By Phil Steele

We’re starting to wind down our bowl season. Tonight Ole Miss and Pitt square off in the Compass Bowl! Each day there is a bowl I will have a breakdown of the game here on my blog. But if you can’t wait for the actual writeup, make sure you download my FREE Bowl Guide which gives you a glimpse of each game being played this bowl season. The Bowl Guide includes Stat Leaders, Past Meetings, Bowl Records, Game By Game Stats and Previous Bowl Game Results. Everything you need for this post season at your fingertips! Here is the forecast for today’s bowl. Make sure you check back on Saturday for the GoDaddy.com Bowl forecast and download that Bowl Guide today! Read more…

By Phil Steele

NY Jets at Buffalo

Rex Ryan ensured that the Jets would again be on the front page of every NY paper promoting McElroy as the starting QB. He was 14-24 with a 0-1 ratio vs San Diego and his struggles to make the correct reads were obvious as he was sacked 11 times. Now Ryan is going back to Sanchez in this one. These two also faced off in the season opener with the Jets winning 48-28 and after that explosion NY avg’d just 16 ppg the rest of the way. Buffalo is off a loss at Miami and while they only totaled 7 pts they won the yardage battle 381-301 but were -4 TO’s. The Jets know their season is over, they know they’ll have a new OC and DC, they know the roster will be blown up and they now also have to deal with feuding QB’s to split the team even further. The Bills will pounce on the chance to beat the other state of NY AFC team for the first time in 6 tries and a win here would give them a 3rd place finish leaving the Jets in last.
PHIL’S FORECAST: BUFFALO 24 NY JETS 21

Read more…

By Phil Steele

Tennessee at Green Bay

Tough spot for Tennessee off a MN game vs the Jets and now travel to a playoff need GB team in cold weather. Tennessee lost 2 starting OL prior the Jets game and against 3-4 defenses they are 1-4 with the only win vs a tired PIT team travelling on Thursday. GB is 7-0 at home in Dec w/a 37-15 avg score prior to DET and they have a huge edge with Rodgers (255 ypg, 67%, 14-5 at home this year) vs the #18 pass defense w/a 24-10 ratio. I’m not worried about RB Johnson influencing the pace of the game here as GB has only allowed 76 ypg (3.7) vs foes w/a losing record this year. I also like the matchup of Capers w/a defense that is expected to get healthier vs a young QB here. I’ll call for the home team by 17.
PHIL’S FORECAST: GREEN BAY 30 TENNESSEE 13

Read more…

By Phil Steele

Baltimore at Washington

RG3 is off back-to-back nationally televised division games and his combined numbers vs the Cowboys and the Eagles were eye catching (252 ypg, 79%, 8-1) before last week’s 13-21-163 performance vs the Giants. The Ravens make this short trip down I-95 losing a potential AFC North clincher to their rivals and has fallen behind for homefield edge. They will still be looking for Parkway superiority as these players cross paths often. December football brings a different mentality and the Ravens have a veteran team led by a veteran QB who has led his team to 4 road wins this year throwing only 2 int in the L/5 games and has led them to the playoffs in each of his 4 seasons. The Ravens injury maligned D allowed 23 ppg their first 7 but since the bye and the return of Suggs they are #1 in the NFL the L5W allowing only 16.2 and also may see Ray Lewis in some spot duty. This is an example of learning to win versus knowing to win. Read more…

By Phil Steele

Teddy Bridgewater gave a remarkable performance. He was playing with a broken wrist, a sore ankle and looked like he wouldn’t play but trailing 7-0 he came in and finished 20-28-263 and was sacked 3x for 28 yards. He was very mobile but helped Louisville to the win over Rutgers. Two big plays gave RU a 14-3 halftime lead. They got an 85 yd td pass on their first offensive play to Coleman and then after UL got a 20 yd FG with 9:54 left in the 2Q, RU, 2pl later, got a 68 yd td pass to Harrison for their 14-3 lead. In the 1Q UL was SOD at their own 48 but RU was SOD at the UL41. At the half it was 14-3 and UL had a 9-4 FD edge but RU thanks to 2 big plays had a 219-158 yd edge. UL missed a 47 yd FG then drove 90/14pl for a td. RU fmbl’d the KO and UL got a 20 yd td pass on the next play by Bridgewater for the lead, 17-14. Bridgewater was int’d at the RU29 on their next poss with 10:17 left and RU drove 21/7pl for a 38 yd FG to tie. UL got 1 FD and punted with 4:39 left and RU on 3&8 was int’d. After a pen on UL, they started back at the RU40 but got a 30 yd pass and a 29 yd FG with 1:31 left. RU30 got a FD to the 48 but then there was miscommunication and Nova’s deep pass was int’d with no WR around on a diving catch by Floyd at the 18 with 1:06 left and UL got the BCS Bowl berth. Read more…

By Phil Steele

GAMES NOTES:
Akron gave Toledo a game. In fact, leading 3-0 they brought in backup QB Pole on the 3rd series and Pole led them 81/14pl and UA took a 10-0 lead with 14:03 left in the 2Q. The drive began when UT was SOD on 4&2 at their 19. UT went 75/6pl and 85/8pl. Austin Dantin hit a 55 yd td pass to Pasquale and finished 29-35-327 yds. UA answered with an 81/7pl drive for a td with 5:44 left, 17-14. UT punted on their next poss but then took the momentum going 77/5pl for a td with 1:37 left in the half. At the half UT had a 295-257 yd edge. The 3Q opened with 3 punts. UA then went 46/17pl but were SOD on 4&gl from the 16. UT went 51/7pl but was int’d at the UA19 but UT went 62/12pl for a td, 28-17 (9:56) then after an int drove 25/3pl for a td with 8:19 left to go up 18 pts, 35-17. UT fmbl’d a punt with 5:59 left and UA went 45/7pl for a td with 3:30 left but UT rec’d the onside kick, got a FD to the UA36 and took a knee.

Read more…

By Phil Steele

Oakland at Cincinnati

While most homecomings are warm, Carson Palmer’s won’t be after he refused to play for the Bengals giving this veteran a chance to vent his frustrations on the field. The Raiders just faced the rejuvenated Saints and were blown out 38-17 with basically even yardage. They must travel across the country again and while they lost 55-20 they outgained the Ravens 422-419 but were completely done in by Flacco’s play action to Rice as he completed TEN passes of 18+ yards. However, CIN’s rush attack at home is avg 81 ypg (3.4) which will not give Dalton the same benefit. The Bengals are off an upset vs the Giants and off a road win vs a 1-8 squad giving them confidence and I expect this one to go down to the wire as both will give max effort.

Read more…

By Phil Steele

Last week the Top 25 Forecasts went 17-4 81% and on the year they are now 197-42 82%! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week which look to bounce back this week.

For projected box scores and the last 14 years matchups, click here.

Read more…

By Phil Steele

Philadelphia at Washington

For the 3rd yr in a row the Redskins come off the bye week vs PHI. There were hints that teams may have figured out Griffin who was held to 196 ypg vs PIT/CAR (5.2 & 5.5 ypa’s) with just 61 total yards rushing. Both teams employed a power run style to wear down the Redskins defense as they allowed 140 (5.2) and 129 ypg (4.8) on the ground. WAS has struggled to pressure QB’s (#19 w/14) and teams have hit them for a 20-10 ratio so far. While Reid is now clearly on the “hot seat” his best attribute has been preparing his squad to travel on the NFC East road. The offenses are close, my ST rankings also have them close but the biggest difference is in the D. The Eagles stop unit has been bashed and went through a DC change but they are still #11 allowing 344 ypg and their last 6 opponents have offenses that ranked #11, #14, #2, #8, # 5 and #6. Despite being off 5 straight losses a division win can ease the pressure for a day or two and the players may finally reach their potential playing loose. Even if Vick is unable to go a change may not be the worst thing.

Read more…

By Phil Steele

GAMES NOTES:

Toledo had a 526-446 yd edge and benefited from a 3-1 TO edge but still lost to Ball St at home. Toledo had entered the AP Poll for the first time since 2001 and as you see many times, teams that enter the AP for the first time in a long time, usually struggle with the attention that next week. Ball St took their opening 2 drives 82/11 and 87/7pl for td’s to lead 14-0 but UT battled back to 17-17 at the half and had a 350-220 yd edge at the half. UT had settled for a 29 yd FG. BS got a 61/10pl drive for a td to open the 3Q then missed a 35 yd FG and UT went 75/14pl. They settled for a 22 yd FG to make it 24-20. UT went 25/4pl and on 4&1 got a 16 yd td run to lead 27-24. BS tied it on a 30 yd FG with 9:41 left. UT went 68/7pl. After the game, Campbell was questioned for going for it on 4&1 on their next drive as they went 68/7pl and based on them settling for 2 short FG’s and the fact they had a td on the last 4&1, he probably made the right decision but UT was stuffed with 6:02 left. BS then went 86/11pl and got a 13 yd td run with 1:43 left to take the lead 34-27. UT on 4&7 from its own 27 fired incomplete.

Read more…