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Hawaii Bowl Forecast and Week 16 Pro Selections!

December 24th, 2011 No comments

HAWAII BOWL
Saturday, December 24th @ 8:00 p.m.
Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

NEVADA (7-5) VS SOUTHERN MISS (11-2)
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
NEVADA 208
260
25
2.7
-
 91.8
SOUTHERN MISS
177
265
31
2.7
 …. 89.5
SM is 2-0 vs UN winning a pair of gms in ‘97 and ‘98. The Pack is making its 12th bowl appearance (4-7) and is 2-6 in bowls under Ault. UN is playing in a bowl for a 6th consec ssn (2-4) but did end a 4 gm bowl losing streak LY. The Pack is playing in Honolulu for the 4th straight yr (at UH twice, ‘09 Hawaii Bowl) but the trip to paradise has been anything but as they’ve lost their L/7 gms to UH here (incl LY’s only loss of the ssn) and they were embarrassed by SMU 45-10 in the ‘09 Hawaii Bowl. UN did beat UCF 49-48 in OT in the ‘05 Hawaii Bowl. Normally the CUSA Champ would play in the Liberty Bowl but due to contract issues and bowl obligations, SM will be making its first appearance in the Hawaii Bowl. SM is bowling for a 10th str ssn (1-2 under Fedora who is coaching his last game here) but unlike the L/2Y is off a win. They pulled the upset over Houston (49-28) to earn their 1st CUSA Champ. SM started 1-1 with a conf loss but played as well as any tm in the country for the next 8 wks (8-0 avg win by 21 ppg +122 ypg) and finished the reg ssn with a school record 11 wins (11-2). I think Southern Miss clearly has the better personnel but the Pack will be motivated after recent poor bowl performances. I do like the fact that Fedora is coaching here and I’ll call for the Eagles to notch their 12th win in another Christmas Eve shootout.

PHIL’S FORECAST: SOUTHERN MISS 37 NEVADA 30

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Week 15 Pro Selections!

December 17th, 2011 1 comment
HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS: 10-3 LW 114-56 67% TY

 

WASHINGTON AT NY GIANTS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
WASHINGTON 105
243
24
2.5
#23
NY GIANTS 93
368
32
1.3
#22
The Redskins upset the Giants 28-14 in the season opener. Grossman hit for 305 yds (62%) with 2 TD’s as while the yardage was even WAS held the Giants to 1-10 on 3D. While I’ll never call the Redskins a letdown spot the Giants are off NO, GB and a SNF game vs DAL and they have the Battle of New York on deck. Both teams have battled attrition especially on the OL and DL which has led to the Skins losing 8 of their L/9 while NY dropped 4 straight prior to DAL. Several factors have me calling for the Skins to keep it close as their offense has adjusted to the injuries and over the last month they’ve avg’d 380 ypg which is their best 4 game stretch TY. The Giants D has been mauled of late allowing 432 ypg but to be fair they have faced the leagues top 4 offenses in the L/5 games. The concern is NY’s pass rush that got 26 sks the first 7 games but has just 7 in the L/5 and WAS’s 3 wins have come when they allowed 1 or fewer sacks. The Giants get another much needed win for a playoff run but it will be tough.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NY GIANTS 20 WASHINGTON 17

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Week 14 Pro Selections

December 11th, 2011 1 comment

HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS: 9-4 LW 95-51 65% TY

 

INDIANAPOLIS AT BALTIMORE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
INDIANAPOLIS 66
175
9
2.0
#31
BALTIMORE 162
235
32
0.3
#17
Including playoffs the Colts are 7-0 vs the Ravens with a 24-9 avg score. IND finally switched to Orlovsky LW who hit for 89 yds (71%) when NE was up 31-3. NE had 24-8 FD and 345-106 yd edges before giving up 299 yds and 3 TD in the 4Q. IND also replaced DC Larry Coyer and for good reason as they are giving up 144 ypg rushing (4.1). Their #21 pass defense is allowing 243 ypg (72%) with a 21-5 ratio and their 109.3 QBR is worse than HOU’s 100.5 QBR LY. Prior to LW IND only had 1 game decided by 7 or less (TB on MNF). IND does have a bit of a situational edge as BAL has a road game vs SD on Thursday on deck. BAL did get a “needed win vs an inferior foe” and while they clearly have the talent edges here and I’ll call for them by 2 TD’s.

PHIL’S FORECAST: BALTIMORE 31 INDIANAPOLIS 17 Read more…
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Week 13 Pro Selections

December 3rd, 2011 1 comment

HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS: 8-3 LW 86-47 65% TY

TENNESSEE AT BUFFALO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TENNESSEE 108
205
26
1.9
#12
BUFFALO 125
258
23
2.1
#21
The Bills return to Ralph Wilson Stadium for only a second time in their last 7 games. Buffalo has now lost 4 straight after giving up a 77/12pl TD drive with 1:06 LW and now has the psychological disadvantage of having a losing record for the first time TY. Attrition can be blamed on them avg just 285 ypg & 12.5 ppg the L4W as they are #2 in the NFL with 13 players lost to the IR. The Titans continue to live and die by the running game and the 4 times this season when they’ve totalled 90 or more rush yards they’ve gone 4-0 incl Chris Johnson topping 130 yards 2 of the L3W having a ssn high 190 (8.3) vs Tampa. They now face a Bills squad that has allowed 124 ypg and 4.5 ypc rushing on the ssn. The Titans also will get a boost knowing they trail HOU by 2 games with the Texans down to a 3rd string QB and a meeting with them in the season finale. The Titans losses TY have come vs JAX, PIT, HOU, CIN and ATL who came into LW as the NFL’s #3, #2 #1 and #6 overall D while the Falcons were the leagues #2 rushD. Buffalo’s #24 D and #22 rush D come nowhere close.

PHIL’S FORECAST: TENNESSEE 27 BUFFALO 23

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Week 12 Pro Selections

November 26th, 2011 No comments

HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS: 9-2 LW 87-46 65% TY

 

ARIZONA AT ST LOUIS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ARIZONA 108
188
18
1.7
#2
ST LOUIS 128
230
15
1.6
#29
The Cardinals were outplayed by the Rams in Bradford’s return from a high ankle sprain getting outgained 400-262 in the 1st matchup TY. Special teams blunders cost STL the game as they had a 42 yd FG blocked on the final play of reg and gave up a 99 yd PR for TD after the 1st drive of OT to lose. This is ARZ’s 4th road game in 5 Wks and they are off their rivalry game vs SF with DAL on deck. The Skelton offense caught up to ARZ LW as they were lucky to be down 9-0 at the half. SF had 12-2 FD and 249-52 yd edges but on 6 drives to the ARZ 31 settled for 3 FG’s missing another 3. This exposed ARZ’s 2 wins for what they were: defense and special teams victories. ARZ has been held to under 100 yds rushing in 5 of their L6 games while giving up an avg of 142 ypg (4.3) in their L6. STL was held to 185 yds LW as they played without both OT’s due to injury after benching their #1 Ctr the week before. SEA’s front 7 stacked up vs Jackson who was held to 42 yds (2.8) and 13 of their first 14 drives ended as a punt or TO. I’ll go with the home team vs an ARZ team that came back to earth LW.

PHIL’S FORECAST: ST LOUIS 23 ARIZONA 17 Read more…
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Week 11 Pro Selections

November 19th, 2011 3 comments

HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS: 8-5 LW 78-44 64% TY

 

TENNESSEE AT ALTANATA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TENNESSEE 82
193
14
1.0
#15
ATLANTA 149
238
21
0.6
#20
This is the 2nd of 3 straight NFC South games for the Titans. TEN is off a big win vs a young CAR team off a bye and ATL off a home loss to NO in OT. ATL has good stat edges here with the #7 and #7 units (+2 TO’s) the last 4 weeks and have held foes to 271 yds and 16 ppg in their L3 games. TEN has the #26 and #27 units (0 TO’s) L4W and have allowed 362 ypg on the road. TEN has been outgained in 3 of 4 games and are taking the #19 pass rush on the road (19 sks). While ATL may only have 16 sks they’ve forced enough pressure for a respectable 12-10 ratio and have held foes to 91 ypg rushing (3.9). QB Ryan (22-4 at home) admitted the offense started off slow due to forcing 1st RD DC Julio Jones into the system resulting in his missing 2 games w/a hamstring injury. ATL has avg’d 149 ypg rushing (4.3) and 27.0 ppg the L4W going back to a power run scheme. TEN has a beat up defense that’s started 7 different LB’s TY and ATL is strong off a loss.

PHIL’S FORECAST: ATLANTA 27  TENNESSEE 17 Read more…
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Week 9 Pro Selections

November 5th, 2011 No comments

HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS: 6-4 LW 64-33 66% TY

ATLANTA AT INDIANAPOLIS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ATLANTA 151
190
29
0.0
#21
INDIANAPOLIS 124
150
11
1.8
#31
The Falcons are off their bye and have a huge home game vs NO on deck. ATL has played the #13 sked to this point in the year which accounts for the perception they’ve underachieved TY with the #17 and #20 units (+1 TO’s). Defenses have managed to slow WR White (39 rec 10.9) who has been bothered by a knee injury and 1st RD DC Jones (25 rec 14.3) has missed 2 games w/a hamstring injury. The good news is that they face an IND team giving up 261 ypg (77%) with an 11-0 ratio the L4W with just 1 QB held to under a 95 QBR so far TY. Bill Polian placed the blame firmly on the defense as the DL is missing its 2 best DT’s (Foster, Nevis) on IR. While Mathis/Freeney have 8 sacks combined the Colts have 12 as a team (18th). While Painter is not the big problem (just 4 ints TY) the Colts lack the quick strike capability here to help a defense that can’t get off the field on 3rd Dns (#32, 49.1%). IND is simply overmatched here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: ATLANTA 31 INDIANAPOLIS 20 Read more…
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Guest Editorial: Andrew Luck and the NFL

October 27th, 2011 No comments

Shockingly, we are nearing the midpoint of the 2011-2012 NFL season, which means that division races are starting to take shape, and contenders are emerging. If you have been missing out on the fantastic action thus far this season, you may want to check out tv by direct offerings, so that you can tune in to what has truly been an entertaining spectacle. This season has been full of surprising teams, phenomenal performances, and tight games, and the action should only get better as we near the playoffs. Interestingly enough, however, one of the season biggest storylines may end up revolving around a college superstar. Indeed, with two teams in particular ‚the Indianapolis Colts and the Miami Dolphins, off to absolutely miserable starts this year, there may actually be something of a race to underachieve in order to pick up Stanford’s extremely highly touted quarterback, Andrew Luck. Read more…

Categories: nfl, NFL Draft Tags: , , , , , , ,

Week 7 Pro Selections

October 21st, 2011 No comments

HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS: 49-27 64%

CHICAGO AT TAMPA BAY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CHICAGO 113
223
24
1.4
#2
TAMPA BAY 118
243
17
1.6
#15
This is the 5th year in a row for the London game. TB has a big edge in planning as while they lost to NE 35-7 in Morris’ rookie season in 2009. It was their 3rd road game in 4 Wks and Morris entered into the game with a defeatist attitude after NE had blown out TEN 59-0 prior. Both teams are beat up injury wise with TB expected to be without RB Blount (MCL) and DT McCoy (high ankle sprain) here. TB comes in off a tight physical game vs NO where they converted 4 TO’s into 10 pts. While they gave up 453 yds they held NO to 2 FG’s and an int on 4 drives inside their 20. CHI is off B2B primetime games and their level of interest is uncertain. Cutler has been sacked 70 times since Martz took over and has been behind 4 diff OL’s in 5 weeks prior to LW. The key to this game will be if TB can control Forte who is playing at an MVP level with 785 total yds (7.0) or 49% of the Bears total offense prior to MIN. I’ll call for CHI by a FG.

PHIL’S FORECAST: CHICAGO 17 TAMPA BAY 14 Read more…
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Week 6 Pro Selections!

October 16th, 2011 1 comment

HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS: 41-24 63% TY

ST LOUIS AT GREEN BAY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ST LOUIS 80
200
12
2.2
#24
GREEN BAY 139
358
37
2.9
#27
The Rams come out of the bye in very poor shape due to injuries. Both of STL’s starting CB’s are on IR and they lost their projected nickel CB prior to camp. LY they had the #19 pass defense (best in the NFC West) w/a 21-14 TD/int ratio and a 6.8 ypa and TY’s #11pass defense with only 1 secondary starter from 2010 has a tough matchup here. At this point STL has struggled to run OC McDaniels Patriots offense (outscored 79-16 1H TY) due to OL problems (1 sack every 8.4 pass att’s), a bad WR unit depleted by injuries (lost WR Amendola 90 rec 8.2 w/ Bradford) and RB Jackson (hamstring) getting hurt. Bradford’s 5.6 ypa in a vertical offense is worse than LY’s 6.0 ypa as a rookie in a West Coast system. STL is getting GB at a great time though after 3 road games in 4 Wks with ATL on SNF and MIN on SNF on deck. Look for McDaniels to channel the offense thru a healthy Steven Jackson who has avg’d 132 total ypg (5.0) after a bye in his career to take the pressure off the defense against a Packer team due for a lull. In the end though the Packers are the best team in the NFL and they get the road win by 10 to move to 6-0.

PHIL’S FORECAST: GREEN BAY 27 ST LOUIS 17 Read more…
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