The AP Poll was released over the weekend and today I can officially come up with Overrated and Underrated teams for the upcoming year.

First, here is the Preseason AP Top 25.

Overrated Teams

#23 Auburn-There are several signs pointing downward for last year’s defending champ. This year they lose the best offensive player in the NCAA in Heisman winner QB Cam Newton as well as arguably the best defensive player in DT Nick Fairley. Auburn also benefited from an amazing 7 net close wins and naturally the schedule gets tougher with road games vs Clemson, South Carolina, Arkansas, LSU and Georgia. They lose an incredible 31 lettermen and return just 6 starters (fewest in the country). Last year I had Texas as my #1 overrated team (preseason AP #5) and they went from the National Title game to 5-7 and Auburn will have to have some talented youngsters grow up quickly to avoid a similar fate

#22 Florida-After an 8-5 season (NR) former head coach Meyer stepped down due to health concerns and they bring a new HC in Muschamp who has no previous HC experience and just 10 returning starters. The Gators have just 3 SEC HG’s and play South Carolina and UGA away from home and pull the top two teams (Bama and LSU) out of the West. I think UF may have a tough time topping last year’s 8 wins and will not finish in the AP Top 25 at the end of the year.

#9 Oklahoma St-Last year I took a lot of flack for picking the Cowboys last in the Big 12 South but nearly every magazine picked them 5th or 6th as they were one of the more inexperienced teams in the country. Naturally they went on to a great season with their first 11-win season in school history. This year they return 2 of their 3 “triplets” in Weeden and Blackmon but OSU loses OC Holgorsen and RB Hunter from an off avg 44.2 ppg, which was their best since 1988. OSU was also +12 in TO’s, has five Big 12 away games (incl at Texas A&M, Texas, Missouri, and Texas Tech) and only had 2 starts lost to injury last year. They do get Oklahoma at home again this year but were outgained by 209 yds to the Sooners last year. There is no question that the Cowboys are very talented but because of having such a tough B12 schedule I do not have them in my Top 15.

#7 Stanford-Last year was a dream season for the Cardinal as they had the 2nd highest AP Poll finish (#4) in school history. This year they do return QB Andrew Luck who is clearly the #1 player for next year’s draft but do lose their top 2 WR’s, 3 starting OL and 4 starters from their defensive front 7. They have just 11 returning starters and go from the battled tested coaching legacy of Harbaugh to a 1st-yr HC. While two of my 9 sets of power ratings call for an unbeaten year, with the loss of their HC and finishing up with USC, Oregon St, Oregon, California and Notre Dame all in a row, they will not match LY’s 12 win total and will finish outside the Top 10.

Underrated Teams

#13 Virginia Tech-The Hokies are not dominant but remind me of LY’s Auburn team in terms of schedule. VT should be favored in all 6 road games and get its toughest opponents at home (like eventual National Champ Auburn who had 4 of its 5 toughest at home). At 6-6 245 with a powerful arm and great mobility which sound a little like Cam Newton, QB Logan Thomas could be a breakout player this year. Finally despite ranking only #15 in my Power Poll, 8 of my 9 sets of power ratings calls for a 12-0 regular season!

#16 Notre Dame-Yes I know the Fighting Irish are probably the most underachieving team in the last 20 years but many signs are pointing upwards this year. HC Kelly who has a history of exceeding my expectations (6 of L/7 years) has a veteran squad with 17 returning starters that are now in the 2nd year of his schemes. While they do not have any cupcakes on the schedule they also have no teams in my Preseason Top 15. They could be favored in their first 11 games and remember Bob Stoops, Jim Tressel, Urban Meyer and Gene Chizik all won national titles in their 2nd years. All 9 sets of my power ratings call for double digit wins with 3 of them calling for a 12-0 season!

#19 Georgia-This is a must-win season for HC Mark Richt as he is definitely on the hot seat. The Bulldogs did have 4 net close losses last year and have signed some key newcomers in RB Isaiah Crowell and NT Jonathan Jenkins who should have a huge impact. The Bulldogs avoid the top 3 teams in the SEC West plus get South Carolina at home. UGA is one of my Most Improved Teams and is my upset pick to win the SEC East.

#25 USC-The Trojans were hit hard by the NCAA LY with a loss of scholarships and no bowls for 2 years. I expected them to be thin but Kiffin found some loopholes and was able to sign 31 players this year and will field a very talented team that can win the Pac-12 South (just not play in the title game). QB Barkley pilots a potent offense and Kiffin Sr will have a much improved D.

Texas-Mack Brown had led UNC and UT to winning records for 20 str years, the longest active streak of any FBS coach but last year they stunningly plummeted to 5-7. I think Mack Brown has made some great hires at coordinator and keep in mind that UT was -12 in TO’s LY. In ’07 QB Colt McCoy threw 18 int’s but he was much better as a Jr and they will get much better QB play this year after 17 int’s by a soph QB LY. The Horns  finally have a featured RB in true frosh Brown and UT will have a much better year than most expect.

Southern Miss-The Golden Eagles have had 17 consecutive winning seasons, which is the 4th longest active streak among FBS schools. LY they were +94.1 ypg in CUSA play (#1) and were just 8 pts away from a perfect 8-0 CUSA record and a 11-1 regular season mark. This year none of my 9 sets of power ratings call them #1 in the CUSA but almost all have them #2 and they have a schedule that sets up perfect with winnable road games and all the toughest games are at “The Rock”. Four of my 9 sets of power ratings call for a 12-0 record.

Houston-LY UH was the preseason favorite to win CUSA led by QB Case Keenum. UH put up 122 pts in the first 2 but then Keenum was inj’d and OFY in their loss to UCLA. Keenum was granted a 6th year and college football will benefit from that. His return has me very excited for this year’s squad and 8 of my 9 sets of power ratings call for a double digit win season which will at least double LY’s 5 win total! Three of the 9 call for them to be 11-0 when they travel to Tulsa!

USF-Skip Holtz was very successful at East Carolina including B2B CUSA Titles. This year the Bulls are a very talented team and only lose 15 lettermen (fewest in Big East). Two of my 9 sets of power ratings call for 11 wins, and I will call for them to top last year’s 8 win total.

Ohio-This year the Bobcats return just 11 starters but have a schedule that is tailor made for MAC success. Their 4 MAC away games are vs teams that finished 1-7, 1-7, 1-7 and 2-6 and they are only one of the top 4 MAC East teams that kept their HC. They avoid the Big 3 out of the MAC West (UT, NIU and WM) and I give them an excellent shot at their first double digit win season since 1968.

Clemson-Last year the Tigers had their first losing season since 1998 and this year Dabo Swinney is on the hot seat. They do return 14 starters and bring in a great recruiting class with adding the best set of true frosh LB’s in the country. They did have 4 net close losses last year and do get a key division game vs Florida St (Noles off Oklahoma) at home. Clemson makes my Most Improved list and will easily top LY’s win total.

Only 10 Days Until The First College Football Game!!!

We have already been working hard on the 2011 season and Today’s blog is the current list for Returning Starters for each team in 2011 broken down by offense, defense and special teams (kicker/punter). The * on the offense number denotes that the starting QB is returning. Below the list I broke down teams with the most/least returning starters.

I will be back later this week with all the Senior Bowl/Pro Bowl coverage you need to prepare you for this weekend’s games. On Monday I will expand on the Las Vegas odds to win the 2011 BCS National Championship and give you a breakdown of each of the 50 teams including key starters back/lost.

Returning Starters for 2011

As of right now new Vanderbilt HC James Franklin will be inheriting one of the most experienced teams in the country with a total of the 21 of the 24 players back for this season including all 11 starters on offense. They will be led on offense by all-purpose RB Warren Norman and on defense LB Chris Marve returns after posting 80 tkls a year ago.

New Michigan HC Brady Hoke also inherits one of the more experienced teams in the country with the Wolverines returning 20 starters led by All-American candidate Robinson at QB. It will be interesting to see how the Wolverine players adapt to the new schemes on both sides of the ball.

Texas A&M seems to be a contender to be ranked in the pre-season top 10 next year and they return 19 starters including QB Tannehill who did a fantastic job being called on this year when Johnson was struggling. On defense the Aggies return 8 starters but do lose their leader in OLB Von Miller.

Despite losing RB Ingram, WR Jones and DE Dareus to the NFL draft early, the Crimson Tide still return 17 starters including 9 on what could be the best defense in the country next season led by FS Mark Barron.

On the opposite end is the defending national champion Auburn Tigers who return only 7 starters next year which is an incredible 3 fewer than any other team. Naturally the loss of Newton and Fairley will hurt and you have to think they will find it tough getting to double digit wins but Chizik has out-performed expectations to date.

Rose Bowl Champ TCU also will suffer heavy losses with just 10 starters back next season. Losing their leader on offense in Andy Dalton will hurt but Tank Carder returns on defense. While the Horned Frogs should still get to the 10 win mark, you have to think another 12-0 regular season will be out of their reach with the key losses.

Here are the four candidates for the 2010 Heisman Trophy. Today, I will give you the PROS and CONS for each winning the Award this year but let me first say that this should be one of the largest landslides in the history of the award and unlike last year the race is for 2nd place this year. The Award comes out on Saturday but here are my projections of the order of finish for this year’s top 4 that have been invited to New York.

PROJECTED WINNER

Cam Newton, Auburn.

PROS.

1. Newton leads the NCAA in pass efficiency avg 200 pass ypg completing 67% of his passes with a 28-6 ratio. A lot of people have made a big deal about Boise St’s QB Moore pass efficiency this year but after Newton’s outstanding performance in the SEC Championship game, Newton actually passed him for the top spot.
2. Newton has rushed for 1,409 yds (5.8) with 20 TD’s, which is not far off of Oregon St’s RB James numbers. Newton also did it against many tough SEC defenses and became the first player in SEC history to pass for more than 2,000 yds and rush for 1,000 yds in a season and actually led the SEC in rushing this year.
3. Newton saved some of his best performances for the biggest games. Last week in the SEC championship game he accounted for 6 total TD’s in the largest blowout in SEC Championship game history. Two weeks ago in maybe the biggest game of the regular season he led a 24-0 comeback against arch-rival Alabama on the road which was the largest comeback margin ever against an Alabama team in their storied history.

CONS.

1. The only con for Newton is the off-the-field issues which may hurt him with some voters who take the integrity of the player into account when voting despite the fact that the NCAA has ruled him eligible and said he did nothing wrong. I have heard that up to 10% of the voters may not vote for him for this reason.
   

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PROJECTED #2

Andrew Luck, Stanford

PROS.

1. Luck is avg 254 pass ypg with a 70% comp rate and a 28-7 ratio. He also put up some surprising rush stats with 438 rush yds and a very impressive 8.6 ypc (better ypc than James) and has a couple of 50+ yd runs this season!
2. Coming into the year Luck was playing without LY’s Heisman runner-up RB Gerhart and was the glue that held the entire offense together early as the young skill position players developed.
3. If a voter was looking at a proto-typical QB at the next level that has all the intangibles of a future NFL star, there may be no prospect better in all of college football than Luck and he led his team to an 11-1 record which is the best in school history.

CONS.

1. Came up short in the Oregon game especially in the 2H with a couple of interceptions which will hurt him with voters who favor Oregon RB James who ran for 257 yds and 3 TD’s in that contest with the Ducks winning by 3 TD’s. Also plays in the West with 3 of the other finalists, which will split the vote.

PROJECTED #3

LaMichael James, Oregon

PROS.

1. Led the nation in rushing with 1,682 yds (6.0) and 21 TD’s and last year Stanford RB Gerhart in the same situation finished 2nd in the race.
2. Had two of his best performances this season in national spotlight games against Stanford and USC. Against the Cardinal he ran for 257 yds and 3 TD’s and ran for 238 rush yds and 3 TD’s against USC.
3. The three QB’s may split some of the votes and James is playing on a undefeated team that will play for the national title.

CONS.

1. James was suspended for one game this season for an off-the field incident. He also plays in a offense that is beneficial to the RB’s and the back-ups had better ypc’s and did not seem to miss a beat when James was not in the lineup.
   

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PROJECTED #4

Kellen Moore, Boise St

PROS.

1. Is a great leader on and off the field and has had three spectacular seasons in a row leading the Broncos to a 37-2 record.
2. May garner some sympathy votes from voters who are against the off-the-field incidents of Newton and will place Moore higher on the ballot because of his “underdog” status.
3. Completed 71% of his passes avg 292 pass ypg with a 33-5 ratio, which was good enough for #2 in pass efficiency in the NCAA.

CONS.

Plays for a non-AQ team that lost a national spotlight game. Also many will question the type of competition he faced on a week-to-week basis and he will probably have another opportunity to win the Heisman next year as a Senior.

News and Notes

Tough loss for Arizona vs Arizona St. While both D’s controlled matters in the 1H and ASU had a 136-83 yd edge, there were 5 key plays that hurt UA. ASU led 6-0 helped by the fact UA dropping four int’s. Any one of those would have set them up and taken away QB Osweiler’s confidence as he struggled early on. UA also had a zero yd punt and on ASU’s final drive of the 1H they converted on 3&10, 3&8 and even 3&19. UA appeared to take control with two 3Q TD’s and led 14-6 but fumbled at the 49 up 14-9. ASU got a couple of fortunate pen’s. On 2&5 they took a 6 yd sk back to the 11 but a hands to the face on a DL was called for a FD at the 2. Then on 3&3, ASU’s rec pushed the UA DB to the ground and caught the ball for the TD. A flag was thrown for the obvious pass interference but it was ruled def pass interference so it was a TD. The final 2 key plays that went against UA both involved xp’s. They got a TD with :27 left in the game to pull out the win but the xp was blk’d sending it to OT. In the 2nd OT each team got a TD but ASU blk’d the xp again.

Fresno St got their 2nd win over a BCS school this year after beating Cincinnati in the season opener. FSU dominated early with a 72/8pl TD drive then got a 78 yd TD pass and after a 6pl drive, a 45 yd FG to lead 16-0 after 1Q. IL got an 18 yd FG then a 35 yd TD run and it was 19-10 at the half and FSU had a 233-165 yd edge. There were 3 TD drives on the first 5 poss of the 2H, two by Illinois but after their 2nd TD which came with 14:55 left in the game they missed the 2 pt conversion and trailed 25-23. UI punted with 9:31 left and FSU on 3&13 fired incomplete from their own 7 but a pers foul late hit gave them a FD. They then converted on 3&10 and opted to go for it on 4&1 and got a FD to their own 47. After 1 more FD, they finally punted with just :18 left after a 50/15pl drive. IL brought McGee in at QB (bigger arm). After an incompletion he was sk’d at his own 4 on the final play.

Northern Illinois once again lost a MAC Title game with a late 4th down conversion. In 2005 when after 4 FD’s, Akron’s Hixon hauled in a 36 yd TD pass with :10 left and on 1st &15 NI’s Hail Mary pass fell incomplete. This year Miami in the 1H had an xp and FG blk’d and trailed 14-13. They drove for a TD to open the 3Q to lead 20-14 but then faked a FG on 4&gl from the 5 and only gained 3 yds. It appeared those 3 points would come back and haunt them and perhaps the reason they did not try to the FG were the 2 blocks. NI led 21-20 and punted with 2:48 left and MU took over at its own 48. They faced a 4&20 and although a deep pass was underthrown and deflected by a Huskies defender and Givens hauled it in for a 31 yd play to the NI31. On 2&12 they got a 33 yd TD pass for a 26-21 lead. NI got down to the MU32 but on 3&8, Harnish scrambled and was tkl’d and the clock ran out.

West Virginia dominated Rutgers much more than the final score would indicate. The Mountaineers had 25-11 FD and 523-203 yd edges. In the 1H WV fumbled at the RU8 then RU13 costing them 2 scores. They also had a 37 yd FG blk’d and only led 14-7 at the half. QB Smith got a 10 yd run for an apparent TD but as he was going in, he fumbled. For their 3rd fumble inside the 15. WV got a TD with 4:32 left to lead 35-7 but RU on 4&2 got a 6 yd pass to the WV44 and then a 44 yd garbage TD pass to Harrison with 2:02 left to “only” lose by 21.

UCF held the ball for 13:00 in the 1Q and UCF and SMU combined for just 10 points in the 1H, the lowest total in the 6 year history of the CUSA Title game. UCF had their opportunities to take charge. At the end of the half, they had a 1st & gl at the 3 but settled for a 29 yd FG and led 10-0. UCF opened the 3Q with an 85/8pl drive for a 36 yd TD run by Latavius Murray who had 2 TD’s and was the game’s MVP. SMU got a 22 yd TD pass with 9:15 left to get back within 10. UCF got an IR to the SMU28 but after a sk on 4&17 opted for a 52 yd FG and missed it with 3:41 left. SMU converted on 4&5, 3&12 and 4&7 but on 4&10 from the UCF25 was sk’d for an 8 yd loss.

Pittsburgh’s Dion Lewis rushed for 261 yards and 4 TD’s on a snow covered field at Cincinnati. You could not see the yard lines and Pitt was wearing white uniforms which may have helped them as they blended into the surface. Finally Lewis was given the feature back role and was handed the ball 42 times and was very effective. Pitt had a 430-265 yd edge and while they won by 18, they also blew some opportunities including having a pass go through WR Shanahan’s hands and was int’d at the UC1, they hit the upright on a 38 yd FG and fmbl’d at the UC4 with 5:48 left.

Boise St was coming off a rare loss but rolled over Utah St 50-14 in a game they led 43-7. Unfortunately, Kyle Brotzman only had 1 FG attempt in and he missed it. Utah St rushed for 250 yds but only threw for 41 on the blue turf. Utah St’s Kerwynn Williams set a new FBS single season record for KR yards with 1,421 on the year breaking the previous mark of 1,410 set earlier this season by Taveon Rogers of New Mexico St.

Howard Schnellenberger coached his 300th career college game but it didn’t go the way he would have liked it to as Troy dominated FAU. Leading 30-0 at the half with a 307-164 yard edge, Troy rolled to a 44-7 win. FAU lost their last 3 games of the season and finished 4-8 on the year.

Colin Kaepernick tied an NCAA record for TD’s rushing by a QB  as he got his 59th on what was a designed pass play. He ties Nebraska’s Eric Crouch for that mark. Kaepernick hit 13-17-159 passing while rushing for 155 yards on 20 carries. He has topped 100 yards rushing 16x in his career and became just the 3rd QB in NCAA history to top 4,000 yards rushing (4,090) trailing only Pat White (4,480) and Brad Smith (4,289). Louisiana Tech led 14-7. LT’s Phillip Livas nearly set an NCAA record for KR TD’s but Nevada K Ricky Drake tackled him in the 4Q when he was on his way to what would have been his 9th.

Oregon struggled for most of their game vs Oregon St, trailing 7-0 early. OSU faked a FG and was int’d and the Ducks went 74/7pl for a TD. UO did miss a 25 yd FG on the final play of the half after a 73/13pl drive. UO had a 242-126 yd edge. The Ducks were SOD at the OSU32 early 3Q but went 79/7pl for a TD to lead 23-7. OSU went 65/11pl but settled for a 26 yd FG after a 1st & gl at the 2. On OSU’s next drive they had a 1&gl again but settled for a 22 yd FG and trailed by 10, 23-13. UO got a 23 yd TD run with 12:16 left to go up by 17. OSU punted with 10:40 left, was int’d at the UO39 and then the Ducks clinched it with a 10 yd TD run by James with 4:27 left, 37-13. OSU got a garbage 12 yd TD pass with 1:18 left for the 17 pt final. UO did have a 491-319 yd edge.

Idaho blocked a 26 yard FG by SJS on the last play of regulation to force OT and in OT SJS settled for a 39 yd FG while Idaho, on 3&8, got a 23 yd TD pass. SJS outgained the Vandals 496-421. SJS also missed an xp in the 3Q which would have given them the victory in regulation as well. Not only did they have problems with FG’s, but in the 2H SJS went on a 72/9pl drive and had a 2nd & gl at the 1. La Secla was int’d in the EZ for a TB. At the end of the half, SJS had a FD at the ID13 with :43 left but La Secla was int’d at the 5 costing them even more points…Cam Newton wrapped up the Heisman and Auburn got the largest victory ever in an SEC Title game in their rout of South Carolina. Auburn scored TD’s on their first 3 poss to jump out to a 21-7 lead but at 21-14 on the last play of the half, Newton threw a Hail Mary pass to the EZ which bounced off 1 receiver and was hauled in by Adams for a 51 yd TD to make it 28-14. Auburn had a 348-196 yd edge at the half. Auburn finished with a 589-349 yd edge with SC gaining 102 of its 349 yards on the final 2 drives trailing 49-14. Newton rushed for 73 yards and hit 17-28-335.

The Apple Cup was interesting as Washington needed a win to become bowl eligible. Chris Polk had the 2nd best rushing total in UW history with 284 yards on 29 carries. Only Hugh McElhenny’s 296 in 1950 (also vs WSU) is better. UW came into the year the 3rd longest drought of AQ schools of not getting to a bowl with only Baylor and Duke being longer. UW’s last trip came in 2002. Big plays were the keys for the Huskies. On a fake punt they got a 30 yd pass down to the 7 in the 2Q and a TD on the next play made it 14-0. UW led 28-14 when WSU drove 70/10pl and 73/6pl for TD’s to make it 28-28 with 4:26 left. With 1:21 left the FG unit was brought on for a 49 yd’r but changed their mind. They went for it and got a FD run to the 16. A pers foul forced a 2nd & 21 and UW needed just a FG for the win but opted to go for the EZ and got a 27 yd TD pass with :44 left on 2 & 21 to get the cover.

Matt Barkley was questionable coming in but hit 15-26-198 yards. USC got a 68 yd FR TD to lead 14-7 in the 2Q and beat their crosstown rival for the 11th time in the last 12 meetings. USC did have a 474-358 yard edge and a 22-17 FD edge. Despite finishing 8-5, USC will not be in a bowl for the first time S/’07 due to NCAA sanctions and it would have been a Holiday Bowl berth this year. UCLA trailed 28-7 before getting a TD with just :23 left in the game as the Bruins lost their 6th game in the last 7. It was only the 4th time in the last 35 years neither is headed to post season so it was like a bowl for both. The crowd of 71,105 was well below capacity.

Oklahoma won its 7th Big 12 Title, more than 2x as many as any other school and it was the 7th straight for the South Div. OU had 454-293 yd and 19-13 FD edges. The Huskers had 3 big plays to take a 17-0 lead. They got a 66 yd TD run by Roy Helu as they had limited success on offense in the 1H. They got a 53 yd FG by Alex Henery and then got a 33 yd IR to the OU12. At the end of the play, Sooner WR Broyles took the ball out of Osborne’s hands and it was orig ruled OU rec’d a fmbl but replays showed Osborne’s knee could have been down and they gave the ball to NU. Two plays later they got a TB pass out of the Wildcat from TB Burkhead to Reed, 17-0. OU got the 2nd largest comeback in Big 12 Title history (CU came back from 19 down to beat UT in ‘01). NU has now lost the last 2 B12 Title games by a total of 4 points. Taylor Martinez was sk’d 7 times. OU was SOD at the NU34 on 4&5, SOD at the NU25 on 4&1, settled for a 26 yd FG after a 12 play drive, missed a chipshot 24 yd FG, settled for a 20 yd FG after a 59/8pl drive on a 1st & gl at the 3 and settled for a 27 yd FG after a 55/11pl drive.

The AP Poll was released over the weekend and today I can officially come up with Overrated and Underrated teams for the upcoming year.

First, here is the Preseason AP Top 25.

Overrated Teams

#5 Texas-I think the Top 10 is reasonably legitimate and the Longhorns are once again one of the most talented teams in the country and they have my #1 defense. They do face my #5 team Nebraska in Lincoln and my #1 team Oklahoma in Dallas, but will be a solid favorite in all of the rest of their games. They do lose a 4-year starting QB in Colt McCoy, their top WR in Jordan Shipley and have not really had a feature RB since Jamaal Charles (’07), so there are some questions on offense. While I think it will be another solid season for the Longhorns I think a Top 5 finish as projected by the AP is a bit of a reach this year.

#12 Wisconsin-The Badgers are coming off a 10-win season and are a much more veteran team this year. Many of my sets of power ratings have them slightly ahead of Iowa but they have to play the Hawkeyes on the road and get #2 Ohio St at home. They do avoid Penn St but the Michigan and Michigan St road trips will be much tougher than most suspect. While 5 of my 9 sets of ratings call for a double digit win season, I think another Top 15 ranking will be tough to duplicate.

#15 Pittsburgh-When I list my rankings in the magazine, they are my end of season rankings and I have Pittsburgh #27. I do have the Panthers winning the Big East title by beating West Virginia at home which would give them the tie-breaker. However, they have just 11 returning starters and have to face Utah and Notre Dame on the road and Miami, Fl at home in non-conference play. By winning the conference, I have them playing in the Fiesta Bowl against Nebraska, but I think the Panthers could have four losses at the end of the year.

#16 Georgia Tech-Paul Johnson is a great coach and last year I undervalued the Yellow Jackets and paid the price as they not only won the Coastal, but won the ACC Title outright. This year they have to play Clemson, Virginia Tech, North Carolina and Georgia all on the road and Miami at home in which the Yellow Jackets could be a underdog in each game. Despite the tough schedule, they have 14 returning starters and could make me pay again for picking them 4th in the Coastal this year.

#21 LSU-The talent is there for LSU to contend for the SEC West Title and even knock off Alabama at home. They do have to play SIX teams in my Top 25 (#10 schedule) and only have 10 returning starters. Keep in my mind LY they went 9-4 but were outgained on the year 328-305. This is a talented squad with my #19 rated defense and a lot of VHT’s on offense but with the schedule they could find it tough matching last year’s 9 regular season wins and could finish out of the Top 25 for the second time in 3 years.

Underrated Teams

#7 Oklahoma-The last time the Sooners came off a 5 loss season was 2000 which is the last time they won the National Title!  While they lost 7 players to the draft including four 1st-rounders, two of the top draftees (Bradford and Gresham) did not really play. Last year despite their 5-3 Big 12 record, the Sooners’ +133 ypg was the league’s best. They also had 42 starts lost to injury (tied #3 FBS) and had 3 net close losses. This year they are in much better shape on the offensive line, QB Landry Jones has a year under his belt and all 9 sets of my power ratings call for an unbeaten season. With all these factors added up, the Sooners are my pick to win the National Title in 2010!

#22 Auburn-Many Auburn fans were not happy when HC Gene Chizik was hired (just 5-19 at Iowa St) but I thought he did a solid job here last year guiding the Tigers to a 8-5 record including a New Year’s Day Bowl win. This year Auburn has 15 returning starters and are in the second year of Chizik’s system. The schedule also sets up nicely for them as they get 4 key SEC games at home and my main set of power ratings calls for an 11-1 season with an 11-0 vs 11-0 showdown vs Alabama in the Iron Bowl. The Tigers will easily top LY’s 8 win total and I have them finishing #15.

Notre Dame-HC Brian Kelly gets the most out of the talent on hand and he is the first coach in the history of my magazine to have his team finish higher than I projected them in SIX straight years (including 3 conference titles). He inherits a lot of talent here with 14 returning starters including All-American candidates WR Floyd and TE Rudolph. He does have a new QB in Crist but remember Kelly won a BE title with 5 different QBs in 2008. I feel the Irish have clearly underachieved the last 3 seasons and I think they could be in store for 9 wins or more this year.

South Carolina-This could finally be the year Steve Spurrier envisioned when he came to Columbia. The Gamecocks have 16 returning starters and are one of the top teams in the SEC. They have my #3 rated defense and lose just 11 letterman. This year they do have to play Florida on the road and draw Alabama from the West but it would not surprise me if Spurrier had the team in the SEC Title game this year despite facing the 2nd toughest schedule in the country.

Houston-They Cougars have one of the best offenses in the country with QB Case Keenum, three 1,000 yd receivers and RB Beall who has nearly 2,000 yds in his 1st two seasons. Houston also should have an improved defense this year with 6 starters back including three of the top 4 returning tacklers. Not only are the Cougars my pick for the CUSA title, but 2 of my 9 sets of power ratings call for an undefeated season with winnable road games at UCLA and Texas Tech.

Arizona-My magazine is the only one in the country to have the Wildcats in the Top 25 and they are a legitimate Pac-10 title contender. Arizona could have easily won the conference title last year but had a pair of 3 pt losses and came up just short. While they only have 4 starters back on defense, they only lose 17 letterman and will have a potent offense. They get 5 Pac-10 home games and a road trip to Washington St. I will call for them to have their most wins since 1998 and have a shot at their 1st ever Rose bowl which would make a great story.

Only 9 Days Until The First College Football Game!!!

The college football season is fast approaching and in today’s blog I will give you a sneak peak at some of the early marquee college football non-conference games and how I think they will shake out as of right now. Also included is your current voting tallies for each of these games.

Remember if you visit the homepage right now, you can get a head start on voting in the Non-Conference Poll with all the non-conference games. To see where you rank against other voters, as soon as your vote is entered in, you will see the % stacked with or against you. In the next day or two the four remaining non-BCS conferences will be added on the front page. The Non-Conference Poll will run until Sunday, Aug 29th. On Monday the 30th, look for the Weekly Polls to start. There are games every day Thursday September 2nd thru Monday September 6th as the first week of the season looks to kick off with a bang! Weekly prizes will be awarded throughout the season.

Marquee Early Non-Conference Match-ups
With Your Current Voting % on Top

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Pitt at Utah Sept 2nd. Utah won in the 2004 Fiesta Bowl 35-7 (only previous meeting). Pitt is #107 in my Experience Chart (page 311 of TY’s mag) while Utah is #57. Utah’s altitude edge is expanded because they have been home all month. Pitt has a young QB and O-Line making their first road starts at night in front of a loud and enthusiastic crowd. Utah is 17-1 at home the last 3 yrs and will be fired up for this one. Utah 27-24.

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Connecticut at Michigan Sept 4th. Michigan is expanding the stadium and in doing so it is more enclosed and will be louder, holding in more sound. Rich Rod was 4-0 vs Connecticut in Big East play and is in the 3rd year at Michigan, which is usually a break thru season. Michigan was 5-2 at one point last year and this is a MUST win for UM. Michigan 27-24.

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Oregon St vs TCU Sept 4th. (Arlington) Texas is not a neutral site for these teams however three things have been very consistent under Mike Riley: 1. They usually finish higher in the Pac 10 than what I forecast 2. Experienced QB’s fare much better than 1st year QB’s in his system and 3. Oregon St struggles on the road the first month of the season. TCU is legit and will be sky high for a BCS conference foe led by a 1st year QB. TCU 27-13.

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LSU vs North Carolina (Atlanta) Sept 4. Great battle between the SEC vs ACC. LSU was actually outgained last year 305-328 despite their 9 wins. North Carolina meanwhile was 8-5 but had a 308-270 yd edge on the year. NC has 19 returning starters and their defense is LOADED with NFL prospects (could have 5 picks in 1st or 2nd round). LSU only has 10 returning starters so they are less experienced. I will call for the upset. NC 17-13.

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Boise St vs Virginia Tech Sept 6th. This is a true national title elimination game and both deserve to be in the Top 10. While this is a “neutral” site it is right in VT’s back yard and Boise must fly across the country. VT has a tremendous backfield and being the lower ranked team will feel like the underdog. Last year they whipped Miami, Fla in a similar situation. Virginia Tech 30-27.

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Michigan at Notre Dame Sept 11th. There have been 6 straight outright upsets when these two meet in South Bend! UM is just 2-8 in road openers. Last year Michigan got a TD with :11 left to pull the upset at home. It is my #3 Most Improved team vs my #5 MIP team. UM rates a slight edge on offense while ND has the defense and home edges. Notre Dame 31-27.

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Florida St at Oklahoma Sept 11. Both teams have explosive offenses but OU has a huge edge on defense as they allowed just 273 ypg in ’09 and lose 11 letterman with 5 starters back and FSU allowed 435 ypg and lose 12 letterman (6 starters back). FSU was out gained by an avg of 421-435 last year while OU even in an 8-5 year had a 424-273 yard edge. OU is 61-2 at home this past decade and FSU is on a 4-9 run vs ranked tms. OKLAHOMA 37-27.

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Miami Fla at Ohio St Sept 11. Miami only had one unit not in my top units in the front of the magazine and that was Offensive line but they just added PS#1 Henderson from USC. Two exciting QB’s and top 6 defenses. My picks to win the ACC and the Big Ten. Shannon is 4-7 vs ranked teams while Tressell is 31-14 and Ohio St is at home for this. OHIO STATE 30-20.

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Oregon at Tennessee Sept 11th. Tennessee has the large edge of the heat and humidity of the South vs a team from the Northwest. Oregon has the edge of having a much deeper and experienced team with 17 returning starters from last year’s Rose bowl squad. Tennessee has their 3rd HC in 3 years and suffered a lot of attrition and has just 9 returning starters. UT takes it to the wire but…OREGON 27-20.

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Penn State at Alabama Sept 11. Penn St has 6 units that rank in my top units of the front of the magazine and Bama does have just 2 returning starters on D. The key here is Penn St has a QB making his first road start vs a Top 10 D in front of a loud home crowd. Alabama 30-20.

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Arizona St at Wisconsin Sept 18. The Badgers are loaded this year with 16 returning starters from a 10-3 #14 squad that dominated Miami in the bowl game. Arizona St was just 4-8 last year and has just 9 returning starters BUT their defense was #13 in the country last year allowing just 298 ypg! This wont be the mismatch most expect but UW at home wins 28-18.

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Clemson at Auburn Sept 18 – Less than 250 miles apart. Clemson faced two weak teams and has a bye on deck so this is their “A” game for September while Auburn is in an SEC sandwich. Auburn is #26 in my experience chart and Clemson is #56. Auburn is #22 in my Power Poll (and at home) and Clemson #36 and is replacing Spiller and Ford, their two game breakers. AUBURN 30-27.

Only 15 Days Until the First College Football Game!!

A lot of people ask me if I have a favorite team. I was born and raised and still live in Cleveland, Ohio. I was a fan of many teams as a child but now that I put out a National magazine, I cannot afford to be a fan of any team. I have to pick the teams where I think they will finish each year. I was doing a radio show last week and I was asked if I have a favorite team or teams. My response was a strong YES! The interviewer was surprised by that answer and also eager to hear which team I would pick. My answer was my favorite team each year is the team I pick #1 in the magazine and my favorite teams are the ones I have picked higher than all the other major magazines out there. I then said that each year I establish a list of my favorite teams for that year. I then give this list to my wife. I wear a shirt and tie to work every day during the week and my tie is always a college team. I wear polo shirts during the weekend and when not at work and they are always different college teams. The list I give my wife is the ones to buy that I will be wearing for the upcoming year as these are the teams I will be the biggest fan of for the upcoming season. I was then asked “What teams will your wife be buying ties and shirts of this year? That was a great question and I thought I would answer it in a blog.

I went to preseason.stassen.com to find out where all the magazines have everyone ranked for the upcoming year. Here is the list of teams that I will be rooting for the most this year.

First I want to mention that my favorite shirt is naturally the PhilSteele.com shirt that will soon be available for you to purchase on the PhilSteele.com store but you can get a sneak peek at what they look like by clicking here.

Oklahoma-As I said every year the team that is my pick to win the national title is my favorite team of the year and this year that team is the Oklahoma Sooners who I feel are way undervalued. There are numerous reasons that have them pointing for a banner season. Last year, the Sooners lost 42 starts to injury, which was THIRD highest in the country. Also they suffered four close losses, which means they were just a play or two away in each game from having a much better record. Statistically they were the best team in the entire Big 12 as they outgained their opponents by 133 ypg! They also had an inexperienced offensive line and were starting a frosh QB due to injury. Naturally this year they are in much better shape at both those positions. The Sooners this year remind me very much of my 2008 pick to win it all, which was the Florida Gators. Coming into the season Florida was not even favored to win the SEC East as Georgia finished the 2007 season #2 and were returning both QB Stafford and RB Moreno. Meanwhile the Gators were coming off a four-loss season. However, when the dust cleared on the season, Tebow and company delivered for me as they won the national title. I have picked the Big 12 South winner the last 7 years and will be going for 8 this year. Last year during the Red River Shootout, I was decked out in Texas gear including my Longhorn hat as I picked Texas to play for the national title. However this year I hope Bob Stoops can regain his “Big Game Bob” moniker as I will be decked out in Sooners garb all season.

North Texas-The Mean Green made my most improved list so you knew I was rooting for them right from the start. Over the past 12 years of all the teams that had losing records the previous year, only 20% improve to bowl eligibility the next year. The last two years my Most Improved list has had 69% of the teams go from a losing record to bowl eligibility! Most magazines look at the past performances for North Texas (2-20 last 5 years in the Sun Belt) and pick them 8th in the SBC or 2nd last. Every year is a new year and I think this is the season it all falls into place for NT and I have them THIRD in the Sun Belt! Get me those North Texas polo shirts and ties as I will be rooting for North Texas every week this season!

California - The Bears have been disappointing fans for years. Last year Cal opened the year #12 in the polls and finished unranked and a disappointing 8-5 including a bowl loss to Utah and a blowout 42-10 loss to Washington in their last 2 games. In 2007 they were #12 and finished unranked and just 7-6 needing a bowl comeback win to avoid a losing season. This year writers have thrown Cal in the trash can and they are primarily picked 7th or 8th in the very competitive Pac 10. I have them tied for 3rd! Cal does have the benefit of only 4 Pac 10 road games and one of those is against Wash St meaning most of their winnable games are at home. Both their offensive and defensive lines rank in my top units and I will be rooting for the Golden Bears almost every week this season!

Western Michigan – Bill Cubit is one of the most underrated coaches in the country and I think this year he ends up MAC coach of the year and some smart BCS school snatches him up. Most people when they look at a team look at last years record (5-7) and if the QB and top RB are returning. WM loses both QB Hiller and RB West (1164 yards) and if that is how you rate a team you will not be very high on WM this year. I look at a team that was wiped out on defense last year due to graduation and now has a much more experienced group on that side of the ball. I like the replacements at QB and RB and they are talented at WR and the offensive line. Most have Western finishing FOURTH in the MAC West while I have them playing in the MAC title game. I was an Ohio Bobcat fan last year and they did not disappoint, no doubt I am a huge Broncos fan this year!

USF – USF has been the poster child for an underachieving team the last few years. They have reached the top 10 in both 2007 and 2008 but finished each year unranked. Last year they were an average 8-5 team and they are just 5-9 in Big East play the last two years. The other magazines must be bitter about those finishes as they have pegged them 6th this year despite the fact they return 15 starters including QB BJ Daniels. Remember last year they opened 5-0 despite losing their starting QB Grothe to injury in week 3. The biggest news this year is that Skip Holtz takes over as head coach. The last two years he has had only the 3rd or 4th most talented team in CUSA but has a pair of CUSA championship rings! He gets the most out of the talent on hand and inherits a very talented team. I have them pegged to finish in a tie for 3rd and consider them a Big East title contender this year. I already have a South Florida tie, so I guess I will just pick up a polo shirt this year.

UAB – When Neil Calloway took over he had a scholarship depleted team and were an easy pick for me as I picked them last in the CUSA East and they were 1-7 and landed right there. Calloway has done a solid job the last two years getting the team to go 7-9 in conference play and this year is finally up to scholarship limits and has 16 returning starters to boot. Joe Webb their outstanding QB is gone but that is the only position that is weaker this year. Most magazines have them 5th or 6th but I have them in a tie for 3rd in the CUSA East. This will be the first time in a long time I will be
rooting for the Blazers but I have to think their logos on the Polo shirt would be pretty cool with the Dragon breathing fire, so that should be a good shirt to add to the collection.

Arizona – Last year Arizona was on this list but after checking my closet, I did not get Wildcat polo. Last year Arizona was picked 5th by Lindy’s, 6th by USA Today and EIGHTH by Athlon and The Sporting News and I had them tied for 3rd. Arizona finished tied for 2nd so I was very pleased. Rarely do I get the chance to root for the same team two straight years. This year I picked them tied for third in the Pac 10 again but the other publications have them 5th, 6th or even 7th (Blue Ribbon). Only one source in the country has Arizona RANKED this year and that is my magazine and I consider them a Pac-10 title contender. It is time to get that Wildcat shirt this year!

Miami, Fl- The Hurricanes are my pick to not only win the ACC Coastal this year but they are my favorite to win the overall ACC Title! I have the Canes ranked #9 in the country while other magazines such as Lindy’s, Blue Ribbon and USA Today all picked them to finish as low as 4th in their division!

Penn St-I have the Nittany Lions picked to finish tied for 2nd this year while everyone else has them 4th. I already have a Penn St tie but this year I think it’s time to finally get that polo shirt.

Maryland-Last year I was rooting against Maryland on a weekly basis. Despite coming off an 8 win season that included a bowl win, I picked the Terps to finish in last place which is precisely where they ended up. This year they are in much better shape and make my most improved list. While the Terps are the sheik pick to finish 6th again, I have them rated higher and will be a big fan of them this year in stark contrast to last season.

Michigan-Like I said earlier, I have no allegiances to any team other than where my magazine predicts them. While I have been born and raised in the state of Ohio my entire life and as a child rooted for Ohio St, this year the Wolverines make my most improved list and I have them playing in the Gator Bowl against LSU. While I have the Wolverines picked to finish tied for 5th, other magazines like Athlon and Sporting News have them picked 8th. I will have no trouble rooting for Michigan in most games this year.

Colorado-My first impression of the Buffaloes this year was to pick them to finish 6th in the Big 12 North as they were one of the few teams to make my most improved list but did not go to a bowl as they finished a pathetic 3-9. However, that was my mindset when I started but after compiling all of my research in May, I think they have the most improved OL in the country and will make a bowl this year.  I have them picked to finish 4th which is far higher than most of the other magazines. I already have a Colorado polo shirt, now it’s time to get a tie!

Auburn-After I finish writing my magazine in May, I go thru every game of the upcoming season and figure out who I think will be the favorite/dog in each game. After finishing Auburn’s schedule I did not have the Tigers as an underdog in any of their first 11 games (2 pick-ems)!  While Auburn is picked to finish 3, 4 or 5 by most magazines this year, I have them picked 2nd in the SEC West thanks to a great SEC schedule. Surprisingly I have no Auburn polo shirts and I definitely think it’s time to pick one up this year!

Ball St-The Cardinals are another team that I rooted against last year, but this year will be rooting heavily for.  In 2008, the Cards finished the regular season at 12-0 but the following year, I picked them 5th in the MAC West which is where they ended up. Last year they were very inexperienced and had a new coach. This year they have 19 returning starters and while Stan Parrish’s 4-41-1 overall record as head coach gets a lot of publicity, I think a lot of it is due to mitigating circumstances. I do feel Parrish is a quality coach and will get the most out of his team this year. While most magazines have them picked to finish 5th again, I have them tied for 3rd!

Kent St-Last year the Golden Flashes came close to being a bowl eligible squad as they suffered 3 close losses. This year they get back RB Eugene Jarvis who I am a big fan of and I will call for them to finally break thru as I have them ranked #11 on my most improved list.

Baylor-The Bears have not been to a bowl game since 1994 and this year they make my most improved list (losing season to bowl eligibility). Naturally, I will be rooting for them very hard this year!

Fresno St-Last year the Bulldogs could have beaten both Wisconsin and Cincinnati on the road. While I don’t think they will win at Boise this year, they could upset Nevada at home. I have them tied for 2nd in the WAC which is higher than all the other preseason magazines as the Sporting News and Gold Sheet both have them tied for 5th.

San Diego St-The Aztecs make my most improved list (#6) and have one of the best coaching staffs in the country. This year I think QB Lindley will be more comfortable behind center as the Aztecs make their first bowl game since 1998!

West Virginia-This year I have the Mountaineers tied for first in the Big East which is higher than most of the other preseason magazines. I already have my West Virginia shirt that I wear all the time and this year I will be wearing it some more!

Only 21 Days Until the First College Football Game!

Many of you have asked me for an updated Bowl Projections listing since USC was eliminated from bowl contention recently. In the magazine which went to press before the NCAA’s ruling I projected the Trojans to go to the Rose Bowl. Naturally most of my Pac-10 selections for bowls have changed with the ineligibility of USC. Oregon now gets my pick to go to the Rose Bowl and a lot of the other Pac-10 teams get bumped up. Here are my current projections for all 35 of this year’s bowl games which includes the BCS Championship game.

2010-2011 Bowl Schedule and Projections