I have gotten many requests to do a blog to explain how I compute each teams home field edge in the magazine. I have 27 different factors in my computer’s grade of a team. I then compare the computer’s analysis to my own and make the final decision.

While I mention that there are 27 factors in my home field computer ratings, there are actually nine individual factors that I use each year and I then combine the grades for the last three years giving half of the grade to last year, 30% to the numbers from two years ago and 20% to the computer rankings from three years ago.

Today I will go over the nine different areas that I use to rate home field edge. The first category is the stadium capacity. The largest stadium in the country last year was Penn St which held 107,282 and my computer gave them the maximum score of 6 for that category. My home field edges go from 0 to 6 in the magazine so they have the same scale in the computer. The smallest capacity is Idaho’s Kibbie Dome which seated just 16,000 and they received a 0 in that category. The rest of the capacities are done with a simple equation of Capacity-16,000 divided by 15,250. The reason I divide by 15,250 is that Penn St at 107,282-16,000 = 91,282 and 91,282 divided by 6 (0-6 scale) = 15,214 and I rounded up to get the 15,250. You can figure out what your favorite team is graded in this category by using this simple equation.

The second category is actual attendance reported by the school in 2010. Once again Michigan was at the top with 111,825 and this time the team at the bottom was Ball St which averaged just 8,947 fans per game last year. I used the same method as above to turn this data into a 0 to 6 rating where Michigan received a 6, Ball St a 0 and as an example Florida St with an attendance of 71,270 earned a 4.15 grade.

The third category is % of capacity. Let’s face it, a crowd of 45,000 in a 45,000 seat stadium is louder than a crowd of 45,000 in a half-full 90,000 seat stadium. The winner in this category last year was Alabama at 111% of capacity as they had an avg attendance of 101,821 with a listed capacity of 92,138. Oregon had a 110% capacity with an avg attendance of 59,398 with a stadium capacity of 54,000. There were 10 schools that had a larger average attendance than their listed capacity last year. At the bottom of this category was UAB which brought in an average of 18,360 fans to their 72,000 seat stadium which is just 26%. Five teams had an average attendance of less than 40% capacity and 9 had an average attendance of less than 50% of capacity.

The next category is last years straight up win/loss record for each team at home. There were 15 teams last year that finished with an undefeated record at home while there were 2 teams last year that were actually winless at home. Those 2 teams were Eastern Michigan and North Texas.

The fifth category is the last 3 years straight up records at home. Oklahoma, Boise St and TCU are all undefeated at home in that span while Alabama, Troy and Utah all have just one loss. At the bottom of the scale is Western Kentucky and North Texas who have won just 1 home games in the last 3 years. Once again this is on a 0-6 point basis.

The next category is the last 5 years records at home. Boise St and Oklahoma come in #1 here at a perfect 32-0 and 31-0 game at home respectively. TCU is next up with just 2 losses. North Texas and Eastern Michigan are at the bottom over 5 years with NT at 5-22 and EMU 5-19.

Sometimes teams compile great home records because they play a bunch of cupcakes. Sometimes teams compile a weak record because they play a large amount of ranked teams. The easiest way to determine if a team played above or below expectations is to look at their records against the Las Vegas spread. If a team was favored to win by 30 that means the opponent was weak and a 3 point win is unimpressive vs that caliber of opponent. I weigh each of the different factors and the actual home win record is given twice the weight of the ATS record. I used the records for last year, the last 3 years and the last 5 years. The best record over the last 5 years is CMU at 16-6 with Oklahoma #2 at 21-8 and TCU #3 at 20-8. At the bottom are Army at 6-18, and Fresno 7-20.

I then factor in the 9 categories from the 2009 and 2008 seasons which gives me 27 categories for the computer to factor in and I have them appropriately weighted. I then look at the computer’s grade which had Oklahoma #1 with a 5.65 home edge. Ohio St #2 at 5.59 and Oregon #3 at 5.23. At the bottom the computer has Eastern Michigan #120 at 1.19, North Texas #119 at 1.36 and WKU #118 at 1.54.

The final category is my own personal grade. I have 12 TV’s in front of me and watch 12 games all day long on Saturday and watch every nighttime game on ESPN. I can hear the crowd noise at each stadium and I weigh in how many times I thought it was a factor in a game. I look at how good the team has been the last 5 years and what percentage of games they win at home and on the road in my personal evaluation.

After that evaluation, I gave three teams a 6-point home edge in this year’s magazine in Oklahoma, Boise St and Oregon. Virginia Tech and Ohio St hav a 5.75 grade while Florida, Penn St, TCU, Wisconsin and Alabama all earned 5.25 grades from me. At the bottom of the scale I gave a 1.5 point home edge to Eastern Michigan with WKU, New Mexico St and Tulane all earning 2s.

Here are all my 2011 Homefield edges for all 120 Teams.

Phil Steele’s 2011 Homefield Edges
(higher number the better)

Only 35 Days Until the First College Football Game!!!

2010 was a memorable year for many of the teams and players in the Mid-American Conference. The ’10 season saw the conference send four of its teams to bowl games and both MAC Championship game participants Miami, Oh and Northern Illinois each won their bowl games. Both the RedHawks and Huskies also finished in the final AP Top 30 and Miami, Ohio had one of the greatest single season turnarounds in college football history going from a 1-11 record in 2009 to a 10-4 season last year which included a MAC Championship.

2010 was also a banner year for several MAC players including Toledo WR/KR Eric Page who was named 1st-Tm All-America by several different services after avg 31.3 yds per return with 3 TD’s. Page also had 99 rec (11.2) and 8 TD’s.

Also Northern Illinois RB Chad Spann was voted as the conference’s top football player after rushing for 1,388 yds (5.4) and set the NIU school record with 22 rushing touchdowns in a single season and he finished his career with 50 career touchdowns.

Finally Buffalo DB Davonte Shannon became one of only 4 players in MAC history to be named 1st Team All-MAC four times!

This year figures to be just as exciting for the MAC as they announced their 2011 football schedules on Monday, which is nearly a month earlier than usual.

The schedule will feature at least 15 regular season games on the ESPN networks and the regular season will conclude with the 14th MAC Championship game on Friday, December 2 at Ford Field in Detroit on ESPN2.  This will be the 8th year the game will be played at Ford Field.

The schedule will also feature a non-conference slate of opponents from 5 of the BCS conferences including 11 games against the Big Ten, 9 games vs the Big East, 4 games vs the Big 12, 3 games vs the SEC, and 2 games vs the ACC.

The season kicks off on Thursday, September 1st with four MAC teams in action highlighted by Bowling Green traveling to Idaho in a rematch of an exciting 2009 Humanitarian Bowl. Also on that day Villanova plays Temple in Owls coach Steve Addazio’s debut as the past two meetings have gone down to the final minute.

The 1st Saturday of the college football season will see the MAC playing 6 games against BCS conference teams highlighted by Western Michigan playing at in-state foe Michigan in Brady Hoke’s debut, Kent St travels down to Tuscaloosa to take on Alabama and Ball St hosts Indiana in the very first college game played at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

September 17th features several key non-conference matchups. First, Boise St travels east to take on Toledo. Also Temple hosts Penn St and defending Big 10 champ Wisconsin takes on Northern Illinois at Soldier Field in Chicago in the 2nd college game played there recently.

October 1st will see the first Saturday with a lot of conference action highlighted by Toledo traveling to Temple while October 15th is the first Saturday with nothing but conference games highlighted by rivalries such as Toledo at Bowling Green, Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan and a key game in the MAC West with Western Michigan at Northern Illinois.

The month of November will see the MAC play at least 15 mid-week league games televised by the ESPN networks highlighted by Northern Illinois at Toledo on Tuesday, November 1. The regular season action concludes on Friday, November 25 featuring 5 conference games including Toledo at Ball St, Buffalo at Bowling Green and Kent St at Temple.

To get complete schedules on all 13 MAC schools click here and make sure to select any game to get all the matchups played between the two teams in the last 13 years with complete statistics including first downs, rushing, passing, sacks, TO’s and much more.

Also don’t forget to check out our Spring Central section to get all the conference schedules, coaching changes, who’s back/who’s not and all the NFL Draft early entrants.

Finally within the next week we will start our coverage of the 2011 NFL Draft with bios on all the top players at each position complete with stats, strengths, weaknesses and projections on what round they will be drafted only at PhilSteele.com!

A lot of people ask me if I have a favorite team. I was born and raised and still live in Cleveland, Ohio. I was a fan of many teams as a child but now that I put out a National magazine, I cannot afford to be a fan of any team. I have to pick the teams where I think they will finish each year. I was doing a radio show last week and I was asked if I have a favorite team or teams. My response was a strong YES! The interviewer was surprised by that answer and also eager to hear which team I would pick. My answer was my favorite team each year is the team I pick #1 in the magazine and my favorite teams are the ones I have picked higher than all the other major magazines out there. I then said that each year I establish a list of my favorite teams for that year. I then give this list to my wife. I wear a shirt and tie to work every day during the week and my tie is always a college team. I wear polo shirts during the weekend and when not at work and they are always different college teams. The list I give my wife is the ones to buy that I will be wearing for the upcoming year as these are the teams I will be the biggest fan of for the upcoming season. I was then asked “What teams will your wife be buying ties and shirts of this year? That was a great question and I thought I would answer it in a blog.

I went to preseason.stassen.com to find out where all the magazines have everyone ranked for the upcoming year. Here is the list of teams that I will be rooting for the most this year.

First I want to mention that my favorite shirt is naturally the PhilSteele.com shirt that will soon be available for you to purchase on the PhilSteele.com store but you can get a sneak peek at what they look like by clicking here.

Oklahoma-As I said every year the team that is my pick to win the national title is my favorite team of the year and this year that team is the Oklahoma Sooners who I feel are way undervalued. There are numerous reasons that have them pointing for a banner season. Last year, the Sooners lost 42 starts to injury, which was THIRD highest in the country. Also they suffered four close losses, which means they were just a play or two away in each game from having a much better record. Statistically they were the best team in the entire Big 12 as they outgained their opponents by 133 ypg! They also had an inexperienced offensive line and were starting a frosh QB due to injury. Naturally this year they are in much better shape at both those positions. The Sooners this year remind me very much of my 2008 pick to win it all, which was the Florida Gators. Coming into the season Florida was not even favored to win the SEC East as Georgia finished the 2007 season #2 and were returning both QB Stafford and RB Moreno. Meanwhile the Gators were coming off a four-loss season. However, when the dust cleared on the season, Tebow and company delivered for me as they won the national title. I have picked the Big 12 South winner the last 7 years and will be going for 8 this year. Last year during the Red River Shootout, I was decked out in Texas gear including my Longhorn hat as I picked Texas to play for the national title. However this year I hope Bob Stoops can regain his “Big Game Bob” moniker as I will be decked out in Sooners garb all season.

North Texas-The Mean Green made my most improved list so you knew I was rooting for them right from the start. Over the past 12 years of all the teams that had losing records the previous year, only 20% improve to bowl eligibility the next year. The last two years my Most Improved list has had 69% of the teams go from a losing record to bowl eligibility! Most magazines look at the past performances for North Texas (2-20 last 5 years in the Sun Belt) and pick them 8th in the SBC or 2nd last. Every year is a new year and I think this is the season it all falls into place for NT and I have them THIRD in the Sun Belt! Get me those North Texas polo shirts and ties as I will be rooting for North Texas every week this season!

California - The Bears have been disappointing fans for years. Last year Cal opened the year #12 in the polls and finished unranked and a disappointing 8-5 including a bowl loss to Utah and a blowout 42-10 loss to Washington in their last 2 games. In 2007 they were #12 and finished unranked and just 7-6 needing a bowl comeback win to avoid a losing season. This year writers have thrown Cal in the trash can and they are primarily picked 7th or 8th in the very competitive Pac 10. I have them tied for 3rd! Cal does have the benefit of only 4 Pac 10 road games and one of those is against Wash St meaning most of their winnable games are at home. Both their offensive and defensive lines rank in my top units and I will be rooting for the Golden Bears almost every week this season!

Western Michigan – Bill Cubit is one of the most underrated coaches in the country and I think this year he ends up MAC coach of the year and some smart BCS school snatches him up. Most people when they look at a team look at last years record (5-7) and if the QB and top RB are returning. WM loses both QB Hiller and RB West (1164 yards) and if that is how you rate a team you will not be very high on WM this year. I look at a team that was wiped out on defense last year due to graduation and now has a much more experienced group on that side of the ball. I like the replacements at QB and RB and they are talented at WR and the offensive line. Most have Western finishing FOURTH in the MAC West while I have them playing in the MAC title game. I was an Ohio Bobcat fan last year and they did not disappoint, no doubt I am a huge Broncos fan this year!

USF – USF has been the poster child for an underachieving team the last few years. They have reached the top 10 in both 2007 and 2008 but finished each year unranked. Last year they were an average 8-5 team and they are just 5-9 in Big East play the last two years. The other magazines must be bitter about those finishes as they have pegged them 6th this year despite the fact they return 15 starters including QB BJ Daniels. Remember last year they opened 5-0 despite losing their starting QB Grothe to injury in week 3. The biggest news this year is that Skip Holtz takes over as head coach. The last two years he has had only the 3rd or 4th most talented team in CUSA but has a pair of CUSA championship rings! He gets the most out of the talent on hand and inherits a very talented team. I have them pegged to finish in a tie for 3rd and consider them a Big East title contender this year. I already have a South Florida tie, so I guess I will just pick up a polo shirt this year.

UAB – When Neil Calloway took over he had a scholarship depleted team and were an easy pick for me as I picked them last in the CUSA East and they were 1-7 and landed right there. Calloway has done a solid job the last two years getting the team to go 7-9 in conference play and this year is finally up to scholarship limits and has 16 returning starters to boot. Joe Webb their outstanding QB is gone but that is the only position that is weaker this year. Most magazines have them 5th or 6th but I have them in a tie for 3rd in the CUSA East. This will be the first time in a long time I will be
rooting for the Blazers but I have to think their logos on the Polo shirt would be pretty cool with the Dragon breathing fire, so that should be a good shirt to add to the collection.

Arizona – Last year Arizona was on this list but after checking my closet, I did not get Wildcat polo. Last year Arizona was picked 5th by Lindy’s, 6th by USA Today and EIGHTH by Athlon and The Sporting News and I had them tied for 3rd. Arizona finished tied for 2nd so I was very pleased. Rarely do I get the chance to root for the same team two straight years. This year I picked them tied for third in the Pac 10 again but the other publications have them 5th, 6th or even 7th (Blue Ribbon). Only one source in the country has Arizona RANKED this year and that is my magazine and I consider them a Pac-10 title contender. It is time to get that Wildcat shirt this year!

Miami, Fl- The Hurricanes are my pick to not only win the ACC Coastal this year but they are my favorite to win the overall ACC Title! I have the Canes ranked #9 in the country while other magazines such as Lindy’s, Blue Ribbon and USA Today all picked them to finish as low as 4th in their division!

Penn St-I have the Nittany Lions picked to finish tied for 2nd this year while everyone else has them 4th. I already have a Penn St tie but this year I think it’s time to finally get that polo shirt.

Maryland-Last year I was rooting against Maryland on a weekly basis. Despite coming off an 8 win season that included a bowl win, I picked the Terps to finish in last place which is precisely where they ended up. This year they are in much better shape and make my most improved list. While the Terps are the sheik pick to finish 6th again, I have them rated higher and will be a big fan of them this year in stark contrast to last season.

Michigan-Like I said earlier, I have no allegiances to any team other than where my magazine predicts them. While I have been born and raised in the state of Ohio my entire life and as a child rooted for Ohio St, this year the Wolverines make my most improved list and I have them playing in the Gator Bowl against LSU. While I have the Wolverines picked to finish tied for 5th, other magazines like Athlon and Sporting News have them picked 8th. I will have no trouble rooting for Michigan in most games this year.

Colorado-My first impression of the Buffaloes this year was to pick them to finish 6th in the Big 12 North as they were one of the few teams to make my most improved list but did not go to a bowl as they finished a pathetic 3-9. However, that was my mindset when I started but after compiling all of my research in May, I think they have the most improved OL in the country and will make a bowl this year.  I have them picked to finish 4th which is far higher than most of the other magazines. I already have a Colorado polo shirt, now it’s time to get a tie!

Auburn-After I finish writing my magazine in May, I go thru every game of the upcoming season and figure out who I think will be the favorite/dog in each game. After finishing Auburn’s schedule I did not have the Tigers as an underdog in any of their first 11 games (2 pick-ems)!  While Auburn is picked to finish 3, 4 or 5 by most magazines this year, I have them picked 2nd in the SEC West thanks to a great SEC schedule. Surprisingly I have no Auburn polo shirts and I definitely think it’s time to pick one up this year!

Ball St-The Cardinals are another team that I rooted against last year, but this year will be rooting heavily for.  In 2008, the Cards finished the regular season at 12-0 but the following year, I picked them 5th in the MAC West which is where they ended up. Last year they were very inexperienced and had a new coach. This year they have 19 returning starters and while Stan Parrish’s 4-41-1 overall record as head coach gets a lot of publicity, I think a lot of it is due to mitigating circumstances. I do feel Parrish is a quality coach and will get the most out of his team this year. While most magazines have them picked to finish 5th again, I have them tied for 3rd!

Kent St-Last year the Golden Flashes came close to being a bowl eligible squad as they suffered 3 close losses. This year they get back RB Eugene Jarvis who I am a big fan of and I will call for them to finally break thru as I have them ranked #11 on my most improved list.

Baylor-The Bears have not been to a bowl game since 1994 and this year they make my most improved list (losing season to bowl eligibility). Naturally, I will be rooting for them very hard this year!

Fresno St-Last year the Bulldogs could have beaten both Wisconsin and Cincinnati on the road. While I don’t think they will win at Boise this year, they could upset Nevada at home. I have them tied for 2nd in the WAC which is higher than all the other preseason magazines as the Sporting News and Gold Sheet both have them tied for 5th.

San Diego St-The Aztecs make my most improved list (#6) and have one of the best coaching staffs in the country. This year I think QB Lindley will be more comfortable behind center as the Aztecs make their first bowl game since 1998!

West Virginia-This year I have the Mountaineers tied for first in the Big East which is higher than most of the other preseason magazines. I already have my West Virginia shirt that I wear all the time and this year I will be wearing it some more!

Only 21 Days Until the First College Football Game!

I have gotten many requests to do a blog to explain how I compute each teams home field edge in the magazine. I have 27 different factors in my computer’s grade of a team. I then compare the computer’s analysis to my own and make the final decision.
While I mention that there are 27 factors in my home field computer ratings, there are actually nine individual factors that I use each year and I then combine the grades for the last three years giving half of the grade to last year, 30% to the numbers from two years ago and 20% to the computer rankings from three years ago.

Today I will go over the nine different areas that I use to rate home field edge. The first category is the stadium capacity. The largest stadium in the country last year was Penn St which held 107,282 and my computer gave them the maximum score of 6 for that category. My home field edges go from 0 to 6 in the magazine so they have the same scale in the computer. The smallest capacity is Idaho’s Kibbie Dome which seated just 16,000 and they received a 0 in that category. The rest of the capacities are done with a simple equation of Capacity-16,000 divided by 15,250. The reason I divide by 15,250 is that Penn St at 107,282-16,000 = 91,282 and 91,282 divided by 6 (0-6 scale) = 15,214 and I rounded up to get the 15,250. You can figure out what your favorite team is graded in this category by using this simple equation.

The second category is actual attendance reported by the school in 2009. Once again Michigan was at the top with 108,933 and this time the team at the bottom was Eastern Michigan which averaged just 5,016 fans per game last year. I used the same method as above to turn this data into a 0 to 6 rating where Michigan received a 6, Eastern Michigan a 0 and as an example Idaho with an attendance of 12,546 earned a 0.33 grade.

The third category is % of capacity. Let’s face it, a crowd of 45,000 in a 45,000 seat stadium is louder than a crowd of 45,000 in a half-full 90,000 seat stadium. The winner in this category last year was Oregon and at 108% of capacity as they had an avg attendance of 58,544 with a listed capacity of 54,000. Texas also had a 108% capacity with an avg attendance of 101,175 with a stadium capacity of 93,553. There were 13 schools that had a larger average attendance than their listed capacity last year. At the bottom of this category was Eastern Michigan again which brought in an average of 5,016 fans to their 30,200 seat stadium which is just 16.6%. Four teams had an average attendance of less than 30% capacity and 10 had an average attendance of less than 50% of capacity.

The next category is last years straight up win/loss record for each team at home. There were 15 teams last year that finished with an undefeated record at home while there were 3 teams last year that were actually winless at home. Those 3 teams were Eastern Michigan, Ball St and Western Kentucky.

The fifth category is the last 3 years SU records at home. Oklahoma and Boise St are both undefeated at home in that span while Houston, TCU, Texas, Troy and Utah all have just one loss. At the bottom of the scale is North Texas who has won just 3 home games in the last 3 years. Once again this is on a 0-6 point basis.

The next category is the last 5 years records at home. Boise St comes in #1 here at a perfect 32-0 with Oklahoma losing just 1 game at home. Florida is next up with just 2 losses. North Texas is at the bottom at 5-21 over 5 years while Duke is 6-25.

Sometimes teams compile great home records because they play a bunch of cupcakes. Sometimes teams compile a weak record because they play a large amount of ranked teams. The easiest way to determine if a team played above or below expectations is to look at their records against the Las Vegas spread. If a team was favored to win by 30 that means the opponent was weak and a 3 point win is unimpressive vs that caliber of opponent. I weigh each of the different factors and the actual home win record is given twice the weight of the ATS record. I used the records for last year, the last 3 years and the last 5 years. The best record over the last 5 years is CMU at 17-5 with TCU #2 at 20-7 and UCLA #3 at 23-9. At the bottom are Duke at 7-20, Fresno at 7-18 and Tulane at 8-19.

I then factor in the 9 categories from the 2008 and 2007 seasons which gives me 27 categories for the computer to factor in and I have them appropriately weighted. I then look at the computer’s grade which had Oklahoma #1 with a 5.61 home edge. Florida #2 at 5.48 and Texas #3 at 5.47. At the bottom the computer has Eastern Michigan #120 at 1.31, North Texas #119 at 1.51 and Duke #118 at 1.78.

The final category is my own personal grade. I have 12 TV’s in front of me and watch 12 games all day long on Saturday and watch every nighttime game on ESPN. I can hear the crowd noise at each stadium and I weigh in how many times I thought it was a factor in a game. I look at how good the team has been the last 5 years and what percentage of games they win at home and on the road in my personal evaluation.

After that evaluation, I gave three teams a 6-point home edge in this year’s magazine in Virginia Tech, Boise St and Oregon. Oklahoma has a 5.75 grade while Florida, Penn St, Ohio St and Texas all earned 5.5 grades from me. At the bottom of the scale I gave a 1.5 point home edge to Eastern Michigan with North Texas, Kent St, Duke, FIU, New Mexico St and Tulane all earning 2s.

Here are all my 2010 Homefield edges for all 120 Teams.

Only 24 Days Away Until the First College Football Game!!!

For the next two weeks, I will be taking a look at the conference teams of the decade for 2000-2009. Factored into my analysis will be conference win %, conference and division titles, bowl games and bowl wins. I will also include BCS bowl wins, final AP rankings and number of national championships for the major conferences. There have been several teams who have changed conferences during that time and I will include them in the analysis for any season(s) they were affiliated with that certain conference. I will also be doing a breakdown of how the conference did in bowl games during the decade and I will emphasis the overall win/loss record, the number of BCS bowl wins, and the records against Non-BCS and ranked bowl teams.

While some conferences may have no-brainers as the top team, other conferences were very competitive over the past decade. Here is the schedule for the upcoming week with the conferences I will be analyzing on each date.

Yesterday Sun Belt 
Today MAC 
Tomorrow WAC 
Thursday CUSA 
Friday MWC 
Saturday Big East 
Monday, July 5th Pac-10 
Tuesday, July 6th ACC 
Wednesday, July 7th Big 12 
Thursday, July 8th Big 10 
Friday, July 9th SEC

The MAC opened the decade with 13 teams and added UCF in 2002. They were in the league for just 3 years before they left for CUSA along with Marshall. That put them back to 12 teams for two years but they added Temple in 2007. It was a very even league in terms of overall titles. With last year’s title, Central Michigan finished the decade with 3 while Marshall and Toledo had 2 league titles. Miami Oh, Akron and Buffalo all have one and 7 of the leagues current teams have 0.

Only two teams have not won at least a share of a division title this decade in Kent St and Eastern Michigan. Miami, Oh and Toledo are at the top with 4 each. Central Michigan, Marshall, Bowling Green, Ohio and Northern Illinois have 3 each while Akron, Buffalo and Ball St have two. Tied with one are Western Michigan and Temple.

Here are my overall Rankings for MAC teams of the decade.

MAC Rankings ’00-09

Despite the fact that Marshall was only in the league for 5 years, their 80% win % was far superior to the rest of the league and they did finish in a tie for second with 2 league titles. Their 3 division titles also tied for 2nd best and the Thundering Herd won three bowl games in that five year span which finished 1st in the league! With all things considered Marshall is my MAC team of the decade for 2000-2009!

Just a couple of years ago, Toledo appeared lock for the title with 2 league titles, four division titles and four bowl games. However, after four straight losing seasons to finish the decade the Rockets fall to #2 as their 62% win % was far below Marshall.

Keep in mind this list considers the entire decade. If I were to name the team of recent memory it would clearly be Central Michigan who has won 3 titles since 2006. However, the Chippewas started the decade with five straight losing seasons and were just 10-30 in league play. Because of this horrible start, I can’t imagine my team of the decade with just a 53% win % and since the Rockets were 7 full games ahead of Central in the wins/losses, the Chippewas fall to #3 in this list despite having the most titles.

Bowling Green, Miami, Oh and Northern Illinois all had successful decades in MAC play and they deserve mention here. Miami, Oh won the MAC in 2003 and had a chance at being named team of the decade until falling on hard times the last couple of seasons. BG hired Urban Meyer in 2001 and has been consistent with only one losing season since. The Falcons also have the MAC’s only bowl win over a BCS conf team this past decade in 2003 (Northwestern). Northern Illinois also had a nice decade with four bowl appearances and three division titles.

Here are the overall bowl records for MAC teams during the course of the decade. Keep in mind for UCF and Marshall, these bowl records are only from their seasons when they were in the MAC.

MAC Bowl Records ’00-’09

The MAC was just 11-20 overall in Bowl games this past decade due mostly to their 1-9 record against BCS conference teams. The conference teams that entered the bowl season ranked were 3-1. (2001 #25 Toledo W, 2003 #14 Miami, Oh W, 2008 #23 Ball St L 2009 #25 Central Michigan W). 

I will be back tomorrow with a look at the team of the decade in the WAC and if you have been following college football over the past 10 years it should come as no surprise.

Also please check PhilSteele.com everyday to get my FCS Top 25 Countdown, which continues with #22 Jacksonville St. Thru July 20th, I will post both magazine pages on a new team ranked in the Top 25 and you can get an early look on how I breakdown your favorite FCS team. Remember those magazine pages are available for only 24 hours for you to download as the next team will be posted the following day.

Only 65 Days Until the First College Football Game!!!

My 2010 College Football Preview Magazine has so much information in it that it would take months to go thru it all. It is like 120 media guides rolled into one. 

Magazine is a loose term for it as the Preview is more like a book with over 100 pages more than any other college football magazine. Not only does it have more pages but the magazine has 2 to 3 times the amount of information on each page! That gives my magazine 3 to 4 times the amount of information of any other magazine!

I mention all of this because there are even parts of the magazine that I myself forget about during the year. Every spring once I have finished my conference write ups, Top 40, All-American and All-Conference Teams I wrap up the “other” pages in the magazine. One of those pages that I find a lot of fun is the projected stats which is on page 324 and 327.

I have in-depth power ratings which rates each team’s rush offense, pass offense and points scored as well as all three categories for the defense. I have my computer match up each team vs all of their opponents and play the games out during the year. These projected statistics are not some random number I throw into the back of the magazine to fill up space (I never have ANYTHING in the magazine that is used for filler!). They take into account this year’s team vs this year’s schedule and they are remarkably accurate.

Let me give you a few examples from last year: 

North Texas allowed 47.6 ppg on defense in 2008. When I threw their numbers into my computer in the spring of 2009, my computer said that North Texas would make great strides and allow just 32.4 ppg in 2009 and they were my #1 Most Improved Team in Def PPG. When the dust cleared from the 2009 season North Texas allowed 35.6 ppg, a 12 ppg improvement which easily was one of the best in the country.

On the offensive side, Michigan avg just 20.3 ppg in 2008. In 2009 the Wolverines were in their 2nd year of Rich Rodriguez’s spread offense and they brought in two super frosh QB’s who were better adept at running the ball. In the spring, my computer took those factors in account and projected the Wolverines to avg. 30.5 ppg in ’09 which ranked as my Most Improved PPG in the country! Even though Michigan finished just 5-7 last year, their offense improved dramatically and avg 29.5 ppg which was just 1 ppg off of my computer’s projection that was made months in advance!

I could go on and on with the examples because I find projecting statistics as fascinating as projecting wins and losses. If you check out pages 324 and 327 you will get my complete statistical projection for each team in both yards and points for the year.

Also if you need a complete breakdown of the accuracy of my computer’s projections for Most Improved Teams check out my February 17-March 1 blogs (in the archives) and you will be amazed at how close my computer projects the most improved and least improved teams in several categories.

Here are the Top 15 Offenses this year in “Most Improved Points Scored.”

Most Improved Offensive PPG

Most Improved Defensive PPG

My Top 30 Countdown concludes today with #1 Oklahoma, which is a surprise to many across the country. Click on the link (on the homepage) to download both magazine pages to get my reasons why they are #1. Remember those magazine pages are available for only 24 hours for you to download.

Only 78 DAYS LEFT UNTIL THE FIRST COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME!!

In the past several blogs I have been breaking down each factor that goes into my New and Improved Experience Chart and today I conclude the series by combining the five factors into my final ranking.

For more than 7 years I have listed an experience chart, which broke down the number of seniors, juniors, sophomores and freshmen each team had in the two deep and rated the teams experience level with a formula I devised. Last year I made the experience chart FIVE TIMES better.

We still do the exact same chart but now I just list the Senior starters, the rest of the seniors in the two deep and the points accumulated by using the system I used from 2002-‘08. In the chart listed below I have now included 4 other factors. The 2nd factor listed in the chart below is the % of lettermen returning. I devised a point system for this and explain it in depth on page 319 of this year’s magazine. Also added was the % of returning offensive yards. I took the total yards passing, rushing and receiving for each team and divided out the yardage of the returning players and the yards returning % listed below is that figure. I did the same with the total tackles from last year and the % of tackles returning. This gives us an idea of the defense’s experience. The final factor is the career starts returning for the offensive line. These players are not included in the stats but are a vital part of the offense.

I then devised a formula that factors all 5 into the total points equation and then turned the point total into a number from 100 to 0. A 100 would be a team with 25 seniors (NCAA scholarship limit) in the two deep and every yard and tackle returning and 120+ career starts on the offensive line. A 0 would be a team with no experience and 0 seniors in the two deep. Just as in years past the first number is where each team ranks in the NCAA.

If you have been following the past couple of experience blogs, it should come at no surprise that Boise St has the most experience points for 2010 with 92, which is 12 points higher than #2 Arkansas. Utah St, Ball St and North Texas round out the Top 5 and all three of those teams are looking to improve upon last year. North Carolina is the 2nd highest BCS school with 77.8 pts.

At the bottom of the chart is #120 Oklahoma St who last year ranked #10 and the Cowboys are clearly less experienced this year. Tennessee comes in at #119 and HC Derek Dooley will not be the only new face on the Volunteer sidelines this fall. Bowling Green, Mississsippi and Arizona St round out the bottom 5.

Here is the complete New and Improved Experience Chart which is featured on page 311 in this year’s magazine.

Please check PhilSteele.com everyday to get my Top 30 Countdown, which posted #14 Iowa yesterday. Thru June 16th, I will post both magazine pages on a new team ranked in the Top 30 and you can get an early look on how I breakdown your favorite team. Remember those magazine pages are available for only 24 hours for you to download. Today, Virginia Tech comes in at #13.

Also the official on sale date of the magazine is June 8th, but a lot of people have already seen them in the bookstores where the cost is just $8.95. We did get a shipment into our offices this past week and if you want to order thru the offices the cost is $13.70 with postage. Call 1-866-918-7711 or visit the PhilSteele.com store to order yours today.

I will be back tomorrow with complete details on how you can join me in a live one hour chat on Tuesday, June 8th.

Only 90 DAYS LEFT UNTIL THE FIRST COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME!!!

2009 was a memorable year for many of the teams and players in the Mid-American Conference. The ’09 season saw the conference send five of its teams to bowl games for a 2nd straight year and league champ Central Michigan ended the conference’s 14 game bowl losing streak by defeating Troy 44-41 in 2OT in the GMAC Bowl. The Chippewas also finished in the final AP Top 25 at #23.

Temple had one of its best seasons in school history by winning 9 straight games and made their 1st bowl appearance since 1979! Temple HC Al Golden was named MAC coach of the year as the Owls have improved their win total in each of his 4 seasons as coach. With Temple breaking their bowl drought, 11 MAC teams have now been to a bowl game since 2004! 

I was very pleased with the way the East Division played out in ‘09 as my magazine was the only magazine in the country to have Ohio winning the division. Every other magazine had the Bobcats projected 4th or lower! Frank Solich has done a great job here as the Bobcats were just 11-35 in the 4 years prior to his arrival. Since 2006, Ohio is 28-24 including 2 appearances in the MAC Title game!

2009 was also a banner year for several MAC players including Bowling Green WR Freddie Barnes who was a Biletnikoff award finalist. Barnes had a dream season in ‘09 by smashing the all-time NCAA single season reception mark with 155 (11.4) and 19 TDs!

Central Michigan QB Dan LeFevour set the all-time NCAA total TD mark (rushing, passing, receiving) with 150 and also finished 2nd all-time in total yards with 15,853. 

Finally Toledo DB Barry Church became one of only 3 players in MAC history to be named 1st Team All-MAC four times!

This year figures to be just as exciting for the MAC as they announced their 2010 football schedules on Monday, which is nearly a month earlier than usual.

The schedule will feature at least 19 regular season games on the ESPN networks and the regular season will conclude with the 13th MAC Championship game on Friday, December 3 at Ford Field in Detroit on ESPN2.  This will be the 7th year the game will be played at Ford Field.

The schedule will also feature a non-conference slate of opponents from all 6 BCS conferences including 11 games against the Big Ten, 4 games vs the Big East, 3 games vs the SEC, Big 12 and ACC and 1 game vs the Pac-10.

The season kicks off on Thursday, September 2nd with 5 MAC teams in action highlighted by Northern Illinois traveling to Iowa St in a matchup between two bowl teams in ‘09. On Friday, September 3rd Toledo hosts Arizona in what arguably will be the MAC’s biggest non-conference home game in 2010. The Rockets (5-7 in ’09) will look to improve in HC Tim Beckman’s 2nd year while the Wildcats are fresh off their best season since ’98.  The game will be televised on ESPN at 8 pm EST.

The 1st Saturday of the college football season will see the MAC playing 3 games against BCS conference teams with Akron hosting Syracuse, Western Michigan playing at in-state foe Michigan St and Miami traveling down to Gainesville to take on Florida.

September 11th features 3 conference games highlighted by defending MAC champ Central Michigan traveling to Temple. On September 25th there will be 8 games involving teams from the MAC and Big Ten highlighted by Bowling Green at Michigan, Temple at Penn St, and Eastern Michigan at Ohio St as the two conferences continue their longstanding relationship.

October 9th will see two MAC schools taking on non-conference marquee teams as Toledo will travel to Boise St and Central Michigan will visit Virginia Tech. On October 16th, in what possibly is the biggest non-conference game of the year for the MAC sees Western Michigan traveling to Notre Dame. While MAC teams are 0-4 all-time vs Notre Dame, all of the games were played prior to 1921 and this game will mark the 1st time since it was founded in 1946 that a MAC school will play against the Irish!

The month of November will see the MAC play 10 mid-week league games televised by the ESPN networks highlighted by Bowling Green at Toledo on Wednesday, November 17. The regular season action concludes on Friday, November 26 featuring 5 conference games including Central Michigan at Toledo and Ohio at Kent St.

To get complete schedules on all 13 MAC schools click here and make sure to select any game to get all the matchups played between the two teams in the last 13 years with complete statistics including first downs, rushing, passing, sacks, TO’s and much more.

Also don’t forget to check out our Spring Central section to get all the conference schedules, coaching changes, who’s back/who’s not and all the NFL Draft early entrants.

Finally within the next week we will start our coverage of the 2010 NFL Draft with bios on all the top players at each position complete with stats, strengths, weaknesses and projections on what round they will be drafted only at PhilSteele.com!

In my 2009 College Preview Magazine on pgs 324 and 327 I included my computer’s projected stats in 2009 for all 120 FBS teams. There were several different categories including rush offense/defense, pass offense/defense, offensive pts and defensive pts.

On the right hand side of the page I listed the teams that my computer projected to be most improved in ’09 compared to ’08 season in 6 different categories. I had them ranked in order from Most Improved all the way down to the Least Improved and included the top 15 in each category along with the bottom 5.

In today’s blog I have included my projections of the teams I thought would be most improved in pass offense heading into the 2009 season and how they finished in the final NCAA rankings.

In the coming days I will feature a different category in each blog and I think you will be happy with the results of the accuracy of my projections.

Most Improved Pass Offense 2009

Preseason Projection

Final Rankings

As you can see my projections were pretty close. I nailed 6 of the top 13 most improved teams and 10 of my top 15 teams finished #28 or better! 14 of my 15 teams (93.3%) saw their pass offense ypg improve and on avg my top 15 improved their pass offense by 50 ypg in 09!

My bottom 5 results were even more accurate. All 5 of my projected bottom teams in pass offense ypg saw their ppg decrease at least 44.9 ypg in 09 and all 5 of the teams finished 104th or worse! 4 of my projected preseason teams finished in the bottom 6 and on average the 5 teams had a pass offense decrease of 122.82 ypg in 09!

Heading into the season I thought New Mexico would have the most improved pass offense as they were switching to a no-huddle, high tempo, wide open spread offense under new HC Locksley. Despite the 1-11 overall record, the Lobos passing game was a bright spot avg 215.1 ypg in 09 a 83.75 ypg increase!

When my magazine was published in May I had Syracuse as the #2 most improved pass offense and that was before they acquired Duke transfer Greg Paulus in the summer. The Orange would go on to avg 203.8 ypg a 83.75 ypg improvement despite losing WR Williams mid year.

In my bottom 5 all of the teams were either losing a veteran QB or going thru a coaching change. Just like I predicted all of the teams saw their pass offense ypg drop in ’09 and with the exception of Missouri who still finished with a 44.9 ypg decrease, my bottom teams all had their pass offense ypg drop at least 100 ypg in 09!

Overall 19 of the 20 teams (95%) that were featured in my magazine finished with either a higher ypg or lower ypg just as I projected!

Complete List of all 120 Teams