Well here it is, my projected AP Top 10 for next year as of January 30, 2012! I will mention it now and I will mention it numerous times throughout today’s blog but this is not MY preseason Top 10 for next year, it is where I project the AP Top 10 to come out at the start of the season.

Most AP voters usually look at a couple of criteria when they evaluate a team for the upcoming season. First they look at the number of returning starters that the team has coming back particularly at the offensive skill positions. A team that returns its starting QB and a combination of its RB and WR’s is often times more highly thought of than a team that loses its starting QB but returns its entire offensive line. Similarly a team that returns most of its starters on offense but loses a lot of its defensive playmakers usually is more highly thought of than a team that returns a majority of its defensive starters but loses its skill position players on offense.

Another factor that is heavily weighted is the performance of the team in the bowl game, which undoubtedly is the lasting image of that team in the offseason. A team coming off a huge bowl win usually is more highly thought of than a team that is coming off a bowl loss regardless of what their schedule looks like for the upcoming season.

Using these criteria and a few more, I project the preseason AP Top 10 every year at the conclusion of the previous season, which in most cases is nearly 6 months in advance. Now as you all know, a lot can happen from January to August including injuries, suspensions, transfers, etc.

In 2009, my projected Top 10 for the AP Poll was #1 Florida, #2 Texas, #3 USC, #4 Oklahoma, #5 Alabama, #6 Virginia Tech, #7 LSU, #8 Oklahoma St, #9 Ohio St and #10 Mississippi. The actual AP Top 10 was #1 Florida, #2 Texas, #3 Oklahoma, #4 USC, #5 Alabama, #6 Ohio St, #7 Virginia Tech, #8 Mississippi and #9 was a tie between Oklahoma St/Penn St.

I nailed nine of the ten teams that appeared in the Preseason Top 10 with the only exception being LSU/Penn St and I may have had something to do with that. It’s interesting to note that of the main preseason magazines, only two had Penn St ranked in the Top 10 and I had them my #1 surprise team and ranked #5. Most had Penn St out of the Top 10. Perhaps since I had them rated so high in my magazine, it influenced a few voters across the country, bumping them into the Top 10.

In 2010 I projected the preseason AP Top 10 would be #1 Alabama, #2 Ohio St, #3 Boise St, #4 Oregon, #5 Texas, #6 TCU, #7 Iowa, #8 Florida, #9 Nebraska and #10 Virginia Tech.

The actual AP Top 10 was #1 Alabama, #2 Ohio St, #3 Boise St, #4 Florida, #5 Texas, #6 TCU, #7 Oklahoma, #8 Nebraska, #9 Iowa and #10 Virginia Tech.

For the second year in a row I nailed nine of the ten teams that appeared in the Preseason Top 10 with the only exception being Oregon/Oklahoma, which I can defend easily.

First, at the time I wrote my projection back in early February Duck QB Jeremiah Masoli was not yet suspended. With Masoli still in the fold at that point Oregon had 17 returning starters including RB LaMichael James and Masoli in the backfield. The Ducks clearly would have been a preseason Top 10 team and probably Top 5 had Masoli not been kicked off the team. Even without Masoli Oregon was still rated #11 in the preseason poll.

The team that I did not have in my projected AP Top 10 was Oklahoma (#7) and if you have purchased the 2010 magazine or listened to one of my radio shows across the country you know I thought very highly of the Sooners as I had them ranked #1. Like Penn St in 2009 perhaps since I had them rated so high in my magazine, it influenced a few voters across the country, bumping them into the Top 10 despite the Sooners having five losses in 2009 and the fact that they did not even finish in the final AP Top 25.

I also am pleased that six of the 10 teams were ranked in the exact position that I projected including the Top 3 in Alabama, Ohio St and Boise St. I also had Texas, TCU and Virginia Tech ranked in their exact positions in the poll.

Last year I projected the preseason AP Top 10 would be #1 Oklahoma, #2 Alabama, #3 Oregon, #4 LSU, #5 Stanford, #6 Texas A&M, #7 Boise St, #8 Florida St, #9 Oklahoma St and #10 South Carolina.

The actual AP Top 10 was #1 Oklahoma, #2 Alabama, #3 Oregon, #4 LSU, #5 Boise St, #6 Florida St, #7 Stanford, #8 Texas A&M, #9 Oklahoma St and #10 Nebraska.

For the third year in a row I nailed nine of the ten teams that appeared in the Preseason Top 10 with the only exception being South Carolina/Nebraska, which I can defend easily.

First, when I released my projection back in February of last year South Carolina QB Stephen Garcia was still on the team and was not suspended which would end up costing him the spring and summer with the team. With Garcia’s status up in the air at the time of the AP ballots being due in late July and early August, South Carolina was dropped a bit giving way to Nebraska. The Cornhuskers meanwhile were my pick to win the Big Ten in last year’s magazine which probably influenced a few voters as well.

Now let’s take a look at this year’s projected Preseason AP Top 10:

***#10 West Virginia-The Mountaineers get the nod here due to a dominating 70-33 Orange bowl win over Clemson. This year WVU returns 14 starters including QB Geno Smith who should be more comfortable in his 2^nd-year of Dana Holgorsen’s offense. The asterisk is put on them because at the time of this projection it is not sure whether the Mountaineers will play in the Big East or the Big 12 for 2012. If they remain in the Big East they will be the clear-cut favorites with an easier schedule but if they are joining the Big 12 for 2012, their schedule will be tougher and I would project South Carolina for the #10 spot.

 #9 Arkansas-The Razorbacks have had their most successful B2B seasons since 1988-89 going 22-5 the last two years. This year they return 13 starters including QB Tyler Wilson and will get back 2010 All-SEC RB Knile Davis who was out all of last season with an ankle injury. Last year the Razorbacks lost only two games to the top 2 teams in LSU and Alabama (both on the road) and this year the Crimson Tide and Tigers have to travel to Arkansas.

#8 Florida St-The Seminoles were a darkhorse pick for the National Title last year but an injury to QB Manuel saw the Noles drop to 2-3 at one point in the season. FSU would respond to win 7 of its last 8 games including wins over Florida and Notre Dame in the bowl to cap off the season and this year they return 15 starters including QB Manuel and defensive stars DL Jenkins and DB Reid. FSU looks to also bring in one of the best frosh classes in the country and should clearly be the favorites in the ACC.

#7 Michigan-The Wolverines were one of the biggest surprises in college football last year winning 11 games and a BCS Bowl under first-year HC Brady Hoke. This year they return 7 starters on offense led by QB Denard Robinson and RB Toussaint who should be more comfortable in the 2^nd-year of the new offense. UM also return 7 starters from a defense that allowed just 17.4 ppg (#6) which was nearly an 18 ppg improvement from 2010! Michigan finished #12 in the final AP poll and figure to be the favorites to win the Big Ten this year.

#6 Georgia-I was one of the few people in the country last year to pick Georgia to win the SEC East over South Carolina thanks to a favorable SEC slate that had them avoiding Arkansas, LSU and Alabama out of the West and the Bulldogs would not disappoint taking home the SEC East crown. This year they return 15 starters including QB Aaron Murray, leading rusher Isaiah Crowell, their top 2 rec’s and a 1^st-Team All-American candidate on D in OLB Jarvis Jones. Again the Bulldogs AVOID LSU, Alabama and Arkansas out of the SEC West and will be the favorites to repeat as SEC East Champs.

#5 Oklahoma-The Sooners were the preseason AP #1 team last year and clearly underachieved losing three games including a 44-10 beatdown in Bedlam. They did win their bowl game over Iowa, return 15 starters including QB Landry Jones who will play better than last year’s finish and HC Bob Stoops and the Sooners have won at least 10 games in a season 10 times since 2000!

#4 Oregon-The Ducks have become a fixture among the nation’s elite under HC Chip Kelly with 3 straight BCS appearances and last year captured their first Rose Bowl win since 1916! While QB Darron Thomas and RB LaMichael James are gone, their replacements are plenty capable as QB Bryan Bennett and RB’s Kenjon Barner and De’Anthony Thomas return with some valuable game experience and the Ducks do not open with a marquee non-conference game like they did last year vs LSU.

#3 Alabama-The Crimson Tide were my pick to win the National Title last year and they did just that avenging an earlier loss to LSU by dominating the Tigers in the BCS Championship game 21-0. This year the defending champs return 7 starters on offense led by QB AJ McCarron who played magnificently in the title game. While the defense returns only 4 starters from last year, keep in mind in 2010, the Tide returned only 2 defensive starters and were the Preseason AP #1 team!

#2 USC-Last year while the probation-stricken Trojans were not eligible to play in the Pac-12 title game, I picked them to be the best team in the South and clearly they were just that going 10-2 (7-2) beating their crosstown rival Bruins who were the de facto Pac-12 South Champs 50-0 in the regular season finale! The Trojans locked up their spot here with the surprising return of QB Matt Barkley who is clearly one of the Heisman favorites in 2012. He will have plenty of skill position talent surrounding him with his top 2 WR’s Robert Woods and Marqise Lee back and 1,000 yd rusher Curtis McNeal also returning.  A case could be made at the end of last season that no team in the country was hotter than USC winning 7 of their last 8 games with a 3OT loss to Stanford their only blemish. With 15 returning starters, the Trojans clearly will be one of the favorites to take home the crystal ball.

#1 LSU-Last year LSU was picked 2^nd in the SEC West behind Alabama and would go on to have arguably the best regular season in school history going 13-0 winning the SEC Championship and would beat EIGHT Top 25 teams! While the National Title loss to Alabama still stings, many of the Tigers’ star players return for 2012 including Heisman candidate DB Tyrann Mathieu along with their their top 4 rushers. Throw in QB Zach Mettenberger who Miles said last year was his best pure passing QB and a home game vs Alabama and the Tigers will be the favorites to win the National Title!

JUST MISSED OUT:

I mentioned at the start of the blog that last year I had nine of the top 10 teams correctly predicted and it was the same case in 2009 and 2010 where I also missed out by 1. If one of the team’s I have projected in the Top 10 doesn’t make the polls, there are some teams that have a shot at jumping into the Top 10.

This year I believe there is just one team with a shot and it is #11 South Carolina who could jump the Mountaineers depending on what conference WVU will be in for 2012. Also putting the Gamecocks here is the fact that if they are in the Top 10 that would mean 5 of those teams would be from the SEC. The Gamecocks do return 13 starters including QB Connor Shaw and get back RB Marcus Lattimore who missed the last six games with a knee injury. They also get last year’s SEC East winner Georgia at home.

There you have it – My projections for the AP Preseason Top 10. As mentioned a couple of times in this article, these WILL NOT BE THE TOP 10 IN MY MAGAZINE. As you know, I tend to go out on a limb in a lot of cases and have a lot of surprise picks in my magazine. Those will be unveiled at the start of June when my magazine hits the newsstands but when the first AP poll comes out in August this year, go ahead and take this list and compare it and you’ll find that probably 9 or maybe even all 10 will be in the Preseason AP Top 10 this year.

Over the weekend I released my projected preseason AP Top 10 and I thought I would analyze another set of rankings for the upcoming season. A couple of weeks ago, several casinos released their odds for the 2011-12 BCS National Championship. While PhilSteele.com does not affiliate itself with gambling, I do think it is interesting to see how Vegas is examining the upcoming season.

Here are the Top 10 Favorites to win the title this upcoming year courtesy of Bodog.com.

1. Oklahoma             Odds: 7/2

If you checked out my projected AP Top 10 blog, you would have read that the Sooners are clearly the favorite going into next season and the odds certainly agree here. They return 15 starters on off/def including QB Jones, WR Broyles and LB Lewis. Their schedule sets up nicely with a bye before their road trip to Florida St (a team they dominated LY 47-17). In Big 12 play naturally there is the Red River Rivalry game vs Texas who is coming off a 5-7 season and the only other huge hurdle could be the season finale at Oklahoma St but the Sooners have won the Bedlam rivalry 8 straight times and have an overall mark of 82-16-7 vs their in-state rivals.

2. Alabama             Odds: 15/2

The Crimson Tide were my projected AP #2 team for 2011. Despite the losses of QB McElroy, RB Ingram and WR Jones and DT/DE Dareus, the Tide return 15 starters including 9 from a defense that figures to be among the best in the country. While they do have road trips to Penn St, Florida and Auburn none of those teams figure to be in the preseason top 10 so they have a great opportunity of being favored in every game this season.

3. Florida St             Odds: 10/1

The Noles return 16 starters, bring in one of the best frosh classes in the country and should be the ACC favorites. However, their schedule is not soft by any means as they host pre-season favorite Oklahoma and travel to Florida in non-conf play and have to play ACC Atlantic foes Clemson and Boston College on the road.

4. Boise St             Odds: 12/1

The Broncos return 14 starters including QB Moore. While they do move to the MWC and open the season vs Georgia in Atlanta, the Broncos get defending MWC champ TCU at home (where they have not lost a reg ssn gm since 2001) also get defending CUSA champ Tulsa at home and will probably be favored to win 11 of their 12 games.

4. LSU              Odds: 12/1

The Tigers return 15 starters from a team that surprised many going 11-2 last year. While they open the season with a huge showdown vs Oregon in Arlington, the Tigers will probably be favored to win the rest of the games with the exception of a road trip to Alabama later in the season. Road trips to Mississippi St and West Virginia in September will be tricky as well.

6. Oregon            Odds: 14/1

This year the Ducks return just 11 starters on off/def but get QB Thomas and Doak Walker winner RB James back from a offense that avg’d 47 ppg. UO does have a monster non-conf game vs LSU in the opener and have road trips to Arizona, Washington and Stanford but still will be the preseason favorite to win the Pac-10 for a third straight season.

7. Florida            Odds: 15/1

This one is a bit of a surprise since the Gators are coming off just an 8-5 season and have a new HC in Will Muschamp. UF does return 13 starters and have a lot of talent on hand thanks to some outstanding recruiting. However, rheir three-game stretch to start off October is as challenging as team will face during any stretch. (Bama, at LSU, at Auburn).

8. Nebraska      Odds: 18/1

It will be an interesting year for the Huskers as they move to the Big 10. They do return just 12 starters from last year’s team that again came up just short of the Big 12 title. One of the starters back is QB Martinez. As far as their schedule goes, the conference did them no favors with road games at Wisconsin, Penn St and Michigan along with home games vs Ohio St and Michigan.

9.  Penn St            Odds: 20/1

Another interesting pick here as the Nittany Lions are coming off just a 7-6 season. They do return 15 starters and their QB situation should be in much better shape this year. Home games vs Alabama and Iowa are their biggest tests before a 3 game stretch to close the season vs Nebraska, at Ohio St and at Wisconsin.

10. TCU            Odds: 20/1

The Horned Frogs are here naturally because of their great success over the past several seasons but they do return just 8 starters on off/def and lose their leader in QB Andy Dalton. Their schedule is not yet finalized as they are missing a couple of non-conf games but their biggest test looks to be a road game at Boise.

Here are some other odds:

Well here it is, my projected AP Top 10 for next year as of February 11, 2011! I will mention it now and I will mention it numerous times throughout today’s blog but this is not MY preseason Top 10 for next year, it is where I project the AP Top 10 to come out at the start of the season.

Most AP voters usually look at a couple of criteria when they evaluate a team for the upcoming season. First they look at the number of returning starters that the team has coming back particularly at the offensive skill positions. A team that returns its starting QB and a combination of its RB and WRs is often times more highly thought of than a team that loses its starting QB but returns its entire offensive line. Similarly a team that returns most of its starters on offense but loses a lot of its defensive playmakers usually is more highly thought of than a team that returns a majority of its defensive starters but loses its skill position players on offense.

Another factor that is heavily weighted is the performance of the team in the bowl game, which undoubtedly is the lasting image of that team in the offseason. A team coming off a huge bowl win usually is more highly thought of than a team that is coming off a bowl loss regardless of what their schedule looks like for the upcoming season.

Using these criteria and a few more, I project the preseason AP Top 10 every year at the conclusion of the previous season, which in most cases is nearly 6 months in advance. Now as you all know, a lot can happen from January to August including injuries, suspensions, transfers, etc.

In 2009, my projected Top 10 for the AP Poll was #1 Florida, #2 Texas, #3 USC, #4 Oklahoma, #5 Alabama, #6 Virginia Tech, #7 LSU, #8 Oklahoma St, #9 Ohio St and #10 Mississippi. The actual AP Top 10 was #1 Florida, #2 Texas, #3 Oklahoma, #4 USC, #5 Alabama, #6 Ohio St, #7 Virginia Tech, #8 Mississippi and #9 was a tie between Oklahoma St/Penn St.

I nailed nine of the ten teams that appeared in the Preseason Top 10 with the only exception being LSU/Penn St and I may have had something to do with that. It’s interesting to note that of the main preseason magazines, only two had Penn St ranked in the Top 10 and I had them my #1 surprise team and ranked #5. Most had Penn St out of the Top 10. Perhaps since I had them rated so high in my magazine, it influenced a few voters across the country, bumping them into the Top 10.

Last year I projected the preseason AP Top 10 would be #1 Alabama, #2 Ohio St, #3 Boise St, #4 Oregon, #5 Texas, #6 TCU, #7 Iowa, #8 Florida, #9 Nebraska and #10 Virginia Tech.

The actual AP Top 10 was #1 Alabama, #2 Ohio St, #3 Boise St, #4 Florida, #5 Texas, #6 TCU, #7 Oklahoma, #8 Nebraska, #9 Iowa and #10 Virginia Tech.

For the second year in a row I nailed nine of the ten teams that appeared in the Preseason Top 10 with the only exception being Oregon/Oklahoma, which I can defend easily.

First, at the time I wrote my projection back in early February Duck QB Jeremiah Masoli was not yet suspended. With Masoli still in the fold at that point Oregon had 17 returning starters including RB LaMichael James and Masoli in the backfield. The Ducks clearly would have been a preseason Top 10 team and probably Top 5 had Masoli not been kicked off the team. Even without Masoli Oregon was still rated #11 in the preseason poll.

The team that I did not have in my projected AP Top 10 was Oklahoma (#7) and if you have purchased last year’s magazine or listed to one of my radio shows across the country you know I thought very highly of the Sooners as I had them ranked #1. Like Penn St last year perhaps since I had them rated so high in my magazine, it influenced a few voters across the country, bumping them into the Top 10 despite the Sooners having five losses in 2009 and the fact that they did not even finish in the final AP Top 25.

I also am pleased that six of the 10 teams were ranked in the exact position that I projected including the top 3 in Alabama, Ohio St and Boise St. I also had Texas, TCU and Virginia Tech ranked in their exact positions in the poll.
Now let’s take a look at this year’s projected Preseason AP Top 10:

#10 SOUTH CAROLINA-Last year the Gamecocks returned 16 starters (#2 SEC) and had only 11 lettermen lost. They also signed one of the best frosh classes ever which included my PS#1 RB Marcus Lattimore. In my magazine I said that SC was a legit SEC contender and they even made my list of Surprise Teams (darkhorse national title contender).  They didn’t disappoint beating #1 defending champ Alabama at home and getting a key win on the road vs Florida as SC made their first appearance in the SEC Champ game. They did finish the season with consecutive losses but this year return 7 starters on offense including QB Garcia and RB Lattimore and figure to be the favorites to repeat as SEC East Division champs.

#9 OKLAHOMA ST-Last year the Cowboys were one of the least experienced teams in the entire country coming into the season with just 8 returning starters. However, HC Gundy did an outstanding job leading them to their most wins in a season in school history and this year despite the loss of OC Holgorsen and RB Hunter, the Cowboys return 9 starters including QB Weeden and Biletnikoff winner Blackmon from an offense that avg’d 44 ppg. The Cowboys do have tough road games at Texas A&M, Texas, Texas Tech and Missouri and that is why they will not be ranked even higher in the preseason AP Poll.
#8 FLORIDA ST-HC Fisher inherited a good situation last year as they were loaded on offense with 9 returning starters and they got most of their toughest ACC foes at home. 7 of my 9 sets of power ratings called for their first double digit win season since 2003 and they did just that beating in-state rival Florida, getting to the ACC champ game and then beating South Carolina in the bowl game. This year they return 16 starters, bring in one of the best frosh classes in the country and should be the ACC favorites.

#7 BOISE ST-Last year the Broncos were one of the most experienced teams in the country with 20 returning starters and started out #3 in the AP Poll. A win over Virginia Tech in the opener had them thinking national title but a heartbreaking loss to Nevada in OT late in the year cost them a BCS Bid. Nonetheless they still won 12+ games for the third year in a row and this year return 14 starters including QB Moore. While they do move to the MWC and open the season vs Georgia in Atlanta, the Broncos get defending MWC champ TCU at home (where they have not lost a reg ssn gm since 2001) and will probably be favored to win 11 of their 12 games.

#6 TEXAS A&M-Last year I thought the Aggies were a much stronger team than their previous seasons and they made my Most Improved List. After struggling to a 3-3 start HC Sherman made the bold move to bench QB Johnson for backup Tannehill and the Aggies preceded to roll off 6 straight wins including wins over Big 12 powers Oklahoma, Nebraska and Texas en route to only their second 9 win season since 2000. This year they bring back 17 starters on off/def including Tannehill and get Oklahoma St, Missouri and Texas at home.

#5 STANFORD-Last year 3 of my 9 sets of power ratings called for an 11-1 season and after my magazine was published in May, the Cardinal were one of the teams that I thought probably should have been higher in my ratings in my mag come late August. Led by QB Luck, the Cardinal simply went out and had one of their best seasons in school history finishing 12-1 with a dominating win over Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl. This year the Cardinal lose HC Harbaugh to the 49ers but will still be a AP top 5 pick because Luck surprisingly decided to come back for another year and he is probably not only one of the Heisman favorites but also the top NFL prospect in college this year.

#4 LSU-Last year the Tigers returned just 10 starters but surprised many finishing the season 11-2 with a dominating win over Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl. This year they return 8 starters from an offense that avg’d 30 ppg including QB Jefferson who improved his play down the stretch. While they open the season with a huge showdown vs Oregon in Arlington, the Tigers will probably be favored to win the rest of the games with the exception of a road trip to Alabama later in the season.

#3 OREGON-Last year 8 of my 9 sets of power ratings called the Ducks the best team in the Pac-10 and they didn’t disappoint running through their regular season a perfect 12-0 before losing a heartbreaker in the national title game to Auburn. This year the Ducks return just 11 starters on off/def but get QB Thomas and Doak Walker winner RB James back from a offense that avg’d 47 ppg. UO does have a monster non-conf game vs LSU in the opener and have road trips to Arizona, Washington and Stanford but still will be the preseason favorite to win the Pac-10 for a third straight season.

#2 ALABAMA-Last year the Crimson Tide were coming off B2B 12-0 regular seasons and anything less than a repeat national title was going to be a disappointment. While the Tide did finish just 10-3, when they were playing their “A” game as evidence of the 1H of the Auburn game and the Capital One bowl vs 11-1 Michigan St, they were clearly one of the best teams in the country. This year despite the losses of QB McElroy, RB Ingram and WR Jones, the Tide return 15 starters including 9 from a defense that figures to be among the best in the country. While they do have road trips to Penn St, Florida and Auburn none of those teams figure to be in the preseason top 10 so they have a great opportunity of being favored in every game this season.

#1 OKLAHOMA-Last year I surprised many by ranking the Sooners as my #1 team in my pre-season magazine despite coming off a 5-loss season in 2009. While they did not win the national title, the Sooners did go 12-2 winning the Big 12 title and dominated UConn in the Fiesta Bowl. This year OU will be ranked #1 in the pre-season by nearly everyone as they return 15 starters on off/def including QB Jones, WR Broyles and LB Lewis. Their schedule sets up nicely with a bye before their road trip to Florida St (a team they dominated LY 47-17). In Big 12 play naturally there is the Red River Rivalry game vs Texas who is coming off a 5-7 season and the only other huge hurdle could be the season finale at Oklahoma St but the Sooners have won the Bedlam rivalry 8 straight times and have an overall mark of 82-16-7 vs their in-state rivals. With their key returning starters back and a favorable schedule, the Sooners should get the nod as the Preseason AP #1 team!

THOSE THAT JUST MISSED OUT:

I mentioned at the start of the blog that last year I had nine of the top 10 teams correctly predicted and it was the same case in 2009 where I also missed out by 1. If one of the team’s I have projected in the Top 10 doesn’t make the polls, there are 4 teams that have a shot at jumping into the Top 10.

Right now, I would project Ohio State to be #11 heading into the season and the only reason they are this low is the fact that several of their key players including QB Pryor and their top RB and WR will miss the first 5 games. Also their first game back is a road trip to Nebraska but I still feel with their strong finish to the 2010 season and the fact that they have won or shared 6 straight Big 10 titles will get them the nod over the Cornhuskers.

At #12 in the AP poll should be Nebraska who returns QB Martinez and 7 starters on defense. Nebraska would have been higher but there has been some turmoil already this past off-season and they were unimpressive in their bowl game.

The rest of the teams are #13 Arkansas and #14 Wisconsin.

There you have it – My projections for the AP Preseason Top 10. As mentioned a couple of times in this article, these WILL NOT BE THE TOP 10 IN MY MAGAZINE. As you know, I tend to go out on a limb in a lot of cases and have a lot of surprise picks in my magazine. Those will be unveiled at the start of June when my magazine hits the newsstands but when the first AP poll comes out in August this year, go ahead and take this list and compare it and you’ll find that probably 9 or maybe even all 10 will be in the Preseason AP Top 10 this year.

The AP Poll was released over the weekend and today I can officially come up with Overrated and Underrated teams for the upcoming year.

First, here is the Preseason AP Top 25.

Overrated Teams

#5 Texas-I think the Top 10 is reasonably legitimate and the Longhorns are once again one of the most talented teams in the country and they have my #1 defense. They do face my #5 team Nebraska in Lincoln and my #1 team Oklahoma in Dallas, but will be a solid favorite in all of the rest of their games. They do lose a 4-year starting QB in Colt McCoy, their top WR in Jordan Shipley and have not really had a feature RB since Jamaal Charles (’07), so there are some questions on offense. While I think it will be another solid season for the Longhorns I think a Top 5 finish as projected by the AP is a bit of a reach this year.

#12 Wisconsin-The Badgers are coming off a 10-win season and are a much more veteran team this year. Many of my sets of power ratings have them slightly ahead of Iowa but they have to play the Hawkeyes on the road and get #2 Ohio St at home. They do avoid Penn St but the Michigan and Michigan St road trips will be much tougher than most suspect. While 5 of my 9 sets of ratings call for a double digit win season, I think another Top 15 ranking will be tough to duplicate.

#15 Pittsburgh-When I list my rankings in the magazine, they are my end of season rankings and I have Pittsburgh #27. I do have the Panthers winning the Big East title by beating West Virginia at home which would give them the tie-breaker. However, they have just 11 returning starters and have to face Utah and Notre Dame on the road and Miami, Fl at home in non-conference play. By winning the conference, I have them playing in the Fiesta Bowl against Nebraska, but I think the Panthers could have four losses at the end of the year.

#16 Georgia Tech-Paul Johnson is a great coach and last year I undervalued the Yellow Jackets and paid the price as they not only won the Coastal, but won the ACC Title outright. This year they have to play Clemson, Virginia Tech, North Carolina and Georgia all on the road and Miami at home in which the Yellow Jackets could be a underdog in each game. Despite the tough schedule, they have 14 returning starters and could make me pay again for picking them 4th in the Coastal this year.

#21 LSU-The talent is there for LSU to contend for the SEC West Title and even knock off Alabama at home. They do have to play SIX teams in my Top 25 (#10 schedule) and only have 10 returning starters. Keep in my mind LY they went 9-4 but were outgained on the year 328-305. This is a talented squad with my #19 rated defense and a lot of VHT’s on offense but with the schedule they could find it tough matching last year’s 9 regular season wins and could finish out of the Top 25 for the second time in 3 years.

Underrated Teams

#7 Oklahoma-The last time the Sooners came off a 5 loss season was 2000 which is the last time they won the National Title!  While they lost 7 players to the draft including four 1st-rounders, two of the top draftees (Bradford and Gresham) did not really play. Last year despite their 5-3 Big 12 record, the Sooners’ +133 ypg was the league’s best. They also had 42 starts lost to injury (tied #3 FBS) and had 3 net close losses. This year they are in much better shape on the offensive line, QB Landry Jones has a year under his belt and all 9 sets of my power ratings call for an unbeaten season. With all these factors added up, the Sooners are my pick to win the National Title in 2010!

#22 Auburn-Many Auburn fans were not happy when HC Gene Chizik was hired (just 5-19 at Iowa St) but I thought he did a solid job here last year guiding the Tigers to a 8-5 record including a New Year’s Day Bowl win. This year Auburn has 15 returning starters and are in the second year of Chizik’s system. The schedule also sets up nicely for them as they get 4 key SEC games at home and my main set of power ratings calls for an 11-1 season with an 11-0 vs 11-0 showdown vs Alabama in the Iron Bowl. The Tigers will easily top LY’s 8 win total and I have them finishing #15.

Notre Dame-HC Brian Kelly gets the most out of the talent on hand and he is the first coach in the history of my magazine to have his team finish higher than I projected them in SIX straight years (including 3 conference titles). He inherits a lot of talent here with 14 returning starters including All-American candidates WR Floyd and TE Rudolph. He does have a new QB in Crist but remember Kelly won a BE title with 5 different QBs in 2008. I feel the Irish have clearly underachieved the last 3 seasons and I think they could be in store for 9 wins or more this year.

South Carolina-This could finally be the year Steve Spurrier envisioned when he came to Columbia. The Gamecocks have 16 returning starters and are one of the top teams in the SEC. They have my #3 rated defense and lose just 11 letterman. This year they do have to play Florida on the road and draw Alabama from the West but it would not surprise me if Spurrier had the team in the SEC Title game this year despite facing the 2nd toughest schedule in the country.

Houston-They Cougars have one of the best offenses in the country with QB Case Keenum, three 1,000 yd receivers and RB Beall who has nearly 2,000 yds in his 1st two seasons. Houston also should have an improved defense this year with 6 starters back including three of the top 4 returning tacklers. Not only are the Cougars my pick for the CUSA title, but 2 of my 9 sets of power ratings call for an undefeated season with winnable road games at UCLA and Texas Tech.

Arizona-My magazine is the only one in the country to have the Wildcats in the Top 25 and they are a legitimate Pac-10 title contender. Arizona could have easily won the conference title last year but had a pair of 3 pt losses and came up just short. While they only have 4 starters back on defense, they only lose 17 letterman and will have a potent offense. They get 5 Pac-10 home games and a road trip to Washington St. I will call for them to have their most wins since 1998 and have a shot at their 1st ever Rose bowl which would make a great story.

Only 9 Days Until The First College Football Game!!!

The college football season is fast approaching and in today’s blog I will give you a sneak peak at some of the early marquee college football non-conference games and how I think they will shake out as of right now. Also included is your current voting tallies for each of these games.

Remember if you visit the homepage right now, you can get a head start on voting in the Non-Conference Poll with all the non-conference games. To see where you rank against other voters, as soon as your vote is entered in, you will see the % stacked with or against you. In the next day or two the four remaining non-BCS conferences will be added on the front page. The Non-Conference Poll will run until Sunday, Aug 29th. On Monday the 30th, look for the Weekly Polls to start. There are games every day Thursday September 2nd thru Monday September 6th as the first week of the season looks to kick off with a bang! Weekly prizes will be awarded throughout the season.

Marquee Early Non-Conference Match-ups
With Your Current Voting % on Top

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Pitt at Utah Sept 2nd. Utah won in the 2004 Fiesta Bowl 35-7 (only previous meeting). Pitt is #107 in my Experience Chart (page 311 of TY’s mag) while Utah is #57. Utah’s altitude edge is expanded because they have been home all month. Pitt has a young QB and O-Line making their first road starts at night in front of a loud and enthusiastic crowd. Utah is 17-1 at home the last 3 yrs and will be fired up for this one. Utah 27-24.

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Connecticut at Michigan Sept 4th. Michigan is expanding the stadium and in doing so it is more enclosed and will be louder, holding in more sound. Rich Rod was 4-0 vs Connecticut in Big East play and is in the 3rd year at Michigan, which is usually a break thru season. Michigan was 5-2 at one point last year and this is a MUST win for UM. Michigan 27-24.

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Oregon St vs TCU Sept 4th. (Arlington) Texas is not a neutral site for these teams however three things have been very consistent under Mike Riley: 1. They usually finish higher in the Pac 10 than what I forecast 2. Experienced QB’s fare much better than 1st year QB’s in his system and 3. Oregon St struggles on the road the first month of the season. TCU is legit and will be sky high for a BCS conference foe led by a 1st year QB. TCU 27-13.

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LSU vs North Carolina (Atlanta) Sept 4. Great battle between the SEC vs ACC. LSU was actually outgained last year 305-328 despite their 9 wins. North Carolina meanwhile was 8-5 but had a 308-270 yd edge on the year. NC has 19 returning starters and their defense is LOADED with NFL prospects (could have 5 picks in 1st or 2nd round). LSU only has 10 returning starters so they are less experienced. I will call for the upset. NC 17-13.

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Boise St vs Virginia Tech Sept 6th. This is a true national title elimination game and both deserve to be in the Top 10. While this is a “neutral” site it is right in VT’s back yard and Boise must fly across the country. VT has a tremendous backfield and being the lower ranked team will feel like the underdog. Last year they whipped Miami, Fla in a similar situation. Virginia Tech 30-27.

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Michigan at Notre Dame Sept 11th. There have been 6 straight outright upsets when these two meet in South Bend! UM is just 2-8 in road openers. Last year Michigan got a TD with :11 left to pull the upset at home. It is my #3 Most Improved team vs my #5 MIP team. UM rates a slight edge on offense while ND has the defense and home edges. Notre Dame 31-27.

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Florida St at Oklahoma Sept 11. Both teams have explosive offenses but OU has a huge edge on defense as they allowed just 273 ypg in ’09 and lose 11 letterman with 5 starters back and FSU allowed 435 ypg and lose 12 letterman (6 starters back). FSU was out gained by an avg of 421-435 last year while OU even in an 8-5 year had a 424-273 yard edge. OU is 61-2 at home this past decade and FSU is on a 4-9 run vs ranked tms. OKLAHOMA 37-27.

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Miami Fla at Ohio St Sept 11. Miami only had one unit not in my top units in the front of the magazine and that was Offensive line but they just added PS#1 Henderson from USC. Two exciting QB’s and top 6 defenses. My picks to win the ACC and the Big Ten. Shannon is 4-7 vs ranked teams while Tressell is 31-14 and Ohio St is at home for this. OHIO STATE 30-20.

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Oregon at Tennessee Sept 11th. Tennessee has the large edge of the heat and humidity of the South vs a team from the Northwest. Oregon has the edge of having a much deeper and experienced team with 17 returning starters from last year’s Rose bowl squad. Tennessee has their 3rd HC in 3 years and suffered a lot of attrition and has just 9 returning starters. UT takes it to the wire but…OREGON 27-20.

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Penn State at Alabama Sept 11. Penn St has 6 units that rank in my top units of the front of the magazine and Bama does have just 2 returning starters on D. The key here is Penn St has a QB making his first road start vs a Top 10 D in front of a loud home crowd. Alabama 30-20.

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Arizona St at Wisconsin Sept 18. The Badgers are loaded this year with 16 returning starters from a 10-3 #14 squad that dominated Miami in the bowl game. Arizona St was just 4-8 last year and has just 9 returning starters BUT their defense was #13 in the country last year allowing just 298 ypg! This wont be the mismatch most expect but UW at home wins 28-18.

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Clemson at Auburn Sept 18 – Less than 250 miles apart. Clemson faced two weak teams and has a bye on deck so this is their “A” game for September while Auburn is in an SEC sandwich. Auburn is #26 in my experience chart and Clemson is #56. Auburn is #22 in my Power Poll (and at home) and Clemson #36 and is replacing Spiller and Ford, their two game breakers. AUBURN 30-27.

Only 15 Days Until the First College Football Game!!

Today’s blog will continue with my series of analyzing the most/leas improved units over the last 20 years. Each day this week I will have a new offensive or defensive statistical category to examine and today I will breakdown total defensive yards.

There are many factors that contribute to a significant change in pass defense. First, a team may see significant improvement if they return a bunch of experienced starters especially in the defensive backfield. Naturally a team that loses a bunch of starters especially their cornerbacks and safeties could see a significant drop in pass defense.

Another factor maybe how many starters are back on the defensive line. In many cases the ability to put pressure on a quarterback on a consistent basis determines the overall success of the pass defense. If a team cannot put pressure on a quarterback and the QB is given ample time to find an open receiver, it does not matter how good a defensive secondary is.

Finally, the way a team performs in allowing rush yards plays a big part. For example, if a defense is allowing a lot of yards rushing, their pass defense numbers may be better since teams are less likely to throw when they are already controlling the line of scrimmage. Also teams that score a lot of points offensively may allow a lot of defensive pass yards since teams will be trying to play catch up on the scoreboard. 

Whatever the case may be here are all the teams that improved by at least 100 ypg of pass defense compared to the prior season. Quick note for many of the smaller schools in the WAC, MAC and Sun Belt: My data only goes back to 1995 for those teams so it would include the last 15 years instead of the last 20.

Most Improved Pass Defense YPG L/20 Years

The most improved pass defense of the last 20 years was Chuck Amato’s 2004 NC State Wolfpack. In 2003 the Wolfpack returned just four starters from a 2002 defense that gave up just 17.0 ppg and 176 pass ypg. However, NC State fell dramatically to allow 284 pass ypg and 29.6 ppg. In 2004, the Wolfpack returned 9 starters and their numbers improved significantly allowing just 119 pass ypg, a 165 ypg improvement.

At #2 is the 2002 LSU Tigers. That year the Tigers returned 7 starters from a 2001 underperforming defense that gave up 281 pass ypg. However, in 2002 those numbers improved significantly as they allowed just 153 pass ypg.

At #3 is the 1997 Wyoming Cowboys who had a new coach in Dana Dimel who gave more attention to the defensive side of the ball and the Cowboys improved to allow 119 pass ypg less than the year before.

Now here is a look at all of the teams who gave up at least 100 pass ypg more than the prior year. Keep in mind again that my data only goes back to 1995 for some of the smaller schools.

Least Improved Pass Defense YPG L/20 Years

The least improved pass defense of the last 20 years is the 2003 Mississippi St Bulldogs who in Jackie Sherrill’s final year gave up 283 pass ypg which were the most in his 13 years at the helm and 129 ypg more than his ’02 sqaud.

The #2 least improved pass defense is the 1996 UNLV Rebels who returned just 5 starters back from a defense that allowed 152 pass ypg in 1995. In ’96, the Rebels gave up 274 pass ypg and overall allowed an incredible 544 total ypg and 45.9 ppg!

The #3 least improved pass defense is the 1998 Memphis Tigers who returned 8 starters from a defense that allowed 162 pass ypg in ’97. Shockingly, the Tigers would allow 281 pass ypg in ’98 but would improved the following year by 111 ypg.

Make sure you visit the PhilSteele.com homepage and check out several of the new features added in the past week including Phil Steele Videos, Players Lost for the Season, Facebook Forecasts and a Week-by-Week Schedule complete with up-to-date TV times.

I will be back on tomorrow with a look at the most/least improved total defenses from the last 20 years.

Only 38 Days Until the First College Football Game!!

Many of you have asked me for an updated Bowl Projections listing since USC was eliminated from bowl contention recently. In the magazine which went to press before the NCAA’s ruling I projected the Trojans to go to the Rose Bowl. Naturally most of my Pac-10 selections for bowls have changed with the ineligibility of USC. Oregon now gets my pick to go to the Rose Bowl and a lot of the other Pac-10 teams get bumped up. Here are my current projections for all 35 of this year’s bowl games which includes the BCS Championship game.

2010-2011 Bowl Schedule and Projections

For the next two weeks, I will be taking a look at the conference teams of the decade for 2000-2009. Factored into my analysis will be conference win %, conference and division titles, bowl games and bowl wins. I will also include BCS bowl wins, final AP rankings and number of national championships for the major conferences. There have been several teams who have changed conferences during that time and I will include them in the analysis for any season(s) they were affiliated with that certain conference. I will also be doing a breakdown of how the conference did in bowl games during the decade and I will emphasis the overall win/loss record, the number of BCS bowl wins, and the records against Non-BCS and ranked bowl teams.

While some conferences may have no-brainers as the top team, other conferences were very competitive over the past decade. Here is the schedule for the upcoming week with the conferences I will be analyzing on each date.

June 28 Sun Belt 
June 29 MAC 
June 30 WAC 
July 1 CUSA 
July 2 MWC 
July 3-4 Big East 
Monday Pac-10 
Tuesday ACC 
Wednesday Big 12 
Yesterday Big 10 
Today SEC 
Weekend Conference Bowl Records

The SEC has dominated college football in the past decade and is an automatic answer when anyone asks me what the best conference is. The SEC has now won four straight National Titles and had five total in the past decade. In the past 10 years several great coaching hires have made this conference so strong with four of the current coaches having won a national title and six of them have at least one BCS Bowl win at some point in their career. This year looks like it will be another strong year for the conference and the big question is can the SEC make it 5 straight National Titles?

But for now let’s look back at the previous decade and here are my overall rankings for SEC team of the decade.

SEC Rankings 2000-2009

Rk	Team	Wins	Losses	Win %	Titles	Div Titles	# of Bowls	Bowl Wins	AP Top 25	AP Top 10	BCS Bowl Wins	Natl Champ
1	Florida	61	19	76.30%	3	4	10	5	8	5	4	2
2	LSU	55	25	68.80%	3	4	10	7	8	5	4	2
3	Georgia	55	25	68.80%	2	3	10	8	9	5	2	0
4	Auburn	52	28	65%	1	2	9	6	6	2	1	0
5	Alabama	46	34	57.50%	1	2	7	4	4	3	1	1
6	Tennessee	51	29	63.80%	0	3	8	3	5	1	0	0

This was a tough call for me as Florida and LSU both had three overall conference titles, 4 division titles, 10 bowls, 8 AP Top 25 finishes, 5 Top 10’s, 4 BCS Bowl wins and 2 national titles. One could make an argument that these two teams were the top programs in all of the country for the past decade (USC, Oklahoma, Texas and Ohio St are the others). While LSU fared better in bowl games, Florida had six more conference wins and were 6-4 in head-to-head matchups vs the Tigers (avg score 26-17) so they get my nod for SEC team of the decade!

Coming in at #3 is Georgia who clearly was ahead of the other schools with two overall titles, 3 division titles, 9 AP Top 25 finishes (#1 SEC), 5 AP Top 10’s and 2 BCS wins. While he is currently feeling some heat after finishing 8-5 LY, HC Mark Richt has done a good job here and I think they will top LY’s win total and they are prime contenders in the SEC East.

At #4 is Auburn who had an impressive 65% win % in league play and went to 9 bowl games. The Tigers grabbed an overall title in 2004 and came up just short of the national title. The Tigers get the nod over Alabama here because of their 7-3 record head-to-head (including six straight from 2002-2007) and they won six more games than the Tide in conference play. #5 Alabama has really come on strong the last couple of years going 16-0 in regular season conference play. The Tide would have finished higher but remember they did have six seasons where they finished .500 or below in conference play.

In the 90s Tennessee probably would have finished #2 in my rankings behind Florida. In the past decade however the Vols have slipped a little and despite having five more wins in conference play than the Crimson Tide, Tennessee gets my #6 vote. While they did appear in 8 bowl games, none of them were a BCS bowl and they had just one appearance in the final AP Top 10. With that being said there are a lot of programs that would love to have a 63.8% win % in the tough SEC and I think new HC Dooley will do a great job here.

Here are the overall bowl records for SEC teams during the past decade.

SEC Bowl Records ’00-’09

As you can see above, the SEC has been very impressive in bowl games the last ten years with an overall 60.8% win % including a 65.3% mark against ranked teams. Their 12-3 (80%) records in BCS games is outstanding and is just another key factor in the conference being the strongest in the country. There were several teams that fared well in bowl games led by Georgia who was 8-2 overall and 6-1 vs ranked teams. LSU was 7-3 overall in bowl games and were a perfect 4-0 in BCS bowls. Mississippi went 4-1 overall including an impressive 3-0 mark vs ranked teams.

Tomorrow I will take a look at all the conference’s bowl records and rank which conferences did best overall in the past decade.

We just posted my 2010 FCS All-Conference and All-American teams on the homepage yesterday and if you want to see if your favorite local team has any players on make sure to download them. Also please check PhilSteele.com everyday to get my FCS Top 25 Countdown, which continues with #12 Stephen F Austin. Thru July 20th, I will post both magazine pages on a new team ranked in the Top 25 and you can get an early look on how I breakdown your favorite FCS team. Remember those magazine pages are available for only 24 hours for you to download as the next team will be posted the following day.

Only 55 Days Until the First College Football Game!!!