As you know I’ve always spent about 90% of my time on college football but I am very excited about our NFL Magazine. I have the same desire to mirror my success of being college footballs “most accurate” magazine by becoming the most accurate NFL Magazine as well. In this years magazine (which is now available) I project each of the division races with records. I want to share just how much work and research goes into making these forecasts.

I’ve posted several articles on my blog including: repeating as a division champ and slipping and sliding can help you analyze a teams fortunes. These are just part of the research I do annually to make my predictions. The schedule is of course an important part of analyzing the upcoming season. Read more…

In Monday’s Blog, I analyzed which method of determining who plays the toughest schedule is more accurate; mine or the NCAA. I compared the preseason predictions of both and concluded that my method is superior because it takes two major factors into account. The first is my 9 sets of Power Ratings. This ensures that an FCS team like William & Mary who was 11-3 last year is rated much lower than Oklahoma which was 8-5 in 2009. The second factor is the amount of home and away games played. As an example, this year some teams will have as many as 8 home games, while others play as many as 8 on the road.

Today’s blog will take a closer look at the toughest schedule debate by looking at this year’s opponents’ win/loss record from the 2009 season.

At the beginning of the season, the NCAA usually releases a rating of each team’s schedule based on their opponents’ win/loss record from the previous season. This is a good method but it does have its obvious flaws.

The first flaw is basing the ratings on opponents’ records from the previous season. Let’s look at a couple of examples. At the start of 2007 I had Illinois rated as one of the top teams in the Big Ten and they went on to knock off #1 Ohio St and play in the ROSE BOWL. My ratings had them as an above avg opponent at the start of the year and they finished the regular season #13 (AP). Using 2006’s record as the criteria for determining the strength of an opps’ schedule, however you would count them as a 2-10 team!

The second flaw is basing it on pure overall records. If a team plays a FCS (IAA) school that was 11-1 in 2007, that would have counted as a MUCH tougher game in the NCAA ratings than facing a team like Alabama who was 7-6 in ‘07 but #1 at the end of ‘08 regular season! My ratings had Bama ranked as a much tougher team than an FCS foe.

Below is a chart of all 120 teams and the combined 2009 opponents’ records from last year. It is ranked in order of highest % of opponent wins (or toughest schedule) to lowest % of opponent wins (or easiest schedule). This is the same chart that will be printed in this year’s college preview magazine. Read more…

AFC Championship • 3:00 ET • CBS

NY Jets vs Indianapolis

The AFC comes full circle here. Having already dispatched Cincinnati in the Wildcard Round the Jets have the opportunity to take out the other team that essentially gifted them a playoff spot. Indianapolis had a 15-10 lead after the 1st drive of the 2H in the 1st meeting when they pulled Manning & the rest of the starters. At that point Indy had 16-7 FD & 254-115 yd edges & the Jets TD came when Brad Smith returned the 2H’s opening KO 106 yards for a TD. However the combo of Jones & Greene had 68 yds (4.5) rushing in the 1H. The Jets #1D sacked Indy QB Painter on his 2nd series forcing a fumble which they returned to take the lead & the run defense took over. Last week was a story of 2 halves for the Jets as while they were outgained 212-99 in the 1H they allowed just 1 TD as San Diego missed 2 FG’s. In the 2H the Jets had a 163-132 yd edge & held San Diego to just 9 yds on their 1st 4 drives of the 2H. Indianapolis quieted doubters about how ready they would be after shutting it down for the final 2 games. The Colts #18 defense used their impressive team speed to hold Rice to just 67 yds (5.2). Manning is 4-1 vs a Rex Ryan defense avg 227 ypg (62%) with a 9-2 ratio.

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First I want to wish everyone a Happy and Safe New Year! I also would like to thank everyone who has been using and reading PhilSteele.com this year. Your support and comments have helped us improve the site tenfold the past couple of years and with your help we will make PhilSteele.com even better in the upcoming year!

Each day during bowl season in my daily blog, I will give you my forecasts on the bowl games taking place that day. My forecasts will include a detailed write-up with my computer’s projected box score including rushing and passing yards, points and turnovers along with a detailed write-up on each game.

Also check out the bowl matchup section to get the latest and greatest information on all the upcoming bowl games including, game by game stats, 2009 recaps, and checklists for every position and intangible.

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