Every year in my magazine, I list my Top Non-AQ teams for that particular year and over the course of the last six seasons I have had great success!

In 2006, my top non-AQ team was Boise St and I PROJECTED THEM INTO A BCS BOWL and they went undefeated and got to the Fiesta Bowl where they beat Oklahoma. In 2007, I called for Hawaii to go 12-0 and grab a SUGAR BOWL BERTH and that is exactly what they did!

In 2008 my top non-AQ team was Utah and while they were NOT RANKED in the preseason and no one picked them to even win the MWC at the start of the year except me, they finished unbeaten and #2 in the country! In 2009 my Top non-AQ team was Boise St and when they beat TCU in the Fiesta Bowl they finished #4 and the top non-AQ team in the country. In 2010 it was FIVE in a row. EVERYONE had Boise St as their top non AQ team but I went against the grain and picked TCU and coach Patterson and company did not disappoint as they knocked off Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl and finished #2 in the country, naturally the top rated non AQ team out there (Boise #9!)

My Top Non-AQ Teams for 2011 as Featured in my College Preview Magazine Published in May!

This past year I picked Boise St as my Top Non-AQ Team and the Broncos came within one missed 39-yard FG vs TCU away from yet another unbeaten season and a possible berth in the national title game as LSU and Boise would have been the only two remaining unbeaten teams. Keep in mind there was a lot of resentment against having an Alabama/LSU rematch and there probably would have been some support for Boise and the little guys to finally get their shot at the title. The Broncos were even shutout of a BCS game but would go on to finish 12-1 and #8 in the AP poll ranking ahead of every other Non-AQ team.  That means in the 6 years I have posted my Top non-AQ team 5 of them have gone to BCS bowls and ALL SIX have finished as the best non-AQ team!

Also listed in this past year’s magazine were 5 other Top Non-AQ teams and I am very pleased with their success as well. Each of the top 5 Non-AQ teams finished in the top 25 of either the final AP or Coaches poll and all SIX of them had double digit wins!

TCU was my #2 AQ team and the Horned Frogs despite returning the 2nd fewest amount of starters in the country won the MWC title finishing with 11 wins and indeed finished as the #2 Non-AQ team at #14 in the AP Poll. My #3 Non-AQ team was Southern Miss and the Golden Eagles would finish with their best season in school history with 12 wins and a #20 AP finish which included an upset over my #4 Non-AQ team Houston in the CUSA Championship Game. The Cougars also had a dream season finishing with 13 wins and a #18 finish in the AP poll. Also listed was BYU who won 10 games and finished #26 in the AP poll and #25 in the Coaches’ Poll while Ohio was my #6 Top Non-AQ team and the Bobcats finished with their first double digit win season since 1968!

This year I’m going for SEVEN IN A ROW! So make sure you buy my pre-season college football preview to see which Non-AQ team will top my chart with a great shot at grabbing a BCS Bowl next year!

In yesterday’s blog I took a look at home records from the past decade and today I will look at how team’s have performed on the road the past decade. Here are the away records for all 120 teams the past 10 years.

Away Records 2001-2010

The king of the road warriors is Texas which is 39-5 on the road this decade. I know that Mark Richt has a great record in opposing home stadiums and this is shown by Georgia’s 34-10 record on the road this decade. The usual suspects are at the top with Oklahoma, Boise St, Ohio St, USC, Virginia Tech, Miami Fl, LSU, TCU, Florida and Oregon all winning over 64% of the time on the road.

Yesterday I pointed out that the average home winning percentage for all 120 FBS teams was 63.2% (4625-2690). The 120 teams are a combined 2642-3959 on the road or just 40.02%. Yes, those numbers add up to more than 100% but that is because wins at home and on the road vs FCS teams (1AA) only count in the win column and not in the loss column.

Yesterday I pointed out that just 23 teams had a losing record at home this decade. The numbers are similar on the road with just 29 teams able to post winning records away from home this decade. Those 29 teams basically looks like a listing of the whose who in college football but there are a few surprises. Bowling Green and Louisville are not known as being powerhouses but make that list.

The teams at the bottom of the list are the usual suspects with Utah St taking the title for worst road record of the decade. The only teams that have been regularly in the postseason as of late that are in the bottom third are Kansas (23.9%) and Kentucky (31.3%).

Yesterday I took at look at home teams and the amount of wins they had as compared to the amount of times they were expected to lose (underdog). Today I look at road teams and the amount of wins they had as opposed to the amount of times they were expected to win on the road. First let me take a look at which teams have been favored the most on the road this decade. The winner is USC at 51 times or about 5 times a year. They have been favored in 51 of their 59 road games. Here is the top ten. 1. USC (51) 2. Boise St (46) 3. Texas (39) Tied at 4. Miami, Fl (38) and Utah (38) Tied at 6. Ohio State (37) and TCU (37) Tied at 8. Virginia Tech (36) and Oklahoma (36) 10. Florida St (35)

Buffalo from 2000-2008 had never been favored or expected to win a road game but in ‘09 were favored in two games. The others that have been favored on the road 4 times or less are Duke (1), Eastern Michigan (2) and Army (4). WKU has not been favored in any road game but has not had lined games for a full decade.

Here are the teams that have underperformed on the road this decade. Kansas St has been favored to win 23 games on the road this decade but has only won 14 of them for -9. There are 6 teams that have won 5 or fewer times than they have been favored this decade. I will list them in order and the number in parenthesis is the amount of times they have been favored minus the amount of actual road wins. Kansas St (9), USC (6), Oklahoma (6), Florida St (6), Nebraska (6), Michigan (5).

Now lets look at the teams that outperform expectations on the road. The team that has done the best is Ball St as they have been expected (favorite) to win just 13 road games but they have actually won 26 games on the road or +13. Here are the other teams that do better than expected on the road…Buffalo +11, Navy +11, ULM +10, Army +9 and Northwestern +9. I find it interesting that Notre Dame has only been expected to win 14 times on the road this decade yet are 23-23.

In an upcoming blog, I take a look at the biggest disparities between home and away records this decade.

Only 22 Days Until the First College Football Game!!!

In my July 28 blog, I gave you my homefield edges for 2011 and today I want to take a look at the best home records of the last decade and also look at some interesting variables. First here is the complete list of all 120 teams for home records.

Home Records 2001-2010

It is no surprise that Boise St is atop the list as their blue uniforms blend in with the blue turf giving them a unique advantage. Only one team has beaten them at home during the regular season and that was way back in 2001 when a Wash St team that finished 10-2 and #10 in the polls beat them 41-20. Their other home loss was in a bowl game vs Boston College 27-21 in 2005. While Boise has an incredible home record it must be factored in that they have played just 7 BCS conference schools at home this decade and are 5-2 in those games. That makes Oklahoma’s record of 61-2 even more remarkable. Almost all of their home games have been vs BCS foes and ironically one of their two home losses was to a non-BCS school when TCU beat them in 2005. Their other loss came when they were a 4 TD favorite to beat rival Oklahoma St which came into the game just 3-7 and that was the game that put Les Miles on the map. Oklahoma was caught looking ahead to their Big 12 title game vs Colorado the next week but that loss knocked them out of the game.

Eight teams have single digit losses at home this decade. Troy (6), Ohio St (7), TCU (7), USC (8), Texas (9), Utah (9) and Virginia Tech (9) have all lost less than 1 game at home per year. Here are some schools that rank near the top that the casual college football fan probably would not expect. Texas Tech is 51-11 at home this decade with Lubbock an out the way location with a loud home crowd. Despite having one of the smallest stadium capacities (44,500) for BCS schools, Boston College is 50-15 at Alumni. Northern Illinois is one of the loudest places to play despite the small capacity and they are 43-14 at home.

Is there an advantage to playing at home?

The 120 FBS teams have a combined home record of 4625-2690 which means that they win 63.2% of their home games. Also there are 97 of the 120 teams that have a record of .500 or better at home and just 23 teams that have a losing record at home this decade.

Let me take a closer look at the teams at the bottom of the list. All 23 teams listed above that had losing records at home have losing records overall this decade. There are 8 BCS conference schools on the list in Syracuse, Arizona, Washington, Indiana, Baylor, Mississippi St, Vanderbilt and Duke. When Duke wins opposing players usually say they were lulled to sleep by the high school sized crowds and they have pulled some upsets like upsetting Clemson in 2004 and Georgia Tech in 2003 but 6 of their 14 wins at home this decade have been vs FCS or 1AA foes so they are actually 8-47 at home vs FBS teams this decade.

That got me thinking of how many times a team has been an underdog at home this decade. Is there any team in the country that has not been an underdog even once at home? The answer is yes and it is Oklahoma who has lost only two of those. Florida has been a home dog just once in the “Swamp” and that was vs Florida St a game they did lose 38-34. Vegas linesmakers knew what they were doing with Boise St as they have been a home dog just twice this decade and those were their two home losses.

It probably does not surprise you that Duke has been a home dog 46 times this decade which is the most of any school.
That got me looking at two more scenarios. First of all which teams have been overrated at home. I took the amount of times a team was expected to lose at home (an underdog) and subtracted the amount of actual losses they suffered at home. There are 3 teams who lost 12 games (or more) than the amount of games they were expected to lose at home and the list is a little surprising. Florida St lost 18 games (12 in L/5 yrs) at home but were only a dog 4 times which puts them at the top of the list with 14.

Here are the teams that lost 12 or more games at home than was expected. 1. Florida St 14 2. Middle Tennessee 13 3. Southern Miss 12

Now lets take a look at the underrated home teams from this decade. I know Virginia has been a much better team at home than on the road. They are 43-22 at home and just 17-37 when playing on the road. It surprises me that they have been expected to lose (underdog) 29 times at home this decade and yet they have lost just 22 times. That is 7 full games better than expected and that is the 2nd best in the FBS. As you would expect the numbers are a lot lower for teams who actually have less losses at home than games they were expected to lose.

Here are the top 3 teams. Rice with 9. Virginia with 7 and Nevada with 5.

Tomorrow I take a look at the best road teams this decade.

23 Days Until the First College Football Game!!!

I have gotten many requests to do a blog to explain how I compute each teams home field edge in the magazine. I have 27 different factors in my computer’s grade of a team. I then compare the computer’s analysis to my own and make the final decision.

While I mention that there are 27 factors in my home field computer ratings, there are actually nine individual factors that I use each year and I then combine the grades for the last three years giving half of the grade to last year, 30% to the numbers from two years ago and 20% to the computer rankings from three years ago.

Today I will go over the nine different areas that I use to rate home field edge. The first category is the stadium capacity. The largest stadium in the country last year was Penn St which held 107,282 and my computer gave them the maximum score of 6 for that category. My home field edges go from 0 to 6 in the magazine so they have the same scale in the computer. The smallest capacity is Idaho’s Kibbie Dome which seated just 16,000 and they received a 0 in that category. The rest of the capacities are done with a simple equation of Capacity-16,000 divided by 15,250. The reason I divide by 15,250 is that Penn St at 107,282-16,000 = 91,282 and 91,282 divided by 6 (0-6 scale) = 15,214 and I rounded up to get the 15,250. You can figure out what your favorite team is graded in this category by using this simple equation.

The second category is actual attendance reported by the school in 2010. Once again Michigan was at the top with 111,825 and this time the team at the bottom was Ball St which averaged just 8,947 fans per game last year. I used the same method as above to turn this data into a 0 to 6 rating where Michigan received a 6, Ball St a 0 and as an example Florida St with an attendance of 71,270 earned a 4.15 grade.

The third category is % of capacity. Let’s face it, a crowd of 45,000 in a 45,000 seat stadium is louder than a crowd of 45,000 in a half-full 90,000 seat stadium. The winner in this category last year was Alabama at 111% of capacity as they had an avg attendance of 101,821 with a listed capacity of 92,138. Oregon had a 110% capacity with an avg attendance of 59,398 with a stadium capacity of 54,000. There were 10 schools that had a larger average attendance than their listed capacity last year. At the bottom of this category was UAB which brought in an average of 18,360 fans to their 72,000 seat stadium which is just 26%. Five teams had an average attendance of less than 40% capacity and 9 had an average attendance of less than 50% of capacity.

The next category is last years straight up win/loss record for each team at home. There were 15 teams last year that finished with an undefeated record at home while there were 2 teams last year that were actually winless at home. Those 2 teams were Eastern Michigan and North Texas.

The fifth category is the last 3 years straight up records at home. Oklahoma, Boise St and TCU are all undefeated at home in that span while Alabama, Troy and Utah all have just one loss. At the bottom of the scale is Western Kentucky and North Texas who have won just 1 home games in the last 3 years. Once again this is on a 0-6 point basis.

The next category is the last 5 years records at home. Boise St and Oklahoma come in #1 here at a perfect 32-0 and 31-0 game at home respectively. TCU is next up with just 2 losses. North Texas and Eastern Michigan are at the bottom over 5 years with NT at 5-22 and EMU 5-19.

Sometimes teams compile great home records because they play a bunch of cupcakes. Sometimes teams compile a weak record because they play a large amount of ranked teams. The easiest way to determine if a team played above or below expectations is to look at their records against the Las Vegas spread. If a team was favored to win by 30 that means the opponent was weak and a 3 point win is unimpressive vs that caliber of opponent. I weigh each of the different factors and the actual home win record is given twice the weight of the ATS record. I used the records for last year, the last 3 years and the last 5 years. The best record over the last 5 years is CMU at 16-6 with Oklahoma #2 at 21-8 and TCU #3 at 20-8. At the bottom are Army at 6-18, and Fresno 7-20.

I then factor in the 9 categories from the 2009 and 2008 seasons which gives me 27 categories for the computer to factor in and I have them appropriately weighted. I then look at the computer’s grade which had Oklahoma #1 with a 5.65 home edge. Ohio St #2 at 5.59 and Oregon #3 at 5.23. At the bottom the computer has Eastern Michigan #120 at 1.19, North Texas #119 at 1.36 and WKU #118 at 1.54.

The final category is my own personal grade. I have 12 TV’s in front of me and watch 12 games all day long on Saturday and watch every nighttime game on ESPN. I can hear the crowd noise at each stadium and I weigh in how many times I thought it was a factor in a game. I look at how good the team has been the last 5 years and what percentage of games they win at home and on the road in my personal evaluation.

After that evaluation, I gave three teams a 6-point home edge in this year’s magazine in Oklahoma, Boise St and Oregon. Virginia Tech and Ohio St hav a 5.75 grade while Florida, Penn St, TCU, Wisconsin and Alabama all earned 5.25 grades from me. At the bottom of the scale I gave a 1.5 point home edge to Eastern Michigan with WKU, New Mexico St and Tulane all earning 2s.

Here are all my 2011 Homefield edges for all 120 Teams.

Phil Steele’s 2011 Homefield Edges
(higher number the better)

Only 35 Days Until the First College Football Game!!!

Do you think it is easy picking a National Champ prior to the year? Since 1994, only 3 times has the preseason #1 team gone on to win the National Title. In 2008, Georgia was the preseason #1 team but I had FLORIDA to win the title and the Gators delivered for me!! Athlon was the only other source to have Florida #1. In 2007 NO Magazine had LSU or Ohio St #1 (USC was the consensus #1). In 2006, National Champ Florida was not picked #1 by ANY magazine and they were picked anywhere from #4 down to #20. They were #7 in the preseason AP Poll and #8 in the Coaches’ Poll. In 2005 everyone had USC again and no one had the actual Champ, Texas. Only in 1999 (everyone with Florida St), 2001 (two magazines) and 2004 (everyone with USC) did any of the Big 9 preseason magazines correctly pick the National Champ.

In 2002, it was yet another Surprise Team taking home the National Title. Ohio St was not even ranked in the preseason Top 10. In fact, only three magazines even picked them to win the Big Ten, let alone contend for a National Title. I am pleased to report I had OSU at #7, which was higher than any other publication and when the smoke cleared, they had beaten Miami, FL in the Fiesta Bowl and took home the National Title.

In 2003, there was another surprise champ and that was LSU. If you read my 2003 College Football Preview, you know I had LSU pegged as my #2 Surprise Team in the country saying they had a great shot at going undefeated and attaining the National Title. At the start of the year, not only did 8 of the Big 9 magazines NOT have LSU as a National Title contender, but NONE had LSU even winning the SEC WEST DIVISION. That year LSU simply won the SEC outright and shared the National Title!! The other half of the National Title went to USC who I had listed as my #5 Surprise Team despite the fact they had to replace their Heisman Trophy winning QB Carson Palmer.

In ’04 almost everyone including myself pegged USC and Oklahoma to play in the Orange Bowl game so there was no Surprise Team in the title game BUT Auburn made no major publication’s Top 10 and almost got to the big game with its unbeaten season. I had Auburn listed as my #7 Surprise Team in ’04.

In ’05 the #1 and #2 preseason teams met in the title game so there was no Surprise Team. Penn St was not ranked in the preseason and finished #3 in the final polls after having a losing season in ’04. While they did not make my Surprise List, they were my #3 Most Improved Team.

The 2006 season was a VERY GOOD year for my Surprise Teams and almost a GREAT YEAR! I say almost a GREAT year because my #1 Surprise Team was Louisville and they came within inches of playing for the National Title. When I wrote the magazine I had expected the “Derby City Duo” of RB Michael Bush and QB Brian Brohm to be one of the top QB/RB combos in the country. Bush was lost in the 3Q of the opening game and Brohm was injured a few games later. Brohm was only a few games back from injury when the #3 Cards blew a 25-7 3Q lead and lost to Rutgers on a FG on the last play (which was a 2nd chance FG after the first one was missed but the Cardinals were penalized for being offsides). Had they held on and won they would have been #2 in the BCS poll and we would have had a pair of unbeatens meet for the title. As we saw, the Buckeyes were greatly affected by their 51 day layoff and were a vulnerable team. Louisville could have been the fourth team in FIVE YEARS to merit National Championship consideration that was one of my Top 10 Surprise Teams. That is a pretty good record considering I do not pick any of the projected preseason Top 10 teams.

In 2007, I had Ohio St listed as my #4 Surprise Team and they entered the season #11 but played in the National Title game. I had USF (unranked preseason) as my #5 Surprise Team and they climbed as high as #2 in the polls. I had Georgia (#13 AP) as my #6 Surprise Team and they finished #2 and almost played in the title game. I had Oregon my #10 Surprise Team and they were #2 when QB Dennis Dixon was injured. Had Dixon not been injured, they likely would have been in the title game. I had Missouri my #9 Surprise Team and despite being UNRANKED in the AP preseason poll, they were #1 when they faced Oklahoma in the Big 12 Title game and finished #4! I also had Hawaii going unbeaten in the regular season and playing in the Sugar Bowl which is exactly what happened!

In 2008, I had Texas Tech my #3 Surprise Team and they got to 10-0 (#2) and came very close (3-way B12 South Division tie) to playing for the Big 12 Championship and possibly the National Title game. Penn St opened the year #22 in the AP poll but was my #5 Surprise team and had they not given away a 9 point 4Q lead vs Iowa they would have been in the title game.

In 2009, the title game was Texas vs Alabama (both top 5 prior to year) so there were no surprise teams.

Last year I had AUBURN my #5 surprise team and despite entering the year #22 in the AP poll they ran the table and won the national title!

So, what have we learned from all this information? Clearly, every year there has been an unexpected Top 10 team and some years there are big surprises like Oklahoma, Ohio St, LSU and Auburn who all took home the title after a 5-loss season (Auburn also had 5 losses in 2003 before going unbeaten in 2004). Now comes the question, “Who will be this year’s Surprise Team?”

The last couple of February’s on PhilSteele.com, I have posted my projected AP Top 10 for the upcoming year. I have hit 9 of 10 the last two years. The last 2 years ESPN has produced its preseason Top 25 and it comes out in April. Here is my expected list of the teams that will likely be ranked in this year’s preseason AP Top 10 and I put them in order of how they will likely be ranked: Oklahoma, Alabama, Oregon, LSU, Stanford, Boise St, Oklahoma St, Florida St, South Carolina and Ohio St. It’s likely these 10 teams will make up the Top 10 this year, so I will NOT use any of them. Now let’s take a look at this year’s potential surprise teams.

This year my #1 Surprise Team is the Virginia Tech Hokies! The ESPN April ranking has them at #19 but if you are looking for this year’s Auburn it is Virginia Tech. They have two striking similarities to 2010 Auburn. The first is a QB that is 6’6″ 245 lbs, is mobile and is a first year starter. Auburn had Cam Newton and VT has Logan Thomas. I am not projecting a similar season, but coach Beamer is very high on him. While he wont match Newton’s numbers, VT’s ’11 defense is superior to Auburns ’10 D which allowed 24.1 ppg. Now lets look at the schedule. A big reason Auburn made my surprise list LY was that they had very winnable road games and all the tough games at home (with the exception of Alabama). VT’s road schedule is EC, Marshall, WF, Duke, GT and Virginia. They get Clemson, Miami, BC and NC at home. They have 0 top ten teams on the schedule and have one of the nation’s best head coaches. The ACC title game may be their toughest test of the year. I have them going 12-0 and getting there.

Since they won their last national title in 1988, my #2 Surprise Team the Notre Dame Fighting Irish have been the nation’s biggest underachiever. Only four times in the last 21 years have they actually finished higher than their preseason ranking and 10 times finished unranked in that span many times after opening ranked. They do have a couple of Surprise team factors going for them. First of all 2nd year coaches have been pulling down some titles as of late. A first year HC has to learn the players strengths and weaknesses and the team must learn his new systems. Year two everyone is up to speed. In 2000 Bob Stoops was in his 2nd year shockingly winning the title. 2002 was Jim Tressel’s 2nd year at Ohio St and he was the surprise national title winner! Urban Meyer in his 2nd year at Florida took home a national title in 2006. Last year Gene Chizik (2nd year) took home the title after going 8-5 his first year at Auburn. Third yr HC’s have won 4 in that span ’09-Saban Alabama, ’07-Miles LSU, ’03-Carroll USC, ’97-Carr Michigan. Brian Kelly took a moderately talented Cincy team to 12-0 and a Sugar Bowl berth in ’09. ND won their last 4 last year and this year have 17 returning starters, are in the 2nd year of his systems and they have only 5 true road games (Mich, Pitt, Purdue, WF and Stanford). The only Top 10 team on their schedule is Stanford and ND could be favored in their first 11. All 9 of my sets of power ratings call for DD wins and Kelly had finished above my projection for 6 straight years until breaking that streak in 2010. Remember four Nat’l Champs the last 12 years have been off 5 loss seasons.

Mark Richt does well when expectations are low and my #3 Surprise team the Georgia Bulldogs don’t even figure to be in the preseason top 25 this year! Now I will note that last year I had them in this same spot and they finished an ugly 6-7 with a poor bowl loss to a CUSA team. The Dogs do lose AJ Green (#1 DC) and 3 of their top 4 tacklers but clearly underachieved in ’10 and have had some great recruiting classes the last couple of years with numerous impact players (some JC’s) in this years class. The road slate is manageable with Ole Miss, Tennessee, Vandy and GT all finishing with losing records LY. They have two tough neutral site games but get a bye before Florida and Boise is in Atlanta, not exactly a neutral site. They avoid Alabama, LSU and Arkansas out of the West and get South Carolina at home. Their QB Aaron Murray showed good poise as a rFr and now has experience.

My #4 Surprise Team is the Texas A&M Aggies. Last year they were coming off of 4-8 and 6-7 seasons. TO’s did them in at Okla St as they had a 535-351 yard edge and the ball at midfield at the end but another int turned that into a loss. They switched QB’s and Tannehill cut down on the TO’s and they went 6-1 down the stretch. This year they have one of the most exp’d teams in the country with 18 returning starters one year after ret 16 in ’10. They have just 4 true AG’s this year with Oklahoma the only ranked team among them. Remember Auburn had to go thru Alabama LY on their way to the National Title and the Aggies did beat OU last season. They get Okla St and Texas at home and Arkansas at a neutral site. RB Gray and WR Fuller are one of the best combos in the country and their ppg on defense has gone from 37.4 in ’08, 33.5 in ’09 to 21.9 last year and this years veteran unit may earn the “Wrecking Crew” nickname.

Top Non-AQ Team for 2011

In 2006, my top non-AQ team was Boise St and I PROJECTED THEM INTO A BCS BOWL and they went undefeated and got to the Fiesta Bowl where they beat Oklahoma. In 2007, I called for Hawaii to go 12-0 and grab a SUGAR BOWL BERTH and that is exactly what they did! In 2008 my top non-AQ team was Utah and while they were NOT RANKED in the preseason and no one picked them to even win the MWC at the start of the year except me, they finished unbeaten and #2 in the country! In 2009 my Top non-AQ team was Boise St and when they beat TCU in the Fiesta Bowl they finished #4 and the top non-AQ team in the country. Last year it was FIVE in a row. EVERYONE had Boise St as their top non AQ team but I went against the grain and picked TCU and coach Patterson and company did not disappoint as they knocked off Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl and finished #2 in the country, naturally the top rated non AQ team out there (Boise #9!)

That means in the 5 years I have posted my Top non-AQ team ALL FIVE have gone to BCS bowls and ALL FIVE have finished as the best non-AQ team! This year I’m going for SIX IN A ROW, my call is for the Boise St Broncos to go unbeaten and be the top non-AQ team in the country this year!

If you want my complete list of 2011 Surprise Teams (12) and Top Non-AQ Teams (6) make sure you check out pages 20-22 of this year’s magazine!

Only 63 DAYS LEFT UNTIL THE FIRST COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME!!!

Over the weekend I released my projected preseason AP Top 10 and I thought I would analyze another set of rankings for the upcoming season. A couple of weeks ago, several casinos released their odds for the 2011-12 BCS National Championship. While PhilSteele.com does not affiliate itself with gambling, I do think it is interesting to see how Vegas is examining the upcoming season.

Here are the Top 10 Favorites to win the title this upcoming year courtesy of Bodog.com.

1. Oklahoma             Odds: 7/2

If you checked out my projected AP Top 10 blog, you would have read that the Sooners are clearly the favorite going into next season and the odds certainly agree here. They return 15 starters on off/def including QB Jones, WR Broyles and LB Lewis. Their schedule sets up nicely with a bye before their road trip to Florida St (a team they dominated LY 47-17). In Big 12 play naturally there is the Red River Rivalry game vs Texas who is coming off a 5-7 season and the only other huge hurdle could be the season finale at Oklahoma St but the Sooners have won the Bedlam rivalry 8 straight times and have an overall mark of 82-16-7 vs their in-state rivals.

2. Alabama             Odds: 15/2

The Crimson Tide were my projected AP #2 team for 2011. Despite the losses of QB McElroy, RB Ingram and WR Jones and DT/DE Dareus, the Tide return 15 starters including 9 from a defense that figures to be among the best in the country. While they do have road trips to Penn St, Florida and Auburn none of those teams figure to be in the preseason top 10 so they have a great opportunity of being favored in every game this season.

3. Florida St             Odds: 10/1

The Noles return 16 starters, bring in one of the best frosh classes in the country and should be the ACC favorites. However, their schedule is not soft by any means as they host pre-season favorite Oklahoma and travel to Florida in non-conf play and have to play ACC Atlantic foes Clemson and Boston College on the road.

4. Boise St             Odds: 12/1

The Broncos return 14 starters including QB Moore. While they do move to the MWC and open the season vs Georgia in Atlanta, the Broncos get defending MWC champ TCU at home (where they have not lost a reg ssn gm since 2001) also get defending CUSA champ Tulsa at home and will probably be favored to win 11 of their 12 games.

4. LSU              Odds: 12/1

The Tigers return 15 starters from a team that surprised many going 11-2 last year. While they open the season with a huge showdown vs Oregon in Arlington, the Tigers will probably be favored to win the rest of the games with the exception of a road trip to Alabama later in the season. Road trips to Mississippi St and West Virginia in September will be tricky as well.

6. Oregon            Odds: 14/1

This year the Ducks return just 11 starters on off/def but get QB Thomas and Doak Walker winner RB James back from a offense that avg’d 47 ppg. UO does have a monster non-conf game vs LSU in the opener and have road trips to Arizona, Washington and Stanford but still will be the preseason favorite to win the Pac-10 for a third straight season.

7. Florida            Odds: 15/1

This one is a bit of a surprise since the Gators are coming off just an 8-5 season and have a new HC in Will Muschamp. UF does return 13 starters and have a lot of talent on hand thanks to some outstanding recruiting. However, rheir three-game stretch to start off October is as challenging as team will face during any stretch. (Bama, at LSU, at Auburn).

8. Nebraska      Odds: 18/1

It will be an interesting year for the Huskers as they move to the Big 10. They do return just 12 starters from last year’s team that again came up just short of the Big 12 title. One of the starters back is QB Martinez. As far as their schedule goes, the conference did them no favors with road games at Wisconsin, Penn St and Michigan along with home games vs Ohio St and Michigan.

9.  Penn St            Odds: 20/1

Another interesting pick here as the Nittany Lions are coming off just a 7-6 season. They do return 15 starters and their QB situation should be in much better shape this year. Home games vs Alabama and Iowa are their biggest tests before a 3 game stretch to close the season vs Nebraska, at Ohio St and at Wisconsin.

10. TCU            Odds: 20/1

The Horned Frogs are here naturally because of their great success over the past several seasons but they do return just 8 starters on off/def and lose their leader in QB Andy Dalton. Their schedule is not yet finalized as they are missing a couple of non-conf games but their biggest test looks to be a road game at Boise.

Here are some other odds:

Well here it is, my projected AP Top 10 for next year as of February 11, 2011! I will mention it now and I will mention it numerous times throughout today’s blog but this is not MY preseason Top 10 for next year, it is where I project the AP Top 10 to come out at the start of the season.

Most AP voters usually look at a couple of criteria when they evaluate a team for the upcoming season. First they look at the number of returning starters that the team has coming back particularly at the offensive skill positions. A team that returns its starting QB and a combination of its RB and WRs is often times more highly thought of than a team that loses its starting QB but returns its entire offensive line. Similarly a team that returns most of its starters on offense but loses a lot of its defensive playmakers usually is more highly thought of than a team that returns a majority of its defensive starters but loses its skill position players on offense.

Another factor that is heavily weighted is the performance of the team in the bowl game, which undoubtedly is the lasting image of that team in the offseason. A team coming off a huge bowl win usually is more highly thought of than a team that is coming off a bowl loss regardless of what their schedule looks like for the upcoming season.

Using these criteria and a few more, I project the preseason AP Top 10 every year at the conclusion of the previous season, which in most cases is nearly 6 months in advance. Now as you all know, a lot can happen from January to August including injuries, suspensions, transfers, etc.

In 2009, my projected Top 10 for the AP Poll was #1 Florida, #2 Texas, #3 USC, #4 Oklahoma, #5 Alabama, #6 Virginia Tech, #7 LSU, #8 Oklahoma St, #9 Ohio St and #10 Mississippi. The actual AP Top 10 was #1 Florida, #2 Texas, #3 Oklahoma, #4 USC, #5 Alabama, #6 Ohio St, #7 Virginia Tech, #8 Mississippi and #9 was a tie between Oklahoma St/Penn St.

I nailed nine of the ten teams that appeared in the Preseason Top 10 with the only exception being LSU/Penn St and I may have had something to do with that. It’s interesting to note that of the main preseason magazines, only two had Penn St ranked in the Top 10 and I had them my #1 surprise team and ranked #5. Most had Penn St out of the Top 10. Perhaps since I had them rated so high in my magazine, it influenced a few voters across the country, bumping them into the Top 10.

Last year I projected the preseason AP Top 10 would be #1 Alabama, #2 Ohio St, #3 Boise St, #4 Oregon, #5 Texas, #6 TCU, #7 Iowa, #8 Florida, #9 Nebraska and #10 Virginia Tech.

The actual AP Top 10 was #1 Alabama, #2 Ohio St, #3 Boise St, #4 Florida, #5 Texas, #6 TCU, #7 Oklahoma, #8 Nebraska, #9 Iowa and #10 Virginia Tech.

For the second year in a row I nailed nine of the ten teams that appeared in the Preseason Top 10 with the only exception being Oregon/Oklahoma, which I can defend easily.

First, at the time I wrote my projection back in early February Duck QB Jeremiah Masoli was not yet suspended. With Masoli still in the fold at that point Oregon had 17 returning starters including RB LaMichael James and Masoli in the backfield. The Ducks clearly would have been a preseason Top 10 team and probably Top 5 had Masoli not been kicked off the team. Even without Masoli Oregon was still rated #11 in the preseason poll.

The team that I did not have in my projected AP Top 10 was Oklahoma (#7) and if you have purchased last year’s magazine or listed to one of my radio shows across the country you know I thought very highly of the Sooners as I had them ranked #1. Like Penn St last year perhaps since I had them rated so high in my magazine, it influenced a few voters across the country, bumping them into the Top 10 despite the Sooners having five losses in 2009 and the fact that they did not even finish in the final AP Top 25.

I also am pleased that six of the 10 teams were ranked in the exact position that I projected including the top 3 in Alabama, Ohio St and Boise St. I also had Texas, TCU and Virginia Tech ranked in their exact positions in the poll.
Now let’s take a look at this year’s projected Preseason AP Top 10:

#10 SOUTH CAROLINA-Last year the Gamecocks returned 16 starters (#2 SEC) and had only 11 lettermen lost. They also signed one of the best frosh classes ever which included my PS#1 RB Marcus Lattimore. In my magazine I said that SC was a legit SEC contender and they even made my list of Surprise Teams (darkhorse national title contender).  They didn’t disappoint beating #1 defending champ Alabama at home and getting a key win on the road vs Florida as SC made their first appearance in the SEC Champ game. They did finish the season with consecutive losses but this year return 7 starters on offense including QB Garcia and RB Lattimore and figure to be the favorites to repeat as SEC East Division champs.

#9 OKLAHOMA ST-Last year the Cowboys were one of the least experienced teams in the entire country coming into the season with just 8 returning starters. However, HC Gundy did an outstanding job leading them to their most wins in a season in school history and this year despite the loss of OC Holgorsen and RB Hunter, the Cowboys return 9 starters including QB Weeden and Biletnikoff winner Blackmon from an offense that avg’d 44 ppg. The Cowboys do have tough road games at Texas A&M, Texas, Texas Tech and Missouri and that is why they will not be ranked even higher in the preseason AP Poll.
#8 FLORIDA ST-HC Fisher inherited a good situation last year as they were loaded on offense with 9 returning starters and they got most of their toughest ACC foes at home. 7 of my 9 sets of power ratings called for their first double digit win season since 2003 and they did just that beating in-state rival Florida, getting to the ACC champ game and then beating South Carolina in the bowl game. This year they return 16 starters, bring in one of the best frosh classes in the country and should be the ACC favorites.

#7 BOISE ST-Last year the Broncos were one of the most experienced teams in the country with 20 returning starters and started out #3 in the AP Poll. A win over Virginia Tech in the opener had them thinking national title but a heartbreaking loss to Nevada in OT late in the year cost them a BCS Bid. Nonetheless they still won 12+ games for the third year in a row and this year return 14 starters including QB Moore. While they do move to the MWC and open the season vs Georgia in Atlanta, the Broncos get defending MWC champ TCU at home (where they have not lost a reg ssn gm since 2001) and will probably be favored to win 11 of their 12 games.

#6 TEXAS A&M-Last year I thought the Aggies were a much stronger team than their previous seasons and they made my Most Improved List. After struggling to a 3-3 start HC Sherman made the bold move to bench QB Johnson for backup Tannehill and the Aggies preceded to roll off 6 straight wins including wins over Big 12 powers Oklahoma, Nebraska and Texas en route to only their second 9 win season since 2000. This year they bring back 17 starters on off/def including Tannehill and get Oklahoma St, Missouri and Texas at home.

#5 STANFORD-Last year 3 of my 9 sets of power ratings called for an 11-1 season and after my magazine was published in May, the Cardinal were one of the teams that I thought probably should have been higher in my ratings in my mag come late August. Led by QB Luck, the Cardinal simply went out and had one of their best seasons in school history finishing 12-1 with a dominating win over Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl. This year the Cardinal lose HC Harbaugh to the 49ers but will still be a AP top 5 pick because Luck surprisingly decided to come back for another year and he is probably not only one of the Heisman favorites but also the top NFL prospect in college this year.

#4 LSU-Last year the Tigers returned just 10 starters but surprised many finishing the season 11-2 with a dominating win over Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl. This year they return 8 starters from an offense that avg’d 30 ppg including QB Jefferson who improved his play down the stretch. While they open the season with a huge showdown vs Oregon in Arlington, the Tigers will probably be favored to win the rest of the games with the exception of a road trip to Alabama later in the season.

#3 OREGON-Last year 8 of my 9 sets of power ratings called the Ducks the best team in the Pac-10 and they didn’t disappoint running through their regular season a perfect 12-0 before losing a heartbreaker in the national title game to Auburn. This year the Ducks return just 11 starters on off/def but get QB Thomas and Doak Walker winner RB James back from a offense that avg’d 47 ppg. UO does have a monster non-conf game vs LSU in the opener and have road trips to Arizona, Washington and Stanford but still will be the preseason favorite to win the Pac-10 for a third straight season.

#2 ALABAMA-Last year the Crimson Tide were coming off B2B 12-0 regular seasons and anything less than a repeat national title was going to be a disappointment. While the Tide did finish just 10-3, when they were playing their “A” game as evidence of the 1H of the Auburn game and the Capital One bowl vs 11-1 Michigan St, they were clearly one of the best teams in the country. This year despite the losses of QB McElroy, RB Ingram and WR Jones, the Tide return 15 starters including 9 from a defense that figures to be among the best in the country. While they do have road trips to Penn St, Florida and Auburn none of those teams figure to be in the preseason top 10 so they have a great opportunity of being favored in every game this season.

#1 OKLAHOMA-Last year I surprised many by ranking the Sooners as my #1 team in my pre-season magazine despite coming off a 5-loss season in 2009. While they did not win the national title, the Sooners did go 12-2 winning the Big 12 title and dominated UConn in the Fiesta Bowl. This year OU will be ranked #1 in the pre-season by nearly everyone as they return 15 starters on off/def including QB Jones, WR Broyles and LB Lewis. Their schedule sets up nicely with a bye before their road trip to Florida St (a team they dominated LY 47-17). In Big 12 play naturally there is the Red River Rivalry game vs Texas who is coming off a 5-7 season and the only other huge hurdle could be the season finale at Oklahoma St but the Sooners have won the Bedlam rivalry 8 straight times and have an overall mark of 82-16-7 vs their in-state rivals. With their key returning starters back and a favorable schedule, the Sooners should get the nod as the Preseason AP #1 team!

THOSE THAT JUST MISSED OUT:

I mentioned at the start of the blog that last year I had nine of the top 10 teams correctly predicted and it was the same case in 2009 where I also missed out by 1. If one of the team’s I have projected in the Top 10 doesn’t make the polls, there are 4 teams that have a shot at jumping into the Top 10.

Right now, I would project Ohio State to be #11 heading into the season and the only reason they are this low is the fact that several of their key players including QB Pryor and their top RB and WR will miss the first 5 games. Also their first game back is a road trip to Nebraska but I still feel with their strong finish to the 2010 season and the fact that they have won or shared 6 straight Big 10 titles will get them the nod over the Cornhuskers.

At #12 in the AP poll should be Nebraska who returns QB Martinez and 7 starters on defense. Nebraska would have been higher but there has been some turmoil already this past off-season and they were unimpressive in their bowl game.

The rest of the teams are #13 Arkansas and #14 Wisconsin.

There you have it – My projections for the AP Preseason Top 10. As mentioned a couple of times in this article, these WILL NOT BE THE TOP 10 IN MY MAGAZINE. As you know, I tend to go out on a limb in a lot of cases and have a lot of surprise picks in my magazine. Those will be unveiled at the start of June when my magazine hits the newsstands but when the first AP poll comes out in August this year, go ahead and take this list and compare it and you’ll find that probably 9 or maybe even all 10 will be in the Preseason AP Top 10 this year.

The Bowl confidence contest is under way and Congratulations to the top four players who all have perfect scores thru the first three games with a perfect 102 pts. However many times the players that rank in the top early are those that wagered the most pts and if you are not on the top leaderboard right now, naturally you still have plenty of opportunities to rise up/fall down the standings in the coming weeks.

Last year we expanded the contest to nearly 1200 contestants, which was double from any other previous season and this year we more than doubled the number of contestants with nearly 3000 entries!

So far thru 3 games a lot of people already have one loss as 64.5% of you picked Fresno St and they were beaten by Northern Illinois. Also only 56.6% of you had Troy winning so the remaining 43.4% of you who picked Ohio in the New Orleans bowl also lost. Most of you (92%) had BYU winning and that came as no surprise as they rolled over UTEP. Here are the top 10 picksheets so far after the first 3 bowl games.

Top 10 Overall Standings

Last year we had four different radio stations participate with their own groups and this year we expanded to a dozen different groups.

Here are the total number of contestants for the major groups and the current leaders.

WKNR Cleveland, Ohio w/Michael Reghi
(236 Contestants)

WVSP Virginia Beach, Virginia w/Tony Mercurio
(202 Contestants)

STO Cleveland, Ohio w/Bruce Drennan
(172 Contestants)

Erik Kuselias (114 Contestants)

KMBE Houston, Texas w/Charlie Pallilo
(94 Contestants)

WDFN Detroit, Michigan w/Sean Baligian
(53 Contestants)

For complete overall standings or each individual group click here.

Another new feature this year is the pick statistics for each game. I find this interesting to see the percentages of who you think will win each game and how many confidence points on average were selected for each team.

Here are all the bowl games ranked in order on the percentages of each game with your picks in bold.

Pick Percentages

To no surprise Oklahoma takes the top spot as 97.3% of you picked the Sooners to beat Connecticut in the Fiesta Bowl. Also high on the list was Boise St 96.2% and in a rematch from earlier this year 95.8% of you picked Nebraska to beat Washington for a second time this season. It was interesting to see that 65.2% of you picked Wisconsin to upset TCU in the Rose Bowl and down at the bottom was Notre Dame with only 52.7% of you predicting the Irish to upset Miami in the Sun Bowl.

Another way to look at how you voted is to see the average number of confidence pts wagered on each game. These points totals should be close to the overall % but that will not always be the case as many of you could have picked Miami, Ohio by a large confidence pts while others of you could have picked Middle Tennessee by that same confidence total. Here are the top Confidence pt averages with the % rank in the left.

Confidence Points Avg.

Just like the percentages, the Fiesta Bowl saw most of you wagering the highest confident point total and again most of you picked Oklahoma to win. The Holiday Bowl came in 2nd this time with 27.3 confidence pts with most of you picking Nebraska but there were a couple of interesting notes. Despite being just #9 in the percentage rank the Capital One Bowl saw an average of 23.5 pts which was the 4th highest. Also the Sun Bowl had an average of 14.4 pts, which was higher than 8 other bowls. This means that while only 52.7% picked Notre Dame, you picked the Irish with a higher point total and the 47.3% of you who picked Miami, Fl also picked the Hurricanes with a high point total.

Here are the four candidates for the 2010 Heisman Trophy. Today, I will give you the PROS and CONS for each winning the Award this year but let me first say that this should be one of the largest landslides in the history of the award and unlike last year the race is for 2nd place this year. The Award comes out on Saturday but here are my projections of the order of finish for this year’s top 4 that have been invited to New York.

PROJECTED WINNER

Cam Newton, Auburn.

PROS.

1. Newton leads the NCAA in pass efficiency avg 200 pass ypg completing 67% of his passes with a 28-6 ratio. A lot of people have made a big deal about Boise St’s QB Moore pass efficiency this year but after Newton’s outstanding performance in the SEC Championship game, Newton actually passed him for the top spot.
2. Newton has rushed for 1,409 yds (5.8) with 20 TD’s, which is not far off of Oregon St’s RB James numbers. Newton also did it against many tough SEC defenses and became the first player in SEC history to pass for more than 2,000 yds and rush for 1,000 yds in a season and actually led the SEC in rushing this year.
3. Newton saved some of his best performances for the biggest games. Last week in the SEC championship game he accounted for 6 total TD’s in the largest blowout in SEC Championship game history. Two weeks ago in maybe the biggest game of the regular season he led a 24-0 comeback against arch-rival Alabama on the road which was the largest comeback margin ever against an Alabama team in their storied history.

CONS.

1. The only con for Newton is the off-the-field issues which may hurt him with some voters who take the integrity of the player into account when voting despite the fact that the NCAA has ruled him eligible and said he did nothing wrong. I have heard that up to 10% of the voters may not vote for him for this reason.
   

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PROJECTED #2

Andrew Luck, Stanford

PROS.

1. Luck is avg 254 pass ypg with a 70% comp rate and a 28-7 ratio. He also put up some surprising rush stats with 438 rush yds and a very impressive 8.6 ypc (better ypc than James) and has a couple of 50+ yd runs this season!
2. Coming into the year Luck was playing without LY’s Heisman runner-up RB Gerhart and was the glue that held the entire offense together early as the young skill position players developed.
3. If a voter was looking at a proto-typical QB at the next level that has all the intangibles of a future NFL star, there may be no prospect better in all of college football than Luck and he led his team to an 11-1 record which is the best in school history.

CONS.

1. Came up short in the Oregon game especially in the 2H with a couple of interceptions which will hurt him with voters who favor Oregon RB James who ran for 257 yds and 3 TD’s in that contest with the Ducks winning by 3 TD’s. Also plays in the West with 3 of the other finalists, which will split the vote.

PROJECTED #3

LaMichael James, Oregon

PROS.

1. Led the nation in rushing with 1,682 yds (6.0) and 21 TD’s and last year Stanford RB Gerhart in the same situation finished 2nd in the race.
2. Had two of his best performances this season in national spotlight games against Stanford and USC. Against the Cardinal he ran for 257 yds and 3 TD’s and ran for 238 rush yds and 3 TD’s against USC.
3. The three QB’s may split some of the votes and James is playing on a undefeated team that will play for the national title.

CONS.

1. James was suspended for one game this season for an off-the field incident. He also plays in a offense that is beneficial to the RB’s and the back-ups had better ypc’s and did not seem to miss a beat when James was not in the lineup.
   

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PROJECTED #4

Kellen Moore, Boise St

PROS.

1. Is a great leader on and off the field and has had three spectacular seasons in a row leading the Broncos to a 37-2 record.
2. May garner some sympathy votes from voters who are against the off-the-field incidents of Newton and will place Moore higher on the ballot because of his “underdog” status.
3. Completed 71% of his passes avg 292 pass ypg with a 33-5 ratio, which was good enough for #2 in pass efficiency in the NCAA.

CONS.

Plays for a non-AQ team that lost a national spotlight game. Also many will question the type of competition he faced on a week-to-week basis and he will probably have another opportunity to win the Heisman next year as a Senior.