Well here it is, my projected AP Top 10 for next year as of January 30, 2012! I will mention it now and I will mention it numerous times throughout today’s blog but this is not MY preseason Top 10 for next year, it is where I project the AP Top 10 to come out at the start of the season.
Most AP voters usually look at a couple of criteria when they evaluate a team for the upcoming season. First they look at the number of returning starters that the team has coming back particularly at the offensive skill positions. A team that returns its starting QB and a combination of its RB and WR’s is often times more highly thought of than a team that loses its starting QB but returns its entire offensive line. Similarly a team that returns most of its starters on offense but loses a lot of its defensive playmakers usually is more highly thought of than a team that returns a majority of its defensive starters but loses its skill position players on offense.
Another factor that is heavily weighted is the performance of the team in the bowl game, which undoubtedly is the lasting image of that team in the offseason. A team coming off a huge bowl win usually is more highly thought of than a team that is coming off a bowl loss regardless of what their schedule looks like for the upcoming season. Read more…
Categories: Offseason Notes, Phil Steele News Tags: 2012, Alabama, AP Top 10, Arkansas, blog, college football, Florida St, Georgia, LSU, Michigan, Oklahoma, Oregon, phil steele, Projection, South Carolina, USC, West Virginia
I have gotten many requests to do a blog to explain how I compute each teams home field edge in the magazine. I have 27 different factors in my computer’s grade of a team. I then compare the computer’s analysis to my own and make the final decision.
While I mention that there are 27 factors in my home field computer ratings, there are actually nine individual factors that I use each year and I then combine the grades for the last three years giving half of the grade to last year, 30% to the numbers from two years ago and 20% to the computer rankings from three years ago.
Today I will go over the nine different areas that I use to rate home field edge. The first category is the stadium capacity. The largest stadium in the country last year was Penn St which held 107,282 and my computer gave them the maximum score of 6 for that category. My home field edges go from 0 to 6 in the magazine so they have the same scale in the computer. The smallest capacity is Idaho’s Kibbie Dome which seated just 16,000 and they received a 0 in that category. The rest of the capacities are done with a simple equation of Capacity-16,000 divided by 15,250. The reason I divide by 15,250 is that Penn St at 107,282-16,000 = 91,282 and 91,282 divided by 6 (0-6 scale) = 15,214 and I rounded up to get the 15,250. You can figure out what your favorite team is graded in this category by using this simple equation.
The second category is actual attendance reported by the school in 2010. Once again Michigan was at the top with 111,825 and this time the team at the bottom was Ball St which averaged just 8,947 fans per game last year. I used the same method as above to turn this data into a 0 to 6 rating where Michigan received a 6, Ball St a 0 and as an example Florida St with an attendance of 71,270 earned a 4.15 grade. Read more…
Categories: Offseason Notes Tags: 2011, Ball St, blog, Boise St, college football, Eastern Michigan, Edges, Homefield, Michigan, North Texas, Ohio St, Oklahoma, Oregon, Penn St, phil steele, TCU
We have already been working hard on the 2011 season and Today’s blog is the current list for Returning Starters for each team in 2011 broken down by offense, defense and special teams (kicker/punter). The * on the offense number denotes that the starting QB is returning. Below the list I broke down teams with the most/least returning starters.
I will be back later this week with all the Senior Bowl/Pro Bowl coverage you need to prepare you for this weekend’s games. On Monday I will expand on the Las Vegas odds to win the 2011 BCS National Championship and give you a breakdown of each of the 50 teams including key starters back/lost. Read more…
Categories: Offseason Notes Tags: 2011, Alabama, Auburn, blog, college football, Michigan, phil steele, Returning Starters, TCU, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt
vs 
Future?
The Big Ten will be going to a division format next year with the addition of Nebraska and recently there has been a lot of speculation that traditional powers Ohio St and Michigan will be separated and placed in opposite divisions. This argument to separate them has been gaining steam over the past several days with comments made by Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany and Michigan AD Dave Brandon in the media.
First let me say that I am a traditionalist when it comes to college football. I love all the great rivalries and traditions, which makes the game the greatest in all of sports. With this in mind, I am STRONGLY against the idea of Michigan and Ohio St being split up in separate divisions and the game being moved to the middle of the season for several reasons. Read more…
The college football season is fast approaching and in today’s blog I will give you a sneak peak at some of the early marquee college football non-conference games and how I think they will shake out as of right now. Also included is your current voting tallies for each of these games.
Remember if you visit the homepage right now, you can get a head start on voting in the Non-Conference Poll with all the non-conference games. To see where you rank against other voters, as soon as your vote is entered in, you will see the % stacked with or against you. In the next day or two the four remaining non-BCS conferences will be added on the front page. The Non-Conference Poll will run until Sunday, Aug 29th. On Monday the 30th, look for the Weekly Polls to start. There are games every day Thursday September 2nd thru Monday September 6th as the first week of the season looks to kick off with a bang! Weekly prizes will be awarded throughout the season. Read more…
Categories: College Football Forecasts, College Football Picks Tags: Alabama, Arizona St, Auburn, blog, Boise St, Clemson, college football, Connecticut, Florida St, Forecasts, LSU, Marquee Games, Miami Fl, Michigan, Non-Conference Polls, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Ohio St, Oklahoma, Oregon, Oregon St, Penn St, phil steele, Pittsburgh, TCU, Tennessee, Utah, Virginia Tech, wisconsin
A lot of people ask me if I have a favorite team. I was born and raised and still live in Cleveland, Ohio. I was a fan of many teams as a child but now that I put out a National magazine, I cannot afford to be a fan of any team. I have to pick the teams where I think they will finish each year. I was doing a radio show last week and I was asked if I have a favorite team or teams. My response was a strong YES! The interviewer was surprised by that answer and also eager to hear which team I would pick. My answer was my favorite team each year is the team I pick #1 in the magazine and my favorite teams are the ones I have picked higher than all the other major magazines out there. I then said that each year I establish a list of my favorite teams for that year. I then give this list to my wife. I wear a shirt and tie to work every day during the week and my tie is always a college team. I wear polo shirts during the weekend and when not at work and they are always different college teams. The list I give my wife is the ones to buy that I will be wearing for the upcoming year as these are the teams I will be the biggest fan of for the upcoming season. I was then asked “What teams will your wife be buying ties and shirts of this year? That was a great question and I thought I would answer it in a blog. Read more…
Categories: Offseason Notes Tags: Arizona, Auburn, Ball St, Baylor, blog, California, college football, Colorado, Favorite Teams, Fresno St, Kent St, Maryland, Miami Fl, Michigan, North Texas, Oklahoma, Penn St, phil steele, San Diego St, UAB, USF, West Virginia, Western Michigan
I have gotten many requests to do a blog to explain how I compute each teams home field edge in the magazine. I have 27 different factors in my computer’s grade of a team. I then compare the computer’s analysis to my own and make the final decision.
While I mention that there are 27 factors in my home field computer ratings, there are actually nine individual factors that I use each year and I then combine the grades for the last three years giving half of the grade to last year, 30% to the numbers from two years ago and 20% to the computer rankings from three years ago.
Today I will go over the nine different areas that I use to rate home field edge. Read more…
Categories: Offseason Notes Tags: 2010, Ball St, blog, Boise St, college football, Duke, Eastern Michigan, Homefield Edges, Michigan, North Texas, Oklahoma, Oregon, Penn St, phil steele, Temple, Virginia Tech
Many of you have asked me for an updated Bowl Projections listing since USC was eliminated from bowl contention recently. In the magazine which went to press before the NCAA’s ruling I projected the Trojans to go to the Rose Bowl. Naturally most of my Pac-10 selections for bowls have changed with the ineligibility of USC. Oregon now gets my pick to go to the Rose Bowl and a lot of the other Pac-10 teams get bumped up. Here are my current projections for all 35 of this year’s bowl games which includes the BCS Championship game. Read more…
Categories: Bowl Projections Tags: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, bcs, Bog, Bowl Projections, Capital One Bowl, college football, Cotton Bowl, fiesta bowl, florida, Gator Bowl, Georgia, Iowa, LSU, Miami Fl, Michigan, National Title, Nebraska, Ohio St, Oklahoma, orange bowl, Oregon, Outback Bowl, Penn St, phil steele, Pittsburgh, rose bowl, Sugar Bowl, TCU, Texas, wisconsin
