By Phil Steele
Happy New Year! 2013 begins with a bang as Purdue and Oklahoma St face off in the Heart of Dallas Bowl while Northwestern and Mississippi St meet in the Gator. Nebraska and Georgia square off in the Capital One Bowl as well as some future first round draft choices in the Outback Bowl. Of course, the prestigious Rose Bowl goes today and one-loss BCS Buster Northern Illinois meets Florida St in the Orange Bowl to end the evening. Each day there is a bowl I will have a breakdown of the game here on my blog. But if you can’t wait for the actual writeup, make sure you download my FREE Bowl Guide which gives you a glimpse of each game being played this bowl season. The Bowl Guide includes Stat Leaders, Past Meetings, Bowl Records, Game By Game Stats and Previous Bowl Game Results. Everything you need for this post season at your fingertips! Here is the forecast for today’s bowls. Make sure you check back tomorrow for the Sugar Bowl!
Categories: Bowl Projections, College Football Forecasts Capital One Bowl, Florida St, Gator Bowl, Georgia, Heart of Dallas, Heart of Dallas Bowl, Michigan, Mississippi St, Nebraska, Northern Illinois, Northwestern, Oklahoma St, orange bowl, Outback Bowl, Purdue, rose bowl, South Carolina, Stanford, wisconsin
By Phil Steele
Teddy Bridgewater gave a remarkable performance. He was playing with a broken wrist, a sore ankle and looked like he wouldn’t play but trailing 7-0 he came in and finished 20-28-263 and was sacked 3x for 28 yards. He was very mobile but helped Louisville to the win over Rutgers. Two big plays gave RU a 14-3 halftime lead. They got an 85 yd td pass on their first offensive play to Coleman and then after UL got a 20 yd FG with 9:54 left in the 2Q, RU, 2pl later, got a 68 yd td pass to Harrison for their 14-3 lead. In the 1Q UL was SOD at their own 48 but RU was SOD at the UL41. At the half it was 14-3 and UL had a 9-4 FD edge but RU thanks to 2 big plays had a 219-158 yd edge. UL missed a 47 yd FG then drove 90/14pl for a td. RU fmbl’d the KO and UL got a 20 yd td pass on the next play by Bridgewater for the lead, 17-14. Bridgewater was int’d at the RU29 on their next poss with 10:17 left and RU drove 21/7pl for a 38 yd FG to tie. UL got 1 FD and punted with 4:39 left and RU on 3&8 was int’d. After a pen on UL, they started back at the RU40 but got a 30 yd pass and a 29 yd FG with 1:31 left. RU30 got a FD to the 48 but then there was miscommunication and Nova’s deep pass was int’d with no WR around on a diving catch by Floyd at the 18 with 1:06 left and UL got the BCS Bowl berth. Read more…
Categories: News & Notes ACC Championship, Alabama, Arkansas St, Baylor, Big Ten Championship, Boise St, Cincinnati, Connecticut, CUSA Championship, FAU, Florida St, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Hawaii, Kansas, Kansas St, Kent St, Louisiana, Louisville, MAC Championship, Middle Tenn, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico St, Northern Illinois, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Pac-12 Championship, Pittsburgh, rutgers, SEC Championship, South Alabama, Stanford, TCU, Texas, Texas St, Tulsa, UCF, UCLA, USF, West Virginia, wisconsin
By Phil Steele
A week after an outstanding 17-4 81% record for my Top 25 forecasts, last week’s results are very surprising at just 12-7 63%. Still, on the year they are now 209-49 81%! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week which look to bounce back this week.
SEC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
GEORGIA DOME (Atlanta, GA)
#2 ALABAMA VS #3 GEORGIA
In what is, in essence, a national title semifinal, the winner here will advance to play #1 Notre Dame in the national champ game in Miami on January 7th. These two have not played since ‘08 when #8 Bama beat #3 Georgia on the road 41-30, a game that many Bama fans point to as one of the key wins which got the Crimson Tide’s recent run of dominance started. The Tide/Bulldogs have played just 6 times in the last 20 years (3-3 split) and have not met here in the SEC Championship game. In fact, this is the Tide’s 8th appearance in the SEC Title game (3-4) but first against a team other than UF. UGA makes its second straight trip here and its fifth appearance in the Richt era (2-2). While not many can argue that these two don’t deserve to be here as Bama beat LSU on the road 21-17 and UGA handed UF its only loss 17-9 (thanks to 6 UF TO’s), it should be noted that both benefitted from rather fortunate SEC scheduling as UGA skipped out on the top 3 teams in the West (Bama, LSU and A&M) while Bama didn’t play the top 3 teams in the East (UGA, UF and SC). Both come in off blowout wins of their rivals as Bama crushed Auburn 49-0 (most lopsided Iron Bowl in 64 years) rolling up 25-7 FD and 483-163 yard edges and led 42-0 at the half. Meanwhile, UGA rolled to a 42-10 win over GT as they led 42-3 midway through the 3Q but were outgained 426-379 and outFD’d 26-18. They did average an astonishing 10.5 yards per play in the 1H. Both teams are led by veteran QB’s as Murray and McCarron are #1-2 in the NCAA in pass eff and have combined for a 55-9 ratio! They also have stout D’s as while Bama’s ranks #1 in most categories, one could argue that UGA’s is more talented and since S Williams called out the D prior to the UF game, they’ve allowed just 9 ppg in the last 5 games. The Bama D did give up 400+ yards in back-to-back games vs LSU/A&M earlier this year while UGA OC Bobo has called this UGA offense the best he’s ever seen as they are avg a school record 38 ppg. While each has Top 20 units on both offense and defense, Bama does have the significant ST’s edge (#22-71) and Saban is 7-2 in his last 9 games vs Top 20 teams while Richt is 1-6 in his last 7. Read more…
Categories: Top 25 Games ACC Championship game, Alabama, Baylor, Big Ten Championship game, Boise St, CUSA Championship game, Florida St, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Kansas St, Kent St, MAC Championship game, Nebraska, Nevada, Nicholls St, Northern Illinois, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Oregon St, SEC Championship Game, Stanford, TCU, Texas, Tulsa, UCF, UCLA, wisconsin
By Phil Steele
Troy had a 23-10 FD edge and 472-328 yd edge but Middle Tenn at home came away with a fortunate victory and Troy clinched a losing season. Troy was int’d on their 2nd poss and ret’d 22 yds to their 25 and MT got a 37 yd FG on a 20 yd drive. Troy went 60/9pl but fmbl’d at the 2 and on the next play, Parker got a 98 yd td run for MT, 10-0. Troy went 80/11pl for a td. Troy fmbl’d at the MT6 after a 42/5pl drive. MT got a 66 yd pass to Parker to the 28 but had a 43 yd FG blk’d. Troy had a punt blk’d 4pl later and MT got a 26 yd FG, 13-7 (6:26 2Q). At half MT had a 251-223 yd edge. Troy opened the 3Q with a 78/10pl drive and a 4 yd td pass put them up 14-13. 5 punts. Troy went 45/7pl but on FD from the MT33 fmbl’d and it was ret’d 59 yds to the 8. MT got a 21 yd FG on a 4 yd drive to lead 16-14. MT fmbl’d at the Troy44 on its next drive and Troy went 56/8pl for a td with 9:06 left for a 21-16 lead. MT was int’d on a deep pass and ret’d 43 yds to their 47. Troy got 1 FD and was int’ and ret’d 77 yds for a td with 5:48 left, the 2 pt conversion made it 24-21. Troy got 2 FD and on 4&4 fired incomplete at the MT27 with 2:46 left and MT got 1 FD and ran the clock. Read more…
Categories: News & Notes Baylor, Boston College, Civil War, Clemson, Colorado St, FIU, florida, Florida St, Hawaiii, Houston, Idaho, Louisiana, Louisiana Tech, Memphis, Michigan, Michigan St, Middle Tennessee, Minnesota, Mississippi St, Missouri, NC State, New Mexico, Notre Dame, Ohio St, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Ole Miss, Oregon, Oregon St, rice, San Diego St, San Jose St, South Alabama, South Carolina, Southern Miss, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Troy, Tulane, ULM, UNLV, USC, Utah St, UTEP, Wyoming
By Phil Steele
Last week the Top 25 Forecasts went 17-4 81% and on the year they are now 197-42 82%! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week which look to bounce back this week.
For projected box scores and the last 14 years matchups, click here.
Categories: Top 25 Games Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Clemson, Connecticut, Eastern Michigan, florida, Florida St, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Idaho, Iowa, Kent St, Louisville, LSU, Michigan, Mississippi St, Missouri, Nebraska, Northern Illinois, Notre Dame, Ohio, Ohio St, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Ole Miss, Oregon, Oregon St, Pittsburgh, rutgers, South Carolina, Stanford, TCU, Texas, Texas A&M, UCLA, USC, Utah St
By Phil Steele
Ball St solidified its bowl standing and Ohio’s banged up team kept sliding. The Bobcats missed as many as 10 players due to injury but did only trail 21-17 at the half. Ball St lost their starting QB Keith Wenning who hit 16-20-172. Veteran Kelly Page came in and ran 7 yards for a td on his only play of the 1H and OU did get to the BSU12 with :12 left in the half but was sacked on the final play and did not score. OU got a 58 yd td run by Blankenship on the first drive of the 2H to take a 24-21 lead but Ball got a 68 yd Edwards run keying a 71/2pl drive for a td and OU missed a 27 yd FG. After 2 punts, BSU went 59/10pl for a 38 yd FG and OU went on an 11pl drive for a 34 yd FG, 31-27. Ball, after a 46 yard KR and a 15 yd penalty on a personal foul, drove 38/1pl for a td then after a punt went 65/6pl for a td and after OU went 3&out again, went 77/8pl for a td and turned it into a 52-27 rout with 2:18 left. Page hit just 5-7-41 rushing 4x’s for 34 yards.
Categories: News & Notes Air Force, Alabama, Arizona St, Arkansas, Arkansas St, army, Ball St, Boise St, Boston College, Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Cincinnati, Colorado, Colorado St, Duke, Eastern Mich, FAU, FIU, florida, Florida St, Georgia, Georgia Southern, Georgia Tech, Hawaii, Houston, Indiana, Iowa, Jacksonville St, Kent St, Marshall, Maryland, Memphis, Miami, Michigan, Michigan St, Middle Tenn, Mississippi St, Montel Harris, Navy, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Northern Illinois, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio, Penn St, rice, rutgers, Sam Houston St, Shula Bowl, SMU, South Alabama, South Carolina, Temple, Texas A&M, Texas St, Toledo, Troy, Tulsa, UAB, UCF, USF, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Washington, Washington St, Western Carolina, Western Mich, Wofford
By Phil Steele
Last week the Top 25 Forecasts went 17-3 85% and on the year they are now 180-38 83%! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week which look to bounce back this week.
For projected box scores and last 14 years matchups, click here.
#1 Oregon vs #14 Stanford
Stanford has lost 2 games during the regular season in ‘10 and ‘11 and they were both to Oregon as the Ducks are 9-1 in this series. Last year the grass was wet and muddy which favored the bigger Cardinal but the speedy Ducks still won 53-30. The last time here SU actually led 21-3 after 1Q and 31-24 at the half but UO would score the only points in the 2H in the 52-31 home win. Last week the Ducks withstood injuries to their entire DL and brief absences by QB Mariota and Barner to win their 13th straight game overall 59-17 over Cal. Mariota threw 6 td’s and UO scored the game’s final 35 points after Cal cut it to 24-17 in the 3Q. SU is off a 27-23 win over OSU in a topsy-turvey game that saw Stanford race out to a 14-0 lead before OSU scored 23 straight points, then the Cardinal closed it out with 2 td’s. QB Hogan got his first start and completed 22-29-254-3-2 and they overcame a -3 TO deficit. UO has the Civil War on deck but after being crowned the AP’s new #1 team with GameDay on hand, look for the Ducks to keep their foot on the gas here as this is a terrible matchup for the slower Cardinal.
Categories: Uncategorized Alabama, Baylor, Bowling Green, cal, Cincinnati, Clemson, florida, Florida St, Georgia, Georgia Southern, Iowa, Jacksonville St, Kansas St, Kent St, LA Tech, LSU, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, NC State, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Ohio St, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Ole Miss, Oregon, Oregon St, rutgers, Sam Houston St, South Carolina, Stanford, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, UCLA, USC, Utah St, Wake Forest, West Virginia, Western Carolina, wisconsin, Wofford
By Phil Steele
Toledo had a 526-446 yd edge and benefited from a 3-1 TO edge but still lost to Ball St at home. Toledo had entered the AP Poll for the first time since 2001 and as you see many times, teams that enter the AP for the first time in a long time, usually struggle with the attention that next week. Ball St took their opening 2 drives 82/11 and 87/7pl for td’s to lead 14-0 but UT battled back to 17-17 at the half and had a 350-220 yd edge at the half. UT had settled for a 29 yd FG. BS got a 61/10pl drive for a td to open the 3Q then missed a 35 yd FG and UT went 75/14pl. They settled for a 22 yd FG to make it 24-20. UT went 25/4pl and on 4&1 got a 16 yd td run to lead 27-24. BS tied it on a 30 yd FG with 9:41 left. UT went 68/7pl. After the game, Campbell was questioned for going for it on 4&1 on their next drive as they went 68/7pl and based on them settling for 2 short FG’s and the fact they had a td on the last 4&1, he probably made the right decision but UT was stuffed with 6:02 left. BS then went 86/11pl and got a 13 yd td run with 1:43 left to take the lead 34-27. UT on 4&7 from its own 27 fired incomplete.
Categories: News & Notes Arizona St, Arkansas, Arkansas St, army, Ball St, Boston College, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Central Mich, Cincinnati, Colorado St, Connecticut, Eastern Mich, Florida St, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, Kent St, Kentucky, LA Tech, Louisville, LSU, Marshall, McNeese, Memphis, Miami, Michigan, Mississippi St, Missouri, Nebraska, North Texas, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio, Ole Miss, Penn St, Pittsburgh, Purue, rutgers, SMU, South Alabama, South Carolina, Southern Miss, Syracuse, TCU, Temple, Tennessee, Texas, Texas St, Texas Tech, Toledo, Tulane, UAB, UCF, ULM, UNLV, USC, UTEP, UTSA, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Western Mich, wisconsin
Last week the Top 25 Forecasts went 15-4 79% and on the year they are now 163-35 82%! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week which added another winner last week when East Carolina upset Houston.
For projected box scores and Last 14 Years Matchups for all of these games, please click here.
#1 Alabama vs #15 Texas A&M
Bama is, of course, coming off the huge game vs LSU although they do only have Western Carolina on deck. A&M, meanwhile, is on its third straight away game and playing for the 10th straight week. Last week the Tide jumped out to a 14-3 halftime lead at #5 LSU but found themselves down 17-14 late in the game as McCarron completed just 1-7 passes for 0 yards in the 2H prior to the final drive. LSU blew some opportunities to put the game away including 3 failed FG attempts. McCarron led Bama 72/5pl in a drive that culminated with a td pass with just :51 left as the #1 Tide won 21-17. McCarron has still not thrown an int this year but the #1 Tide D did give up 435 yards and they will have their hands full again this week vs ‘Johnny Football’ who tore through Miss St’s D to the tune of 440 total yards (30-36 passing!) as the Aggies rolled to a 38-13 win at MSU. A&M outgained MSU 693-310 and had a 36-15 FD edge. Keep in mind, the last 2 times Bama has lost a game it came at the hands of mobile QB’s in Cam Newton and Jordan Jefferson. Still I can’t step in front of the elephant here as A&M’s offense has been sluggish in the 2H of games vs the other two elite D’s it faced earlier this year in UF/LSU.
Categories: Top 25 Games Alabama, AP Top 25, Arizona St, Arkansas, army, Auburn, Baylor, Boston College, California, Clemson, florida, Florida St, Georgia, Houston, Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, Louisiana, Louisiana Tech, Louisville, LSU, Maryland, Mississippi St, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Oregon, Oregon St, Penn St, rutgers, South Carolina, Stanford, Syracuse, TCU, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas St, Texas Tech, Tulsa, UCLA, USC, Virginia Tech, Washington St
Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game.
Last week the Top 25 forecasts went 15-3 83% and on the year they are 118-21 85%!! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week which are 5-1 the last 4 weeks!! To get projected box scores for theses Top 25 games, click here.
#1 Alabama at Tennessee
Finally this game returns to The Third Sat in October. It may surprise some to know that from ‘95-’06 UT was 10-2 in this series. Since Bama lost at UT 16-13 in ‘06, they are 5-0 and have won their last 2 trips here 29-9 in ‘08 (+193 yards) and 41-10 in ‘10 (+221 yards). Last year’s game was surprisingly tied 6-6 at the half with Bama only having a 157-114 yard edge but Saban let them know about his unhappiness and Bama did not allow a FD in the 2H and had a 280-41 yard edge winning 37-6. The #1 Tide again have the nation’s #1 D and last week the only td allowed came on a 98 yard KR as they rolled Mizzou 42-10 racking up a 355-37 rush yard edge! Bama is on its second straight away which didn’t occur last year. After last week’s loss to Miss St 41-31, UT has lost 14 straight vs ranked opponents with the avg loss by 19 points per game. Despite huge improvements in the run game (avg 185 ypg), the Vols are 3-3 and Dooley is on one of the hottest seats in America. While Bama is well rested off a bye and blowout, they may be peeking ahead to games against Mississippi St and LSU on deck. Read more…
Categories: Top 25 Games Alabama, Arizona St, Boise St, BYU, California, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colorado, florida, Florida St, Georgia, Kansas, Kansas St, Kentucky, Louisville, LSU, Maryland, Miami Fl, Michigan, Michigan St, Middle Tenn, Mississippi St, NC State, Notre Dame, Ohio St, Oklahoma, Oregon, Oregon St, Purdue, rutgers, South Carolina, Stanford, TCU, Temple, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Toledo, UNLV, USC, USF, Utah, Virginia Tech, West Virginia