Kansas City at Denver
Denver started the season 6-0 but is just 2-7 since winning the yardage battle in just 3 games and outscored 24-19. Defenses know that Orton struggles with the deep ball which allows them to keep LB’s close to the line and slow down the run game. KC is one of the worst teams statistically this year and since October they have not been ranked higher than 27th on offense and 29th on defense though the fact they enter the game +1 TO’s, I admit, is surprising. Denver has a traditionally had a nasty tendency to play down to the level of their foes (Oakland 2 weeks ago) and Cassel now has an idea of what McDaniels will throw at him. I do think Denver will get the win here but the Chiefs will make this tougher than expected as the players know that a slew of changes are coming and they need to impress for 2010.
FORECAST: DENVER 26 Kansas City 23
A quick note – While originally I said that I would post the bowl forecasts the day before the game, we have been SWAMPED with Bowl Confidence Contest entries (are you entered yet? CLICK HERE for details and make sure you enter to win the cash prizes). Look for my forecast for the New Orleans Bowl to go up Sunday morning and also check out Monday’s blog when the Bowl Confidence Contest leader board will be updated!
Here are my selections for this week’s NFL action:
DENVER at KANSAS CITY
|
Rush |
Pass |
Pts |
TO |
ST’s |
| DENVER |
129 |
235 |
21 |
2 |
#19 |
| KANSAS CITY |
118 |
185 |
18 |
1 |
#8 |
History sides with the Chiefs here as they are 17-1 vs Denver in the month of December. Reality sides with Denver who have the #18 and #5 units (+2 TO’s) vs KC’s #30 and #30 units (+1). Denver comes in with extra rest after their big win vs a weary and rushing challenged Giants team. In their 4 game losing streak they gave up 169 ypg (4.6) but held the Giants to 57 yds (3.6). Kansas City is pretty beat up at RB right now as they only have 1 healthy RB (Jamaal Charles 406 yds, 5.2) and their WR’s are some of the slowest in the NFL. Denver has a very savvy secondary and Denver has the advantage in the trenches (#7 sacks allowed, #4 sacks by vs Kansas City #31 and #30). Division games are dangerous late in the season as bad teams like Kansas City are rapidly growing into their programs but Denver has what it takes to get a win and stay in the playoff hunt.
Chicago at Minnesota
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST’s |
| CHICAGO |
50 |
205 |
16 |
2 |
#14 |
| MINNESOTA |
140 |
288 |
32 |
2 |
#5 |
With a win here the Vikings will have all but wrapped up the NFC North and this game will mean a little something to Favre who is 2-6 vs Chicago since Lovie Smith took over. Minnesota will be very rested as this is their 3rd straight home game since their bye week while Chicago is off last week’s Sunday Night game loss to Philadelphia and has to travel with a holiday week. I really like the matchup of the Minnesota #1 sack defense (36) vs Chicago’s older OL and while it only has allowed 20 sacks so far (#12) they play a big part in Cutler’s 18 interceptions. Cutler’s body language in games tells me that he can frustrates easily and doesn’t fully trust his teammates yet. Favre is having a career season (248 yards per game, 70%, 21-3 ratio), Minnesota has outgained foes 416-280 and have a reason to keep playing hard as they chase the Saints.
FORECAST: Minnesota 31 Chicago 13
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SEATTLE at MINNESOTA
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
Overs |
Teams |
| SEATTLE |
84 |
233 |
20 |
1 |
#23 |
| MINNESOTA |
127 |
280 |
32 |
1 |
#5 |
This is a tough spot for SEA who are in their 3rd road game in 4 weeks & have another road game vs STL on deck. They are rather unbalanced offensively (#27 run, #13 pass) & will be without #1 RB Jones (bruised lung) here. While MIN had a 492-297 yd edge vs DET last week they were sloppy to start the game & I noticed they put some unusual plays on tape in the game to force other teams to prep for them burn practice time. Favre lost in SEA 13-3 last year with the Jets in the snow but he’s got a better team with him now, a healthy arm & in ideal conditions. MIN is chasing NO for the #1 seed in the NFC & I side with a physical power team vs a speed oriented NFC West team on the road.
Jacksonville at NY Jets
|
Rush |
Pass |
Pts |
TO |
ST |
| JACKSONVILLE |
112 |
126 |
15 |
2 |
#18 |
| NY JETS |
200 |
218 |
31 |
1 |
#27 |
Last week the Jags switched back to a 4-3 defense versus Kansas City after trying to brute force install a 3-4 on the defense. They blew a 24-6 lead versus Kansas City and now face a rested Jets team that will run blitz all day on Jones-Drew. The Jets will have a fully healthy WR unit to go against a Jags team allowing a 15-5 touchdown/interception ratio with just 8 sacks on the year with 3 coming versus Kansas City. Sanchez will have time to throw and I like how Rex Ryan has adjusted things to help his QB improve. The Jags have lost their non-division games by 12 points per game, are -7 turnovers in those and Garrard only has a 5.72 ypa in those. I think the Jets will make this a very tough day for the visiting team here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NY JETS 23 Jacksonville 10
Miami at New England
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
Teams |
| MIAMI |
119 |
145 |
20 |
2 |
#2 |
| NEW ENGLAND |
108 |
318 |
34 |
1 |
#25 |
Brady is 25-3 combined vs the Jets & Bills but only 9-5 vs the Dolphins with only the Broncos giving him that many losses in his career. This is a very poor situation for the Dolphins who are off a wildly misleading final vs the Jets winning 30-25 despite just 104 yards thanks to a pair of 100+ yard KR’s for TD’s & a 52 yard fumble return. They now have to travel for the 2nd straight week vs a New England team that has had extra time to break down the CB blitzes that have shut down the Wildcat the last 2 weeks. Sparano hinted he’ll throw more to counter that technique but I really like NE’s CB’s vs an average at best WR unit. This is Henne’s 1st trip as a starter to the Razor & keep in mind Brady wasn’t the QB when the Dolphins unveiled the Wildcat last year in a 38-13 win. I think this gets out of hand fast as the Patriots won’t hold back.
Seattle at Dallas
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
Teams |
| SEATTLE |
86 |
198 |
19 |
2 |
#23 |
| DALLAS |
131 |
268 |
25 |
1 |
#5 |
Last year Dallas destroyed Seattle 34-9 with a 447-322 yd edge & tallied 7 sacks. The Cowboys are off a win vs a quality foe in the Falcons last week & now get an inconsistent SEA team. Both of Seattle’s wins have been shutouts (St Louis & Jacksonville) but 3 of their 4 losses have been by 13 or more points. In Seattle’s defense they have had no offensive line stability (12 different combos in 22 games) & injuries have hurt them on defense. Dallas’ main advantage here their huge offensive line vs a smaller, faster front 7 that is without their best player on defense in MLB Tatupa. This is a game the Cowboys should & must win as they have Philadelphia & Green Bay on the road next to show they can be a consistent force in the NFC.
FORECAST: DALLAS 34 Seattle 17
Good News! Check out the NFL team pages. Do you see the average grade listed weekly? That will be up here for all 120 college teams on a daily basis so you will not have to wait until Saturday for them!!!
We will have the college converted to that format by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.
Now here are my selections for Week 6!
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Some News & Notes for Week 5:
I must admit I am pretty pleased with the forecasts from my NFL magazine this year. I will begin charting the accuracy of each of the magazines in the NFL with the same formula that Stassen.com uses for the colleges but here is a quick recap after one fourth of the season.
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