Today’s Blog is an in-depth look at who plays the toughest schedule this year and also some of the flaws in the other methods in determining schedule strength.

At the beginning of the season, the NCAA usually releases a rating of each team’s schedule based on their opponents’ win/loss record from the previous season, This is a good method but it does have its obvious flaws.

The first flaw is basing the ratings on opponents records from the previous season. Let’s look at a couple of examples. At the start of 2007 I had Illinois rated as one of the top teams in the Big Ten and they went on to knock off #1 Ohio St and play in the ROSE Bowl. My ratings had them as an above avg opponent at the start of the year and they finished the regular season #13 (AP). Using 2006’s record as the criteria for determining the strength of an opponent’s schedule, however, you would count them as a 2-10 team! In 2008, I had teams like Ole Miss and Minnesota on my Most Improved Teams List meaning I thought they were bowl caliber but using the previous year’s record you would have counted them as 3-9 and 1-11 teams (both made bowls, Ole Miss finished #14). On the flip side of the coin, Notre Dame was in an obvious rebuilding year in ’07 yet was still counted as a 10-3 team if you based strength of schedule on 2006’s record and they were far from a January bowl team in 2007 at just 3-9!

The second flaw is basing it on pure overall records. If a team plays an FCS (IAA) school that was 11-1 in 2007, that counts as a MUCH tougher game in the NCAA ratings than facing a team like Alabama who was 7-6 in ‘07 but #1 at the end of ‘08 regular season! My ratings had Bama ranked as a much tougher team than any FCS foe. To give you an example from 2002, my ratings foresaw that teams playing Kansas St were facing a Top 10 team based on my preseason ratings. The NCAA strength of schedule ranking rated a game against Kansas St as just a game vs a 6-6 opp (2001 record). Kanas St finished #7 AP for 2002 and walloped their opp’s by an avg of 45-12, not exactly numbers from a typical middle-of-the-road opponent.

On the flip side let’s look at 2009’s Ball St team. They were in an obvious rebuilding year and my power ratings had them only winning 2 or 3 games. My methods gave teams credit for a weak foe when facing Ball St but basing it on the previous year’s record, teams were given credit for playing a 12-2 team which is what they finished in 2008! That is a MAJOR flaw!

Here are the NCAA rankings for 2011’s Opponent Winning %

NCAA Method (Opponent Win %)

Now below are my 2010 toughest schedules, which take two major factors into account. The first is my 9 sets of Power Ratings. This ensures that an FCS team is rated much lower than Texas and Georgia, two Top 20 teams that finished with a losing record last year! The second factor is the amount of home and away games played. As an example, this year some teams will have as many as 8 home games, while others play as many as 8 on the road. Below are this year’s toughest schedules rated from the most difficult to the easiest. The toughest schedule this year according to my rankings belongs to Colorado while the easiest belongs to Ohio.

Phil Steele’s 2011 Toughest Schedules

Here are the teams with the biggest discrepancy in the two methods of determining toughest schedule and you can check out each team’s schedules to see which method you think is better. I list the difference in rankings between the two in ( )’s. Most UNDERRATED schedules (teams that face a tougher slate than the NCAA’s % rankings): 1. UCLA (63) 2. Stanford (56) 3. Utah (53) 4. Vanderbilt (39) 5. Maryland (33) 5. Florida St (33) 7. Auburn (30) 7. Rice (30) 9. Georgia Tech (24) 10. Tennessee (23).

Here are the most OVERRATED schedules (teams that face an easier slate than the NCAA’s % rankings): 1. Toledo (50) 2. Army (47) 3. Rutgers (45) 4. Penn St (42) 5. Bowling Green (39) 6. New Mexico (38) 7. Central Michigan (32) 8. UNLV (25) 9. Nebraska (31) 10. SMU (29).

Naturally teams would much rather face a team from a non-BCS conference like Nevada that went 13-1 last year (but does lose Kaepernick) than say a team like Texas that went 5-7 but will ranked this year. Some teams that really will throw off the SOS if you based it on last year’s records are Miami, Oh (10-4 LY) and on the other side of the coin Cincinnati (4-8). I guarantee you when these two meet this year at Miami, Cincy will be a large favorite and LY they beat the RedHawks 45-3. Based only on LY’s record Miami, Oh is a vastly superior squad.

Now let’s pick out some teams to show you the differences between my method and the NCAA’s and you can decide which one you think is more accurate.

Based on 2010’s opponent records Toledo plays the 31st toughest schedule while UCLA takes on an easy #91 slate. UCLA’s “cupcake” #91 schedule features Houston, Texas, Stanford, USC and Arizona St (10 BCS teams total). Toledo’s much “tougher” slate has just ONE AQ and also one FCS team. Put UCLA vs the #31 Toledo schedule and they are thinking double digit wins. Toledo will be lucky to be favored in 8 or 9 games this year vs their #31 schedule but would be favored in ONE game vs UCLA’s #91 schedule. Do you really think Tim Beckman would trade schedules? For the record my SOS has UCLA’s schedule at #28 and Toledo’s at #81.

Here is another example. Based on 2010’s opponent records, Army plays the 49th toughest schedule while Stanford takes on an easy #105 slate. The Cardinal’s “cupcake” schedule features 11 BCS teams including 3 top 25 teams in USC, Oregon and Notre Dame. Army’s much “tougher” schedule has just 3 AQ teams and one FCS team. If you give Stanford the schedule Army plays this year, they would probably be a double digit favorite over every team and a clear favorite to go 12-0 and play for the national title. Meanwhile Army a bowl team from last year might be a favorite in only two games on Stanford’s schedule. For the record I have Stanford’s schedule at #49 while Army’s is #96.

A great example using two BCS teams is according to the 2010’s opponent records Utah faces the 86th toughest schedule while Rutgers faces the 32nd toughest schedule. According to the NCAA’s method, Utah’s schedule which features 6 road games (incl at USC, BYU and Pittsburgh) is much weaker than Rutgers’ schedule which sees them play “only” 4 true road games. Also no one can argue, the Pac-12 is a tougher conference than the Big East.

So which method do you think is better? Respond back with your questions/comments via Facebook or Twitter!

Only 46 Days Until the First College Football Game!!

Today’s blog will continue with my series of analyzing the most/least improved units over the last 20 years. Each day this week I will have a new offensive or defensive statistical category to examine and today I will breakdown total offensive yards.

There are many factors that contribute to a significant change in total offense. First, a team may see a significant improvement if they return a bunch of experienced starters including their quarterback from a team that was relatively inexperienced the year before. Naturally a team that loses a bunch of starters especially their quarterback, running back and receivers from an experienced team will usually see a drop off in total offense.

Another factor may be a coaching change. Usually a coach is more experienced at one side of the ball than the other (especially if they were just a coordinator in their previous job) and this could lead to a change in total offense. An “offensive” minded coach could come in an improve the offense as a whole by possibly being more wide-open offensively while a “defensive” minded coach may be more conservative on the offensive side of the ball and the total offensive ypg could suffer.

Whatever the case may be here are all the teams that improved by at least 125 ypg of total offense compared to the prior season. Quick note for many of the smaller schools in the WAC, MAC and Sun Belt: my data only goes back to 1995 for those teams so it would include the last 15 years instead of the last 20.

Most Improved Total Offense YPG L/20 years

Just like yesterday the 1997 Kentucky Wildcats come in at #1 with a 247 ypg improvement. The Wildcats maintained their 100 ypg rush avg from the year before and improved their passing yards from just 118 ypg in ’96 to 365 ypg in ’97 thanks to new head coach Hal Mumme and his wide-open passing attack.

At #2 is the 1992 Maryland Terrapins who like the Wildcats hired in a new coach (Mark Duffner) and returned 8 starters from a year before. With more reliance on the passing attack (165 ypg-330 ypg) the Terrapins avg 199 ypg more in ’92.

At #3 is the 2000 Northwestern Wildcats who went to a spread formation in head coach Randy Walker’s 2nd season. Led by QB Zak Kustok and RB Damien Anderson, the Wildcats avg 184 ypg more in 2000 and improved from 3-8 to 8-4 while sharing the Big 10 championship.

Now here is a look at all of the teams who averaged at least 125 total offensive yards less than the prior year. Keep in mind again that my data only goes back to 1995 for some of the smaller schools.

Least Improved Total Offense YPG L/20 Years

Coming in with the least improved offense of the last 20 years is the 1993 Pitt Panthers who returned just four starters and lost their starting quarterback from the previous year. They also were learning new schemes under new head coach Johnny Majors and avg 197 ypg less in 1993.

The #2 least improved offense is the 1996 Rutgers Scarlet Knight who returned just 3 starters and featured a new coach in Terry Shea. The Scarlet Knights went from avg 427 ypg in ’95 to just 231 ypg in ’96 a 196 ypg decrease.

Finally at #3 is the 2008 Washington St Cougars who just like Pitt and Rutgers had a new head coach (Paul Wulff) and lost their starting QB and returned just 5 starters. The inexperienced Cougars would avg just 241 ypg which was far less than the 436 ypg they avg in ’07.

Make sure you visit the PhilSteele.com homepage and check out several of the new features added in the past week including Phil Steele Videos, Players Lost for the Season, Facebook Forecasts and a Week-by-Week Schedule complete with up-to-date TV times.

I will be back tomorrow with a look at the most/least improved rush defenses from the last 20 years.

Only 41 Days Until the First College Football Game!!

When it comes to college football, I am a traditionalist.  The one thing I love about college football is of all the sports, college or pro, the regular season in college football is the one that means the most. I also love the rivalries and the tradition of the bowls. While I have been calling for a system that pits the #1 vs #4 and #2 vs #3 teams in the Jan 1 bowls for nearly a decade, I am vehemently against an 8 or 16 team playoff which would destroy the bowls and make the regular season meaningless.

In 1995 I was actually sad to see the SWC fold as I really enjoyed the great tradition and history of that conference.

From the recent news of Nebraska joining the Big Ten and Colorado heading to the Pac-10, it looks like college football re-alignment and expansion is going forward and I think it will move quickly. However, unlike some of the past radical changes to college football, I actually look forward to seeing which programs end up where and I salivate at the possibility of there being multiple super conferences.

As for the Pac-10, I think it is just a matter of time before they announce Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St as new members thus making it the first super conference with 16 teams. I believe the original eight members will represent one division and the Arizona schools along with the new additions will make up the other.

I think the Big Ten will eventually invite Missouri and it will take the Tigers a half a second to say yes, thus giving them 13 teams. Also I have to feel that the Big Ten would like to grab some of the major markets on the east coast, like New York, and getting schools like Pittsburgh and Rutgers would fit that mold.

This brings me to Notre Dame, which clearly values its independence. The only way they make a move to the Big Ten would be if the Big East dissolves. Naturally, the Big Ten wants Notre Dame with a passion and if they were to get a couple of the Big East schools to join, they could force Notre Dame’s hand with the possibility of the dissolution of the Big East.

The SEC will then look to grab some of the best teams in the ACC. Miami and Florida St will be at the top of their list and schools like Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and Clemson should also get consideration.  The Hokies particularly are a very strong program and would be a nice fit in a newly expanded SEC.

This would create three super conferences and the Big East and ACC leftovers would probably join to form a smaller conference.

As for some of the teams left out in the Big 12, my first guess would be that they would join the Mountain West. While I am sure many fans (particularly Kansas) are not thrilled with the possibility of that move, the Mountain West, with the future addition of Boise and perhaps the leftover Big 12 schools would turn into an even stronger conference. They already have three Top 25 regulars in TCU, BYU and Utah.

Without question big changes are coming and it should be a fun month of June for the college football fan!

As for my thoughts concerning the NCAA penalties on USC; I thought it was pretty harsh. While I was not in the meetings to see what the NCAA found, it was not like USC was showering multiple players with gifts to come to USC and play football. It implicated just one player getting involved with an agent after he was already established in school.

With the two-year bowl ban and the loss of 30 scholarships it is a similar case to Miami, Fl in the mid-90’s.  That bad news for Trojan fans is that it took the Canes five to six years to get back to competing for national championships.

In the short-term, I still think the Trojans can be a top team in the Pac-10 this year.  They will take an “us vs them” mentality and will want to show the entire country that they are still a top program. Naturally with the postseason ban for the Trojans my new choice for the Rose Bowl would be Oregon who I had tied for the top of the Pac-10 even before the recent news.

Next year, however, looks troubling for the Trojans as they will start to see a lack of depth with scholarship losses and possible transfers. With smaller recruiting classes the Trojans will struggle to be dominant like they were under former HC Pete Carroll from 2002-’08.

Update: The NCAA just annouced that the juniors and seniors to-be on the football team will be allowed to transfer to other FBS programs without having to sit out a season. Naturally if several players start to transfer, this now could effect USC’s performance this year.

Yesterday we opened the polls on the homepage for you, the fans to vote on each and every conference matchup for six conferences. Last year you guys were more accurate than any other college preview publication and this is a great way for me to gauge how the public views each game. When you vote you have the entire conference schedule in front of you and the home team is capitalized. Get your votes in today and see how the fans think the big games like Oklahoma-Texas, Ohio St at Iowa, Florida St at Miami, Fl and West Virginia at Pittsburgh are going to shake out! To vote you do have register your e-mail address but this is just to make sure there is no stuffing of the ballot box.

Also please check PhilSteele.com everyday to get my Top 30 Countdown, which posted #7 Florida yesterday. Thru June 16th, I will post both magazine pages on a new team ranked in the Top 30 and you can get an early look on how I breakdown your favorite team. Remember those magazine pages are available for only 24 hours for you to download. Today, Boise St comes in at #6.

I will be back tomorrow with my weekend blog.

Only 83 DAYS LEFT UNTIL THE FIRST COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME!!!

The official on sale date for my 2010 College Football Preview was yesterday and if you do not already have a copy, head out to the bookstores and newsstands today. The magazine is available nationwide at Wal-Mart, Barnes & Noble, Waldenbooks, Borders, Hastings, Media Play, Target, Books-A-Million, K-Mart and Circle K. There are other locations where we shipped to, so check the magazine section at stores near you. The cost is just $8.95 in the stores but they tend to fly off the shelves. If you’re having trouble finding a copy visit our store or call 1-866-918-7711 and order your copy thru the office (plus shipping). 

The past few weeks I have been giving you some advanced articles from the magazine to wet your appetite for the upcoming year. Today I will give you the results of the Draft Day Party Hangover, which is on page 308.

After several years of research I have found that almost 7 out of every 10 teams that rank among the top in the NCAA in players drafted struggle the next year and have a weaker record. I call it the Draft Day Party Hangover Effect.

For the system I have created, 7 points are awarded if a player was picked in the 1st round. A 2nd round pick garners 5 points, a 3 round pick four, 4th round three and a 5th round two.  In the NFL there’s not much difference between a 6th or 7th round pick and a high quality undrafted free agent signee so I award 1 point to a 6th or 7th round pick. Using this point system I went back and plugged in the last 13 years’ draftees and found some interesting results. I limited my research to those teams that totaled 12 or more points, which makes them among the best in the NCAA.

I do eliminate a team from my list that totaled 12 or more points if that is less than the previous year’s total. Let’s face it, some programs turn out lots of draft picks every year and 12 is a low total for some teams. If you need more information please refer to pg 308 in this year’s College Preview magazine. 

Over the last 13 years teams that earned more points than the previous year and accumulated….

12 or more points – Weaker or same record 179 of 236 (75.8%)
24 or more points – Weaker or same record 49 of 58 (84.5%)
35 or more points – Weaker record 13 of 15 (86.7%)

With that in mind, this year there were 21 teams that earned 12 points or more from their losses in the NFL draft. Three teams on that list have LESS points than last year in USC (25), Oregon (12), Mississippi (12).

One thing I pointed out in past years is that the National Champ does have a good shot at appearing on these lists. In the past 13 years there have been 14 National Champs (LSU and USC were co-champs in ’03) with 12 of the 14 having earned 12 or more points in the draft the previous year. The only exceptions were ’06 Florida (7 pts) and ’08 Florida (11 pts). The two teams that overcame the biggest draft losses and still managed to win a title were the 2001 Miami Hurricanes, who had 34, and the 1998 Tennessee Volunteers (32). Seven of the 14 actually earned 20 or more points in the draft loss category. Last year’s champion Alabama had 19 points in the draft loss category.

According to past history, in reviewing the 18 teams in the box below, only 4 or 5 will manage to improve their record this year, BUT the National Champ is very likely to be one of the 18 teams on the Draft Day Hangover List.

For 2010, I did make one tweak as Oklahoma came up with 35 but Jermaine Gresham a #1 pick (7 pts) did not play a down so I took his numbers out (see asterisk above).

Please check PhilSteele.com everyday to get my Top 30 Countdown, which posted #9 Miami, Fl yesterday. Thru June 16th, I will post both magazine pages on a new team ranked in the Top 30 and you can get an early look on how I breakdown your favorite team. Remember those magazine pages are available for only 24 hours for you to download. Today, USC comes in at #8.

Only 85 DAYS LEFT UNTIL THE FIRST COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME!!!

There were very few games this week so it wasn’t as tough to earn a Top 20 spot from my computer’s average individual grades as there was only 34 performances to grade. Therefore, I will cut it off at the Top 14 this week.

Alabama’s big 32-13 win over #1 Florida easily gave them the #1 grade for the week as the Tide had a 490-335 yd edge including a 251-88 rush edge. Alabama controlled the line of scrimmage as well as the clock having a 39:37-20:23 edge in TOP as the Tide advanced to the national title game.

Coming in at #2 was Washington’s domination of California as they pounded the lethargic Bears 42-10 with a 167 yd edge.

Wisconsin’s pummeling of Hawaii on the Islands earned them the #3 spot as they won 51-10 with a 340 yard edge. Keep in mind Hawaii was playing to get a bowl bid.

While Oregon only beat Oregon St by 4, they outgained a strong foe by 100 yards at home in Autzen and that earned my computer’s #4 spot.

Despite the Loss, Nebraska earned the #5 spot by holding Texas to just 202 total yds. The Horns came into the game avg 451.6 ypg and the 18 yds rushing by the Horns were their lowest total on the season. The Huskers rattled Colt McCoy with 8 sacks.

At #6 is Texas as they played great defense as well holding the Cornhuskers to just 106 yds and outgained Nebraska by 96 yds.

Georgia Tech ran for 333 yds in their 39-34 win over Clemson in the ACC Championship. to earn the #7 spot. The Yellow Jackets had a 469-414 yd edge and were +2 in TO’s.

Arizona went on the road and beat USC outgaining them by 39 yards and that was good enough for the computer’s #8 ranking this week.

Oregon St despite the loss comes in at #9 as they went into Autzen Stadium and only lost by 4.

While Cincinnati needed a last minute TD to pull out a win over Pittsburgh, they were taking on a top-notch team on the road and it was good enough for my computer’s #10 spot.

Last year it was wildly popular when we had the Bowl Confidence Poll appear on the site and once again this year I’ll be doing that. Due to the fact we will not be having Top 25 forecasts this week, I will have a lot more time to get some different things up so check out my daily blog for the latest bowl action.