Jefferson (169 yards per game, 63%, 7-3 ratio) has been rattled by strong defenses, but Auburn only ranks #50 while LSU’s ranks #10. This looks like another down-to-the-wire SEC game.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Auburn 24 LSU 23

#10 MIAMI, FL VS CLEMSON

These two last met in 2005 and Miami needed a Tyrone Moss 25 yard touchdown run in the 3rd overtime to lift #13 Miami over #20 Clemson 36-30. Clemson won their last trip here in 2004, 24-17, also in overtime. QB Harris is averaging 253 yards per game (65%) with an 11-7 ratio. Miami has some very talented RB’s (James averages 5.0 and Berry 7.9) and needs to utilize them more but the OL can’t be as erratic as it has been this year (6 sacks allowed last week versus UCF). Miami has the offensive edge (#26-62) but Clemson has the defensive edge (#8-14). RB Spiller is averaging 191 all-purpose yards per game (#2 ACC, #6 NCAA). QB Parker is averaging 171 yards per game (50%) with a 6-5 ratio. RB Spiller seems to have shaken off a turf toe injury that has hampered him most of the year, rushing for 106 yards (11.8) last week, and now faces a DL that has been banged up most of the season.

PHIL’S FORECAST: MIAMI, FL 23 Clemson 16

#11 OREGON AT WASHINGTON

A week after pulling out a fluke win versus Arizona, karma came back to bite Washington as Arizona St connected on a long TD pass with :05 left for the win. After a dismal opener versus Boise, Oregon is on a 5 game win streak (have outscored last 3 opponents by a 39-6 average) but it will be interesting to see if QB Masoli (150 yards per game, 60%, 4-2 ratio) returns from injury or if backup QB Costa starts for a 2nd straight game (82 yard pass, 53% versus UCLA). After last year’s 44-10 victory, Oregon has now won a school record 5 consecutive games (by 25 points per game) versus rival Washington. Oregon is fresh off a bye and has a solid defense edge (#18-64). We’ll side with the Huskies with the uncertainty at the QB spot for the Ducks. Washington outgained LSU, while also beating USC and upsetting Arizona at home this year. The Huskie homefield advantage is becoming prevalent and look for them to take advantage versus a Ducks squad that had a misleading win against UCLA benefitting from 3 TD’s in the first 5 minutes of the 2H on a KR, IR TD and a short drive after a fumble.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Washington 26 Oregon 23

#12 GEORGIA TECH AT VIRGINIA

Georgia Tech lost 8 straight times at Scott Stadium with their last win in 1990 when they knocked off the #1 Cavs. The home team is 12-2 but last year Georgia Tech was ranked #21 and at home, jumped out to a 14-3 lead but was outscored 21-3 the final 3Q’s, was upset at home 24-17 and was held to just 156 yards rush. Although QB Sewell has improved, he did leave the game last week with a sprained ankle (check status). On the season he is averaging 182 yards per game (55%) with a 5-5 ratio. RB Simpson missed last week with a neck injury but is expected to play here. Georgia Tech has a large offensive edge (#6-93) but the Cavs have the defensive edge (#24-55). QB Nesbitt is averaging 128 yards per game (48%) with a 4-3 ratio, but is #3 in the ACC with 625 rush yards (4.1). WR Thomas is #1 in the ACC with 27 receptions (24.9) despite Georgia Tech’s offensive scheme (just 1 completion last week). Georgia Tech is coming off a huge upset win over #4 Virginia Tech (first home win over Top 5 team S/’62) and Virginia has won 12 of their last 13 in Oct.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Virginia 26 Georgia Tech 23

#13 PENN STATE AT MICHIGAN

Michigan has won 5 straight at home holding Penn St to 14 points per game as the Lions were ranked #15 or higher in four. Last year Michigan led 17-7 before surrendering 39 unanswered points. That snapped a Paterno record 9 game series losing streak and set a Penn St series record with 46 points. Penn St dominated Minnesota 20-0 in the coldest Homecoming on record as the Lions had 21-7 firstdown, 464-138 yard and 41:59-18.01 time of possession edges (best time of possession edge since 1991). QB Clark (236 yards per game, 62%, 13-7 ratio) and RB Royster (641, 5.8) are the conference’s best backfield duo. Lions lead the Big Ten in most major defensive categories despite the fact that All-Conference LB’s Lee and Bowman played their first complete game together last week. Michigan led Delaware St 49-3 at the half in a record setting romp in which they emptied the bench with four QB’s playing including Forcier (concussion versus Iowa), who started and only played the first series. Michigan is #21 in our pass efficiency defense rankings (233 yards per game, 58%, 6-7 ratio). Penn St ends their agony in Ann Arbor.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Penn St 34 Michigan 23

#15 OKLAHOMA STATE AT BAYLOR

Homecoming. Last year Baylor was in a great spot catching Oklahoma St off a huge upset (#3 Mizzou) with a #1 team (Texas) on deck. Baylor led 6-0 but Oklahoma St dominated after with a 457-204 yard (257-98 at halftime) edge (34-6). The Bears high expectations are shrinking each week as this is an all too familiar road traveled before. QB Szymanski started last week (223 yards, 61%, 0-3 ratio) and has two starts versus Oklahoma St averaging 244 yards per game (65%) with a 4-5 ratio, although he is 0-2 vs the Cowboys. Oklahoma St comes in 5-1 despite the off-field distractions and injuries to key players. QB Robinson is averaging 217 yards per game (62%) with a 9-3 ratio. Baylor is just 2-12 versus Oklahoma St. Even with Texas on deck again the Cowboys should roll with the better offense (#19-64) and defense (#30-72).

PHIL’S FORECAST: Oklahoma St 31 Baylor 17

#17 HOUSTON VS SMU

Houston has won 6 of 7 in the series. Last year the Mustangs led 35-23 heading into the 4Q, but the Cougars scored 14 pts the last 2:34 for the comeback win. SMU QB Mitchell was 29-39 for 365 yards and 4 TD’s while Houston QB Keenum threw for 404. SMU is a much improved team, but is off a hard fought 38-35 overtime loss to Navy. QB Mitchell is showing greater poise as he is averaging 235 yards per game with a 6-2 ratio the last 3 games. RB McNeal (PS#39) provides some pop out of the backfield and has 500 rush yards (4.8), including131 (8.7) versus Navy. The defense needs to make a quick transition from the option attack of Navy to the spread pass game of Houston. The Cougs are off a 44-16 win over Tulane, although they were held to a season low nine first half points. Houston is #3 in the NCAA averaging 40.8 points per game. QB Keenum is #1 in NCAA averaging 411 yards per game (70%) with a 19-4 ratio. He spreads the ball around as 3 WR’s (Carrier, Cleveland, Edwards) have 35 or more receptions. Houston barely escaped UTEP last year and then was dominated by the Miners (58-41) this year and now faces a similar situation versus SMU, but I expect SMU to keep it closer than many expect.

PHIL’S FORECAST: HOUSTON 38 Smu 31

#18 UTAH VS AIR FORCE

Utah is 5-1 in the series but their last 3 wins have been by 4 points per game. Last year Air Force was outgained 440-191 but led 16-9 at halftime and was tied at 23 before allowing an 80/11pl TD drive with :58 left. While the Utes have dominated in the W/L column, Air Force did win their last trip here as Utah lost their starting QB and RB to injury the week prior. Utah QB Cain (PS#9JC) has been solid averaging 223 yards per game (64%) with a 10-5 ratio. Meanwhile the Falcons have shuffled their QB’s and probably will go with Dietz who led them to ten second half points in their win last week over Wyoming. Utah did hold Air Force to a season low 53 yards rush in 2008 and that was on the road. The Utes have the edges on offense (#43-98) and defense (#25-40) but Air Force always seems to keep these games competitive and look for the same here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: UTAH 17 Air Force 13

#19 OHIO STATE VS MINNESOTA

Last year Minnesota trailed 34-6 in the 4Q before scoring 2 garbage TD’s, the last with 1:13 left. Minnesota had under 100 yards offense after 3Q’s (Ohio St was my defense of the week). Ohio St is 18-1 at home versus Minnesota, with the only loss coming in 2000. Minnesota was dominated in a 20-0 loss at Penn St in which the Lions had 21-7 firstdown, 464-138 yard and 41:59-18:01 time of possession edges. The Gophers had just 3 drives longer than 4 plays and in their only true scoring chance were stopped on downs at the PSU1 on 4th & goal with 12:36 left. QB Weber continues to struggle (189 yards per game, 56%, 6-9 ratio) despite having the league’s top WR in Decker (47, 15.6). The Gophers allow 164 rush yards per game (3.9). Ohio St lost their first Big Ten road game since 2005, 26-18 at Purdue as they were dominated at the line of scrimmage as the Boilers had a 24-12 first down edge and sacked Pryor 5 times as Ohio St lost 5 turnovers. Pryor’s struggles continue as he averaging167 yards per game (56%) with a 10-8 ratio and has 367 rush yards. The Buckeyes run game has been AWOL the last two as the TB’s have just 38 yards per game (3.9) with Herron (ankle) limited. Ohio St has given up 365 yards per game the last two with the offense flailing although they’ve still allowed just 3 meaningful offensive TD’s in four Big Ten games. Ohio St rebounds versus the Gophers.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Ohio St 27 Minnesota 6

#20 PITTSBURGH VS USF

Pitt upset #10 USF last year holding USF to 245 total yards and here in 2007 Pitt led 14-10 in the first half but USF turned three second half interception into TD’s and won 48-37. Last week USF lost their nationally televised Big East showdown with then-#8 Cincinnati, 34-17. Redshirt frosh Daniels is averaging 135 yards per game (53%) with a 7-4 ratio and his escapability makes it difficult for defensive lines and secondaries. The USF defense is allowing 119 yards per game rush (3.6) and now faces the best freshman RB in the nation. Pitt snapped a 4 game losing streak to Rutgers with a 24-17 win last Friday. Freshman RB Lewis is averaging 131 yards per game which ranks #3 in the NCAA. QB Stull, despite fan scrutiny, is averaging 201 yards per game (67%) with a 14-3 ratio. These 2 are similar on defense (USF #26-32) and both are dominant on the defensive line (Pitt 28 sacks, USF 17 sacks). Pitt has the offense (#31-71) and Special Team (#27-97) edges. Early weather forecasts call for 44-53˚ temps, a definite Pitt edge as USF plays poorly up North in later months.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Pittsburgh 28 USF 20

#22 ARIZONA VS UCLA

Arizona has won 3 of 4 versus UCLA including a 52-14 upset of #7 ranked and undefeated UCLA in 2005. Trailing by as many as 15 points last week versus Stanford, Arizona pulled out the 5 point win led by QB Foles who threw for a career-high 415 yards (78%) and 3 TD’s (351 pass yards per game in 3 starts). In UCLA’s last trip to Tucson, the Wildcats amassed 345 first half yards in the 34-27 victory. After allowing just 15.6 points per game in their first three home games of the season, the Bruins ran into a buzz saw against Cal in the 45-26 defeat (allowed a season-high 494 yards). While the Bruins defense has kept the team in games this year (15.5 points per game on the road), Arizona has our #20 offense, a bye on deck and should go all out here to stay in the upper half of the Pac-10.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Arizona 27 UCLA 17

#23 WEST VIRGINIA VS CONNECTICUT

Connecticut is 0-5 versus West Virginia being outscored by an average of 43-15. Last time here West Virginia’s 66 points were the most allowed since 2000 (66). Last year West Virginia rolled to an easy 35-13 win. Last week Connecticut defeated Louisville 38-25, allowing a garbage TD with no time left. QB Endres is averaging 187 yards per game (66%) with a 4-1 ratio and the tandem of Dixon and Todman are averaging 186 rush yards per game. The defense is allowing 109 yards per game rush (3.1) and has 19 sacks. West Virginia lost QB Brown (concussion, check status) on the first drive and struggled to a 24-7 win over Marshall. Freshman Smith (PS#4) threw for 147 yards (71%) with 1 TD. West Virginia has lost 17 turnovers  (#109). RB Devine is  averaging 122 yards per game (6.6) with 9 TD’s and the defense is allowing 80 rush yards per game (2.6) holding RB Marshall to 82 yards (3.3) last week. WV has the offensive edge (#33-70) and a slight defensive edge (#22-43).This will be an emotional game for Connecticut with the death of their top CB and leader Jasper Howard.

PHIL’S FORECAST: West Virginia 27 Connecticut 17

#24 SOUTH CAROLINA VS VANDERBILT

South Carolina had won 7 in a row in this series and Spurrier was 14-0 versus Vanderbilt but VU has pulled outright upsets in each of the last two years. Last year South Carolina outgained Vanderbilt 133-50 in the first half and had a 325-225 overall edge but a fumbled punt and 3-1 turnover deficit cost them as did losing WR McKinley to injury in the 2Q in a 24-17 loss. Vanderbilt is off 3 losses including last week’s 34-10 loss to Georgia and returning to a bowl is highly unlikely at 2-5, while South Carolina is off an expected 20-6 loss to Bama. South Carolina is 3-9 in their last six games the last two years, but QB Garcia (212 yards per game, 58%, 9-4 ratio) is improved over last year and should lead South Carolina to a win in this legitimate revenge situation.

PHIL’S FORECAST: South Carolina 23 Vanderbilt 6

#25 KANSAS VS OKLAHOMA

Mangino is 0-3 versus his former boss with the average score 35-15 (outgained on average 496-281). Oklahoma is off a tough Red River Rivalry loss as the Sooners’ 3 defeats this year are by a combined 5 pts. QB Bradford re-injured his shoulder on Oklahoma’s 2nd series and is out for this game. Jones (PS#3) is averaging 185 yards per game (59%) with an 11-5 ratio and has 3 starts this year. Kansas lost for the first time last week. QB Reesing is averaging 330 yards per game (67%) with a 15-4 ratio. Kansas is ranked #36 in our pass efficiency defense allowing 246 yards per game (61%) with an 8-5 ratio while Oklahoma is #1 (190 yards per game, 55%, 7-9). Both teams have potent offenses (Oklahoma #16, Kansas #17) but Kansas is allowing 33 points per game and 410 yards per game over its last three as Oklahoma has huge defense (#3-53) and Special Team (#21-103) edges. Given the fact Oklahoma has faced the better slate (#25-104), the Sooners should expose a somewhat overrated Jayhawk squad that faces its toughest opponent by far this year with a killer second half schedule.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Oklahoma 34 Kansas 17

UPSET PICKS OF THE WEEK

UNLV over New Mexico

FAU over Louisiana

Every week we will post my Forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game.

So far this year the Top 25 Forecasts have gone 84-20 81% picking the winners of each game. That record may sound great, but do keep in mind most games have involved teams that were big favorites so the majority of people will have a solid record on these games as well. On the bottom of the forecast, I have listed some Upset Specials which have pulled the upset 8 out of 14 times. Combined the first five weeks record is 95-29 77%!!

Let’s get to my Top 25 Forecasts!

#1 Florida at #4 LSU

My Forecast:

The winner of this game has won the last 3 national titles. UF has lost to an SEC West team every year since 1999, but Meyer’s teams are 27-3 with more than a week to prepare. Last year Miles suffered his worst loss in 4 years at LSU, 51-21 (LSU only trailed 20-14 mid-3Q). LSU is off a last minute 20-13 win over Georgia in which they had a 19-11 FD edge and a 368-274 yard edge, but the game winning touchdown drive was set up by a questionable celebration penalty. Florida luckily had a bye to get rested and hopefully Tebow will be healthy (concussion vs Kentucky). The dog has 3 outright upsets in this series since 2002. This is the toughest defense by far that LSU QB Jefferson has faced (averaging 184 yards per game, 7-2 ratio). LSU has won 32 consecutive Saturday night games at home, but Florida has edges on offense, defense and special teams.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Florida 30 LSU 16

#2 Texas vs Colorado

My Forecast:

Since UT was upset in the Big 12 Title game in 2001 (knocked from National Title game) they are 5-0 winning by an average of 44-10 versus Colorado. QB McCoy is averaging 286 yards per game (71%) with a 9-5 ratio. Colorado lost to West Virginia last Thursday Night and is on a 3-10 run. QB Cody Hawkins is averaging 261 yards per game (52%) with a 7-7 ratio. Last year Texas had Oklahoma on deck and rolled Colorado in Boulder 38-14.

PHIL’S FORECAST: TEXAS 45 Colorado 17

#3 Alabama at #20 Mississippi

My Forecast:

The last 4 have only been decided by 3 points per game. Last time in Oxford, a controversial call overturned a Ole Miss completion to the Bama4 with :07 left and Alabama hung on for a 27-24 win. Last year Ole MIss  trailed 24-3 at the half but scored 17 consecutive points in the 2H, falling just short 24-20. Nutt has 6 upsets vs Top 10 since 1998 and beat eventual National Champ Florida in the Swamp last year. Ole Miss QB Snead has struggled TY avg only 182 yards per game (51%) with a 9-5 ratio while Bama QB McElroy has excelled avg 217 yards per game (66%) with a 9-1 ratio. I picked Ole Miss to win the West at the start of the year and despite Alabama playing the best ball so far this year, I will call for the upset at home.

PHIL’S FORECAST: MISSISSIPPI 23 Alabama 20

#5 Virginia Tech vs Boston College

My Forecast:

In their last visit here, Boston College upset #8 Virginia Tech on National TV with 2 Matt Ryan TD’s in the final 2:11 for the come-from-behind win. Last year BC overcame 5 TO’s to beat #17 Virginia Tech 28-23 in the regular season at home, but has dropped two straight ACC Title games to the Hokies. Tech QB Taylor is avg 174 yards per game (54%) with a 6-1 ratio. RB Ryan Williams (PS#11) is 8th in NCAA in rushing yards (575, 5.2). BC QB Shinskie, in his 2 games as a full-time starter, avg 216 yards per game (60%) with a 5-1 ratio. RB Harris has 449 rush yards (4.7). Both teams stand at 4-1. While BC has shown progress under Shinskie, this will only be their 2nd road game and the Eagles had just 54 yd and 4 FD in their first road game (vs Clemson) this year.

PHIL’S FORECAST: VIRGINIA TECH 30 Boston College 13

#9 Ohio State vs Wisconsin

My Forecast:

Last year Ohio State went 80/12pl and QB Pryor scored on an 11 yd run with 1:08 left for the 20-17 win in Madison. Last week Wisconsin trailed 13-10 at the half, but unleashed the conference’s leading rusher Clay (582, 5.2) who had 159 yards and 3 TD’s in the 2H. The Big Ten’s most efficient passer QB Tolzien (209 yards per game, 66%, 9-3 ratio) got his 1st road win last week but now faces his 1st Top 35 defense. OSU won their 16th straight conference road game in a methodical 33-14 win at Indy (OSU 30-11 FD edge). The Bucks allowed their first points in 9Q but Indiana scored the last TD vs the backups with no time left on the clock. Pryor (171 yards per game, 58%, 8-5 ratio) is Ohio St’s leading rusher with 298 (5.4). RB Saine (294, 6.0) had 113 in his first start in place of the injured Herron (233, 3.6). Bucks are #10 NCAA rush D (83, 2.7) but the DL suffered a blow when top DT Larimore (knee out this week) was injured vs Indiana. OSU has huge edges on defense (#4-71) and special teams (#11-70) and hands the Badgers their first loss.

PHIL’S FORECAST: OHIO ST 33 Wisconsin 16

#10 TCU at Air Force

My Forecast:

The Horned Frogs know how to shut down the option as they have limited the Falcon rush attack to 146 yards below their season avg the last 3 years! Last year Air Force was held to 161 yards with 111 coming on 2 runs and TCU won 44-10  at home. Last time here, AF overcame a 14 point 4Q deficit in their 20-17 OT win in one of Patterson’s toughest losses of his career. Air Force is #2 in the NCAA avg 292 yards per game rush (4.6) but TCU’s rush D is allowing an NCAA best 47 yards per game (1.8). Last week TCU was in a flat-spot against SMU and it showed with the Frogs struggling early (trailed 7-6 late 2Q). Meanwhile, AF played its most important game of the year last week and lost in OT to Navy and will be in a flat spot this week. TCU will remain undefeated with a comfortable win.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Tcu 27 AIR FORCE 13

#11 Miami (FL) vs Florida A&M

My Forecast:

Miami is off their 21-20 upset of Oklahoma, a very even game where each team had 21 FD’s and Miami had a 342-341 yard edge. They have a trip to UCF on deck and will probably suffer some letdown from last week’s win. The Rattlers come in at 4-0 and ranked #22 in the FCS. However, they may want to escape this game as healthy as possible as they have a showdown at #17 South Carolina St on deck in a game which very well could decide the MEAC Champion. Florida A&M is led by former Kentucky transfer Curtis Pulley (PS#17), who leads the MEAC in total offence (284 yards per game).

PHIL’S FORECAST: MIAMI 45 Florida A&M 10

#12 Iowa vs Michigan

My Forecast:

Iowa is just 2-10 vs Michigan (last met ‘06). The Hawks have dropped 3 straight conference home openers including getting upset the last 2 years. Iowa’s 5-0 for the 1st time since 1995 (1st time under Ferentz) and Iowa has won 9 straight thanks to a closer than expected win over Arkansas St last week. The Hawks led 21-7 in the 4Q when Stanzi threw a 75 yd pick six. Stanzi (215 yards per game, 59%, 8-7 ratio) has been inconsistent but the banged up offense got welcome news with the return of All-Big Ten LT Bulaga last week. The Hawks (122 rush yards per game, 4.1) haven’t allowed a rushing TD in 31Q’s. After a valiant 4Q comeback, Michigan lost in OT to their rivals Michigan St, 26-20 as the Wolves were out-first-downed 22-14 and outrushed 193-28. Despite a shoulder injury, QB Forcier (179 yards per game, 60%, 9-3) led his third 4Q comeback but he also threw an interception in overtime. After a hot start the Wolves’ ground game has stumbled vs BCS foes (122, 3.2) including just 28 yards last week. Michigan’s D is allowing 153 rush yards per game (4.2) with just 6 sacks TY. Iowa wins their 10th straight at the hands of the young Wolves.

PHIL’S FORECAST: IOWA 27 Michigan 20

#13 Oregon at UCLA

My Forecast:

UCLA dropped their 1st game of the season at Stanford last year and the Bruins may see the return of starting QB Prince (139 yards per game, 56%, 2-2 ratio) here after missing the last 2 games with injury. #2 QB, and last year’s starter, Craft (195 yards per game, 60%, 1-1 ratio) has played well in his absence. Last year UCLA,  on the road, only lost 31-24 as Oregon QB Masoli struggled in the passing game completing just 5 of 19 for 42 yards (Oregon did rush for 323 yards, 7.0).The Ducks continued their run with a convincing home win vs Washington St a week after their domination of Cal. While Oregon comes in off a pair of impressive wins this is their first road trip since getting held to 152 total yards at Boise. The Bruins defense is better than the Broncos and Oregon will likely be without QB Masoli.

FORECAST: UCLA 24 Oregon 14

#14 Penn St vs Eastern Illinois

My Forecast:

Penn St got back on track last week after losing to Iowa as they defeat Illinois 35-17 with a 513-393 yd edge. Penn St is in a Big Ten sandwich as they host Minnesota next week. Last year vs Coastal Carolina the Nittany Lions showed little mercy running up a 66-10 final. Eastern Illinois comes in 4-1 and ranked #25 in the FCS. EIU is off a disheartening loss to OVC rival Eastern Kentucky (#16) in a game they led 24-16 before giving up 3 TD in less then 10 min including an int for a TD. The Panthers finish out the regular season with 5 straight OVC games and will likely just want to get out of town relatively healthy. While Penn St will likely put in the backups in the 2H look for them to put up some big numbers early.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Penn St 45 Eastern Illinois 3

#15 Oklahoma State at Texas A&M

My Forecast:

Road opener for Oklahoma St who is just 8-16 on the road losing by an avg of 19 points per game. The Cowboys are off a much needed bye (4 starters out two weeks ago). QB Robinson is avg 198 yards per game (63%) with a 6-2 ratio. WR Bryant (missed last game) has 17 rec (19.0) and should be 100%. The Aggies are off their first defeat of the season (first game vs a BCS school) after 3 cupcakes. QB Johnson is avg 327 yards per game (62%) with an 11-0 ratio. A&M comes in ranked #70 in my pass efficiency defense allowing 222 yards per game (56%) with a 5-1 ratio, after Ark’s Mallett shredded them for 4 TD’s last week, while Oklahoma St is #7 (233 yards per game, 56%, 4-4 ratio). Kyle Field is a tough place for opponents but Oklahoma St is ready to start playing up to its talent level.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Oklahoma St 40 TEXAS A&M 30

#16 Kansas vs Iowa State

My Forecast:

Homecoming and Big 12 opener for Kansas. Iowa St is off a loss to Kansas St and has dropped ten straight conference games  by an avg of 19 points per game. Kansas is off a bye and is on a 21-1 run versus non-ranked foes, outscoring them by 27 points per game. QB Reesing is avg 284 yards per game (67%) with a 9-2 ratio. Iowa St QB Arnaud is avg 158 yards per game (53%) with a 7-4 ratio. Both teams are running the ball better this year (KU 209 yards per game, ISU 207 yards per game) but Iowa St RB Robinson is suffering from a groin injury (did not play last week after 1Q).

PHIL’S FORECAST: KANSAS 38 Iowa St 17

#17 Auburn at Arkansas

My Forecast:

Arkansas is just 2-4 vs Auburn and hasn’t beaten Auburn at home since 2001. Ark trailed 20-10 late 3Q last year, but scored 15 pts in the final 18:02 to win 25-22 as they had a 416-193 yard edge. Arkansas RB Smith rushed for 176 yards (5.0) in that game. The visitor is 6-1. This is the 2nd straight tough road game for Auburn. Auburn led Tennessee 23-6 in the 4Q and Tennessee scored a TD with no time left to make the game seem closer than it was (26-22). Arkansas crushed Texas A&M 47-19 last week winning. Auburn OC Malzahn was the OC at Arkansas in 2006 under Nutt but left for Tulsa after 2007. Arkansas upset Malzahn’s #19 undefeated Tulsa team last year 30-23 but Tulsa had a 528-435 yd edge. Both teams have quick-striking offenses and thin defenses, so points will be plentiful and this could go down to the wire.

PHIL’S FORECAST: ARKANSAS 37 Auburn 34

#18 BYU at UNLV

My Forecast:

Last year’s game was tied four times before UNLV allowed a 74/11pl drive with 1:46 left in the 42-35 loss on the road. UNLV HC Sanford’s seat is getting warmer after two straight disappointing losses. Last week the Rebels were actually tied with Nevada late in the 3Q before giving up 35 straight points in a 63-28 loss. Meanwhile, BYU has rebounded after the Florida St game with two straight home wins. BYU does travel well to Vegas and has played 6 games in this stadium the last 4 years including bowls. The Rebs will be fired-up to take on the ranked Cougs in a game that could be similar to last year’s shootout.

PHIL’S FORECAST:  Byu 40 UNLV 26

#19 Oklahoma vs Baylor

My Forecast:

Oklahoma is 18-0 vs Baylor with the average win by 24 points per game. Last time in Norman Baylor had 450 yards (most vs an Oklahoma squad and about 100 yards over their season average) in a 52-21 Oklahoma win. Oklahoma is off a tough game vs Miami, Fl and has rival Texas on deck. QB Jones is averaging 215 yards per game (60%) with a 10-3 ratio, but Bradford may start here after suffering the shoulder injury in Week 1. Baylor took care of Kent St last week (outgained by 50 yards) with QB Florence (PS#76) making his 1st career start (276 total yards and 2 rush TD) in place of Griffin (ACL) and Szymanski (shoulder injury). If Szymanski starts it will actually will be his 3rd vs Oklahoma (avg 234 ypg, 54% with a 2-4 ratio being sacked 5x’s) or the 1st road start for Florence. Oklahoma has allowed ZERO points and has outgained foes on avg 456-156 in Norman this year and is riding a 26 game home win streak outscoring foes by at least 25 points in 13 of the last 15. Tough spot for the Bears, in an injury letdown game, who have been down this road before after losing a starting QB. An angry Sooner squad off a loss will shows the talent difference between these two teams.

FORECAST: OKLAHOMA 45 Baylor 10

#21 Nebraska at #24 Missouri

This is a big showdown in the Big 12 North. Missouri is better than expected but NU has really impressed and they have not had a bad game all year. They could’ve easily won in Blacksburg with an18-11 FD and 343-277 yard edge. I’ll side with the Huskers on the road.

FORECAST: Nebraska 27 Missouri 20

#22 Georgia Tech at Florida St

My Forecast:

Last year Bowden and the Noles lost to Georgia Tech for the first time since 1975 (12-0 prior). GT has never won in Tallahassee (0-6). Last year FSU’s offense ran 9 plays from scrimmage in the first 15 minutes for -18 yards and GT led 31-20 but lost QB Nesbitt to injury. FSU had a 2^nd & goal from the 3 but fumbled into the endzone with :45 left losing 31-28. This is Georgia Tech’s 3rd road game in 4 weeks.  Nesbitt is avg 142 yards per game (51%) with a 3-2 ratio and has 363 rush yards (3.6). FSU QB Ponder is averaging 285 yards per game (67%) with a 4-1 ratio. Surprisingly, GT comes in at 4-1 while FSU is 2-3. GT has a solid offensive edge (#10-45) but FSU has the slight defensive edge (#31-41) and needs to circle the wagons. Florida St has comparable talent to Miami and Miami rolled Georgia Tech on the road 33-17 this year.

FORECAST: FLORIDA ST 34 Georgia Tech 27

#25 South Carolina vs Kentucky

My Forecast:

Last year SC missed 4 FG’s but got an 81 yd blocked FG returned for a TD and an 84 yard kick return to set up another TD to pull out a 24-17 win and held Kentucky to just 218 yards offense. South Carolina has won 9 in a row in this series  and Spurrier is 16-0 all-time vs Kentucky. South Carolina is off a 38-14 win over FCS South Carolina St while Kentucky is off 2 losses to #1 Florida and #3 Alabama and could be banged up playing in such physical games. Kentucky allowed 362 rush (7.0) to Florida and 204 (4.9) to Bama but matches up better this week because South Carolina doesn’t have a powerful OL or strong running game. QB Garcia has improved weekly and will have time to throw vs a weak Kentucky pass rush (7 sacks in 4 game) and Spurrier continues his domination of the Wildcats.

PHIL’S FORECAST: SOUTH CAROLINA 27 Kentucky 13

UPSET SPECIALS:

Illinois over Michigan St

Kent St over Bowling Green

Georgia over Tennessee

Every week we will post my Forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game.

So far this year the Top 25 Forecasts have gone 71-16 82% picking the winners of each game. That record may sound great, but do keep in mind most games have involved teams that were big favorites so the majority of people will have a solid record on these games as well. On the bottom of the forecast, I have listed some Upset Specials which have pulled the upset 5 out of 11 times including Marshall last week. Combined the first four weeks record is 76-22 78%!!

Let’s get to my Top 25 Forecasts!

#3 ALABAMA at KENTUCKY

MY FORECAST:

Last year UK was held to 35 yds rush (1.8) while UA rushed for 282 (5.8). UK’s last win over Bama was in ‘97. Last week Bama’s defense held Ark’s prolific offense to just 254 yds in their 35-7 win. Tide QB McElroy is avg 235 ypg (68%) with a 7-1 ratio. Bama does have an important SEC West gm vs Ole Miss on deck. UK is facing their second straight Top 10 team but last week was outgained 495-179 in a 41-7 loss to UF. UK has allowed 248 ypg rush (5.4) the last 2 games and Bama has the RB’s to take advantage (Ingram 347, 5.7 and Richardson 280, 7.4).

PHIL’S FORECAST: Alabama 27 KENTUCKY 13

#4 LSU at #18 GEORGIA

MY FORECAST:

Georgia is 6-2 vs LSU. Last year UGA LB Gamble returned 2 interceptions 40 and 53 yds for TD’s in UGA’s 52-38 rout of LSU. The visitor is 5-2. Georgia has won the last 3 vs LSU by an average of 44-23 CLICK HERE FOR LAST 12 YEARS MATCHUPS. QB Cox struggled last week hitting 17 of 31 for 242 yds with a 1-2 ratio, one week after earning national acclaim for his 375 yds and 5 TD performance vs Arkansas. LSU’s running game has struggled and they were outrushed 151-30 by Miss St last week (374-263 overall edge MSU) but got a 93 yd PR TD, a 37 yd interception returned for a TD and held MSU out of the endzone on 1st & Goal at the 2 with 1:30 left to escape with a 30-26 win. LSU QB Jefferson has averaged 177 ypg (61%) with a 7-1 ratio. #4 LSU becomes the latest team to be knocked out of the Top 5.

PHIL’S FORECAST: GEORGIA 27 Lsu 20

#5 BOISE ST vs UC DAVIS

MY FORECAST:

Boise State is 3-0 vs UC Davis but the last meeting was a 13-9 win in 1985. UC Davis started the season with a 51-0 loss to Fresno St, a team Boise St beat 51-34. Last year the Aggies gave WAC member San Jose St a scare only losing 13-10. UC Davis is our pick to win the Great West this year CLICK HERE FOR UC DAVIS’ TEAM PAGE FROM THE ACC/BIG EAST REGIONAL MAGAINE and does have their conference opener on deck, so will want to remain healthy. UC Davis does have talent as they only lost to the #4 ranked FCS team Montana 17-10 a week after the Fresno game. Boise St is off an easy win over BG last week as they rolled of 42 unanswered points and finished with a 529-282 yd edge. The Broncos have a bye before a mid-week game vs Tulsa and should get their backups a lot of playing time in the 2H.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Boise St 52  UC Davis 3

#6 VIRGINIA TECH at Duke

MY FORECAST:

Last year Duke’s defense forced five 1H TO’s but they were without QB Lewis and RB Harris and lost 14-3. Duke  on the road trailed just 7-3 but VT got a 23 yd interception returned for a TD with 1:23 to clinch it. VT is off big home wins vs #19 Nebraska and #9 Miami and has BC and GT on deck. In VT’s 2 recent games here they have won by a 44-7 avg with a 403-114 yard edge (yes, Duke just 114 yards per game offense!) CLICK HERE FOR 12 YEAR HISTORY. Duke QB Lewis is averaging 196 yards per game (59%) with a 5-2 ratio. CLICK HERE FOR DUKE INDIVIDUAL STATS FOR 2009. VT QB Taylor is averaging 136 yards per game pass (47%) with a 4-1 ratio and has rushed for 85 yds (2.4). RFr Ryan Williams (PS#11)has filled in nicely for the injured Evans and has rushed for 492 yds (5.9) and has 6 rec (20.0).

PHIL’S FORECAST: Virginia Tech 30 DUKE 13

#7 USC at #24 CALIFORNIA

MY FORECAST:

Cal has now lost 5 straight to USC including last year’s 17-3 loss in a game where they were only able to collect 165 total yards. In their last visit to rain-soaked Berkeley, USC intercepted a late Cal pass to hold on to the 24-17 win. After averaging 48+ points per game through their first 3, Cal was held to just 3 last week in Eugene as UO ran away with the 39 point win. USC saw the return of frosh phenom QB Barkley (225 yards per game, 60%, 3-1 ratio) last week vs WSU as the Trojans scored 3 TD’s in the first 12 minutes and coasted. Cal cant be as bad as they looked last week can they? I look for the Bears to rebound with a big upset.

PHIL’S FORECAST: CALIFORNIA 23 Usc 20

#8 OKLAHOMA at #17 MIAMI FL

MY FORECAST:

In the last meeting in 2007, UM was mauled, being outgained 411-139 and out-first-downed 25-7. OU is off a bye while UM just played Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech. UM looked very impressive up until last week (handcuffed by the Hokie defense with just 209 yards) and are led by QB Harris who is averaging 269 yards per game (60%) with a 5-3 ratio. OU has pitched back-to-back shutouts vs weaker foes but did hold BYU to just 14 pts. QB Jones has filled in nicely for Bradford, averaging 224 yards per game (61%) with a 9-3 ratio. OU has the better defense (#2-21) but the OL edge goes to the ‘Canes as they face a QB in his first road start in the heat/humidity of Florida and need to refocus facing another tough ranked opponent here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: MIAMI, FL 21 Oklahoma 20

#9 OHIO STATE at INDIANA

MY FORECAST:

Half of the crowd should be in Scarlet and Gray. OSU has back-to-back shutouts for the first time since 1996 as they swamped Illinois 30-0 in the rain, outgaining the Illini 318-170. QB Pryor (174 yards per game, 57%, 5-4 ratio, 235 rush) had zero 1H pass yds vs Illinois before the rain let up. Leading rusher Herron (ankle) left last week but Saine (PS#2) had OSU’s top performance by an RB this year (81 yards). Indy gave Mich all it could handle allowing the game winning TD pass with 2:29 left as IU had a 467-362 yd edge but settled for 5 FG’s (missed 1) inside UM’s 20. QB Chappell (236 yards per game, 65%, 3-4 ratio) may continue to grow with the emergence of a finally healthy RB Willis (PS#53) who had 152 yard vs UM. IU is #2 Big Ten rush defense allowing 94 yards per game (2.7) which is ahead of the Buckeyes. OSU shows the talent difference they have in this one.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Ohio St 34  INDIANA  6

#10 CINCINNATI at MIAMI, OH

MY FORECAST:

MU and UC are colliding for the 114th time in the Battle for the Victory Bell (oldest non-conference rivalry west of the Allegheny). UC has won the last 3 by an average of 25 points per game including last year as QB Pike made his first start (241 yards, 3 TD’s). Last week Cincy’s tired defense held on for a 28-20 win over Fresno St. Cincy was outgained 443-357, out-first-downed 25-15 and FSU held the ball for 44 of the 60 minutes! Pike is averaging 306 yards per game (71%) with an 11-2 ratio and WR Gilyard (#8 NCAA) has 32 receptions (13.8) and 6 TD’s. UC’s defense was allowing 271 yards per game prior to last week. Last week Miami lost to Kent St 29-19 despite outgaining the Flashes 552-250 (26-13 FD edge). Frosh QB Dysert (PS#85) made his first start and threw for 337 (58%) with a 1-2 ratio and tallied 107 yards rush (6.3). Prior to last week, Miami had been shutout for 10Q’s until WM’s backups came in.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Cincinnati 52 MIAMI, OH 10

#11 TCU vs SMU

MY FORECAST:

TCU is coming off a huge win at Clemson and now has their sights set on a MWC Title and possible BCS berth. But first, they face an old SWC rival in the battle for the “Iron Skillet.” CLICK HERE FOR LAST 12 YEARS MATCHUPS. TCU has won 8 of last 9, outscoring SMU 281-71. However, SMU has played the Horned Frogs tougher as of late including an upset in ‘05, which was TCU’s only loss of the year. The Ponies have looked strong and if not for an OT loss (blew big lead) against Wash St, would be 3-0. June Jones’ pass happy offense is averaging 432 yards per game with QB Mitchell avg 326 yards per game (61%) but with a 6-8 ratio. Meanwhile, TCU has used a balanced offense averaging 217 rush/208 pass led by QB Dalton who has thrown for 625 (70%) with a 4-1 ratio. SMU has had 2 weeks to prepare, while TCU has Air Force on deck and this is a classic sandwich game. This should be much closer than last year’s 48-7 final.

PHIL’S FORECAST: TCU 30 Smu 13

#12 HOUSTON at UTEP

MY FORECAST:

UTEP is 1-1 at home vs Houston with both games decided by 3 pts. Houston is in a BCS sandwich (Miss St on deck) and is off their huge come-from-behind 29-28 win over Texas Tech that kept their BCS dreams alive. QB Keenum scored the game-winning TD on a QB draw with :49 left. The Cougars are now ranked #12, their highest ranking since 1991. Keenum continues to put up Heisman-like numbers (387 yards per game, 69%, 8-2 ratio) and RB Beall leads with 211 rush yards (4.6). True frosh RB Sims leads with 21 receptions (14.1) as UH has 5 players with 11+ catches. UTEP was demolished 64-7 at Texas last week, as they were outgained by an amazing 639-53! QB Vittatoe’s struggles continued as he threw 4 interceptions and is averaging 160 yards per game (51%) with a 1-5 ratio. RB Buckram leads with 298 rush yards (6.5). Last year UTEP led 28-9 and 35-23 on the road but lost it late and they have the horses to pull the upset if Vittatoe returns to 2008’s form.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Houston 38 UTEP 35

#13 IOWA vs ARKANSAS ST

MY FORECAST:

This first-ever meeting features teams that are between conference games and off contests with the defending league champ. Iowa is off of Penn St with Michigan next. ASU is off Troy with ULM next. Arkansas St was outgained 494-274 (allowed 358 pass) losing 38-9 at BCS foe Nebraska earlier this year. This is Iowa’s first conference sandwich game since ’06. Last week ASU gave up 17 points off turnovers in a 30-27 loss to Troy and they will have to regroup quickly against a strong defense (#9). Iowa proved to be a Big Ten challenger with its performance at Penn St in which they forced 4 turnovers, got a safety, PSU missed a FG and the Hawks returned a blocked punt 36 yds for a TD. Iowa looked past Northern Iowa earlier this year (blocked 2 straight FG’s for win) and could look ahead to next week.

PHIL’S FORECAST: IOWA 34 Arkansas St 6

#15 PENN ST at ILLINOIS

MY FORECAST:

Illinois gave Penn St one of their toughest games last year but the Lions won 38-24. Last week the Lions blew a 10-0 lead over Iowa and lost 4 turnovers, had a sack result in a safety and a punt blocked for a TD. QB Clark (240 yards per game, 60%, 9-6 ratio) struggled as defenses don’t respect the run game (127, 3.8). The beaten up Lions’ D hasn’t allowed a 1H TD (just 3 TY) despite All-Big Ten LB’s Lee and Bowman playing just two series together. Illinois has lost their last 5 vs FBS teams after a 30-0 shutout in a monsoon vs OSU, in which they were outgained 318-170. QB Williams is the Big Ten’s least efficient passer and he has led just one 4Q garbage time TD drive vs MO this year. Williams didn’t look 100% vs the Bucks tossing 3 interceptions and the staff didn’t rule out a QB change after the game. PSU has a big defensive (#11-70) edge and rebounds while Zook’s seat continues to heat up.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Penn St 27 ILLINOIS 20

#16 OREGON vs WASHINGTON ST

MY FORECAST:

Surprisingly, the Ducks mauled Cal last week holding the Bears to just 3 pts (Cal was avg 48 points per game). Last year Oregon clobbered WSU in Pullman 63-14 as the Ducks had a 507-271 yard edge, which was Coug QB Lobbestael’s first career start (192 yards, 54%, 2-2 ratio). CLICK HERE FOR LAST 12 YEARS MATCHUPS. WSU could be using another first time starter here as frosh QB Tuel took over last week in the loss to USC and played well (130 yards, 64%). Oregon played at an A++ level last week and good thing for them it is only the lowly Cougars this week so a “C” game still grabs a win.

PHIL’S FORECAST: OREGON 38 Wash  St 10

#20 BYU vs UTAH ST

MY FORECAST:

These two have averaged 67 points per game in their last 10 meetings (since 1993) with BYU winning 9 straight. The Cougars have won 25 of the last 28 dating back to 1975! Utah St is a decent team but I expect BYU to win out this year and that means a victory at home.

PHIL’S FORECAST: BYU 43 Utah St 20

#21 MISSISSIPPI at VANDERBILT

MY FORECAST:

Last year UM had 6 turnovers, but still had a 1st & Goal at the 7 but fumbled into the endzone and lost 23-17, despite a commanding 385-202 yard edge making this a legitimate revenge situation. Ole Miss was held to 248 total yards by South Carolina and QB Snead hit just 7 of 21 for 107 yards. Snead has had a slow start to the season averaging just 164 yards per game (49%) with a 6-2 ratio. UM has an important SEC West game vs Bama on deck making this a sandwich spot. Vandy  outgained Rice 484-282 and the defense grabbed 4 interceptions. UM needs to get their offense back on track and UM’s #8 defense should shut down Vandy’s #98 off.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Mississippi 27 VANDERBILT 10

#22 MICHIGAN at MICHIGAN ST

MY FORECAST:

In ‘07 Mich escaped 28-24 here and after UM RB Hart made his infamous “Little Brother” comments. Last year MSU won in Ann Arbor for the first time since 1990, 35-21. CLICK HERE FOR LAST 12 YEARS MATCHUPS. UM had won 6 in a row prior, including the last 3 in E Lansing. Mich survived Indy as true frosh QB Forcier hit his second gm winning TD pass this year with 2:29 left and the Wolves hung on thanks to a controversial interceptions as IU had the yardage edge (467-362). Forcier (168 yards per game, 62%, 7-2 ratio) hasn’t been 100% the last 2 weeks (ribs, shoulder) and this is his first road start. The Wolves’ D has struggled allowing 34 points per game and 479 yards per game vs 2 BCS conference foes this year. MSU had Big Ten title dreams in August but is now 1-3 after last week’s misleading 38-30 loss in which the Spartans scored 2 TD’s in last 2:16. Both QB’s played with Nichol (PS#7) throwing 2 late TD’s but also 2 interceptions and the spot remains in flux. MSU has allowed 300 pass yards per game (69%) with a 10-2 ratio to FBS teams. Call for Michigan to grab an important win on the road and stay unbeaten.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Michigan 28 MICHIGAN ST 24

#25 GEORGIA TECH at MISS ST

MY FORECAST:

Miss St is 0-3 vs Georgia Tech and last year’s 38-7 loss by MSU was their worst loss to a non-conference opponent since 1969. MSU hasn’t defeated a non-conference BCS opponent since 2000. Last year GT lost starting QB Nesbitt after only 8 plays but still had 500 yards offense (438 rush) while MSU had 407 with 4 TO’s. Miss St almost upset LSU with a 374-263 yard edge and had a 1st & Goal at the LSU2 with 1:30 left, but LSU held on and escaped with the 30-26 win. Georgia Tech is off a dominating 24-7 win over #18 North Carolina in which they had 317-17 rush (406-154 total yard), 24-8 first down and 42:06-17:54 time of possession edges. Both teams have faced 3 tough defenses the last three weeks, so this could be higher scoring than expected. GT has faced a much tougher schedule (#15-73). The Jackets nab the win in SEC country.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Georgia Tech 30 MISSISSIPPI ST 20

Phil’s Top 25 Forecasts 76-22 78%!!

UPSET SPECIALS:

MARSHALL over East Carolina

BOSTON COLLEGE over Florida St

UCLA over Stanford

KANSAS ST over Iowa St

OHIO over Bowling Green

AIR FORCE over Navy

In some of my daily blogs this summer I have gone over the top team team individual game efforts for 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005 and 2004.

I then went over the Top Ten in the AP poll and the Top Ten of my computers average of the season individual games rating. The results basicially showed that if a team was in the Top Ten of the AP but not in my computers Top Ten at the end of the year, they were overrated and almost everytime finished lower in the polls than they began the season with most teams opening the year ranked and finished outside the rankings.

It also showed that if a team was in my computers Top Ten, but not in the AP Top Ten at the end of the year, they were underrated and in most cases finished much higher than expected. After the 2006 season in which Florida beat Ohio State in the national title game, my computer had LSU the #1 team in the country and the next year the Tigers won the title!

Here is the final AP Top Ten from 2008
1. Florida
2. Utah
3. USC
4. Texas
5. Oklahoma
6. Alabama
7. TCU
8. Penn St
9. Ohio State
10. Oregon

Here is my computers average team rating for 2008 Top 10
USC 105.13
Florida 104.65
Oklahoma 100.49
Texas 97.63
TCU 93.8
Penn St 93.27
Texas Tech 91.96
Alabama 90.55
Mississippi 89.5
Alabama 90.55

Here are the teams that were in the AP Top Ten but not in my Top Ten. These teams figure to be OVERRATED for this year and will likely finish lower than the polls at the beginning of the year.

Utah #2 in the country last year. #18 in the coaches poll this year (not in my Top 40)
Ohio St. #9 in the AP poll last year. #6 in the coaches poll this year
Oregon #10 AP Poll last year. #14 in coached poll this year.
I look for each of these teams to finish lower in the final poll than in the preseason.

That gives us 3 underrated teams for 2009.
TCU was #5 in my computers final poll last year. They open #17 in this years coaches poll.
Texas Tech #7 in my computers final poll last year. They open unranked and picked 4th in the Big 12 South
Mississippi #9 in my computers final poll last year. They open #10 in the coaches poll and picked 3rd in the SEC West.
Also note that my computer had USC #1 at the end of last year and they will be trying to do what LSU did in 2007.

Based on the results of the from 2004-08 5 of the 6 teams above will either go down or up as expected with 1 of them able to go against the grain.