By Phil Steele

Teddy Bridgewater gave a remarkable performance. He was playing with a broken wrist, a sore ankle and looked like he wouldn’t play but trailing 7-0 he came in and finished 20-28-263 and was sacked 3x for 28 yards. He was very mobile but helped Louisville to the win over Rutgers. Two big plays gave RU a 14-3 halftime lead. They got an 85 yd td pass on their first offensive play to Coleman and then after UL got a 20 yd FG with 9:54 left in the 2Q, RU, 2pl later, got a 68 yd td pass to Harrison for their 14-3 lead. In the 1Q UL was SOD at their own 48 but RU was SOD at the UL41. At the half it was 14-3 and UL had a 9-4 FD edge but RU thanks to 2 big plays had a 219-158 yd edge. UL missed a 47 yd FG then drove 90/14pl for a td. RU fmbl’d the KO and UL got a 20 yd td pass on the next play by Bridgewater for the lead, 17-14. Bridgewater was int’d at the RU29 on their next poss with 10:17 left and RU drove 21/7pl for a 38 yd FG to tie. UL got 1 FD and punted with 4:39 left and RU on 3&8 was int’d. After a pen on UL, they started back at the RU40 but got a 30 yd pass and a 29 yd FG with 1:31 left. RU30 got a FD to the 48 but then there was miscommunication and Nova’s deep pass was int’d with no WR around on a diving catch by Floyd at the 18 with 1:06 left and UL got the BCS Bowl berth. Read more…

By Phil Steele

GAMES NOTES:
Akron gave Toledo a game. In fact, leading 3-0 they brought in backup QB Pole on the 3rd series and Pole led them 81/14pl and UA took a 10-0 lead with 14:03 left in the 2Q. The drive began when UT was SOD on 4&2 at their 19. UT went 75/6pl and 85/8pl. Austin Dantin hit a 55 yd td pass to Pasquale and finished 29-35-327 yds. UA answered with an 81/7pl drive for a td with 5:44 left, 17-14. UT punted on their next poss but then took the momentum going 77/5pl for a td with 1:37 left in the half. At the half UT had a 295-257 yd edge. The 3Q opened with 3 punts. UA then went 46/17pl but were SOD on 4&gl from the 16. UT went 51/7pl but was int’d at the UA19 but UT went 62/12pl for a td, 28-17 (9:56) then after an int drove 25/3pl for a td with 8:19 left to go up 18 pts, 35-17. UT fmbl’d a punt with 5:59 left and UA went 45/7pl for a td with 3:30 left but UT rec’d the onside kick, got a FD to the UA36 and took a knee.

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By Phil Steele

Last week the Top 25 Forecasts went 17-4 81% and on the year they are now 197-42 82%! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week which look to bounce back this week.

For projected box scores and the last 14 years matchups, click here.

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By Phil Steele

GAMES NOTES:

Toledo had a 526-446 yd edge and benefited from a 3-1 TO edge but still lost to Ball St at home. Toledo had entered the AP Poll for the first time since 2001 and as you see many times, teams that enter the AP for the first time in a long time, usually struggle with the attention that next week. Ball St took their opening 2 drives 82/11 and 87/7pl for td’s to lead 14-0 but UT battled back to 17-17 at the half and had a 350-220 yd edge at the half. UT had settled for a 29 yd FG. BS got a 61/10pl drive for a td to open the 3Q then missed a 35 yd FG and UT went 75/14pl. They settled for a 22 yd FG to make it 24-20. UT went 25/4pl and on 4&1 got a 16 yd td run to lead 27-24. BS tied it on a 30 yd FG with 9:41 left. UT went 68/7pl. After the game, Campbell was questioned for going for it on 4&1 on their next drive as they went 68/7pl and based on them settling for 2 short FG’s and the fact they had a td on the last 4&1, he probably made the right decision but UT was stuffed with 6:02 left. BS then went 86/11pl and got a 13 yd td run with 1:43 left to take the lead 34-27. UT on 4&7 from its own 27 fired incomplete.

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#23 Toledo takes on Ball St today. For the Top 25 Forecast and the projections you would normally see on Friday – head on over to PhilSteele.com today!

INTERESTING NOTE:
Nine of the 15 teams that made my Most Improved List featured in this year’s magazine have already clinched bowl bids and there is still a month left!!

GAMES NOTES:

Jordan Lynch only accounted for 3 td’s for Northern Illinois despite the final being 63-0 vs overmatched Massachusetts. NI played 2 backup QB’s leaving Lynch in for just the first series of the 3Q and he left with them up 42-0. UMass went for it on 4th down 4 times in the 1H on 4&2 at the NI47, 4&9 at the NI50, 4&2 at the NI27 and 4&8 at the NI7 and all 4 times, failed. They fumbled on their first two 3Q poss and were SOD on 4&6 at the NI46.

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GAMES NOTES:

I will admit when I’m wrong and last week I thought Texas had a great situational advantage. I thought Texas, with their defense would be able to handle West Virginia at home and win the game more comfortably than most thought before a record crowd of 101,851. WV finished with a 26-21 FD edge and 460-404 yd edge. After WV had a 40 yd FG blk’d they attempted to go for it numerous times on 4th down and met with success almost every time. On their 3rd drive they converted on 4&2 at midfield then on 4&4 were stopped but UT called time-out prior and on the next play WV got a 40 yd td pass. Texas led 28-27 at half and got the ball to open the 3Q and appeared to be in good shape going 54/13pl and settled for a 36 yd FG. WV’s 2nd 3Q poss converted on 4&6 and 4&1 on a 76/12pl drive for a td, 41-38 (10:50) UT was SOD on 4&13 and then a key play happened when on 3&6 from the WV 8 the snap got past QB Ash and he fell on it for a 16 yd loss. That forced a 41 yd FG and they missed and WV went 76/8pl as UT couldn’t get them off the field. Perhaps their most impressive player in the game was Andrew Buie who constantly broke tackles and rushed for 207 yards although Geno Smith is clearly the frontrunner for the Heisman hitting 25-35-268 yards. Hats off to WV for going into a hostile environment and beating a pretty good Texas team and they deserve to be in the Top 5.

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Here are my projections for games being played on Saturday, October 6th.

I list the projected scores from my computers forecast. Another column shows you the computers yardage forecast for each game. I think it will be interesting to see who the computer picks to win the yardage battle and see if they win the game. In my College Football magazine I have the plus and minus ratings. I update them weekly and then factor in the home edge and I will show you who the Plus Minus ratings forecast. I will also list who Vegas has favored to win each week and we can see how they do picking the actual winners of games. There is also a WEEKLY POLL which you can enter for free each week.

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Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams.
Last week the Top 25 forecasts went 15-1 (94%) and on the year they are 91-12 88%! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week which are 3-0 the last 2 weeks as both New Mexico and San Jose St pulled the upsets two weeks ago and Duke beat WF LW. To get projected box scores for all of the Top 25 games this week, click here.

#2 Oregon vs #23 Washington

Oregon has now won eight in a row in this series by an avg of 42-17. Last year UO had a huge game vs Stanford on deck and on the road only had a 381-278 yard edge. In fact, in the 1H UW had 11-6 FD and 23:54-6:06 TOP edges. The last time here UW only trailed 18-6 at the half. “In the 1H, when we were fresh and they were fresh, we outplayed them, but they wore us down,” Sarkisian said. This year UW had a bye and a Thursday game while UO is playing its 6th straight. The Huskies are off a 17-13 upset of Stanford as they came back from a 13-3 3Q deficit and held the Cardinal without an offensive td. Last week the Ducks led just 23-19 vs Wash St at the half but exploded for three 3Q td’s to blow the game open. No way can I go against the Ducks here at home as they get a 9th straight win over their rival. Read more…

Happy New Year!!!

	TICKET CITY BOWL 12:00 PM ESPNU Click bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

The college football season is fast approaching and in today’s blog I will give you a sneak peak at some of the early marquee college football non-conference games and how I think they will shake out as of right now. Also included is your current voting tallies for each of these games.

Remember if you visit the homepage right now, you can get a head start on voting in the Non-Conference Poll with all the non-conference games. To see where you rank against other voters, as soon as your vote is entered in, you will see the % stacked with or against you. In the next day or two the four remaining non-BCS conferences will be added on the front page. The Non-Conference Poll will run until Sunday, Aug 29th. On Monday the 30th, look for the Weekly Polls to start. There are games every day Thursday September 2nd thru Monday September 6th as the first week of the season looks to kick off with a bang! Weekly prizes will be awarded throughout the season. Read more…