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Posts Tagged ‘picks’

Super Bowl XLVI Forecast

February 5th, 2012 No comments
SUPER BOWL XLVI
SUNDAY FEBRUARY 5TH
6:30 PM NBC

NY GIANTS (12-7) VS NEW ENGLAND (15-3)

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
NY GIANTS 108
328
26
1.6
#25
98.8
NEW ENGLAND
111
258
28
1.7
#5
99.7
GAME OVERVIEW

The more things change the more they stay the same for Super Bowl XLVI. Both teams return to the Super Bowl for the 1st time since 2007 looking to cement their status in NFL history. Tom Brady has been the starting QB for NE for 10 years and this will be his 5th Super Bowl. He’s tied Joe Montana’s 16 game postseason victory mark and with a win he’d be tied with Terry Bradshaw and Montana with 4 SB victories. Oddly enough Brady has flown under the radar in 2011 due to the success of other QB’s. He also broke Dan Marino’s yardage barrier this season and his 39 passing TD’s was the 2nd best of his career. This game would redeem Brady’s loss in SB XLII and firmly put him ahead of Peyton Manning in the best of this era conversation in Manning’s own house. Winning SB XLII took Eli Manning out of his brother’s shadow but with a win he’d be ahead of his ailing brother in Championships while giving himself and Tom Coughlin a legit shot at the Hall of Fame. Eli is the 1st NFL QB in history with five road playoff victories. He also has more playoff wins in Giants history than Phil Simms (6). This isn’t much of a surprise as under Coughlin the Giants are 43-27 on the road vs 38-30 at home inc playoffs. The Giants survived a 4 game consecutive losing streak and after missing the playoffs LY despite 10 wins there was serious concerns about Coughlin’s future. Much like 2007, the Giants 38-35 loss to an offensive juggernaut gave them a big confidence boost to fuel their playoff drive. They got healthier as the season went along and played their best ball of the season in the 4 games prior to SF. The Giants can be the 1st 9-7 team to win a Super Bowl. Without a doubt SB XLVI looks to be a great way to cap off what had been a very tenuous 2011 for players and owners over the CBA negotiations.

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AFC/NFC Championship Game Forecasts!

January 22nd, 2012 No comments
NFL PLAYOFFS: 5-3
136-74 65% REGULAR SEASON

 

1 AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
SUNDAY, JANUARY 22nd
3:00 PM ET CBS
7

BALTIMORE (13-4) AT NEW ENGLAND (14-3)

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
BALTIMORE 130
215
19
1.8
#25
97.6
NEW ENGLAND
106
335
35
1.2
#6
98.6
Even though they avenged their loss in 2010, the 33-14 home loss in the 2009 Wildcard round still stings the Patriots. BAL was simply the more physical team that day as they dominated all phases. This led to NE altering their offensive package to be 2 TE heavy and more physical. Both teams took advantage of inexperienced QB’s LW’s to advance. NE exerted their will vs DEN (509-252 yd edge) while BAL capitalized on HOU’s mistakes. Seventeen of BAL’s 20 pts were off TO’s with only 2 drives over 40 yds on the day. NE is now 8-1 at home TY outgaining foes by 70 ypg (+7 TO’s) for a 32-18 avg score. BAL went 4-4 on the road w/a +14 ypg mark (-5 TO’s) for a 20-18 avg score. SD, NYJ, PIT, and IND are the common foes with BAL going 4-1 w/a 331-287 yd edge (+6 TO’s) for a 26-18 avg score. NE went 4-1 being outgained 393-384 but was +9 TO’s for a 30-21 avg score. The Patriots as a whole are on a mission and the playoff sked sets up perfectly being under the radar vs Tebowmania LW and they now get a rematch in front of the fans that booed them 2 years ago. “I’d have been booing us, too, the way we played,” Brady said. “Playing the way we played today, we weren’t going to beat anybody.” I know Brady can beat any def and while BAL’s stop unit looked solid it was vs a rookie QB playing on the road with a 17-3 1Q deficit. The Ravens off LW totaled just 227 yards and 11 FD’s getting TD’s on 2/3pl and 34/5pl “drives”. Don’t discount NE’s D as they’ve played bend but don’t break with their def ypp #2 in the NFL and they’ve had 16 sacks the last 4 games.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 31 BALTIMORE 21

 

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NFL Divisional Playoff Forecasts!

January 14th, 2012 No comments

NFL PLAYOFFS: 3-1 LW!
136-74 65% REGULAR SEASON

 

4 NFC SEMI-FINALS
SATURDAY, JANUARY 14TH
4:30 PM ET FOX

NEW ORLEANS (14-3) AT SAN FRANCISCO (13-3)

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
NEW ORLEANS 108
335
30
1.7
#5
97.7
SAN FRANCISCO
110
253
23
0.8
#1
97.6
Jim Harbaugh followed up leading Stanford to a 12-1 season and its 1st BCS bowl win by taking SF to their 1st NFC West title since 2002. SF is 7-1 at home and while they’ve only outgained foes by an avg of 21 ypg owning an NFL best +19 TO’s has set up a 28-11 avg score. NO beat a very different SF team 25-22 on MNF in Wk 2 LY. SF had a 417-287 yd edge but 4 TO’s killed their momentum as NO hit a 37 yd FG on the final play to win. NO is on the road being +84 ypg (2nd best) but were -7 TO’s. NO has broken the 500 yd mark in 6 gms TY while SF has only tallied 3 games of 400 yds offense. While I would usually pick the team with a strong D at home this NO squad has the potential of making a very impressive SB run. While extra motivation is not needed NO certainly remembers losing to an NFC West tm LY while also knowing that they are only the 2nd ever team to win 13 reg ssn gms and not have a bye.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ORLEANS 30 SAN FRANCISCO 20

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Week 17 NFL Forecasts!

January 1st, 2012 No comments

HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS: 8-5 LW 128-67 66% TY

WASHINGTON AT PHILADELPHIA

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
WASHINGTON 90
133
13
2.6
#25
PHILADELPHIA 158
233
29
1.4
#28
PHI won the 1st meeting 20-13 with a 422-287 yd edge holding WAS to just 5 FD’s and 75 yds in the 1H. Grossman was benched after a brutal 3Q’s with 143 yds (39%) and 4 int’s as the OL was in shambles. Starting with that first PHI game WAS dropped 6 straight avg just 56 ypg rushing and 13 ppg. Since then WAS has beaten SEA and the NYG on the road and while they did lose all 3 home games to the NYJ, NE and MIN they outgained and outFD’d all 3. The Eagles are trying to reach the .500 mark finishing the season with a 4th straight win and they done so in dominating fashion while outgaining those foes by an avg of 348-202. With both teams playing their best ball down the stretch I’ll call for the Eagles to get the win with some positive momentum going into the offseason.

PHIL’S FORECAST: PHILADELPHIA 31 WASHINGTON 27

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Hawaii Bowl Forecast and Week 16 Pro Selections!

December 24th, 2011 No comments

HAWAII BOWL
Saturday, December 24th @ 8:00 p.m.
Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

NEVADA (7-5) VS SOUTHERN MISS (11-2)

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
NEVADA 208
260
25
2.7
-
91.8
SOUTHERN MISS
177
265
31
2.7
…. 89.5
SM is 2-0 vs UN winning a pair of gms in ‘97 and ‘98. The Pack is making its 12th bowl appearance (4-7) and is 2-6 in bowls under Ault. UN is playing in a bowl for a 6th consec ssn (2-4) but did end a 4 gm bowl losing streak LY. The Pack is playing in Honolulu for the 4th straight yr (at UH twice, ‘09 Hawaii Bowl) but the trip to paradise has been anything but as they’ve lost their L/7 gms to UH here (incl LY’s only loss of the ssn) and they were embarrassed by SMU 45-10 in the ‘09 Hawaii Bowl. UN did beat UCF 49-48 in OT in the ‘05 Hawaii Bowl. Normally the CUSA Champ would play in the Liberty Bowl but due to contract issues and bowl obligations, SM will be making its first appearance in the Hawaii Bowl. SM is bowling for a 10th str ssn (1-2 under Fedora who is coaching his last game here) but unlike the L/2Y is off a win. They pulled the upset over Houston (49-28) to earn their 1st CUSA Champ. SM started 1-1 with a conf loss but played as well as any tm in the country for the next 8 wks (8-0 avg win by 21 ppg +122 ypg) and finished the reg ssn with a school record 11 wins (11-2). I think Southern Miss clearly has the better personnel but the Pack will be motivated after recent poor bowl performances. I do like the fact that Fedora is coaching here and I’ll call for the Eagles to notch their 12th win in another Christmas Eve shootout.

PHIL’S FORECAST: SOUTHERN MISS 37 NEVADA 30

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Week 15 Pro Selections!

December 17th, 2011 1 comment
HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS: 10-3 LW 114-56 67% TY

 

WASHINGTON AT NY GIANTS

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
WASHINGTON 105
243
24
2.5
#23
NY GIANTS 93
368
32
1.3
#22
The Redskins upset the Giants 28-14 in the season opener. Grossman hit for 305 yds (62%) with 2 TD’s as while the yardage was even WAS held the Giants to 1-10 on 3D. While I’ll never call the Redskins a letdown spot the Giants are off NO, GB and a SNF game vs DAL and they have the Battle of New York on deck. Both teams have battled attrition especially on the OL and DL which has led to the Skins losing 8 of their L/9 while NY dropped 4 straight prior to DAL. Several factors have me calling for the Skins to keep it close as their offense has adjusted to the injuries and over the last month they’ve avg’d 380 ypg which is their best 4 game stretch TY. The Giants D has been mauled of late allowing 432 ypg but to be fair they have faced the leagues top 4 offenses in the L/5 games. The concern is NY’s pass rush that got 26 sks the first 7 games but has just 7 in the L/5 and WAS’s 3 wins have come when they allowed 1 or fewer sacks. The Giants get another much needed win for a playoff run but it will be tough.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NY GIANTS 20 WASHINGTON 17

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Week 14 Pro Selections

December 11th, 2011 1 comment

HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS: 9-4 LW 95-51 65% TY

 

INDIANAPOLIS AT BALTIMORE

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
INDIANAPOLIS 66
175
9
2.0
#31
BALTIMORE 162
235
32
0.3
#17
Including playoffs the Colts are 7-0 vs the Ravens with a 24-9 avg score. IND finally switched to Orlovsky LW who hit for 89 yds (71%) when NE was up 31-3. NE had 24-8 FD and 345-106 yd edges before giving up 299 yds and 3 TD in the 4Q. IND also replaced DC Larry Coyer and for good reason as they are giving up 144 ypg rushing (4.1). Their #21 pass defense is allowing 243 ypg (72%) with a 21-5 ratio and their 109.3 QBR is worse than HOU’s 100.5 QBR LY. Prior to LW IND only had 1 game decided by 7 or less (TB on MNF). IND does have a bit of a situational edge as BAL has a road game vs SD on Thursday on deck. BAL did get a “needed win vs an inferior foe” and while they clearly have the talent edges here and I’ll call for them by 2 TD’s.

PHIL’S FORECAST: BALTIMORE 31 INDIANAPOLIS 17 Read more…

Week 13 Pro Selections

December 3rd, 2011 1 comment

HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS: 8-3 LW 86-47 65% TY

TENNESSEE AT BUFFALO

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TENNESSEE 108
205
26
1.9
#12
BUFFALO 125
258
23
2.1
#21
The Bills return to Ralph Wilson Stadium for only a second time in their last 7 games. Buffalo has now lost 4 straight after giving up a 77/12pl TD drive with 1:06 LW and now has the psychological disadvantage of having a losing record for the first time TY. Attrition can be blamed on them avg just 285 ypg & 12.5 ppg the L4W as they are #2 in the NFL with 13 players lost to the IR. The Titans continue to live and die by the running game and the 4 times this season when they’ve totalled 90 or more rush yards they’ve gone 4-0 incl Chris Johnson topping 130 yards 2 of the L3W having a ssn high 190 (8.3) vs Tampa. They now face a Bills squad that has allowed 124 ypg and 4.5 ypc rushing on the ssn. The Titans also will get a boost knowing they trail HOU by 2 games with the Texans down to a 3rd string QB and a meeting with them in the season finale. The Titans losses TY have come vs JAX, PIT, HOU, CIN and ATL who came into LW as the NFL’s #3, #2 #1 and #6 overall D while the Falcons were the leagues #2 rushD. Buffalo’s #24 D and #22 rush D come nowhere close.

PHIL’S FORECAST: TENNESSEE 27 BUFFALO 23

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Week 14 Selections for Every Game!

December 2nd, 2011 No comments
Time Game Phil Steele Weekly Poll Computer Pts Computer            +/-
Yds
Gm Grade Vegas
8:00 PM West Virginia at South Florida USF WVU USF WVU USF WVU WVU
By 3 84% 30-28 428-417 By 2 By 0.2 By 1
7:00 PM Ohio vs. Northern Illinois OHIO NIU NIU NIU NIU NIU NIU
By 3 67% 34-33 495-275 By 6 By 2.6 By 3.5
8:00 PM UCLA at Oregon ORE ORE ORE ORE ORE ORE ORE
By 30 100% By 47-14 543-344 By 27 By 22.5 By 31.5
12:00 PM Southern Miss at Houston UH UH UH UH UH UH UH
By 24 97% 50-25 592-393 By 24.25 By 16.5 By 12.5
12:00 PM Syracuse at Pittsburgh PITT PITT PITT PITT PITT PITT PITT
By 24 94% 31-13 417-273 By 17 By 10.1 By 10.5
12:00 PM Connecticut at Cincinnati Cincy Cincy Cincy Cincy Cincy Cincy Cincy
By 14 94% 29-18 467-278 By 8.25 By 12.6 By 9.5
12:30 PM Iowa St at Kansas St K State K State K State K State K State K State K State
By 17 94% 27-14 367-303 By 17.25 By 8.2 By 10.5
2:00 PM Wyoming at Colorado St WYO WYO WYO CSU WYO WYO WYO
By 3 75% 32-19 429-421 By 10.75 By 2.2 By 5.5
2:30 PM UNLV at  TCU TCU TCU TCU TCU TCU TCU TCU
By 45 99% 50-7 520-200 By 41.25 By 36 By 39
3:30 PM  Texas at Baylor Texas BU TIE BU Texas BU BU
By 7 77% 30-30 434-396 By 3 By 2.1 By 2.5
3:30 PM Utah St at New Mexico St USU USU USU USU USU USU USU
By 10 87% 40-25 454-416 By 12 By 11.6 By 13
4:00 PM Georgia vs. LSU LSU LSU LSU LSU LSU LSU LSU
By 7 95% 30-16 315-270 By 14 By 5.6 By 13.5
4:00 PM ULM at FAU FAU ULM ULM ULM ULM ULM ULM
By 1 66% 35-19 363-274 By 12.50 By 12.6 By 7.5
4:00 PM Middle Tennessee at North Texas NT NT NT NT NT NT NT
By 7 73% 34-24 434-416 By 13 By 4.1 By 5.5
4:05 PM Idaho at Nevada NEV NEV NEV NEV NEV NEV NEV
By 25 94% 33-16 552-265 By 17.50 By 24.3 By 20
4:30 PM Troy at Arkansas St Ark St Ark St Ark St Ark St Ark St Ark St Ark St
By 17 88% 40-17 534-293 By 20.50 By 22.1 By 17.5
6:00 PM New Mexico at Boise St Boise Boise Boise Boise Boise Boise Boise
By 45 99% 57-4 573-147 By 51 By 50.4 By 49
7:30 PM Brigham Young at Hawaii BYU BYU BYU BYU BYU BYU BYU
By 17 84% 35-19 420-365 By 15.75 By 3.8 By 7.5
8:00 PM Oklahoma at Oklahoma St OU OKST OKST OKST OKST OKST OKST
By 1 59% 40-32 532-523 By 4.25 By 2.5 By 3.5
8:00 PM Virginia Tech vs. Clemson VT VT VT VT VT VT VT
By 10 70% 37-21 420-360 By 14 By 5.6 By 7
8:00 PM Fresno St at San Diego St SDSU SDSU SDSU SDSU SDSU SDSU SDSU
By 6 86% 32-24 451-411 By 8.75 By 9.8 By 8
8:17 PM Wisconsin vs. Michigan St MSU WISC WISC WISC WISC WISC WISC
By 1 80% 34-26 395-305 By 9 By 7.1 By 9.5
LW 39-15 (72%)
YTD 569-185 (75%)

Week 12 Pro Selections

November 26th, 2011 No comments

HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS: 9-2 LW 87-46 65% TY

 

ARIZONA AT ST LOUIS

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ARIZONA 108
188
18
1.7
#2
ST LOUIS 128
230
15
1.6
#29
The Cardinals were outplayed by the Rams in Bradford’s return from a high ankle sprain getting outgained 400-262 in the 1st matchup TY. Special teams blunders cost STL the game as they had a 42 yd FG blocked on the final play of reg and gave up a 99 yd PR for TD after the 1st drive of OT to lose. This is ARZ’s 4th road game in 5 Wks and they are off their rivalry game vs SF with DAL on deck. The Skelton offense caught up to ARZ LW as they were lucky to be down 9-0 at the half. SF had 12-2 FD and 249-52 yd edges but on 6 drives to the ARZ 31 settled for 3 FG’s missing another 3. This exposed ARZ’s 2 wins for what they were: defense and special teams victories. ARZ has been held to under 100 yds rushing in 5 of their L6 games while giving up an avg of 142 ypg (4.3) in their L6. STL was held to 185 yds LW as they played without both OT’s due to injury after benching their #1 Ctr the week before. SEA’s front 7 stacked up vs Jackson who was held to 42 yds (2.8) and 13 of their first 14 drives ended as a punt or TO. I’ll go with the home team vs an ARZ team that came back to earth LW.

PHIL’S FORECAST: ST LOUIS 23 ARIZONA 17 Read more…