By Phil Steele

GAMES NOTES:

Troy had a 23-10 FD edge and 472-328 yd edge but Middle Tenn at home came away with a fortunate victory and Troy clinched a losing season. Troy was int’d on their 2nd poss and ret’d 22 yds to their 25 and MT got a 37 yd FG on a 20 yd drive. Troy went 60/9pl but fmbl’d at the 2 and on the next play, Parker got a 98 yd td run for MT, 10-0. Troy went 80/11pl for a td. Troy fmbl’d at the MT6 after a 42/5pl drive. MT got a 66 yd pass to Parker to the 28 but had a 43 yd FG blk’d. Troy had a punt blk’d 4pl later and MT got a 26 yd FG, 13-7 (6:26 2Q). At half MT had a 251-223 yd edge. Troy opened the 3Q with a 78/10pl drive and a 4 yd td pass put them up 14-13. 5 punts. Troy went 45/7pl but on FD from the MT33 fmbl’d and it was ret’d 59 yds to the 8. MT got a 21 yd FG on a 4 yd drive to lead 16-14. MT fmbl’d at the Troy44 on its next drive and Troy went 56/8pl for a td with 9:06 left for a 21-16 lead. MT was int’d on a deep pass and ret’d 43 yds to their 47. Troy got 1 FD and was int’ and ret’d 77 yds for a td with 5:48 left, the 2 pt conversion made it 24-21. Troy got 2 FD and on 4&4 fired incomplete at the MT27 with 2:46 left and MT got 1 FD and ran the clock. Read more…

By Phil Steele

GAMES NOTES:

Ball St solidified its bowl standing and Ohio’s banged up team kept sliding. The Bobcats missed as many as 10 players due to injury but did only trail 21-17 at the half. Ball St lost their starting QB Keith Wenning who hit 16-20-172. Veteran Kelly Page came in and ran 7 yards for a td on his only play of the 1H and OU did get to the BSU12 with :12 left in the half but was sacked on the final play and did not score. OU got a 58 yd td run by Blankenship on the first drive of the 2H to take a 24-21 lead but Ball got a 68 yd Edwards run keying a 71/2pl drive for a td and OU missed a 27 yd FG. After 2 punts, BSU went 59/10pl for a 38 yd FG and OU went on an 11pl drive for a 34 yd FG, 31-27. Ball, after a 46 yard KR and a 15 yd penalty on a personal foul, drove 38/1pl for a td then after a punt went 65/6pl for a td and after OU went 3&out again, went 77/8pl for a td and turned it into a 52-27 rout with 2:18 left. Page hit just 5-7-41 rushing 4x’s for 34 yards.

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By Phil Steele

Ka’Deem Carey had 366 yards and had 5 td’s. The old Pac-12 record was set by Washington St’s Rueben Mayes on Oct 27, 1984. Arizona was without QB Matt Scott and QB BJ Denker hit 12-14-136 and rushed for 44 on 9 carries vs Colorado. Decker fumbled the snap on the first play at his own 7 and CU got a td on the next play, 7-0. UA went 80/9pl and 64/8pl, 49/2pl for td’s on the next 3 poss with CU settling for an 18 yd FG, 21-10. CU still got a 73/13pl drive for a td with 2:44 left 1H to get to 21-17 and then Denker hit a 21 yd td pass with 1:11 left capping a 79/6pl drive. UA led 28-17 at the half with a 272-228 yd edge and UA again went 73/6pl, 49/7pl, 81/2pl for 3 td’s on 3 straight drives, 49-17. CU, trailing 56-31, was SOD on 4&gl at the UA9 with 2:54 left.

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#23 Toledo takes on Ball St today. For the Top 25 Forecast and the projections you would normally see on Friday – head on over to PhilSteele.com today!

INTERESTING NOTE:
Nine of the 15 teams that made my Most Improved List featured in this year’s magazine have already clinched bowl bids and there is still a month left!!

GAMES NOTES:

Jordan Lynch only accounted for 3 td’s for Northern Illinois despite the final being 63-0 vs overmatched Massachusetts. NI played 2 backup QB’s leaving Lynch in for just the first series of the 3Q and he left with them up 42-0. UMass went for it on 4th down 4 times in the 1H on 4&2 at the NI47, 4&9 at the NI50, 4&2 at the NI27 and 4&8 at the NI7 and all 4 times, failed. They fumbled on their first two 3Q poss and were SOD on 4&6 at the NI46.

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GAMES NOTES

Giovani Bernard ran for 177 yards and North Carolina had a 485-415 yard edge. Stephen Morris was having a fine game for Miami and had hit just 12-26-155 yds. He had some crucial runs for 40 yds on 7 carries. He was helped off the field with 8:26 left. Bkp Ryan Williams hit 9-13-80. NC led 7-0 when they were int’d at the UM25 then on the next drive missed a 33 yd FG. UM punted but roughing the P kept the drive alive and they would go 80/12pl for a td. NC led 15-7 at the half with a 313-191 yd edge. UM got to 15-14 after a delay of game pen had then go for just a regular xp. NC got a 48 yd FG then missed a 43 yd FG. UM went 48/13 and on 3&6 was SOD at the NC26. Their final drive got to the NC29 but on 4&16 they gained 11 yds with :22 left.

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GAMES NOTES:

Any time the weather gets cold for Miami, they tend not to show up so Notre Dame had a large edge in the unusually chilly temps in Chicago. UM was also off two wire-to-wire gut wrenching ACC conf games and now travelling in a non-conf game. As you would expect, ND had a 34-13 FD edge, 587-285 yd edge and held the ball for 39:08 to UM’s 20:52. Both teams were ranked in the top 10 when they met in four consecutive years from ‘87-’90 with the winner going on to win the National Title 3 straight years. UM WR Dorsett did have 2 open td passes that he dropped and he was also wearing gloves and full long sleeves while most Irish players were in short sleeves. ND went 88/10pl for a td then after each team drove for a short FG, the Irish made a 32 yd FG and missed a 34 yd FG and only led 13-3 at the half. ND went 81/6pl for a td, then 86/12 for a td as it got chillier as the night went on in the 2H. ND went 66/3pl for a td and after UM was SOD at the ND7, the Irish took over with 9:51 left and went on an 8:45 drive adding a 1 yd td run with 1:06 left for the dominating win. Read more…

Here are my projections for games being played on Saturday, October 6th.

I list the projected scores from my computers forecast. Another column shows you the computers yardage forecast for each game. I think it will be interesting to see who the computer picks to win the yardage battle and see if they win the game. In my College Football magazine I have the plus and minus ratings. I update them weekly and then factor in the home edge and I will show you who the Plus Minus ratings forecast. I will also list who Vegas has favored to win each week and we can see how they do picking the actual winners of games. There is also a WEEKLY POLL which you can enter for free each week.

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SECOND HIGHEST SCORING WEEKEND IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL HISTORY

This past weekend was the 2nd highest scoring weekend in college football history, with the teams combining to average 60.8 points. West Virginia and Baylor set a ton of records as WV had an 807-700 yd edge. Stedman Bailey would have set the Big 12 record with 303 yds receiving but he was actually topped by BU WR Terrance Williams who had 314. BU’s 9 game win streak came to an end as the teams combined for 1,507 yds offense and 6 rec’s had 100+ rec’s in WV’s first Big 12 game. The most previous points in a game involving a team in the AP poll was 124 set back in 1980 when Oklahoma beat Colorado 82-42. The 19 td’s combined just tied an NCAA mark which was set when Navy beat NT 74-62 in 2007. BU led 21-14 but trailed 70-56 when they got the last td with 3:08 left. WV got to the KO deep and WV got 2 FD and was able to run off the clock

Naturally a couple of SEC defenses like Tennessee and Georgia wouldn’t have had that type of game but they did. UGA had a 560-478 yd edge and Tenn a 26-20 FD edge. Tenn had a few missed opportunities as at the end of the 3Q they missed a 28 yd FG and with 5:55 left, UT at midfield was int’d at the UGA26. UT’s next poss got them to the UGA27 trailing by 7 pts but Bray was sk’d and fumbled with 1:22 left and UT’s final play was an int’d pass at the UGA48. UGA has topped over 40 pts in each of its first 5 games for the first time in school history

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Today’s blog will continue with my series of analyzing the most/least improved units over the last 20 years. Each day this week I will have a new offensive or defensive statistical category to examine and today I will breakdown defensive rush yards.

There are many factors that contribute to a significant change in rush defense. First, a team may see a significant improvement if they return a bunch of experienced starters especially on the front 7. Naturally a team that loses a bunch of starters especially their defensive line and linebackers could see a significant drop in rush defense. Read more…