Remember when Oklahoma won the National Title in 2000? Not a single OU starter lost a single start due to injury! My research has shown that teams that benefited from very few injuries, in this case 6 or less, usually have a weaker season the next year.

The bottom line is, teams that have suffered a lot of injuries the previous year will generally have a better year the next season. A lot of backups were forced to play during the injury-riddled year, gaining valuable experience and the team figures to not be so injury-prone the next year.

In a study over the last 7 years, my research shows that if a team had 32 or more starts lost to injury the prior season, they improved or had the same record the next year on 56 out of 67 occasions for an 83.5% success rate. How about teams that are really banged up? Well from 2001-2005 12 teams went through seasons of having 40 or more combined starts lost and ALL 12 had the same or better record the next season. It surprises me that 17 teams met that criteria in 2006-’07 but only 7 had a stronger record the next year and 9 had a weaker record.

In 2008, Utah was at the top of the chart with 51 starts lost to injury and they went from 9-4 to 13-0 and #2 in the country! Last year was another solid year as 9 teams had 35 or more starts lost to injury in ‘09 and 8 of the 9 improved or had the same record (88%!). Here are the teams that suffered 32 or more starts lost to injury last year: Read more…

Since my magazine went to press in early May there have been three significant changes in college football and three of the most popular questions asked of me on facebook and twitter concern North Carolina, Ohio St and Wisconsin.

I will address these three teams and my updated outlooks on each team in today’s blog. First, I want to say that many magazines and publications specifically websites/writers when predicting the conferences this upcoming season have two advantages over my publication and the other three publications that go to press in May (Athlon, Lindy’s, Sporting News). First, when these writers make their predictions in July/August they are reading the material/information from the already published magazines and have our predictions right in their hands. All of the countless hours we spend coming up with our picks and forecasts are now there at their fingertips to go off of. Second, they also have the advantage of having the latest news/rosters/transfers and happenings. Let’s face it a lot can happen in a 3-month period in college football especially with recent history.

For example, last year I was blind-sided with both USC and North Carolina as the NCAA hit both teams hard after my magazine was sent to press. USC was my pick to win the Pac-10 last year before scholarships were taken away, players transferred and a bowl ban was set in place. I also had North Carolina picked much higher than other publications because they had the most talented defense in the country only to have nearly a dozen players suspended for much of the season. Because I had both these teams picked higher than my competitors and with a few surprise victories by some teams I though less highly of, I did not finish 2010 as the most accurate magazine for the season (over 13-years still #1). Read more…

The college football season is fast approaching and in today’s blog I will give you a sneak peak at some of the early marquee college football non-conference games and how I think they will shake out as of right now. Also included is your current voting tallies for each of these games.

Remember if you visit the homepage right now, you can get a head start on voting in the Non-Conference Poll with all the non-conference games. To see where you rank against other voters, as soon as your vote is entered in, you will see the % stacked with or against you. In the next day or two the four remaining non-BCS conferences will be added on the front page. The Non-Conference Poll will run until Sunday, Aug 29th. On Monday the 30th, look for the Weekly Polls to start. There are games every day Thursday September 2nd thru Monday September 6th as the first week of the season looks to kick off with a bang! Weekly prizes will be awarded throughout the season. Read more…

About a year ago I created a facebook fan page. Since football is my area of expertise I sometimes am behind in the latest technology. However, I learned very quickly that it was easier and quicker for me to answer your questions on Facebook than our previous “Questions and Answers with Phil Steele” section developed on the website in 2008.

I usually check the Facebook Fan Site 3 or 4 times a day and if you have been keeping track I think we have had an overwhelmingly positive response as I love to answer as many questions as possible.

Nearly a month ago I sent out a message on Facebook and promised that when I reached 5,000 fans, I would hold what I call, a live one-hour “chat session” and answer all of your questions. During the “live chat” post your questions as you normally do on the Fan Page (in the what’s on your mind box) and I will answer them as quickly as possible. I will not be talking via the “chat” box as it would be impossible to respond to each question posted in an IM forum. Read more…

In the past several blogs I have been breaking down each factor that goes into my New and Improved Experience Chart and today I conclude the series by combining the five factors into my final ranking.

For more than 7 years I have listed an experience chart, which broke down the number of seniors, juniors, sophomores and freshmen each team had in the two deep and rated the teams experience level with a formula I devised. Last year I made the experience chart FIVE TIMES better.

We still do the exact same chart but now I just list the Senior starters, the rest of the seniors in the two deep and the points accumulated by using the system I used from 2002-‘08. In the chart listed below I have now included 4 other factors. The 2nd factor listed in the chart below is the % of lettermen returning. I devised a point system for this and explain it in depth on page 319 of this year’s magazine. Also added was the % of returning offensive yards. I took the total yards passing, rushing and receiving for each team and divided out the yardage of the returning players and the yards returning % listed below is that figure. I did the same with the total tackles from last year and the % of tackles returning. This gives us an idea of the defense’s experience. The final factor is the career starts returning for the offensive line. These players are not included in the stats but are a vital part of the offense. Read more…

It is finally confirmed, the truck will be here bright and early on Tuesday, June 1st! That signals the “official” start of the College Football season when you have your Phil Steele College Football Preview in your hands. Way back on Thursday May 13th we sent the final pages to the printer for this years 2010 Phil Steele’s College Football Preview. The magazine was printed, bound and then put into boxes and stacked onto pallets. And as I type this the pallets are being loaded onto trucks and will be heading off to the newsstands and book stores around the country and a shipment will be sent to our office. Read more…

In Today’s blog, I will continue releasing my Preseason All-Conference teams with the All-ACC and All-MAC teams.

The ACC is similar to the Pac 10 this year in that it is very balanced. I think the conference is the strongest it has been in years as I see the potential to have several top 25 teams this year. Read more…

Last Friday was the final date that underclassmen could declare for the 2010 NFL Draft. In total 51 players declared early and while some teams were hit hard by the early entries others were more lucky with several players deciding to return for another year. Today I will break which teams were hit hardest and which teams have the best returnees that turned down the NFL.

In Wednesday’s Blog I will give my analysis of whether or not it was a good move/bad move for each player. Read more…