By Phil Steele

NY Jets at Buffalo

Rex Ryan ensured that the Jets would again be on the front page of every NY paper promoting McElroy as the starting QB. He was 14-24 with a 0-1 ratio vs San Diego and his struggles to make the correct reads were obvious as he was sacked 11 times. Now Ryan is going back to Sanchez in this one. These two also faced off in the season opener with the Jets winning 48-28 and after that explosion NY avg’d just 16 ppg the rest of the way. Buffalo is off a loss at Miami and while they only totaled 7 pts they won the yardage battle 381-301 but were -4 TO’s. The Jets know their season is over, they know they’ll have a new OC and DC, they know the roster will be blown up and they now also have to deal with feuding QB’s to split the team even further. The Bills will pounce on the chance to beat the other state of NY AFC team for the first time in 6 tries and a win here would give them a 3rd place finish leaving the Jets in last.
PHIL’S FORECAST: BUFFALO 24 NY JETS 21

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By Phil Steele

Tennessee at Green Bay

Tough spot for Tennessee off a MN game vs the Jets and now travel to a playoff need GB team in cold weather. Tennessee lost 2 starting OL prior the Jets game and against 3-4 defenses they are 1-4 with the only win vs a tired PIT team travelling on Thursday. GB is 7-0 at home in Dec w/a 37-15 avg score prior to DET and they have a huge edge with Rodgers (255 ypg, 67%, 14-5 at home this year) vs the #18 pass defense w/a 24-10 ratio. I’m not worried about RB Johnson influencing the pace of the game here as GB has only allowed 76 ypg (3.7) vs foes w/a losing record this year. I also like the matchup of Capers w/a defense that is expected to get healthier vs a young QB here. I’ll call for the home team by 17.
PHIL’S FORECAST: GREEN BAY 30 TENNESSEE 13

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By Phil Steele

Baltimore at Washington

RG3 is off back-to-back nationally televised division games and his combined numbers vs the Cowboys and the Eagles were eye catching (252 ypg, 79%, 8-1) before last week’s 13-21-163 performance vs the Giants. The Ravens make this short trip down I-95 losing a potential AFC North clincher to their rivals and has fallen behind for homefield edge. They will still be looking for Parkway superiority as these players cross paths often. December football brings a different mentality and the Ravens have a veteran team led by a veteran QB who has led his team to 4 road wins this year throwing only 2 int in the L/5 games and has led them to the playoffs in each of his 4 seasons. The Ravens injury maligned D allowed 23 ppg their first 7 but since the bye and the return of Suggs they are #1 in the NFL the L5W allowing only 16.2 and also may see Ray Lewis in some spot duty. This is an example of learning to win versus knowing to win. Read more…

By Phil Steele

GAMES NOTES:
Akron gave Toledo a game. In fact, leading 3-0 they brought in backup QB Pole on the 3rd series and Pole led them 81/14pl and UA took a 10-0 lead with 14:03 left in the 2Q. The drive began when UT was SOD on 4&2 at their 19. UT went 75/6pl and 85/8pl. Austin Dantin hit a 55 yd td pass to Pasquale and finished 29-35-327 yds. UA answered with an 81/7pl drive for a td with 5:44 left, 17-14. UT punted on their next poss but then took the momentum going 77/5pl for a td with 1:37 left in the half. At the half UT had a 295-257 yd edge. The 3Q opened with 3 punts. UA then went 46/17pl but were SOD on 4&gl from the 16. UT went 51/7pl but was int’d at the UA19 but UT went 62/12pl for a td, 28-17 (9:56) then after an int drove 25/3pl for a td with 8:19 left to go up 18 pts, 35-17. UT fmbl’d a punt with 5:59 left and UA went 45/7pl for a td with 3:30 left but UT rec’d the onside kick, got a FD to the UA36 and took a knee.

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By Phil Steele

Oakland at Cincinnati

While most homecomings are warm, Carson Palmer’s won’t be after he refused to play for the Bengals giving this veteran a chance to vent his frustrations on the field. The Raiders just faced the rejuvenated Saints and were blown out 38-17 with basically even yardage. They must travel across the country again and while they lost 55-20 they outgained the Ravens 422-419 but were completely done in by Flacco’s play action to Rice as he completed TEN passes of 18+ yards. However, CIN’s rush attack at home is avg 81 ypg (3.4) which will not give Dalton the same benefit. The Bengals are off an upset vs the Giants and off a road win vs a 1-8 squad giving them confidence and I expect this one to go down to the wire as both will give max effort.

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By Phil Steele

GAMES NOTES:

Ball St solidified its bowl standing and Ohio’s banged up team kept sliding. The Bobcats missed as many as 10 players due to injury but did only trail 21-17 at the half. Ball St lost their starting QB Keith Wenning who hit 16-20-172. Veteran Kelly Page came in and ran 7 yards for a td on his only play of the 1H and OU did get to the BSU12 with :12 left in the half but was sacked on the final play and did not score. OU got a 58 yd td run by Blankenship on the first drive of the 2H to take a 24-21 lead but Ball got a 68 yd Edwards run keying a 71/2pl drive for a td and OU missed a 27 yd FG. After 2 punts, BSU went 59/10pl for a 38 yd FG and OU went on an 11pl drive for a 34 yd FG, 31-27. Ball, after a 46 yard KR and a 15 yd penalty on a personal foul, drove 38/1pl for a td then after a punt went 65/6pl for a td and after OU went 3&out again, went 77/8pl for a td and turned it into a 52-27 rout with 2:18 left. Page hit just 5-7-41 rushing 4x’s for 34 yards.

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By Phil Steele

GAMES NOTES:

Toledo had a 526-446 yd edge and benefited from a 3-1 TO edge but still lost to Ball St at home. Toledo had entered the AP Poll for the first time since 2001 and as you see many times, teams that enter the AP for the first time in a long time, usually struggle with the attention that next week. Ball St took their opening 2 drives 82/11 and 87/7pl for td’s to lead 14-0 but UT battled back to 17-17 at the half and had a 350-220 yd edge at the half. UT had settled for a 29 yd FG. BS got a 61/10pl drive for a td to open the 3Q then missed a 35 yd FG and UT went 75/14pl. They settled for a 22 yd FG to make it 24-20. UT went 25/4pl and on 4&1 got a 16 yd td run to lead 27-24. BS tied it on a 30 yd FG with 9:41 left. UT went 68/7pl. After the game, Campbell was questioned for going for it on 4&1 on their next drive as they went 68/7pl and based on them settling for 2 short FG’s and the fact they had a td on the last 4&1, he probably made the right decision but UT was stuffed with 6:02 left. BS then went 86/11pl and got a 13 yd td run with 1:43 left to take the lead 34-27. UT on 4&7 from its own 27 fired incomplete.

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Buffalo at New England

In their first meeting this year the Bills were destroyed 52-28 as they blew a 21-7 lead after scoring on their 1st drive in the 2H. From there NE rocked 22-7 FD and 330-145 yd edges with 6 straight td drives. The Pats #1 ranked offense is on a record setting pace avg 29 FD/gm and in comparison the league leaders the L3Y have avg’d 26, 23 & 23 FD/gm. The new balanced attack (54/46% pass/run) led by the league’s #4 rush off (150 ypg) has given Brady additional time with play action as evidenced by his 16-3 ratio. The Bills have been an equal opportunity defense allowing 337 ypg vs 4 teams whose avg off ranking is #28 while allowing 499 ypg vs the 4 best offenses they’ve faced. Give Belichick a throat to step on and he will. The Bills, in the meantime, after starting last year 5-2 and going 1-8 down the stretch could be in the same situation after starting 2-1 this year and currently on a 1-5 run into this game.

GAMES NOTES:

Ohio was coming off its first loss of the year and rolled up Eastern Michigan with a 555-305 yard edge. It was just 17-14 when OU took over with :55 left in the half and went 65/7pl and on 2&10 got a 19 yd td pass with :11 left to lead 24-14. EMU in the 3Q went on a 14pl drive but punted and OU got a 3&5, def pass interference for a FD and on the next play a 79 yd td pass, 31-14. OU drove 44/5 for a td after a 38 yd PR with 5:03 left and got a 29 yd td run with 1:33 left.

Middle Tennessee and WKU played on a Thursday and MT pulled the first upset of the weekend. MT settled for a 19 yd FG on a 73/13pl drive to open and after a punt the teams would score td’s on 4 straight poss. WKU settled for a 29 yd FG, MT on 4&1 was SOD at the WKU32 with :32 left in the half and WKU missed a 47 yd FG on the final play of the half and it was 17-17. The game was tied 27-27 after a 27 yd WKU FG with 6:17 left but MT had a 96 yd KR for a 7 pt lead. WKU went 57/10pl but from the 21 yard line on FD was int’d at the 2. MT on 4&9 ran the ball into the back of the EZ for a safety on the last play of the game. WKU finished with a 438-342 yd edge.

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GAMES NOTES

Giovani Bernard ran for 177 yards and North Carolina had a 485-415 yard edge. Stephen Morris was having a fine game for Miami and had hit just 12-26-155 yds. He had some crucial runs for 40 yds on 7 carries. He was helped off the field with 8:26 left. Bkp Ryan Williams hit 9-13-80. NC led 7-0 when they were int’d at the UM25 then on the next drive missed a 33 yd FG. UM punted but roughing the P kept the drive alive and they would go 80/12pl for a td. NC led 15-7 at the half with a 313-191 yd edge. UM got to 15-14 after a delay of game pen had then go for just a regular xp. NC got a 48 yd FG then missed a 43 yd FG. UM went 48/13 and on 3&6 was SOD at the NC26. Their final drive got to the NC29 but on 4&16 they gained 11 yds with :22 left.

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