Super Bowl XLVI Forecast

February 5th, 2012 Phil Steele No comments

	SUPER BOWL XLVI SUNDAY FEBRUARY 5TH 6:30 PM NBC

NY GIANTS (12-7) VS NEW ENGLAND (15-3)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
NY GIANTS	108	328	26	1.6	#25	98.8
NEW ENGLAND	111	258	28	1.7	#5	99.7
GAME OVERVIEW The more things change the more they stay the same for Super Bowl XLVI. Both teams return to the Super Bowl for the 1st time since 2007 looking to cement their status in NFL history. Tom Brady has been the starting QB for NE for 10 years and this will be his 5th Super Bowl. He’s tied Joe Montana’s 16 game postseason victory mark and with a win he’d be tied with Terry Bradshaw and Montana with 4 SB victories. Oddly enough Brady has flown under the radar in 2011 due to the success of other QB’s. He also broke Dan Marino’s yardage barrier this season and his 39 passing TD’s was the 2nd best of his career. This game would redeem Brady’s loss in SB XLII and firmly put him ahead of Peyton Manning in the best of this era conversation in Manning’s own house. Winning SB XLII took Eli Manning out of his brother’s shadow but with a win he’d be ahead of his ailing brother in Championships while giving himself and Tom Coughlin a legit shot at the Hall of Fame. Eli is the 1st NFL QB in history with five road playoff victories. He also has more playoff wins in Giants history than Phil Simms (6). This isn’t much of a surprise as under Coughlin the Giants are 43-27 on the road vs 38-30 at home inc playoffs. The Giants survived a 4 game consecutive losing streak and after missing the playoffs LY despite 10 wins there was serious concerns about Coughlin’s future. Much like 2007, the Giants 38-35 loss to an offensive juggernaut gave them a big confidence boost to fuel their playoff drive. They got healthier as the season went along and played their best ball of the season in the 4 games prior to SF. The Giants can be the 1st 9-7 team to win a Super Bowl. Without a doubt SB XLVI looks to be a great way to cap off what had been a very tenuous 2011 for players and owners over the CBA negotiations. Read more…

Categories: nfl, NFL Picks Tags: 46, blog, college football, Forecasts, New England, nfl, NY Giants, Patriots, phil steele, picks, playoffs, selections, Super Bowl XLVI

AFC/NFC Championship Game Forecasts!

January 22nd, 2012 Phil Steele No comments

NFL PLAYOFFS: 5-3 136-74 65% REGULAR SEASON

	AFC CHAMPIONSHIP SUNDAY, JANUARY 22nd 3:00 PM ET CBS

BALTIMORE (13-4) AT NEW ENGLAND (14-3)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
BALTIMORE	130	215	19	1.8	#25	97.6
NEW ENGLAND	106	335	35	1.2	#6	98.6
Even though they avenged their loss in 2010, the 33-14 home loss in the 2009 Wildcard round still stings the Patriots. BAL was simply the more physical team that day as they dominated all phases. This led to NE altering their offensive package to be 2 TE heavy and more physical. Both teams took advantage of inexperienced QB’s LW’s to advance. NE exerted their will vs DEN (509-252 yd edge) while BAL capitalized on HOU’s mistakes. Seventeen of BAL’s 20 pts were off TO’s with only 2 drives over 40 yds on the day. NE is now 8-1 at home TY outgaining foes by 70 ypg (+7 TO’s) for a 32-18 avg score. BAL went 4-4 on the road w/a +14 ypg mark (-5 TO’s) for a 20-18 avg score. SD, NYJ, PIT, and IND are the common foes with BAL going 4-1 w/a 331-287 yd edge (+6 TO’s) for a 26-18 avg score. NE went 4-1 being outgained 393-384 but was +9 TO’s for a 30-21 avg score. The Patriots as a whole are on a mission and the playoff sked sets up perfectly being under the radar vs Tebowmania LW and they now get a rematch in front of the fans that booed them 2 years ago. “I’d have been booing us, too, the way we played,” Brady said. “Playing the way we played today, we weren’t going to beat anybody.” I know Brady can beat any def and while BAL’s stop unit looked solid it was vs a rookie QB playing on the road with a 17-3 1Q deficit. The Ravens off LW totaled just 227 yards and 11 FD’s getting TD’s on 2/3pl and 34/5pl “drives”. Don’t discount NE’s D as they’ve played bend but don’t break with their def ypp #2 in the NFL and they’ve had 16 sacks the last 4 games.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 31 BALTIMORE 21

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Categories: nfl, NFL Picks Tags: AFC, blog, Championships, college football, Forecasts, NFC, nfl, phil steele, picks, playoffs, selections

Bowl News and Notes Plus Playoff Recaps

January 17th, 2012 Phil Steele No comments

COTTON BOWL Arkansas 29 Kansas St 16 Dome. KSU had a 19-13 FD edge but Ark a 345-260 yd edge. Joe Adams got his 4th PR TD on the yr and this one was 51 yds. AU had their first 11 win season since Lou Holtz’s 1977 team and Frank Broyles only undefeated season at Ark (1964). This was played in Jerry Jones’ (Ark alum) Dallas Cowboys Stadium. AU came in #6 in the BCS and KSU #8. AU’s first FD didn’t come until early 2Q but thanks to the PR TD they led 19-2 with KSU’s 2 pts coming on a blk’d xp ret’d for 2. It was 19-16 late 3Q when AU on 3&9 got a 9 yd td pass, 26-16 (3:57). KSU missed a 43 yd FG with 6:36 left. AU got a 30 yd FG with 3:30 left and KSU got to the AU37 but on 4&16 was int’d at the 25 and ret’d 61 yds.

SUN BOWL Utah 30 Georgia Tech 27 OT GT led Utah 24-10 into the 4Q but UT got td’s with 6:50 and 1:32 left to tie. GT missed a 48 yd FG with :02 left sending it to OT. The first time in the 77 year history of the Sun Bowl it had gone to OT. GT had earlier missed two 40 yd FG’s and GT finished with a 448-337 yd edge and 19-14 FD edge losing their 7th straight bowl appearance while Utah moved to 7-1 in bowls under Whittingham. GT’s Preston Lyons who had just 39 carries on the year, rushed for 138 yds as David Sims was out with an injury and Orwin Smith was banged up. GT got a 74 yd IR TD in the 3Q to go up 24-10. UT converted on 4&3 for their first 4Q TD and opted to punt on 4&3 from their own 25 with 2:48 left but a 31 yd PR set them up at the GT24 and the TD came on a 4&14, 28 yd pass. After GT got a FG in OT, UT on 3&gl from the 8 got an 8 yd td run by White for the win. Read more…

Categories: News & Notes, nfl Tags: blog, bowls, college football, News and Notes, nfl, phil steele, playoffs, recaps

NFL Divisional Playoff Forecasts!

January 14th, 2012 Phil Steele No comments

NFL PLAYOFFS: 3-1 LW! 136-74 65% REGULAR SEASON

	NFC SEMI-FINALS SATURDAY, JANUARY 14TH 4:30 PM ET FOX

NEW ORLEANS (14-3) AT SAN FRANCISCO (13-3)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
NEW ORLEANS	108	335	30	1.7	#5	97.7
SAN FRANCISCO	110	253	23	0.8	#1	97.6
Jim Harbaugh followed up leading Stanford to a 12-1 season and its 1st BCS bowl win by taking SF to their 1st NFC West title since 2002. SF is 7-1 at home and while they’ve only outgained foes by an avg of 21 ypg owning an NFL best +19 TO’s has set up a 28-11 avg score. NO beat a very different SF team 25-22 on MNF in Wk 2 LY. SF had a 417-287 yd edge but 4 TO’s killed their momentum as NO hit a 37 yd FG on the final play to win. NO is on the road being +84 ypg (2nd best) but were -7 TO’s. NO has broken the 500 yd mark in 6 gms TY while SF has only tallied 3 games of 400 yds offense. While I would usually pick the team with a strong D at home this NO squad has the potential of making a very impressive SB run. While extra motivation is not needed NO certainly remembers losing to an NFC West tm LY while also knowing that they are only the 2nd ever team to win 13 reg ssn gms and not have a bye.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ORLEANS 30 SAN FRANCISCO 20

Categories: nfl, NFL Picks Tags: blog, college football, Forecasts, nfl, phil steele, picks, playoffs, selections

GoDaddy Bowl and NFL Wildcard Forecasts

January 8th, 2012 Phil Steele No comments

NFL WILD CARD PLAYOFFS: 2-0 YESTERDAY! 136-74 65% REGULAR SEASON

	NFC WILDCARD SUNDAY JANUARY 8TH 1:00 PM ET FOX

ATLANTA (10-6) VS NY GIANTS (9-7)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
ATLANTA	110	265	23	1.6	#19	98.2
NY GIANTS	91	295	30	1.8	#23	99.5
These teams haven’t met since mid-2009 w/the Giants winning 34-31 in OT. The Giants went 4-4 at home TY w/a +30 yd edge (+3 TO’s) for a 23.3-23.1 avg score. ATL went 4-4 on the road w/a +47 ypg differential (+1 TO’s) getting outscored 23-20. ATL went 2-3 vs the common foes of PHI, SEA, GB, and NO getting outgained by 28 ypg (+2 TO’s) and outscored 31-24 on avg. The Giants earned a 1-4 record w/a -46 ypg margin (-1 TO’s) and was outscored 31-25 on avg. Over the last four weeks, the Giants have the #8 and #16 units (+3 TO’s) vs a good Dallas offense, a tougher than advertised Washington team and a physical Jets defense. Atlanta has the #4 and #17 units (+9 TO’s) but has faced a weak Carolina def, a depleted Jacksonville team, was hammered by New Orleans and beat a Tampa Bay team that quit at Thanksgiving. We now have a dome team in cold weather vs a Giants team playing with confidence with a brutal DL and home crowd. I’m going with the more physical team at home here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NY GIANTS 27 ATLANTA 20

Compass Bowl/FCS Champ/NFL Wildcard Forecasts!

January 7th, 2012 Phil Steele 1 comment

	FCS National Championship Pizza Hut Park Frisco, TX Saturday, January 7th @ 1:00 p.m.

#2 NORTH DAKOTA ST (13-1) VS #1 SAM HOUSTON ST (14-0)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s
NORTH DAKOTA ST	139	130	23	1.7
SAM HOUSTON ST	151	190	22	1.7
This is how the playoffs are supposed to work, with all 4 Top seeds playing in the semi-finals and the #1 & #2 seed playing for the Championship. This is just the third meeting between these teams. The series is tied with the home team winning both by 3. NDSU 41-38 in 2007 despite being outgained 495-414 and giving up a TD with :26 left as they scored their own TD with :07 left for the win. SHSU won 48-45 in 2009 with a 620-419 yd edge winning with a 24yd FG with :26 left. This meeting will be much closer to home for the Bearkats who are playing under 200 miles from home while the Bison must migrate over 1000 miles from the cold North and the comforts of the Fargo Dome, where they hosted all 3 of their playoff wins. Both teams defeated an FBS team this year with NDSU beating Minnesota 37-24 and SHSU beating New Mexico 48-45. Both teams faced Western Illinois. SHSU won 20-6 in the season opener with a 313-216 yd edge but that includes allowing a 92 yd TD pass late 4Q with a 20-0 lead. NDSU won 37-21 with a 363-292 yd edge but did lead 37-7 in the 3Q. The Bison are off a 35-7 win over Georgia Southern with a 451-333 yd edge as the Eagles were forced to abandon their running game after falling behind 20-7 and NDSU score their final TD with just :39 left. The Bearkats faced a Montana team that looked to be peaking in the playoffs with big wins over Central Arkansas (41-14) and Northern Iowa (48-10). SHSU won 31-28 with a 496-380 yd edge. They led 31-14 in the 3Q, before allowing Montana to make the comeback but after a stop, SHSU ran out the final 6 min driving to the UM 15 before taking a knee. NDSU is led by QB Brock Jenson, who is avg 172 ypg (68%) with a 13-3 ratio while rushing for 166 yds (2.5, 8 TD). They feature two RB’s in Sam Ojuri (1078, 6.1, 11 TD) and DJ McNorton (981, 5.1, 13 TD). While top WR Warren Holloway leads with 988 (13.2, 8 TD). NDSU defense is allowing just 13.2 ppg and 324 ypg including 3.6 ypc on the ground. SHSU is led by QB Brian Bell, who is avg 150 ypg (61.8%) with a 20-5 ratio while rushing for 274 (3.5, 6 TD). They also feature 2 RB’s in Tim Flanders (1560, 5.6, 22 TD) and Richard Sincere (965, 8.0, 9 TD). Sincere leads the team in rec yds with 449 (18.0, 4 TD), with Flanders adding 404 (14.4, 2 TD). While top WR Torrance Williams leads with 30 rec (397, 13.2, 3 TD) but also had 269 rush (14.9, 3 TD). SHSU defense is allowing 14.8 ppg and just 283 ypg including just 2.6 ypc on the ground.Both teams have had 3 weeks off and how well the Bison will enjoy the break from the cold in what should be almost 60 degree weather is yet to be seen. The Computer calls for NDSU to pull out a 1 pt despite being outgained 70+ yds. We will go with SHSU to remain the only undefeated team in the FCS.
PHIL’S FORECAST: SAM HOUSTON ST 24 NORTH DAKOTA ST 23

Today’s NFL Divisional Forecasts!

January 15th, 2011 Phil Steele No comments

	AFC SEMI-FINALS SATURDAY JANUARY 15TH 4:30 PM CBS

BALTIMORE RAVENS (13-4) VS PITTSBURGH STEELERS (12-4)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
BALTIMORE	64	163	15	1.6	#12	98.3
PITTSBURGH	98	288	19	1.8	#18	98.7
The Steelers own 19 division titles S/’79 with 4 in the AFC North since realignment. Mike Tomlin’s Steelers are 26-9 at home going 5-3 TY. PIT outgained foes by an avg of 47 ypg (6th) at home TY (+10 TO’s) with a 23.1-16.6 avg score. Counting playoffs, Tomlin is 6-3 vs BAL with a 21-16 avg score. They split the series TY with BAL getting a 17-14 win vs PIT without Roethlisberger in Wk 4. With Roethlisberger, the Steelers came away with a 13-10 win on the road. BAL had a 10-6 lead with 3:00 left but Flacco was sk’d and fmbl’d and it was ret’d to the BAL9. PIT scored 3pl later and forced BAL to go 3&out then ran out the clock. BAL is 6-3 on the road TY where they have outgained foes by 27 ypg (+1 TO’s) with a 22-16 avg score. Read more…

Categories: NFL Picks Tags: Atlanta, Baltimore, blog, college football, Divisional, Green Bay, nfl, phil steele, Pittsburgh, playoffs, selections

Today’s Hunger Bowl/NFL Wildcard Forecasts

January 9th, 2011 Phil Steele No comments

	KRAFT FIGHT HUNGER BOWL 9:00 PM ESPN Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

BOSTON COLLEGE (7-5) VS NEVADA (12-1)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
BOSTON COLLEGE	140	178	20	2.1	•	99.8
NEVADA	236	238	31	1.9	-	94.5
These two are both on hot streaks as Nevada (6) and BC (5) are two of 13 teams in the nation riding win streaks of 5 or more games. The Eagles are 13-8 in bowl gms and are making their 12th consec appearance (Nevada making their 6th str). Nevada is thrilled with their season as they pulled the upset of Cal earlier TY then got the OT win which KO’d Boise from the BCS. BC is disappointed with this season as they struggled at the QB spot, were quickly eliminated from the ACC Atlantic race, and needed to win out to get to the postseason. They relied heavily on a D which was the NCAA’s #1 vs the run and featured the ACC’s best LB corps. UN fans can easily make this trek as San Fran is just over 200 miles away from Reno, while BC fans are notoriously bad travelers. Read more…

Categories: Bowl Projections, College Football Forecasts, NFL Picks Tags: AFC, Baltimore, blog, Boston College, college football, Forecasts, Green Bay, Kansas City, Kraft Fight Hunger, Nevada, NFC, nfl, phil steele, Philadelphia, playoffs, selections, Wildcard

Today’s Compass Bowl/NFL Wildcard Forecasts

January 8th, 2011 Phil Steele No comments

	BBVA COMPASS BOWL 12:00 PM ESPN Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

KENTUCKY (6-6) VS PITTSBURGH (7-5)
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST	A.O.R
KENTUCKY	139	235	25	2.4	-	98.9
PITTSBURGH	186	185	30	1.8	••	101.5
First meeting between these two schools and the main headlines here deal with off the field issues for both teams. UK was hoping for a better (warmer) bowl trip but is making a 5th str bowl trip and is 3-1. Pitt is making their 3rd str bowl trip winning LY’s Car Care over NC, 19-17. UK HC Phillips becomes UK’s first HC to take his tm to a bowl in his 1st yr of coaching. Wannstedt was forced to step down at Pitt but orig said he would coach here only to change his mind and DC Phil Bennett will be the head man here. Pitt did hire Mike Haywood as their new HC only to fire him 3 weeks later after a domestic violence arrest and currently Bennett is the interim. Both teams defeated Louisville with UK having a 466-317 yd edge in a 23-16 win and Pitt having a 255-185 yd edge in a 20-3 win. UK fans travel well especially when the bowl is within driving distance (5.5 hrs) while Pitt fans are not known as good travellers, so this should be a predominantly blue crowd. Read more…

Categories: Bowl Projections, College Bowl Notes, College Football Forecasts, College Football Picks, NFL Picks Tags: blog, bowls, college football, Compass, Indianapolis, Kentucky, New Orleans, nfl, NY Jets, phil steele, Pittsburgh, playoffs, Seattle, Wildcard

FCS Semi-Final Forecasts

December 17th, 2010 Phil Steele 1 comment

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Categories: Bowl Confidence Contest, College Football Forecasts, FCS Tags: blog, Bowl Confidence Contest, bowls, college football, Delaware, Eastern Washington, FCS Forecasts, Georgia Southern, phil steele, playoffs, villanova

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Super Bowl XLVI Forecast

NY GIANTS (12-7) VS NEW ENGLAND (15-3)

AFC/NFC Championship Game Forecasts!

BALTIMORE (13-4) AT NEW ENGLAND (14-3)

PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 31 BALTIMORE 21

Read more…

Bowl News and Notes Plus Playoff Recaps

NFL Divisional Playoff Forecasts!

NEW ORLEANS (14-3) AT SAN FRANCISCO (13-3)

PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ORLEANS 30 SAN FRANCISCO 20

GoDaddy Bowl and NFL Wildcard Forecasts

ATLANTA (10-6) VS NY GIANTS (9-7)

PHIL’S FORECAST: NY GIANTS 27 ATLANTA 20

Read more…

Compass Bowl/FCS Champ/NFL Wildcard Forecasts!

#2 NORTH DAKOTA ST (13-1) VS #1 SAM HOUSTON ST (14-0)

PHIL’S FORECAST: SAM HOUSTON ST 24 NORTH DAKOTA ST 23

Today’s NFL Divisional Forecasts!

BALTIMORE RAVENS (13-4) VS PITTSBURGH STEELERS (12-4)

Today’s Hunger Bowl/NFL Wildcard Forecasts

BOSTON COLLEGE (7-5) VS NEVADA (12-1)

Today’s Compass Bowl/NFL Wildcard Forecasts

KENTUCKY (6-6) VS PITTSBURGH (7-5)

FCS Semi-Final Forecasts

Reminder: Join Phil Steele’s 2010 Bowl Confidence Contest

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NY GIANTS (12-7) VS NEW ENGLAND (15-3)

BALTIMORE (13-4) AT NEW ENGLAND (14-3)

PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 31 BALTIMORE 21

NEW ORLEANS (14-3) AT SAN FRANCISCO (13-3)

PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ORLEANS 30 SAN FRANCISCO 20

ATLANTA (10-6) VS NY GIANTS (9-7)

PHIL’S FORECAST: NY GIANTS 27 ATLANTA 20

#2 NORTH DAKOTA ST (13-1) VS #1 SAM HOUSTON ST (14-0)

PHIL’S FORECAST: SAM HOUSTON ST 24 NORTH DAKOTA ST 23

BALTIMORE RAVENS (13-4) VS PITTSBURGH STEELERS (12-4)

BOSTON COLLEGE (7-5) VS NEVADA (12-1)

KENTUCKY (6-6) VS PITTSBURGH (7-5)

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