In 2008, Alabama was only ranked #24 at the start of the year. They were just 7-6 in 2007, had just 12 returning starters and faced a schedule that had four brutal road games. They had to take on the preseason ACC Title favorite Clemson in Atlanta, take on the defending national champ LSU in Death Valley where they would be sky high for Saban’s return, face the defending SEC East Champ Tennessee in Knoxville AND take on the 2008 preseason #1 team Georgia on the road. That does not sound like the recipe to vault into the Top 10 let alone become the #1 team in the country.

Alabama amazingly went 12-0 and was ranked #1 in the country at the end of the regular season. They had two MAIN factors in their favor that year. Both their offensive and defensive lines made my Top Units List in the front of the magazine and if you are strong along the line of scrimmage you can control many games. Another factor was that they were much better than a 7-6 team in 2007 as all 6 of their losses in ‘07 were by 7 or less points so they were just a handful of plays away from being 13-0. I did a Best Case/Worst Case scenario for each team in the regional magazines, which takes all of the close wins or losses from the previous year and reverses them to see how close a team was to a much stronger or much weaker season.

So which teams for 2009 had 3 or more losses in ‘08 but ALL of them were close losses? There were TWO teams that fell into that category and they were Iowa and Ole Miss. Both teams lost 4 games in ‘08 with Ole Miss losing by 2, 6, 7 and 4 and Iowa losing by 1, 5, 3 and 3. While Ole Miss (#8 Preseason) did not fly under the radar like Alabama in ’08, Iowa was a team that came out of nowhere and started the season 9-0 and ranked #7! Had QB Ricky Stanzi not been injured in the Northwestern game and sat out the next three, Iowa could have finished unbeaten!!

In ’09 there were three teams that suffered three or more losses last year with none of them by more than seven. They were Notre Dame (6), Connecticut (5) and Pittsburgh (3). While Notre Dame and Pittsburgh fell short of my expectations, Connecticut certainly kept the tradition of the close loss factor alive with a surprising season. The Huskies lost five games in ’09 by 4 points or less and last year they returned 16 starters and I thought that it could be Edsall’s best team yet. While I still picked the Huskies to finish #5 in the Big East, my nine sets of power ratings had them going anywhere from 6-6 to 12-0 (yes, I said 12-0!) and I thought they could be a surprise. When the dust settle the Huskies no doubt became one of the surprise teams of the country taking home their first Big East title and BCS Bowl berth.

So who are the teams this year that had three or more losses last year with none of them by more than seven? There were only two and they were San Diego St who lost 4 games by a combined 15 points and Iowa who lost 5 games by 7, 1, 4, 3 and 3 were either tied or ahead in the 4Q in each of the games!

Iowa

In the magazine, I wrote that Iowa’s 58% lettermen returning are fewest in the Big Ten and while this year’s team is not as strong as 2010′s, Ferentz has built a program which consistently overachieves when expectations are low. The Hawks should have better fortune in the close games and could match LY’s 8 wins. After each season is completed I then go over each and every game played for the upcoming year and give my original forecasts and scores for each game. When going through the Hawkeyes’ schedule I actually have them pegged for 9 wins (6 are by 4 or less), which would come as a surprise to many across the country with the loss of so many high profile players. Don’t be surprised if the Hawkeyes are near the top of the Legends division in mid-November (I have them starting 9-1).

San Diego St

The Aztecs went through several gut-wrenching losses last year. They suffered a tough loss vs Missouri when a key penalty was not called on Missouri’s 68 yd td pass with :51 left. Against BYU they had “replay-gate” with a controversial fumble not overturned by BYU replay officials in the booth. They gave TCU their closest regular season game only losing by 5 but did score a couple of td’s in the 4Q to make it closer than what the final indicated. Against Utah they gave up a 47 yd Hail Mary before the half and a blk’d punt that resulted in a 3 yd td drive in a 4 pt loss. This year Brady Hoke leaves for Michigan, however new HC Rocky Long is well versed in MWC football as he was previously the HC at New Mexico from 1998-’08 where he took the Lobos to bowls in 5 of his last 7 seasons and was the DC here the L/2 years. While not as strong as LY’s squad they do only have 3 MWC road games and I will call for a winning season and a 2nd straight bowl game but I am not as confident as the Aztecs being a possible surprise with the coaching change.

Only 6 Days Until the First College Football Game!!!

Each day during bowl season in my daily blog, I will give you my forecasts on the bowl games taking place that day. My forecasts will include a detailed write-up with my computer’s projected box score including rushing and passing yards, points and turnovers along with a detailed write-up on each game.

Please make sure to check PhilSteele.com everyday for complete information and coverage on all the bowl matchups. On the homepage click on the Bowl matchups link, where you will find all 35 bowl games. Click on the bowl logo for each game to get all the information you need to become an expert!

Also I just put up my 2011 NFL Draft Preview with the top 10 prospects at each of the positions. Take a look now to see where your favorite player is ranked and get a sneak peek at who will be taken in the early rounds next April.

	POINSETTIA BOWL 8:00PM ESPN Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

The Bowl confidence contest is under way and Congratulations to the top two players who both have perfect scores thru the first five games with a perfect 165 pts. However many times the players that rank in the top early are those that wagered the most pts and if you are not on the top leaderboard right now, naturally you still have plenty of opportunities to rise up/fall down the standings in the coming weeks.

Last year we expanded the contest to nearly 1200 contestants, which was double from any other previous season and this year we more than doubled the number of contestants with nearly 3000 entries!

So far thru 5 games nearly 300 hundred of the 3000 are a perfect 5 for 5 in picking the winners with the Humanitarian and New Orleans Bowls knocking most people from the ranks of the undefeated.

Top 10 Overall Standings

Last year we had four different radio stations participate with their own groups and this year we expanded to a dozen different groups.

Here are the total number of contestants for the major groups and the current leaders.

WKNR Cleveland, Ohio w/Michael Reghi
(236 Contestants)

WVSP Virginia Beach, Virginia w/Tony Mercurio
(202 Contestants)

STO Cleveland, Ohio w/Bruce Drennan
(172 Contestants)

Erik Kuselias (114 Contestants)

KMBE Houston, Texas w/Charlie Pallilo
(94 Contestants)

WDFN Detroit, Michigan w/Sean Baligian
(53 Contestants)

For complete overall standings or each individual group click here.

A lot of people ask me if I have a favorite team. I was born and raised and still live in Cleveland, Ohio. I was a fan of many teams as a child but now that I put out a National magazine, I cannot afford to be a fan of any team. I have to pick the teams where I think they will finish each year. I was doing a radio show last week and I was asked if I have a favorite team or teams. My response was a strong YES! The interviewer was surprised by that answer and also eager to hear which team I would pick. My answer was my favorite team each year is the team I pick #1 in the magazine and my favorite teams are the ones I have picked higher than all the other major magazines out there. I then said that each year I establish a list of my favorite teams for that year. I then give this list to my wife. I wear a shirt and tie to work every day during the week and my tie is always a college team. I wear polo shirts during the weekend and when not at work and they are always different college teams. The list I give my wife is the ones to buy that I will be wearing for the upcoming year as these are the teams I will be the biggest fan of for the upcoming season. I was then asked “What teams will your wife be buying ties and shirts of this year? That was a great question and I thought I would answer it in a blog.

I went to preseason.stassen.com to find out where all the magazines have everyone ranked for the upcoming year. Here is the list of teams that I will be rooting for the most this year.

First I want to mention that my favorite shirt is naturally the PhilSteele.com shirt that will soon be available for you to purchase on the PhilSteele.com store but you can get a sneak peek at what they look like by clicking here.

Oklahoma-As I said every year the team that is my pick to win the national title is my favorite team of the year and this year that team is the Oklahoma Sooners who I feel are way undervalued. There are numerous reasons that have them pointing for a banner season. Last year, the Sooners lost 42 starts to injury, which was THIRD highest in the country. Also they suffered four close losses, which means they were just a play or two away in each game from having a much better record. Statistically they were the best team in the entire Big 12 as they outgained their opponents by 133 ypg! They also had an inexperienced offensive line and were starting a frosh QB due to injury. Naturally this year they are in much better shape at both those positions. The Sooners this year remind me very much of my 2008 pick to win it all, which was the Florida Gators. Coming into the season Florida was not even favored to win the SEC East as Georgia finished the 2007 season #2 and were returning both QB Stafford and RB Moreno. Meanwhile the Gators were coming off a four-loss season. However, when the dust cleared on the season, Tebow and company delivered for me as they won the national title. I have picked the Big 12 South winner the last 7 years and will be going for 8 this year. Last year during the Red River Shootout, I was decked out in Texas gear including my Longhorn hat as I picked Texas to play for the national title. However this year I hope Bob Stoops can regain his “Big Game Bob” moniker as I will be decked out in Sooners garb all season.

North Texas-The Mean Green made my most improved list so you knew I was rooting for them right from the start. Over the past 12 years of all the teams that had losing records the previous year, only 20% improve to bowl eligibility the next year. The last two years my Most Improved list has had 69% of the teams go from a losing record to bowl eligibility! Most magazines look at the past performances for North Texas (2-20 last 5 years in the Sun Belt) and pick them 8th in the SBC or 2nd last. Every year is a new year and I think this is the season it all falls into place for NT and I have them THIRD in the Sun Belt! Get me those North Texas polo shirts and ties as I will be rooting for North Texas every week this season!

California - The Bears have been disappointing fans for years. Last year Cal opened the year #12 in the polls and finished unranked and a disappointing 8-5 including a bowl loss to Utah and a blowout 42-10 loss to Washington in their last 2 games. In 2007 they were #12 and finished unranked and just 7-6 needing a bowl comeback win to avoid a losing season. This year writers have thrown Cal in the trash can and they are primarily picked 7th or 8th in the very competitive Pac 10. I have them tied for 3rd! Cal does have the benefit of only 4 Pac 10 road games and one of those is against Wash St meaning most of their winnable games are at home. Both their offensive and defensive lines rank in my top units and I will be rooting for the Golden Bears almost every week this season!

Western Michigan – Bill Cubit is one of the most underrated coaches in the country and I think this year he ends up MAC coach of the year and some smart BCS school snatches him up. Most people when they look at a team look at last years record (5-7) and if the QB and top RB are returning. WM loses both QB Hiller and RB West (1164 yards) and if that is how you rate a team you will not be very high on WM this year. I look at a team that was wiped out on defense last year due to graduation and now has a much more experienced group on that side of the ball. I like the replacements at QB and RB and they are talented at WR and the offensive line. Most have Western finishing FOURTH in the MAC West while I have them playing in the MAC title game. I was an Ohio Bobcat fan last year and they did not disappoint, no doubt I am a huge Broncos fan this year!

USF – USF has been the poster child for an underachieving team the last few years. They have reached the top 10 in both 2007 and 2008 but finished each year unranked. Last year they were an average 8-5 team and they are just 5-9 in Big East play the last two years. The other magazines must be bitter about those finishes as they have pegged them 6th this year despite the fact they return 15 starters including QB BJ Daniels. Remember last year they opened 5-0 despite losing their starting QB Grothe to injury in week 3. The biggest news this year is that Skip Holtz takes over as head coach. The last two years he has had only the 3rd or 4th most talented team in CUSA but has a pair of CUSA championship rings! He gets the most out of the talent on hand and inherits a very talented team. I have them pegged to finish in a tie for 3rd and consider them a Big East title contender this year. I already have a South Florida tie, so I guess I will just pick up a polo shirt this year.

UAB – When Neil Calloway took over he had a scholarship depleted team and were an easy pick for me as I picked them last in the CUSA East and they were 1-7 and landed right there. Calloway has done a solid job the last two years getting the team to go 7-9 in conference play and this year is finally up to scholarship limits and has 16 returning starters to boot. Joe Webb their outstanding QB is gone but that is the only position that is weaker this year. Most magazines have them 5th or 6th but I have them in a tie for 3rd in the CUSA East. This will be the first time in a long time I will be
rooting for the Blazers but I have to think their logos on the Polo shirt would be pretty cool with the Dragon breathing fire, so that should be a good shirt to add to the collection.

Arizona – Last year Arizona was on this list but after checking my closet, I did not get Wildcat polo. Last year Arizona was picked 5th by Lindy’s, 6th by USA Today and EIGHTH by Athlon and The Sporting News and I had them tied for 3rd. Arizona finished tied for 2nd so I was very pleased. Rarely do I get the chance to root for the same team two straight years. This year I picked them tied for third in the Pac 10 again but the other publications have them 5th, 6th or even 7th (Blue Ribbon). Only one source in the country has Arizona RANKED this year and that is my magazine and I consider them a Pac-10 title contender. It is time to get that Wildcat shirt this year!

Miami, Fl- The Hurricanes are my pick to not only win the ACC Coastal this year but they are my favorite to win the overall ACC Title! I have the Canes ranked #9 in the country while other magazines such as Lindy’s, Blue Ribbon and USA Today all picked them to finish as low as 4th in their division!

Penn St-I have the Nittany Lions picked to finish tied for 2nd this year while everyone else has them 4th. I already have a Penn St tie but this year I think it’s time to finally get that polo shirt.

Maryland-Last year I was rooting against Maryland on a weekly basis. Despite coming off an 8 win season that included a bowl win, I picked the Terps to finish in last place which is precisely where they ended up. This year they are in much better shape and make my most improved list. While the Terps are the sheik pick to finish 6th again, I have them rated higher and will be a big fan of them this year in stark contrast to last season.

Michigan-Like I said earlier, I have no allegiances to any team other than where my magazine predicts them. While I have been born and raised in the state of Ohio my entire life and as a child rooted for Ohio St, this year the Wolverines make my most improved list and I have them playing in the Gator Bowl against LSU. While I have the Wolverines picked to finish tied for 5th, other magazines like Athlon and Sporting News have them picked 8th. I will have no trouble rooting for Michigan in most games this year.

Colorado-My first impression of the Buffaloes this year was to pick them to finish 6th in the Big 12 North as they were one of the few teams to make my most improved list but did not go to a bowl as they finished a pathetic 3-9. However, that was my mindset when I started but after compiling all of my research in May, I think they have the most improved OL in the country and will make a bowl this year.  I have them picked to finish 4th which is far higher than most of the other magazines. I already have a Colorado polo shirt, now it’s time to get a tie!

Auburn-After I finish writing my magazine in May, I go thru every game of the upcoming season and figure out who I think will be the favorite/dog in each game. After finishing Auburn’s schedule I did not have the Tigers as an underdog in any of their first 11 games (2 pick-ems)!  While Auburn is picked to finish 3, 4 or 5 by most magazines this year, I have them picked 2nd in the SEC West thanks to a great SEC schedule. Surprisingly I have no Auburn polo shirts and I definitely think it’s time to pick one up this year!

Ball St-The Cardinals are another team that I rooted against last year, but this year will be rooting heavily for.  In 2008, the Cards finished the regular season at 12-0 but the following year, I picked them 5th in the MAC West which is where they ended up. Last year they were very inexperienced and had a new coach. This year they have 19 returning starters and while Stan Parrish’s 4-41-1 overall record as head coach gets a lot of publicity, I think a lot of it is due to mitigating circumstances. I do feel Parrish is a quality coach and will get the most out of his team this year. While most magazines have them picked to finish 5th again, I have them tied for 3rd!

Kent St-Last year the Golden Flashes came close to being a bowl eligible squad as they suffered 3 close losses. This year they get back RB Eugene Jarvis who I am a big fan of and I will call for them to finally break thru as I have them ranked #11 on my most improved list.

Baylor-The Bears have not been to a bowl game since 1994 and this year they make my most improved list (losing season to bowl eligibility). Naturally, I will be rooting for them very hard this year!

Fresno St-Last year the Bulldogs could have beaten both Wisconsin and Cincinnati on the road. While I don’t think they will win at Boise this year, they could upset Nevada at home. I have them tied for 2nd in the WAC which is higher than all the other preseason magazines as the Sporting News and Gold Sheet both have them tied for 5th.

San Diego St-The Aztecs make my most improved list (#6) and have one of the best coaching staffs in the country. This year I think QB Lindley will be more comfortable behind center as the Aztecs make their first bowl game since 1998!

West Virginia-This year I have the Mountaineers tied for first in the Big East which is higher than most of the other preseason magazines. I already have my West Virginia shirt that I wear all the time and this year I will be wearing it some more!

Only 21 Days Until the First College Football Game!

My 2010 College Football Preview Magazine has so much information in it that it would take months to go thru it all. It is like 120 media guides rolled into one. 

Magazine is a loose term for it as the Preview is more like a book with over 100 pages more than any other college football magazine. Not only does it have more pages but the magazine has 2 to 3 times the amount of information on each page! That gives my magazine 3 to 4 times the amount of information of any other magazine!

I mention all of this because there are even parts of the magazine that I myself forget about during the year. Every spring once I have finished my conference write ups, Top 40, All-American and All-Conference Teams I wrap up the “other” pages in the magazine. One of those pages that I find a lot of fun is the projected stats which is on page 324 and 327.

I have in-depth power ratings which rates each team’s rush offense, pass offense and points scored as well as all three categories for the defense. I have my computer match up each team vs all of their opponents and play the games out during the year. These projected statistics are not some random number I throw into the back of the magazine to fill up space (I never have ANYTHING in the magazine that is used for filler!). They take into account this year’s team vs this year’s schedule and they are remarkably accurate.

Let me give you a few examples from last year: 

North Texas allowed 47.6 ppg on defense in 2008. When I threw their numbers into my computer in the spring of 2009, my computer said that North Texas would make great strides and allow just 32.4 ppg in 2009 and they were my #1 Most Improved Team in Def PPG. When the dust cleared from the 2009 season North Texas allowed 35.6 ppg, a 12 ppg improvement which easily was one of the best in the country.

On the offensive side, Michigan avg just 20.3 ppg in 2008. In 2009 the Wolverines were in their 2nd year of Rich Rodriguez’s spread offense and they brought in two super frosh QB’s who were better adept at running the ball. In the spring, my computer took those factors in account and projected the Wolverines to avg. 30.5 ppg in ’09 which ranked as my Most Improved PPG in the country! Even though Michigan finished just 5-7 last year, their offense improved dramatically and avg 29.5 ppg which was just 1 ppg off of my computer’s projection that was made months in advance!

I could go on and on with the examples because I find projecting statistics as fascinating as projecting wins and losses. If you check out pages 324 and 327 you will get my complete statistical projection for each team in both yards and points for the year.

Also if you need a complete breakdown of the accuracy of my computer’s projections for Most Improved Teams check out my February 17-March 1 blogs (in the archives) and you will be amazed at how close my computer projects the most improved and least improved teams in several categories.

Here are the Top 15 Offenses this year in “Most Improved Points Scored.”

Most Improved Offensive PPG

Most Improved Defensive PPG

My Top 30 Countdown concludes today with #1 Oklahoma, which is a surprise to many across the country. Click on the link (on the homepage) to download both magazine pages to get my reasons why they are #1. Remember those magazine pages are available for only 24 hours for you to download.

Only 78 DAYS LEFT UNTIL THE FIRST COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME!!

In my 2009 College Preview Magazine on pgs 324 and 327 I included my computer’s projected stats in 2009 for all 120 FBS teams. There were several different categories including rush offense/defense, pass offense/defense, offensive pts and defensive pts.

On the right hand side of the page I listed the teams that my computer projected to be most improved in ’09 compared to ’08 season in 6 different categories. I had them ranked in order from Most Improved all the way down to the Least Improved and included the top 15 in each category along with the bottom 5.

In today’s blog I have included my projections of the teams I thought would be most improved in rush defense heading into the 2009 season and how they finished in the final NCAA rankings.

In the coming days I will feature a different category in each blog and I think you will be impressed with the results of the accuracy of my projections.

Most Improved Rush Defense 2009

Preseason Projection

Final Rankings

As you can see my projections were pretty close. I nailed 4 of the top 5 most improved teams and 11 of my top 15 teams finished #29 or better! 13 of my 15 teams (86.7%) saw their rush defense ypg decrease and on avg my top 15 improved by 40 ypg in ’09!

My bottom 5 results were just as accurate. All 5 of my projected bottom teams in rush defense saw their ypg increase in ’09 and all 5 of the teams finished 73rd or worse! 3 of my projected preseason teams finished in the bottom 7 and on average the 5 teams had a rush defense increase of 47.4 ypg in ’09!

Going into the season I thought San Diego St would have the most improved rush defense thanks to an amazing hire in Rocky Long as their DC. Long knew the MWC inside and out and produced top notch D’s every year as the Lobos HC. In 2009 under the tutelage of Long, the Aztecs saw their rush defense decrease by 82 ypg which was good enough for #5 in the country.

Kansas St had 8 starters back on defense and welcomed back Bill Snyder who accomplished the greatest rebuilding job in college football history in his 1st stint in Manhattan. I thought the Wildcats would be the 2nd most improved team in rush defense and the Wildcats didn’t disapoint allowing 112.3 ypg less in ’09 which ranked #1.

In 2009 new Washington HC Steve Sarkisian was surprisingly able to hire Nick Holt as the DC. Holt was the HC at Idaho from 2004-’05 and left to return to USC as the DC the last two years. In the magazine I predicted that the Huskies were arguably the Most Improved Team in the country but their tough schedule would probably prevent them from going to a bowl. One of the areas I thought the Huskies would be most improved in was rush defense where I had them ranked #3 and that projection turned out to be dead on as Washington finished #3 with a 91.8 ypg improvement in 09.

Western Kentucky returned only 4 starters on defense and I thought the 2009 season would be a true transition year into the SBC for the Hilltoppers as they finished 0-12. Coming into the season I thought WKU would have the least improved rush defense and unfortunately for them my projection was very close as they finished #119 allowing 82.4 ypg more in ’09.

Overall 18 of the 20 teams (90%) that were featured in my magazine finished with either a higher ypg or lower ypg just as I projected!

Complete List of all 120 Teams