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MWC Team of the Decade…

Phil Steele — Fri, 02 Jul 2010 17:10:32 +0000

For the next two weeks, I will be taking a look at the conference teams of the decade for 2000-2009. Factored into my analysis will be conference win %, conference and division titles, bowl games and bowl wins. I will also include BCS bowl wins, final AP rankings and number of national championships for the major conferences. There have been several teams who have changed conferences during that time and I will include them in the analysis for any season(s) they were affiliated with that certain conference. I will also be doing a breakdown of how the conference did in bowl games during the decade and I will emphasis the overall win/loss record, the number of BCS bowl wins, and the records against Non-BCS and ranked bowl teams.

While some conferences may have no-brainers as the top team, other conferences were very competitive over the past decade. Here is the schedule for the upcoming week with the conferences I will be analyzing on each date.

Monday Sun Belt
Tuesday MAC
Wednesday WAC
Yesterday CUSA
Today MWC
Saturday Big East
Monday, July 5th Pac-10
Tuesday, July 6th ACC
Wednesday, July 7th Big 12
Thursday, July 8th Big 10
Friday, July 9th SEC

The MWC has been the best non-BCS conference the last few years and the Big 3 (TCU, BYU, and Utah) are all BCS caliber teams. In 2000, the MWC had eight teams and then added TCU in 2005 to get them to nine. Next year the conference adds WAC Power Boise St but loses Utah to the Pac-10. Here are my overall rankings for MWC Team of the Decade.

MWC Rankings 2000-2009

Rk	Team	Wins	Losses	Win %	Titles	# of Bowls	Bowl Wins	AP Top 25	AP Top 10	BCS Bowl Wins
1	Utah	51	24	68%	3	8	8	4	2	2
2	TCU	33	7	82.50%	2	5	4	4	2	0
3	BYU	54	21	72%	3	6	3	5	0	0
4	Colorado St	36	39	48%	2	6	3	1	0	0
5	Air Force	40	35	53.30%	0	5	2	0	0	0
6	New Mexico	38	37	50.70%	0	5	1	0	0	0

Utah gets the nod here despite being #3 in overall win %. What put the Utes over the top was their two undefeated seasons in ’04 and ’08 in which they won two BCS bowls and finished in the AP Top 5 each year. Utah also tied BYU with the most titles and made the most bowl games (8). Another impressive feat for the Utes was they won all their bowl games in the past decade including 5 over BCS conference teams! It is kind of ironic though that Utah wins my team of the decade and will be moving on to the Pac-10 next year.

Going into last year, TCU was #3 on my list but thanks to a tremendous season, the Horned Frogs jump to #2. TCU easily has the best win % with 83.7% since joining the conference in ’05. The Frogs have 5 straight bowl appearances winning four of them and has four AP Top 25 finishes the last five years! TCU also has won 3 of 5 against BYU including the last two by a 70-14 margin, which gave them the slight nod over the Cougars.

It is tough putting BYU here at #3 as the Cougars have finished very strong under HC Mendenhall recently. However, BYU did have 5 seasons from 2000-06 with 6 or more losses. While the Cougars are tied with Utah with the most titles (3) and have more conference wins than any other school, they do not have any BCS appearances and Top 10 finishes like TCU and Utah.

Colorado St won a couple of titles early in the decade and get my vote for #4 despite having a losing record overall in conference play thanks in large part to last season’s 0-8 finish. However, their 2 titles trumps any other argument for Air Force and New Mexico. In the last couple of years Air Force has clearly been the #4 team behind the Big 3 but come up at #5 here. Former New Mexico HC Rocky Long did a great job and led the Lobos to five bowl games in the past decade as they get the nod for #6.

Here are the overall bowl records for MWC teams during the course of the decade. Keep in mind for TCU these bowl records are only from their seasons when they were in MWC.

MWC Bowl Records ’00-’09

Team	Overall	vs BCS	vs Non-BCS	vs Ranked	BCS Bowls	Rec as Ranked
BYU	3-3	3-2	0-1	1-1	0-0	3-2
Utah	8-0	5-0	3-0	3-0	2-0	4-0
TCU	4-1	1-0	3-1	1-1	0-1	3-1
Air Force	2-3	0-2	2-1	0-1	0-0	0-0
New Mexico	1-4	0-2	1-2	0-0	0-0	0-0
Colorado St	3-3	0-1	3-2	1-0	0-0	1-1
San Diego St	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
UNLV	1-0	1-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Wyoming	2-0	1-0	1-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Overall	24-14	11-7	13-7	6-3	2-1	11-4

As you can see, the MWC has been very impressive in bowl games with a 24-14 overall mark and a nice 11-7 record against BCS teams. They also have six wins over ranked teams and Utah’s 8-0 overall mark in bowl games was better than any school in the country over the past decade!

I will be back tomorrow with a look at the team of the decade in the Big East. Will another team who has not played in the conference for several years be named team of the decade like the MAC and CUSA? Check it out tomorrow around noon est.

Also please check PhilSteele.com everyday to get my FCS Top 25 Countdown, which continues with #19 Eastern Illinois. Thru July 20th, I will post both magazine pages on a new team ranked in the Top 25 and you can get an early look on how I breakdown your favorite FCS team. Remember those magazine pages are available for only 24 hours for you to download as the next team will be posted the following day.

Only 62 Days Until the First College Football Game!!!

Starts Lost To Injury

Phil Steele — Fri, 18 Jun 2010 16:56:00 +0000

As you can tell by going through the magazine there is very little advertising and there are several pages that are left out due to space constraints. One article I wanted to expand on was starters lost during the year. (see Football 365 Days A Year Pg 17, 314)

Remember when Oklahoma won the National Title in 2000? Not a single OU starter lost a single start due to injury! My research has shown that teams that benefited from very few injuries, in this case 6 or less, usually have a weaker season the next year.

The bottom line is, teams that have suffered a lot of injuries the previous year will generally have a better year the next season. A lot of backups were forced to play during the injury-riddled year, gaining valuable experience and the team figures to not be so injury-prone the next year.

In a study over the last 6 years, my research shows that if a team had 32 or more starts lost to injury the prior season, they improved or had the same record the next year on 48 out of 58 occasions for an 82.8% success rate. How about teams that are really banged up? Well from 2001-2005 12 teams went through seasons of having 40 or more combined starts lost and ALL 12 had the same or better record the next season. It surprises me that 17 teams met that criteria in 2006-’07 but only 7 had a stronger record the next year and 9 had a weaker record.

In 2008, Utah was at the top of the chart with 51 starts lost to injury and they went from 9-4 to 13-0 and #2 in the country! Last year was another solid year as 11 teams had 40 or more starts lost to injury in ‘08 and 8 of the 11 improved their records (72.7%!). Here are the teams that suffered 32 or more starts lost to injury last year:

Rank	Team	#
1	Washington St	67
2	Tennessee	44
3	Vanderbilt	42
3	Oklahoma	42
5	Syracuse	41
6	Oklahoma St	40
7	Colorado St	38
8	Arkansas St	37
9	San Jose St	35
10	E Michigan	34
10	Kentucky	34
12	Hawaii	33
13	Boston College	32

As you can see Washington St led the country with 67 starts lost and it was one of the main reasons the Cougars finished 1-11. Oklahoma played for the National Title in 2008 but last year suffered some major injuries. TE Jermaine Gresham was OFY in August and QB Sam Bradford was injured at the end of the 1H in the opener vs BYU. Bradford was able to return for Baylor game but then was KO’d for the year the following week against Texas. Overall the Sooners lost 42 starts to injury, which was tied for 3rd most in the country and was a major factor in the Sooners going just 8-5 last year. With QB Landry Jones and some of the other backups gaining valuable experience last year I think the Sooners will bounce back in a big way this year and naturally not get hit with the injury bug for the 2nd year in a row.

Colorado St was another team coming off a solid season in 08’ (7-6) and actually started 3-0 last year. However the Rams suffered several injuries and dropped their last nine games of the season. They shockingly became the first MWC team to lose eight conference games and they had zero conference wins for the first time since 1981! Look for 10 or 11 of these teams to rebound this year and improve their record.

Now let’s look at the teams that had great fortune with very few injuries. With teams playing a 12 game schedule, I went for the magic number of 6 lost, figuring that is less than one half of one starter lost to injury during the year. Over the past 6 years only 17 of the 47 teams (36.2%) that had this good fortune managed to improve their record the next year (one did have same record LY)! In 2008, Illinois (2 sts lost) went from the Rose Bowl to a losing season and Purdue (4 sts lost) went from 8-5 to 4-8. Last year Tulsa (5 sts lost 2008) went from 11-3 to 5-7. There were a lot of teams (16) that had this good fortune last year.

Rank	Team	#
1	Oregon St	2
1	Kansas	2
3	Purdue	3
3	Nebraska	3
3	Army	3
6	Rutgers	4
6	New Mexico St	4
6	Idaho	4
6	East Carolina	4
6	Duke	4
11	UNLV	5
11	Clemson	5
13	Wyoming	6
13	Virginia	6
13	Troy	6
13	Temple	6

Oregon St had the fewest starts lost to injury with only 2 all year (tied with Kansas) and had the Beavers won their final game against rival Oregon (lost 37-33) they would have made their first trip to the Rose Bowl since 1965!

Idaho was a team that came out of nowhere last year. After going just 3-21 the previous two years the Vandals went 8-5 last year and had their best season in a decade. One of the key factors to the success of their season was that they only lost four starts to injury.

Idaho was not the only team to have a banner season. Temple suffered only six starts to injury and won a school record nine games in a row last year! Wyoming was supposed to have a rebuilding year under 1st year HC Dave Christensen but ended up going 7-6 and one of the main reasons for their success was that they had only six starts lost to injury.

However the above teams will probably not be as fortunate this year and if the past trends hold up only five or six of them will improve their record this year.

Here is the complete list broken down by total starts lost and also by starts lost on offense and defense which can be indicators of one unit underachieving or overachieving last year.

2009 Starts Lost To Injury

Overall		Total	Starts	Starts	Off	Starts	Def	Sts
Sts Lost		Starts	Lost	Lost %	Starts	Lost	Starts	Lost
Rank	2009	Lost	%	Rank	Lost	%	Lost	%
1	Washington St	67	25.38%	120	40	30.30%	27	20.45%
2	Tennessee	44	15.38%	117	27	18.88%	17	11.89%
3	Vanderbilt	42	15.91%	119	22	16.67%	20	15.15%
3	Oklahoma	42	14.69%	116	36	25.17%	6	4.20%
5	Syracuse	41	15.53%	118	23	17.42%	18	13.64%
6	Oklahoma St	40	13.99%	113	21	14.69%	19	13.29%
7	Colorado St	38	14.39%	115	11	8.33%	27	20.45%
8	Arkansas St	37	14.02%	114	23	17.42%	14	10.61%
9	San Jose St	35	13.26%	112	11	8.33%	24	18.18%
10	E Michigan	34	12.88%	111	15	11.36%	19	14.39%
10	Kentucky	34	11.89%	109	14	9.79%	20	13.99%
12	Hawaii	33	11.54%	107	26	18.18%	7	4.90%
13	Boston College	32	12.12%	110	10	7.58%	22	16.67%
14	Buffalo	31	11.74%	108	23	17.42%	8	6.06%
15	Minnesota	29	10.14%	103	20	13.99%	9	6.29%
15	Alabama	29	9.42%	99	3	1.95%	26	16.88%
15	Navy	29	9.42%	99	13	8.44%	16	10.39%
18	Miami, Oh	28	10.61%	104	15	11.36%	13	9.85%
18	Florida Intl	28	10.61%	104	2	1.52%	26	19.70%
20	Ohio	27	8.77%	97	4	2.60%	23	14.94%
21	Florida St	26	9.85%	101	17	12.88%	9	6.82%
21	South Florida	26	9.85%	101	18	13.64%	8	6.06%
23	Arkansas	25	8.74%	95	8	5.59%	17	11.89%
23	Stanford	25	8.74%	95	7	4.90%	18	12.59%
25	Washington	24	9.09%	98	7	5.30%	17	12.88%
25	Houston	24	7.79%	86	10	6.49%	14	9.09%
27	Ball St	23	8.71%	92	22	16.67%	1	0.76%
27	Akron	23	8.71%	92	16	12.12%	7	5.30%
27	W Kentucky	23	8.71%	92	21	15.91%	2	1.52%
30	Arizona St	22	8.33%	91	9	6.82%	13	9.85%
30	Arizona	22	7.69%	83	16	11.19%	6	4.20%
30	South Carolina	22	7.69%	83	9	6.29%	13	9.09%
30	Oregon	22	7.69%	83	8	5.59%	14	9.79%
34	NC State	21	7.95%	87	9	6.82%	12	9.09%
34	UAB	21	7.95%	87	15	11.36%	6	4.55%
34	Tulsa	21	7.95%	87	10	7.58%	11	8.33%
34	Louisiana	21	7.95%	87	12	9.09%	9	6.82%
34	Georgia Tech	21	7.34%	79	9	6.29%	12	8.39%
34	Air Force	21	7.34%	79	7	4.90%	14	9.79%
40	Louisville	20	7.58%	81	14	10.61%	6	4.55%
40	Maryland	20	7.58%	81	10	7.58%	20	7.58%
40	Ohio St	20	6.99%	71	13	9.09%	7	4.90%
43	Illinois	19	7.20%	72	3	2.27%	16	12.12%
43	Michigan	19	7.20%	72	16	12.12%	3	2.27%
43	Connecticut	19	7.20%	72	6	4.55%	13	9.85%
43	Virginia Tech	19	7.20%	72	14	10.61%	5	3.79%
43	North Carolina	19	7.20%	72	19	14.39%	0	0.00%
43	Florida Atlantic	19	7.20%	72	11	8.33%	8	6.06%
43	San Diego St	19	7.20%	72	17	12.88%	2	1.52%
43	Auburn	19	6.64%	67	2	1.40%	17	11.89%
51	SMU	18	6.82%	68	10	7.58%	8	6.06%
51	Kent St	18	6.82%	68	17	12.88%	1	0.76%
51	Baylor	18	6.82%	68	11	8.33%	7	5.30%
51	USC	18	6.29%	60	12	8.39%	6	4.20%
51	BYU	18	6.29%	60	7	4.90%	11	7.69%
56	Colorado	17	6.44%	62	14	10.61%	3	2.27%
56	S Mississippi	17	6.44%	62	10	7.58%	7	5.30%
56	UTEP	17	6.44%	62	5	3.79%	12	9.09%
56	Memphis	17	6.44%	62	9	6.82%	8	6.06%
56	Utah St	17	6.44%	62	12	9.09%	5	3.79%
56	Iowa	17	5.94%	55	16	11.19%	1	0.70%
56	California	17	5.94%	55	11	7.69%	6	4.20%
56	Middle Tenn	17	5.94%	55	17	11.89%	0	0.00%
64	W Michigan	16	6.06%	58	10	7.58%	6	4.55%
64	North Texas	16	6.06%	58	7	5.30%	9	6.82%
64	N Illinois	16	5.59%	52	8	5.59%	8	5.59%
64	Marshall	16	5.59%	52	12	8.39%	4	2.80%
68	New Mexico	15	5.68%	54	3	2.27%	12	9.09%
68	Northwestern	15	5.24%	47	3	2.10%	12	8.39%
70	Rice	14	5.30%	48	6	4.55%	8	6.06%
70	Tulane	14	5.30%	48	2	1.52%	12	9.09%
70	Wake Forest	14	5.30%	48	8	6.06%	6	4.55%
70	Louisiana Tech	14	5.30%	48	10	7.58%	4	3.03%
70	Iowa St	14	4.90%	42	4	2.80%	10	6.99%
70	UCLA	14	4.90%	42	9	6.29%	5	3.50%
70	Georgia	14	4.90%	42	6	4.20%	8	5.59%
70	Utah	14	4.90%	42	5	3.50%	9	6.29%
78	Notre Dame	13	4.92%	46	13	9.85%	0	0.00%
78	Nevada	13	4.55%	39	11	7.69%	2	1.40%
78	LSU	13	4.55%	39	10	6.99%	3	2.10%
81	UCF	12	4.55%	39	7	5.30%	5	3.79%
81	Wisconsin	12	4.20%	36	8	5.59%	4	2.80%
81	Fresno St	12	4.20%	36	6	4.20%	6	4.20%
81	TCU	12	4.20%	36	2	1.40%	10	6.99%
85	Miami, Fl	11	4.17%	35	3	2.27%	8	6.06%
85	Penn St	11	3.85%	33	5	3.50%	6	4.20%
85	Bowling Green	11	3.85%	33	5	3.50%	6	4.20%
85	Florida	11	3.57%	30	0	0.00%	11	7.14%
89	West Virginia	10	3.79%	31	0	0.00%	10	7.58%
89	Kansas St	10	3.79%	31	8	6.06%	2	1.52%
89	Michigan St	10	3.50%	28	7	4.90%	3	2.10%
89	Mississippi	10	3.50%	28	8	5.59%	2	1.40%
89	Cent Michigan	10	3.25%	24	8	5.19%	2	1.30%
94	Indiana	9	3.41%	25	5	3.79%	4	3.03%
94	Toledo	9	3.41%	25	5	3.79%	4	3.03%
94	Cincinnati	9	3.41%	25	5	3.79%	4	3.03%
94	Missouri	9	3.15%	23	2	1.40%	7	4.90%
98	Texas A&M	8	2.80%	21	6	4.20%	2	1.40%
98	Texas Tech	8	2.80%	21	3	2.10%	5	3.50%
98	Texas	8	2.60%	17	6	3.90%	2	1.30%
98	Boise St	8	2.60%	17	6	3.90%	2	1.30%
102	UL Monroe	7	2.65%	19	5	3.79%	2	1.52%
102	Mississippi St	7	2.65%	19	1	0.76%	6	4.55%
102	Pittsburgh	7	2.45%	16	0	0.00%	7	4.90%
105	Virginia	6	2.27%	15	3	2.27%	3	2.27%
105	Temple	6	2.10%	12	2	1.40%	4	2.80%
105	Troy	6	2.10%	12	3	2.10%	3	2.10%
105	Wyoming	6	2.10%	12	2	1.40%	4	2.80%
109	UNLV	5	1.89%	11	3	2.27%	2	1.52%
109	Clemson	5	1.75%	10	3	2.10%	2	1.40%
111	East Carolina	4	1.52%	8	1	0.65%	3	1.95%
111	Duke	4	1.52%	8	0	0.00%	4	3.03%
111	Rutgers	4	1.52%	8	2	1.52%	2	1.52%
111	New Mexico St	4	1.40%	6	3	2.10%	1	0.70%
111	Idaho	4	1.40%	6	3	2.10%	1	0.70%
116	Purdue	3	1.14%	4	1	0.76%	2	1.52%
116	Army	3	1.14%	4	0	0.00%	3	2.27%
116	Nebraska	3	0.97%	3	3	1.95%	0	0.00%
119	Kansas	2	0.76%	2	2	1.52%	0	0.00%
119	Oregon St	2	0.70%	1	0	0.00%	2	1.40%

PhilSteele.com will have a page updated weekly dedicated to starts lost again this year. We will track each team’s starts lost for the 2010 season so you can see which teams are really banged up and those that have remained very healthy. We even include start charts for each of the teams and also update them weekly!

I will be back tomorrow with a look at the Top Game Performances of 2009!!

Only 76 Days until the First College Football Game!!!