Expansion Thoughts

The conference expansion/re-alignment situation to me is very similar to all the talk earlier this year of the NCAA Basketball tournament expanding. While I do not follow college basketball, it seemed like every day I turned on SportsCenter I would hear the rumors and possibilities of the tournament expanding to 96 teams but when it was all said and done only three teams were added.

With the news of Texas deciding to stay with the Big 12 (or is it now the new Big Ten?), I think all the expansion talk of there being four 16 super conferences will probably go by the wayside. All the talk about the Big East and ACC being in danger seems moot and I think Utah going to the Pac-10 should probably close all the moves as I do not feel the Big 12 will expand as they will not want to divide the TV pie up among two more teams.

Naturally the Big Ten is now a stronger conference with the addition of Nebraska and are clearly the #2 conference behind the SEC now. The WAC was dealt a severe blow with the loss of Boise to the MWC.

What I do not understand in this whole mess is how the Big 12 can lose two teams with one of them being Nebraska and go from a 70 million dollar TV contract to a 200 million dollar deal. Obviously Big 12 commissioner Dan Beebe did a great job of convincing Texas to stay and I am sure Kansas, Kansas St, Baylor and Iowa St fans are glad he did.

Power Ratings

If you are a follower of my magazine, I am sure you are familiar with the fact that I have NINE different sets of power ratings that I create each preseason to give me 9 different ways of analyzing a team. One is based on the individual talent level and performance of each position on each team and those are added up for the rating. Another is based on my Power Plays numbers, which include rushing and passing offenses, defenses and special teams. Another is a continually updated power rating based on the score of the games and the strength of opponent. Finally a few years back, before computers became part of the BCS rankings system, there was without a doubt some flaws in the polls. Teams rated #2 or #3 in the country really were not that talented and were maybe the 5th or 6th best. One internet site decided to produce a poll of some of the top analysts and experts each week and invited me to join. I myself work 365 days a year. During magazine time (March, April, May) and throughout the football season (August through January) there are many 15-18 hour days put in and all of them are spent solely working on FOOTBALL. When they invited me to join the poll, I wanted to give them the best set of power ratings in the country to help make the poll as accurate as possible. The dilemma I had was which set?

What I decided to do was combine all eight into one rating which gives me a very solid overall ranking for each team. The rating takes into account EVERY factor, using it as my main set of power ratings which thus created my 9th set. You can learn more about this main set of power ratings on page 315 of this year’s magazine. I also go into complete details on my plus/minus power ratings on page 305.

When I have all of my sets of power ratings finalized I then plug them into each individual team’s schedule and let the computer play out each game using the different power ratings. My computer will then show me which teams that have one or more sets of Power Ratings calling for them to have undefeated seasons. Naturally, if a team is projected at the top of my Power Ratings, it has a greater chance of going unbeaten. 

Here are the teams that are projected to have undefeated seasons by at least one of my power ratings this year.

Power Ratings Call For 12-0 Season

This list of teams has proven to be a good indicator of the chances of an undefeated season. In 2002, three sets of my ratings called for Ohio St to go unbeaten and the Buckeyes were the surprise team of the country and won the National Title. Basically any team that has finished unbeaten in the past 8 years has made this list.

Here are some teams that just missed the cut.

Power Ratings Call For 11-1 Season

I am sure you are wondering why I am so fascinated and dependent on power ratings when analyzing a team in the preseason and during the season. I am in my late 40’s and I started following college football with great intensity at about 10 years old. At that time (being a numbers guy) I devised my own set of power ratings, which was based mostly on where the preseason magazines I was reading ranked the teams. I even awarded points at that time for how many pictured players each team had in the magazines. I updated those ratings during the season based on the final scores of the games.

A few years later after compiling my ratings (and no longer counting pictures), I stumbled upon the GamePlan magazine. In the front of the magazine was a set of power ratings for each team!! I now had two sets of power ratings on each team and I updated them both during the year giving me two different ways of looking at the strength of a team and I was well on my way to nine different sets.

Also please check PhilSteele.com everyday to get my Top 30 Countdown, which posted #3 Alabama yesterday. Through Thursday, I will post both magazine pages on a new team ranked in the Top 30 and you can get an early look at my breakdown of your favorite team. Remember those magazine pages are available for only 24 hours for you to download. Today, Ohio St comes in at #2.

Last week we opened the polls on the homepage for you, the fans to vote on each and every conference matchup for eight conferences. Last year you guys were more accurate than any other college preview publication and this is a great way for me to gauge how the public views each game. When you vote you have the entire conference schedule in front of you and the home team is capitalized. Get your votes in today and see how the fans think the big games like Oklahoma-Texas, Ohio St at Iowa, Florida St at Miami, Fl and West Virginia at Pittsburgh are going to shake out! To vote you do have to register your e-mail address but this is just to make sure there is no stuffing of the ballot box.

Only 79 DAYS LEFT UNTIL THE FIRST COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME!!

When it comes to college football, I am a traditionalist.  The one thing I love about college football is of all the sports, college or pro, the regular season in college football is the one that means the most. I also love the rivalries and the tradition of the bowls. While I have been calling for a system that pits the #1 vs #4 and #2 vs #3 teams in the Jan 1 bowls for nearly a decade, I am vehemently against an 8 or 16 team playoff which would destroy the bowls and make the regular season meaningless.

In 1995 I was actually sad to see the SWC fold as I really enjoyed the great tradition and history of that conference.

From the recent news of Nebraska joining the Big Ten and Colorado heading to the Pac-10, it looks like college football re-alignment and expansion is going forward and I think it will move quickly. However, unlike some of the past radical changes to college football, I actually look forward to seeing which programs end up where and I salivate at the possibility of there being multiple super conferences.

As for the Pac-10, I think it is just a matter of time before they announce Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St as new members thus making it the first super conference with 16 teams. I believe the original eight members will represent one division and the Arizona schools along with the new additions will make up the other.

I think the Big Ten will eventually invite Missouri and it will take the Tigers a half a second to say yes, thus giving them 13 teams. Also I have to feel that the Big Ten would like to grab some of the major markets on the east coast, like New York, and getting schools like Pittsburgh and Rutgers would fit that mold.

This brings me to Notre Dame, which clearly values its independence. The only way they make a move to the Big Ten would be if the Big East dissolves. Naturally, the Big Ten wants Notre Dame with a passion and if they were to get a couple of the Big East schools to join, they could force Notre Dame’s hand with the possibility of the dissolution of the Big East.

The SEC will then look to grab some of the best teams in the ACC. Miami and Florida St will be at the top of their list and schools like Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and Clemson should also get consideration.  The Hokies particularly are a very strong program and would be a nice fit in a newly expanded SEC.

This would create three super conferences and the Big East and ACC leftovers would probably join to form a smaller conference.

As for some of the teams left out in the Big 12, my first guess would be that they would join the Mountain West. While I am sure many fans (particularly Kansas) are not thrilled with the possibility of that move, the Mountain West, with the future addition of Boise and perhaps the leftover Big 12 schools would turn into an even stronger conference. They already have three Top 25 regulars in TCU, BYU and Utah.

Without question big changes are coming and it should be a fun month of June for the college football fan!

As for my thoughts concerning the NCAA penalties on USC; I thought it was pretty harsh. While I was not in the meetings to see what the NCAA found, it was not like USC was showering multiple players with gifts to come to USC and play football. It implicated just one player getting involved with an agent after he was already established in school.

With the two-year bowl ban and the loss of 30 scholarships it is a similar case to Miami, Fl in the mid-90’s.  That bad news for Trojan fans is that it took the Canes five to six years to get back to competing for national championships.

In the short-term, I still think the Trojans can be a top team in the Pac-10 this year.  They will take an “us vs them” mentality and will want to show the entire country that they are still a top program. Naturally with the postseason ban for the Trojans my new choice for the Rose Bowl would be Oregon who I had tied for the top of the Pac-10 even before the recent news.

Next year, however, looks troubling for the Trojans as they will start to see a lack of depth with scholarship losses and possible transfers. With smaller recruiting classes the Trojans will struggle to be dominant like they were under former HC Pete Carroll from 2002-’08.

Update: The NCAA just annouced that the juniors and seniors to-be on the football team will be allowed to transfer to other FBS programs without having to sit out a season. Naturally if several players start to transfer, this now could effect USC’s performance this year.

Yesterday we opened the polls on the homepage for you, the fans to vote on each and every conference matchup for six conferences. Last year you guys were more accurate than any other college preview publication and this is a great way for me to gauge how the public views each game. When you vote you have the entire conference schedule in front of you and the home team is capitalized. Get your votes in today and see how the fans think the big games like Oklahoma-Texas, Ohio St at Iowa, Florida St at Miami, Fl and West Virginia at Pittsburgh are going to shake out! To vote you do have register your e-mail address but this is just to make sure there is no stuffing of the ballot box.

Also please check PhilSteele.com everyday to get my Top 30 Countdown, which posted #7 Florida yesterday. Thru June 16th, I will post both magazine pages on a new team ranked in the Top 30 and you can get an early look on how I breakdown your favorite team. Remember those magazine pages are available for only 24 hours for you to download. Today, Boise St comes in at #6.

I will be back tomorrow with my weekend blog.

Only 83 DAYS LEFT UNTIL THE FIRST COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME!!!

The NCAA has granted a 6th year of eligibility for Kent St RB Eugene Jarvis exactly 5 months to the day after he suffered a season-ending injury at Boston College.

In 2007 Jarvis tied a school record with 5 straight yard games (old record Don Fitzgerald in ’66).  He went on to break Eric Wilkerson’s 1988 school record of 1,325 in a season with 1,669 (6.0!) while also leading Kent St in receiving yards (306, 13.3). Jarvis was the first Kent St RB to lead the MAC in rushing since Wilkerson did it in ’88. In 2008, he was the leading returning FBS rusher and missed 3.5 games with injury (missed just one prior) but he still rushed for 801 (4.9) and was the #2 rec with 273 (10.9). Last year before the injury he rushed for 158 yards (4.3).

Obviously this is good news for Kent St and there is no kid more deserving than him. Knowing Eugene like I do, he will come back this season strong and play with a lot of passion.

There has been a lot of speculation about expansion for two of the major conferences in college football. The Pac 10 recently announced they were looking to expand on their 10 teams. Some possibilities could see the conference going after BYU and/or Utah from the MWC or Colorado from the Big 12 as the Buffalos get mentioned every time there is Pac 10 expansion talk.

The bigger story might actually come from the Big 10 as a couple of months ago they announced that they were looking to add at least 1 team to the conference which would allow for them to have 2 separate divisions and therefore a conference championship game. There has been a lot of discussion recently about the 12th team being Texas, which would be earth-shattering news if true.

Regardless of which teams end up where, there figures to be a big announcement soon and I think we will see the start of 14 team conferences with two 7-team divisions instead of the 6-team division format we have in some conferences right now. This obviously would mean more super conferences in the future.

The ACC and Big East recently announced their conference schedules and we now have all 6 of the BCS conferences schedules up and loaded on the website. Click here to get all the 2010 schedules for your favorite teams.   Make sure to click on each individual game where you have all the games played from the last 13 years at your fingertips! It’s never too early to start researching for this upcoming season.

Hopefully the MWC, CUSA and other conferences will announce their schedules soon and we will have it updated immediately.

Also make sure to check out the 2010 Spring Guide as we are adding new information to it daily.  I have been hard at work on this year’s magazine and right now I am finalizing last year’s power ratings, which includes my analysis all of the coaching changes at each school.

Within the next week or so I will be finalizing my Frosh list for 2010! Unlike past years, this year I will have it posted on the website with a detailed breakdown position by position and conference by conference!

Later this month when the combine is over I will give some analysis of the upcoming NFL draft and we will have daily updates with the top players at each position. This year’s draft is held on April 22-24.

That will do it for today. I will be back on Wednesday with another detailed blog. Have a great start to the work week!