By Phil Steele

AFC WILDCARD

@philsteele042 • #AFCWildcard

Indianapolis (11-5)

vs

Baltimore (10-6)

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By Phil Steele

NY Jets at Buffalo

Rex Ryan ensured that the Jets would again be on the front page of every NY paper promoting McElroy as the starting QB. He was 14-24 with a 0-1 ratio vs San Diego and his struggles to make the correct reads were obvious as he was sacked 11 times. Now Ryan is going back to Sanchez in this one. These two also faced off in the season opener with the Jets winning 48-28 and after that explosion NY avg’d just 16 ppg the rest of the way. Buffalo is off a loss at Miami and while they only totaled 7 pts they won the yardage battle 381-301 but were -4 TO’s. The Jets know their season is over, they know they’ll have a new OC and DC, they know the roster will be blown up and they now also have to deal with feuding QB’s to split the team even further. The Bills will pounce on the chance to beat the other state of NY AFC team for the first time in 6 tries and a win here would give them a 3rd place finish leaving the Jets in last.
PHIL’S FORECAST: BUFFALO 24 NY JETS 21

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By Phil Steele

Tennessee at Green Bay

Tough spot for Tennessee off a MN game vs the Jets and now travel to a playoff need GB team in cold weather. Tennessee lost 2 starting OL prior the Jets game and against 3-4 defenses they are 1-4 with the only win vs a tired PIT team travelling on Thursday. GB is 7-0 at home in Dec w/a 37-15 avg score prior to DET and they have a huge edge with Rodgers (255 ypg, 67%, 14-5 at home this year) vs the #18 pass defense w/a 24-10 ratio. I’m not worried about RB Johnson influencing the pace of the game here as GB has only allowed 76 ypg (3.7) vs foes w/a losing record this year. I also like the matchup of Capers w/a defense that is expected to get healthier vs a young QB here. I’ll call for the home team by 17.
PHIL’S FORECAST: GREEN BAY 30 TENNESSEE 13

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By Phil Steele

Baltimore at Washington

RG3 is off back-to-back nationally televised division games and his combined numbers vs the Cowboys and the Eagles were eye catching (252 ypg, 79%, 8-1) before last week’s 13-21-163 performance vs the Giants. The Ravens make this short trip down I-95 losing a potential AFC North clincher to their rivals and has fallen behind for homefield edge. They will still be looking for Parkway superiority as these players cross paths often. December football brings a different mentality and the Ravens have a veteran team led by a veteran QB who has led his team to 4 road wins this year throwing only 2 int in the L/5 games and has led them to the playoffs in each of his 4 seasons. The Ravens injury maligned D allowed 23 ppg their first 7 but since the bye and the return of Suggs they are #1 in the NFL the L5W allowing only 16.2 and also may see Ray Lewis in some spot duty. This is an example of learning to win versus knowing to win. Read more…

By Phil Steele

Oakland at Cincinnati

While most homecomings are warm, Carson Palmer’s won’t be after he refused to play for the Bengals giving this veteran a chance to vent his frustrations on the field. The Raiders just faced the rejuvenated Saints and were blown out 38-17 with basically even yardage. They must travel across the country again and while they lost 55-20 they outgained the Ravens 422-419 but were completely done in by Flacco’s play action to Rice as he completed TEN passes of 18+ yards. However, CIN’s rush attack at home is avg 81 ypg (3.4) which will not give Dalton the same benefit. The Bengals are off an upset vs the Giants and off a road win vs a 1-8 squad giving them confidence and I expect this one to go down to the wire as both will give max effort.

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By Phil Steele

Philadelphia at Washington

For the 3rd yr in a row the Redskins come off the bye week vs PHI. There were hints that teams may have figured out Griffin who was held to 196 ypg vs PIT/CAR (5.2 & 5.5 ypa’s) with just 61 total yards rushing. Both teams employed a power run style to wear down the Redskins defense as they allowed 140 (5.2) and 129 ypg (4.8) on the ground. WAS has struggled to pressure QB’s (#19 w/14) and teams have hit them for a 20-10 ratio so far. While Reid is now clearly on the “hot seat” his best attribute has been preparing his squad to travel on the NFC East road. The offenses are close, my ST rankings also have them close but the biggest difference is in the D. The Eagles stop unit has been bashed and went through a DC change but they are still #11 allowing 344 ypg and their last 6 opponents have offenses that ranked #11, #14, #2, #8, # 5 and #6. Despite being off 5 straight losses a division win can ease the pressure for a day or two and the players may finally reach their potential playing loose. Even if Vick is unable to go a change may not be the worst thing.

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ATLANTA AT WASHINGTON-  ATL beat WAS 31-17 at home in the last meeting in 2009. ATL has a major edge with Ryan (290 ypg, 69%, 11-2) and his elite WR duo on the perimeter of White (27 rec, 15.3) and Jones (16 rec, 13.7) vs the #31 pass defense allowing 8.8 ypa with an 11-5 ratio. ATL’s defense has also just faced a strong armed, mobile QB with Newton (215 yards passing, 63%, 2-0, 86 yards rush). The Skins new “East Coast” offense has put RG3 in position to have success as evidenced by WAS’s #5 scoring offense but they have faced 4 D’s that came into last week ranked #32, #19, #29 and #26. WAS had an easy time of it last week vs an overly conservative rookie HC still installing his system. While RG3 is dynamic none of WAS’s receiving targets has over 250 yards receiving so far. This is a major mismatch with a playoff level team having momentum against a rookie QB trying to bail out a beleaguered defense.

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As you know I’ve always spent about 90% of my time on college football but I am very excited about our NFL Magazine. I have the same desire to mirror my success of being college footballs “most accurate” magazine by becoming the most accurate NFL Magazine as well. In this years magazine (which is now available) I project each of the division races with records. I want to share just how much work and research goes into making these forecasts.

I’ve posted several articles on my blog including: repeating as a division champ and slipping and sliding can help you analyze a teams fortunes. These are just part of the research I do annually to make my predictions. The schedule is of course an important part of analyzing the upcoming season. Read more…

Last night the New Orleans Saints won their 1st Super Bowl in franchise history defeating the Indianapolis Colts 31-17 in Super Bowl XLIV. The Saints became the 1st team since the 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win a Super Bowl in their 1st appearance and just the 5th team to win one in their 1st appearance against a franchise with multiple appearances (5-15). QB Drew Brees completed 32 of 39 passes (82.1) for 288 yards and 2 TDs to tie the Super Bowl record for completions and won the game’s MVP honors.

KEY PLAY OF THE GAME – Late in the 4Q with the Colts driving for the game tying TD, Manning fired a pass to WR Wayne on a routine slant pattern that the Colts run several times every game. However, Saints DB Tracy Porter stepped in front of Wayne, gathered the ball in and raced 74 yards for a TD giving the Saints an insurmountable 31-17 lead with just 3:12 left. Read more…