Well here it is, my projected AP Top 10 for next year as of January 30, 2012! I will mention it now and I will mention it numerous times throughout today’s blog but this is not MY preseason Top 10 for next year, it is where I project the AP Top 10 to come out at the start of the season.
Most AP voters usually look at a couple of criteria when they evaluate a team for the upcoming season. First they look at the number of returning starters that the team has coming back particularly at the offensive skill positions. A team that returns its starting QB and a combination of its RB and WR’s is often times more highly thought of than a team that loses its starting QB but returns its entire offensive line. Similarly a team that returns most of its starters on offense but loses a lot of its defensive playmakers usually is more highly thought of than a team that returns a majority of its defensive starters but loses its skill position players on offense.
Another factor that is heavily weighted is the performance of the team in the bowl game, which undoubtedly is the lasting image of that team in the offseason. A team coming off a huge bowl win usually is more highly thought of than a team that is coming off a bowl loss regardless of what their schedule looks like for the upcoming season. Read more…
Categories: Offseason Notes, Phil Steele News Tags: 2012, Alabama, AP Top 10, Arkansas, blog, college football, Florida St, Georgia, LSU, Michigan, Oklahoma, Oregon, phil steele, Projection, South Carolina, USC, West Virginia
A lot of people ask me if I have a favorite team. I was born and raised and still live in Cleveland, Ohio. I was a fan of many teams as a child but now that I put out a National magazine, I cannot afford to be a fan of any team. I have to pick the teams where I think they will finish each year. I was doing a radio show last week and I was asked if I have a favorite team or teams. My response was a strong YES! The interviewer was surprised by that answer and also eager to hear which team I would pick. My answer was my favorite team each year is the team I pick #1 in the magazine and my favorite teams are the ones I have picked higher than all the other major magazines out there. I then said that each year I establish a list of my favorite teams for that year. I then give this list to my wife. I wear a shirt and tie to work every day during the week and my tie is always a college team. I wear polo shirts during the weekend and when not at work and they are always different college teams. The list I give my wife is the ones to buy that I will be wearing for the upcoming year as these are the teams I will be the biggest fan of for the upcoming season. I was then asked “What teams will your wife be buying ties and shirts of this year? That was a great question and I thought I would answer it in a blog.
I went to preseason.stassen.com to find out where all the magazines have everyone ranked for the upcoming year. Here is the list of teams that I will be rooting for the most this year.
1. Alabama-As I said every year the team that is my pick to win the national title is my favorite team of the year and this year that team is the Alabama Crimson Tide. Last year I was ambushed by many Crimson Tide fans because I did not pick them to go to the national title game when many had them pre-season #1. They only had 2 starters back on D and a brutal schedule. In the end Bama went 10-3 and did not play in the title game like I predicted. This year is a different story. The Tide have the best defense in the country and their schedule is much more manageable as they avoid South Carolina and Georgia out of the East and get Arkansas and LSU at home. I will be decked out in Bama garb all year long and hopefully they bring home their second national title in three years! Read more…
Categories: Offseason Notes Tags: 2011, Alabama, blog, college football, Favorite Teams, Georgia, Houston, Magazine, phil steele, Southern Miss, Texas
Making my Most Improved List has generally been a blessing for teams, as they usually make big turnarounds. In 1999, the #1 most improved team in my Preseason Rankings was Hawaii and they had the NCAA’s largest turnaround on record, going from a winless season in 1998 (0-12) to 9-4 and a bowl victory one year later!!!
The year 2000 was a VERY successful season as well for my Most Improved Teams. Of the top 14 Most Improved Teams that year, TEN went from a losing season to being bowl eligible!!! In 2001 and 2002, nine of the 20 teams on my Most Improved List list each year went from having a non-winning season to making a bowl and in 2003, 8 of the top 20 teams went from a .500 or losing seasons to being bowl eligible.
There was a total of TEN teams that did not have winning records in 2003 who improved to a winning record in ’04. NINE (90%) of them were on my list! In 2005, my top 16 Most Improved Teams made incredible strides. The top 16 Most Improved Teams on my list in 2005 had a combined record of 66-111 (37%) in 2004 and improved to 102-84 (55%) in 2005. Read more…
Do you think it is easy picking a National Champ prior to the year? Since 1994, only 3 times has the preseason #1 team gone on to win the National Title. In 2008, Georgia was the preseason #1 team but I had FLORIDA to win the title and the Gators delivered for me!! Athlon was the only other source to have Florida #1. In 2007 NO Magazine had LSU or Ohio St #1 (USC was the consensus #1). In 2006, National Champ Florida was not picked #1 by ANY magazine and they were picked anywhere from #4 down to #20. They were #7 in the preseason AP Poll and #8 in the Coaches’ Poll. In 2005 everyone had USC again and no one had the actual Champ, Texas. Only in 1999 (everyone with Florida St), 2001 (two magazines) and 2004 (everyone with USC) did any of the Big 9 preseason magazines correctly pick the National Champ. Read more…
Categories: Offseason Notes Tags: 2011, blog, Boise St, college football, Georgia, Notre Dame, phil steele, Surprise Teams, Texas A&M, Top Non-AQ, Virgnia Tech
The last two days I have gone over how all 120 teams have fared at home this decade and how they have fared on the road. Here are the results for all 120 teams combined.
120 FBS Home team records: 4593-2651 (63.4%)
120 FBS Away team records: 2602-3957 (39.7%)
That means that on the average teams in the FBS (1A) have a home winning % that is 23.7% greater than their away winning percentage. Now you guys know me by now. I cant leave things go at just that without having a few more questions answered. I wonder which teams play at a much higher level at home than they do on the road. This would be answered by taking the home winning % and subtracting the road %. Also which teams are true road warriors almost playing as well on the road as they do at home? Here are the results for all 120 teams for their home and away records this decades. I ranked them in order of biggest disparity between home and away % to the lowest. Read more…
Yesterday I took a look at the best and worst home teams this decade and today I take a look at the road warriors. Here are the current away records this decade.
Away Records Past Decade Read more…
Many of you have asked me for an updated Bowl Projections listing since USC was eliminated from bowl contention recently. In the magazine which went to press before the NCAA’s ruling I projected the Trojans to go to the Rose Bowl. Naturally most of my Pac-10 selections for bowls have changed with the ineligibility of USC. Oregon now gets my pick to go to the Rose Bowl and a lot of the other Pac-10 teams get bumped up. Here are my current projections for all 35 of this year’s bowl games which includes the BCS Championship game. Read more…
Categories: Bowl Projections Tags: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, bcs, Bog, Bowl Projections, Capital One Bowl, college football, Cotton Bowl, fiesta bowl, florida, Gator Bowl, Georgia, Iowa, LSU, Miami Fl, Michigan, National Title, Nebraska, Ohio St, Oklahoma, orange bowl, Oregon, Outback Bowl, Penn St, phil steele, Pittsburgh, rose bowl, Sugar Bowl, TCU, Texas, wisconsin
