Who Faced the Toughest Schedule in 2010?

What makes my Toughest Opponents Faced rankings far superior to the NCAA method is that ours takes into account 9 sets of power ratings, combines them and factors in every team’s schedule this year. I did this not only for the bowl teams, but for all the NCAA teams & found out which teams played the toughest schedules this year.

2010′s Toughest Schedules
*Bowl Teams are in Bold

According to my ratings Oregon St faced the toughest schedule. The Beavers played 7 bowl teams not counting (Arizona St 6-6 and USC 8-5) and faced 3 probably the toughest non-conference schedule of any team with TCU, Boise St and Louisville. According to the NCAA, Notre Dame finished with the nation’s toughest schedule as their opponents went 89-42 (67.9%) but they did face 5 non-BCS teams which naturally was more than any other BCS team.  Middle Tennessee faced the easiest schedule this year and the also NCAA had them ranked #120 so it was much deserved. However, that is where the similarities between the NCAA and my rankings ended. Iowa ranked #34 in the NCAA rankings with an opp W/L % of 57.3%  playing 7 gms vs teams with winning records but played my #65 toughest schedule including games against 2-9 Eastern Illinois, 4-8 Ball St and 3-9 Minnesota. Per the NCAA, Kentucky faced the #103 toughest schedule with an opp W/L % of 45.9% facing 4 teams with winning records but took on my #57 schedule facing 6-6 Louisville, 6-6 Georgia, 4-8 Mississippi and 6-6 Tennessee that were all better than their records indicate.

Of the 70 bowl teams, Washington faced the toughest schedule, playing 8 teams with 6-6 records or above and the PAC-10 has a whole had the top 4 toughest schedules and 7 in the top 10 which goes to show their strength in playing 9 conference games and usually scheduling difficult games in non-conference play. Wisconsin had the easiest schedule for BCS teams coming in at #88. Despite playing in the Big Ten, the Badgers faced just five bowl teams and their non-conference schedule consisted of Austin Peay (FBS), UNLV, San Jose St and Arizona St.

When looking at the bowl match-ups, one of my considerations in picking who will win the game is taking a look at the schedule strength each opponent has faced and I look for the biggest discrepancies between the two teams.

Here are the Top 10 differences between schedule strength for the 2008 bowl games. (Schedule Strength)

1. St. Petersburg Bowl: USF (58) vs Memphis (117) Schedule Difference: 59 Final: USF 41-14 Win
2. Papajohns.com Bowl: NC St (16) vs Rutgers (66) Schedule Difference: 50 Final: Rutgers 29-28 Loss
3. Insight Bowl: Kansas (18) vs Minnesota (65) Schedule Difference: 47 Final: Kansas 42-21 Win
4. Outback Bowl: South Carolina (10) vs Iowa (51) Schedule Difference: 41 Final: Iowa 31-17 Loss
5. Rose Bowl: USC (24) vs Penn St (64) Schedule Difference: 40 Final: USC 38-24 Win
6. International Bowl: Connecticut (48) vs Buffalo (87) Schedule Difference: 39 Final: UConn 38-20 Win
7. Music City Bowl: Vanderbilt (14) vs Boston College (52) Schedule Difference: 38 Final: Vandy 16-14 Win
7. Alamo Bowl: Missouri (32) vs Northwestern (70) Schedule Difference: 38 Final: Missouri 30-23 OT Win
7. Eagle Bank Bowl: Wake Forest (43) vs Navy (81) Schedule Difference: 38 Final: Wake Forest 29-19 Win
10. Sugar Bowl: Alabama (40) vs Utah (76) Schedule Difference: 36 Final: Utah 31-17 Loss

As expected the team that played the tougher schedule went 7-3. The largest difference was the St. Petersburg Bowl which saw USF dominate Memphis 41-14. NC St who had faced the #16 schedule played well despite the 29-28 loss to Rutgers who had the #66 ranked schedule. Kansas who had a much tougher schedule than Minnesota won convincingly 42-21. The Rose Bowl had USC with the largest difference in schedule strength among BCS matchups crush Penn St 38-24 after racing out to a 31-7 halftime lead. Vanderbilt who played a much tougher schedule than Boston College got the upset. Despite the large difference in schedule strength, Alabama lost to Utah 31-17 as the Tide did not give their best effort after having their national title hopes evaporate in the loss to Florida in the SEC championship games.

Here are the Top 10 differences between schedule strength for the 2009 bowl games. (Schedule Strength)

1. Eagle Bank Bowl: UCLA (17) vs Temple (115) Schedule Difference: 97 Final: UCLA 30-21 Win
2. Outback Bowl: Auburn (8) vs Northwestern (100) Schedule Difference: 92 Final: Auburn 38-35 OT Win
3. Insight Bowl: Minnesota (11) vs Iowa St (73) Schedule Difference: 62 Final: Iowa St 14-13 Loss
4. Poinsettia Bowl: California (30) vs Utah (90) Schedule Difference: 60 Final: Utah 37-27 Loss
5. Liberty Bowl: Arkansas (6) vs East Carolina (61) Schedule Difference: 55 Final: Arkansas 20-17 OT Win
5. Rose Bowl: Oregon (9) vs Ohio St (64) Schedule Difference: 55 Final: Ohio St 26-17 Loss
7. Las Vegas Bowl: Oregon St (36) vs BYU (87) Schedule Difference: 51 Final: BYU 44-20 Loss
8. International Bowl: USF (68) vs N Illinois (117) Schedule Difference: 49 Final: USF 27-3 Win
9. Emerald Bowl: USC (17) vs Boston College (65) Schedule Difference: 48 Final: USC 24-13 Win
9. Little Ceasar’s Pizza Bowl: Marshall (66) vs Ohio (114) Schedule Difference: 48 Final: Marshall 21-17 Win

As expected the team that played the tougher schedule went 6-4. The largest difference was the Eagle Bank Bowl which saw UCLA win 30-21 and next in line was Auburn beating Northwestern 38-35.

Here are the Top 10 differences between schedule strength for the 2010 bowl games. (Schedule Strength)

1. Liberty Bowl: Georgia (43) vs UCF (114) Schedule Difference: 71
2. Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma (18) vs Connecticut (78) Schedule Difference: 60
3. New Mexico Bowl: BYU (61) vs UTEP (117) Schedule Difference: 56
4. Orange Bowl: Stanford (10) vs Virginia Tech (64) Schedule Difference: 54
5. Holiday Bowl: Washington (3) vs Nebraska (50) Schedule Difference: 47
6. Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: Boston College (54) vs Nevada (97) Schedule Difference: 43
6. Armed Forces Bowl: SMU (69) vs Army (112) Schedule Difference: 43
8. Sugar Bowl: Arkansas (29) vs Ohio St (71) Schedule Difference: 42
9. BCs National Championship: Auburn (12) vs Oregon (53) Schedule Difference: 41
10. Humanitarian Bowl: Fresno St (80) vs Northern Illinois (119) Schedule Difference: 39

This year we will again have a “Bowl Confidence Contest” and I hope there will be many more participants! Like the last couple of years I will update two categories after each bowl game. The first category is total points. If you picked a team and they won their bowl you receive the points that you risked. Sometimes the early leaders are the ones that risked the most on the early bowls and they fall by the wayside as the contest goes on. Sometimes the early leaders in this category will remain at the top through it all it all. I will also keep track of those that have the best win percentage of their points. The morning after each bowl game I will list the current leaders in two categories on the website. Like last year we will have great prizes with 1st place getting $250 and a set of 2011 magazines!! 2nd place receives $100 and a set of magazines and 3rd place $50 and a set of magazines!!

You can enter the contest by simply clicking here. To enter, just go to the sign up page and log in your information. Then after that go to your picksheet page and simply pick who you think will win each of the 35 bowl games. You then award your confidence points to each. The team you think will definitely win their game would get 35 points and the team who you picked at the bottom which was very tough for you to call would get 1 point. For each team that wins their bowl game that you picked correctly, you get the confidence points you assigned to them. Those with the highest points are the winners. The first bowl game takes place on December 18th at 2:00 PM EST and Good Luck!!
One Bowl Entry Per Person Please!! For more contest rules click here and if you have any questions or concerns please email brandon@philsteele.com.

Also make sure to check PhilSteele.com everyday for complete information and coverage on all the bowl matchups. Later this week on the homepage click on the Bowl Matchups link, where you will find all 35 bowl games. Click on the bowl logo for each game to get all the information you need to become an expert! Start doing your homework now and get your 35 bowl predictions done.

All week long I will be taking a look at the conference teams of the decade for 2000-2009. Factored into my analysis will be conference win %, conference and division titles, bowl games and bowl wins. I will also include BCS bowl wins, final AP rankings and number of national championships for the major conferences. There have been several teams who have changed conferences during that time and I will include them in the analysis for any season(s) they were affiliated with that certain conference. I will also be doing a breakdown of how the conference did in bowl games during the decade and I will emphasis the overall win/loss record, the number of BCS bowl wins, and the records against Non-BCS and ranked bowl teams.

While some conferences may have no-brainers as the top team, other conferences were very competitive over the past decade. Here is the schedule for the upcoming week with the conferences I will be analyzing on each date.

Today Sun Belt
Tomorrow MAC
Wednesday WAC
Thursday CUSA
Friday MWC
Saturday Big East
Monday July 5th Pac-10
Tuesday July 6th ACC
Wednesday July 7th Big 12
Thursday July 8th Big 10
Friday July 9th SEC

The Sun Belt began in 2001 with North Texas, Middle Tennessee, New Mexico St, Louisiana, ULM, Arkansas St and Idaho. In 2003, they added Utah St. In 2004 Troy joined the league as it grew to 9 teams. In 2005, Utah St, New Mexico St and Idaho left for the WAC and taking their place was Florida Atlantic and Florida International putting them back at 8. Western Kentucky joined last year to get them back to 9.

North Texas dominated the start of the league with a 25-1 run in the first 4 years with 4 league titles and appeared to have a lock on the team of the decade honors. Since then they are just 6-30 which is shocking. North Texas still has a share of the lead with 4 league titles  but newcomer Troy has dominated as of late winning at least a share of the last 4 conference titles. Middle Tennessee has 2 conference titles while Louisiana, Arkansas St, ULM and Florida Atlantic have 1 each. By easily having the best win % and while they are tied for the most titles with four, I will crown Troy as the SBC team of the decade for 2000-2009!

Here are my Top 4 SBC teams for the past decade…

Sun Belt Conference Rankings ’00-’09

The Sun Belt has an overall record of 5-8 in bowl games with all of the games coming against non-ranked and non-BCS teams. Here are the bowl records for each team that played in one over the past decade.

Sun Belt Bowl Records ’00-’09

Also The Top 30 Countdown that we did several weeks ago for the FBS teams was wildly successful so please check PhilSteele.com everyday to get my FCS Top 25 Countdown, which continues with #23 Colgate. Thru July 20th, I will post both magazine pages on a new team ranked in the Top 25 and you can get an early look on how I breakdown your favorite FCS team. Remember those magazine pages are available for only 24 hours for you to download as the next team will be posted the following day. 

I will be back tomorrow with a look at the MAC which will be one of the closest conference races of the past decade.

Only 66 Days Until the First College Football Game!!!

Expansion Thoughts

The conference expansion/re-alignment situation to me is very similar to all the talk earlier this year of the NCAA Basketball tournament expanding. While I do not follow college basketball, it seemed like every day I turned on SportsCenter I would hear the rumors and possibilities of the tournament expanding to 96 teams but when it was all said and done only three teams were added.

With the news of Texas deciding to stay with the Big 12 (or is it now the new Big Ten?), I think all the expansion talk of there being four 16 super conferences will probably go by the wayside. All the talk about the Big East and ACC being in danger seems moot and I think Utah going to the Pac-10 should probably close all the moves as I do not feel the Big 12 will expand as they will not want to divide the TV pie up among two more teams.

Naturally the Big Ten is now a stronger conference with the addition of Nebraska and are clearly the #2 conference behind the SEC now. The WAC was dealt a severe blow with the loss of Boise to the MWC.

What I do not understand in this whole mess is how the Big 12 can lose two teams with one of them being Nebraska and go from a 70 million dollar TV contract to a 200 million dollar deal. Obviously Big 12 commissioner Dan Beebe did a great job of convincing Texas to stay and I am sure Kansas, Kansas St, Baylor and Iowa St fans are glad he did.

Power Ratings

If you are a follower of my magazine, I am sure you are familiar with the fact that I have NINE different sets of power ratings that I create each preseason to give me 9 different ways of analyzing a team. One is based on the individual talent level and performance of each position on each team and those are added up for the rating. Another is based on my Power Plays numbers, which include rushing and passing offenses, defenses and special teams. Another is a continually updated power rating based on the score of the games and the strength of opponent. Finally a few years back, before computers became part of the BCS rankings system, there was without a doubt some flaws in the polls. Teams rated #2 or #3 in the country really were not that talented and were maybe the 5th or 6th best. One internet site decided to produce a poll of some of the top analysts and experts each week and invited me to join. I myself work 365 days a year. During magazine time (March, April, May) and throughout the football season (August through January) there are many 15-18 hour days put in and all of them are spent solely working on FOOTBALL. When they invited me to join the poll, I wanted to give them the best set of power ratings in the country to help make the poll as accurate as possible. The dilemma I had was which set?

What I decided to do was combine all eight into one rating which gives me a very solid overall ranking for each team. The rating takes into account EVERY factor, using it as my main set of power ratings which thus created my 9th set. You can learn more about this main set of power ratings on page 315 of this year’s magazine. I also go into complete details on my plus/minus power ratings on page 305.

When I have all of my sets of power ratings finalized I then plug them into each individual team’s schedule and let the computer play out each game using the different power ratings. My computer will then show me which teams that have one or more sets of Power Ratings calling for them to have undefeated seasons. Naturally, if a team is projected at the top of my Power Ratings, it has a greater chance of going unbeaten. 

Here are the teams that are projected to have undefeated seasons by at least one of my power ratings this year.

Power Ratings Call For 12-0 Season

This list of teams has proven to be a good indicator of the chances of an undefeated season. In 2002, three sets of my ratings called for Ohio St to go unbeaten and the Buckeyes were the surprise team of the country and won the National Title. Basically any team that has finished unbeaten in the past 8 years has made this list.

Here are some teams that just missed the cut.

Power Ratings Call For 11-1 Season

I am sure you are wondering why I am so fascinated and dependent on power ratings when analyzing a team in the preseason and during the season. I am in my late 40’s and I started following college football with great intensity at about 10 years old. At that time (being a numbers guy) I devised my own set of power ratings, which was based mostly on where the preseason magazines I was reading ranked the teams. I even awarded points at that time for how many pictured players each team had in the magazines. I updated those ratings during the season based on the final scores of the games.

A few years later after compiling my ratings (and no longer counting pictures), I stumbled upon the GamePlan magazine. In the front of the magazine was a set of power ratings for each team!! I now had two sets of power ratings on each team and I updated them both during the year giving me two different ways of looking at the strength of a team and I was well on my way to nine different sets.

Also please check PhilSteele.com everyday to get my Top 30 Countdown, which posted #3 Alabama yesterday. Through Thursday, I will post both magazine pages on a new team ranked in the Top 30 and you can get an early look at my breakdown of your favorite team. Remember those magazine pages are available for only 24 hours for you to download. Today, Ohio St comes in at #2.

Last week we opened the polls on the homepage for you, the fans to vote on each and every conference matchup for eight conferences. Last year you guys were more accurate than any other college preview publication and this is a great way for me to gauge how the public views each game. When you vote you have the entire conference schedule in front of you and the home team is capitalized. Get your votes in today and see how the fans think the big games like Oklahoma-Texas, Ohio St at Iowa, Florida St at Miami, Fl and West Virginia at Pittsburgh are going to shake out! To vote you do have to register your e-mail address but this is just to make sure there is no stuffing of the ballot box.

Only 79 DAYS LEFT UNTIL THE FIRST COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME!!

Turnovers can have a huge impact on games and on a team’s season. They can also lead to many misleading final scores. During the season I list all of the previous week’s misleading final scores on PhilSteele.com in my Monday Daily Blog. By reading about them each week you can uncover some underrated and overrated teams throughout the season.

Here are a couple of examples from last year. Iowa St benefitted from +8 in TO’s vs Nebraska and pulled out a 9-7 win. Nebraska turned it over 4 times inside the 5 yard line and lost despite a 362-239 yard edge. The next 2 weeks Iowa St was overrated and they lost by a combined 69-18 vs Texas A&M and Oklahoma St despite only being slight underdogs in each.

Florida St appeared to pummel BYU 54-28 on the road but they only had a 512-475 yard edge as they benefitted from +5 in TO’s. The next week FSU entered the Top 25 but lost to USF at home as a 2 TD favorite 17-7 and BYU bounced back with a 42-23 whipping of Colorado St.

Turnovers can not only make a difference in a game but can make the difference between a winning and losing season.

Last year there was another GREAT example. In 2008, Buffalo won the MAC Title thanks mostly to being +19 in turnovers. They were actually outgained by an avg of 408-370 during the season! Last year they had 13 returning starters and this time outgained foes 405-343. That means they went from -38 ypg to +62 ypg (100 ypg better) but their record dropped to 5-7 as the TO’s were -7.

Teams that benefitted from double-digit turnovers the previous year rarely get a repeat of that good fortune. In the last 17 years, 252 teams have had double-digit plus turnovers. Of those 252, 162 have had weaker records the following year (64.3%). Only 58 teams (23.0%) have improved their record and the other 32 had the same record. Teams with a positive double-digit TO ratio had the same or weaker record 77.0% of the time since 1996. Listed below are last year’s most fortunate teams:

Last year 17 teams were in the “Going Down” box and only 4 managed to improve their record slightly including VTech which went from 10-4 to 10-3. The teams with the biggest dropoffs were Rice which went from 10-3 to 2-10 and Oklahoma (12-2 to 8-5).

As I previously stated, if a team received bad breaks the year before, they will usually be headed for better fortune the following year. In the past 17 years, there have been 208 teams that have finished the season minus double-digits in turnovers. Of those 208 teams, 143 (69%) have had better records the next year! Teams with a negative double-digit TO ratio had the same or stronger records 80% of the time since 1996. Which teams are headed for better fortunes and better seasons?

Last year a record high 17 teams made the “Going Up” box which meant they had suffered negative double digit turnovers in 2008 and were poised to receive better fortune. Of the 17 teams, 13 (or 76.5%!) had a better record than 2008, 1 had the same record and only 3 of the 17 (17.6%) had a weaker record. There were SIX teams on that list that went from a losing season to a bowl game! Those 6 teams were SMU, Idaho, Ohio U, Wyoming, Texas A&M and UCLA!!

Turnovers also have the same impact on the pro game. At first I figured that the NFL game would not show as much of a turnaround, but was actually surprised to see that the NFL game has had more turnarounds. First of all, the NFL season is 16 games long as opposed to 12 or 13 in college. With the extra NFL games, I upped the criteria from double-digit TO’s to plus or minus 12 turnovers or .75 per game. I then analyzed all the NFL teams since 1991 that have benefited from +12 turnovers or more. In that span of 19 years there have been a total of 65 teams that benefited from +12 turnovers or more. Of those 65, 47 or 72% had weaker records the next season including 13 of 14 (93%) over the last four seasons!! There were seven teams that had the same record. Only 11 of the 65 teams (17%) were able to improve their record the next season after benefiting from +12 turnovers or more.

Last year Miami (+17) made my “Going Down Box” and the Dolphins went from 11-5 in ’08 to just 7-9 last year. Tennessee was +14 in 2008 and finished the season 13-3. Last year the Titans did not catch the same breaks and they dropped to 8-8. Baltimore went 11-5 in ’08 and made an appearance in the AFC Champ game thanks in large part to being +13 in TO’s. Last year the Ravens did not have the same fortune and fell to 9-7.

Here are the teams that were +12 or more last year and could be heading to a disappointing season….Green Bay +23, New Orleans +18 and Philadelphia +12

As I previously stated, if a teams received bad breaks the year before, they will usually be headed for better fortune the following year. Once again I was very surprised the NFL game yielded even higher percentages. Since 1991, 63 NFL teams suffered from -12 turnovers or more. Of those 63 teams, an amazing 44 or 70% had a stonger record the next season and 7 had the same record the next year. Of the 63 teams with -12 turnovers or more, only 12 or 19% did not improve their record the next season!!

Here are some teams that could be heading to better finishes this year. Detroit (-18), St Louis (-13), Oakland (-13) and Cleveland (-12).

If you like this type of information, you will love the News and Notes section which is updated weekly at PhilSteele.com. I review such information as “Misleading Final Scores” and much, much more. Keep tabs on all of these teams this year and watch how turnovers WILL EQUAL turnaround in 2010!

The magazine is out everywhere right now so make sure you pick up your copy this week. My magazine is unlike other preseason magazines….which you buy, do a quick read thru and they sit on a shelf the rest of the year. If you buy Phil Steele’s College Football Preview it will be on your coffee table or desk ALL year because much of the statistics and analysis  are useful all the way into December.

Also please check PhilSteele.com everyday to get my Top 30 Countdown, which posted #4 TCU yesterday. Through June 16th, I will post both magazine pages on a new team ranked in the Top 30 and you can get an early look at my breakdown of your favorite team. Remember those magazine pages are available for only 24 hours for you to download. Today, defending national champ Alabama comes in at #3.

Only 80 DAYS LEFT UNTIL THE FIRST COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME!!!

In today’s blog, I will finish releasing my Preseason All-Conference Teams with the All-SEC and All-SBC Teams.

In the SEC, Defending National Champion Alabama leads the way with six 1st Team selections led by last year’s Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram who rushed for 1,658 yds (6.1) with 17 TD’s.

Georgia also placed six on my 1st Team thanks in large part to their outstanding special teams unit which has three 1st Team players! On offense, the Bulldogs are led by All-American candidate WR AJ Green who many feel will be the top WR taken in next year’s NFL draft.

The conference is a little more balanced than the last couple of years as Auburn, LSU and Florida each have three players on the 1st Team while Arkansas, South Carolina and Kentucky each have two.

Only three players made my preseason SEC 1st Team for the second consecutive year: Green, Alabama WR Julio Jones, and Arkansas TE DJ Williams.

Download All-SEC.PDF

In the Sun Belt, Middle Tennessee returns 14 starters from last year’s 10-3 team and has six players on my 1st Teamled by QB Dwight Dasher who broke the school record for total offense with 3,943 yds including 1,154 rush yds (5.2).

North Texas figures to be improved from last year’s 2-10 finish and placed five on the 1st Team including a pair of OL in G Kelvin Drake (HM SBC LY) and T Esteban Santiago (1st Tm SBC LY).

Florida International has four on the 1st Tm including T.Y. Hilton who made 1st Team at WR and KR.

Three players made my preseason SBC 1st Team for the second consecutive year: Hilton, Troy WR Jerrel Jernigan and Arkansas St DT Bryan Hall.

Download All-SBC.PDF

Please check PhilSteele.com everyday to get my Top 30 Countdown which posted #22 West Virginia yesterday. Thru June 16th, I will post both magazine pages on a new team ranked in the Top 30 and you can get an early look on how I breakdown your favorite team. Remember those magazine pages are available for only 24 hours for you to download. Today, South Carolina comes in at #21.

I will be back tomorrow with Part One of my New and Improved Experience Chart and then on Saturday will feature Part 2 of the chart which will stay up thru Memorial Day with many of you away from your computers.

ONLY 12 DAYS UNTIL PHIL STEELE’S 2010 MAGAZINE HITS THE NEWSSTANDS! 

98 DAYS LEFT UNTIL THE FIRST COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME!!!

In my 2009 College Preview Magazine on pgs 324 and 327 I included my computer’s projected stats in 2009 for all 120 FBS teams. There were several different categories including rush offense/defense, pass offense/defense, offensive pts and defensive pts.

On the right hand side of the page I listed the teams that my computer projected to be most improved in ’09 compared to ’08 season in 6 different categories. I had them ranked in order from Most Improved all the way down to the Least Improved and included the top 15 in each category along with the bottom 5.

In today’s blog I have included my projections of the teams I thought would be most improved in rush offense heading into the 2009 season and how they finished in the final NCAA rankings.

In the coming days I will feature a different category in each blog and I think you will be happy with the results of the accuracy of my projections.

Most Improved Offensive Rush 2009

Pre-Season Projection

Final Rankings

As you can see my projections were fairly accurate. 11 out of the top 15 (73%) teams I thought would be most improved saw their rush offense ypg increase in ’09. All 5 of my top teams increased their rush offense by an avg of 36.79 ypg and even with counting the 4 teams who did not improve in ’09, my top 15 had an avg improvement of 17.2 ypg!

In ’08 the Clemson rush attack avg just 3.4 ypc, its lowest in 4 years and I thought they would be the most improved rush offense with a more experienced OL. Led by RB CJ Spiller (1212 yds, 5.6 ypc), the Tigers increased their rush offense by nearly 60 ypg in ’09 and finished #11.

Coming into the season Middle Tennessee’s OL had 99 career starts which tied for 11th most in the FBS and I thought the Blue Raider rush offense would go from a weakness to a strength in ’09. Thanks to multi-threat QB Dwight Dasher (1154 rush yds, 5.2 ypc), the Blue Raiders rush offense improved by nearly 80 ypg in ’09 and finished in the top 5 most improved.

My bottom 5 results were even more accurate. All of my 5 projected least improved teams saw their rush offense ypg decrease in ’09 and all 5 of the teams including bowl bound Connecticut finished 96th or worse! Overall my bottom 5 saw their offensive rush ypg drop an avg of 86.43 ypg and 3 of the 5 teams actually finished in the bottom 5 just as I projected!

Coming into the season I thought New Mexico would have the least improved rush offense as they were switching to more of a pass oriented scheme under new HC Locksley. The Lobos would go on to finish #117 as their rush offense ypg dropped from 208.25 in ’08 to just 100.25 in ’09 a 108 ypg decrease. Also in my magazine I predicted Tulsa to have the #119 least improved rush offense and at the end of the season the Golden Hurricane would finish at exactly #119 with a 117.25 ypg decrease.

Overall 16 of the 20 teams (80%) that were featured in my magazine finished with either a higher or lower rush ypg just as I projected!

Here is a complete list of all 120 teams and how they fared from 2008 to 2009. The teams highlighted in bold were the teams I had projected in my top 15 and the teams in italics are those who were in my bottom 5.

Each day during bowl season in my daily blog, I will give you my forecasts on the bowl games taking place that day. My forecasts will include a detailed write-up with my computer’s projected box score including rushing and passing yards, points and turnovers along with a detailed write-up on each game.

Make sure you check out the Bowl Matchup section at PhilSteele.com where you’ll find all the latest and greatest information on the remaining bowl games. At the bottom of each individual bowl matchup page, there is a checklist that breakdowns on who has the advantage position by position, coaching, intangibles, and crowd advantage. You’ll also find game-by-game stats for each team, recaps of the 2009 season with box scores and each team’s stats.

Tomorrow’s blog will discuss the first three bowls games of the season and include the contest leaders. I will also include the leaders of the four radio station subcategories. We did promise that the contest leaders would be posted after each day but we are a little overwhelmed right now with more than 1,000 entries!

Remember, too, there’s still time for you to get your entries in! With 2 Bowls gone we have assigned the lowest points available (#1 and #2) to the New Mexico and St Petersburg Bowls — but you still have a chance at that cash! Get your Bowl Confidence Contest entry in TODAY as this could be the last day it is available! Rank the remaining bowls from #34 to #3 and see where you stack up against the Top 50 daily (starting Monday) at PhilSteele.com!

NEW ORLEANS BOWL

Middle Tennessee vs Southern Miss

The Golden Eagles were in this same bowl last year where they beat Troy 30-27 in OT. QB Martevious Young has gotten better each week after getting forced into action when starter Austin Davis went down and has a 13-1 ratio. In the New Orleans Bowl Matchup page at the bottom there is a checklist that weighs 13 different variables and Southern Miss is 11 points better. This will be the final game for Southern Miss RB Damion Fletcher and the Eagles will want to send him out on a winning note.

PHIL’S FORECAST: SOUTHERN MISS 35 MIDDLE TENNESSEE 24