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Super Bowl XLVI Forecast

Phil Steele — Sun, 05 Feb 2012 19:44:09 +0000

	SUPER BOWL XLVI SUNDAY FEBRUARY 5TH 6:30 PM NBC

NY GIANTS (12-7) VS NEW ENGLAND (15-3)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
NY GIANTS	108	328	26	1.6	#25	98.8
NEW ENGLAND	111	258	28	1.7	#5	99.7
GAME OVERVIEW The more things change the more they stay the same for Super Bowl XLVI. Both teams return to the Super Bowl for the 1st time since 2007 looking to cement their status in NFL history. Tom Brady has been the starting QB for NE for 10 years and this will be his 5th Super Bowl. He’s tied Joe Montana’s 16 game postseason victory mark and with a win he’d be tied with Terry Bradshaw and Montana with 4 SB victories. Oddly enough Brady has flown under the radar in 2011 due to the success of other QB’s. He also broke Dan Marino’s yardage barrier this season and his 39 passing TD’s was the 2nd best of his career. This game would redeem Brady’s loss in SB XLII and firmly put him ahead of Peyton Manning in the best of this era conversation in Manning’s own house. Winning SB XLII took Eli Manning out of his brother’s shadow but with a win he’d be ahead of his ailing brother in Championships while giving himself and Tom Coughlin a legit shot at the Hall of Fame. Eli is the 1st NFL QB in history with five road playoff victories. He also has more playoff wins in Giants history than Phil Simms (6). This isn’t much of a surprise as under Coughlin the Giants are 43-27 on the road vs 38-30 at home inc playoffs. The Giants survived a 4 game consecutive losing streak and after missing the playoffs LY despite 10 wins there was serious concerns about Coughlin’s future. Much like 2007, the Giants 38-35 loss to an offensive juggernaut gave them a big confidence boost to fuel their playoff drive. They got healthier as the season went along and played their best ball of the season in the 4 games prior to SF. The Giants can be the 1st 9-7 team to win a Super Bowl. Without a doubt SB XLVI looks to be a great way to cap off what had been a very tenuous 2011 for players and owners over the CBA negotiations. PLAYOFF EXPERIENCE The dominant image of SB XLII is David Tyree making the leaping catch to end the Patriots run at perfection. Playoff experience is fairly equal here. The Giants returned to the playoffs in 2008 losing in the divisional Round to PHI and sat out in 2009 (8-8) and 2010 despite a 10 win season. NE missed 2008 due to Brady’s knee injury but still logged a 11 win season. They then lost B2B home playoff games to BAL/NYJ before getting right in 2011. The Giants have 15 players who played in SB XLII still on the roster (Kiwanuka was IR bkn leg) with 6 offensive starters and 3 defensive starters. The Patriots have 7 players remaining from that game with 4 being offensive starters. Vince Wilfork is the only defensive starter from that game. Kevin Faulk was a big part of SB XLII but has been phased out of the 2011 offense at this point. While the Patriots have more overall playoff experience due to the L2Y (and Brady) this is mitigated by the Giants edge in players with actual Super Bowl experience here so this is essentially even. EDGE: NONE TURF/SITE Indianapolis was awarded SB XLVI in return for the city building the Colts a new venue and as a reward for being the “home field” for the NFL Scouting Combine which takes place 17 days later TY. Unlike DAL LY, Indianapolis is well suited to bad weather and has a series of tunnels that connect major venues to protect tourists. Lucas Oil Stadium is a retractable Dome that seats 67,000 fans with a FieldTurf surface that has been ranked as the best artificial surface in 2009-10. It is also home to the Big 10 football Championship and is regarded as a fan friendly venue with state of the art amenities. Both teams receive 17.5% of the tickets. One-third of that goes to each teams suite owners, another to season ticket holders in a lottery system with the rest divided amongst coaches, players and staff. The hosting team gets 5% of the tickets, 30% is shared by the other 30 NFL teams while the NFL gives the other 30% to big ticket sponsors for promotions and as a reward. Tickets to SB XLVI ranged from $2727 to $17048 on NFL.com which were steady with LY’s. The Giants played here in 2010 while the Patriots were here in 2008 and 2009 so there is no site/crowd edge TY. EDGE: NONE GIANTS #8 OFFENSE VS PATRIOTS #31 DEFENSE Evolution is key to the NFL and the Giants are a different offense compared to what took the field in 2007. Eli Manning was still a developing QB then with an offense centered around the run game. In 2011, Manning is the centerpiece of an offense that only had 3 starters play all 16 games due to injuries. He’s had to cope with 5 different OL combo’s but unlike 2010 when he pressed and threw 25 Int’s he took more sacks to keep the team out of game changing plays. In his L4 games he’s avg’d 298 ypg (64%) with a 11-1 ratio. Along with the return to health of Bradshaw this has opened up the #32 run game which as avg’d 115 ypg (4.0) in the L4W which would be 17th vs a full season. Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz are the Giants first 1,000 yd duo in franchise history. Cruz was a local tryout for the Giants in training camp and has been the 2nd best slot WR in the NFL only to Welker. Nicks is playing with a sprained shoulder but is expected to be okay and the Giants have a good possession option with Mario Manningham as well. The one weakness with the Giants passing attack is that they lack a dependable receiving TE. Jake Ballard has potential but has been unable to stay healthy enough for Manning to get fully comfortable with. The Giants have compensated by including the RB’s in the passing game as Bradshaw, Jacobs and Ware have combined for 76 rec’s (7.4) in the reg ssn which is a good line for a TE. NE has the worst defense in terms of total yardage for a SB team allowing 411 ypg but are giving up 21.4 ppg avg. In their L4 games they are allowing 356 ypg/18.8 ppg showing they are improving. In the 24 drives by DEN/BAL, NE forced 11 punts, 2 TO’s and 2 SOD to advance. NE’s defense lacks a consistent pass rush as Belichick is having to scheme and blitz to create pressure. Inc playoffs they have 48 sks which is what NYG had in 16 games so they aren’t that far off though the loss of DE Andre Carter still lingers. The secondary is a massive concern as injuries have taken a big toll on the depth. This has forced Belichick to convert Julian Edelman from WR to DB and Sterling Moore who was waived from the OAK practice squad at one point is seeing lots of time. This is where the Giants have the biggest edge in the game as they have the depth and talent to cause problems in sub-packages against the Patriots provided their OL doesn’t give up 6 sacks like they did to SF. EDGE: GIANTS PATRIOTS #2 OFFENSE VS GIANTS #27 DEFENSE In 2007 the Patriots had their record breaking season with an offense that relied on deep vertical routes to stretch the field and open up the underneath routes for Wes Welker (112 rec’s 10.5 in 2007). However, in SB XLII it forced the OL to pass protect for far too long and the Giants elite DL tallied 5 sks and 9 QBH’s in the game keeping Brady out of rhythm. The Ravens took advantage of this in 2009 when NE was forced to play from behind and beat them in a Wildcard match by getting all over Brady. By drafting Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez in 2010, Belichick shifted the NE strategy to setting up matchups and making the offense more versatile with the pass and in the run game. It also allowed NE to capitalize on the shift to smaller S/CB hybrids on defense by using the TE’s bigger size to set up yds after contact. Welker has had a better statistical season TY (112 rec 12.9) than in 2007 as he gets favorable matchups in the slot. Gronkowski’s ankle sprain is expected to be okay and NE hasn’t been afraid to use Hernandez in situations as a runner. In 2010 NE finished 9th in rushing thanks to BenJarvis Green-Ellis and while NE is only 20th TY they are only 209 yds off the previous year. RB’s are used according to down and distance and by the foes they face week to week. The success of the TE’s TY has the RB’s with just 37 rec’s (9.8) which is a big drop off as LY Danny Woodhead alone had 34 rec’s (11.1). The shift has taken a lot of pressure off the OL which has had its share of problems TY as it was down to its 4th string Ctr vs IND/WAS. NE uses a no huddle almost a quarter of the time and is in the shotgun about 50% of the time to Brady to read and wear out defenses. The Giants aren’t intimidated by big play offenses having dealt with PHI, DAL and GB twice as well as then healthy BUF and NO. Since the GB loss the Giants are allowing 334 ypg/17.7 ppg vs 387 ypg/26.3 prior to it as DE Umenyiora, DE Tuck, CB Amukamara and LB Boley all got healthier. DL injuries forced Jason Pierre-Paul onto the field and he dominated with 16.5 sks despite working all over the line. The Giants LB’s aren’t ideal vs upper tier TE’s like NE’s and the Giants attack first style leaves them vulnerable to teams that are patient running the ball. While NE’s pass defense is criticized for giving up yards the fact that the Giants #29 pass defense has a -11 TD/int ratio is a concern. Plays can be had by savvy QB’s that aren’t flustered by the pass rush by using their hot routes and matchups. Brady’s experience and the fact the offense has seen this style with extra time to gameplan gives them a small edge here. SLIGHT EDGE: PATRIOTS SPECIAL TEAMS The Patriots have a sizeable special teams edge with my #5 special teams unit vs the Giants and their #25 special teams. It’s not unusual for high octane offenses to ignore their special teams but the Patriots put a premium on the 3rd phase of the game. It really shines in their coverage units where they had the 13th best PR avg (8.5) and 6th best KR avg (21.6) in the regular season. Stephen Gostkowski had 50 of 117 KO’s end in TB’s and NE’s foe avg start was the 19.9 yd line. He hit 10 of 13 from 40+ TY but wasn’t needed from that range vs DEN or BAL. Zoltan Mesko finished 3rd with an excellent 41.5 net avg with 24 punts landing inside the 20. NE is only avg on KR’s but they have been excellent on PR’s with a 10.3 reg ssn avg TY. The Giants finished 29th in my special teams rankings in 2010 which played a big role in keeping them out of the playoffs. They shook up the coverage units and made a switch at P for 2011. Steve Weatherford has been an upgrade at the spot for the Giants but their coverage units are avg at best coming in 17th on PR’s (9.9) and 11th on KR’s. The return units have simply been bad as their 6.1 PR is 29th and their 23.3 KR avg is 22nd. Lawrence Tynes clutch kicking got NYG to the SB for the 2nd time in 5 years vs SF but he’s only 4 of 9 from 40+ with just 37 TB’s on 95 KO’s for an avg drive start of 22.6. Steve Weatherford had a decent regular season but was solid in the playoffs with a 40.6 net avg. Yes the Giants special teams came up huge vs SF but the Patriots have been more consistent all season long and get the nod here. EDGE: PATRIOTS COACHING Both coaches are from the Bill Parcells coaching tree and spent the 1988-1990 seasons with the Giants. Coughlin was the WR’s coach and Belichick was the DC on the staff of the Giants team that won SB XXV. Belichick was also the DC of the 1986 Giants team that won SB XXI vs DEN and has had 6 assistants end up as NFL HC’s. OC Bill O’Brien has accepted the Penn St HC job but is remaining with the team here. NE brought back Josh McDaniels who was the OC prior to O’Brien to help ease the transition here. Brady had his 50 TD season with McDaniels as his OC. Belichick is his own DC calling plays and setting up the weekly game planning for the Patriots. Coughlin has had 7 former assistants go on to be NFL HC’s and has been to the playoffs in 9 of his 16 years as an NFL HC. OC Kevin Gilbride has been with Eli Manning since his rookie season starting off as his QB coach and is widely respected. While DC Perry Fewell is in his 2nd season with the team, he was the Bills DC from 2006-10 so he knows how the Patriots operate. He also runs the same basic system as what beat the 2007 Patriots but with his own twist. Neither team has a significant edge due to familiarity despite being non-conference foes. EDGE: NONE PAST HISTORY MATCHUP and INTANGIBLES Just like 2007, this is actually the 3rd time these teams face off this season. The Giants and Patriots traditionally wrap up the preseason against each other with the Giants winning 18-17. The Giants are also the last team to beat the Patriots this season as they pulled a 24-20 upset. The Giants led 10-3 after 3 Qtrs but Brady led NE on a 80/7pl drive for a TD then helped setup a 45 yd FG for the lead. The Giants countered with a 85/8pl drive for a 17-13 lead with 3:03 left. The Patriots followed with a TD drive that took just 90 seconds with a 14 yd TD to Rob Gronkowski. Manning led the Giants on an 80/8pl drive helped out by a 20 yd DPI to set up 1&gl on the 1 for the go ahead score with 15 sec left. NE had a 438-361 yd edge as Welker and Rob Gronkowski combined for 237 yds receiving. The Giants didn’t have 3 offensive starters with RB Bradshaw, Ctr Baas and WR Hicks all sitting out due to injuries as well as current nickel DB Prince Amukamara either. The Giants then went on a 4 game losing streak before getting back on track. There are numerous similarities between this game and the 2007 Super Bowl and the pressure is on NE to redeem themselves after losing SB XVII. However, the Giants can’t play the same disrespect card as before since the entire NFL knows how they are built and how they’ve used followed the 2007 path. EDGE: NONE CONCLUSION This year I am going for the rare feat of not only picking the College Football National Champ correctly from my pre-season magazine (Alabama) but also way back in early August I picked the Patriots to win Super Bowl 46 while many others were picking the Packers, Falcons and Eagles. Naturally I will stick to my preseason pick but I also think the Patriots ST’s could be the deciding difference since the teams are so close. I also think the Super Bowl 42 loss still weighs heavily on the minds of Belichick and Brady and they get their revenge here adding to two of the greatest careers in NFL history.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 31 NY GIANTS 27

AFC/NFC Championship Game Forecasts!

Phil Steele — Sun, 22 Jan 2012 17:15:16 +0000

NFL PLAYOFFS: 5-3 136-74 65% REGULAR SEASON

	AFC CHAMPIONSHIP SUNDAY, JANUARY 22nd 3:00 PM ET CBS

BALTIMORE (13-4) AT NEW ENGLAND (14-3)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
BALTIMORE	130	215	19	1.8	#25	97.6
NEW ENGLAND	106	335	35	1.2	#6	98.6
Even though they avenged their loss in 2010, the 33-14 home loss in the 2009 Wildcard round still stings the Patriots. BAL was simply the more physical team that day as they dominated all phases. This led to NE altering their offensive package to be 2 TE heavy and more physical. Both teams took advantage of inexperienced QB’s LW’s to advance. NE exerted their will vs DEN (509-252 yd edge) while BAL capitalized on HOU’s mistakes. Seventeen of BAL’s 20 pts were off TO’s with only 2 drives over 40 yds on the day. NE is now 8-1 at home TY outgaining foes by 70 ypg (+7 TO’s) for a 32-18 avg score. BAL went 4-4 on the road w/a +14 ypg mark (-5 TO’s) for a 20-18 avg score. SD, NYJ, PIT, and IND are the common foes with BAL going 4-1 w/a 331-287 yd edge (+6 TO’s) for a 26-18 avg score. NE went 4-1 being outgained 393-384 but was +9 TO’s for a 30-21 avg score. The Patriots as a whole are on a mission and the playoff sked sets up perfectly being under the radar vs Tebowmania LW and they now get a rematch in front of the fans that booed them 2 years ago. “I’d have been booing us, too, the way we played,” Brady said. “Playing the way we played today, we weren’t going to beat anybody.” I know Brady can beat any def and while BAL’s stop unit looked solid it was vs a rookie QB playing on the road with a 17-3 1Q deficit. The Ravens off LW totaled just 227 yards and 11 FD’s getting TD’s on 2/3pl and 34/5pl “drives”. Don’t discount NE’s D as they’ve played bend but don’t break with their def ypp #2 in the NFL and they’ve had 16 sacks the last 4 games.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 31 BALTIMORE 21

	NFC CHAMPIONSHIP SATURDAY, JANUARY 22nd 6:30 PM ET FOX

NY GIANTS (11-7) AT SAN FRANCISCO (14-3)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
NY GIANTS	63	273	21	2.2	#11	99.5
SAN FRANCISCO	133	200	23	1.3	#6	97.6
Both teams capitalized LW on stout defensive play to turn the tables against two of the NFL’s premier QB’s to advance to the NFC Championship. Earlier this year SF caught the Giants at an ideal time as they were off a big road win vs NE with B2B primetime events vs PHI/NO on deck. The Giants pulled to within 7 halfway thru the 4th Qtr and were threatening to tie at the end but DE Justin Smith deflected the pass on 4th&2 on the SF 10. The Giants had a 395-305 yd edge holding the ball for 34:37. Manning had 311 yds (65%) w/a 2-2 ratio while Smith hit for 242 yds (63%) w/a 1-1 ratio. SF while they have only outgained foes by 12 ypg at home TY they are an amazing +23 TO’s for their 29-13 avg score. The Giants are 6-3 on the road TY (inc SF) where they have been outgained by 7 ypg (+7 TO’s) with a 27-26 avg score. There are plenty of common foes TY with the divisions facing each other and NO was the 1 NDIV foe that both teams faced. The Giants were outgained by 8 ypg (+2 TO’s) overall for a 26-24 avg score but 4 games were at the start of the year when the OL was adjusting and the secondary was beat up. SF was outgained by 4 ypg but were +25 TO’s for a 26-18 avg score. The Giants remind me of last year’s Packers squad using late season momentum and being in better health than earlier in the season. The Giants have proven to be road warriors pulling upsets at PHI (29-16), at NE (24-20) and at DAL (37-34). They also benefit from an earlier meeting here in which they outgained SF 395-305. The 49ers needed 5 Saints turnovers to survive last week and you can’t expect the emotion to match LW’s first playoff game at home since 2002. SF has allowed a staggering 27 sacks their last 7 games and expect the now healthy NY D-line (17 sacks L/4 games inc 4 vs GB) to take over.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NY GIANTS 20 SAN FRANCISCO 17

East-West Shrine Game

Phil Steele — Sat, 21 Jan 2012 18:05:05 +0000

Todays blog will give you each roster for the East-West Shrine complete with my post season awards, and PS#’s.

The East-West Shrine game is the oldest annual post season all star game and has been played every year since 1925. Although the East won last years game 25-8 the West is still winning the series 45-35-5. The game features many future pros as 90% of last years participants were either drafted or signed on as a free agent in the NFL.

Even though the game is an American football competition, players playing Canadian university football have been invited every year since 1985. The Shrine game is the only game on either the Canadian or American college football schedules in which players from both sides of the border compete with or against each other.

Most importantly the game is played to raise funds for the 22 Shriners Hospitals around the country.

Make sure you check back on Sunday to get my forecasts for the NFL Conference Championship games.

87th East-West Shrine Game
January 21st, 2012 at 4 p.m. EST
Florida Citrus Bowl
Orlando, Florida

East Roster:
Head Coach: Bobby Ross

Pos	Player	School	Conf	PS#	PS Awards
Q	Austin Davis	Southern Miss	CUSA	285	2ND TM CUSA
B’	B.J. Coleman	Tennessee-Chattanooga	FCS
S	John Brantley	Florida	SEC	4	-

R	Alfred Morris	Florida Atlantic	SBC	148	1ST TM SBC
B’	Bruce Figgins	Georgia (Fullback)	SEC	23TE	-
S	Davin Meggett	Maryland	ACC	97	-
	Tauren Poole	Tennessee	SEC	51	-

	B.J. Cunningham	Michigan State	BIG 10	198	1ST TM BIG 10
	AJ Jenkins	Illinois	BIG 10	54	1ST TM BIG 10
W	Kevin Hardy	The Citadel	FCS
R’	Lance Lewis	East Carolina	CUSA	284JC	3RD TM CUSA
S	LaRon Byrd	Miami (Fl.)	ACC	44	-
	T.J. Graham	North Carolina State	ACC	105	-
	Thomas Mayo	Cal (PA)
	Tim Benford	Tennessee Tech	FCS

T	Chase Ford	Miami (Fl.)	ACC	41JC	-
E’	Emmanuel Igwenagu	UMass	FCS
S	Evan Rodriguez	Temple	MAC	43DB	1ST TM MAC

C	Quentin Saulsberry	Mississippi State	SEC	148	3RD TM SEC
	Tyler Horn	Miami (Fl.)	ACC		2ND TM ACC

	Bradley Sowell	Mississippi	SEC	81	-
O	Jeff Adams	Columbia	FCS
T’	Joe Long	Wayne State
S	Lamar Holmes	Southern Miss	CUSA	35JC	1ST TM CUSA

	Derek Dennis	Temple	MAC		-
O	Desmond Wynn	Rutgers	BE	154	3RD TM BIG EAST
G’	Jeremiah Warren	South Florida	BE	239	1ST TM BIG EAST
S	Rishaw Johnson	Cal (PA)


	Travian Robertson	South Carolina	SEC	26	-
D	Jabaree Tuani	Navy	IND	352	IST TM IND
-	Julian Miller	West Virginia	BE	128	1ST TM BIG EAST
L	Kyle Wilber	Wake Forest	ACC	167	3RD TM ACC
I	Akiem Hicks	Regina (Ca.)
N	Matt Conrath	Virginia	ACC	171	2ND TM ACC
E	Micanor Regis	Miami (Fl.)	ACC	32	-
	Nick Jean-Baptiste	Baylor	B12

	Brandon Lindsey	Pittsburgh	BE	56	2ND TM BIG EAST
	Joshua Linam	Central Florida	CUSA	112	-
L	Max Gruder	Pittsburgh	BE	404	1ST TM BIG EAST
B’	Naji Goode	West Virginia	BE	310	1ST TM BIG EAST
S	Nick Sukay	Penn State	BIG 10	24	-
	Shawn Loiseau	Merrimack College
	Steven Erzinger	Army	IND		IST TM IND

	Charles Brown	North Carolina	ACC	298	-
C	Emanuel Davis	East Carolina	CUSA	199	3RD TM CUSA
B’	Gary Gray	Notre Dame	IND	12	2ND TM IND
S	Justin Bethel	Presbyterian College	FCS
	Micah Pellerin	Hampton	FCS
	R.J. Blanton	Notre Dame	IND	22	IST TM IND
	Josh Norman	Coastal Carolina	FCS
S
A	Christian Thompson	South Carolina State	FCS
F’	Jerrell Young	South Florida	BE		3RD TM BIG EAST
S	Matt Daniels	Duke	ACC	106	1ST TM ACC
	Tysyn Hartman	Kansas State	B12		2ND TM B12

P	Shawn Powell	Florida State	ACC	54	1ST TM ACC

K	Blair Walsh	Georgia	SEC	5	-

West Roster:
Head Coach: Brad Childress

Pos	Player	School	Conf	PS#	PS Awards
Q	Chandler Harnish	Northern Illinois	MAC	98	1ST TM MAC
B’	Dan Persa	Northwestern	BIG 10	53	-
S	Tyler Hansen	Colorado	PAC 12	90	-

R	Bobby Rainey	WKU	SBC	102	IST TM SBC
B’	Cody Johnson	Texas (Fullback)	B12	62	-
S	Lennon Creer	Louisiana Tech	WAC	6	3RD TM WAC
	Marc Tyler	USC	PAC 12	1	-

	Dale Moss	South Dakota State	FCS
	Devon Wylie	Fresno State	WAC	406	-
W	Darius Hanks	Alabama	SEC	284	-
R’	Greg Childs	Arkansas	SEC	48	-
S	Jarius Wright	Arkansas	SEC	36	1ST TM SEC
	Junior Hemingway	Michigan	BIG 10	17	-
	Tyler Shoemaker	Boise State	MWC		1ST TM MW

T	Cory Harkey	UCLA	PAC 12	98	-
E’	David Paulson	Oregon	PAC 12	26	2ND TM PAC 12
S	George Bryan	North Carolina State	ACC	45	2ND TM ACC
	Kevin Koger	Michigan	BIG 10	15	-

C	David Snow	Texas	B12	28	-
	Moe Petrus	UConn	BE	485	1ST TM BIG EAST

	Al Netter	Northwestern	BIG 10	390	-
O	Marcel Jones	Nebraska	BIG 10	77	-
T’	Matt Reynolds	BYU	IND	5	IST TM IND
S	Ryan Miller	Colorado	PAC 12	1	-
	Tom Compton	South Dakota	FCS

O	Ben Heenan	Saskatchewan (Ca.)
G’	Brandon Brooks	Miami, Oh	MAC	104	2ND TM MAC
S	Josh LeRibeus	SMU	CUSA	177	-
	Markus Zusevics	Iowa	BIG 10	153	-

	Arnaud Gascon-Nadon	Laval University (Ca.)
D	DaJohn Harris	USC	PAC 12	5	-
-	Dominique Hamilton	Missouri	B12	124	2ND TM B12
L	Justin Francis	Rutgers	BE	206	3RD TM BIG EAST
I	Kaniela Tuipulotu	Hawaii	WAC	65	2ND TM WAC
N	Kentrell Lockett	Mississippi	SEC	42	-
E	Tyrone Crawford	Boise State	MWC	39JC	1ST TM MW
	Vaughn Meatoga	Hawaii	WAC	226	2ND TM WAC

	Jerry Franklin	Arkansas	SEC	171	2ND TM SEC
	Josh Kaddu	Oregon	PAC 12	278	1ST TM PAC 12
L	Ronnie Thornton	Southern Miss	CUSA	391	1ST TM CUSA
B’	Steven Johnson	Kansas	B12		3RD TM BIG 12
S	Tank Carder	TCU	MWC		1st tm AA ’10
	Brandon Marshall	Nevada	WAC	353	1ST TM WAC


	Brandon Hardin	Oregon State	PAC 12	274	-
C	Chris Greenwood	Albion College
B’	Keith Tandy	West Virginia	BE	195	1ST TM BIG EAST
S	Rodney McLeod	Virginia	ACC	72	-
	Shaun Prater	Iowa	BIG 10	132	2ND TM BIG 10
	Trevin Wade	Arizona	PAC 12		1st tm P10 ’09

S	Aaron Henry	Wisconsin	BIG 10	139	1ST TM BIG 10
A	Austin Cassidy	Nebraska	BIG 10	169	-
F’	Blake Gideon	Texas	B12	178	-
S	Duke Ihenaho	San Jose State	WAC	280	1ST TM WAC

P	Bryan Anger	Cal	PAC 12	1	1ST TM PAC 12

K	Greg Zuerlein	NW Missouir St

Bowl News and Notes Plus Playoff Recaps

Phil Steele — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 16:13:23 +0000

COTTON BOWL Arkansas 29 Kansas St 16 Dome. KSU had a 19-13 FD edge but Ark a 345-260 yd edge. Joe Adams got his 4th PR TD on the yr and this one was 51 yds. AU had their first 11 win season since Lou Holtz’s 1977 team and Frank Broyles only undefeated season at Ark (1964). This was played in Jerry Jones’ (Ark alum) Dallas Cowboys Stadium. AU came in #6 in the BCS and KSU #8. AU’s first FD didn’t come until early 2Q but thanks to the PR TD they led 19-2 with KSU’s 2 pts coming on a blk’d xp ret’d for 2. It was 19-16 late 3Q when AU on 3&9 got a 9 yd td pass, 26-16 (3:57). KSU missed a 43 yd FG with 6:36 left. AU got a 30 yd FG with 3:30 left and KSU got to the AU37 but on 4&16 was int’d at the 25 and ret’d 61 yds.

SUN BOWL Utah 30 Georgia Tech 27 OT GT led Utah 24-10 into the 4Q but UT got td’s with 6:50 and 1:32 left to tie. GT missed a 48 yd FG with :02 left sending it to OT. The first time in the 77 year history of the Sun Bowl it had gone to OT. GT had earlier missed two 40 yd FG’s and GT finished with a 448-337 yd edge and 19-14 FD edge losing their 7th straight bowl appearance while Utah moved to 7-1 in bowls under Whittingham. GT’s Preston Lyons who had just 39 carries on the year, rushed for 138 yds as David Sims was out with an injury and Orwin Smith was banged up. GT got a 74 yd IR TD in the 3Q to go up 24-10. UT converted on 4&3 for their first 4Q TD and opted to punt on 4&3 from their own 25 with 2:48 left but a 31 yd PR set them up at the GT24 and the TD came on a 4&14, 28 yd pass. After GT got a FG in OT, UT on 3&gl from the 8 got an 8 yd td run by White for the win.

KRAFT FIGHT HUNGER BOWL Illinois 20 UCLA 14 This game featured 2 teams that did not have winning records and both had interim HC’s. Whitney Mercilus tied Simeon Rice’s school record for in a season with 16 sks. IL won their first 6 of the year, lost the next 6 but got a winning season at 7-6 while UCLA, despite being in a bowl actually finished the year 6-8. IL had a 178-18 rush edge and 326-219 yd edge. UCLA came in avg 190.7 ypg rushing but was held to a season low. LA was the first team to go to a bowl with a losing record since North Texas in 2001. Officials used an Oreo cookie for the opening coin toss and there were 29,878 tix sold. There were some blown opportunities. IL was int’d at the LA31 and SOD at their own 44 in the 1H. That SOD set up a UCLA 44 yd drive for a TD and LA led 7-0 (10:02 2Q). IL faked a FG on 4&1 from the LA23 and were SOD and settled for a 36 yd FG after taking a sk on 3&gl from the 3. LA missed a 34 yd FG in the 3Q and IL missed a 37 yd FG. IL got ahead with a 39 yd IR TD and on 3&8 got a 60 yd TD pass with 5:36 left to basically clinch it at 20-7 (5:36). LA punted with 4:04 left on 4&14 but drove 84/9pl getting a garbage TD with :29 left and IL rec’d the onside kick.

ORANGE BOWL West Virginia 70 Clemson 33 Tavon Austin tied a record for any bowl with 4 TD rec’s and TO’s were a big key to WV’s dominance over CU as 3 TO’s in the 2Q turned a close game into a blowout. CU was playing its first major bowl in 30 years and WV improved to 3-0 in BCS bowl games. It was expected to be a high scoring game and WV did finish with a 589-443 yd edge. The key play of the game was a 99 yd FR TD. CU had a 1st & gl at the WV3 and were poised to retake the lead 24-21 when that play happened to put them down by 11. CU then turned it over twice in the final 2:00 of the 1H setting up 32 and 18 yd “drives” for quick TD’s, the latter coming with just :04 left in the half and WV blew open a close game and led 49-20 and then went 73 and 74 yds on their first 2 drives of the 2H vs a deflated CU team to lead 63-20. It was actually 70-26 (6:21) with CU getting a TD with 1:01 left to “only” lose by 37 pts.

ROSE BOWL Oregon 45 Wisconsin 38 UO won their first Rose Bowl game since they beat Penn in 1917, 14-0. That year they wore leather helmets and here they wore mirrored helmets. Montee Ball rushed for 164 yds and LaMichael James 159. After the bowl, Ball declared he was coming back and James left early for the NFL. D’Anthony Thomas only had 2 carries for the Ducks but made the most of them with 91 and 64 yd TD runs. The 2 combined to produce the highest scoring 1Q (14-14) and 1H (28-28) in Rose Bowl history and their 83 pts topped the 1991 Rose Bowl when Washington and Iowa combined for 80. UO finished with a 621-508 yd edge. UW led 38-35 after 3Q’s and then trailing 45-38, had a 29 yd pass down to the UO27 but fmbl’d with 4:06 left. They got it back on their 13, got 29 and 33 yd passes but with :02 left, the ref spotted the ball and they snapped and spiked it but it was ruled time ran out and they did not get a chance at one more shot from the Duck25.

FIESTA BOWL Oklahoma St 41 Stanford 38 OT The game started like it would be anything but high scoring as on the first 8 poss there was just 1 TD into the 2Q but the teams would combine for 35 pts in the 2Q incl 43 and 67 yd TD passes to Blackmon. SU did not trail in the entire 2H. OSU, down 38-31, converted on 4&3 for a 21 yd pass from its own 40 to keep a drive alive and got a TD with 2:35 left. SU went 63/9pl and lined up for a 35 yd FG from the middle of the field. Their K had not missed from under 40 all year but missed then missed again in OT and OSU escaped with the win.

BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP Alabama 21 LSU 0 - LSU didn’t cross midfield until 8:00 were left in the game as Alabama proved that they are one of the top defenses in NCAA history. They held LSU to 5 FD’s and 92 yds. Jeremy Shelley tied a bowl record with 5 FG’s and the game was somewhat of a replay of their 9-6 OT match except Bama completely dominated this one on offense, defense and special teams. Trent Richardson rushed 20 times for 96 yards and got the first TD in the 2 games with 4:36 left on a 34 yard run. AJ McCarron was the star player as they threw on FD all but twice and McCarron hit 23-34-234 yds. Bama even lost their top PR/WR Marquis Maze after a long PR in the 1Q and he DNR. Bama missed 2 FG’s in the game with a 42 yd’r blk’d and a 41 yd’r being missed late 3Q and LSU when they crossed midfield with 7:53 left was actually still within 2 scores despite the domination but after Bama went up 21-0 LSU opted to punt on 4&9 from their own 24 with 2:47 left and Bama’s final play ended at the LSU 40.

WILDCARD HOUSTON 31 vs Cincinnati 10 - Houston had its first ever playoff game and it was at home in front of a charged up crowd. Cincinnati was coming off a home game vs Baltimore which was like a playoff game but they had come up short and now had a rookie QB making a playoff road start. Foster rushed for 153 yards (6.4). Dalton did outstat TJ Yates hitting 27-42-257 while Yates hit 11-20-159. Each team went 3&out to open. HOU got 1 FD and punted and CIN went 74/5pl, the key a 52 yd PI down to the 20. The TD put the Bengals up 7-0. HOU answered with an 80/6pl drive and Foster’s 8 yd td run tied it at 7. CIN went on a 14pl drive but on 3&8 was sk’d for a 9 yd loss and missed 50 yd FG (12:45 2Q). CIN20 went 61/8pl for a 37 yd FG, 10-7 (7:09). HOU went 59/13pl and settled for a 39 yd FG, 10-10 (1:48). The key play of the game happened after the Bengals got 1 FD to their 34. Dalton threw a short pass that was int’d by DL Watt and ret’d 29 yds for a TD and HOU led 17-10 (:52). CIN got 1 FD and was sk’d. At half the yards were even at 156. The first three 2H poss were punts. HOU took over with 5:45 left in the 3Q and went 83/9pl and got a 40 yd TD pass to Johnson, 24-10. CIN20 got 2 FD but on 4&3 were int’d from the HOU47. Joseph actually should have dropped the int as it cost them 23 yds of field position and HOU started at their 24. HOU got 2 FD’s and punted with just 7:25 left. CIN was then int’d at their own 45 and HOU’s Foster ripped off a 42 yd TD run down the right sideline where he barely stayed in bounds, 31-10 (5:15). CIN gained 71 yds on 13 plays getting to the HOU9 where they were SOD on 4&5 with 2:23 left.

WILDCARD NEW ORLEANS 45 Detroit 28 -. DET rushed for just 32 yds and Drew Brees hit 33-43-466 as the Saints piled up a 626-412 yd edge. Two TO’s in the 1H kept it close. DET opened with an 80/8pl drive and got a 10 yd TD pass. NO19 got 2 FD’s but fmbl’d at the DET18. DET got 2 FD’s to midfield and punted. NO went 89/11pl for a TD, 7-7 (14:01 2Q). DET went 87/9pl for a TD, 14-7 (9:11). NO20 got 3 FD’s but fmbl’d at the DET38. After DET went 3&out punting with 5:03 left, NO went 78/14pl but settled for a 24 yd FG on the last play of the half on 3rd down. At the half the Saints had a 256-210 yd edge but trailed by 4. NO scored TD’s on their first five 2H drives. The opened with a 78/4pl drive for a TD. DET got 1 FD and punted. NO went 92/13pl for a TD, 24-14 (4:03). DET went 80/8pl and got a 1 yd TD run, 24-21 (1:08 3Q). NO went 80/14pl for a 17 yd TD run by Sproles, 31-21 (9:53). DET was int’d on a deep pass and the Saints went 61/4pl for a TD, 38-21. DET went 79/9pl and got a 12 yd TD pass with 4:40 left, 38-28. NO rec’d the onside kick then went 44/4pl for a TD with 3:36 left. DET20 got 1 FD and was int’d and ret’d 17 yds to their own 33. NO got a FD to the 7 and took a knee.

WILDCARD DENVER 29 Pittsburgh 23 OT - The story here was two-fold. Injuries to PIT and big plays in the passing game for Tebow. PIT came in without their top rusher Mendenhall, C Pouncy and S Clark and a banged up Roethlisberger. During the game, their entire D-line was injured and out by mid-2Q and they also lost starting OT Starks. The Steelers game plan was to take away the Bronco rush and that left Tebow some deep passes. He had just 10 completions for the game but they went for an amazing 316 yards. PIT looked like they would dominate early. They opened with a 53/8pl drive for a 45 yd FG. DEN went 3&out on their first 2 poss. PIT punted on their 2nd poss but then went 47/12pl and settled for another FG, this one 38 yds and led 6-0 in a dominating 1Q where they had 119-10 yd edge. DEN went 80/5pl with a 30 yd TD pass to Royal. That was set up by a 21 yd pass to Decker and DEN led 7-6 (13:24 2Q). PIT went 3&out and DEN got a 58 yd pass to Thomas on its 2nd play and went 73/4pl for an 8 yd Tebow TD run, 14-6. PIT was int’d at their own 27 and ret’d 9 yds. DEN got 1 FD and settled for a 20 yd FG, 17-6 (7:30). PIT got 1 FD and punted (5:09). DEN31 went 59/8pl and got a 28 yd FG with 1:08 left in the half, 20-6. PIT got 2 FD’s to the DEN 38 but on 3&4 from the 32, Roethlisberger fmbl’d the snap and was tkl’d for a loss and PIT punted. At half DEN had a 233-170 yd edge. DEN opened the 3Q (20) with 3 FD’s to the PIT38 but punted 26 yds. PIT13 went 87/11pl for a TD, 20-13. DEN went 63/12pl and got a 35 yd FG, 23-13 with 13:10 left. PIT went 61/7pl but settled for a 37 yd FG, 23-16. DEN got 2 FD’s but then McGahee fmbl’d and PIT appeared poised for the win. They went 55/7pl and got a TD to tie with 3:48 left. DEN got 1 FD and punted and PIT (24) once again got to the DEN45 but Roethlisberger was sk’d and fumbled for an 11 yd loss and they punted on 4&14. In OT DEN won the toss and on the first play, Tebow went deep and found Thomas for an 80 yd TD. Even in the new playoff OT rules, that ended the game.

WILDCARD NY GIANTS 24 Atlanta 2 - ATL was a dome team playing outdoors but it was 44? with 12 mph winds. The story here was two failed 4th down conversions which really set the tone for the game. The first 5 poss opened with punts and just 1 combined FD. ATL went 66/14pl but on 4&1 on the first play of the 2Q were SOD. Two plays later, however, Eli Manning was called for intentional grounding in the EZ on 2&21 from the 13 so ATL got a safety and the lead, 2-0. ATL38 got 1 FD and punted. NYG went 85/13pl with 9 runs on the drive. The TD made it 7-2. 2 punts. ATL took over with 1:08 left in the half (20) and got 2 FD’s. At half NYG had a slim 128-127 yd edge. ATL opened the 3Q with a punt and NYG went 72/11pl but settled for a 22 yd FG after a 1st & gl at the 5, 10-2. ATL21 went 58/9pl but on 4&1 were SOD at the NYG21. Three plays later Manning found Hicks for a 72 yd TD pass where he was wide open over the middle then outraced the secondary in the EZ, 17-2. ATL went 3&out and the NYG went 85/10pl and got a 27 yd TD pass to Manningham to lead 24-2 with 9:55 left. ATL punted on 4&10 and the NYG went on a time consuming 71/12pl drive eating up 6:25 and missing a 32 yd FG with 2:57 left. ATL gained 54/10pl being SOD on 4&10 at the NYG17 with 1:01 left. NYG had a 442-247 yd edge.

CONF SEMI-FINALS SAN FRANCISCO 36 New Orleans 32 - Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers. There has been a grand total of one team that has ever won a playoff game giving up 5 TO’s and that was back in 1977 when the Oakland beat the Baltimore Colts. The TO’s kept the Saints from dominating but this turned out to be one of the most exciting finishes of any playoff game. With 1:37 left in the game, NO had 26-14 FD and 472-322 yd edges and led by 3 but Alex Smith hit a huge 47 yd pass to Vernon Davis which got him in scoring position and they got a 14 yd TD pass while in FG range to tie it with :09 left. Had that pass been incomplete, the game would have gone to OT. NO opened with a 78/12pl drive but fmbl’d at the 2. Each team punted and SF got a 49 yd TD pass to Davis to go up 7-0. It was a 54/2pl drive. NO14 got 1 FD and then were int’d and ret’d 41 yds to the 4. SF got a TD 3pl later, 14-0. NO then fmbl’d the KO at their own 13 and SF got a 25 yd FG to lead 17-0 giving them scoring drives of 3 and 4 yds. The Saints went 80/9pl for a TD. SF went 3&out and the Saints went 66/7pl for a TD, 17-14. SF punted but the Saints were int’d at the SF29 with 1:54 left in the half. Each team punted and then SF fmbl’d at their own 45 but NO could not capitalize on SF’s lone TO as they fired incomplete 3 times. NO fmbl’d the punt at their own 26 and SF got a 3 yd drive for a 41 yd FG. 4 punts. NO went 47/9pl getting a 48 yd FG to pull within 20-17. 2 punts. SF36 got a 42 yd run by Gore to the 22 and got a 37 yd FG to go up by 6, 23-17 (7:36). NO went 79/9pl and got a TD for the lead with 4:02 left on a 44 yd pass to Sproles. SF answered. On 3&8 it appeared they were going to settle for a FG but Alex Smith ran around the left end 28 yds for a TD and the 2 pt failed and SF led 29-24 with 2:11 left. NO12 got 2 FD’s then a 66 yd TD pass to Graham appeared to give them win. The 2pt conv made it 32-29 with 1:37 left. SF got 1 FD and then a 47 yd pass to Davis and on 3&4 in FG range for OT, took one final shot at the EZ and their wish was granted as it was a 14 yd TD to Davis for the outright win.

CONF SEMI-FINALS NEW ENGLAND 45 Denver 10 - Tim Tebow, Tim Tebow, Tim Tebow. The media focus on Tim Tebow all week and Tom Brady made sure folks didn’t forget about him. He hit 26-34-363 yds and tied an NFL Playoff record with 6 TD passes. The record was set by Daryle Lamonica in 1969 and tied by Steve Young in the 1995 Super Bowl. The outcome was decided by halftime. NE rolled up 31-15 FD and 509-252 yd edges. NE opened with a quick 80/5pl drive for a TD. DEN got a pair of FD’s to the NE37 but Tebow was sk’d and fmbl’d. NE quickly went 59/7pl for a TD, 14-0. DEN17 got 1 FD and punted. NE13 got 1 FD and was int’d and ret’d 17 yds to their own 24. They set the Broncos up for a 24/4pl drive and McGahee’s 5 yd TD appeared to make a game of it, 14-7. NE got 1 FD to midfield and punted but DEN went 3&out and NE went 52/8pl for a TD, 21-7 (7:42). 3 punts. NE took over with 2:27 left in the half and got a 61 yd TD pass to Branch with just 1:57 left. DEN threw the ball twice and punted with 1:09 left. The Pats made them pay with a 58/5pl drive for a TD with :05 left, a 19 yd pass to Gronkowski, 35-7. At the half NE had 19-7 FD and 351-120 yd edges. DEN went 3&out and NE went 44/4pl after a 15 yd PR by Edleman, 42-7. DEN went 3&out and NE(49) got 2 FD’s to the DEN23 but fmbl’d. DEN went 58/14pl and got a 41 yd FG with 2:14 left in the 3Q, 42-10. NE went 78/11pl for a 20 yd FG, 45-10 (12:39). DEN went 77/14pl and were SOD on 4&gl at the NE3. NE got 2 FD’s and punted with 2:56 left and DEN was happy to run the clock out taking over at their own 5 and getting 1 FD with 5 runs.

NFL Divisional Playoff Forecasts!

Phil Steele — Sat, 14 Jan 2012 17:38:09 +0000

NFL PLAYOFFS: 3-1 LW! 136-74 65% REGULAR SEASON

	NFC SEMI-FINALS SATURDAY, JANUARY 14TH 4:30 PM ET FOX

NEW ORLEANS (14-3) AT SAN FRANCISCO (13-3)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
NEW ORLEANS	108	335	30	1.7	#5	97.7
SAN FRANCISCO	110	253	23	0.8	#1	97.6
Jim Harbaugh followed up leading Stanford to a 12-1 season and its 1st BCS bowl win by taking SF to their 1st NFC West title since 2002. SF is 7-1 at home and while they’ve only outgained foes by an avg of 21 ypg owning an NFL best +19 TO’s has set up a 28-11 avg score. NO beat a very different SF team 25-22 on MNF in Wk 2 LY. SF had a 417-287 yd edge but 4 TO’s killed their momentum as NO hit a 37 yd FG on the final play to win. NO is on the road being +84 ypg (2nd best) but were -7 TO’s. NO has broken the 500 yd mark in 6 gms TY while SF has only tallied 3 games of 400 yds offense. While I would usually pick the team with a strong D at home this NO squad has the potential of making a very impressive SB run. While extra motivation is not needed NO certainly remembers losing to an NFC West tm LY while also knowing that they are only the 2nd ever team to win 13 reg ssn gms and not have a bye.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ORLEANS 30 SAN FRANCISCO 20

	AFC SEMI-FINALS SATURDAY, JANUARY 14TH 8:00 PM ET CBS

DENVER (9-8) AT NEW ENGLAND (13-3)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
DENVER	158	208	18	2.2	#11	99.2
NEW ENGLAND	133	328	40	1.3	#6	98.6
For the 4th time in the L/9Y the Pats have secured the #1 seed in the AFC despite having the #31 D in the NFL. They are also the only team to have logged a winning record in 11 str years since FA opened in 1993. That said NE is under a lot of pressure having lost 3 straight playoff gms. Brady has avg’d 240 ypg (60%) with just a 5-4 ratio in the L3 losses. NE went 7-1 at home TY with the Giants loss snapping a 20 game home win streak. They were +47 ypg at home in 2011 (7th) with a +8 TO mark for a 31-19 avg score. They beat DEN 41-23 just 4 wks ago. DEN had a 16-7 lead after their 1st 3 drives. NE adjusted mid-stride and dominated DEN 34-7 from there with a 363-168 yd edge holding the Broncos to 70 yds rush in the 2H. DEN went 5-3 on the road TY being outgained by 42 ypg (24th) with -2 TO’s for a 25-22 scoring deficit. LY’s home playoff loss will have the ply’rs, cch’s and fans all taking nothing for granted. The Tebow express cont’d by pulling the upset but that was at home against a depleted and banged up Steelers squad. DEN also goes from the late OT game Sun to a Sat gm plus travels across county. I’m picking Brady vs any D and will relish the thought of Belichick devising a gameplan to shutdown the Broncos.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 34 DENVER 17

	AFC SEMI-FINALS SUNDAY JANUARY 15TH 1:00 PM ET CBS

HOUSTON (11-6) AT BALTIMORE (12-4)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
HOUSTON	120	160	16	0.6	#14	97.4
BALTIMORE	135	218	23	1.7	#25	97.7
BAL earned its 3rd ever AFC North title and finished 12-4 for the 3rd time in franchise history. They are a very exp’d with this being their 8th postseason game in the L4Y and they are the only team with a playoff win in each of the L3Y. The Ravens went a perfect 8-0 at home TY with the 4th best ydg differential at +86 ypg (+5 TO’s) for a 27-15 avg score. Joe Flacco hasn’t been very impressive in the playoffs avg just 150 ypg (53%) with a 4-7 ratio in his 7 starts though he didn’t have to do much vs NE in 2009. HOU went 5-3 on the road TY outgaining foes by 66 ypg (3rd best) while tying GB for an NFL best +12 TO’s setting up a 26-19 avg score. BAL has won 3 str vs Kubiak including a 29-14 win back in Wk 6 coming off a bye week. BAL had a 402-293 yd edge but settled for 2 TD’s/5 FG’s inside the HOU30 before taking a victory knee at the end. HOU had 2 TD’s, 6 punts and were SOD 3 times with Schaub at the helm. Run the ball and play great D it’s what got these 2 teams to this matchup. This gm pits the league’s #2 and #3 overall D’s while they rank #3 and #4 in scoring D. On off they both prefer to slow the clock as the Texans are tied for the NFL’s most rush att’s while BAL is #8. When two teams are nearly mirror images of one another I’ll go with the more experienced home team.
PHIL’S FORECAST: BALTIMORE 21 HOUSTON 13

	NFC SEMI-FINALS SUNDAY JANUARY 15TH 4:30 PM ET CBS

NY GIANTS (10-7) AT GREEN BAY (15-1)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
NY GIANTS	119	328	27	2.3	#26	99.4
GREEN BAY	101	373	34	1.1	#10	98.4
The Packers are the #1 seed in the NFC for the 1st time since 1996 thanks to the 6th 15-1 record in the NFL history. They are a stellar 17-1 at home and have won all 8 HG’s for the 1st time since 2002. GB has outscored foes 40-21 at home TY despite being outgained by an avg of 4 ypg (+2 TO’s). Mike McCarthy is 23-1 at home when GB scores 30 or more. GB beat the Giants 38-35 earlier TY. Both QB’s combined for over 700 yds passing with GB going 68/5pl in :58 to hit the game winning FG as time expired. The Giants went 5-3 on the road TY being outgained by 12 ypg (+4 TO’s) but on the short end of a 27-26 scoring avg. They are however 4-1 on the road in the playoffs under Coughlin with a 21-18 avg score. NY’s D is showed what they’re capable of with a healthy D-line but that was against an ultra conservative offense with absolutely no surprises. The Giants have played physical must-win games vs the Jets, the Cowboys and the Falcons the L/3W and will struggle facing an elite QB for the first time since facing GB and NO in B2B weeks. Against the NFC’s top 2 offenses the Giants allowed a combined 87 pts, 60 FD’s, 1,026 yds and 732 passing yards.
PHIL’S FORECAST: GREEN BAY 30 NY GIANTS 21

GoDaddy Bowl and NFL Wildcard Forecasts

Phil Steele — Sun, 08 Jan 2012 17:09:31 +0000

NFL WILD CARD PLAYOFFS: 2-0 YESTERDAY! 136-74 65% REGULAR SEASON

	NFC WILDCARD SUNDAY JANUARY 8TH 1:00 PM ET FOX

ATLANTA (10-6) VS NY GIANTS (9-7)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
ATLANTA	110	265	23	1.6	#19	98.2
NY GIANTS	91	295	30	1.8	#23	99.5
These teams haven’t met since mid-2009 w/the Giants winning 34-31 in OT. The Giants went 4-4 at home TY w/a +30 yd edge (+3 TO’s) for a 23.3-23.1 avg score. ATL went 4-4 on the road w/a +47 ypg differential (+1 TO’s) getting outscored 23-20. ATL went 2-3 vs the common foes of PHI, SEA, GB, and NO getting outgained by 28 ypg (+2 TO’s) and outscored 31-24 on avg. The Giants earned a 1-4 record w/a -46 ypg margin (-1 TO’s) and was outscored 31-25 on avg. Over the last four weeks, the Giants have the #8 and #16 units (+3 TO’s) vs a good Dallas offense, a tougher than advertised Washington team and a physical Jets defense. Atlanta has the #4 and #17 units (+9 TO’s) but has faced a weak Carolina def, a depleted Jacksonville team, was hammered by New Orleans and beat a Tampa Bay team that quit at Thanksgiving. We now have a dome team in cold weather vs a Giants team playing with confidence with a brutal DL and home crowd. I’m going with the more physical team at home here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NY GIANTS 27 ATLANTA 20

	AFC WILDCARD SUNDAY JANUARY 8TH 4:30 PM ET CBS

PITTSBURGH (12-4) VS DENVER (8-8)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
PITTSBURGH	129	208	21	1.2	#12	97.5
DENVER	170	81	11	3.3	#15	99.2
The last meeting was in 2009 when PIT beat DEN 28-10. This is also the 1st playoff game for DEN since PIT beat them 34-17 back in ’05. The Steelers have gone 5-3 on the road TY despite being +62 yds (4th best) due to a -11 TO mark. DEN has been outgained by 39 ypg at home (28th) and are -10 TO’s for a 3-5 record. PIT beat Fox’s Panthers 27-3 LY. DEN has struggled vs winning teams TY going 1-4 being outgained by 82 ypg (29th) with -11 TO’s losing 35-19. PIT has outgained their winning foes by 62 ypg (3rd best) but -12 TO’s have them 4-4. PIT has a massive edge in postseason experience with most of LY’s team that made it to the SB still on the roster. For all the excitement that Tebow has brought to the Bronco’s he’s clearly their biggest weakness. DEN has been held to under 20 pts in 8 of his starts and by keeping him in the pocket he can be controlled. He now matches up vs a PIT defense that is allowing 258 ypg and 8 ppg since its bye week. In losing Mendenhall with a beat up OL (again) the Steelers will be challenged to go downfield more in a hostile venue. With Roethlisberger not having as much mobility to extend plays and Dick LeBeau having a disciplined, aggressive unit to contain Tebow look for a lower scoring game with the Steelers coming out on top.
PHIL’S FORECAST: PITTSBURGH 20 DENVER 13

	GODADDY.COM BOWL Sunday, January 8th @ 9:00 p.m. Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

ARKANSAS ST (10-2) VS NORTHERN ILLINOIS (10-3)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
ARKANSAS ST	145	323	35	2.0	••	91.3
NORTHERN ILLINOIS	196	213	30	2.7	-	86.6
This bowl got the matchup they wanted with the MAC Champ vs the SBC Champ. What a job HC Freeze did in his 1st ssn as ASU went unbeaten in conf play and has its best record since joining the FBS. Their only two losses were at Ill and VT, but they played well in both finishing the reg ssn 10-2. Freeze was named HC at Ole Miss, leaving ASU with a skeleton coaching crew for this gm. RB coach David Gunn was promoted to interim HC, while ASU reached out to alumni to fill their coord needs. ASU lost in their lone bowl appearance (New Orleans in ‘05) vs Southern Miss, 31-19. NI leads the all-time series 6-1 incl a 31-30 win in the last meeting in ‘96. NI is playing in its 7th all-time bowl (3-3). While they are in their 4th straight bowl, their will be led by their 3rd different HC in the bowls as Jerry Kill, who went 0-2, left prior to LY’s bowl and then LB Cch Matukewicz led them to a 40-17 blowout of Fresno St in the Humanitarian Bowl. This will be new HC Doeren’s 1st bowl as a HC but he did see a few as the DC at Wisky. The Huskies trailed Ohio 20-0 at half in the MAC Championship game but after losing their 2 previous MAC Champ gms in the final minute, kicked the GW FG as time expired to win 23-20. NI went 3-1 vs bowl teams. NI finished #10 in the NCAA in offense and my rankings have them a bit lower at #25. They certainly are capable of lighting up the scoreboard having reached 40+ pts 9x’s TY. ASU has topped 500 yds 4x’s this year. Both offenses prefer up tempo action and on avg they’re combining for 148 plays a gm. Expect some points and I’ll go with my computer here and take the Red Wolves to cap off one of their best seasons in school history.
PHIL’S FORECAST: ARKANSAS ST 37 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 34

Compass Bowl/FCS Champ/NFL Wildcard Forecasts!

Phil Steele — Sat, 07 Jan 2012 17:19:44 +0000

	FCS National Championship Pizza Hut Park Frisco, TX Saturday, January 7th @ 1:00 p.m.

#2 NORTH DAKOTA ST (13-1) VS #1 SAM HOUSTON ST (14-0)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s
NORTH DAKOTA ST	139	130	23	1.7
SAM HOUSTON ST	151	190	22	1.7
This is how the playoffs are supposed to work, with all 4 Top seeds playing in the semi-finals and the #1 & #2 seed playing for the Championship. This is just the third meeting between these teams. The series is tied with the home team winning both by 3. NDSU 41-38 in 2007 despite being outgained 495-414 and giving up a TD with :26 left as they scored their own TD with :07 left for the win. SHSU won 48-45 in 2009 with a 620-419 yd edge winning with a 24yd FG with :26 left. This meeting will be much closer to home for the Bearkats who are playing under 200 miles from home while the Bison must migrate over 1000 miles from the cold North and the comforts of the Fargo Dome, where they hosted all 3 of their playoff wins. Both teams defeated an FBS team this year with NDSU beating Minnesota 37-24 and SHSU beating New Mexico 48-45. Both teams faced Western Illinois. SHSU won 20-6 in the season opener with a 313-216 yd edge but that includes allowing a 92 yd TD pass late 4Q with a 20-0 lead. NDSU won 37-21 with a 363-292 yd edge but did lead 37-7 in the 3Q. The Bison are off a 35-7 win over Georgia Southern with a 451-333 yd edge as the Eagles were forced to abandon their running game after falling behind 20-7 and NDSU score their final TD with just :39 left. The Bearkats faced a Montana team that looked to be peaking in the playoffs with big wins over Central Arkansas (41-14) and Northern Iowa (48-10). SHSU won 31-28 with a 496-380 yd edge. They led 31-14 in the 3Q, before allowing Montana to make the comeback but after a stop, SHSU ran out the final 6 min driving to the UM 15 before taking a knee. NDSU is led by QB Brock Jenson, who is avg 172 ypg (68%) with a 13-3 ratio while rushing for 166 yds (2.5, 8 TD). They feature two RB’s in Sam Ojuri (1078, 6.1, 11 TD) and DJ McNorton (981, 5.1, 13 TD). While top WR Warren Holloway leads with 988 (13.2, 8 TD). NDSU defense is allowing just 13.2 ppg and 324 ypg including 3.6 ypc on the ground. SHSU is led by QB Brian Bell, who is avg 150 ypg (61.8%) with a 20-5 ratio while rushing for 274 (3.5, 6 TD). They also feature 2 RB’s in Tim Flanders (1560, 5.6, 22 TD) and Richard Sincere (965, 8.0, 9 TD). Sincere leads the team in rec yds with 449 (18.0, 4 TD), with Flanders adding 404 (14.4, 2 TD). While top WR Torrance Williams leads with 30 rec (397, 13.2, 3 TD) but also had 269 rush (14.9, 3 TD). SHSU defense is allowing 14.8 ppg and just 283 ypg including just 2.6 ypc on the ground.Both teams have had 3 weeks off and how well the Bison will enjoy the break from the cold in what should be almost 60 degree weather is yet to be seen. The Computer calls for NDSU to pull out a 1 pt despite being outgained 70+ yds. We will go with SHSU to remain the only undefeated team in the FCS.
PHIL’S FORECAST: SAM HOUSTON ST 24 NORTH DAKOTA ST 23

	COMPASS BOWL Saturday, January 7th @ 1:00 p.m. Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

SMU (7-5) VS PITTSBURGH (6-6)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
SMU	97	258	15	3.6	-	93.8
PITTSBURGH	134	168	24	1.3	••	100.4
SMU and Pitt have met 5 times (2-2-1), most recently back in the 1983 Cotton Bowl, a 7-3 Mustang win. Pitt also has familiarity with Legion Field as this is the 2nd str yr they are playing in the Compass (27-10 win over Kentucky LY). HC Jones is 5-3 in bowls and has guided SMU to their 3rd str postssn (1-1, 1st time S/’82-’84, pre-death penalty, matches schl’s best streak). Pitt struggled vs bowl tms TY going just 1-6 being outscored by 6 ppg and outgained by 33 ypg. SMU was 1-4 vs bowl tms being outscored 36-14 and outgained 466-333. Pitt went just 1-3 away from home TY while SMU also struggled going 2-4. Pitt has 10 Sr st’rs among 16 upperclassmen. SMU has 12 among their 18 upperclassmen. A better offense, better defense, better special teams and having played a tougher sked, would have made this an easy choice prior to Pitt HC Graham leaving for Arizona St. Now Pitt must deal with yet another interim HC but did play well in this very bowl gm LY under the same circumstances. SMU players have gone thru the gamut as well of hearing Jones’ name come up for numerous jobs (ironically one was ASt) and are they now wondering if they are playing for a lame duck HC as well? I will stick with my initial pick with the Panthers getting another Compass Bowl win.
PHIL’S FORECAST: PITTSBURGH 24 SMU 20

NFL WILD CARD PLAYOFFS

	AFC WILDCARD SATURDAY, JANUARY 7TH 4:30 PM ET NBC

CINCINNATI (9-7) VS HOUSTON (10-6)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
CINCINNATI	87	188	18	1.9	#10	97.6
HOUSTON	158	223	22	1.1	#11	97.2
The Texans defeated the Bengals 20-19 just 4 wks ago to win the AFC South. CIN had a 16-3 lead at the end of the 1H being held to 3 FG’s on 3 trips inside the HOU31. The Texans crushed them in the 2H with 16-6 FD and 202-81 yd edges with Yates leading an 80/13pl yd drive for the GW TD. HOU is 5-3 at home TY with a +103 yd margin (-2 TO’s) for a 22-6 avg score. CIN finished 5-3 on the road TY for a -16 yd difference (+2 TO’s) for a 24-21 avg score. The AFC North/South squared off TY with CIN going 5-4 vs common foes for a +14 ypg margin (+2 TO’s) with a 23-22 avg scoring deficit. HOU was +85 ypg on avg (+5 TO’s) for a 24-15 avg score going 6-3 in those. While this is HOU’s 1st playoff game ever CIN doesn’t have much of an edge as they haven’t won a playoff game since Jan 1991. Reliant Stadium will be incredibly loud here and Dalton’s only other dome game was vs STL. Despite resting key players LW (& Yates leaving early) HOU put in a good game vs TEN and got their confidence back. Yates is expected to start vs a team HOU beat on the road. CIN has promise for 2012 but the Texans are deeper on both sides of the ball with a big intangible edge and are my pick to win it.
PHIL’S FORECAST: HOUSTON 24 CINCINNATI 14

	NFC WILDCARD SATURDAY JANUARY 7TH 8:00 PM ET NBC

DETROIT (10-6) VS NEW ORLEANS (13-3)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
DETROIT	57	370	23	1.3	#27	99.5
NEW ORLEANS	158	413	40	1.7	#6	97.5
NO beat the Lions 31-17 on SNF just 5 weeks ago as Brees hit for 342 yds (72%) with 3 TD’s and a 9.5 ypa vs a Lions defense short 3 starters (DT Suh, FS Delmas, CB Houston). The Saints went into the half with a 304-184 yd edge with a 24-7 lead and held DET to 0-6 on 3rd downs on in the 2H. Stafford had 408 yds passing (70%) with a 1-1 ratio but DET was still playing undisciplined ball and was hit with 11 penalties. Common foes are plentiful with the NFC North and South squaring off TY with NO being +106 ypg (-6 TO’s) with a 33-22 avg score for a 7-2 mark. DET went 5-4 vs the same foes with a +37 yd difference (-2 TO’s) for a 28-27 score deficit. This is DET’s 3rd road game in 4 wks and 1st playoff game since 1999 for a franchise that hasn’t won a postseason game since Jan 1992. DET went 5-3 on the road TY with a +34 yd mark (-2 TO’s) and a 29-28 avg score. Incl playoffs since 2008, NO has been lethal at home vs a non-div foe with a 19-3 mark winning 8 straight by a 37-17 avg score with a +169 yd differential. After the CAR game WR Colston noted “mentally and emotionally, we’re as prepared as a team can be.” DET has to be commended for making the playoffs but getting shredded by Matt Flynn LW has to be a big concern for a defense which now faces the record-setting Brees. NO has better depth, a huge crowd edge and much more experience in this situation. Who dat say gonna beat dem Saints? Not the Lions!
PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ORLEANS 38 DETROIT 24

Week 17 NFL Forecasts!

Phil Steele — Sun, 01 Jan 2012 17:00:51 +0000

HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS: 8-5 LW 128-67 66% TY

WASHINGTON AT PHILADELPHIA
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
WASHINGTON	90	133	13	2.6	#25
PHILADELPHIA	158	233	29	1.4	#28
PHI won the 1st meeting 20-13 with a 422-287 yd edge holding WAS to just 5 FD’s and 75 yds in the 1H. Grossman was benched after a brutal 3Q’s with 143 yds (39%) and 4 int’s as the OL was in shambles. Starting with that first PHI game WAS dropped 6 straight avg just 56 ypg rushing and 13 ppg. Since then WAS has beaten SEA and the NYG on the road and while they did lose all 3 home games to the NYJ, NE and MIN they outgained and outFD’d all 3. The Eagles are trying to reach the .500 mark finishing the season with a 4th straight win and they done so in dominating fashion while outgaining those foes by an avg of 348-202. With both teams playing their best ball down the stretch I’ll call for the Eagles to get the win with some positive momentum going into the offseason.
PHIL’S FORECAST: PHILADELPHIA 31 WASHINGTON 27

TAMPA BAY AT ATLANTA
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
TAMPA BAY	71	170	9	3.1	#16
ATLANTA	163	201	34	0.5	#18
The Bucs beat the Falcons 16-13 back in Wk 3. TB wore ATL down on a hot (89 degrees) and humid (94%) day using their run game (36 att’s 3.2) to batter the Falcons defense and control the clock (+11:44). The Falcons are off the final MNF game of the year vs NO where they were destroyed in a playoff type atmosphere with Saints QB Brees setting the passing yardage mark. ATL is clearly the more talented team, playing off a loss at home wanting positive momentum into the playoffs. TB has dropped 9 straight. ATL will be playing next week and this is the type of game that a HC will be happy with a positive 1H and his players staying healthy. However, the Falcons have also only beaten 2 teams by over 14 points (IND and JAX) which will make this game closer than what many expect.
PHIL’S FORECAST: ATLANTA 27 TAMPA BAY 17

SAN FRANCISCO AT ST LOUIS
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
SAN FRANCISCO	164	158	24	0.5	#1
ST LOUIS	97	190	5	1.4	#30
SF slammed STL 26-0 just 4 wks ago. The 49ers owned a 389-157 yd edge and controlled the game with a 144-31 edge on the ground. It could have been much worse as they settled for 4 FG’s on 3 drives inside the STL red zone and only 1 of STL 12 drives lasted longer than 5 plays. SF know’s that their potential SB run will have to go through Lambeau and Harbaugh will demand a positive road performance after losing to BAL and ARZ and beating SEA by only 2 pts in their L/3 away from home. STL’s offensive woes have gone to a new level having gotten shutout for a 2nd time in 4 games while avg only 10 ppg the L/8. SF is the NFL’s #1 rush D allowing 3.4 ypc and will be hungry after allowing their first 100 yd rusher this season. By stopping Jackson and the run game Clemens will have another tough week after going 9-24-91 and throwing for 91 yds (38%) against a similar defense in PIT LW.
PHIL’S FORECAST: SAN FRANCISCO 26 ST LOUIS 9

CHICAGO AT MINNESOTA
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
CHICAGO	116	158	23	1.9	#3
MINNESOTA	138	210	26	2.1	#19
The Bears have won 4 straight by a 36-17 avg score including a 39-10 win earlier TY. Both are limping to the finish with CHI having dropped 5 straight and an offense that has avg’d just 216 ypg the L/3 prior to GB. With the Hanie experiment a complete failure they turned to McCown who was teaching a few weeks ago and he was impressive vs GB’s #31D making his first start since 2007 (21pts, 19-28-242). MIN lost RB Peterson (ACL) and QB Ponder (concussion) on B2B plays LW against the Redskins but behind Webb the Vikings scored 3 straight TD drives (75/3, 73/6 and 72/6pl). With these teams playing for pride, the Vikings with either QB have the edge as Webb made the final 2 starts LY and was an impressive 37-58 (64%) incl getting a win against a playoff bound Eagles squad. Players can surprise when there’s not recent film on them but now the Vikings will be prepared for this “new” QB.
PHIL’S FORECAST: MINNESOTA 20 CHICAGO 17

DETROIT AT GREEN BAY
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
DETROIT	100	365	26	1.7	#27
GREEN BAY	114	315	34	1.3	#12
“There’s going to come a time when we don’t celebrate going to the playoffs or getting into the playoffs, but that’s not going to be tonight,” said DET HC Jim Schwartz. The Lions dominating performance put them in the playoffs for the first time since 1999. That may sound similar to what the 49ers (cliched playoffs 1st time S/’02) said several weeks ago and then they went into Arizona losing getting outgained 325-233. GB however has the #1 seed wrapped up and the early indication is that starting skill players will rest. The difference is GB has a bye and no momentum would be gained while the Lions will want to stay in playoff mode. Check out the surprising year to date rankings as GB is #5 and #31 (off and def) while DET is #7 and #20. The Lions held GB to their 2nd lowest yd output in their earlier meeting (349 yds) so they certainly wont be intimidated by this offense especially if Flynn is under center. Teams that have 13 or more wins in the season finale usually have everything wrapped up so I’ll take the Lions here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: DETROIT 27 GREEN BAY 21

CAROLINA AT NEW ORLEANS
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
CAROLINA	138	233	26	0.6	#32
NEW ORLEANS	147	390	38	1.3	#9
NO earlier TY needing a 89/13pl drive with a 6yd TD pass with :50 left for the win. LW they knocked off ATL on MNF and they are still alive for a 1st round bye and can finish off a perfect 8-0 season at home. Saints HC Payton has always allowed Brees to play for records and LW it was quite a scene to see Brees set the mark. On the flipside you have to admire the Panthers led by Newton who has gotten stronger down the stretch leading his team to 4 wins the L/5 gms throwing for 60% comp and an 8-2 ratio. CAR has the #6 and #15 units (+6 TO’s) the L4W. That has been vs TB twice with a beat up Freeman with a young and worn out defense, were beaten by ATL and upset HOU without DC Phillips who just earned their 1st playoff berth in franchise history. NO has the #1 and #23 units (+2 TO’s) prior to MNF outgaining their foes by 129 ypg which is tops in the NFL. NO’s short week is countered by the fact they don’t have to travel and CAR is off a misleading final (+4 TO’s). I’ll call for the Saints by 10.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ORLEANS 30 CAROLINA 20

TENNESSEE AT HOUSTON
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
TENNESSEE	68	220	14	1.8	#4
HOUSTON	175	213	19	1.0	#13
The Texans are off a 19-16 loss to IND on Thursday and they’ll certainly benefit from the extra time as Kubiak gave them 3 days off afterwards. HOU also dropped B2B games earlier TY and also faced this same Titans squad mauling them 41-7 with a 518-148 yd edge. Now HOU has to refocus with a positive performance going into their first ever playoff appearance and will have a healthier #1 rec TE Daniels (1 rec LW). The Texans may also get WR Johnson back and they are 4-1 when he starts with the only loss to NO which they outgained 473-454. TEN’s offense “exploded” LW topping 400 yds for only the 2nd time this season as they faced a JAX secondary without 2 starters getting 207 yds (51%) on 6 passes with many broken coverages. HOU also should have DC Phillips here to give a defense that hasn’t looked that good the L2W a sorely needed confidence boost. Both teams stats over the L4W cancel each other out (TEN #9 and #18 -2 TO’s vs HOU #16 and #9 -4 TO’s) and while the Texans are locked into the #3 seed they aren’t going to want to go into the postseason with a 3 game losing streak in the mirror.
PHIL’S FORECAST: HOUSTON 23 TENNESSEE 20

BALTIMORE AT CINCINNATI
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
BALTIMORE	111	203	20	2.0	#17
CINCINNATI	109	203	21	1.9	#14
The Ravens have 2 won straight including 31-24 earlier TY. In that earlier meeting, BAL allowed a season-high 490 yds and held CIN on a 4th and goal from their 7 after blowing a 31-14 lead. LW these two had almost identical games with BAL leading CLE 17-0 at HT while CIN led ARZ 20-0. Both also allowed their opp’s within a score as the Ravens were outscored 14-3 and the Bengals 16-3 in the 2H. BAL needs a win to secure a 1st RD bye while CIN needs a win to get into the postseason. BAL is only +14 ypg (-6 TO’s) on the road vs +85 ypg (+4 TO’s) at home. Flacco has been rather avg on the road TY avg 237 ypg (56%) with a 9-6 ratio with 3 of those TD’s being vs STL back in Wk 3. CIN’s #6 rush defense is only allowing 97 ypg (3.7) and they get a break with WR Boldin (MCL sprain) sitting out as BAL’s WR/TE’s are avg at best (4 rec’s 13.0 LW vs CLE) and not known for their speed. I’ll call for CIN in an upset in a lower scoring game as BAL’s inconsistency catches up to them.
PHIL’S FORECAST: CINCINNATI 17 BALTIMORE 14

PITTSBURGH AT CLEVELAND
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
PITTSBURGH	149	205	16	0.6	#15
CLEVELAND	113	147	10	3.0	#26
Roethlisberger will play about 25-30 snaps here while CLE is expected to close the season with Wallace (187 ypg 58% 2-1 L2W) here and they are expected to also feature a lot of younger players here to get film on them for the offseason. PIT dominated the 2H with a 255-104 yd edge as CLE couldn’t stop a QB with 1 bad leg. PIT held a similarly talented Rams team to just 8 FD and 107 yds in the 2H as they pitched a shutout. They have a 390-247 yd edge TY vs foes with a losing record with 21-9 avg score. The difference here is that the defense is stinging from their effort in the 1st matchup as well as the susp LB Harrison. CLE has been held to under 300 yds in 9 games TY (262 ypg). They also have the #28 and #23 units (+1 TO’s) the L4W vs PIT’s #10 and #2 units (-4 TO’s). There will likely be a very strong contingent of Steelers fans here to cheer on their team and I’ll call for the defense to head up a 2 TD victory here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: PITTSBURGH 24 CLEVELAND 10

INDIANAPOLIS AT JACKSONVILLE
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
INDIANAPOLIS	109	185	22	2.1	#31
JACKSONVILLE	133	195	21	2.8	#29
Jags won 17-3 in the 1st meeting TY. IND was heading into its bye while JAX was coming off theirs. Both offenses looked like they were on byes as 17 of the 24 combined drives ended with a punt, TO or were SOD. Jones-Drew had 24.6% of the total yards by both teams combined and Gabbert could only muster 118 yds passing (67%) with a 1-1 ratio. IND has won their L2 games behind Orlovsky. In his 4 starts the Colts have been outgained by 46 ypg (+1 TO) with a 21-20 ppg deficit. Prior to him, IND was outgained by 109 ypg (-11 TO’s) while being outscored 30-14. The Jaguars have an NFL high 29 players on IR having been badly mauled in the secondary, at WR and on the DL. Since the 1st IND game the Jags have given up 233 ypg (66%) with a 9-6 ratio but 3 int came vs Freeman (bruised shoulder) who shouldn’t have been playing. Gabbert has only passed for 685 more yards than what Jones-Drew has rushed for so far and his 5.4 ypa is horrid esp since Jones-Drew has a 4.5 ypc. A victory here is a big blow for the Colts future but their 2 wins have been at home and I’ll call for the Jags by a FG thanks to Jones-Drew.
PHIL’S FORECAST: JACKSONVILLE 20 INDIANAPOLIS 17

NY JETS AT MIAMI
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
NY JETS	88	170	17	1.3	#5
MIAMI	135	140	25	1.7	#2
The Jets won the first meeting 24-6 on MNF. MIA had their chances as they forced the Jets to go 3 and out on their 1st 4 drives (14 yds total). The Dolphins were inside the Jets15 3 times in their 1st 5 drives but settled for 2 FG’s and Revis returned an int 100 yds for a TD. The Jets had a 282-115 yd edge over their final 8 drives with 17 unanswered pts. The Jets are off a hugely embarrassing loss as Sanchez had 3 TO’s (2 int, 1 fmbl) though OC Schottenheimer didn’t do him any favors by having him air it out a whopping 59 times. Sanchez has struggled to process his reads and the lack of a power run game (#22 3.8 ypc) has helped kill a pretty impressive effort by the #7 defense which has a 14-17 ratio TY (3 TD in 2nd NE and 2nd BUF each). Injury was added to insult for MIA as they were dismantled in the 2H LW being outFD’d 21-8 and outgained 293-126 also losing All-Pro LT Long (torn biceps) for a good chunk of the offseason. MIA has dealt with poor management by the front office TY now have to deal with an angry Jets defense wondering what happened to their season.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NY JETS 27 MIAMI 20

BUFFALO AT NEW ENGLAND
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
BUFFALO	103	268	23	2.2	#21
NEW ENGLAND	146	300	39	1.2	#11
The Bills snapped a 15 game losing streak to NE with a 34-31 win earlier TY. BUF scored 17 pts in the 4Q with drives of 95, 71 and 70 yds as NE blew a 21-0 lead in the 2Q. Brady has avg’d 244 ypg (66%) vs BUF with a 42-14 ratio but his 4 int here gave BUF 27 pts. He’s now facing the #15 pass defense that had allowed a 17-1 ratio over the 7 games before Tebow’s 4 int. BUF is also in 30th sacks (24) and 9 of those sacks came vs WAS after their bye week. Injuries have compounded the fact that teams figured out the Bills intermediate passing game and since Nov, Fitzpatrick has avg’d 223 ypg (57%) with a 8-12 ratio with a 6.1 ypa. NE has a top 10 special teams unit (BUF bottom 10) which sets up quality field position making opposing teams go the distance (accounts #32 defense) and forcing them into mistakes (+14 TO’s 3rd TY) and BUF simply doesn’t have the firepower anymore to compete.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 31 BUFFALO 17

SAN DIEGO AT OAKLAND
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
SAN DIEGO	118	268	26	1.1	#24
OAKLAND	120	270	24	1.6	#7
The Raiders have fared well vs SD with 3 upsets (29-19 avg score) physically wearing down the Chargers with a 184 (4.5) to 62 (3.9) rushing edge. Rivers has been able to move the ball vs OAK in the L3 games (328 ypg 5 TD’s), but the Raiders physical style of play has given him problems as he’s only hit 57% while turning the ball over 5 times himself. Despite a tough season SD once again has a 4000 yd QB, 1000 yd rusher and 1000 yd receiver on hand and are 18-3 in Dec under Turner. Over the L4W they have the #5 and #12 units (+3 TO’s) vs the Raiders #12 and #29 units (-5 TO’s). OAK hoped Palmer and McFadden would lead them into the playoffs but the 2 haven’t started a game together TY. OAK beat SD, MIN and CHI with Bush (112 ypg 4.0) pounding the ball but then the WR’s/CB’s got beat up. While OAK is loaded with 1st RD DC’s on defense they have given up 409 ypg vs foes w/a winning record with 126 ypg rush (5.1) and a 15-5 ratio from the #25 pass defense. SD is eliminated from the playoffs and the only thing let for them is to put forth one last effort to keep Turner in 2012 but it wont be enough.
PHIL’S FORECAST: OAKLAND 27 SAN DIEGO 24

KANSAS CITY AT DENVER
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
KANSAS CITY	131	165	18	1.8	#22
DENVER	183	153	14	2.1	#8
The Chiefs get a nice edge with Orton who was with DEN for the 1st matchup TY and has intimate knowledge of the system leading the Chiefs into Mile High Stadium. The Broncos won the earlier meeting TY 17-10. DEN had a 313-258 yd edge despite Tebow completing just 2 passes (69 yds) with one being a 56 yd TD pass. DEN ran the ball 55 times (4.4) which allowed them to control the clock (+7:16) and wear down the Chiefs defense. Orton has a real shot at being the #1 for KC in 2012 after avg 300 ypg (66%) with a 1-2 ratio the L2W. He has helped beat GB and lost to OAK in OT with two 49 yd FG’s being blocked at the end of the halves. Orton has led 2 of KC’s 3 400 yd games (IND other) TY but he now faces a defense that knows how to defend him from practice. DEN has struggled the L2W due to Tebow turning the ball over by having to throw the ball and some bad special teams play. Tebow now returns home where the Broncos have rushed for 147 ypg (5.1) and now take on the #23 rush defense allowing 126 ypg (4.1). Look for a huge crowd edge to help out the DEN defense as they push for a playoff berth.
PHIL’S FORECAST: DENVER 20 KANSAS CITY 17

SEATTLE AT ARIZONA
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
SEATTLE	112	168	25	1.1	#10
ARIZONA	110	228	20	2.6	#6
Carroll is 3-0 vs ARZ with a 24-13 avg score beating them 13-10 back in Wk 3. ARZ had a 324-261 yd edge as SEA had 8 punts and an Int on their 12 drives. ARZ went after QB Jackson holding him to 171 yds (58%) with 4 sacks and 12 hits. Kolb didn’t have much success either with 252 yds (64%) with a 1-2 ratio and 3 sacks as SEA held Fitzgerald to 64 yds (12.8). ARZ does have the health edge here as SEA is down 3 starting OL, both starting WR’s and their top 2 CB’s. Carroll has done a good job of coaching up its depth as rookie UFA Baldwin leads the team in rec’s and yds (48 15.6). SEA’s #10 defense has quietly been very solid TY as while they don’t get a lot of sacks (19th) they are only allowing 3.8 rushing and have a quality 17-21 ratio (Jets 14-17 ratio). SEA has played well on the road games with a 23-15 avg score L/5 gms and no RB has been better over the past 8 games than Lynch who has rushed for 107 ypg (4.5) and 9 TD’s. ARZ has a nice sked edge with this being their 4th HG in 5 Wks but have given up 134 ypg rush (4.4) in Skelton’s 7 starts TY. Both teams are fighting for an 8 win season which would be a huge confidence boost going into the offseason and I’ll call for the home team by a FG here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: ARIZONA 27 SEATTLE 24

Hawaii Bowl Forecast and Week 16 Pro Selections!

Phil Steele — Sat, 24 Dec 2011 17:02:46 +0000

	HAWAII BOWL Saturday, December 24th @ 8:00 p.m. Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

NEVADA (7-5) VS SOUTHERN MISS (11-2)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
NEVADA	208	260	25	2.7	-	91.8
SOUTHERN MISS	177	265	31	2.7	….	89.5
SM is 2-0 vs UN winning a pair of gms in ‘97 and ‘98. The Pack is making its 12th bowl appearance (4-7) and is 2-6 in bowls under Ault. UN is playing in a bowl for a 6th consec ssn (2-4) but did end a 4 gm bowl losing streak LY. The Pack is playing in Honolulu for the 4th straight yr (at UH twice, ‘09 Hawaii Bowl) but the trip to paradise has been anything but as they’ve lost their L/7 gms to UH here (incl LY’s only loss of the ssn) and they were embarrassed by SMU 45-10 in the ‘09 Hawaii Bowl. UN did beat UCF 49-48 in OT in the ‘05 Hawaii Bowl. Normally the CUSA Champ would play in the Liberty Bowl but due to contract issues and bowl obligations, SM will be making its first appearance in the Hawaii Bowl. SM is bowling for a 10th str ssn (1-2 under Fedora who is coaching his last game here) but unlike the L/2Y is off a win. They pulled the upset over Houston (49-28) to earn their 1st CUSA Champ. SM started 1-1 with a conf loss but played as well as any tm in the country for the next 8 wks (8-0 avg win by 21 ppg +122 ypg) and finished the reg ssn with a school record 11 wins (11-2). I think Southern Miss clearly has the better personnel but the Pack will be motivated after recent poor bowl performances. I do like the fact that Fedora is coaching here and I’ll call for the Eagles to notch their 12th win in another Christmas Eve shootout.
PHIL’S FORECAST: SOUTHERN MISS 37 NEVADA 30

HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS: 6-6 LW 120-62 66% TY

OAKLAND AT KANSAS CITY
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
OAKLAND	142	145	14	2.0	#11
KANSAS CITY	156	198	21	1.2	#19
Remarkably all four AFC West teams are still in the playoff hunt with KC having pulled a stunner in Romeo Crennel’s 1st game as interim HC. It was Orton’s 2nd time TY seeing the Packers & he hit for 299 yds (74%) & no TO’s. The Raiders are playing for their 2nd straight non-losing season after 7 straight years of double digit losses. OAK has true revenge here as they were slammed 28-0 by KC at home prior to their bye. OAK had 6 ints with Palmer taking the field in the 2H for 116 yds (38%) in what was basically his preseason debut. KC is 0-4 in their final home game. They have only won the yardage battle in 3 games TY being outgained by 79 ypg in the other 10. While DC Crennel has a good scouting report on Palmer from his time with CLE the Raiders #6 rush offense get the edge vs a KC team that has given up 146 ypg (4.3) at home prior to GB. The Raiders have big edges in the trenches as they are 5th in sks allowed (22) vs a KC team that is 27th in sks by (23) and OAK is also 4th in sks by (37). However I really like what I saw from the Chiefs last week and I think Orton gives them some stability at QB as they remain in the playoff hunt.
PHIL’S FORECAST: KANSAS CITY 21 OAKLAND 20

DENVER AT BUFFALO
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
DENVER	208	123	26	1.8	#4
BUFFALO	125	238	24	3.2	#23
This is a good matchup for the Broncos with their #1 rush attack (156 ypg 4.7) vs the Bills #25 rush defense allowing 131 ypg (4.7). In Tebow’s 5 road starts they have only been outgained by 11 ypg, have set the tempo by outrushing foes 217 (5.0) to 128 (4.4) and are +4 TO’s with a 25-19 avg score. The Bills defense is starting to show its shortcomings as since the Toronto game they have given up a 16-2 ratio and only pulled in 5 sacks prior to MIA (#31 sks TY). Despite their warts the DEN OL had started 13 straight games and 14 of their 34 sks allowed were in Tebows first 2 starts with 6 sks given up in the 6 games prior to NE. Injuries at WR and the large amount of short/intermediate passes have seen Fitzpatricks numbers drop to 212 ypg (56%) with a 6-9 ratio since WAS with a 5.79 ypa. DEN’s #16 pass defense is a concern as they’ve given up a 22-9 ratio but BUF lacks their explosive ability from the start of the season and DEN is also a cold weather team. While the Broncos are off a huge gm vs NE and travelling across country it’s tough to go against Tebow and Co in any situation as the Broncos still control their destiny in the AFC West with the Chiefs on deck at home.
PHIL’S FORECAST: DENVER 24 BUFFALO 17

JACKSONVILLE AT TENNESSEE
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
JACKSONVILLE	126	163	16	1.7	#29
TENNESSEE	120	240	26	2.1	#5
The Jaguars won the earlier meeting TY 16-14 as TEN was fielding a new HC and a QB working with a new offense with a starting RB that had sat out most of training camp. JAX dominated the TOP by 19:16 with a 73-49 play advantage on offense but only had a 31 yd edge in the game. TEN’s first 7 drives resulted in 6 punts and a missed FG. The tables have turned as while TEN still remotely in the hunt for a playoff spot they are overall drastically healthier than JAX who had 21 players on IR prior to the TB game. Hasselbeck will get the start but the TEN OL has only allowed 19 sks (2nd) and JAX is only 22nd in sks by. The Jaguars will have the extra rest edge after facing ATL last Thursday but they have been outgained 304-233 on the road TY with an 18-11 avg score. Gabbert only has 3 games with 200 yds passing TY with one on the road (CLE) and is avg 135 ypg (50%) with a 4-4 ratio with a 4.84 ypa vs a 4.4 ypc for Jones-Drew. Regardless of which QB starts for TEN they have a better supporting cast on both sides of the ball.
PHIL’S FORECAST: TENNESSEE 24 JACKSONVILLE 14

ARIZONA AT CINCINNATI
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
ARIZONA	81	198	20	2.0	#6
CINCINNATI	116	245	24	1.0	#15
ARZ is 1-5 on the road in Dec under Whiz losing by a 31-17 avg score (-89 ypg). ARZ has only played 5 games vs a foe with a winning record (PIT, BAL, DAL, SF) and are 2-3 despite being outgained by 86 ypg (-7 TO’s). They now travel to a cold weather site and while Bengals fans aren’t giving much support (just 41,202 vs HOU) the Cardinals will have to contend with the #7 D. CIN is allowing just 100 ypg (3.7) rushing and minus the STL game, Wells is avg 65 ypg (3.8) TY. CIN also has the edge in pass protection on both sides of the ball allowing just 21 sks (3rd) despite a rookie QB and the Broncos are 6th in sks by (36) with ARZ having allowed 43 sks (30th) prior to LW. ARZ is off an OT win to CLE where they rallied down 10 pts & vs the 1H of the season they are one of the most improved teams in the NFL despite their QB play. CIN also has a good handle on ARZ’s Steeler inspired defense as well. My gives CIN an 83 yd edge here and they are still playing for either a playoff shot with BAL on deck and a rare winning season with a rookie QB at the helm and I’ll call for Benson and the Bengals defense to carry the day.
PHIL’S FORECAST: CINCINNATI 27 ARIZONA 14

MIAMI AT NEW ENGLAND
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
MIAMI	138	223	20	2.0	#3
NEW ENGLAND	77	375	33	1.0	#10
NE opened 2011 with a 38-24 win on MNF that sent the first half of the Dolphins season into a tailspin. Halfway thru the 4Q NE had a 514-275 yd edge with a 31-17 lead en route to 622 yds in the game. Brady had a staggering 517 yds (67%) with a 4-1 ratio with 99 yds coming on a Welker TD when the defender slipped. NE continues to be in the hunt for a playoff bye despite a defense that has given up 400+ yds in 8 of 13 games TY (462 ypg in those). While Brady’s stellar play is one huge reason, the defense has forced 25 takeaways after forcing 38 LY and that’s with a beat up secondary. MIA should have Moore back but even after getting a win at cold weather BUF LW with an interim HC you have to wonder how much the Dolphins will have left in the tank with obvious changes coming in 2012.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 31 MIAMI 17

CLEVELAND AT BALTIMORE
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
CLEVELAND	83	180	12	1.3	#27
BALTIMORE	164	238	20	1.0	#17
BAL improved to 7-0 with a 24-10 win just 20 days ago vs the Browns. Rice ran for a career high 204 yds (7.0) in the game as the Ravens had a 448-233 yd edge. 8 of CLE’s 12 drives ended in punts and only their final drive with the game out of reach went longer than 50 yds. McCoy is 0-8 (26-13 avg score) in AFC North games avg 206 ypg (54%) with a 9-13 ratio being sacked 23 times. Flacco has modest stats vs CLE avg 199 ypg (64%) with an 8-3 ratio with a single game of 300 yds passing. He hasn’t had to do much due to Rice and the Ravens defense which has held 6 teams to under 250 yds offense (5-1) TY. CLE is in its 3rd str rd gm and the Browns are 0-4 in that role S/’00 getting outscored by an avg of 29-6 BAL has a road game vs a more dangerous CIN team on deck.
PHIL’S FORECAST: BALTIMORE 24 CLEVELAND 14

NY GIANTS AT NY JETS
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
NY GIANTS	68	275	24	2.2	#21
NY JETS	144	213	31	1.9	#7
This is the much anticipated Battle of New York with the Giants having 4 consec wins (31-22 avg score) but Ryan hasn’t been a part of it yet. NYG are in the middle of a 4-gm stretch where they play 3 div rivals but need every win they can get while the Jets are playing their 4th str NDIV foe. Sanchez hasn’t impressed vs teams with a top 10 pass rush going 2-3 avg 248 ypg (55%) with a 5-4 ratio and just a 6.36 ypa with 13 sacks. Injuries to his RB’s/WR’s/OL ave offset the fact that Manning has only faced 3 top 10 defenses TY (WAS, SF, DAL) and he’s avg’d 316 ypg (62%) with an 11-6 ratio (2 ints off tips) with a very impressive 8.57 ypa at home TY. Both tms need a win for their playoff hopes and despite coming off a brutal 6 gm stretch before WAS the NYG under Coughlin tend to play their best when their backs are against the wall and get the win here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NY GIANTS 27 NY JETS 20

MINNESOTA AT WASHINGTON
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
MINNESOTA	130	158	20	2.1	#20
WASHINGTON	105	238	31	2.4	#25
The Vikings beat the Redskins 17-13 LY in Leslie Frazier’s debut as a HC. Peterson missed most of the game with an ankle sprain but MIN still outrushed WAS 137 (3.6) to 29 (2.2). After WAS opening drive went 83 yds for a TD their next 8 drives combined for 70 yds with 5 punts, 1 int, 1 FG and end of half. The Vikings are playing for Peterson to get his 5th 1000 yd rushing season & to get some quality snaps for Ponder for 2012. They haven’t made an Int since Wk 5 (25-0 ratio!!!!) & are allowing 29.9 ppg on the road TY. WAS is avg 349 ypg & 20.8 ppg in Grossman’s 10 full games which would avg out to the #14 offense despite one of the ugliest OL’s in the NFL. You have to wonder where the Vikings are physically coming off a stretch of playing 6 str playoff caliber teams. Both tms are building for the future and the only thing at stake here is draft positioning come April.
PHIL’S FORECAST: WASHINGTON 24 MINNESOTA 20

TAMPA BAY AT CAROLINA
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
TAMPA BAY	107	195	19	3.4	#14
CAROLINA	190	230	35	1.5	#32
The Panthers devastated the Bucs 38-19 who were without QB Freeman (shoulder bruise) just 20 days ago. CAR had a 366-223 yd edge mid-4Q with a 38-12 lead before they let TB go 65/8pl in garbage time. CAR was in full press to boost Newton’s Rookie of the Year chances as he had 4 TD’s with 3 on the ground. CAR had a 163 (4.2) to 78 (2.9) rush edge with 45 of TB’s yards coming off #2 QB Josh Johnson. While CAR’s defensive front 7 has been wrecked by injuries, the offense has had only 1 player (RT Otah) land on IR and his injury history LY had CAR prepared. Aside from Shockey (ribs) missing 1 game they have had their most complete set of players all year. Meanwhile TB’s defense is beat up esp on the DL and their LB’s are still young. On off the WR’s have been disappointing and beaten up Freeman has taken a step back. The winner of this game will most likely finish out of the Div basement which would be a huge step for a CAR tm that came into the ssn with low expectations.
PHIL’S FORECAST: CAROLINA 34 TAMPA BAY 17

ST LOUIS AT PITTSBURGH
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
ST LOUIS	77	158	3	3.1	#30
PITTSBURGH	176	228	26	0.9	#16
This is the Rams 3rd road game in 4 Wks where they have gone 1-5. Minus the NO upset they have been outgained 351-242 (-5 TO’s) in gms vs winning foes with a 30-7 avg score. The Rams were forced to use Kellen Clemens who was signed off the street the week prior vs CIN. He did quite well actually with 229 yds (69%) w/a TD despite not knowing the playbook. Now he travels vs a PIT team that is playing for seeding in the AFC. While STL secondary has seen 10 CB’s sent to IR TY foes are running at will on the Rams who gave up 166 ypg (4.7). PIT have outgained foes 9 straight prior to SF by a 377-276 margin but with Roethlisberger hurting this may not be the blowout many would have thought prior to last week
PHIL’S FORECAST: PITTSBURGH 27 ST LOUIS 13

SAN DIEGO AT DETROIT
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
SAN DIEGO	122	255	31	1.5	#24
DETROIT	90	353	24	1.3	#26
SD is 17-2 SU/14-5 ATS in Dec with a 31-16 avg score under Turner which is when they play their best football. SD is 1-6 vs foes with a winning record (-11 ypg) due to -10 TO’s with a 29-23 scoring deficit. Rivers has had to deal with a piecemeal OL and hasn’t known who his skill players are on a weekly basis. Still, vs those winning foes he’s avg’d a decent 276 ypg (58%) with a 13-11 ratio (19 sks). Yes, there is a concern vs a DET team with playoff need and their stout front 7 vs the SD OL but the Chargers skill players will be getting healthier. Stafford has a tough matchup vs SD’s #7 pass defense that has a 22-14 ratio TY vs 18-16 for all of LY. SD has veterans in all of the key places, are playing to keep Turner, get into the playoffs and I’ll take their experience in big games vs a young and overly aggressive Lions team.
PHIL’S FORECAST: SAN DIEGO 31 DETROIT 24

SAN FRANCISCO AT SEATTLE
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
SAN FRANCISCO	112	170	19	1.8	#1
SEATTLE	91	210	21	1.9	#9
The home team improved to 5-0 when SF beat SEA 33-17 in the season opener. SF had a 19-17 lead after a 55 yd TD pass by Jackson with 3:56 left. Ginn then returned the KO 102 yds for a TD, forced SEA to go 3&out then Ginn returned a punt 55 yds to put it out of reach. SF had a 128-37 yd edge as SEA had 5 punts and 2 TO’s in the 1H. Harbaugh is 3-1 vs Carroll and while this is personal for both coaches, SF has big edges in terms of talent and health all over the field. SEA does have the situational edge at home with SF off a tough physical game vs PIT on MNF. SF is +61 yds and an astounding +20 TO’s vs foes with a losing record but expect the Seahawks and their crowd to give maximum effort.
PHIL’S FORECAST: SAN FRANCISCO 20 SEATTLE 17

PHILADELPHIA AT DALLAS
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
PHILADELPHIA	128	205	26	2.0	#28
DALLAS	122	253	24	1.8	#22
PHI blasted DAL 34-7 off their bye week. PHI had a 495-267 yd edge and dominated the clock (+24:18) on the ground with a 239 (6.3) to 85 (8.5) yd edge. DAL was held to 5 punts and an int on their first 6 drives while PHI had 4 TD’s and 2 FG’s. While PHI has been on the wrong side of the TO battle in 7 games TY they have won the yardage battle in 10 games with 7 games over 400 yds. PHI keeps lingering around the NFC playoff chase & destroyed the Jets 45-19 beating them with a balanced gameplan (33 runs/23 pass). DAL has extra rest off LW’s Thur Nite game vs TB but they no longer have RB Murray (brkn ankle) to balance out the offense. DAL Garrett who has struggled with in game decisions and clock management. While this is a key div game for them they have the rematch vs the Giants on deck and I’ll call for the home team by 2 FG’s here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: DALLAS 28 PHILADELPHIA 21

Week 15 Pro Selections!

Phil Steele — Sat, 17 Dec 2011 18:57:07 +0000

HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS: 10-3 LW 114-56 67% TY

WASHINGTON AT NY GIANTS
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
WASHINGTON	105	243	24	2.5	#23
NY GIANTS	93	368	32	1.3	#22
The Redskins upset the Giants 28-14 in the season opener. Grossman hit for 305 yds (62%) with 2 TD’s as while the yardage was even WAS held the Giants to 1-10 on 3D. While I’ll never call the Redskins a letdown spot the Giants are off NO, GB and a SNF game vs DAL and they have the Battle of New York on deck. Both teams have battled attrition especially on the OL and DL which has led to the Skins losing 8 of their L/9 while NY dropped 4 straight prior to DAL. Several factors have me calling for the Skins to keep it close as their offense has adjusted to the injuries and over the last month they’ve avg’d 380 ypg which is their best 4 game stretch TY. The Giants D has been mauled of late allowing 432 ypg but to be fair they have faced the leagues top 4 offenses in the L/5 games. The concern is NY’s pass rush that got 26 sks the first 7 games but has just 7 in the L/5 and WAS’s 3 wins have come when they allowed 1 or fewer sacks. The Giants get another much needed win for a playoff run but it will be tough.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NY GIANTS 20 WASHINGTON 17

GREEN BAY AT KANSAS CITY
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
GREEN BAY	112	195	30	1.3	#14
KANSAS CITY	141	210	14	2.1	#25
GB celebrated their NFC North title with a 30 pt win over OAK which came at a price as #1 WR Jennings (knee) status is out for the rest of the regular season. KC was throttled LW being held to 3 pts, 1 FD and 4 yds at HT LW vs the Jets. While Rodgers is avg 323 ypg (69%) with a 20-2 ratio on the road TY, their largest MOV on the road has been by 12 pts and they have only outgained road teams by 8 ypg. GB is playing a bend but don’t break defense that has allowed 8 games of 400+ yds which has forced 32 takeaways already TY (32 LY). KC will rely on their ground game to try and control the tempo here. While the offensive problems are well noted (6 straight of 10 pts or less) the D has allowed 318 ypg the L/5 which includes 431 yds to NE. Aside from SS Berry, KC has only had 2 games missed by a starter and have a respectable pass defense (22-17 ratio). The Packers get the win to stay undefeated by it will be tighter than what some predict.
PHIL’S FORECAST: GREEN BAY 21 KANSAS CITY 10

NEW ORLEANS AT MINNESOTA
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
NEW ORLEANS	100	318	36	1.1	#9
MINNESOTA	145	280	24	1.6	#16
This is the 4th meeting in as many years incl playoffs. NO won the 2010 season opener 14-9 with a 308-253 yd edge. Brees had a decent day (237, 75%, 1 TD) vs a much more talented and healthier secondary. The Saints offense avg’d 28 FD/gm on the road the first 3 but after HC Payton was inj’d and he stopped calling plays they avg’d just 19 FD/gm the next 3. Look for a return to normalcy as Payton started calling plays in the 2H of LW’s win vs TEN where Brees went 17-20 for 188 yds and 2 TD’s. MIN’s defensive stats are very misleading as over the L5W they’ve only allowed 322 ypg but 33 ppg and they’ve trailed by 17+ at HT in 4 of the games with teams playing it conservative in the 2H. LW the Vikings trailed 28-7 and yet another comeback failed on the last play which wears on a team that is 2-11 on the season. Ponder was taken out of the game (115 yds 52% 2-3) for his own safety and the Vikings making it close was due to the Lions not being ready for QB Webb (109 yds rush 15.6). The Saints will not let up as they are now tied with SF for the #2 seed (SF holds tie-beaker) and look for the offense to continue to try to get Brees the NFL passing record.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ORLEANS 34 MINNESOTA 13

SEATTLE AT CHICAGO
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
SEATTLE	85	183	14	2.2	#13
CHICAGO	122	200	16	1.8	#1
Despite their QB/RB issues this is a good situation for the Bears. SEA is off their 1st MNF game S/’07 vs a beat up DIV foe and have to travel on a short week. In the 1st meeting LY CHI lost 23-20 as the Seahawks were coming off their bye week. CHI won the rematch 35-24 in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score. CHI had a 35-10 lead with 4:40 left (448-147 yd edge) when they relaxed and allowed SEA to score TD’s on drives of 74 and 55 yds. SEA comes in down 3 starting OL vs a CHI defense that is 17th with 29 sacks on the year. CHI held KC to 3 and DEN to 13 in the past 2 weeks and had a chance to win in OT if not for a fumble. Despite his error, Barber had 109 yds rush (4.0) and Hanie stayed within the system (115 yds 63%) and didn’t turn the ball over. SEA will try to run the ball but CHI is only allowing 80 ypg rush (3.5) the L8. SEA has the #26 and #20 units the L4W (+4 TO’s) vs CHI #25, #11 (-1 TO’s) the same span. I’ll take the home team here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: CHICAGO 24 SEATTLE 10

MIAMI AT BUFFALO
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
MIAMI	135	155	25	0.8	#3
BUFFALO	75	253	16	1.5	#21
MIA is 5-2 vs the Bills including a 35-8 win TY. BUF took the opening drive 70/9pl settling for a FG. Their next 7 drives went for 82 total yards ending in 1 FG, 2 Ints, 4 punts being one blocked. MIA scored 21 pts off BUF miscues and held them to 0 for 12 on 3rd Dns. MIA lost their first 7 games by 15 ppg. The offense got turned around and they averaged 28 ppg the next 5 winning 4 of them before QB Moore getting knocked out LW they totaled just 204 yds and 11 FD’s in a 26-10 loss to PHI. BUF was the polar opposite getting off to a 5-2 start with an off avg 30 ppg before losing their next 6 avg just 12.8 ppg. Despite MIA being on the road they still may have the scheduling edge having been home for 2 straight and 4 of the L/5 while BUF is off a cross country beating and is playing only their 2nd game at home in the L/6. I would lean with the Dolphins if Moore is ok but would back off if Losman is making his first start since 2008 when he played for these Bills.
PHIL’S FORECAST: BUFFALO 20 MIAMI 19

CAROLINA AT HOUSTON
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
CAROLINA	108	205	19	2.1	#32
HOUSTON	165	253	32	2.2	#15
The Texans have a big situational edge here with the Panthers in their 4th road game in 5 Wks. HOU has a great matchup edge with Foster and Tate (1777 rush yds combined 4.6) vs the Panthers rush defense (129 ypg 4.5) CAR lost both starting rookie DT’s prior to ATL LW and tried to overload the box but Ryan burned them passing (320 yds, 4-0 ratio). Newton’s size makes him tough to bring down but he continues to takes hits especially after running the ball. The length of the NFL season may be catching up to him as in his L/4 games (minus the winless Colts) he’s thrown for only 55% comp with a 3-7 ratio while throwing for 63% comp and a 10-7 ratio in the others. Yates should have plenty of time to manage the game here behind an OL that has started every game together TY and despite getting sacked 5 times against CIN that can be explained by him making his first NFL road start. Look for HOU to keep it simple and focus on their strengths for the win.
PHIL’S FORECAST: HOUSTON 27 CAROLINA 13

TENNESSEE AT INDIANAPOLIS
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
TENNESSEE	129	185	23	1.1	#6
INDIANAPOLIS	114	225	13	1.8	#31
Even with Manning at the helm, the Titans have more than held their own vs the Colts. TEN has a great edge with their OL (13 of 14 starts together) vs the depleted Colts defense. TEN has only allowed more than 2 sacks in one game TY (@PIT) while IND is avg only 1.6 sk/gm on the season. The OL is also gelling as when Chris Johnson tops 100+ yards rushing (4x TY) it opens the entire offense up to play action and the Titans have avg’d 27 ppg going 4-0. That’s a favorable matchup against the Colts who are among the league’s worst rushing D (145 ypg ) and allowed the highest pass comp (72%!). I also like the no-quit character that 1st year HC Munchak brings to this squad as they are 4-0 playing the week after a loss. That attitude and knowing they got outgained in the first meeting is what you need to deal with the pressure of not wanting to be the Colts first “W” of the year.
PHIL’S FORECAST: TENNESSEE 24 INDIANAPOLIS 10

CINCINNATI AT ST LOUIS
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
CINCINNATI	151	193	22	1.5	#18
ST LOUIS	99	205	17	1.8	#29
This game features one of the most improved teams with CIN against one of the most disappointing teams with STL. While they are the road team the Bengals get the situational edge after a home game vs HOU with a home game vs ARZ on deck. STL is off LW’s MNF game at SEA and can’t be looking forward to their road game vs PIT on deck. None of the opening day starters on the Rams OL were expected to be in the same spot vs SEA with 3 on IR, 1 benched and FA RG Harvey Dahl having had to play RT. STL at home TY if the NO game is omitted they have been outgained by 150 ypg (0 TO’s surprisingly) with a 26-11 avg score. They have also been outrushed 199-88 (5.7-4.1) in those 5 losses. While CIN hasn’t proven to be an elite team TY they are 6-0 vs a foe w/a losing record for a 27-18 avg score thanks to a defense holding them to 92 ypg rush (3.7). I’ll call for CIN by 2TD’s with the STL QB a ? mark.
PHIL’S FORECAST: CINCINNATI 28 ST LOUIS 14

DETROIT AT OAKLAND
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
DETROIT	124	178	27	1.3	#30
OAKLAND	157	225	25	2.6	#8
Both teams have playoff need. The Lions get a boost with the return of Suh from suspension. That combined with having faced Rodgers, Brees and having a big lead vs MIN has the Lions allowing 403 ypg the L4W. This is only going to be the 3rd home start for Palmer TY (317 ypg 56% 3-4 ratio at home) who admitted that he was starting to get worn down due to having to catch up with the system. The Raiders were mauled by the Packers LW down 46-7 and outgained 388-245 with Rodgers having exited late in the 3rd Qtr. DET had held MIN to 213 yds and 14 pts before Ponder went out and they simply weren’t prepared for Webb which is forgivable. I’ll call for DET by a FG in a higher scoring game.
PHIL’S FORECAST: DETROIT 31 OAKLAND 28

NEW ENGLAND AT DENVER
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
NEW ENGLAND	104	330	29	1.7	#11
DENVER	163	250	23	1.9	#5
This was a hotly contested game by the networks for flex scheduling. In 11 starts Tebow has had six 4th Qtr/OT wins including a 13-10 win LW vs CHI. A closer look at the sked shows that since the DET thumping they’ve been dealt a very favorable hand. Vs OAK, Palmer was getting his 1st start coming off the bye, Cassel hurt his throwing hand getting pulled after just 93 yds before the final drive, the Jets were off a SNF vs NE and had to travel on Thursday. They took advantage of a beat up SD team who missed 2 long FG’s, got MIN without RB Peterson and capitalized on a critical Ponder mistake to set up the game winning FG and got CHI at home with Hanie and without Forte. Brady is avg 336 ypg (66%) with an 18-5 ratio with just 6 sks on the road TY. NE did allow 463 yds LW vs WAS and big plays again hurt them (all’d 7 for 22+ yds) but that is certainly not DEN’s strength. Expect NE to jump out to a big lead early to force Tebow out of the option and pass the ball vs a unit with a respectable 21-18 ratio.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 38 DENVER 24

NY JETS AT PHILADELPHIA
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
NY JETS	122	170	23	1.7	#7
PHILADELPHIA	130	223	24	2.2	#26
The Eagles are 1-5 at home TY with their only win coming after the bye when Reid’s game plans are at their best. They are also just 2-7 vs NDIV foes TY as despite a 390-353 yd edge they have been killed by poor ball protection (-11 TO’s) losing by a 26-23 avg score. PHI did get Vick back LW and the rust of his layoff was apparent as he had 208 yds (50%) with a 1-1 ratio. PHI had 3 takeaways which they converted into 17 pts. Sanchez has taken a lot of heat TY as he still struggles to go thru his reads but he’s also not getting a lot of help from the #20 ground game. Age has fully caught up to Tomlinson who has just 564 yds from scrimmage (6.7) and Shonn Greene has under performed with just 67 ypg (4.2) and a pair 100 yd rushing efforts TY. The Jets lack speed on the perimeter which is a break for the Eagles secondary that has given up a 23-12 ratio TY. PHI has a big speed edge and the Jets have a big hole with SS Leonhard (knee) hitting the IR. I’m not impressed with the Jets win over a KC team which has scored 10 or less in 6 straight now vs a PHI team with loads of big play potential that will enjoy the spoiler role.
PHIL’S FORECAST: PHILADELPHIA 24 NY JETS 17

CLEVELAND AT ARIZONA
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
CLEVELAND	98	203	11	0.5	#27
ARIZONA	164	213	20	1.1	#4
This is the 3rd road game in a 4 week span for the Browns and the only NDIV game in their final 6 games of the year. ARZ clearly has the situational edge at home for the 3rd straight with a road trip vs CIN on deck. CLE is 1-4 on the road TY where they have been outgained by 89 ypg (-2 TO’s). QB Wallace will play here and the mental state of the Browns is also uncertain after they went all out vs PIT but failed to beat a QB with 1 leg. ARZ knocked off SF with Skelton at the helm (282 yds 68% 3-2) and have a huge confidence and special teams edge here. ARZ’s #24 pass defense has been much better from BAL on allowing 238 ypg (57%) with a solid 4-5 ratio. ARZ also has a big edge with my #4 spec tms vs CLE’s #27. I’ll call for ARZ by 5 as the injury report here will be key.
PHIL’S FORECAST: ARIZONA 21 CLEVELAND 16

» nfl

Super Bowl XLVI Forecast

NY GIANTS (12-7) VS NEW ENGLAND (15-3)

PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 31 NY GIANTS 27

AFC/NFC Championship Game Forecasts!

BALTIMORE (13-4) AT NEW ENGLAND (14-3)

PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 31 BALTIMORE 21

NY GIANTS (11-7) AT SAN FRANCISCO (14-3)

PHIL’S FORECAST: NY GIANTS 20 SAN FRANCISCO 17

East-West Shrine Game

87th East-West Shrine Game January 21st, 2012 at 4 p.m. EST Florida Citrus Bowl Orlando, Florida

Bowl News and Notes Plus Playoff Recaps

NFL Divisional Playoff Forecasts!

NEW ORLEANS (14-3) AT SAN FRANCISCO (13-3)

PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ORLEANS 30 SAN FRANCISCO 20

DENVER (9-8) AT NEW ENGLAND (13-3)

PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 34 DENVER 17

HOUSTON (11-6) AT BALTIMORE (12-4)

PHIL’S FORECAST: BALTIMORE 21 HOUSTON 13

NY GIANTS (10-7) AT GREEN BAY (15-1)

PHIL’S FORECAST: GREEN BAY 30 NY GIANTS 21

GoDaddy Bowl and NFL Wildcard Forecasts

ATLANTA (10-6) VS NY GIANTS (9-7)

PHIL’S FORECAST: NY GIANTS 27 ATLANTA 20

PITTSBURGH (12-4) VS DENVER (8-8)

PHIL’S FORECAST: PITTSBURGH 20 DENVER 13

ARKANSAS ST (10-2) VS NORTHERN ILLINOIS (10-3)

PHIL’S FORECAST: ARKANSAS ST 37 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 34

Compass Bowl/FCS Champ/NFL Wildcard Forecasts!

#2 NORTH DAKOTA ST (13-1) VS #1 SAM HOUSTON ST (14-0)

PHIL’S FORECAST: SAM HOUSTON ST 24 NORTH DAKOTA ST 23

SMU (7-5) VS PITTSBURGH (6-6)

PHIL’S FORECAST: PITTSBURGH 24 SMU 20

CINCINNATI (9-7) VS HOUSTON (10-6)

PHIL’S FORECAST: HOUSTON 24 CINCINNATI 14

DETROIT (10-6) VS NEW ORLEANS (13-3)

PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ORLEANS 38 DETROIT 24

Week 17 NFL Forecasts!

HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS: 8-5 LW 128-67 66% TY

WASHINGTON AT PHILADELPHIA

PHIL’S FORECAST: PHILADELPHIA 31 WASHINGTON 27

TAMPA BAY AT ATLANTA

PHIL’S FORECAST: ATLANTA 27 TAMPA BAY 17

SAN FRANCISCO AT ST LOUIS

PHIL’S FORECAST: SAN FRANCISCO 26 ST LOUIS 9

CHICAGO AT MINNESOTA

PHIL’S FORECAST: MINNESOTA 20 CHICAGO 17

DETROIT AT GREEN BAY

PHIL’S FORECAST: DETROIT 27 GREEN BAY 21

CAROLINA AT NEW ORLEANS

PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ORLEANS 30 CAROLINA 20

TENNESSEE AT HOUSTON

PHIL’S FORECAST: HOUSTON 23 TENNESSEE 20

BALTIMORE AT CINCINNATI

PHIL’S FORECAST: CINCINNATI 17 BALTIMORE 14

PITTSBURGH AT CLEVELAND

PHIL’S FORECAST: PITTSBURGH 24 CLEVELAND 10

INDIANAPOLIS AT JACKSONVILLE

PHIL’S FORECAST: JACKSONVILLE 20 INDIANAPOLIS 17

NY JETS AT MIAMI

PHIL’S FORECAST: NY JETS 27 MIAMI 20

BUFFALO AT NEW ENGLAND

PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 31 BUFFALO 17

SAN DIEGO AT OAKLAND

PHIL’S FORECAST: OAKLAND 27 SAN DIEGO 24

KANSAS CITY AT DENVER

PHIL’S FORECAST: DENVER 20 KANSAS CITY 17

SEATTLE AT ARIZONA

PHIL’S FORECAST: ARIZONA 27 SEATTLE 24

Hawaii Bowl Forecast and Week 16 Pro Selections!

NEVADA (7-5) VS SOUTHERN MISS (11-2)

PHIL’S FORECAST: SOUTHERN MISS 37 NEVADA 30

HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS: 6-6 LW 120-62 66% TY

OAKLAND AT KANSAS CITY

PHIL’S FORECAST: KANSAS CITY 21 OAKLAND 20

DENVER AT BUFFALO

PHIL’S FORECAST: DENVER 24 BUFFALO 17

JACKSONVILLE AT TENNESSEE

PHIL’S FORECAST: TENNESSEE 24 JACKSONVILLE 14

ARIZONA AT CINCINNATI

87th East-West Shrine Game
January 21st, 2012 at 4 p.m. EST
Florida Citrus Bowl
Orlando, Florida