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Posts Tagged ‘Florida St’

2012 Preseason AP Top 10 Projection!

January 30th, 2012 1 comment

Well here it is, my projected AP Top 10 for next year as of January 30, 2012! I will mention it now and I will mention it numerous times throughout today’s blog but this is not MY preseason Top 10 for next year, it is where I project the AP Top 10 to come out at the start of the season.

Most AP voters usually look at a couple of criteria when they evaluate a team for the upcoming season. First they look at the number of returning starters that the team has coming back particularly at the offensive skill positions. A team that returns its starting QB and a combination of its RB and WR’s is often times more highly thought of than a team that loses its starting QB but returns its entire offensive line. Similarly a team that returns most of its starters on offense but loses a lot of its defensive playmakers usually is more highly thought of than a team that returns a majority of its defensive starters but loses its skill position players on offense.

Another factor that is heavily weighted is the performance of the team in the bowl game, which undoubtedly is the lasting image of that team in the offseason. A team coming off a huge bowl win usually is more highly thought of than a team that is coming off a bowl loss regardless of what their schedule looks like for the upcoming season. Read more…

Champs/Alamo Bowl Forecasts

December 29th, 2011 No comments
CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL
Thursday, December 29th @ 5:30 p.m.
Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

NOTRE DAME (8-4) VS FLORIDA ST (8-4)

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
NOTRE DAME 107
200
19
2.7
-
100.6
FLORIDA ST
68
200
19
1.4
•••
100.9
This will be the 7th meeting for these 2 storied programs with FSU winning 4 of 6 incl 37-0 in ‘03 at South Bend. In ‘93 #1 FSU met #2 ND in the “Game of the Century” with the Irish pulling the 31-24 upset but the Noles went on to win the Nat’l Title as both finished with 1 loss. Their last bowl meeting was in ‘95 as FSU defeated ND 31-26 in the Orange Bowl. After an NCAA rec’d 9 gm bowl losing streak, ND has won their L/2 postssn appearances by a comb 44 pts and Kelly is 3-1 in bowls. The Noles have been to 30 consec bowls (FBS best) and this is Fisher’s 2nd bowl game winning the Chick-fil-A LY 26-17 over SC. The Irish went 5-3 vs bowl opp outscoring them 29-22 and outgaining them 402-386. FSU went 3-4 vs 7 bowl tms but outscored them 23-19 and outgained 317-313. ND played an ACC stretch of Wake, MD and BC going 3-0 outscoring them 28-17 and outgaining them 422-304. FSU went 2-1 vs same 3 opp’s with 23-16 score and 404-310 yardage edges. FSU went 2-2 on the road while ND was 4-2 away from South Bend. The Irish have 10 Sr st’rs and 17 upperclassmen while the Noles have 6 Sr’s among 16 upperclassmen. By looking at the teams, few gms besides the Nat’l Champ gm can match the talent on the field. The advantage FSU has is that they have a dominant Top 5 defense and is capable of shutting down even this ND offense. FSU’s offensive numbers are lower than expected but remember QB Manuel missed a few gms. ND has yet to face this type of spd on D and with the Noles having a big ST’s edge I’ll call for them to get the win here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: FLORIDA ST 27 NOTRE DAME 20

 

Read more…

2011 Top 25 Frosh Recruiting Rankings

February 28th, 2011 No comments

Here are my top 25 2011 recruiting rankings. They take into account the strength of the Top 5 signees, the Top 10 signees and the average signing grade per player for the overall class. This list is not about the quantity of the freshmen signed but the overall quality of the class. Sometimes a team with a small class of just 15 players may rate higher than one with 30. (Keep in my mind these rankings could be tweaked by the time my magazine hits the newsstands in early June) Read more…

Odds to Win 2011-12 BCS National Championship

February 14th, 2011 1 comment

Over the weekend I released my projected preseason AP Top 10 and I thought I would analyze another set of rankings for the upcoming season. A couple of weeks ago, several casinos released their odds for the 2011-12 BCS National Championship. While PhilSteele.com does not affiliate itself with gambling, I do think it is interesting to see how Vegas is examining the upcoming season.

Here are the Top 10 Favorites to win the title this upcoming year courtesy of Bodog.com.

1. Oklahoma             Odds: 7/2

If you checked out my projected AP Top 10 blog, you would have read that the Sooners are clearly the favorite going into next season and the odds certainly agree here. They return 15 starters on off/def including QB Jones, WR Broyles and LB Lewis. Their schedule sets up nicely with a bye before their road trip to Florida St (a team they dominated LY 47-17). In Big 12 play naturally there is the Red River Rivalry game vs Texas who is coming off a 5-7 season and the only other huge hurdle could be the season finale at Oklahoma St but the Sooners have won the Bedlam rivalry 8 straight times and have an overall mark of 82-16-7 vs their in-state rivals. Read more…

Projected Preseason AP Top 10

February 11th, 2011 13 comments

Well here it is, my projected AP Top 10 for next year as of February 11, 2011! I will mention it now and I will mention it numerous times throughout today’s blog but this is not MY preseason Top 10 for next year, it is where I project the AP Top 10 to come out at the start of the season.

Most AP voters usually look at a couple of criteria when they evaluate a team for the upcoming season. First they look at the number of returning starters that the team has coming back particularly at the offensive skill positions. A team that returns its starting QB and a combination of its RB and WRs is often times more highly thought of than a team that loses its starting QB but returns its entire offensive line. Similarly a team that returns most of its starters on offense but loses a lot of its defensive playmakers usually is more highly thought of than a team that returns a majority of its defensive starters but loses its skill position players on offense.

Another factor that is heavily weighted is the performance of the team in the bowl game, which undoubtedly is the lasting image of that team in the offseason. A team coming off a huge bowl win usually is more highly thought of than a team that is coming off a bowl loss regardless of what their schedule looks like for the upcoming season.

Using these criteria and a few more, I project the preseason AP Top 10 every year at the conclusion of the previous season, which in most cases is nearly 6 months in advance. Now as you all know, a lot can happen from January to August including injuries, suspensions, transfers, etc. Read more…

Friday’s Bowl Forecasts

December 31st, 2010 No comments

Have a Safe and Happy New Year!!!!

MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL
12:00 PM ESPN
Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

USF (7-5) VS CLEMSON (6-6)

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
USF 123
138
14
1.8
-
99.6
CLEMSON
148
198
22
2.1
•••
101.3
First meeting between these two schools. USF is making its 6th straight bowl appearance but its 1st under HC Holtz and this is USF’s 2nd trip to the Car Care Bowl losing 14-0 to NCSt in their 1st ever bowl in ‘05. This is also Clemson’s 6th straight bowl and 1st Car Care Bowl. The Car Care Bowl targeted CU due to their fans’ reputation for traveling well and the Tigers should certainly have the crowd edge here as CU is just 130 miles away. Both teams faced Miami (FL) with CU losing 30-21 (outgained 376-311) and USF winning 23-20 in OT despite being outgained 353-294 (3-1 TO edge).

There was great anticipation at USF after Holtz took over in January. The Bulls played 6 games decided by a TD or less (3 wins incl 2 in OT) and captured their 1st ever win over Miami. One sore spot all year was the erratic play of QB Daniels. He has suffered numerous injuries TY (missed finale) but is probable here. Daniels threw 7 of his 12 int vs FL and WV, both games that were closer than the final suggests. Overall USF is #89 on offense and #41 on defense. LB Williams leads the team in tackles and tfl. USF is #55 in my pass D rankings all’g 188 ypg (59%) with a 16-13 ratio vs a very soft slate of opposing QB’s. USF is #60 in my ST rankings with a low net punt avg (34.4, last in BE) but strong ret specialists with KR Lindsey #2 in the BE in avg and PR Mitchell #4. PK Bonani ret’d from a severe inj TY and was nearly perfect inside the 50 (16-17).

Clemson began the season 3-3 for the 9th time S/’95 and 3rd year in a row. After two easy wins, they faced their toughest test in the entire month of Sept when they traveled to Auburn. After punching the Tigers in the mouth, CU all’d a comeback and fell in OT, which started a streak of 3 straight losses. The offense comes in rated #64. Colorado Rockies #1 DC QB Parker struggled with int TY but mended his rift with Swinney after being benched vs South Carolina and will start the last gm of his career here. The DL (6’4” 290) totaled 25.5 of the tm’s 28 sks, led by ACC DPY/Nagurski winner Bowers (15.5). The secondary ranks #20 all’g 192 ypg (52%) with a 16-14 ratio. The D is ranked #13 overall while the ST’s come in at #9 led by Ray Guy semifinalist P Zimmerman (only ACC P in final 10).

Read more…

Week 6 Top 25 Game Performances

October 11th, 2010 No comments
RK TEAM FOE OFF Rush OFF PASS OFF PTS DEF RUSH DEF PASS DEF PTS Gm Grade
1 FLORIDA ST AT Miami, Fl 291 176 45 188 233 17 105.875
2 S CAROLINA Alabama 107 201 35 34 315 21 102.975
3 NEBRASKA AT Kansas St 451 136 48 180 135 13 102.025
4 ILLINOIS AT Penn St 282 155 33 65 170 13 101.475
5 UTAH AT Iowa St 239 354 68 170 178 27 100.925
6 LSU AT Florida 162 224 33 90 153 29 99.275
7 TCU Wyoming 297 281 45 75 116 0 98.175
8 CALIFORNIA UCLA 304 83 35 26 118 7 97.625
9 CINCINNATI Miami, Oh 384 225 45 42 227 3 97.075
10 ARKANSAS AT Texas A&M 130 311 24 105 218 17 96.525
10 MICHIGAN ST AT Michigan 233 286 34 163 213 17 96.525
12 BOISE ST Toledo 207 294 57 64 222 14 94.325
12 LOUISVILLE Memphis 299 275 56 39 184 0 94.325
14 MISS ST AT Houston 409 129 47 47 356 24 91.575
15 TROY ST AT Middle Tennessee 238 281 42 28 179 13 91.025
15 NC ST Boston College 75 347 44 99 173 17 91.025
17 USC AT Stanford 115 384 35 200 284 37 90.75
18 OHIO ST Indiana 122 350 38 72 142 10 90.475
19 AUBURN AT Kentucky 310 211 37 102 227 34 90.2
20 TEXAS TECH AT Baylor 173 462 45 80 427 38 89.65
21 MISSOURI Colorado 120 225 26 60 250 0 87.725
21 ARIZONA ST AT Washington 99 288 24 145 209 14 87.725
23 VANDERBILT E Michigan 205 353 52 105 104 6 87.45
24 GEORGIA Tennessee 136 266 41 9 260 14 86.625
24 UCF UAB 228 171 42 116 153 7 86.625

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2010 Coaching Changes

August 20th, 2010 No comments

From 2005-’08 I published an article titled Coaching Changes in my College Football Preview magazine. Each year I try to make the magazine a little bit bigger and a little bit better but we’re capped out at 328 pages so Coaching Changes does not appear in my 2010 magazine. We have had a lot of requests for this article and since the website has an unlimited amount of room, PhilSteele.com is a great vehicle to continue publishing this article and I will do so each year. Read more…

Early Look at the Marquee Non-Conference Games

August 18th, 2010 4 comments

The college football season is fast approaching and in today’s blog I will give you a sneak peak at some of the early marquee college football non-conference games and how I think they will shake out as of right now. Also included is your current voting tallies for each of these games.

Remember if you visit the homepage right now, you can get a head start on voting in the Non-Conference Poll with all the non-conference games. To see where you rank against other voters, as soon as your vote is entered in, you will see the % stacked with or against you. In the next day or two the four remaining non-BCS conferences will be added on the front page. The Non-Conference Poll will run until Sunday, Aug 29th. On Monday the 30th, look for the Weekly Polls to start. There are games every day Thursday September 2nd thru Monday September 6th as the first week of the season looks to kick off with a bang! Weekly prizes will be awarded throughout the season. Read more…

ACC Team of the Decade

July 6th, 2010 6 comments

For the next two weeks, I will be taking a look at the conference teams of the decade for 2000-2009. Factored into my analysis will be conference win %, conference and division titles, bowl games and bowl wins. I will also include BCS bowl wins, final AP rankings and number of national championships for the major conferences. There have been several teams who have changed conferences during that time and I will include them in the analysis for any season(s) they were affiliated with that certain conference. I will also be doing a breakdown of how the conference did in bowl games during the decade and I will emphasis the overall win/loss record, the number of BCS bowl wins, and the records against Non-BCS and ranked bowl teams. Read more…