By Phil Steele
GAMES NOTES:
Troy had a 23-10 FD edge and 472-328 yd edge but Middle Tenn at home came away with a fortunate victory and Troy clinched a losing season. Troy was int’d on their 2nd poss and ret’d 22 yds to their 25 and MT got a 37 yd FG on a 20 yd drive. Troy went 60/9pl but fmbl’d at the 2 and on the next play, Parker got a 98 yd td run for MT, 10-0. Troy went 80/11pl for a td. Troy fmbl’d at the MT6 after a 42/5pl drive. MT got a 66 yd pass to Parker to the 28 but had a 43 yd FG blk’d. Troy had a punt blk’d 4pl later and MT got a 26 yd FG, 13-7 (6:26 2Q). At half MT had a 251-223 yd edge. Troy opened the 3Q with a 78/10pl drive and a 4 yd td pass put them up 14-13. 5 punts. Troy went 45/7pl but on FD from the MT33 fmbl’d and it was ret’d 59 yds to the 8. MT got a 21 yd FG on a 4 yd drive to lead 16-14. MT fmbl’d at the Troy44 on its next drive and Troy went 56/8pl for a td with 9:06 left for a 21-16 lead. MT was int’d on a deep pass and ret’d 43 yds to their 47. Troy got 1 FD and was int’ and ret’d 77 yds for a td with 5:48 left, the 2 pt conversion made it 24-21. Troy got 2 FD and on 4&4 fired incomplete at the MT27 with 2:46 left and MT got 1 FD and ran the clock. Read more…
Categories: News & Notes Tags: Baylor, Boston College, Civil War, Clemson, Colorado St, FIU, florida, Florida St, Hawaiii, Houston, Idaho, Louisiana, Louisiana Tech, Memphis, Michigan, Michigan St, Middle Tennessee, Minnesota, Mississippi St, Missouri, NC State, New Mexico, Notre Dame, Ohio St, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Ole Miss, Oregon, Oregon St, rice, San Diego St, San Jose St, South Alabama, South Carolina, Southern Miss, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Troy, Tulane, ULM, UNLV, USC, Utah St, UTEP, Wyoming
By Phil Steele
GAMES NOTES:
Ball St solidified its bowl standing and Ohio’s banged up team kept sliding. The Bobcats missed as many as 10 players due to injury but did only trail 21-17 at the half. Ball St lost their starting QB Keith Wenning who hit 16-20-172. Veteran Kelly Page came in and ran 7 yards for a td on his only play of the 1H and OU did get to the BSU12 with :12 left in the half but was sacked on the final play and did not score. OU got a 58 yd td run by Blankenship on the first drive of the 2H to take a 24-21 lead but Ball got a 68 yd Edwards run keying a 71/2pl drive for a td and OU missed a 27 yd FG. After 2 punts, BSU went 59/10pl for a 38 yd FG and OU went on an 11pl drive for a 34 yd FG, 31-27. Ball, after a 46 yard KR and a 15 yd penalty on a personal foul, drove 38/1pl for a td then after a punt went 65/6pl for a td and after OU went 3&out again, went 77/8pl for a td and turned it into a 52-27 rout with 2:18 left. Page hit just 5-7-41 rushing 4x’s for 34 yards.
Read more…
Categories: News & Notes Tags: Air Force, Alabama, Arizona St, Arkansas, Arkansas St, army, Ball St, Boise St, Boston College, Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Cincinnati, Colorado, Colorado St, Duke, Eastern Mich, FAU, FIU, florida, Florida St, Georgia, Georgia Southern, Georgia Tech, Hawaii, Houston, Indiana, Iowa, Jacksonville St, Kent St, Marshall, Maryland, Memphis, Miami, Michigan, Michigan St, Middle Tenn, Mississippi St, Montel Harris, Navy, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Northern Illinois, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio, Penn St, rice, rutgers, Sam Houston St, Shula Bowl, SMU, South Alabama, South Carolina, Temple, Texas A&M, Texas St, Toledo, Troy, Tulsa, UAB, UCF, USF, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Washington, Washington St, Western Carolina, Western Mich, Wofford
Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game.
Last week the Top 25 forecasts went 15-3 83% and on the year they are 118-21 85%!! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week which are 5-1 the last 4 weeks!! To get projected box scores for theses Top 25 games, click here.
#1 Alabama at Tennessee
Finally this game returns to The Third Sat in October. It may surprise some to know that from ‘95-’06 UT was 10-2 in this series. Since Bama lost at UT 16-13 in ‘06, they are 5-0 and have won their last 2 trips here 29-9 in ‘08 (+193 yards) and 41-10 in ‘10 (+221 yards). Last year’s game was surprisingly tied 6-6 at the half with Bama only having a 157-114 yard edge but Saban let them know about his unhappiness and Bama did not allow a FD in the 2H and had a 280-41 yard edge winning 37-6. The #1 Tide again have the nation’s #1 D and last week the only td allowed came on a 98 yard KR as they rolled Mizzou 42-10 racking up a 355-37 rush yard edge! Bama is on its second straight away which didn’t occur last year. After last week’s loss to Miss St 41-31, UT has lost 14 straight vs ranked opponents with the avg loss by 19 points per game. Despite huge improvements in the run game (avg 185 ypg), the Vols are 3-3 and Dooley is on one of the hottest seats in America. While Bama is well rested off a bye and blowout, they may be peeking ahead to games against Mississippi St and LSU on deck.
Read more…
Categories: Top 25 Games Tags: Alabama, Arizona St, Boise St, BYU, California, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colorado, florida, Florida St, Georgia, Kansas, Kansas St, Kentucky, Louisville, LSU, Maryland, Miami Fl, Michigan, Michigan St, Middle Tenn, Mississippi St, NC State, Notre Dame, Ohio St, Oklahoma, Oregon, Oregon St, Purdue, rutgers, South Carolina, Stanford, TCU, Temple, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Toledo, UNLV, USC, USF, Utah, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
GAMES NOTES:
I will admit when I’m wrong and last week I thought Texas had a great situational advantage. I thought Texas, with their defense would be able to handle West Virginia at home and win the game more comfortably than most thought before a record crowd of 101,851. WV finished with a 26-21 FD edge and 460-404 yd edge. After WV had a 40 yd FG blk’d they attempted to go for it numerous times on 4th down and met with success almost every time. On their 3rd drive they converted on 4&2 at midfield then on 4&4 were stopped but UT called time-out prior and on the next play WV got a 40 yd td pass. Texas led 28-27 at half and got the ball to open the 3Q and appeared to be in good shape going 54/13pl and settled for a 36 yd FG. WV’s 2nd 3Q poss converted on 4&6 and 4&1 on a 76/12pl drive for a td, 41-38 (10:50) UT was SOD on 4&13 and then a key play happened when on 3&6 from the WV 8 the snap got past QB Ash and he fell on it for a 16 yd loss. That forced a 41 yd FG and they missed and WV went 76/8pl as UT couldn’t get them off the field. Perhaps their most impressive player in the game was Andrew Buie who constantly broke tackles and rushed for 207 yards although Geno Smith is clearly the frontrunner for the Heisman hitting 25-35-268 yards. Hats off to WV for going into a hostile environment and beating a pretty good Texas team and they deserve to be in the Top 5.
Read more…
Categories: News & Notes Tags: Aaron Kelly, Air Force, Akron, Andrew Buie, Andrew Maxwell, Arizona, Arkansas, Arkansas St, army, Auburn, Baylor, Beehive Boot, BJ Daniels, Boise St, Boston College, Bowling Green, BYU, Casey Pachall, Clemson, Cody Getz, Connecticut, Conner Vernon, Duke, East Carolina, Eastern Michigan, FIU, florida, Geno Smith, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Gio Bernard, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa St, Jared Barnett, Jeff Driskel, Josh Nunes, Kain Colter, Kansas, Kansas St, Keith Marshall, Kent St, Kentucky, LSU, Lyle McCombs, Maikon Bonani, Marcus Lattimore, Marshall, Maryland, Matt Scott, Michigan St, Middle Tennessee, Mississippi St, Navy, North Carolina, Northwestern, October 6, Oklahoma, Penn St, phil steele, Pittsburgh, rutgers, Saturday Recap, SE Louisiana, Sean Renfree, South Carolina, Southern Miss, Stanford, Stephone Diggs, Syracuse, Tajh Boyd, TCU, Temple, Texas, Texas Tech, Todd Gurley, Trevone Boykin, Trevor Simian, Tulsa, Tyler Van Tubbergen, UAB, UCF, ULM, UMass, USC, USF, Utah, Utah St, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, West Virginia, Western Michigan, wisconsin, Zach Mettenberger
Here are my projections for games being played on Saturday, October 6th.
I list the projected scores from my computers forecast. Another column shows you the computers yardage forecast for each game. I think it will be interesting to see who the computer picks to win the yardage battle and see if they win the game. In my College Football magazine I have the plus and minus ratings. I update them weekly and then factor in the home edge and I will show you who the Plus Minus ratings forecast. I will also list who Vegas has favored to win each week and we can see how they do picking the actual winners of games. There is also a WEEKLY POLL which you can enter for free each week.
Read more…
Categories: College Football Picks Tags: Air Force, Akron, Arizona, Arkansas, army, Auburn, Ball St, Boise St, Boston College, Bowling Green, Buffalo, California, Central Mich, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colorado St, Connecticut, Duke, Eastern Mich, florida, Florida St, Fresno St, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Hawaii, Houston, Idaho, Illinois, Indian, Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, Kent St, Louisiana, Louisiana Tech, LSU, Marshall, Maryland, Memphis, Miami Fl, Miami Oh, Michigan, Michigan St, Middle Tennessee, Missouri, Navy, NC Staate, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, New Mexico St, North Carolina, North Texas, Northern Illinois, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio, Ohio St, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Oregon, Oregon St, Penn St, Purdue, rice, rutgers, San Diego St, SE Louisiana, SMU, South Carolina, Southern Miss, Stanford, TCU, Temple, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas St, Texas Tech, Toledo, Tulane, Tulsa, UAB, UCLA, ULM, UMass, UNLV, USF, UTEP, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Washington, Washington St, West Virginia, Western Mich, wisconsin, Wyoming
SECOND HIGHEST SCORING WEEKEND IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL HISTORY
This past weekend was the 2nd highest scoring weekend in college football history, with the teams combining to average 60.8 points. West Virginia and Baylor set a ton of records as WV had an 807-700 yd edge. Stedman Bailey would have set the Big 12 record with 303 yds receiving but he was actually topped by BU WR Terrance Williams who had 314. BU’s 9 game win streak came to an end as the teams combined for 1,507 yds offense and 6 rec’s had 100+ rec’s in WV’s first Big 12 game. The most previous points in a game involving a team in the AP poll was 124 set back in 1980 when Oklahoma beat Colorado 82-42. The 19 td’s combined just tied an NCAA mark which was set when Navy beat NT 74-62 in 2007. BU led 21-14 but trailed 70-56 when they got the last td with 3:08 left. WV got to the KO deep and WV got 2 FD and was able to run off the clock
Naturally a couple of SEC defenses like Tennessee and Georgia wouldn’t have had that type of game but they did. UGA had a 560-478 yd edge and Tenn a 26-20 FD edge. Tenn had a few missed opportunities as at the end of the 3Q they missed a 28 yd FG and with 5:55 left, UT at midfield was int’d at the UGA26. UT’s next poss got them to the UGA27 trailing by 7 pts but Bray was sk’d and fumbled with 1:22 left and UT’s final play was an int’d pass at the UGA48. UGA has topped over 40 pts in each of its first 5 games for the first time in school history
Read more…
Categories: News & Notes Tags: 5:10 am, ACC record, Akron, Alabama, Arizona, Arizona St, Arkansas St, Baylor, Boise St, cal, Charles Sims, Chuckie Keeton, Colorado, East Carolina, End of the half momentum, ESPN Insider, FAU, FIU, FL, Florida Atlantic, Florida St, Fresno St, Game Notes, Georgia, Houston, Illinois, Insight, Iowa St, Jack Trudeau, Jake Medlock, Kentucky, Louisiana, Louisville, LSU, Miami, Michigan St, Mike Leach, Mike Riley, Mississippi, NC State, Nebraska, New Mexico, New Mexico St, North Texas, OH, Ohio, Ohio St, Oklahoma St, Ole Miss, Oregon, Oregon St, Purdue, rice, San Diego St, SMU, South Carolina, Southern Miss, Steele Jantz, Stephen Morris, TCU, Tennessee, Texas, Texas Tech, Toledo, Towson, UCF, UCLA, UMass, UNLV, USF, Utah St, UTEP, UTSA, Van Tubbergen, Washington St, Weater, Weather, West Virginia, Western Michigan, WKU
Today’s blog continues my in-depth look at my New and Improved Experience Chart. For 7 years I had listed an experience chart, which broke down the number of seniors, juniors, sophomores and freshmen each team had in the two deep and rated the teams experience level with a formula I devised. In 2009, I made the experience chart FIVE TIMES better.
Today I will look at the % of yards returning. I took all of the yards each QB threw for as well as all of the individual rushing yards and receiving yards for each team. I then took all of the returning yards from ’11 for the percentage.
% of Yards Returning
|
NCAA
|
|
% YDS
|
|
Rank
|
Team |
Return
|
|
1
|
Boston College |
98.45% |
|
2
|
Kansas St |
95.83% |
|
3
|
Utah |
95.82% |
|
4
|
Eastern Michigan |
95.28% |
|
5
|
Troy |
95.23% |
|
6
|
ULM |
94.60% |
|
7
|
Clemson |
94.03% |
|
8
|
Pittsburgh |
92.86% |
|
9
|
West Virginia |
92.35% |
|
10
|
Nebraska |
91.98% |
|
11
|
TCU |
91.87% |
|
12
|
Army |
91.65% |
|
13
|
Marshall |
90.84% |
|
14
|
UTSA |
90.73% |
|
15
|
Tulane |
90.62% |
|
16
|
South Alabama |
89.90% |
|
17
|
Texas St |
89.77% |
|
18
|
Georgia |
89.36% |
|
19
|
Miami Oh |
88.32% |
|
20
|
Akron |
87.89% |
|
21
|
Florida St |
87.75% |
|
22
|
Oregon St |
87.15% |
|
23
|
Texas Tech |
86.98% |
|
24
|
Central Michigan |
86.36% |
|
25
|
Purdue |
86.34% |
|
26
|
USF |
85.51% |
|
27
|
USC |
85.25% |
|
28
|
Louisiana |
84.92% |
|
29
|
Iowa St |
84.91% |
|
30
|
Kentucky |
84.74% |
|
31
|
Mississippi |
84.11% |
|
32
|
Oklahoma |
83.95% |
|
33
|
Texas |
83.89% |
|
34
|
Ball St |
83.65% |
|
35
|
Missouri |
83.29% |
|
36
|
Vanderbilt |
83.11% |
|
37
|
Louisiana Tech |
82.23% |
|
38
|
Michigan |
81.80% |
|
39
|
California |
81.74% |
|
40
|
Duke |
81.52% |
|
41
|
Virginia |
81.37% |
|
42
|
Tennessee |
79.53% |
|
43
|
Penn St |
79.51% |
|
44
|
Fresno St |
79.38% |
|
45
|
Middle Tennessee |
79.11% |
|
46
|
Connecticut |
79.09% |
|
47
|
Colorado St |
79.06% |
|
48
|
Indiana |
79.00% |
|
49
|
UAB |
78.81% |
|
50
|
Rutgers |
78.03% |
|
51
|
Arkansas St |
77.94% |
|
52
|
Louisville |
77.75% |
|
53
|
Wyoming |
77.49% |
|
54
|
North Carolina |
77.34% |
|
55
|
UNLV |
76.71% |
|
56
|
Ohio St |
75.89% |
|
57
|
Notre Dame |
75.37% |
|
58
|
NC State |
75.04% |
|
59
|
South Carolina |
73.50% |
|
60
|
Arkansas |
73.28% |
|
61
|
Memphis |
71.29% |
|
62
|
Maryland |
71.29% |
|
63
|
Kent St |
71.16% |
|
64
|
Minnesota |
69.07% |
|
65
|
UCLA |
69.05% |
|
66
|
Bowling Green |
66.59% |
|
67
|
WKU |
65.96% |
|
68
|
Syracuse |
65.87% |
|
69
|
Georgia Tech |
65.69% |
|
70
|
BYU |
64.11% |
|
71
|
North Texas |
64.04% |
|
72
|
UTEP |
63.83% |
|
73
|
Illinois |
63.74% |
|
74
|
Wake Forest |
63.44% |
|
75
|
Western Michigan |
63.28% |
|
76
|
FAU |
63.27% |
|
77
|
Ohio |
63.16% |
|
78
|
Rice |
61.84% |
|
79
|
Washington |
60.65% |
|
80
|
Iowa |
59.94% |
|
81
|
Navy |
59.25% |
|
82
|
Toledo |
59.21% |
|
83
|
Auburn |
57.97% |
|
84
|
Alabama |
56.72% |
|
85
|
Washington St |
55.53% |
|
86
|
UCF |
55.03% |
|
87
|
Utah St |
54.44% |
|
88
|
Miss St |
54.17% |
|
89
|
Virginia Tech |
53.81% |
|
90
|
Tulsa |
52.34% |
|
91
|
LSU |
52.29% |
|
92
|
Wisconsin |
51.77% |
|
93
|
New Mexico |
51.55% |
|
94
|
Hawaii |
51.07% |
|
95
|
Kansas |
49.47% |
|
96
|
East Carolina |
46.82% |
|
97
|
Southern Miss |
45.43% |
|
98
|
San Jose St |
44.23% |
|
99
|
FIU |
42.63% |
|
100
|
Buffalo |
42.12% |
|
101
|
UMass |
42.10% |
|
102
|
Cincinnati |
41.84% |
|
103
|
Northwestern |
41.74% |
|
104
|
Stanford |
41.06% |
|
105
|
SMU |
39.76% |
|
106
|
Texas A&M |
39.33% |
|
107
|
San Diego St |
38.90% |
|
108
|
Nevada |
38.64% |
|
109
|
Temple |
37.93% |
|
110
|
Air Force |
37.35% |
|
111
|
Oregon |
36.55% |
|
112
|
Florida |
36.55% |
|
113
|
Boise St |
35.96% |
|
114
|
Oklahoma St |
35.69% |
|
115
|
New Mexico St |
35.11% |
|
116
|
Idaho |
34.85% |
|
117
|
Northern Illinois |
33.25% |
|
118
|
Baylor |
30.95% |
|
119
|
Arizona St |
30.22% |
|
120
|
Miami Fl |
23.74% |
|
121
|
Arizona |
22.69% |
|
122
|
Colorado |
22.34% |
|
123
|
Michigan St |
20.96% |
|
124
|
Houston |
16.54% |
At the top of the chart is Boston College. They return 10 starters from last years offense (only lost 1 OL) including 6 of their top 7 rushers and top 4 receivers. The Eagles only lose RB Montel Harris who had 135 yds rushing and WR Ifeanyi Momah who had 171 yds receiving. They are followed closely by Kansas St who returns 8 starters on offense (only lost 3 OL) and returns their all-everything QB in Collin Klein (1,918 pass, 1,141 rush) along with RB John Hubert who had 970 rush yds. Other schools at the top of the list include: Utah (95.82%), Eastern Michigan (95.28%) and Troy (95.23%).
At the bottom of the list are five teams that lost OVER 75% of their yards gained from last year. Houston loses record-setting QB Case Keenum who threw for 5,631 yds last year along with RB’s Michael Hayes and Bryce Beall who combined for 1,068 rush along with their Top 3 WR’s in Patrick Edwards, Justin Johnson and Tyron Carrier who combined for an incredible 3,939 rec yds last year! Michigan St loses QB Kirk Cousins (3,316 yds pass) RB Baker (665 yds rush) along with their top 4 WR’s who combined for 2,799 yds last year! Colorado, Arizona and Miami, Fl were the other three teams to lose more than 75% of their yards from last year.
Categories: Offseason Notes Tags: % of Yards Returning, 2012, blog, Boston College, college football, experience chart, Houston, Kansas St, Magazine, Michigan St, phil steele
Summer time is one of the more relaxing times of the year for me as I only work 60 hours a week instead of my normal 80-100 hour work weeks during football and magazine season. Right now I am currently writing up a forecast for each and every game for the 2011 season doing so one week at a time.
Most of my information comes directly from PhilSteele.com when analyzing a match-up. I first click on the 2011 schedules on the home page and select the conference I want. On the conference schedule pages I then go to each team and click on their opponent for that specific week and up pops a 14-year series history between the two schools complete with scores, rush/pass yds, sacks, total yds, where the game was played and if there was an upset or not. Everything I need for a series past history is right there at my fingertips. Read more…
I am always looking for new stats and new ways to analyze teams each and every year. In my last blog I gave you some information on how YPP (yards per point) affects a team’s record from season to season and a lot of that information will be featured in my upcoming college preview magazine.
This year I expanded this same type of concept by taking a look at points per play. Generally, you would think that the teams’ with the top scoring offenses in ppg would be ranked at the top but there are some noticeable differences. Read more…
GAMES NOTES:
