NORTH CAROLINA (7-5) VS MISSOURI (7-5)

PHIL’S FORECAST: MISSOURI 27 NORTH CAROLINA 26

GEORGIA TECH (6-6) VS AIR FORCE (8-4)

While GT is likely disappointed with the season as a whole, as after winning the ACC Title LY, they’ve fallen to 6-6. AF, however is thrilled, after going 8-4 TY beating BYU and winning the CIC Trophy for the 1st time since 2002. The Jackets have taken on the tougher sked (#58-81) but remember that AF travelled to Oklahoma and gave them a scare, only losing by 3. This is a long distance from both schools but AF has the edge with military bases located nearby and the Bowl offering up a Military Ticket Initiative to donate to local bases. While AF ended its season earlier (11/18, GT done 11/27), this is the offense each team takes on daily, so extra prep time weighs no benefit to either.

GT comes in with my #51 offense but there is a question at QB. Against VA Tech, st’r Nesbitt broke his arm while trying to make a tkl. He was aiming to return here, but currently is doubtful. His bkup Washington has thrown for 97 ypg (63%) with a 2-1 ratio while adding 289 rush (4.4) in his 3 starts. HC Johnson called out RB Allen at times throughout the season and he responded by earning 1st Tm ACC and finished #2 in the conference in rushing. Johnson had some issues with the OL and was forced to alter the rotation due to injuries throughout the season (5 different starting combos used). Their #65 defense has not had the same inj issues as they’ve missed 1 start due to inj this entire year. The special teams come in with just my #105 ranking and this could be a problem area for the Jackets tonight.

On the other side Air Force’s #43 offense is led by QB Jefferson. While AF is definitely a run first offense (699 rush att, 145 pass TY), Jefferson went over 100 yds pass 7x’s incl a ssn high 201 vs Utah. Three of AF’s top 5 rushers are underclassmen led by Jr Clark. AF was thin at FB after losing Tew vs SDSt but Walker stepped up and rushed for 264 (5.0) in the L/3. Tew is expected to return and that should bolster AF’s run offense that ranks #2 in the NCAA and the Falcons are 20-4 when a player goes over 100 rush yds in a gm. AF’s D has been known for TO’s under HC Calhoun as into TY they were +46 in his tenure! While they’ve forced 20 fmbl’s TY, they’ve only recovered 7 and on the season they’re just +1 TO. LY the run D all’d zero 200 yd rush gm, but TY 6 have gone over that number (incl 377 all’d to TCU). They do rank #21 in my pass eff D all’g 157 ypg (56%) with a 10-11 ratio. The #12 ST’s unit is led by KR Warzeka who had a 100 yd KR TD. The unit has blk’d at least 1 kick every year since ‘90 and has 3 TY.

Air Force, as all service academies do, prepares well for the bowls and this year they see a new venue after having been to the Armed Forces Bowl three straight years. Georgia Tech, with 6 wins, is disappointed at being here but, of course, does not have to spend the time most teams do prepping for this opponent. The Yellow Jackets have dropped 4 of their last 5 gms, all by a TD plus and I feel that it’ll be tough for them to be motivated plus Johnson’s bowl performances the past two years have left a lot to be desired. Read more…