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As you know I’ve always spent about 90% of my time on college football but I am very excited about our NFL Magazine. I have the same desire to mirror my success of being college footballs “most accurate” magazine by becoming the most accurate NFL Magazine as well. In this years magazine (which is now available) I project each of the division races with records. I want to share just how much work and research goes into making these forecasts.

I’ve posted several articles on my blog including: repeating as a division champ and slipping and sliding can help you analyze a teams fortunes. These are just part of the research I do annually to make my predictions. The schedule is of course an important part of analyzing the upcoming season.

Listed below are the rankings from the NFL for the 2010 season for the toughest schedule. They are based on the 2009 records of the opponents they will face this year. While this method is decent in determining how tough an opponent’s schedule is for the next season it does have a flaw as not all teams are the same strength they were last year. For example, I think Washington who struggled through a disappointing season will be one of the most improved teams in the NFL & is a surprise contender for the NFC East. They are only counted as being a 4-12 team in this method.

Toughest Schedules for 2010 (NFL Method)

Now I have compiled my list of toughest schedules based on my preseason Power Ratings of each team, and again this year I have added a portion of the formula to incorporate the NFL’s statistical model. I feel this method is much more accurate because injuries, offseason personnel & coaching changes are not factored into the NFL ratings while they are in my rankings. My list of who will face the toughest schedules for the 2010 season uses my FIVE sets of Power Ratings with the records for last year only counting for about 20% of the grade. Here is my list:

Toughest Schedules for 2010 (My Method)

Let’s take a look at some of the major discrepancies between the NFL’s toughest schedule and my rankings. Jacksonville is listed as playing the #5 toughest schedule while my rankings list them at #16. Some of the factors for the difference are that they play Philadelphia who went to the playoffs last year but I expect to have a losing season and they also play the weak AFC West, which I expect to have a down year.

I believe my way of rating the schedules has proved to be most accurate but that is not the only way we analyze schedules. At the end of the year I took my final power ratings for half the grade, and the final win-loss record for the year for the other half of the toughest schedule grade, and came up with my POST 2009 toughest schedules. Here is that list.

Post 2009 Toughest Schedules

According to the NFL’s way of figuring the toughest schedule New Orleans went into 2009 with the 8th most difficult schedule. Their opponents had a .557 win %. The Saints started the season 13-0, before losing their final 3 regular season games after locking up the #1 NFC seed vs the #21 schedule overall. On the opposite end the Ravens had the NFL’s #28 schedule but in reality had the #3 schedule. Last year the NFL method had Miami playing the TOUGHEST schedule & my rankings also had the Dolphins at #2 and they actually faced the #2 schedule.

This year I will look at teams whose schedule has changed by 18 or more spots in comparison to the post 2009 schedule. Here are teams that should IMPROVE their record due to facing a softer slate: New York Jets (18 spots easier) and Tampa Bay (18). Last year Cincinnati went from 4-11-1 to winning the AFC North after a 26 spot schedule switch.

Here are teams that face much tougher schedules this year and will probably see their records drop some. The Packers go from having the #31 schedule to now having the league’s #11 ranked schedule (20 spots). Others with much tougher slates are Washington (22), Philadelphia (18), Chicago (12), Detroit (12), Cincinnati (10) Houston (10) and Buffalo (10). Last year Tampa Bay, which was 9-7 in ’08, was inlcuded in this article and went 3-13.

In the last four years 34 teams have been included in my schedule analysis and of the 14 teams that had much easier schedules twelve have improved their record (85.7%) and 16 of 20 with much tougher scedules had weaker records with 3 teams having the same record as the year before (95%).

Can the strength of schedule make a difference? In 2002, Tampa Bay drew an easy schedule by playing in a soft division. That would brighten their playoff hopes and they won the Super Bowl. In 2005, Seattle had the #31 schedule helping them withstand injury losses to QB Hasselbeck and RB Alexander while the Bears used the #32 ranked schedule in 2006 to roll to the Super Bowl with a 13-3 regular season mark. In 2007 Cleveland faced the #31 schedule and had the improbable run from 4-12 to 10-6. In 2008 Miami used the #28 schedule to their advantage & won the AFC East in one of the best turnarounds in NFL history. Last year Cincinnati went from facing the #2 toughest schedule to #15 and improved from a half game ahead of the last place Browns to winning the AFC North Title.

Make sure to pick up Phil Steele’s NFL Preview on a newsstand near you for just $7.95. If you cannot find the magazine you can always order online at the PhilSteele.com Store. The cost is just $12.70 which inlcudes priority shipping.

Only 20 Days Until the First College Football Game!!

As you know I pride myself as having the most accurate preseason college football magazine and I’m pleased to announce that after the 2009 season my magazine stills ranks #1 in accuracy the last 5 years and still #1 over the past 11 years!!

Last year, I decided to expand my NFL magazine to 6 pages per team and put it on the newsstands for the first time. Unlike my college magazine I do not write every word for each team but I do write the forecasts for each division and I must say I am pleased with the results.

Overall out of the eight major publications, no one predicted more division winners than me as I correctly forecasted 7 of the 8 division winners with Pittsburgh being the only exception in the AFC North.

My division forecast that I am most proud of is the NFC South where coming into the season no one was a bigger Saints fan than me as I was the only magazine to have them winning the division! Some publications didn’t even have the Saints among the Top 20 teams in the NFL however my power poll had them at #6 which was significantly higher than any other magazine!

NFC South

Here are the other preseason predicted division winners by each publication.

AFC East

With Brady back at QB for the Patriots, the AFC East projections were a clean sweep with all of the publications picking New England to win the Division.

AFC North

As you can see the Steelers were probably the biggest disappointment of the ’09 season as every single publication predicted them to win the division. There may be no one in the country including Cincinnati fans that would have predicted the Bengals to win the division title after Pittsburgh and Baltimore faced each other in the AFC Championship in ’08.

AFC South

The Colts clearly were the favorites but unlike New England, Pittsburgh and San Diego, they weren’t the consensus pick with Lindy’s picking Tennessee. Also I want to mention that not only did I predict the exact order of finish in the division with the Colts #1, the Texans #2, the Titans #3 and the Jaguars #4, but I also predicted the exact record for 3 of the 4 teams!! (Houston 9-7, Tennessee 8-8 and Jacksonville 7-9)

AFC West

San Diego clearly was the favorite in the weakest division in the AFC. The Chargers lived up to their preseason hype by winning 11 straight games before falling to the NY Jets at home in the playoffs.

NFC East

In the NFC, I had the Eagles winning the East where they finished tied for 1st with Dallas and while I didn’t have the Cowboys winning the division, my power poll had them as the #7 team in the entire league! The NY Giants who were picked to win the division by 4 of the publications finished a disappointing 8-8.

NFC North

Only 3 of the publications had the Vikings winning the division however, I correctly predicted the Vikings would win and this was even before Favre had been signed with the team!

NFC West

Finally in the NFC West I had the Cardinals winning the division for the 2nd year in a row despite the Super Bowl loser curse where SEVEN of 8 teams that lost the SB the previous year did not even make the playoffs the next year!

Overall Standings

As you can see I was the only major publication to predict 7 division winners! USA Today came in 2nd with 6 with Athlon and the Sporting News each predicting 5 division winners correct.

When the NFL magazine hits the newsstands this July make sure to pick one up along with my college preview. I have 5 sets of power ratings for the NFL (9 for college) and I believe we have more information than any other NFL preview on the market and hopefully this year we can predict all 8 division winners correctly!

In last year’s ACC/Big East regional magazine, I included more than 100 pages of FCS coverage and I am currently working on how my conference predictions turned out. Look for those reuslts in an upcoming blog. I will be back on Monday. Have a great weekend!

Last night the New Orleans Saints won their 1st Super Bowl in franchise history defeating the Indianapolis Colts 31-17 in Super Bowl XLIV. The Saints became the 1st team since the 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win a Super Bowl in their 1st appearance and just the 5th team to win one in their 1st appearance against a franchise with multiple appearances (5-15). QB Drew Brees completed 32 of 39 passes (82.1) for 288 yards and 2 TDs to tie the Super Bowl record for completions and won the game’s MVP honors.

KEY PLAY OF THE GAME – Late in the 4Q with the Colts driving for the game tying TD, Manning fired a pass to WR Wayne on a routine slant pattern that the Colts run several times every game. However, Saints DB Tracy Porter stepped in front of Wayne, gathered the ball in and raced 74 yards for a TD giving the Saints an insurmountable 31-17 lead with just 3:12 left.

A COUPLE OF OTHER KEY PLAYS – With the Colts leading 10-3 in the 2Q and facing a 3rd down, Manning threw a great pass to WR Garcon that could have gone for 30+ yds into Saints territory but Garcon dropped it and Indianapolis had to punt. Counting halftime, Manning wouldn’t attempt another pass for more than 70 minutes!

Late in the 1H after stopping the Saints on 4th and goal from the 1, the Colts faced a 3rd and 1 at their own 10, but were stuffed at the LOS. After a punt the Saints took advantage of the great field position and K Hartley drilled a 44 yd FG as time ran out to make it 10-6 at the half. The FG made up for the Saints missed opportunity on the previous drive.

On the 2H opening KO, Saints HC Payton called for an onside kick and after a mad scramble for the ball the Saints recovered. Payton’s gamble paid off later in the drive when RB Thomas caught a 16-yd screen pass for a TD and the Saints had their 1st lead of the game 13-10 (11:41 3Q). It was the 1st onside kick in SB history that didn’t occur in the 4Q.

After the Saints scored a TD with 5:42 left to make it 22-17, the Saints went for 2. WR Lance Moore had the ball in his grasp over the goal line momentarily before it came loose. The play was called incomplete, but HC Payton challenged the call and replays showed the catch was good for a 2-pt conversion, and the Saints had a 7-pt lead.

SAINTS OUTGAINED 907-589 COMBINED IN LAST TWO GAMES OF YEAR BUT WIN BOTH! – In the NFC championship game 2 weeks ago New Orleans won 31-28 in OT despite being outgained 475-257 by Minnesota. The Vikings had 5 TOs to the Saints 1 and despite playing on the road in front of one of the loudest crowds ever, had a chance to win late in the 4Q but got penalized for too many men in the huddle. That penalty forced the Vikings into a passing situation on 3rd to get into FG range only to have Favre throw an INT on the next play. The Saints won the coin toss in OT and scored the game-winning FG. Some argue that if the game were played on a neutral field, the Vikings would have won and many still feel that they are the better team!

Last night the Colts had a 432-332 advantage but blew several scoring opportunities.  1st with the Colts leading 10-3 WR Garcon dropped a key 3rd down pass that could have gone for big yardage and set them up in at least FG range. In the 2H, after converting a 4th down, a Colts drive stalled and K Stover missed a 51-yd FG. Then with 1:00 remaining, Indianapolis drove down inside the Saints 5 but questionable clock management and play calling led to them failing on 4th down and the Saints just took a knee to end the game.

MANNING MAKES NFL HISTORY DESPITE THE LOSS- QB Manning hit 31 of 45 passes (68.9) for 333 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT.  Despite the loss, Manning did become the 3rd QB in postseason history to surpass 5,000 passing yards and now only trails Brett Favre (5,855) and Joe Montana (5,772). There was some talk before the game that with a win Manning would now be in the “Best QB Ever” discussion. However with the loss and the key play being his costly INT, that talk will have to wait for now.

SUPER BOWL MVPs NO PROBLEM FOR NEW ORLEANS -In beating Manning, the Saints became the first team to beat three consecutive Super Bowl MVPs. They beat Kurt Warner (Arizona) in the divisional round, Brett Favre (Minnesota) in the NFC Championship Game and Manning (Indianapolis) last night.

AINTS NO MORE! – New Orleans known for being one of the NFL’s worst franchises for many years won 3 postseason games this year after winning only 2 in the previous 42 years combined! They beat Arizona, Minnesota and Indianapolis all division winners for their first title, outscoring them 107-59.

REDSKINS HAVE COMPANY-There haven’t been many large come from behind wins in SB history. The largest deficit occurred back in Super Bowl 22 with the Washington Redskins overcoming a 10-0 deficit to defeat the Denver Broncos 42-10. Last night the Saints after falling behind 10-0 outscored the Colts 31-7 in the final 3 quarters in the 31-17 win.

HARTLEY THE HERO! -New Orleans K Garrett Hartley the hero of the NFC Championship game with his game winning 40-yd kick in OT became the 1st kicker in SB history to make 3 40+ yd FGs (46, 44 and 47).  Coming into the game Hartley only had 26 career attempts while Indianapolis K Matt Stover had 569!

There are many things that make the Super Bowl more than just a football game. From the funny commercials to the elaborate halftime show, everyone even non-football fans have interest in some way. The Super Bowl also gives you the chance to bet on several hundred different intangibles and situations that range anywhere from the coin toss to how many players will score for each team. Here are some of the crazy things that people can bet on during the Super Bowl and how they did.

6:00 ET • CBS

GAME OVERVIEW

The NFL has been transitioning to feature offenses since the success of the 1999 Rams and New Orleans will now be rewarded for it. The old phrase of “defense wins championships” isn’t as iron clad as it used to be despite the success of the Jets in 2009. There were an NFL record nine QB’s with 4,000+ yds passing this year with Manning being #2 and Brees #6. This is the biggest QB matchup since Elway faced Favre in Super Bowl 32. Manning’s Colts are led by Jim Caldwell who is the 6th rookie HC to reach the Super Bowl and the 1st since 2002. This is also the 1st time since 1993 that the #1 seeds in both conferences have reached the Super Bowl. Indianapolis won the Lombardi Trophy just 3 years ago in Miami vs Chicago who had beaten Drew Brees’ Saints in the NFC Championship. The Saints are enjoying their 1st Super Bowl in franchise history. They have become the embodiment of the city of New Orleans and the local areas that are still rebuilding from Hurricane Katrina. The story of Archie Manning who was THE star player as a QB for a string of bad Saints teams will also be put in the spotlight as well the impact of his 2 sons. This could be the final game for vaunted Colts coaches Tom Moore (OC) and Howard Mudd (OL coach) who almost retired before the draft but Peyton personally lobbied for their return. Bolstered by a slew of passing records and statistics, a Super Bowl win here would move Manning from the “best QB in the NFL right now” discussion to the “best QB ever.” Drew Brees deserves a huge amount of credit for being the cornerstone of turning around the Saints’ franchise. The impact of DC Gregg Williams on a Saints defense which plays better than its #25 ranking, due to 39 takeaways, should also be front and center. Indianapolis is viewed as the favorite due to their playoff experience and the fact they beat the #3 and #1 defenses back-to-back. New Orleans throttled an undermanned Arizona team and despite being outgained 475-257 advanced due to Minnesota turning the ball over 5 times on 13 drives.

PLAYOFF EXPERIENCE

The Colts are strong believers in continuity and character which has enabled them to reach the playoffs every year since 2002. Indy is 9-8 with Manning at the helm in the playoffs. The Colts have 25 players who played in Super Bowl 41 and are even staying in the same hotel so they will be very well prepared to deal with the media onslaught. With this Super Bowl being in Miami the Colts will be very familiar with the hotels, practice arrangements and media areas. Both teams have 7 Pro Bowlers and while none of the 14 players will play they all had to make the trip to Miami the week prior for the actual game and stayed in Miami. Indy has 7 offensive and 5 defensive starters who played in Super Bowl 41 with LT Charlie Johnson being the #3 OT in the game. Brees has played in 5 playoff games but has no SB experience. New Orleans has 6 offensive and 3 defensive starters who played vs the Bears in the 2006 NFC Championship. The Saints have 3 players with SB experience with FS Sharper (‘97 Green Bay), CB Gay (‘04 and ‘07 New England), FB Eckel (‘07 New England) and while Shockey was on the ‘07 New York Giant team he was hurt and didn’t play. This is one of the largest edges in playoff/SB experience in recent memory.

LARGE EDGE: COLTS

TURF/SITE

This is an NFL record 10th Super Bowl being hosted in South Florida and the 5th in this building (KR for TD in all 4). Sun Life Stadium is a 76,500 seat venue with a natural grass surface. Both teams are speed oriented and the defenses will be slowed down some the grass which will benefit the QB’s. The Saints played here Oct 25th and will be used to the sight lines but many of the Colts’ players were involved in the rainy night game of Super Bowl 41. The NFL spares no expense to ensure a quality playing surface however they could be hard pressed to provide one with the Pro Bowl being played 7 days prior. Normally the NFL imports a grass field called Princess 77 for the game costing over $500,000 to install and it gets a month to grow in before its played on. Unlike last year where a large amount of Pittsburgh fans made the trip neither franchise is known for its fans travelling. Both teams will be allotted 17.5% of the tickets. One third goes to season ticket holders in a lottery system, one third to suite owners and the rest to the players, coaches and staff. The team hosting the event gets 5% of the tickets, 30% is shared by the other 30 NFL teams with the league retaining 30% for sponsors and promotions. The avg ticket price for SB XLIV on the resale market was $2,799 prior to the Championship games.

EDGE: NONE

SAINTS #1 OFFENSE VS COLTS #18 DEFENSE

The Saints offense starts with Drew Brees who is a perfect match for Sean Payton’s offensive system. Brees is a rhythm QB who gets better with momentum making those first 15 scripted plays crucial. Minus the QB rush attempts New Orleans was a 55/45 pass vs run team in 2009. Payton is a very innovative play caller and the New Orleans system spreads the ball around to various players diffusing opposing defenses. The Saints have 7 players with 35 or more rec’s and 10 players with 1 TD catch. Brees favorite target is Colston and he has logged 1,000 yds receiving in 3 of the last 4 years. Henderson is the possession WR and 33 of his 54 rec’s have gone for first down. Despite Brees coming so close to Marino’s single season passing record in 2008 the offense didn’t really click until this year with a healthy Shockey to exploit the seams in the middle of defenses. Meachem finally came into his own this year as a big play WR (1 TD every 5 rec’s) who is able to stretch the field (16.0 ypc is 9th). The 2nd biggest improvement for the Saints this year was their run game which avg’d 100 ypg (4.0) last year improving to 132 ypg (4.5) this year (6th). All 3 RB’s were hit with injuries this year with Thomas missing 2.5 games due to bruised ribs. However the Saints emphasize a different RB week to week depending on the foe they are facing. Thomas is the all purpose RB, Bell the power back and Bush is a multi-role speed/agility back that can motion out of the backfield and play slot. Bush’s versatility is another key component to the offense but he is starting to slow down due to a chronic knee injury. The Saints returned 4 of 5 starters that developed together when the OL was rebuilt back in 2006. Brees has only been sacked more than twice in a game 2 times this year (Miami and Dallas) and including the 2 playoff games he’s averaged 1 sack every 27 attempts. RG Jahri Evans has evolved into arguably the best OG in the NFL despite coming from a Division II school. The Saints will have to contend with a very fast Colt defense that matches up fairly well in the passing game. The Colts #18 defense isn’t that bad considering that Antonio Johnson is a 5th round draft choice that was signed off Tennessee’s practice squad last year and Daniel Muir is 3rd year unrestricted free agent that was claimed last year off waivers. GM Pioli likes to state the Colts play the run (25th, 127 ypg, 4.3) on the way to the QB (15th, 34 sacks). Indy’s offensive success also helps dictate opposing teams tendencies as they play the pass more. This is the 1st playoff run since the Super Bowl win in 2006 that Indianapolis had Freeney and Mathis healthy together (22.5 sacks, 66% sacks). Indy’s LB’s don’t get a lot of credit as they are system LB’s that are very fast and are sure tacklers. Indianapolis is one of the NFL’s best at not giving up big plays in 2009 and while they give up yardage in a grinding style they also force teams into mistakes. Brackett is a solid if undersized MLB and Session is an underrated WLB is a poor man’s Derrick Brooks. While Indy is a better team when Bob Sanders plays, the Colts don’t miss him as Antoine Bethea had an All-Pro level season and Melvin Bullitt is solid run stuffer. Indianapolis is very specific in how it drafts CB’s requiring them to be solid tacklers who are very fast and they tend to get beaten up. Indianapolis has given up four 300 yard passing games this year vs Warner, Schaub and Brady with the 4th coming vs Sanchez in the playoffs when they were in a prevent defense. They’ve allowed 229 ypg passing (63%) with a 21-19 ratio with 3 TD’s coming vs Buffalo. They have only allowed 3 games of 3 passing TD’s but will be hard pressed to match that here. New Orleans’s balanced offense has the edge here despite Indy’s speed.

EDGE: SAINTS

COLTS #9 OFFENSE VS SAINTS #25 DEFENSE

Indianapolis is the only team since the 2002 realignment to with double digit wins and playoff appearances. Continuity is the core of the Colts offense as Manning has had the same OC and OL coach the entire time he’s been in the NFL. HC Jim Caldwell was his QB coach from 2002 until he took over as HC with Frank Reich replacing him. Manning has become the best statistical QB in the NFL and is keenly aware of his place in the NFL history books. He won his 4th MVP in 2009 with no less than 5 come-from-behind 4Q wins en route to a 14-0 start. What makes 2009 stand out is the fact that he no longer had Marvin Harrison and his replacement Anthony Gonzalez (knee) was lost after the season opener. Manning was able to force feed Pierre Garçon and Austin Collie into the Colts system and develop them. He was still able to get Reggie Wayne, who is arguably the 3rd best WR (behind Arizona’s Fitzgerald and Houston’s Johnson) and Dallas Clark, who is one of the top 5 receiving TE’s in the NFL, 100 rec’s each. Manning’s attention to detail in the passing game over the season helped push Garçon and Collie to a combined 18 rec’s (15.2) vs the Jets #1 D. Indianapolis has only averaged 80 yards per game (3.5) rushing the last 2 years despite adding Donald Brown in this year’s draft. While Indianapolis does struggle in short yardage situations the truth is they view RB’s as extra pass blockers and Addai is a good receiving RB (51 receptions, 6.6). Indianapolis does an excellent job of developing OL and getting them to overachieve. They are dedicated pass blockers who provide little push at the point of attack and while a lot of credit goes to Manning they have only given up 1 sack every 40 pass attempts this year. The Colts can be slowed down by bigger and physical defenses like Tennessee’s last year, Jacksonville in Week 1 or Baltimore in the Nov game. Aside from the NFC Championship game where they unloaded on Favre, New Orleans isn’t known for that. Gregg Williams runs an aggressive blitzing scheme that isn’t afraid to come from any angle. Will Smith is the top pass rusher on the team (13 sacks) but he’s not known for his run stopping ability like Charles Grant (torn triceps) was before landing on IR after the season finale. DT Ellis took a huge step in development and with him in the lineup the Saints only allowed 103 yards per game (4.2) vs 151 yards per game without him. One of the glaring weaknesses for New Orleans defense had been the lack of an impact MLB but Vilma has locked the spot down and is the one player that Williams trusts with changing defensive playcalls on the field. Prior to 2009 the Saints gave up a whopping 79-39 ratio over 3 years. While DC Williams rightfully gets most of the credit the truth is New Orleans revamped the secondary signing Sharper (9 int), Greer, getting Tracy Porter back from a broken wrist and drafting Jenkins, who would be the nickel CB. The Saints’ secondary was very beat up this year and at one point was without 4 of its top 6 CB’s but still finished 3rd with 26 regular season int (Green Bay 30, Buffalo 28). New Orleans allowed five 300 yard passing games this year but only 1 game with 3 TD passes (Washington). New Orleans does have a very dangerous secondary but they don’t have the physicality overall to slow down Manning who will have extra time to break down the defense.

EDGE: COLTS

SPECIAL TEAMS

It’s not much of a surprise that both teams are at the bottom of my special teams rankings as the Colts (#31) simply don’t spend money in this area. They replaced their special teams coach and punter in the offseason but recorded a 37.8 net average (20th). The Saints’ (#30) P Morstead tied for 32nd in net average (36.0) but part of the problem for both punters is that their offenses stall in favorable field position and they aren’t allowed to unload like Lechler does with Oakland. Both teams have poor PR numbers with Indianapolis averaging 5.2 (28th) and New Orleans averaging 4.6 (31st). Bush, however, remains a weapon and had an 83 yd PR TD vs Arizona. Kickers have struggled with FG’s in the 2009 playoffs (20 of 33) and Indy has a huge edge with Stover (569 attempts) over Hartley (26 attempts) despite his game winning 40 yard FG vs Minnesota. New Orleans has the edge on KR’s (4th) thanks to Courtney Roby whose 27.5 average tied for 11th. Both teams have poor KR defenses with New Orleans being 29th (24.5) and the Colts finishing 31st (25.3). Struggling teams generally place more emphasis on their special teams while good teams have cap issues that prevent their starters from playing there. Neither team qualifies for an edge here based on their body of work.

EDGE: NONE

COACHING

For the third time in four years a member of the Tony Dungy coaching tree will appear in the Super Bowl. Jim Caldwell was an assistant coach with Indianapolis in Super Bowl 41 which made the transition from Dungy’s retirement very smooth. Thanks to Manning, he was able to bring back OC Tom Moore and OL coach Howard Mudd for another year keeping that side of the ball together. He did bring in a new DC in Larry Coyer who set up a system for bigger DT’s but kept the overall team speed intact. He also hired a new special teams coach in Ray Rychleski and while those results haven’t moved Indy up in the rankings, they didn’t cost them any games like last year’s Wildcard loss to San Diego. Sean Payton is a former AFL QB who came into the league as a QB coach for Jim Fassel and Ray Rhodes. His career blossomed under Bill Parcells as he helped developed Romo into a starting QB. Payton is widely regarded as the best offensive oriented HC currently in the NFL. Payton made the highly publicized and successful move (chipping in $250K of his own salary) to hire Gregg Williams as his DC. New Orleans’ defense was 11th after the first 7 games but injuries and their offensive play style saw them decline as the season went along. Both teams have solid offensive coaches and really the defenses are in the first year of new DC so there are no edges.

EDGE: NONE

PAST HISTORY MATCHUP & INTANGIBLES

The last meeting between these teams was the 2007 NFL season opener where Indianapolis shredded New Orleans 41-10 at home. Indianapolis had a massive emotional edge in their first game since their Super Bowl win and New Orleans was pressing too hard to be perfect after the NFC Championship loss. New Orleans DC Williams is very familiar with Manning having been the Tennessee DC from ‘97-’00, Buffalo’s HC from ‘01-’03, the Washington DC in ‘07 and the Jacksonville DC in ‘08. He is 2-5 vs Manning with his defenses allowing 285 yards per game (65%) with a 13-4 ratio with 7 sacks. Both teams carry themselves very well in the media and the “bulletin board” material has been entertaining but not game changing. New Orleans does have the emotional boost of their first SB in franchise history and will be playing for themselves and the city. While the media will try to play up Archie Manning’s involvement with both franchises here it won’t carry weight on the field.

EDGE: NONE

FORECAST: Indianapolis 34 New Orleans 33

AFC Championship • 3:00 ET • CBS

NY Jets vs Indianapolis

The AFC comes full circle here. Having already dispatched Cincinnati in the Wildcard Round the Jets have the opportunity to take out the other team that essentially gifted them a playoff spot. Indianapolis had a 15-10 lead after the 1st drive of the 2H in the 1st meeting when they pulled Manning & the rest of the starters. At that point Indy had 16-7 FD & 254-115 yd edges & the Jets TD came when Brad Smith returned the 2H’s opening KO 106 yards for a TD. However the combo of Jones & Greene had 68 yds (4.5) rushing in the 1H. The Jets #1D sacked Indy QB Painter on his 2nd series forcing a fumble which they returned to take the lead & the run defense took over. Last week was a story of 2 halves for the Jets as while they were outgained 212-99 in the 1H they allowed just 1 TD as San Diego missed 2 FG’s. In the 2H the Jets had a 163-132 yd edge & held San Diego to just 9 yds on their 1st 4 drives of the 2H. Indianapolis quieted doubters about how ready they would be after shutting it down for the final 2 games. The Colts #18 defense used their impressive team speed to hold Rice to just 67 yds (5.2). Manning is 4-1 vs a Rex Ryan defense avg 227 ypg (62%) with a 9-2 ratio.

Rex Ryan took the same formula that got the ‘08 Ravens into the playoffs with a rookie head coach & QB by relying on their #1 rush attack & #1 D. Sanchez is the 1st rookie QB to start & win the first 3 games of a year (202 ypg, 59%, 4-2) since 1969. He then averaged 169 ypg (49%) with a 6-14 ratio in his next 7 starts (1-6) until Ryan got involved with the “color code system.” Since then he’s avg 131 ypg (59%) with a 2-4 ratio except for the Tampa Bay game (knee sprain) but last week joined Baltimore’s Flacco as the only rookie QB’s to win 2 Playoff games. The Jets boldly traded for Edwards & he still has a tendency to drop balls (49% catch rate with Jets). Cotchery is back to being a solid #2 & TE Keller rounds out a decent receiving unit. The backbone of the #20 offense is RB’s Greene & Jones who along with San Diego’s Tomlinson & St Louis’s Jackson are the only active RB’s with 5 straight 1,000 yd seasons. Jones finished 3rd in rushing this year thanks to a formidable OL that has started all 16 together. Greene has been the star of the playoffs leading the league with 263 (6.0). Over the last 6 regular season games the D held opposing QB’s to a comb 33.7 passer rating with 1,054 ypg (43%) & a 1-10 ratio. The Jets are the 1st team to lead the NFL in scoring D, total D & rush offense since the 1986 Bears. The best NFL CB in ‘09 has been Revis who leads the NFL with 37 pd & hasn’t allowed an opposing WR to have more than 50 yds this year. The ILB’s are Scott & Harris who didn’t miss a beat with the loss of NT Jenkins in run support. While the Jets are just 18th in sacks it’s misleading as they own an 8-17 ratio. Shaun Ellis is a rare active pass rushing DE in a 3-4 (hybrid) & has 6.5 sacks. Pouha has done a good job taking over at NT since the loss of Jenkins & NYJ have allowed 93 ypg rush (3.6) since 10/18 (Buffalo). The Jets special teams are an average group (#14) which isn’t bad as they’ve cycled 7 punters thru since the draft & aren’t the same with the loss of Washington.

Despite the outcry over the loss of “a perfect season” the fact is that the Colts have 7 straight seasons of 12 or more wins which is a record. Manning has won his 4th MVP which he earned with 5 straight come-from-behind wins this year & the Colts are the only team in the NFL with double digit wins & playoff berths since realignment. What makes this season standout is the changeover at WR with 2nd year WR Garcon & rookie Collie taking over for departed Marvin Harrison & Anthony Gonzalez who sprained his knee in Week 1. Despite their inexperience Indianapolis finished in the Top 10 (9th) in total offense for the 10th time in 11 years. The Colts have 5 players in the top 100 for receptions this year with Wayne & Clark tying for 5th with 100 receptions. Clark is the 2nd TE in NFL history with 100 receptions & the Colts offset their #32 run game with Addai in the short pass game (51 rec, 6.6). They have struggled in the short yardage area which is where Brown was supposed to help out but he’s been bothered by a shoulder injury. Indy’s 13 sacks allowed is the 4th time in 5 years the Colts OL has given up 15 or fewer sacks. They didn’t have a 100 yd rusher in any game this year & only broke that number as a team 3 times this year. Despite finishing 25th vs the run (4.3) the D under DC Coyer is improved allowing 112 ypg (4.1) prior to the Jets/Bills. Indy also places much more emphasis on speed & sure tackling than other teams. They allowed an NFL best 27 pass plays of 20 or more yds & gave up a 19-16 ratio (3 TD’s vs BUF) which is a big dropoff from last year’s 6-15 ratio. FS Bethea is the only player in the secondary to start all 16 this year & had an All-Pro season. Brackett remains a steady force in the middle but the team doesn’t place much priority on LB’s. Mathis & Freeney combined for 23 sacks despite basically resting for 3 games at the end of the year. Once again Indianapolis struggled on special teams finishing 31st in our rankings due to some very poor return units (22.2 KR, 5.2 PR).

This is the 1st time an NFL championship game will  feature a pair of rookie head coaches. However I really don’t consider Caldwell a rookie. He is a long time veteran of the Colts & while he made some coaching changes when he took over (DC & special teams) he was groomed for the job by Dungy & inherited a talented roster. Ryan has plenty of experience running the Ravens defense & was with them when they won their Super Bowl. I expect this game to get off to a slow start as the Colts use the 1st Quarter to figure out the Jets defense & the Jets try to establish the run. While the Jets did keep the 1st game close there are some key differences here. The Colts didn’t play Pierre Garcon (hand) & LT Charlie Johnson, CB Jerraud Powers, LB Clint Session, DE Robert Mathis didn’t even suit up. They pulled Dwight Freeney early in the 1st Qtr & in a must win game the Jets only had 7 FD & 115 yds in the 1st half for 3 points. San Diego clearly underestimated the Jets played to their defense & run game without making mistakes. It wouldn’t be a shock to see the Jets win this game but the Colts will have their full roster available, are used to these big games & their smaller & faster defense will key in on the run & force the Jets to make plays in the air. The Jets have done an excellent job of developing Sanchez but Manning is the elite QB at home that has seen versions of this defense twice this year.

PHIL’S FORECAST: INDIANAPOLIS 23 NY Jets 10

NFC Championship•  6:30 ET •FOX

Minnesota vs New Orleans

PHIL’S FORECAST: Minnesota 31 NEW ORLEANS 30

Tomorrow’s Blog will have the forecasts for the remaining two NFL Divisional games. Coming up on Monday I will have the teams hit hardest by players leaving early and also the teams that have the best returners that turned down the NFL.

Arizona vs New Orleans

NFC Divsional • Saturday 4:30 ET •FOX

The Cardinals earned their first Back 2 Back division titles since ’74-’75 and are the 3rd Super Bowl loser to return to the playoffs in the last 10 years. Arizona’s 1st 10 win season since ‘76 went thru the arm of Warner who is the 2nd QB in NFL history to pass for 100 TD’s with 2 different teams (Tarkenton). Warner’s #’s are down vs last year (286 ypg, 67%, 30-14) as defenses refused to let the duo of Fitzgerald (four 1000 yard seasons in 1st 6 years) and Boldin (five 1000 yard seasons) make big plays and kept them in front of the defense. The Cardinals improving run game also had Whisenhunt dial back the pass attempts (40 in 1st 9, 33 in next 6). In the 1st 7 games Arizona averaged 65 ypg (3.3) on the ground but as RB Wells adjusted to the NFL, Arizona averaged 123 ypg (4.7) over the next 8 prior to resting for the finale. The Cardinals OL has been outstanding this year allowing 26 sacks (1 every 23 pass attempts) and had 27 straight games with the same 5 starters prior to LT Gandy (sports hernia) landing on IR. Arizona released its DC after the Super Bowl loss and the #20 defense is clone of the Steelers but with less freelancing in the secondary. They remain a high risk/high reward defense as while they are 5th in sacks by (1 every 14 pass attempts) they are 23rd in pass D with a respectable 22-21 ratio. CB Rodgers-Cromartie’s 6 interceptions are the most for an Arizona player since 2003 and Adrian Wilson is just the 10 player in NFL history with 20 sacks and 20 interceptions in a career. The Cardinals 3-4 differs from Pittsburgh’s as the DL provides pressure and 9 players have at least 2 sacks which diffuses the offenses ability to focus on just 1 key pass rusher (ie: Dallas’s Ware). Dockett is a highly active player who can play inside or outside in 4-3/3-4 snaps and leads the team in sacks and is the leader of the front 7. Whisenhunt has taken great pains to upgrade his special teams and they are a solid 3rd in our rankings thanks to their outstanding KR defense (20.5) and Ben Graham’s 40.6 net punting (7th).

While leading the #1 offense this year Brees finished 1st in comp % (70.6), quarterback rating (109.6), TD passes (34) and tied Rodgers and Romo for 2nd with 39 pass plays of 25 or more yards. Brees also spreads the ball around (7 players with 35 or more receptions this year) which diffuses the defense’s ability to lock onto a single player. Colston is the only player who’s had 1,000 yards receiving with Brees at the helm but he’s done it 3 of the last four years. Henderson is the possession WR but the offense really started clicking with a healthy Shockey who opened up the middle of the field. Meachem was GM Loomis’ preseason breakout player & he didn’t disappoint as his 16.0 ypc was 9th in the NFL. The Saints best previous finish in rushing was 11th in 2003 and this year they came in 6th. The combo of Thomas, Bell and Bush worked despite injuries as Payton rolls with whichever RB he feels will exploit the opposing team. Combined the trio would be 2nd only to Chris Johnson in rushing this year. The Saints OL is a bit overrated with Brees being sacked 20 times (4th, 1 every 27.2 pass attempts) due to his lightning quick release. Miami and Dallas were the only teams with deep and physical secondaries who were able to jam New Orleans receivers and throw off the timing enough for the edge rushers to get to Brees (9 sacks). DC Gregg Williams led the Saints to the #9 defense after the 1st 5 weeks but injury’s caught up to them and they finished the year 25th allowing 384 ypg and 23 ppg over the final 11 weeks. The Saints have played much of the season without its starting CB’s Greer and Porter with Jenkins having growing pains as a nickel CB. Sharper tied for the NFL lead with 9 interceptions and MLB Vilma proved that he is a cornerstone player here. New Orleans did lose DE Grant (triceps) vs Carolina but will have DT Ellis here and with him in the lineup New Orleans only allowed 103 ypg (4.2) rushing. The Saints have our #30 specials teams due to 4.6 PR avg (31st) and the KR coverage unit giving up 24.5 (29th).

The Cardinals are off one of the best offensive playoff games in history setting the NFL mark for points in a postseason game. Teams that scored 50 or more are just 1-5 since 1967 in their next playoff game. Warner reinforced his bid for the Hall of Fame with 379 yards (88%) & 5 TD’s & he is on pace for 4000 yards in postseason games here. The Cardinals took advantage of the fact that the Packers showed all their cards the week before in a meaningless game. Now the Cardinals face a QB that is just as cerebral & instinctive as Warner. Arizona likely won’t have Boldin (high ankle sprain) here but they are 6-1 without him. Brees is also more experienced than Rodgers & isn’t as likely to make the same mistakes that he did. Yes the Saints lost some shine due to their 3 game losing streak but they have 15 players on the team from the 2006 playoff squad. They are also the healthiest they’ve been since training camp opened but I am wondering why they resigned Deuce McAllister here. The loss of DE Charles Grant is big but virtually every other injured defensive player will be healthy & available here. The key here will be if DT Sedrick Ellis can get enough push in the middle to move Warner off his launch point & knock him out of rhythm. Both teams have plenty of weapons here & neither team has a dominant defense to slow things down. I expect a very entertaining & high scoring game here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ORLEANS 35 Arizona 24

Baltimore vs Indianapolis

AFC Divisional •  Saturday 8:15 ET •CBS

The Ravens #13 offense underwent a surprising change for ’09 after leading the NFL in rush attempts (592) last year they dropped to 7th this year (468). Cam Cameron put the onus on Flacco in his 2nd year to speed up his development. Flacco finished in the top half of the NFL in comp %, yards, yards per attempt, TD’s and interceptions which is promising for 2010 as the 3rd year is when QB’s make their biggest jump. Baltimore has a mediocre at best receiving unit and while Mason continues to impress with his toughness the Ravens lack deep speed and depth. The leading receiver is Rice who leads the NFL in receptions by a RB (13th overall) and TE Heap who has climbed out of Harbaugh’s doghouse with a good season. Rice finished 6th in rushing this year and was the 1st RB in 33 games with 100 yards vs Pittsburgh. In December Baltimore averaged 212 ypg (5.9) rush going back to power football. Baltimore has fielded 5 different OL combos this year with Michael Oher (legit ROY candidate) doing a great job flipping back and forth between RT and LT. The Ravens #3 defense is a bit misleading as they allowed 335 ypg vs playoff teams. Baltimore’s #5 rush defense held up well despite DE Ngata (ankle) missing 2 games. The secondary is very thin especially at CB. SS Reed missed the last 5 regular season games with hip and ankle injuries and his impact was key vs New England. The Ravens were 11th last year in sacks (1 every 15.5 pass attempts) but this year they fell to 18th (1 every 16.7 pass attempts) as LB Suggs missed 3 with an ankle injury and hasn’t fully recovered yet. Baltimore finished 8th in our special teams due to their KR units allowing 20.5 but the loss of Webb (ACL) who had a 26.2 avg is a big blow.

Despite the outcry over the loss of “a perfect season” the fact is that the Colts have 7 straight seasons of 12 or more wins which is a record. Manning has won his 4th MVP which he earned with 5 straight come-from-behind wins this year and the Colts are the only team in the NFL with double digit wins and playoff berths since realignment. What makes this season standout is the changeover at WR with 2nd year WR Garcon and rookie Collie taking over for departed Marvin Harrison and Anthony Gonzalez who sprained his knee in week 1. Despite their inexperience Indianapolis finished in the Top 10 (9th) in total offense for the 10th time in 11 years. The Colts have 5 players in the top 100 for receptions this year with Wayne and Clark tying for 5th with 100 receptions. Clark is the 2nd TE in NFL history with 100 receptions and the Colts offset their #32 run game with Addai in the short pass game (51 receptions, 6.6). They have struggled in the short yardage area which is where Brown was supposed to help out but he’s been bothered by a shoulder injury. Indianapolis’s 13 sacks allowed is the 4th time in 5 years the Colts OL has given up 15 or fewer sacks. They didn’t have a 100 yard rusher in any game this year and only broke that number as a team 3 times this year. Despite finishing 25th vs the run (4.3) the defense under DC Coyer is improved allowing 112 ypg (4.1) prior to the Jets/Bills. Indianapolis also places much more emphasis on speed and sure tackling than other teams. They allowed an NFL best 27 pass plays of 20 or more yards and gave up a 19-16 ratio (3 TD’s vs Buffalo) which is a big dropoff from last year’s 6-15 ratio. FS Bethea is the only player in the secondary to start all 16 this year and had an All-Pro season. Brackett remains a steady force in the middle but the team doesn’t place much priority on LB’s. Mathis and Freeney combined for 23 sacks despite basically resting for 3 games at the end of the year. Once again Indianapolis struggled on special teams finishing 31st in our rankings due to some very poor return units (22.2 KR, 5.2 PR).

The Ravens flat out clubbed the Patriots last week & I was just as surprised as everyone else. It wasn’t as close as the final score indicated & NT Wilfork reinforced it when he said the team simply didn’t have the same intensity as Baltimore. There is a lot of similarity here between the Ravens & the Giants of 2007. The Giants gained a lot of confidence when they lost to New England in the final season finale & used that vs them in the Super Bowl. The Ravens were a missed 30 yard FG away from beating Indianapolis this year where Flacco led them down the field on the next drive but was intercepted. The combo of Reed & Lewis gives the Ravens defense an edge as the defense won’t be fooled by Manning’s pre-snap motions. The pressure is all on Indianapolis here as they have to prove that resting for the final 2 games of the year wasn’t a mistake. Indianapolis is built for speed & playing at home enhances that. Despite last weeks success the Ravens are still pretty 1 dimensional on offense & while Rice will get his yards he’ll also be force fed the ball. Indianapolis is 25th in rush defense this year but their speed will keep them from giving up the big play & keep the clock moving. It takes a Quarter for a passing offense to get up to speed after a bye week & Indianapolis’s youth at WR helps out Baltimore’s below avg CB’s. In the last five games, the Ravens’ defense has given up just 60 points (12 ppg) and 5 touchdowns, while earning 13 sacks & 11 intereceptions. This is a dangerous game for the Colts vs a savvy Ravens team that has 6 road wins since 2000 in the playoffs. I think this will be a fairly close but surprisingly low scoring game here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: INDIANAPOLIS 24 Baltimore 17

Each day during bowl season in my daily blog, I will give you my forecasts on the bowl games taking place that day. My forecasts will include a detailed write-up with my computer’s projected box score including rushing and passing yards, points and turnovers along with a detailed write-up on each game.

Make sure you check out the Bowl Matchup section at PhilSteele.com where you’ll find all the latest and greatest information on the remaining bowl games. At the bottom of each individual bowl matchup page, there is a checklist that breakdowns on who has the advantage position by position, coaching, intangibles, and crowd advantage. You’ll also find game-by-game stats for each team, recaps of the 2009 season with box scores and each team’s stats.

Tomorrow’s blog will discuss the first three bowls games of the season and include the contest leaders. I will also include the leaders of the four radio station subcategories. We did promise that the contest leaders would be posted after each day but we are a little overwhelmed right now with more than 1,000 entries!

Remember, too, there’s still time for you to get your entries in! With 2 Bowls gone we have assigned the lowest points available (#1 and #2) to the New Mexico and St Petersburg Bowls — but you still have a chance at that cash! Get your Bowl Confidence Contest entry in TODAY as this could be the last day it is available! Rank the remaining bowls from #34 to #3 and see where you stack up against the Top 50 daily (starting Monday) at PhilSteele.com!

NEW ORLEANS BOWL

Middle Tennessee vs Southern Miss

The Golden Eagles were in this same bowl last year where they beat Troy 30-27 in OT. QB Martevious Young has gotten better each week after getting forced into action when starter Austin Davis went down and has a 13-1 ratio. In the New Orleans Bowl Matchup page at the bottom there is a checklist that weighs 13 different variables and Southern Miss is 11 points better. This will be the final game for Southern Miss RB Damion Fletcher and the Eagles will want to send him out on a winning note.

PHIL’S FORECAST: SOUTHERN MISS 35 MIDDLE TENNESSEE 24