Today’s blog will continue with my series of analyzing the most/least improved units over the last 20 years. Each day this week I will have a new offensive or defensive statistical category to examine and today I will breakdown total defensive yards.

There are many factors that contribute to a significant change in total defense. First, a team may see a significant improvement if they return a bunch of experienced starters from a team that was relatively inexperienced the year before. Naturally a team that loses a bunch of starters especially their star players from an experienced team will usually see a drop off in total defense.

Another factor may be a coaching change. Usually a coach is more experienced at one side of the ball than the other (especially if they were just a coordinator in their previous job) and this could lead to a change in total defense. A “defensive” minded coach could come in an improve the defense as a whole by possibly instituting a more physical and attacking defense while a “offensive” minded coach may be more conservative on the defensive side of the ball and the total defense ypg could suffer.

Whatever the case may be here are all the teams that improved by at least 125 ypg of total defense compared to the prior season. Quick note for many of the smaller schools in the WAC, MAC and Sun Belt: my data only goes back to 1995 for those teams so it would include the last 15 years instead of the last 20.

Most Improved Total Defense YPG L/20 years

The most improved total defense of the last 20 years was Chuck Amato’s 2004 NC State Wolfpack. In 2003 the Wolfpack returned just four starters from a 2002 defense that gave up just 17.0 ppg and 301 total ypg. However, NC State fell dramatically to allow 421 ypg and 29.6 ppg. In 2004, the Wolfpack returned 9 starters and their numbers improved significantly allowing just 221 total ypg, a 200 ypg improvement.

At #2 is the 2006 Western Michigan Broncos who improved dramatically in HC Bill Cubit’s 2nd year. In 2004, the Broncos gave up 39.6 ppg and 480 ypg in Gary Darnell’s final year. Western Michigan brought in Cubit and the defense improved to allow 31.1 ppg and 450 ypg in 2005. Then the following year the defense took a huge step forward as they only allowed 19.9 ppg and 275 total ypg, a 175 ypg improvement!

The #3 most improved total defense of the last 20 years also occurred in 2006. In Bret Bielema’s first year, the Badger defense improved dramatically as they allowed just 253 total ypg which was significantly better than the 418 ypg they allowed in Barry Alavarez’s final season. This was one of the key factors in the Badgers’ very successful 12-1 season.

Now here is a look at all of the teams who gave up at least 125 total defensive yards more than the prior year. Keep in mind again that my data only goes back to 1995 for some of the smaller schools.

Least Improved Total Defense YPG L/20 Years

The least improved total defense of the last 20 years is the 1996 Baylor Bears who gave up 204 total ypg more than the prior year. Like I mentioned in the rush defense blog, the Bears found their transition to the Big 12 to be difficult as they faced many more powerful offenses in the newly formed conference.

At #2 is the 1998 Navy Midshipmen who returned just 2 starters from a defense that have up just 19.0 ppg and 263 total ypg in 1997. With so many experienced starters gone, Navy allowed 463 total ypg and went from being 7-4 in ’97 to just 3-8 in ’98.

Finally the #3 least improved total defense of the last 20 years is the 1997 Louisville Cardinals who in Ron Cooper’s final season went from allowing just 236 ypg in ’96 to 422 ypg in ’97 and that was a critical factor in the Cards finishing just 1-10 on the season.

Make sure you visit the PhilSteele.com homepage and check out several of the new features added in the past week including Phil Steele Videos, Players Lost for the Season, Facebook Forecasts and a Week-by-Week Schedule complete with up-to-date TV times.

I will be back tomorrow with a look at the most/least improved offensive ppg of the last 20 years.

Only 37 Days Until the First College Football Game!!

Today’s blog will continue with my series of analyzing the most/leas improved units over the last 20 years. Each day this week I will have a new offensive or defensive statistical category to examine and today I will breakdown total defensive yards.

There are many factors that contribute to a significant change in pass defense. First, a team may see significant improvement if they return a bunch of experienced starters especially in the defensive backfield. Naturally a team that loses a bunch of starters especially their cornerbacks and safeties could see a significant drop in pass defense.

Another factor maybe how many starters are back on the defensive line. In many cases the ability to put pressure on a quarterback on a consistent basis determines the overall success of the pass defense. If a team cannot put pressure on a quarterback and the QB is given ample time to find an open receiver, it does not matter how good a defensive secondary is.

Finally, the way a team performs in allowing rush yards plays a big part. For example, if a defense is allowing a lot of yards rushing, their pass defense numbers may be better since teams are less likely to throw when they are already controlling the line of scrimmage. Also teams that score a lot of points offensively may allow a lot of defensive pass yards since teams will be trying to play catch up on the scoreboard. 

Whatever the case may be here are all the teams that improved by at least 100 ypg of pass defense compared to the prior season. Quick note for many of the smaller schools in the WAC, MAC and Sun Belt: My data only goes back to 1995 for those teams so it would include the last 15 years instead of the last 20.

Most Improved Pass Defense YPG L/20 Years

The most improved pass defense of the last 20 years was Chuck Amato’s 2004 NC State Wolfpack. In 2003 the Wolfpack returned just four starters from a 2002 defense that gave up just 17.0 ppg and 176 pass ypg. However, NC State fell dramatically to allow 284 pass ypg and 29.6 ppg. In 2004, the Wolfpack returned 9 starters and their numbers improved significantly allowing just 119 pass ypg, a 165 ypg improvement.

At #2 is the 2002 LSU Tigers. That year the Tigers returned 7 starters from a 2001 underperforming defense that gave up 281 pass ypg. However, in 2002 those numbers improved significantly as they allowed just 153 pass ypg.

At #3 is the 1997 Wyoming Cowboys who had a new coach in Dana Dimel who gave more attention to the defensive side of the ball and the Cowboys improved to allow 119 pass ypg less than the year before.

Now here is a look at all of the teams who gave up at least 100 pass ypg more than the prior year. Keep in mind again that my data only goes back to 1995 for some of the smaller schools.

Least Improved Pass Defense YPG L/20 Years

The least improved pass defense of the last 20 years is the 2003 Mississippi St Bulldogs who in Jackie Sherrill’s final year gave up 283 pass ypg which were the most in his 13 years at the helm and 129 ypg more than his ’02 sqaud.

The #2 least improved pass defense is the 1996 UNLV Rebels who returned just 5 starters back from a defense that allowed 152 pass ypg in 1995. In ’96, the Rebels gave up 274 pass ypg and overall allowed an incredible 544 total ypg and 45.9 ppg!

The #3 least improved pass defense is the 1998 Memphis Tigers who returned 8 starters from a defense that allowed 162 pass ypg in ’97. Shockingly, the Tigers would allow 281 pass ypg in ’98 but would improved the following year by 111 ypg.

Make sure you visit the PhilSteele.com homepage and check out several of the new features added in the past week including Phil Steele Videos, Players Lost for the Season, Facebook Forecasts and a Week-by-Week Schedule complete with up-to-date TV times.

I will be back on tomorrow with a look at the most/least improved total defenses from the last 20 years.

Only 38 Days Until the First College Football Game!!

I have been publishing a Most Improved Teams list since 1999 and the list hit a home run that very first year. I pegged Hawaii as my #1 Most Improved Team and they were coming off an 0-12 record in 1998. The then “Rainbow Warriors” simply set an NCAA record for largest improvement ever by going to 9-4 in 1999!

This year there are 19 teams on my Most Improved List and these are all teams that had losing records last year but ones I believe will be bowl eligible this year. Last season I had 22 teams on the list and 12 of them were bowl eligible at the end of the year! Do you think it is easy picking teams with losing records that will have a winning record the next year? 

I went back to 1992 and there have been 918 teams that had a losing season. Of those 918 teams only 261 had a winning record the next year which is 28.4%. That means if a team is coming off a losing season there is over a 70% chance that they will have another losing record the next year!

Over the last eight years 96 of the teams that have made my Most Improved List have been bowl eligible the next year. In that same eight-year span there have been 424 teams with a losing record and of those 424 only 111 have gone onto a winning record the next season (26.2%). Now you do the math here but as you can see very few teams go from a losing record to a bowl the next year if they are not on my Most Improved list.

This blog is about one that got away. It is not like I did not do my homework on Vanderbilt in 2008. In 2007, I liked them enough to put them #20 on My Most Improved List as they had 18 returning starters including their QB. Vandy appeared on their way at 3-1 but against Georgia, with the game tied, they fumbled at the UGA7 with 2:43 left and UGA was able to drive for the last play FG to beat them. Vandy missed two FG’s and an xp vs Kentucky and despite a 432-351 yard edge they lost at home by seven. A game-winning FG bounced off the upright and they lost to Tennessee by one. Change one play in any of those three games and Vandy would have been another team off a losing season (4-8 in ‘06) that became bowl eligible.

In ‘08 Vandy had three career starts returning on the offensive line, by far the lowest total I had ever seen from that position. They had just nine returning starters and I figured their window of opportunity had closed. Vandy benefitted from some great fortune that year. After five games they were #12 in the SEC on offense and #10 in the SEC on defense, much as I had expected. Amazingly they were 5-0! Somehow, someway, despite being outgained by an avg of 320-256 on the year (yes, 64 ypg!) they finished 7-6! I am not upset about not picking Vandy as their -64 ypg overall was the worst of any SEC team for the year and they just caught a lot of breaks during the year.

There was a team last year that I felt would finish last in their league but when I was doing their write up I felt the circumstances were very similar to Vanderbilt. Duke was a team I had high expectations for in 2008 and despite the fact that they were just 3-61 in the ACC during the decade I called for them to top Virginia in the ACC Coastal Division. Things looked great for that forecast as they opened the year 3-1 and walloped Virginia, 31-3, and at that point, UVA was not only 1-3 but was outscored by an avg of 32-9. The rest of the season did not go as I expected as Virginia rallied for five wins. Duke meanwhile led Miami, FL 24-14 and lost but they did beat the same Vandy team I talked about above on the road to go to 4-3. The Blue Devils lost in OT to Wake Forest (missed a 41-yd FG in regulation that would have won it), and then lost their star QB Thaddeus Lewis vs Clemson. They also lost to rival UNC by 8.

The ‘08 Duke squad had 16 returning starters and in ‘09 they had just 11 with their offensive line having just 25 career starts which was the 5th fewest in the NCAA. Going into the season my computer had them as a dog in nine of the 12 games. When I picked Vandy as a Most Improved Team in 2007, I was calling for them to get to their first bowl since 1982 and they accomplished that a year later with a less experienced squad. Duke has not been to a bowl since 1994 and is just 14-90 this decade and was less experienced than the 2008 version. I still felt the Blue Devils would finish last in the ACC Coastal and have their 15th straight losing season but there were plenty of parallels between the Duke of 2009 and the Vanderbilt of 2008. Coming into the season, the Blue Devils only had four ACC wins in the previous nine years but finished with three last year. In a game that ended up being the difference between a winning and losing season, they lost to FCS Richmond in the opener despite playing in front of a crowd of 33,311 (largest at home S/’01). They were outgained by Army 385-236 but won by 16 thanks to two late IR TD’s in a :16 span. After an expected 28-point loss to Kansas, they beat NC Central to go 2-2. They caught #6 Virginia Tech the week after the Hokies upset #9 Miami and only lost by eight. The next week Duke stunned NC State on the road with QB Lewis throwing for 459 yards and a 28-28 game turned into a 49-28 win. After a bye, they had a 394-249 yard edge and beat Maryland 17-13. Duke then beat Virginia on the road, 28-17, with a 424-196 yd edge and was 3-1 in the ACC (first time they had three wins in a row in the ACC S/’89). Unfortunately, they dropped their final four ACC games and did not go to a bowl game like Vanderbilt did in 2008 but they were very close.

So who is this year’s Vanderbilt?

I go right back to the ACC and look at NC State who is my pick to finish last in the Atlantic Division. Last year with a soft schedule it appeared the Wolfpack were poised for a big year. Against South Carolina they dropped a 32-yd TD pass at the end and the Gamecocks’ only TD was a 14-yd drive set up by a fumble. After a couple of wins over FCS teams, NC State had a 530-300 yd edge vs Pitt and won 38-31 for a solid 3-1 start. In their first road game, QB Russell Wilson had his int streak end with two picks and they lost 30-24. Duke had lost 20 straight ACC road games and despite the game being tied at 28 in the 3Q, NC State lost by 21. Injuries to the DB’s hurt as they allowed 52 pts to BC and 45 to Fla St and fell to 3-5. They got past lowly Maryland with a 482-270 yd edge but were then pounded by Clemson and VT before upsetting rival North Carolina in the finale. Over HC Tom O’Brien’s first three seasons he has 99 sts lost in 37 gms. They did have a def ypp of 11.6 last year and also qualify for my Turnovers=Turnaround (-11). The Wolfpack were 2-6 in the ACC and -53.5 ypg (4th worst). They lose 20 of 49 lettermen and have just 12 ret st’rs plus draw Virginia Tech and North Carolina out of the Coastal. They face nine bowl teams including three 2009 conf champs (GT, Cincy, ECU). While I still agree with my projection of the Wolfpack finishing last in the Atlantic, they have not caught a lot of breaks in O’Brien’s first three years. If their fortune turns around, this team is capable of breaking the streak of four straight losing seasons, despite the tough schedule and they could be the next team that did not live up to my expectations the previous year only to exceed my expectations the following year with a less experienced team just like Vanderbilt in 2008.

77 DAYS UNTIL THE FIRST COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME!!

Turnovers can have a huge impact on games and on a team’s season. They can also lead to many misleading final scores. During the season I list all of the previous week’s misleading final scores on PhilSteele.com in my Monday Daily Blog. By reading about them each week you can uncover some underrated and overrated teams throughout the season.

Here are a couple of examples from last year. Iowa St benefitted from +8 in TO’s vs Nebraska and pulled out a 9-7 win. Nebraska turned it over 4 times inside the 5 yard line and lost despite a 362-239 yard edge. The next 2 weeks Iowa St was overrated and they lost by a combined 69-18 vs Texas A&M and Oklahoma St despite only being slight underdogs in each.

Florida St appeared to pummel BYU 54-28 on the road but they only had a 512-475 yard edge as they benefitted from +5 in TO’s. The next week FSU entered the Top 25 but lost to USF at home as a 2 TD favorite 17-7 and BYU bounced back with a 42-23 whipping of Colorado St.

Turnovers can not only make a difference in a game but can make the difference between a winning and losing season.

Last year there was another GREAT example. In 2008, Buffalo won the MAC Title thanks mostly to being +19 in turnovers. They were actually outgained by an avg of 408-370 during the season! Last year they had 13 returning starters and this time outgained foes 405-343. That means they went from -38 ypg to +62 ypg (100 ypg better) but their record dropped to 5-7 as the TO’s were -7.

Teams that benefitted from double-digit turnovers the previous year rarely get a repeat of that good fortune. In the last 17 years, 252 teams have had double-digit plus turnovers. Of those 252, 162 have had weaker records the following year (64.3%). Only 58 teams (23.0%) have improved their record and the other 32 had the same record. Teams with a positive double-digit TO ratio had the same or weaker record 77.0% of the time since 1996. Listed below are last year’s most fortunate teams:

Last year 17 teams were in the “Going Down” box and only 4 managed to improve their record slightly including VTech which went from 10-4 to 10-3. The teams with the biggest dropoffs were Rice which went from 10-3 to 2-10 and Oklahoma (12-2 to 8-5).

As I previously stated, if a team received bad breaks the year before, they will usually be headed for better fortune the following year. In the past 17 years, there have been 208 teams that have finished the season minus double-digits in turnovers. Of those 208 teams, 143 (69%) have had better records the next year! Teams with a negative double-digit TO ratio had the same or stronger records 80% of the time since 1996. Which teams are headed for better fortunes and better seasons?

Last year a record high 17 teams made the “Going Up” box which meant they had suffered negative double digit turnovers in 2008 and were poised to receive better fortune. Of the 17 teams, 13 (or 76.5%!) had a better record than 2008, 1 had the same record and only 3 of the 17 (17.6%) had a weaker record. There were SIX teams on that list that went from a losing season to a bowl game! Those 6 teams were SMU, Idaho, Ohio U, Wyoming, Texas A&M and UCLA!!

Turnovers also have the same impact on the pro game. At first I figured that the NFL game would not show as much of a turnaround, but was actually surprised to see that the NFL game has had more turnarounds. First of all, the NFL season is 16 games long as opposed to 12 or 13 in college. With the extra NFL games, I upped the criteria from double-digit TO’s to plus or minus 12 turnovers or .75 per game. I then analyzed all the NFL teams since 1991 that have benefited from +12 turnovers or more. In that span of 19 years there have been a total of 65 teams that benefited from +12 turnovers or more. Of those 65, 47 or 72% had weaker records the next season including 13 of 14 (93%) over the last four seasons!! There were seven teams that had the same record. Only 11 of the 65 teams (17%) were able to improve their record the next season after benefiting from +12 turnovers or more.

Last year Miami (+17) made my “Going Down Box” and the Dolphins went from 11-5 in ’08 to just 7-9 last year. Tennessee was +14 in 2008 and finished the season 13-3. Last year the Titans did not catch the same breaks and they dropped to 8-8. Baltimore went 11-5 in ’08 and made an appearance in the AFC Champ game thanks in large part to being +13 in TO’s. Last year the Ravens did not have the same fortune and fell to 9-7.

Here are the teams that were +12 or more last year and could be heading to a disappointing season….Green Bay +23, New Orleans +18 and Philadelphia +12

As I previously stated, if a teams received bad breaks the year before, they will usually be headed for better fortune the following year. Once again I was very surprised the NFL game yielded even higher percentages. Since 1991, 63 NFL teams suffered from -12 turnovers or more. Of those 63 teams, an amazing 44 or 70% had a stonger record the next season and 7 had the same record the next year. Of the 63 teams with -12 turnovers or more, only 12 or 19% did not improve their record the next season!!

Here are some teams that could be heading to better finishes this year. Detroit (-18), St Louis (-13), Oakland (-13) and Cleveland (-12).

If you like this type of information, you will love the News and Notes section which is updated weekly at PhilSteele.com. I review such information as “Misleading Final Scores” and much, much more. Keep tabs on all of these teams this year and watch how turnovers WILL EQUAL turnaround in 2010!

The magazine is out everywhere right now so make sure you pick up your copy this week. My magazine is unlike other preseason magazines….which you buy, do a quick read thru and they sit on a shelf the rest of the year. If you buy Phil Steele’s College Football Preview it will be on your coffee table or desk ALL year because much of the statistics and analysis  are useful all the way into December.

Also please check PhilSteele.com everyday to get my Top 30 Countdown, which posted #4 TCU yesterday. Through June 16th, I will post both magazine pages on a new team ranked in the Top 30 and you can get an early look at my breakdown of your favorite team. Remember those magazine pages are available for only 24 hours for you to download. Today, defending national champ Alabama comes in at #3.

Only 80 DAYS LEFT UNTIL THE FIRST COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME!!!