Over the weekend I released my projected preseason AP Top 10 and I thought I would analyze another set of rankings for the upcoming season. A couple of weeks ago, several casinos released their odds for the 2011-12 BCS National Championship. While PhilSteele.com does not affiliate itself with gambling, I do think it is interesting to see how Vegas is examining the upcoming season.

Here are the Top 10 Favorites to win the title this upcoming year courtesy of Bodog.com.

1. Oklahoma             Odds: 7/2

If you checked out my projected AP Top 10 blog, you would have read that the Sooners are clearly the favorite going into next season and the odds certainly agree here. They return 15 starters on off/def including QB Jones, WR Broyles and LB Lewis. Their schedule sets up nicely with a bye before their road trip to Florida St (a team they dominated LY 47-17). In Big 12 play naturally there is the Red River Rivalry game vs Texas who is coming off a 5-7 season and the only other huge hurdle could be the season finale at Oklahoma St but the Sooners have won the Bedlam rivalry 8 straight times and have an overall mark of 82-16-7 vs their in-state rivals.

2. Alabama             Odds: 15/2

The Crimson Tide were my projected AP #2 team for 2011. Despite the losses of QB McElroy, RB Ingram and WR Jones and DT/DE Dareus, the Tide return 15 starters including 9 from a defense that figures to be among the best in the country. While they do have road trips to Penn St, Florida and Auburn none of those teams figure to be in the preseason top 10 so they have a great opportunity of being favored in every game this season.

3. Florida St             Odds: 10/1

The Noles return 16 starters, bring in one of the best frosh classes in the country and should be the ACC favorites. However, their schedule is not soft by any means as they host pre-season favorite Oklahoma and travel to Florida in non-conf play and have to play ACC Atlantic foes Clemson and Boston College on the road.

4. Boise St             Odds: 12/1

The Broncos return 14 starters including QB Moore. While they do move to the MWC and open the season vs Georgia in Atlanta, the Broncos get defending MWC champ TCU at home (where they have not lost a reg ssn gm since 2001) also get defending CUSA champ Tulsa at home and will probably be favored to win 11 of their 12 games.

4. LSU              Odds: 12/1

The Tigers return 15 starters from a team that surprised many going 11-2 last year. While they open the season with a huge showdown vs Oregon in Arlington, the Tigers will probably be favored to win the rest of the games with the exception of a road trip to Alabama later in the season. Road trips to Mississippi St and West Virginia in September will be tricky as well.

6. Oregon            Odds: 14/1

This year the Ducks return just 11 starters on off/def but get QB Thomas and Doak Walker winner RB James back from a offense that avg’d 47 ppg. UO does have a monster non-conf game vs LSU in the opener and have road trips to Arizona, Washington and Stanford but still will be the preseason favorite to win the Pac-10 for a third straight season.

7. Florida            Odds: 15/1

This one is a bit of a surprise since the Gators are coming off just an 8-5 season and have a new HC in Will Muschamp. UF does return 13 starters and have a lot of talent on hand thanks to some outstanding recruiting. However, rheir three-game stretch to start off October is as challenging as team will face during any stretch. (Bama, at LSU, at Auburn).

8. Nebraska      Odds: 18/1

It will be an interesting year for the Huskers as they move to the Big 10. They do return just 12 starters from last year’s team that again came up just short of the Big 12 title. One of the starters back is QB Martinez. As far as their schedule goes, the conference did them no favors with road games at Wisconsin, Penn St and Michigan along with home games vs Ohio St and Michigan.

9.  Penn St            Odds: 20/1

Another interesting pick here as the Nittany Lions are coming off just a 7-6 season. They do return 15 starters and their QB situation should be in much better shape this year. Home games vs Alabama and Iowa are their biggest tests before a 3 game stretch to close the season vs Nebraska, at Ohio St and at Wisconsin.

10. TCU            Odds: 20/1

The Horned Frogs are here naturally because of their great success over the past several seasons but they do return just 8 starters on off/def and lose their leader in QB Andy Dalton. Their schedule is not yet finalized as they are missing a couple of non-conf games but their biggest test looks to be a road game at Boise.

Here are some other odds:

Well here it is, my projected AP Top 10 for next year as of February 11, 2011! I will mention it now and I will mention it numerous times throughout today’s blog but this is not MY preseason Top 10 for next year, it is where I project the AP Top 10 to come out at the start of the season.

Most AP voters usually look at a couple of criteria when they evaluate a team for the upcoming season. First they look at the number of returning starters that the team has coming back particularly at the offensive skill positions. A team that returns its starting QB and a combination of its RB and WRs is often times more highly thought of than a team that loses its starting QB but returns its entire offensive line. Similarly a team that returns most of its starters on offense but loses a lot of its defensive playmakers usually is more highly thought of than a team that returns a majority of its defensive starters but loses its skill position players on offense.

Another factor that is heavily weighted is the performance of the team in the bowl game, which undoubtedly is the lasting image of that team in the offseason. A team coming off a huge bowl win usually is more highly thought of than a team that is coming off a bowl loss regardless of what their schedule looks like for the upcoming season.

Using these criteria and a few more, I project the preseason AP Top 10 every year at the conclusion of the previous season, which in most cases is nearly 6 months in advance. Now as you all know, a lot can happen from January to August including injuries, suspensions, transfers, etc.

In 2009, my projected Top 10 for the AP Poll was #1 Florida, #2 Texas, #3 USC, #4 Oklahoma, #5 Alabama, #6 Virginia Tech, #7 LSU, #8 Oklahoma St, #9 Ohio St and #10 Mississippi. The actual AP Top 10 was #1 Florida, #2 Texas, #3 Oklahoma, #4 USC, #5 Alabama, #6 Ohio St, #7 Virginia Tech, #8 Mississippi and #9 was a tie between Oklahoma St/Penn St.

I nailed nine of the ten teams that appeared in the Preseason Top 10 with the only exception being LSU/Penn St and I may have had something to do with that. It’s interesting to note that of the main preseason magazines, only two had Penn St ranked in the Top 10 and I had them my #1 surprise team and ranked #5. Most had Penn St out of the Top 10. Perhaps since I had them rated so high in my magazine, it influenced a few voters across the country, bumping them into the Top 10.

Last year I projected the preseason AP Top 10 would be #1 Alabama, #2 Ohio St, #3 Boise St, #4 Oregon, #5 Texas, #6 TCU, #7 Iowa, #8 Florida, #9 Nebraska and #10 Virginia Tech.

The actual AP Top 10 was #1 Alabama, #2 Ohio St, #3 Boise St, #4 Florida, #5 Texas, #6 TCU, #7 Oklahoma, #8 Nebraska, #9 Iowa and #10 Virginia Tech.

For the second year in a row I nailed nine of the ten teams that appeared in the Preseason Top 10 with the only exception being Oregon/Oklahoma, which I can defend easily.

First, at the time I wrote my projection back in early February Duck QB Jeremiah Masoli was not yet suspended. With Masoli still in the fold at that point Oregon had 17 returning starters including RB LaMichael James and Masoli in the backfield. The Ducks clearly would have been a preseason Top 10 team and probably Top 5 had Masoli not been kicked off the team. Even without Masoli Oregon was still rated #11 in the preseason poll.

The team that I did not have in my projected AP Top 10 was Oklahoma (#7) and if you have purchased last year’s magazine or listed to one of my radio shows across the country you know I thought very highly of the Sooners as I had them ranked #1. Like Penn St last year perhaps since I had them rated so high in my magazine, it influenced a few voters across the country, bumping them into the Top 10 despite the Sooners having five losses in 2009 and the fact that they did not even finish in the final AP Top 25.

I also am pleased that six of the 10 teams were ranked in the exact position that I projected including the top 3 in Alabama, Ohio St and Boise St. I also had Texas, TCU and Virginia Tech ranked in their exact positions in the poll.
Now let’s take a look at this year’s projected Preseason AP Top 10:

#10 SOUTH CAROLINA-Last year the Gamecocks returned 16 starters (#2 SEC) and had only 11 lettermen lost. They also signed one of the best frosh classes ever which included my PS#1 RB Marcus Lattimore. In my magazine I said that SC was a legit SEC contender and they even made my list of Surprise Teams (darkhorse national title contender).  They didn’t disappoint beating #1 defending champ Alabama at home and getting a key win on the road vs Florida as SC made their first appearance in the SEC Champ game. They did finish the season with consecutive losses but this year return 7 starters on offense including QB Garcia and RB Lattimore and figure to be the favorites to repeat as SEC East Division champs.

#9 OKLAHOMA ST-Last year the Cowboys were one of the least experienced teams in the entire country coming into the season with just 8 returning starters. However, HC Gundy did an outstanding job leading them to their most wins in a season in school history and this year despite the loss of OC Holgorsen and RB Hunter, the Cowboys return 9 starters including QB Weeden and Biletnikoff winner Blackmon from an offense that avg’d 44 ppg. The Cowboys do have tough road games at Texas A&M, Texas, Texas Tech and Missouri and that is why they will not be ranked even higher in the preseason AP Poll.
#8 FLORIDA ST-HC Fisher inherited a good situation last year as they were loaded on offense with 9 returning starters and they got most of their toughest ACC foes at home. 7 of my 9 sets of power ratings called for their first double digit win season since 2003 and they did just that beating in-state rival Florida, getting to the ACC champ game and then beating South Carolina in the bowl game. This year they return 16 starters, bring in one of the best frosh classes in the country and should be the ACC favorites.

#7 BOISE ST-Last year the Broncos were one of the most experienced teams in the country with 20 returning starters and started out #3 in the AP Poll. A win over Virginia Tech in the opener had them thinking national title but a heartbreaking loss to Nevada in OT late in the year cost them a BCS Bid. Nonetheless they still won 12+ games for the third year in a row and this year return 14 starters including QB Moore. While they do move to the MWC and open the season vs Georgia in Atlanta, the Broncos get defending MWC champ TCU at home (where they have not lost a reg ssn gm since 2001) and will probably be favored to win 11 of their 12 games.

#6 TEXAS A&M-Last year I thought the Aggies were a much stronger team than their previous seasons and they made my Most Improved List. After struggling to a 3-3 start HC Sherman made the bold move to bench QB Johnson for backup Tannehill and the Aggies preceded to roll off 6 straight wins including wins over Big 12 powers Oklahoma, Nebraska and Texas en route to only their second 9 win season since 2000. This year they bring back 17 starters on off/def including Tannehill and get Oklahoma St, Missouri and Texas at home.

#5 STANFORD-Last year 3 of my 9 sets of power ratings called for an 11-1 season and after my magazine was published in May, the Cardinal were one of the teams that I thought probably should have been higher in my ratings in my mag come late August. Led by QB Luck, the Cardinal simply went out and had one of their best seasons in school history finishing 12-1 with a dominating win over Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl. This year the Cardinal lose HC Harbaugh to the 49ers but will still be a AP top 5 pick because Luck surprisingly decided to come back for another year and he is probably not only one of the Heisman favorites but also the top NFL prospect in college this year.

#4 LSU-Last year the Tigers returned just 10 starters but surprised many finishing the season 11-2 with a dominating win over Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl. This year they return 8 starters from an offense that avg’d 30 ppg including QB Jefferson who improved his play down the stretch. While they open the season with a huge showdown vs Oregon in Arlington, the Tigers will probably be favored to win the rest of the games with the exception of a road trip to Alabama later in the season.

#3 OREGON-Last year 8 of my 9 sets of power ratings called the Ducks the best team in the Pac-10 and they didn’t disappoint running through their regular season a perfect 12-0 before losing a heartbreaker in the national title game to Auburn. This year the Ducks return just 11 starters on off/def but get QB Thomas and Doak Walker winner RB James back from a offense that avg’d 47 ppg. UO does have a monster non-conf game vs LSU in the opener and have road trips to Arizona, Washington and Stanford but still will be the preseason favorite to win the Pac-10 for a third straight season.

#2 ALABAMA-Last year the Crimson Tide were coming off B2B 12-0 regular seasons and anything less than a repeat national title was going to be a disappointment. While the Tide did finish just 10-3, when they were playing their “A” game as evidence of the 1H of the Auburn game and the Capital One bowl vs 11-1 Michigan St, they were clearly one of the best teams in the country. This year despite the losses of QB McElroy, RB Ingram and WR Jones, the Tide return 15 starters including 9 from a defense that figures to be among the best in the country. While they do have road trips to Penn St, Florida and Auburn none of those teams figure to be in the preseason top 10 so they have a great opportunity of being favored in every game this season.

#1 OKLAHOMA-Last year I surprised many by ranking the Sooners as my #1 team in my pre-season magazine despite coming off a 5-loss season in 2009. While they did not win the national title, the Sooners did go 12-2 winning the Big 12 title and dominated UConn in the Fiesta Bowl. This year OU will be ranked #1 in the pre-season by nearly everyone as they return 15 starters on off/def including QB Jones, WR Broyles and LB Lewis. Their schedule sets up nicely with a bye before their road trip to Florida St (a team they dominated LY 47-17). In Big 12 play naturally there is the Red River Rivalry game vs Texas who is coming off a 5-7 season and the only other huge hurdle could be the season finale at Oklahoma St but the Sooners have won the Bedlam rivalry 8 straight times and have an overall mark of 82-16-7 vs their in-state rivals. With their key returning starters back and a favorable schedule, the Sooners should get the nod as the Preseason AP #1 team!

THOSE THAT JUST MISSED OUT:

I mentioned at the start of the blog that last year I had nine of the top 10 teams correctly predicted and it was the same case in 2009 where I also missed out by 1. If one of the team’s I have projected in the Top 10 doesn’t make the polls, there are 4 teams that have a shot at jumping into the Top 10.

Right now, I would project Ohio State to be #11 heading into the season and the only reason they are this low is the fact that several of their key players including QB Pryor and their top RB and WR will miss the first 5 games. Also their first game back is a road trip to Nebraska but I still feel with their strong finish to the 2010 season and the fact that they have won or shared 6 straight Big 10 titles will get them the nod over the Cornhuskers.

At #12 in the AP poll should be Nebraska who returns QB Martinez and 7 starters on defense. Nebraska would have been higher but there has been some turmoil already this past off-season and they were unimpressive in their bowl game.

The rest of the teams are #13 Arkansas and #14 Wisconsin.

There you have it – My projections for the AP Preseason Top 10. As mentioned a couple of times in this article, these WILL NOT BE THE TOP 10 IN MY MAGAZINE. As you know, I tend to go out on a limb in a lot of cases and have a lot of surprise picks in my magazine. Those will be unveiled at the start of June when my magazine hits the newsstands but when the first AP poll comes out in August this year, go ahead and take this list and compare it and you’ll find that probably 9 or maybe even all 10 will be in the Preseason AP Top 10 this year.

The Bowl confidence contest is under way and Congratulations to the top four players who all have perfect scores thru the first three games with a perfect 102 pts. However many times the players that rank in the top early are those that wagered the most pts and if you are not on the top leaderboard right now, naturally you still have plenty of opportunities to rise up/fall down the standings in the coming weeks.

Last year we expanded the contest to nearly 1200 contestants, which was double from any other previous season and this year we more than doubled the number of contestants with nearly 3000 entries!

So far thru 3 games a lot of people already have one loss as 64.5% of you picked Fresno St and they were beaten by Northern Illinois. Also only 56.6% of you had Troy winning so the remaining 43.4% of you who picked Ohio in the New Orleans bowl also lost. Most of you (92%) had BYU winning and that came as no surprise as they rolled over UTEP. Here are the top 10 picksheets so far after the first 3 bowl games.

Top 10 Overall Standings

Last year we had four different radio stations participate with their own groups and this year we expanded to a dozen different groups.

Here are the total number of contestants for the major groups and the current leaders.

WKNR Cleveland, Ohio w/Michael Reghi
(236 Contestants)

WVSP Virginia Beach, Virginia w/Tony Mercurio
(202 Contestants)

STO Cleveland, Ohio w/Bruce Drennan
(172 Contestants)

Erik Kuselias (114 Contestants)

KMBE Houston, Texas w/Charlie Pallilo
(94 Contestants)

WDFN Detroit, Michigan w/Sean Baligian
(53 Contestants)

For complete overall standings or each individual group click here.

Another new feature this year is the pick statistics for each game. I find this interesting to see the percentages of who you think will win each game and how many confidence points on average were selected for each team.

Here are all the bowl games ranked in order on the percentages of each game with your picks in bold.

Pick Percentages

To no surprise Oklahoma takes the top spot as 97.3% of you picked the Sooners to beat Connecticut in the Fiesta Bowl. Also high on the list was Boise St 96.2% and in a rematch from earlier this year 95.8% of you picked Nebraska to beat Washington for a second time this season. It was interesting to see that 65.2% of you picked Wisconsin to upset TCU in the Rose Bowl and down at the bottom was Notre Dame with only 52.7% of you predicting the Irish to upset Miami in the Sun Bowl.

Another way to look at how you voted is to see the average number of confidence pts wagered on each game. These points totals should be close to the overall % but that will not always be the case as many of you could have picked Miami, Ohio by a large confidence pts while others of you could have picked Middle Tennessee by that same confidence total. Here are the top Confidence pt averages with the % rank in the left.

Confidence Points Avg.

Just like the percentages, the Fiesta Bowl saw most of you wagering the highest confident point total and again most of you picked Oklahoma to win. The Holiday Bowl came in 2nd this time with 27.3 confidence pts with most of you picking Nebraska but there were a couple of interesting notes. Despite being just #9 in the percentage rank the Capital One Bowl saw an average of 23.5 pts which was the 4th highest. Also the Sun Bowl had an average of 14.4 pts, which was higher than 8 other bowls. This means that while only 52.7% picked Notre Dame, you picked the Irish with a higher point total and the 47.3% of you who picked Miami, Fl also picked the Hurricanes with a high point total.

1. The Seminoles enjoyed a surprisingly easy 45-17 win over Miami. It was the second-most points Florida State scored in the series, and just the fifth time in 55 games that a team enjoyed as big a win. Christian Ponder threw for 173 yards and two touchdowns for Florida State which is off to their best start in conference play since 2005.

2. South Carolina QB Stephen Garcia completed 17 of 20 passes (85%) for 201 yds and 3 TD’s in the Gamecocks 35-21 win over #1 Alabama snapping the Crimson Tide’s 19 game winning streak and also giving them their first win over a #1 team in school history. Garcia picked up a critical fourth-and-1 on the Gamecocks final scoring drive and his only interception came off a bobbled pass.

3. Nebraska QB Taylor Martinez ran for 242 yards (16.1) and four touchdowns, breaking the single-game school record for rushing by a quarterback in Nebraska’s 48-13 win over Kansas St. Martinez also threw for 128 yds and a TD and now has 737 yds rushing on the season in just five games.

4. Illinois got their 1st ever win at PSU. The Illini dominated a Lions D (minus 11 regulars by gm’s end due to inj/susp) rolling up 23-7 FD & 282-65 rush yd edges.

5. Utah fell behind 14-10 after 1Q, but score 31 unanswered pts and cruised to a 68-27 win over Iowa St. The Utes finished with 28-19 FD and 593-348 yd edges and pulled QB Wynn after 3Q’s.

6. The “Mad Hatter” strikes again as LSU HC Les Miles called a fake FG w/less than a minute remaining and the Tigers went on to score a TD with just seconds remaining as they upset Florida 33-29.

7. TCU finished with 578-191 yd and 27-8 FD edges in a 45-0 beating of Wyoming. In the L/2 gms TCU has outFD’d (51-16) and outgained (1052-352) foes and pitched B2B shutouts for the 1st time in 55 years.

8. California returned to their winning ways vs UCLA as the Bears held a UCLA run game that was avg 321 ypg rush (5.9) to a meager 26 yds (1.0) on the ground.

1. Nebraska overwhelmed Washington with a 534-246 yd edge in their 56-21 win. Husker QB Martinez was the story as he ran for 137 yds (7.2) and three TD’s including the longest TD run by a freshman in Nebraska history (80 yds) and threw for another 150 yards (63.6%) and a score.

2. Boise St-The Broncos need to impress the voters each and every week if they want to remain in the top 3. Yesterday they did just that with a dominating 50-6 win at Wyoming as they had an incredible 647-136 yd edge. Boise held Wyoming to -22 yds rushing and welcome a visit from ESPN College Gameday this week as they host Oregon St.

3. Alabama-The Tide welcomed the return of Heisman winner Mark Ingram and he was impressive with 152 yds on just 9 carries (16.9) and 2 TD’s as they crushed Duke 62-13. Bama was incredibly balanced on offense with 315 yds rushing and 312 yds passing.

4. Oregon-The Ducks have already had 3 great performances on the season and yesterday they crushed FCS Portland St 69-0. Oregon’s avg MOV this year is 63-4 and yesterday they outgained their opponent by 524 yds.

5. TCU-The Horned Frog defense was one of my defenses of the week and they came thru for me by holding down Baylor QB Griffin and the Bears to just 10 pts and 263 yds. TCU QB Dalton was pin-point accurate as he completed his first 11 passes and finished 21-for-23 for 267 yards and two TD’s. His 91.3 completion percentage tied Sam Bradford and Jared Zambransky for the highest by an FBS passer in a single game (min. 20 attempts) since 2004.

6. Stanford-The Cardinal have been very impressive so far this season and last night was no different as they crushed Wake Forest 68-24 as they rolled up 535 total yds. They will put their high ranking to test this week as they travel to Notre Dame who is in must-win mode after dropping two straight to Michigan and Michigan St.

7. Oklahoma St-So far HC Mike Gundy’s move to bring in former Houston OC Dana Holgorsen looks bold as the Cowboys offense continues to roll with an outstanding 722 yds of offense in the 65-28 win over Tulsa.

8. Ohio St-The Buckeyes jumped out early over Ohio (33-0 in the 2Q) before coasting late in the 43-7 win. Ohio St’s defense was another one of my top defenses of the week in my fantasy blog and they came thru holding the Bobcats to just 161 total yds.

9. Air Force-The Falcons off a 35-14 win over BYU last week nearly beat Oklahoma yesterday as the Sooners almost blew a 27-10 lead as they allowed a couple of TD’s in the 4Q. Air Force’s vaunted option gave the Sooner D all they can handle as they rolled up 343 rush yds and actually outgained Oklahoma 450-387.

10. Texas-The Longhorns got payback for their last visit to Lubbock as they beat Texas Tech 24-14. Their defense was the story as they held the high-powered Red Raider offense to just 176 total yds.

Over the weekend the preseason AP Top 25 was released with defending national champ Alabama clearly ranked #1. Every year I am particularly intrigued by who is placed in the preseason AP Top 10 as I try to predict what those teams will be shortly after the previous season is completed.

Most AP voters usually look at a couple of criteria when they evaluate a team for the upcoming season. First they look at the number of returning starters that the team has coming back particularly at the offensive skill positions. A team that returns its starting QB and a combination of its RB and WRs is often times more highly thought of than a team that loses its starting QB but returns its entire offensive line. Similarly a team that returns most of its starters on offense but loses a lot of its defensive playmakers usually is more highly thought of than a team that returns a majority of its defensive starters but loses its skill position players on offense.

Another factor that is heavily weighted is the performance of the team in the bowl game, which undoubtedly is the lasting image of that team in the offseason. A team coming off a huge bowl win usually is more highly thought of than a team that is coming off a bowl loss regardless of what their schedule looks like for the upcoming season.
Using these criteria and a few more, I project the preseason AP Top 10 every year at the conclusion of the previous season, which in most cases is nearly 7 months in advance. Now as you all know, a lot can happen from January to August and for further proof on that check on my players lost list, which is all the changes that have been made for each team since my magazine was published in May.

Last year my projected Top 10 for the AP Poll was #1 Florida, #2 Texas, #3 USC, #4 Oklahoma, #5 Alabama, #6 Virginia Tech, #7 LSU, #8 Oklahoma St, #9 Ohio St and #10 Mississippi. The actual AP Top 10 was #1 Florida, #2 Texas, #3 Oklahoma, #4 USC, #5 Alabama, #6 Ohio St, #7 Virginia Tech, #8 Mississippi and#9 was a tie between Oklahoma St/Penn St.

I nailed nine of the ten teams that appeared in the Preseason Top 10 with the only exception being LSU/Penn St and I may have had something to do with that. It’s interesting to note that of the main preseason magazines, only two had Penn St ranked in the Top 10 and I had them my #1 surprise team and ranked #5. Most had Penn St out of the Top 10. Perhaps since I had them rated so high in my magazine, it influenced a few voters across the country, bumping them into the Top 10.

This year way back in my February 2nd Blog, I projected the preseason AP Top 10 would be #1 Alabama, #2 Ohio St, #3 Boise St, #4 Oregon, #5 Texas, #6 TCU, #7 Iowa, #8 Florida, #9 Nebraska and #10 Virginia Tech.

The actual AP Top 10 which came out over the weekend was #1 Alabama, #2 Ohio St, #3 Boise St, #4 Florida, #5 Texas, #6 TCU, #7 Oklahoma, #8 Nebraska, #9 Iowa and #10 Virginia Tech.

For the second year in a row I nailed nine of the ten teams that appeared in the Preseason Top 10 with the only exception being Oregon/Oklahoma, which I can defend easily.

First, at the time I wrote my projection back in early February Duck QB Jeremiah Masoli was not yet suspended. With Masoli still in the fold at that point Oregon had 17 returning starters including RB LaMichael James and Masoli in the backfield. The Ducks clearly would have been a preseason Top 10 team and probably Top 5 had Masoli not been kicked off the team. Even without Masoli Oregon was still rated #11 in the preseason poll.

The team that I did not have in my projected AP Top 10 was Oklahoma (#7) and if you have purchased my magazine or listed to one of my radio shows across the country you know I think very highly of the Sooners this year as I have them ranked #1. Like Penn St last year perhaps since I had them rated so high in my magazine, it influenced a few voters across the country, bumping them into the Top 10 despite the Sooners having five losses last year and the fact that they did not even finish in the final AP Top 25.

I also am pleased that six of the 10 teams are ranked in the exact position that I projected way back in February including the top 3 in Alabama, Ohio St and Boise St. I also had Texas, TCU and Virginia Tech ranked in their exact positions in the poll.

So there you have it, next year when you see my preseason AP Top 10 projection in late January or early February go ahead and compare it to the first AP poll that will come out several months later and I know you’ll find that probably 9 or maybe even all 10 will be in the Preseason AP Top 10.

Only 10 Days Until the First College Football Game!

Today’s blog will start a series, which will analyze the most/least improved units over the last 20 years. Each day this week I will have a new offensive or defensive statistical category to examine and today I will start with offensive rush yards.

There are many factors that contribute to a significant change in rush yards. First, a new coach may come in and prefer a more run-oriented attack than the previous coach. Naturally a lot more rushing carries will usually equal a lot more yards. Similarly you may see a significant drop in rush yards if the new coach features a pass-happy offense than the previous coach.

Another factor team which could contribute to a large gain in rush yards may be that the team is starting a young quarterback and they will want to focus on the running game more to take the pressure off the inexperienced signal caller. Similarly, a large drop off in rush yards may occur when the team has an experienced quarterback, but has to replace their star RB from the year before.  Also a team may feature an experienced Heisman-caliber running back and in that case they will give him many more carries thus increasing the rush output. Finally, a team that returns most of their offensive lineman who are multiple-year starters will usually see an increase in rush yards.

Whatever the case may be here are all the teams that improved by at least 100 yards rushing compared to the prior season. Quick note for many of the smaller schools in the WAC, MAC and Sun Belt: my data only goes back to 1995 for those teams so it would include the last 15 years instead of the last 20.

Most Improved Rush YPG L/20 Years

The 1995 Navy Midshipmen has the most improved rush attack in the last 20 years avg an amazing 234 ypg which was 178 ypg more than the meager 56 ypg they averaged in 1994. Probably the biggest reason for this large gain was the hiring of Utah St coach Charlie Weatherbie who instituted a run-heavy offense.

There were several factors going in Army’s favor in 2008. First I have pointed out in my magazine several times that service academies usually graduate a good portion of their starting OL, however Army’s ’08 group had five back with starting experience. Also Army was shifting back to the option offense and returned their top four rushers. Add all of these factors up and you get the 2^nd most improved rush attack of the last 20 years.

At #3 is Buffalo who went from avg just 80 ypg in 1997 to 224 ypg in 1998. In 2003, the Michigan St Spartans had their weakest rush attack in at least 50 years when they averaged just 97 ypg (3.2). Much of this had to do with their reliance on senior QB Jeff Smoker who left as MSU’s leader in passing yards and total offense. In 2004, the Spartans tried several QBs but finally settled on Drew Stanton who was a running threat. With this added dimension and the emergence of RB Javon Ringer, the Spartan rush attack improved to avg 239 ypg.

Now here is a look at all of the teams who averaged at least 100 rush ypg less than the prior year. Keep in mind again that my data only goes back to 1995 for some of the smaller schools.

Least Improved Rush YPG L/20 Years

After my numbers and data were crunched, the #1 least improved rush attack of the last 20 years came at no surprise. The 2008 Arkansas rush attack had several factors going against it. First, new head coach Bobby Petrino was hired and was implementing a more pass-oriented attack. Second, while they had 7 of their top 10 OL back, they were switching schemes, which led to the unit being down a few notches. Finally and most importantly, the Hogs lost the best trio of RB’s the NCAA had seen in some time as Darren McFadden (1,830 yds), Felix Jones (1,162 yds) and Peyton Hillis (347 yds) all left and took their talents to the NFL. Add these factors up and the Razorbacks avg 173 rush ypg less in 2008.

Thanks to the graduation of star RB DeAngelo Williams (1,964 rush yds), the 2006 Memphis Tigers come in at #2 with a 156 ypg drop-off. Tied at #3 is the 1998 Nebraska Cornhuskers and the 2001 TCU Horned Frogs who avg 153 rush ypg less than the previous year. The ‘98 Huskers were coming off the national title in Tom Osborne’s final season and they had to replace four starters on their OL.  Most importantly they also lost RB Ahman Green and QB Scott Frost who combined to rush for 3,238 yards and 46 TDs in ’97 and while their replacements were talented, they were much less experienced. Similarly the 2001 Horned Frogs lost their star player in 2001 in Ladainian Tomlinson who rushed for 2,276 yards in 2000.

I will be back tomorrow with a look at the most/least improved pass attacks from the last 20 years.

Please check out the PhilSteele.com homepage and take at look at my Top 25 FCS Countdown which continues with #2 Appalachian St today. Click on the link to get the entire full magazine page layout on the Mountaineers but remember the page will be available for only 24 hours to download.

Also Josh Buchanan of JBScouting.com does a great job of scouting FCS players and teams and he also helps me with some of the team write-ups in my FCS magazine. In the July 14th blog, I gave you his top 5 players at each offensive position and here are his top 5 players at each position on the defensive side. Also each Monday between now and the draft next April he will hold a question and answer session where he will sit down and answer your questions each week.  If you have a question about a player, the draft process, or anything related to small school football you can ask him a question by CLICKING HERE!  Make sure to leave your email address if you want the answer sent directly to you as well and regardless if you want a private answer as well please leave your name and where you are from to be published in the blog.

DEFENSIVE ENDS

1. Christian Anthony, Grambling State, Sr.
2. Christian Clark, Sacramento State, Sr.
3. Markell Carter, Central Arkansas, Sr.
4. Malcolm Taylor, Alcorn State, Sr.
5. Jabari Fletcher, Appalachian State, Sr.

DEFENSIVE TACKLES

1. Martin Parker, Richmond, Sr.
2. Kenrick Ellis, Hampton, Sr.
3. Renard Williams, Eastern Washington, Jr.
4. Brent Russell, Georgia Southern, Soph.
5. Dan Ogden, Montana State, Sr.

OUTSIDE LINEBACKERS

1. J.C. Sherritt, Eastern Washington, Sr.
2. D.J. Smith, Appalachian State, Sr.
3. Eric McBride, Richmond, Sr.
4. Marty Patterson, Gardner-Webb, Sr.
5. Derek Domino, South Dakota State, Sr.

INSIDE LINEBACKERS

1. Jabara Williams, Stephen F. Austin, Sr.
2. Bryce Smith, Samford, Sr.
3. Jake Trantin, William & Mary, Jr.
4. Kadarron Anderson, Furman, Jr.
5. Joshua Jones, Elon, Jr.

CORNERBACKS

1. Korey Lindsey-Woods, Southern Illinois, Sr.
2. Trumaine Johnson, Montana, Jr.
3. Josh Norman, Coastal Carolina, Jr.
4. Justin Rogers, Richmond, Sr.
5. Jeremy Caldwell, Eastern Kentucky, Jr.

FREE SAFETIES

1. Mike McElroy, Southern Illinois, Sr.
2. Jason House, Southern, Sr.
3. Matt Estrada, Northern Arizona, Sr.
4. Max Hewitt, Northern Colorado, Sr.
5. Collin Zych, Harvard, Sr.

STRONG SAFETIES

1. Mark LeGree, Appalachian State, Sr.
2. Eugene Clifford, Tennessee State, Sr.
3. Conrad Kjerstad, South Dakota State, Sr.
4. James Vercammen, Dayton, Sr.
5. Tommy Connors, Southeastern Louisiana, Sr.

 Only 45 Days Until the First College Football Game!!

Many of you have asked me for an updated Bowl Projections listing since USC was eliminated from bowl contention recently. In the magazine which went to press before the NCAA’s ruling I projected the Trojans to go to the Rose Bowl. Naturally most of my Pac-10 selections for bowls have changed with the ineligibility of USC. Oregon now gets my pick to go to the Rose Bowl and a lot of the other Pac-10 teams get bumped up. Here are my current projections for all 35 of this year’s bowl games which includes the BCS Championship game.

2010-2011 Bowl Schedule and Projections