Well here it is, my projected AP Top 10 for next year as of January 30, 2012! I will mention it now and I will mention it numerous times throughout today’s blog but this is not MY preseason Top 10 for next year, it is where I project the AP Top 10 to come out at the start of the season.

Most AP voters usually look at a couple of criteria when they evaluate a team for the upcoming season. First they look at the number of returning starters that the team has coming back particularly at the offensive skill positions. A team that returns its starting QB and a combination of its RB and WR’s is often times more highly thought of than a team that loses its starting QB but returns its entire offensive line. Similarly a team that returns most of its starters on offense but loses a lot of its defensive playmakers usually is more highly thought of than a team that returns a majority of its defensive starters but loses its skill position players on offense.

Another factor that is heavily weighted is the performance of the team in the bowl game, which undoubtedly is the lasting image of that team in the offseason. A team coming off a huge bowl win usually is more highly thought of than a team that is coming off a bowl loss regardless of what their schedule looks like for the upcoming season.

Using these criteria and a few more, I project the preseason AP Top 10 every year at the conclusion of the previous season, which in most cases is nearly 6 months in advance. Now as you all know, a lot can happen from January to August including injuries, suspensions, transfers, etc.

In 2009, my projected Top 10 for the AP Poll was #1 Florida, #2 Texas, #3 USC, #4 Oklahoma, #5 Alabama, #6 Virginia Tech, #7 LSU, #8 Oklahoma St, #9 Ohio St and #10 Mississippi. The actual AP Top 10 was #1 Florida, #2 Texas, #3 Oklahoma, #4 USC, #5 Alabama, #6 Ohio St, #7 Virginia Tech, #8 Mississippi and #9 was a tie between Oklahoma St/Penn St.

I nailed nine of the ten teams that appeared in the Preseason Top 10 with the only exception being LSU/Penn St and I may have had something to do with that. It’s interesting to note that of the main preseason magazines, only two had Penn St ranked in the Top 10 and I had them my #1 surprise team and ranked #5. Most had Penn St out of the Top 10. Perhaps since I had them rated so high in my magazine, it influenced a few voters across the country, bumping them into the Top 10.

In 2010 I projected the preseason AP Top 10 would be #1 Alabama, #2 Ohio St, #3 Boise St, #4 Oregon, #5 Texas, #6 TCU, #7 Iowa, #8 Florida, #9 Nebraska and #10 Virginia Tech.

The actual AP Top 10 was #1 Alabama, #2 Ohio St, #3 Boise St, #4 Florida, #5 Texas, #6 TCU, #7 Oklahoma, #8 Nebraska, #9 Iowa and #10 Virginia Tech.

For the second year in a row I nailed nine of the ten teams that appeared in the Preseason Top 10 with the only exception being Oregon/Oklahoma, which I can defend easily.

First, at the time I wrote my projection back in early February Duck QB Jeremiah Masoli was not yet suspended. With Masoli still in the fold at that point Oregon had 17 returning starters including RB LaMichael James and Masoli in the backfield. The Ducks clearly would have been a preseason Top 10 team and probably Top 5 had Masoli not been kicked off the team. Even without Masoli Oregon was still rated #11 in the preseason poll.

The team that I did not have in my projected AP Top 10 was Oklahoma (#7) and if you have purchased the 2010 magazine or listened to one of my radio shows across the country you know I thought very highly of the Sooners as I had them ranked #1. Like Penn St in 2009 perhaps since I had them rated so high in my magazine, it influenced a few voters across the country, bumping them into the Top 10 despite the Sooners having five losses in 2009 and the fact that they did not even finish in the final AP Top 25.

I also am pleased that six of the 10 teams were ranked in the exact position that I projected including the Top 3 in Alabama, Ohio St and Boise St. I also had Texas, TCU and Virginia Tech ranked in their exact positions in the poll.

Last year I projected the preseason AP Top 10 would be #1 Oklahoma, #2 Alabama, #3 Oregon, #4 LSU, #5 Stanford, #6 Texas A&M, #7 Boise St, #8 Florida St, #9 Oklahoma St and #10 South Carolina.

The actual AP Top 10 was #1 Oklahoma, #2 Alabama, #3 Oregon, #4 LSU, #5 Boise St, #6 Florida St, #7 Stanford, #8 Texas A&M, #9 Oklahoma St and #10 Nebraska.

For the third year in a row I nailed nine of the ten teams that appeared in the Preseason Top 10 with the only exception being South Carolina/Nebraska, which I can defend easily.

First, when I released my projection back in February of last year South Carolina QB Stephen Garcia was still on the team and was not suspended which would end up costing him the spring and summer with the team. With Garcia’s status up in the air at the time of the AP ballots being due in late July and early August, South Carolina was dropped a bit giving way to Nebraska. The Cornhuskers meanwhile were my pick to win the Big Ten in last year’s magazine which probably influenced a few voters as well.

Now let’s take a look at this year’s projected Preseason AP Top 10:

***#10 West Virginia-The Mountaineers get the nod here due to a dominating 70-33 Orange bowl win over Clemson. This year WVU returns 14 starters including QB Geno Smith who should be more comfortable in his 2^nd-year of Dana Holgorsen’s offense. The asterisk is put on them because at the time of this projection it is not sure whether the Mountaineers will play in the Big East or the Big 12 for 2012. If they remain in the Big East they will be the clear-cut favorites with an easier schedule but if they are joining the Big 12 for 2012, their schedule will be tougher and I would project South Carolina for the #10 spot.

 #9 Arkansas-The Razorbacks have had their most successful B2B seasons since 1988-89 going 22-5 the last two years. This year they return 13 starters including QB Tyler Wilson and will get back 2010 All-SEC RB Knile Davis who was out all of last season with an ankle injury. Last year the Razorbacks lost only two games to the top 2 teams in LSU and Alabama (both on the road) and this year the Crimson Tide and Tigers have to travel to Arkansas.

#8 Florida St-The Seminoles were a darkhorse pick for the National Title last year but an injury to QB Manuel saw the Noles drop to 2-3 at one point in the season. FSU would respond to win 7 of its last 8 games including wins over Florida and Notre Dame in the bowl to cap off the season and this year they return 15 starters including QB Manuel and defensive stars DL Jenkins and DB Reid. FSU looks to also bring in one of the best frosh classes in the country and should clearly be the favorites in the ACC.

#7 Michigan-The Wolverines were one of the biggest surprises in college football last year winning 11 games and a BCS Bowl under first-year HC Brady Hoke. This year they return 7 starters on offense led by QB Denard Robinson and RB Toussaint who should be more comfortable in the 2^nd-year of the new offense. UM also return 7 starters from a defense that allowed just 17.4 ppg (#6) which was nearly an 18 ppg improvement from 2010! Michigan finished #12 in the final AP poll and figure to be the favorites to win the Big Ten this year.

#6 Georgia-I was one of the few people in the country last year to pick Georgia to win the SEC East over South Carolina thanks to a favorable SEC slate that had them avoiding Arkansas, LSU and Alabama out of the West and the Bulldogs would not disappoint taking home the SEC East crown. This year they return 15 starters including QB Aaron Murray, leading rusher Isaiah Crowell, their top 2 rec’s and a 1^st-Team All-American candidate on D in OLB Jarvis Jones. Again the Bulldogs AVOID LSU, Alabama and Arkansas out of the SEC West and will be the favorites to repeat as SEC East Champs.

#5 Oklahoma-The Sooners were the preseason AP #1 team last year and clearly underachieved losing three games including a 44-10 beatdown in Bedlam. They did win their bowl game over Iowa, return 15 starters including QB Landry Jones who will play better than last year’s finish and HC Bob Stoops and the Sooners have won at least 10 games in a season 10 times since 2000!

#4 Oregon-The Ducks have become a fixture among the nation’s elite under HC Chip Kelly with 3 straight BCS appearances and last year captured their first Rose Bowl win since 1916! While QB Darron Thomas and RB LaMichael James are gone, their replacements are plenty capable as QB Bryan Bennett and RB’s Kenjon Barner and De’Anthony Thomas return with some valuable game experience and the Ducks do not open with a marquee non-conference game like they did last year vs LSU.

#3 Alabama-The Crimson Tide were my pick to win the National Title last year and they did just that avenging an earlier loss to LSU by dominating the Tigers in the BCS Championship game 21-0. This year the defending champs return 7 starters on offense led by QB AJ McCarron who played magnificently in the title game. While the defense returns only 4 starters from last year, keep in mind in 2010, the Tide returned only 2 defensive starters and were the Preseason AP #1 team!

#2 USC-Last year while the probation-stricken Trojans were not eligible to play in the Pac-12 title game, I picked them to be the best team in the South and clearly they were just that going 10-2 (7-2) beating their crosstown rival Bruins who were the de facto Pac-12 South Champs 50-0 in the regular season finale! The Trojans locked up their spot here with the surprising return of QB Matt Barkley who is clearly one of the Heisman favorites in 2012. He will have plenty of skill position talent surrounding him with his top 2 WR’s Robert Woods and Marqise Lee back and 1,000 yd rusher Curtis McNeal also returning.  A case could be made at the end of last season that no team in the country was hotter than USC winning 7 of their last 8 games with a 3OT loss to Stanford their only blemish. With 15 returning starters, the Trojans clearly will be one of the favorites to take home the crystal ball.

#1 LSU-Last year LSU was picked 2^nd in the SEC West behind Alabama and would go on to have arguably the best regular season in school history going 13-0 winning the SEC Championship and would beat EIGHT Top 25 teams! While the National Title loss to Alabama still stings, many of the Tigers’ star players return for 2012 including Heisman candidate DB Tyrann Mathieu along with their their top 4 rushers. Throw in QB Zach Mettenberger who Miles said last year was his best pure passing QB and a home game vs Alabama and the Tigers will be the favorites to win the National Title!

JUST MISSED OUT:

I mentioned at the start of the blog that last year I had nine of the top 10 teams correctly predicted and it was the same case in 2009 and 2010 where I also missed out by 1. If one of the team’s I have projected in the Top 10 doesn’t make the polls, there are some teams that have a shot at jumping into the Top 10.

This year I believe there is just one team with a shot and it is #11 South Carolina who could jump the Mountaineers depending on what conference WVU will be in for 2012. Also putting the Gamecocks here is the fact that if they are in the Top 10 that would mean 5 of those teams would be from the SEC. The Gamecocks do return 13 starters including QB Connor Shaw and get back RB Marcus Lattimore who missed the last six games with a knee injury. They also get last year’s SEC East winner Georgia at home.

There you have it – My projections for the AP Preseason Top 10. As mentioned a couple of times in this article, these WILL NOT BE THE TOP 10 IN MY MAGAZINE. As you know, I tend to go out on a limb in a lot of cases and have a lot of surprise picks in my magazine. Those will be unveiled at the start of June when my magazine hits the newsstands but when the first AP poll comes out in August this year, go ahead and take this list and compare it and you’ll find that probably 9 or maybe even all 10 will be in the Preseason AP Top 10 this year.

In my July 28 blog, I gave you my homefield edges for 2011 and today I want to take a look at the best home records of the last decade and also look at some interesting variables. First here is the complete list of all 120 teams for home records.

Home Records 2001-2010

It is no surprise that Boise St is atop the list as their blue uniforms blend in with the blue turf giving them a unique advantage. Only one team has beaten them at home during the regular season and that was way back in 2001 when a Wash St team that finished 10-2 and #10 in the polls beat them 41-20. Their other home loss was in a bowl game vs Boston College 27-21 in 2005. While Boise has an incredible home record it must be factored in that they have played just 7 BCS conference schools at home this decade and are 5-2 in those games. That makes Oklahoma’s record of 61-2 even more remarkable. Almost all of their home games have been vs BCS foes and ironically one of their two home losses was to a non-BCS school when TCU beat them in 2005. Their other loss came when they were a 4 TD favorite to beat rival Oklahoma St which came into the game just 3-7 and that was the game that put Les Miles on the map. Oklahoma was caught looking ahead to their Big 12 title game vs Colorado the next week but that loss knocked them out of the game.

Eight teams have single digit losses at home this decade. Troy (6), Ohio St (7), TCU (7), USC (8), Texas (9), Utah (9) and Virginia Tech (9) have all lost less than 1 game at home per year. Here are some schools that rank near the top that the casual college football fan probably would not expect. Texas Tech is 51-11 at home this decade with Lubbock an out the way location with a loud home crowd. Despite having one of the smallest stadium capacities (44,500) for BCS schools, Boston College is 50-15 at Alumni. Northern Illinois is one of the loudest places to play despite the small capacity and they are 43-14 at home.

Is there an advantage to playing at home?

The 120 FBS teams have a combined home record of 4625-2690 which means that they win 63.2% of their home games. Also there are 97 of the 120 teams that have a record of .500 or better at home and just 23 teams that have a losing record at home this decade.

Let me take a closer look at the teams at the bottom of the list. All 23 teams listed above that had losing records at home have losing records overall this decade. There are 8 BCS conference schools on the list in Syracuse, Arizona, Washington, Indiana, Baylor, Mississippi St, Vanderbilt and Duke. When Duke wins opposing players usually say they were lulled to sleep by the high school sized crowds and they have pulled some upsets like upsetting Clemson in 2004 and Georgia Tech in 2003 but 6 of their 14 wins at home this decade have been vs FCS or 1AA foes so they are actually 8-47 at home vs FBS teams this decade.

That got me thinking of how many times a team has been an underdog at home this decade. Is there any team in the country that has not been an underdog even once at home? The answer is yes and it is Oklahoma who has lost only two of those. Florida has been a home dog just once in the “Swamp” and that was vs Florida St a game they did lose 38-34. Vegas linesmakers knew what they were doing with Boise St as they have been a home dog just twice this decade and those were their two home losses.

It probably does not surprise you that Duke has been a home dog 46 times this decade which is the most of any school.
That got me looking at two more scenarios. First of all which teams have been overrated at home. I took the amount of times a team was expected to lose at home (an underdog) and subtracted the amount of actual losses they suffered at home. There are 3 teams who lost 12 games (or more) than the amount of games they were expected to lose at home and the list is a little surprising. Florida St lost 18 games (12 in L/5 yrs) at home but were only a dog 4 times which puts them at the top of the list with 14.

Here are the teams that lost 12 or more games at home than was expected. 1. Florida St 14 2. Middle Tennessee 13 3. Southern Miss 12

Now lets take a look at the underrated home teams from this decade. I know Virginia has been a much better team at home than on the road. They are 43-22 at home and just 17-37 when playing on the road. It surprises me that they have been expected to lose (underdog) 29 times at home this decade and yet they have lost just 22 times. That is 7 full games better than expected and that is the 2nd best in the FBS. As you would expect the numbers are a lot lower for teams who actually have less losses at home than games they were expected to lose.

Here are the top 3 teams. Rice with 9. Virginia with 7 and Nevada with 5.

Tomorrow I take a look at the best road teams this decade.

23 Days Until the First College Football Game!!!

Remember when Oklahoma won the National Title in 2000? Not a single OU starter lost a single start due to injury! My research has shown that teams that benefited from very few injuries, in this case 6 or less, usually have a weaker season the next year.

The bottom line is, teams that have suffered a lot of injuries the previous year will generally have a better year the next season. A lot of backups were forced to play during the injury-riddled year, gaining valuable experience and the team figures to not be so injury-prone the next year.

In a study over the last 7 years, my research shows that if a team had 32 or more starts lost to injury the prior season, they improved or had the same record the next year on 56 out of 67 occasions for an 83.5% success rate. How about teams that are really banged up? Well from 2001-2005 12 teams went through seasons of having 40 or more combined starts lost and ALL 12 had the same or better record the next season. It surprises me that 17 teams met that criteria in 2006-’07 but only 7 had a stronger record the next year and 9 had a weaker record.

In 2008, Utah was at the top of the chart with 51 starts lost to injury and they went from 9-4 to 13-0 and #2 in the country! Last year was another solid year as 9 teams had 35 or more starts lost to injury in ‘09 and 8 of the 9 improved or had the same record (88%!). Here are the teams that suffered 32 or more starts lost to injury last year:

Most Amount of Starts Lost to Injury in 2010

As you can see North Carolina thanks to the NCAA suspensions led the country with 89 starts lost and it was one of the main reasons the Tar Heels did not meet my lofty expectations. San Jose St struggled big time with injuries last year and will benefit from better luck this year in MacIntyre’s 2nd season. UCLA also figures to be much improved after last years 59 starts lost to injury. Look for 13 or 14 of these teams to rebound this year and improve their record.

Now let’s look at the teams that had great fortune with very few injuries. With teams playing a 12 game schedule, I went for the magic number of 6 lost, figuring that is less than one half of one starter lost to injury during the year. Over the past 7 years only 17 of the 56 teams (30.3%) that had this good fortune managed to improve their record the next year. Last year there were NINE teams on this list and ALL NINE had a weaker record with SIX of them bowl teams from 2009 that finished with a losing record in 2010!!! There were a lot of teams (16) that had this good fortune last year.

Least Amount of Starts Lost to Injury in 2010

Baylor had the fewest starts lost to injury with only 1 all year and it was one of the main reasons the Bears went to their first bowl game since 1994.Expectations were low coming into 2010 for Oklahoma St as they had the least experienced team in the country but they only suffered two starts lost all year and surprised many by winning a school record 11 games. Oklahoma was #3 in most starts lost in 2009 with 42 but last year had much better luck with only 4 starts lost and went from 8 to 12 wins.

However the above teams will probably not be as fortunate this year and if the past trends hold up only 3 of them will improve their record this year.

Here is the complete list broken down by total starts lost and also by starts lost on offense and defense which can be indicators of one unit underachieving or overachieving last year.

Starts Lost to Injury 2010

PhilSteele.com will have a page updated weekly dedicated to starts lost again this year. We will track each team’s starts lost for the 2011 season so you can see which teams are really banged up and those that have remained very healthy. We even include start charts for each of the teams and also update them weekly!

Only 27 Days Until the First College Football Game!!!

I have gotten many requests to do a blog to explain how I compute each teams home field edge in the magazine. I have 27 different factors in my computer’s grade of a team. I then compare the computer’s analysis to my own and make the final decision.

While I mention that there are 27 factors in my home field computer ratings, there are actually nine individual factors that I use each year and I then combine the grades for the last three years giving half of the grade to last year, 30% to the numbers from two years ago and 20% to the computer rankings from three years ago.

Today I will go over the nine different areas that I use to rate home field edge. The first category is the stadium capacity. The largest stadium in the country last year was Penn St which held 107,282 and my computer gave them the maximum score of 6 for that category. My home field edges go from 0 to 6 in the magazine so they have the same scale in the computer. The smallest capacity is Idaho’s Kibbie Dome which seated just 16,000 and they received a 0 in that category. The rest of the capacities are done with a simple equation of Capacity-16,000 divided by 15,250. The reason I divide by 15,250 is that Penn St at 107,282-16,000 = 91,282 and 91,282 divided by 6 (0-6 scale) = 15,214 and I rounded up to get the 15,250. You can figure out what your favorite team is graded in this category by using this simple equation.

The second category is actual attendance reported by the school in 2010. Once again Michigan was at the top with 111,825 and this time the team at the bottom was Ball St which averaged just 8,947 fans per game last year. I used the same method as above to turn this data into a 0 to 6 rating where Michigan received a 6, Ball St a 0 and as an example Florida St with an attendance of 71,270 earned a 4.15 grade.

The third category is % of capacity. Let’s face it, a crowd of 45,000 in a 45,000 seat stadium is louder than a crowd of 45,000 in a half-full 90,000 seat stadium. The winner in this category last year was Alabama at 111% of capacity as they had an avg attendance of 101,821 with a listed capacity of 92,138. Oregon had a 110% capacity with an avg attendance of 59,398 with a stadium capacity of 54,000. There were 10 schools that had a larger average attendance than their listed capacity last year. At the bottom of this category was UAB which brought in an average of 18,360 fans to their 72,000 seat stadium which is just 26%. Five teams had an average attendance of less than 40% capacity and 9 had an average attendance of less than 50% of capacity.

The next category is last years straight up win/loss record for each team at home. There were 15 teams last year that finished with an undefeated record at home while there were 2 teams last year that were actually winless at home. Those 2 teams were Eastern Michigan and North Texas.

The fifth category is the last 3 years straight up records at home. Oklahoma, Boise St and TCU are all undefeated at home in that span while Alabama, Troy and Utah all have just one loss. At the bottom of the scale is Western Kentucky and North Texas who have won just 1 home games in the last 3 years. Once again this is on a 0-6 point basis.

The next category is the last 5 years records at home. Boise St and Oklahoma come in #1 here at a perfect 32-0 and 31-0 game at home respectively. TCU is next up with just 2 losses. North Texas and Eastern Michigan are at the bottom over 5 years with NT at 5-22 and EMU 5-19.

Sometimes teams compile great home records because they play a bunch of cupcakes. Sometimes teams compile a weak record because they play a large amount of ranked teams. The easiest way to determine if a team played above or below expectations is to look at their records against the Las Vegas spread. If a team was favored to win by 30 that means the opponent was weak and a 3 point win is unimpressive vs that caliber of opponent. I weigh each of the different factors and the actual home win record is given twice the weight of the ATS record. I used the records for last year, the last 3 years and the last 5 years. The best record over the last 5 years is CMU at 16-6 with Oklahoma #2 at 21-8 and TCU #3 at 20-8. At the bottom are Army at 6-18, and Fresno 7-20.

I then factor in the 9 categories from the 2009 and 2008 seasons which gives me 27 categories for the computer to factor in and I have them appropriately weighted. I then look at the computer’s grade which had Oklahoma #1 with a 5.65 home edge. Ohio St #2 at 5.59 and Oregon #3 at 5.23. At the bottom the computer has Eastern Michigan #120 at 1.19, North Texas #119 at 1.36 and WKU #118 at 1.54.

The final category is my own personal grade. I have 12 TV’s in front of me and watch 12 games all day long on Saturday and watch every nighttime game on ESPN. I can hear the crowd noise at each stadium and I weigh in how many times I thought it was a factor in a game. I look at how good the team has been the last 5 years and what percentage of games they win at home and on the road in my personal evaluation.

After that evaluation, I gave three teams a 6-point home edge in this year’s magazine in Oklahoma, Boise St and Oregon. Virginia Tech and Ohio St hav a 5.75 grade while Florida, Penn St, TCU, Wisconsin and Alabama all earned 5.25 grades from me. At the bottom of the scale I gave a 1.5 point home edge to Eastern Michigan with WKU, New Mexico St and Tulane all earning 2s.

Here are all my 2011 Homefield edges for all 120 Teams.

Phil Steele’s 2011 Homefield Edges
(higher number the better)

Only 35 Days Until the First College Football Game!!!

Over the weekend I released my projected preseason AP Top 10 and I thought I would analyze another set of rankings for the upcoming season. A couple of weeks ago, several casinos released their odds for the 2011-12 BCS National Championship. While PhilSteele.com does not affiliate itself with gambling, I do think it is interesting to see how Vegas is examining the upcoming season.

Here are the Top 10 Favorites to win the title this upcoming year courtesy of Bodog.com.

1. Oklahoma             Odds: 7/2

If you checked out my projected AP Top 10 blog, you would have read that the Sooners are clearly the favorite going into next season and the odds certainly agree here. They return 15 starters on off/def including QB Jones, WR Broyles and LB Lewis. Their schedule sets up nicely with a bye before their road trip to Florida St (a team they dominated LY 47-17). In Big 12 play naturally there is the Red River Rivalry game vs Texas who is coming off a 5-7 season and the only other huge hurdle could be the season finale at Oklahoma St but the Sooners have won the Bedlam rivalry 8 straight times and have an overall mark of 82-16-7 vs their in-state rivals.

2. Alabama             Odds: 15/2

The Crimson Tide were my projected AP #2 team for 2011. Despite the losses of QB McElroy, RB Ingram and WR Jones and DT/DE Dareus, the Tide return 15 starters including 9 from a defense that figures to be among the best in the country. While they do have road trips to Penn St, Florida and Auburn none of those teams figure to be in the preseason top 10 so they have a great opportunity of being favored in every game this season.

3. Florida St             Odds: 10/1

The Noles return 16 starters, bring in one of the best frosh classes in the country and should be the ACC favorites. However, their schedule is not soft by any means as they host pre-season favorite Oklahoma and travel to Florida in non-conf play and have to play ACC Atlantic foes Clemson and Boston College on the road.

4. Boise St             Odds: 12/1

The Broncos return 14 starters including QB Moore. While they do move to the MWC and open the season vs Georgia in Atlanta, the Broncos get defending MWC champ TCU at home (where they have not lost a reg ssn gm since 2001) also get defending CUSA champ Tulsa at home and will probably be favored to win 11 of their 12 games.

4. LSU              Odds: 12/1

The Tigers return 15 starters from a team that surprised many going 11-2 last year. While they open the season with a huge showdown vs Oregon in Arlington, the Tigers will probably be favored to win the rest of the games with the exception of a road trip to Alabama later in the season. Road trips to Mississippi St and West Virginia in September will be tricky as well.

6. Oregon            Odds: 14/1

This year the Ducks return just 11 starters on off/def but get QB Thomas and Doak Walker winner RB James back from a offense that avg’d 47 ppg. UO does have a monster non-conf game vs LSU in the opener and have road trips to Arizona, Washington and Stanford but still will be the preseason favorite to win the Pac-10 for a third straight season.

7. Florida            Odds: 15/1

This one is a bit of a surprise since the Gators are coming off just an 8-5 season and have a new HC in Will Muschamp. UF does return 13 starters and have a lot of talent on hand thanks to some outstanding recruiting. However, rheir three-game stretch to start off October is as challenging as team will face during any stretch. (Bama, at LSU, at Auburn).

8. Nebraska      Odds: 18/1

It will be an interesting year for the Huskers as they move to the Big 10. They do return just 12 starters from last year’s team that again came up just short of the Big 12 title. One of the starters back is QB Martinez. As far as their schedule goes, the conference did them no favors with road games at Wisconsin, Penn St and Michigan along with home games vs Ohio St and Michigan.

9.  Penn St            Odds: 20/1

Another interesting pick here as the Nittany Lions are coming off just a 7-6 season. They do return 15 starters and their QB situation should be in much better shape this year. Home games vs Alabama and Iowa are their biggest tests before a 3 game stretch to close the season vs Nebraska, at Ohio St and at Wisconsin.

10. TCU            Odds: 20/1

The Horned Frogs are here naturally because of their great success over the past several seasons but they do return just 8 starters on off/def and lose their leader in QB Andy Dalton. Their schedule is not yet finalized as they are missing a couple of non-conf games but their biggest test looks to be a road game at Boise.

Here are some other odds:

Well here it is, my projected AP Top 10 for next year as of February 11, 2011! I will mention it now and I will mention it numerous times throughout today’s blog but this is not MY preseason Top 10 for next year, it is where I project the AP Top 10 to come out at the start of the season.

Most AP voters usually look at a couple of criteria when they evaluate a team for the upcoming season. First they look at the number of returning starters that the team has coming back particularly at the offensive skill positions. A team that returns its starting QB and a combination of its RB and WRs is often times more highly thought of than a team that loses its starting QB but returns its entire offensive line. Similarly a team that returns most of its starters on offense but loses a lot of its defensive playmakers usually is more highly thought of than a team that returns a majority of its defensive starters but loses its skill position players on offense.

Another factor that is heavily weighted is the performance of the team in the bowl game, which undoubtedly is the lasting image of that team in the offseason. A team coming off a huge bowl win usually is more highly thought of than a team that is coming off a bowl loss regardless of what their schedule looks like for the upcoming season.

Using these criteria and a few more, I project the preseason AP Top 10 every year at the conclusion of the previous season, which in most cases is nearly 6 months in advance. Now as you all know, a lot can happen from January to August including injuries, suspensions, transfers, etc.

In 2009, my projected Top 10 for the AP Poll was #1 Florida, #2 Texas, #3 USC, #4 Oklahoma, #5 Alabama, #6 Virginia Tech, #7 LSU, #8 Oklahoma St, #9 Ohio St and #10 Mississippi. The actual AP Top 10 was #1 Florida, #2 Texas, #3 Oklahoma, #4 USC, #5 Alabama, #6 Ohio St, #7 Virginia Tech, #8 Mississippi and #9 was a tie between Oklahoma St/Penn St.

I nailed nine of the ten teams that appeared in the Preseason Top 10 with the only exception being LSU/Penn St and I may have had something to do with that. It’s interesting to note that of the main preseason magazines, only two had Penn St ranked in the Top 10 and I had them my #1 surprise team and ranked #5. Most had Penn St out of the Top 10. Perhaps since I had them rated so high in my magazine, it influenced a few voters across the country, bumping them into the Top 10.

Last year I projected the preseason AP Top 10 would be #1 Alabama, #2 Ohio St, #3 Boise St, #4 Oregon, #5 Texas, #6 TCU, #7 Iowa, #8 Florida, #9 Nebraska and #10 Virginia Tech.

The actual AP Top 10 was #1 Alabama, #2 Ohio St, #3 Boise St, #4 Florida, #5 Texas, #6 TCU, #7 Oklahoma, #8 Nebraska, #9 Iowa and #10 Virginia Tech.

For the second year in a row I nailed nine of the ten teams that appeared in the Preseason Top 10 with the only exception being Oregon/Oklahoma, which I can defend easily.

First, at the time I wrote my projection back in early February Duck QB Jeremiah Masoli was not yet suspended. With Masoli still in the fold at that point Oregon had 17 returning starters including RB LaMichael James and Masoli in the backfield. The Ducks clearly would have been a preseason Top 10 team and probably Top 5 had Masoli not been kicked off the team. Even without Masoli Oregon was still rated #11 in the preseason poll.

The team that I did not have in my projected AP Top 10 was Oklahoma (#7) and if you have purchased last year’s magazine or listed to one of my radio shows across the country you know I thought very highly of the Sooners as I had them ranked #1. Like Penn St last year perhaps since I had them rated so high in my magazine, it influenced a few voters across the country, bumping them into the Top 10 despite the Sooners having five losses in 2009 and the fact that they did not even finish in the final AP Top 25.

I also am pleased that six of the 10 teams were ranked in the exact position that I projected including the top 3 in Alabama, Ohio St and Boise St. I also had Texas, TCU and Virginia Tech ranked in their exact positions in the poll.
Now let’s take a look at this year’s projected Preseason AP Top 10:

#10 SOUTH CAROLINA-Last year the Gamecocks returned 16 starters (#2 SEC) and had only 11 lettermen lost. They also signed one of the best frosh classes ever which included my PS#1 RB Marcus Lattimore. In my magazine I said that SC was a legit SEC contender and they even made my list of Surprise Teams (darkhorse national title contender).  They didn’t disappoint beating #1 defending champ Alabama at home and getting a key win on the road vs Florida as SC made their first appearance in the SEC Champ game. They did finish the season with consecutive losses but this year return 7 starters on offense including QB Garcia and RB Lattimore and figure to be the favorites to repeat as SEC East Division champs.

#9 OKLAHOMA ST-Last year the Cowboys were one of the least experienced teams in the entire country coming into the season with just 8 returning starters. However, HC Gundy did an outstanding job leading them to their most wins in a season in school history and this year despite the loss of OC Holgorsen and RB Hunter, the Cowboys return 9 starters including QB Weeden and Biletnikoff winner Blackmon from an offense that avg’d 44 ppg. The Cowboys do have tough road games at Texas A&M, Texas, Texas Tech and Missouri and that is why they will not be ranked even higher in the preseason AP Poll.
#8 FLORIDA ST-HC Fisher inherited a good situation last year as they were loaded on offense with 9 returning starters and they got most of their toughest ACC foes at home. 7 of my 9 sets of power ratings called for their first double digit win season since 2003 and they did just that beating in-state rival Florida, getting to the ACC champ game and then beating South Carolina in the bowl game. This year they return 16 starters, bring in one of the best frosh classes in the country and should be the ACC favorites.

#7 BOISE ST-Last year the Broncos were one of the most experienced teams in the country with 20 returning starters and started out #3 in the AP Poll. A win over Virginia Tech in the opener had them thinking national title but a heartbreaking loss to Nevada in OT late in the year cost them a BCS Bid. Nonetheless they still won 12+ games for the third year in a row and this year return 14 starters including QB Moore. While they do move to the MWC and open the season vs Georgia in Atlanta, the Broncos get defending MWC champ TCU at home (where they have not lost a reg ssn gm since 2001) and will probably be favored to win 11 of their 12 games.

#6 TEXAS A&M-Last year I thought the Aggies were a much stronger team than their previous seasons and they made my Most Improved List. After struggling to a 3-3 start HC Sherman made the bold move to bench QB Johnson for backup Tannehill and the Aggies preceded to roll off 6 straight wins including wins over Big 12 powers Oklahoma, Nebraska and Texas en route to only their second 9 win season since 2000. This year they bring back 17 starters on off/def including Tannehill and get Oklahoma St, Missouri and Texas at home.

#5 STANFORD-Last year 3 of my 9 sets of power ratings called for an 11-1 season and after my magazine was published in May, the Cardinal were one of the teams that I thought probably should have been higher in my ratings in my mag come late August. Led by QB Luck, the Cardinal simply went out and had one of their best seasons in school history finishing 12-1 with a dominating win over Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl. This year the Cardinal lose HC Harbaugh to the 49ers but will still be a AP top 5 pick because Luck surprisingly decided to come back for another year and he is probably not only one of the Heisman favorites but also the top NFL prospect in college this year.

#4 LSU-Last year the Tigers returned just 10 starters but surprised many finishing the season 11-2 with a dominating win over Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl. This year they return 8 starters from an offense that avg’d 30 ppg including QB Jefferson who improved his play down the stretch. While they open the season with a huge showdown vs Oregon in Arlington, the Tigers will probably be favored to win the rest of the games with the exception of a road trip to Alabama later in the season.

#3 OREGON-Last year 8 of my 9 sets of power ratings called the Ducks the best team in the Pac-10 and they didn’t disappoint running through their regular season a perfect 12-0 before losing a heartbreaker in the national title game to Auburn. This year the Ducks return just 11 starters on off/def but get QB Thomas and Doak Walker winner RB James back from a offense that avg’d 47 ppg. UO does have a monster non-conf game vs LSU in the opener and have road trips to Arizona, Washington and Stanford but still will be the preseason favorite to win the Pac-10 for a third straight season.

#2 ALABAMA-Last year the Crimson Tide were coming off B2B 12-0 regular seasons and anything less than a repeat national title was going to be a disappointment. While the Tide did finish just 10-3, when they were playing their “A” game as evidence of the 1H of the Auburn game and the Capital One bowl vs 11-1 Michigan St, they were clearly one of the best teams in the country. This year despite the losses of QB McElroy, RB Ingram and WR Jones, the Tide return 15 starters including 9 from a defense that figures to be among the best in the country. While they do have road trips to Penn St, Florida and Auburn none of those teams figure to be in the preseason top 10 so they have a great opportunity of being favored in every game this season.

#1 OKLAHOMA-Last year I surprised many by ranking the Sooners as my #1 team in my pre-season magazine despite coming off a 5-loss season in 2009. While they did not win the national title, the Sooners did go 12-2 winning the Big 12 title and dominated UConn in the Fiesta Bowl. This year OU will be ranked #1 in the pre-season by nearly everyone as they return 15 starters on off/def including QB Jones, WR Broyles and LB Lewis. Their schedule sets up nicely with a bye before their road trip to Florida St (a team they dominated LY 47-17). In Big 12 play naturally there is the Red River Rivalry game vs Texas who is coming off a 5-7 season and the only other huge hurdle could be the season finale at Oklahoma St but the Sooners have won the Bedlam rivalry 8 straight times and have an overall mark of 82-16-7 vs their in-state rivals. With their key returning starters back and a favorable schedule, the Sooners should get the nod as the Preseason AP #1 team!

THOSE THAT JUST MISSED OUT:

I mentioned at the start of the blog that last year I had nine of the top 10 teams correctly predicted and it was the same case in 2009 where I also missed out by 1. If one of the team’s I have projected in the Top 10 doesn’t make the polls, there are 4 teams that have a shot at jumping into the Top 10.

Right now, I would project Ohio State to be #11 heading into the season and the only reason they are this low is the fact that several of their key players including QB Pryor and their top RB and WR will miss the first 5 games. Also their first game back is a road trip to Nebraska but I still feel with their strong finish to the 2010 season and the fact that they have won or shared 6 straight Big 10 titles will get them the nod over the Cornhuskers.

At #12 in the AP poll should be Nebraska who returns QB Martinez and 7 starters on defense. Nebraska would have been higher but there has been some turmoil already this past off-season and they were unimpressive in their bowl game.

The rest of the teams are #13 Arkansas and #14 Wisconsin.

There you have it – My projections for the AP Preseason Top 10. As mentioned a couple of times in this article, these WILL NOT BE THE TOP 10 IN MY MAGAZINE. As you know, I tend to go out on a limb in a lot of cases and have a lot of surprise picks in my magazine. Those will be unveiled at the start of June when my magazine hits the newsstands but when the first AP poll comes out in August this year, go ahead and take this list and compare it and you’ll find that probably 9 or maybe even all 10 will be in the Preseason AP Top 10 this year.

Happy New Year!!!

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The Bowl confidence contest is under way and Congratulations to the top four players who all have perfect scores thru the first three games with a perfect 102 pts. However many times the players that rank in the top early are those that wagered the most pts and if you are not on the top leaderboard right now, naturally you still have plenty of opportunities to rise up/fall down the standings in the coming weeks.

Last year we expanded the contest to nearly 1200 contestants, which was double from any other previous season and this year we more than doubled the number of contestants with nearly 3000 entries!

So far thru 3 games a lot of people already have one loss as 64.5% of you picked Fresno St and they were beaten by Northern Illinois. Also only 56.6% of you had Troy winning so the remaining 43.4% of you who picked Ohio in the New Orleans bowl also lost. Most of you (92%) had BYU winning and that came as no surprise as they rolled over UTEP. Here are the top 10 picksheets so far after the first 3 bowl games.

Top 10 Overall Standings

Last year we had four different radio stations participate with their own groups and this year we expanded to a dozen different groups.

Here are the total number of contestants for the major groups and the current leaders.

WKNR Cleveland, Ohio w/Michael Reghi
(236 Contestants)

WVSP Virginia Beach, Virginia w/Tony Mercurio
(202 Contestants)

STO Cleveland, Ohio w/Bruce Drennan
(172 Contestants)

Erik Kuselias (114 Contestants)

KMBE Houston, Texas w/Charlie Pallilo
(94 Contestants)

WDFN Detroit, Michigan w/Sean Baligian
(53 Contestants)

For complete overall standings or each individual group click here.

Another new feature this year is the pick statistics for each game. I find this interesting to see the percentages of who you think will win each game and how many confidence points on average were selected for each team.

Here are all the bowl games ranked in order on the percentages of each game with your picks in bold.

Pick Percentages

To no surprise Oklahoma takes the top spot as 97.3% of you picked the Sooners to beat Connecticut in the Fiesta Bowl. Also high on the list was Boise St 96.2% and in a rematch from earlier this year 95.8% of you picked Nebraska to beat Washington for a second time this season. It was interesting to see that 65.2% of you picked Wisconsin to upset TCU in the Rose Bowl and down at the bottom was Notre Dame with only 52.7% of you predicting the Irish to upset Miami in the Sun Bowl.

Another way to look at how you voted is to see the average number of confidence pts wagered on each game. These points totals should be close to the overall % but that will not always be the case as many of you could have picked Miami, Ohio by a large confidence pts while others of you could have picked Middle Tennessee by that same confidence total. Here are the top Confidence pt averages with the % rank in the left.

Confidence Points Avg.

Just like the percentages, the Fiesta Bowl saw most of you wagering the highest confident point total and again most of you picked Oklahoma to win. The Holiday Bowl came in 2nd this time with 27.3 confidence pts with most of you picking Nebraska but there were a couple of interesting notes. Despite being just #9 in the percentage rank the Capital One Bowl saw an average of 23.5 pts which was the 4th highest. Also the Sun Bowl had an average of 14.4 pts, which was higher than 8 other bowls. This means that while only 52.7% picked Notre Dame, you picked the Irish with a higher point total and the 47.3% of you who picked Miami, Fl also picked the Hurricanes with a high point total.

News and Notes

Tough loss for Arizona vs Arizona St. While both D’s controlled matters in the 1H and ASU had a 136-83 yd edge, there were 5 key plays that hurt UA. ASU led 6-0 helped by the fact UA dropping four int’s. Any one of those would have set them up and taken away QB Osweiler’s confidence as he struggled early on. UA also had a zero yd punt and on ASU’s final drive of the 1H they converted on 3&10, 3&8 and even 3&19. UA appeared to take control with two 3Q TD’s and led 14-6 but fumbled at the 49 up 14-9. ASU got a couple of fortunate pen’s. On 2&5 they took a 6 yd sk back to the 11 but a hands to the face on a DL was called for a FD at the 2. Then on 3&3, ASU’s rec pushed the UA DB to the ground and caught the ball for the TD. A flag was thrown for the obvious pass interference but it was ruled def pass interference so it was a TD. The final 2 key plays that went against UA both involved xp’s. They got a TD with :27 left in the game to pull out the win but the xp was blk’d sending it to OT. In the 2nd OT each team got a TD but ASU blk’d the xp again.

Fresno St got their 2nd win over a BCS school this year after beating Cincinnati in the season opener. FSU dominated early with a 72/8pl TD drive then got a 78 yd TD pass and after a 6pl drive, a 45 yd FG to lead 16-0 after 1Q. IL got an 18 yd FG then a 35 yd TD run and it was 19-10 at the half and FSU had a 233-165 yd edge. There were 3 TD drives on the first 5 poss of the 2H, two by Illinois but after their 2nd TD which came with 14:55 left in the game they missed the 2 pt conversion and trailed 25-23. UI punted with 9:31 left and FSU on 3&13 fired incomplete from their own 7 but a pers foul late hit gave them a FD. They then converted on 3&10 and opted to go for it on 4&1 and got a FD to their own 47. After 1 more FD, they finally punted with just :18 left after a 50/15pl drive. IL brought McGee in at QB (bigger arm). After an incompletion he was sk’d at his own 4 on the final play.

Northern Illinois once again lost a MAC Title game with a late 4th down conversion. In 2005 when after 4 FD’s, Akron’s Hixon hauled in a 36 yd TD pass with :10 left and on 1st &15 NI’s Hail Mary pass fell incomplete. This year Miami in the 1H had an xp and FG blk’d and trailed 14-13. They drove for a TD to open the 3Q to lead 20-14 but then faked a FG on 4&gl from the 5 and only gained 3 yds. It appeared those 3 points would come back and haunt them and perhaps the reason they did not try to the FG were the 2 blocks. NI led 21-20 and punted with 2:48 left and MU took over at its own 48. They faced a 4&20 and although a deep pass was underthrown and deflected by a Huskies defender and Givens hauled it in for a 31 yd play to the NI31. On 2&12 they got a 33 yd TD pass for a 26-21 lead. NI got down to the MU32 but on 3&8, Harnish scrambled and was tkl’d and the clock ran out.

West Virginia dominated Rutgers much more than the final score would indicate. The Mountaineers had 25-11 FD and 523-203 yd edges. In the 1H WV fumbled at the RU8 then RU13 costing them 2 scores. They also had a 37 yd FG blk’d and only led 14-7 at the half. QB Smith got a 10 yd run for an apparent TD but as he was going in, he fumbled. For their 3rd fumble inside the 15. WV got a TD with 4:32 left to lead 35-7 but RU on 4&2 got a 6 yd pass to the WV44 and then a 44 yd garbage TD pass to Harrison with 2:02 left to “only” lose by 21.

UCF held the ball for 13:00 in the 1Q and UCF and SMU combined for just 10 points in the 1H, the lowest total in the 6 year history of the CUSA Title game. UCF had their opportunities to take charge. At the end of the half, they had a 1st & gl at the 3 but settled for a 29 yd FG and led 10-0. UCF opened the 3Q with an 85/8pl drive for a 36 yd TD run by Latavius Murray who had 2 TD’s and was the game’s MVP. SMU got a 22 yd TD pass with 9:15 left to get back within 10. UCF got an IR to the SMU28 but after a sk on 4&17 opted for a 52 yd FG and missed it with 3:41 left. SMU converted on 4&5, 3&12 and 4&7 but on 4&10 from the UCF25 was sk’d for an 8 yd loss.

Pittsburgh’s Dion Lewis rushed for 261 yards and 4 TD’s on a snow covered field at Cincinnati. You could not see the yard lines and Pitt was wearing white uniforms which may have helped them as they blended into the surface. Finally Lewis was given the feature back role and was handed the ball 42 times and was very effective. Pitt had a 430-265 yd edge and while they won by 18, they also blew some opportunities including having a pass go through WR Shanahan’s hands and was int’d at the UC1, they hit the upright on a 38 yd FG and fmbl’d at the UC4 with 5:48 left.

Boise St was coming off a rare loss but rolled over Utah St 50-14 in a game they led 43-7. Unfortunately, Kyle Brotzman only had 1 FG attempt in and he missed it. Utah St rushed for 250 yds but only threw for 41 on the blue turf. Utah St’s Kerwynn Williams set a new FBS single season record for KR yards with 1,421 on the year breaking the previous mark of 1,410 set earlier this season by Taveon Rogers of New Mexico St.

Howard Schnellenberger coached his 300th career college game but it didn’t go the way he would have liked it to as Troy dominated FAU. Leading 30-0 at the half with a 307-164 yard edge, Troy rolled to a 44-7 win. FAU lost their last 3 games of the season and finished 4-8 on the year.

Colin Kaepernick tied an NCAA record for TD’s rushing by a QB  as he got his 59th on what was a designed pass play. He ties Nebraska’s Eric Crouch for that mark. Kaepernick hit 13-17-159 passing while rushing for 155 yards on 20 carries. He has topped 100 yards rushing 16x in his career and became just the 3rd QB in NCAA history to top 4,000 yards rushing (4,090) trailing only Pat White (4,480) and Brad Smith (4,289). Louisiana Tech led 14-7. LT’s Phillip Livas nearly set an NCAA record for KR TD’s but Nevada K Ricky Drake tackled him in the 4Q when he was on his way to what would have been his 9th.

Oregon struggled for most of their game vs Oregon St, trailing 7-0 early. OSU faked a FG and was int’d and the Ducks went 74/7pl for a TD. UO did miss a 25 yd FG on the final play of the half after a 73/13pl drive. UO had a 242-126 yd edge. The Ducks were SOD at the OSU32 early 3Q but went 79/7pl for a TD to lead 23-7. OSU went 65/11pl but settled for a 26 yd FG after a 1st & gl at the 2. On OSU’s next drive they had a 1&gl again but settled for a 22 yd FG and trailed by 10, 23-13. UO got a 23 yd TD run with 12:16 left to go up by 17. OSU punted with 10:40 left, was int’d at the UO39 and then the Ducks clinched it with a 10 yd TD run by James with 4:27 left, 37-13. OSU got a garbage 12 yd TD pass with 1:18 left for the 17 pt final. UO did have a 491-319 yd edge.

Idaho blocked a 26 yard FG by SJS on the last play of regulation to force OT and in OT SJS settled for a 39 yd FG while Idaho, on 3&8, got a 23 yd TD pass. SJS outgained the Vandals 496-421. SJS also missed an xp in the 3Q which would have given them the victory in regulation as well. Not only did they have problems with FG’s, but in the 2H SJS went on a 72/9pl drive and had a 2nd & gl at the 1. La Secla was int’d in the EZ for a TB. At the end of the half, SJS had a FD at the ID13 with :43 left but La Secla was int’d at the 5 costing them even more points…Cam Newton wrapped up the Heisman and Auburn got the largest victory ever in an SEC Title game in their rout of South Carolina. Auburn scored TD’s on their first 3 poss to jump out to a 21-7 lead but at 21-14 on the last play of the half, Newton threw a Hail Mary pass to the EZ which bounced off 1 receiver and was hauled in by Adams for a 51 yd TD to make it 28-14. Auburn had a 348-196 yd edge at the half. Auburn finished with a 589-349 yd edge with SC gaining 102 of its 349 yards on the final 2 drives trailing 49-14. Newton rushed for 73 yards and hit 17-28-335.

The Apple Cup was interesting as Washington needed a win to become bowl eligible. Chris Polk had the 2nd best rushing total in UW history with 284 yards on 29 carries. Only Hugh McElhenny’s 296 in 1950 (also vs WSU) is better. UW came into the year the 3rd longest drought of AQ schools of not getting to a bowl with only Baylor and Duke being longer. UW’s last trip came in 2002. Big plays were the keys for the Huskies. On a fake punt they got a 30 yd pass down to the 7 in the 2Q and a TD on the next play made it 14-0. UW led 28-14 when WSU drove 70/10pl and 73/6pl for TD’s to make it 28-28 with 4:26 left. With 1:21 left the FG unit was brought on for a 49 yd’r but changed their mind. They went for it and got a FD run to the 16. A pers foul forced a 2nd & 21 and UW needed just a FG for the win but opted to go for the EZ and got a 27 yd TD pass with :44 left on 2 & 21 to get the cover.

Matt Barkley was questionable coming in but hit 15-26-198 yards. USC got a 68 yd FR TD to lead 14-7 in the 2Q and beat their crosstown rival for the 11th time in the last 12 meetings. USC did have a 474-358 yard edge and a 22-17 FD edge. Despite finishing 8-5, USC will not be in a bowl for the first time S/’07 due to NCAA sanctions and it would have been a Holiday Bowl berth this year. UCLA trailed 28-7 before getting a TD with just :23 left in the game as the Bruins lost their 6th game in the last 7. It was only the 4th time in the last 35 years neither is headed to post season so it was like a bowl for both. The crowd of 71,105 was well below capacity.

Oklahoma won its 7th Big 12 Title, more than 2x as many as any other school and it was the 7th straight for the South Div. OU had 454-293 yd and 19-13 FD edges. The Huskers had 3 big plays to take a 17-0 lead. They got a 66 yd TD run by Roy Helu as they had limited success on offense in the 1H. They got a 53 yd FG by Alex Henery and then got a 33 yd IR to the OU12. At the end of the play, Sooner WR Broyles took the ball out of Osborne’s hands and it was orig ruled OU rec’d a fmbl but replays showed Osborne’s knee could have been down and they gave the ball to NU. Two plays later they got a TB pass out of the Wildcat from TB Burkhead to Reed, 17-0. OU got the 2nd largest comeback in Big 12 Title history (CU came back from 19 down to beat UT in ‘01). NU has now lost the last 2 B12 Title games by a total of 4 points. Taylor Martinez was sk’d 7 times. OU was SOD at the NU34 on 4&5, SOD at the NU25 on 4&1, settled for a 26 yd FG after a 12 play drive, missed a chipshot 24 yd FG, settled for a 20 yd FG after a 59/8pl drive on a 1st & gl at the 3 and settled for a 27 yd FG after a 55/11pl drive.