A couple of weeks ago I gave you the odds to win the 2011 National Championship courtesy of Bodog.com. In today’s blog I will give you the Hilton’s updated NC odds plus the Hilton has just released their odds to win next year’s AFC/NFC championship plus Super Bowl XLVI.

If you are in Las Vegas at anytime in the next couple of months make sure to stay at the Hilton to get advanced odds on the 2011 college football season and advanced odds on the NFL.

Also make sure you are checking out my updated 2011 Draft Preview with a Top 10 position by position outlook and the top performers at each position during each drill at the combine.

Don’t forget to check out our Spring Central section to get 2011 schedules, coaching changes, who’s back/who’s not and all the NFL Draft early entrants.

Hilton Odds to Win 2012 Super Bowl
XLVI @ Lucas Oil Stadium-Indianapolis, IN
Sunday, February 5, 2012

Hilton Odds to Win 2012 BCS National Championship
Louisiana Superdome–New Orleans, Louisiana
Monday, January 9, 2012

Let’s take a look at some interesting situations about Super Bowl matchups.

THE LOWEST SEEDED TEAMS EVER! The play-offs expanded in 1990 and the NFL seeded teams 1 thru 6. This year is only the second time in 13 years that a #1 seed has failed to make the Super Bowl and the only time with a matchup between the #2 and #6 seeds. A team ranked as the #5 or #6 seed has only reached the SB twice but they did win both times as Giants (#5) beat the Patriots (#1) in Super Bowl 42 and Pittsburgh (#6) beat Seattle (#1) in Super Bowl 40.

What is the outcome when a road team and a home team advance from the Conference Championships? Prior to this year in the last 4 seasons 7 of the 8 teams that advanced to the Super Bowl won at home in the Conf Championships. If I go back further and look at the last 10 seasons there have been 7 occurrences in which a team that won on the road faced a team that won at home. Surprisingly 6 of the 7 teams that won the Conf Championship on the road went on to win the SB. FYI: Since the expanded play-offs in 1990 only twice have both Conf Champ road teams gone onto play in the SB (‘92 & ‘97 seasons).

How do teams perform if they’ve appeared in the Super Bowl in the last 2 seasons? A team is certainly among the leagues elite is they are making a second SB appearance within 3 years. Pittsburgh of course beat Arizona after the 2008 season. Here are the most recent teams that are making a repeat appearance in a 3 year span (PIT TY, NE in ‘05, NE in ‘04, STL in ‘00, DEN in ‘99, GB in ‘98, DAL in ‘96). Of the 6 teams S/1995 they have gone 4-2 when making a 2nd SB appearance in a 3 yr span.

Thinking about a record? The most combined total points in a Super Bowls came in SB29 as SF and SD combined for 75 pts followed by 69 total pts twice as Dallas defeated Buffalo and TB beat Oakland. The fewest points scored all were prior to 1975 as Pittsburgh and Minnesota combined for 22 points in SB9 while Miami and Washington combined for 21 points in SB7. In the 35 years since, the 2 lowest scoring SB’s have occurred in the last 5 years as the NYG beat NE 17-14 and Pittsburgh beat SEA 21-10.

THE FINAL CAN BE DECEIVING Both the Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers played similar games last week as they jumped out to halftime leads and held on to win the game. Let’s compare halftime numbers. Green Bay led Chicago 14-0 as the half with 17-6 FD and 252-103 yard edges. Pittsburgh meanwhile led the NYJ 24-3 at halftime with 16-5 FD and a 231-50 yard edges.

Quick starts? The final thing I’ll look at is how teams have started and scored in the 1Q. It has been slow going as in the last 12 Super Bowls only ONCE have the teams combined for over 10 total points in the opening period. When Indianapolis met Chicago 4 years ago the Bears led 14-6 after 1Q but were outscored 23-3 the rest of the way. Five times in the last 11 years there has been a 3-0 score after 1Q and twice the teams have failed to score.

Let’s take at look at the combined scoring for each quarter the last 5 SB’s. There is no surprise that the 4Q has been the highest scoring as the teams have totaled 73 pts. The teams have combined to score 51 points in the 2Q followed by 43 pts in the 3Q and the opening quarter has been the lowest scoring over the last 5 SB’s as the teams have scored a combined 39 points. In the last 12 SB’s the 2H has been the higher scoring half 11 of 12 times.

Last night the New Orleans Saints won their 1st Super Bowl in franchise history defeating the Indianapolis Colts 31-17 in Super Bowl XLIV. The Saints became the 1st team since the 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win a Super Bowl in their 1st appearance and just the 5th team to win one in their 1st appearance against a franchise with multiple appearances (5-15). QB Drew Brees completed 32 of 39 passes (82.1) for 288 yards and 2 TDs to tie the Super Bowl record for completions and won the game’s MVP honors.

KEY PLAY OF THE GAME – Late in the 4Q with the Colts driving for the game tying TD, Manning fired a pass to WR Wayne on a routine slant pattern that the Colts run several times every game. However, Saints DB Tracy Porter stepped in front of Wayne, gathered the ball in and raced 74 yards for a TD giving the Saints an insurmountable 31-17 lead with just 3:12 left.

A COUPLE OF OTHER KEY PLAYS – With the Colts leading 10-3 in the 2Q and facing a 3rd down, Manning threw a great pass to WR Garcon that could have gone for 30+ yds into Saints territory but Garcon dropped it and Indianapolis had to punt. Counting halftime, Manning wouldn’t attempt another pass for more than 70 minutes!

Late in the 1H after stopping the Saints on 4th and goal from the 1, the Colts faced a 3rd and 1 at their own 10, but were stuffed at the LOS. After a punt the Saints took advantage of the great field position and K Hartley drilled a 44 yd FG as time ran out to make it 10-6 at the half. The FG made up for the Saints missed opportunity on the previous drive.

On the 2H opening KO, Saints HC Payton called for an onside kick and after a mad scramble for the ball the Saints recovered. Payton’s gamble paid off later in the drive when RB Thomas caught a 16-yd screen pass for a TD and the Saints had their 1st lead of the game 13-10 (11:41 3Q). It was the 1st onside kick in SB history that didn’t occur in the 4Q.

After the Saints scored a TD with 5:42 left to make it 22-17, the Saints went for 2. WR Lance Moore had the ball in his grasp over the goal line momentarily before it came loose. The play was called incomplete, but HC Payton challenged the call and replays showed the catch was good for a 2-pt conversion, and the Saints had a 7-pt lead.

SAINTS OUTGAINED 907-589 COMBINED IN LAST TWO GAMES OF YEAR BUT WIN BOTH! – In the NFC championship game 2 weeks ago New Orleans won 31-28 in OT despite being outgained 475-257 by Minnesota. The Vikings had 5 TOs to the Saints 1 and despite playing on the road in front of one of the loudest crowds ever, had a chance to win late in the 4Q but got penalized for too many men in the huddle. That penalty forced the Vikings into a passing situation on 3rd to get into FG range only to have Favre throw an INT on the next play. The Saints won the coin toss in OT and scored the game-winning FG. Some argue that if the game were played on a neutral field, the Vikings would have won and many still feel that they are the better team!

Last night the Colts had a 432-332 advantage but blew several scoring opportunities.  1st with the Colts leading 10-3 WR Garcon dropped a key 3rd down pass that could have gone for big yardage and set them up in at least FG range. In the 2H, after converting a 4th down, a Colts drive stalled and K Stover missed a 51-yd FG. Then with 1:00 remaining, Indianapolis drove down inside the Saints 5 but questionable clock management and play calling led to them failing on 4th down and the Saints just took a knee to end the game.

MANNING MAKES NFL HISTORY DESPITE THE LOSS- QB Manning hit 31 of 45 passes (68.9) for 333 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT.  Despite the loss, Manning did become the 3rd QB in postseason history to surpass 5,000 passing yards and now only trails Brett Favre (5,855) and Joe Montana (5,772). There was some talk before the game that with a win Manning would now be in the “Best QB Ever” discussion. However with the loss and the key play being his costly INT, that talk will have to wait for now.

SUPER BOWL MVPs NO PROBLEM FOR NEW ORLEANS -In beating Manning, the Saints became the first team to beat three consecutive Super Bowl MVPs. They beat Kurt Warner (Arizona) in the divisional round, Brett Favre (Minnesota) in the NFC Championship Game and Manning (Indianapolis) last night.

AINTS NO MORE! – New Orleans known for being one of the NFL’s worst franchises for many years won 3 postseason games this year after winning only 2 in the previous 42 years combined! They beat Arizona, Minnesota and Indianapolis all division winners for their first title, outscoring them 107-59.

REDSKINS HAVE COMPANY-There haven’t been many large come from behind wins in SB history. The largest deficit occurred back in Super Bowl 22 with the Washington Redskins overcoming a 10-0 deficit to defeat the Denver Broncos 42-10. Last night the Saints after falling behind 10-0 outscored the Colts 31-7 in the final 3 quarters in the 31-17 win.

HARTLEY THE HERO! -New Orleans K Garrett Hartley the hero of the NFC Championship game with his game winning 40-yd kick in OT became the 1st kicker in SB history to make 3 40+ yd FGs (46, 44 and 47).  Coming into the game Hartley only had 26 career attempts while Indianapolis K Matt Stover had 569!

There are many things that make the Super Bowl more than just a football game. From the funny commercials to the elaborate halftime show, everyone even non-football fans have interest in some way. The Super Bowl also gives you the chance to bet on several hundred different intangibles and situations that range anywhere from the coin toss to how many players will score for each team. Here are some of the crazy things that people can bet on during the Super Bowl and how they did.

6:00 ET • CBS

GAME OVERVIEW

The NFL has been transitioning to feature offenses since the success of the 1999 Rams and New Orleans will now be rewarded for it. The old phrase of “defense wins championships” isn’t as iron clad as it used to be despite the success of the Jets in 2009. There were an NFL record nine QB’s with 4,000+ yds passing this year with Manning being #2 and Brees #6. This is the biggest QB matchup since Elway faced Favre in Super Bowl 32. Manning’s Colts are led by Jim Caldwell who is the 6th rookie HC to reach the Super Bowl and the 1st since 2002. This is also the 1st time since 1993 that the #1 seeds in both conferences have reached the Super Bowl. Indianapolis won the Lombardi Trophy just 3 years ago in Miami vs Chicago who had beaten Drew Brees’ Saints in the NFC Championship. The Saints are enjoying their 1st Super Bowl in franchise history. They have become the embodiment of the city of New Orleans and the local areas that are still rebuilding from Hurricane Katrina. The story of Archie Manning who was THE star player as a QB for a string of bad Saints teams will also be put in the spotlight as well the impact of his 2 sons. This could be the final game for vaunted Colts coaches Tom Moore (OC) and Howard Mudd (OL coach) who almost retired before the draft but Peyton personally lobbied for their return. Bolstered by a slew of passing records and statistics, a Super Bowl win here would move Manning from the “best QB in the NFL right now” discussion to the “best QB ever.” Drew Brees deserves a huge amount of credit for being the cornerstone of turning around the Saints’ franchise. The impact of DC Gregg Williams on a Saints defense which plays better than its #25 ranking, due to 39 takeaways, should also be front and center. Indianapolis is viewed as the favorite due to their playoff experience and the fact they beat the #3 and #1 defenses back-to-back. New Orleans throttled an undermanned Arizona team and despite being outgained 475-257 advanced due to Minnesota turning the ball over 5 times on 13 drives.

PLAYOFF EXPERIENCE

The Colts are strong believers in continuity and character which has enabled them to reach the playoffs every year since 2002. Indy is 9-8 with Manning at the helm in the playoffs. The Colts have 25 players who played in Super Bowl 41 and are even staying in the same hotel so they will be very well prepared to deal with the media onslaught. With this Super Bowl being in Miami the Colts will be very familiar with the hotels, practice arrangements and media areas. Both teams have 7 Pro Bowlers and while none of the 14 players will play they all had to make the trip to Miami the week prior for the actual game and stayed in Miami. Indy has 7 offensive and 5 defensive starters who played in Super Bowl 41 with LT Charlie Johnson being the #3 OT in the game. Brees has played in 5 playoff games but has no SB experience. New Orleans has 6 offensive and 3 defensive starters who played vs the Bears in the 2006 NFC Championship. The Saints have 3 players with SB experience with FS Sharper (‘97 Green Bay), CB Gay (‘04 and ‘07 New England), FB Eckel (‘07 New England) and while Shockey was on the ‘07 New York Giant team he was hurt and didn’t play. This is one of the largest edges in playoff/SB experience in recent memory.

LARGE EDGE: COLTS

TURF/SITE

This is an NFL record 10th Super Bowl being hosted in South Florida and the 5th in this building (KR for TD in all 4). Sun Life Stadium is a 76,500 seat venue with a natural grass surface. Both teams are speed oriented and the defenses will be slowed down some the grass which will benefit the QB’s. The Saints played here Oct 25th and will be used to the sight lines but many of the Colts’ players were involved in the rainy night game of Super Bowl 41. The NFL spares no expense to ensure a quality playing surface however they could be hard pressed to provide one with the Pro Bowl being played 7 days prior. Normally the NFL imports a grass field called Princess 77 for the game costing over $500,000 to install and it gets a month to grow in before its played on. Unlike last year where a large amount of Pittsburgh fans made the trip neither franchise is known for its fans travelling. Both teams will be allotted 17.5% of the tickets. One third goes to season ticket holders in a lottery system, one third to suite owners and the rest to the players, coaches and staff. The team hosting the event gets 5% of the tickets, 30% is shared by the other 30 NFL teams with the league retaining 30% for sponsors and promotions. The avg ticket price for SB XLIV on the resale market was $2,799 prior to the Championship games.

EDGE: NONE

SAINTS #1 OFFENSE VS COLTS #18 DEFENSE

The Saints offense starts with Drew Brees who is a perfect match for Sean Payton’s offensive system. Brees is a rhythm QB who gets better with momentum making those first 15 scripted plays crucial. Minus the QB rush attempts New Orleans was a 55/45 pass vs run team in 2009. Payton is a very innovative play caller and the New Orleans system spreads the ball around to various players diffusing opposing defenses. The Saints have 7 players with 35 or more rec’s and 10 players with 1 TD catch. Brees favorite target is Colston and he has logged 1,000 yds receiving in 3 of the last 4 years. Henderson is the possession WR and 33 of his 54 rec’s have gone for first down. Despite Brees coming so close to Marino’s single season passing record in 2008 the offense didn’t really click until this year with a healthy Shockey to exploit the seams in the middle of defenses. Meachem finally came into his own this year as a big play WR (1 TD every 5 rec’s) who is able to stretch the field (16.0 ypc is 9th). The 2nd biggest improvement for the Saints this year was their run game which avg’d 100 ypg (4.0) last year improving to 132 ypg (4.5) this year (6th). All 3 RB’s were hit with injuries this year with Thomas missing 2.5 games due to bruised ribs. However the Saints emphasize a different RB week to week depending on the foe they are facing. Thomas is the all purpose RB, Bell the power back and Bush is a multi-role speed/agility back that can motion out of the backfield and play slot. Bush’s versatility is another key component to the offense but he is starting to slow down due to a chronic knee injury. The Saints returned 4 of 5 starters that developed together when the OL was rebuilt back in 2006. Brees has only been sacked more than twice in a game 2 times this year (Miami and Dallas) and including the 2 playoff games he’s averaged 1 sack every 27 attempts. RG Jahri Evans has evolved into arguably the best OG in the NFL despite coming from a Division II school. The Saints will have to contend with a very fast Colt defense that matches up fairly well in the passing game. The Colts #18 defense isn’t that bad considering that Antonio Johnson is a 5th round draft choice that was signed off Tennessee’s practice squad last year and Daniel Muir is 3rd year unrestricted free agent that was claimed last year off waivers. GM Pioli likes to state the Colts play the run (25th, 127 ypg, 4.3) on the way to the QB (15th, 34 sacks). Indy’s offensive success also helps dictate opposing teams tendencies as they play the pass more. This is the 1st playoff run since the Super Bowl win in 2006 that Indianapolis had Freeney and Mathis healthy together (22.5 sacks, 66% sacks). Indy’s LB’s don’t get a lot of credit as they are system LB’s that are very fast and are sure tacklers. Indianapolis is one of the NFL’s best at not giving up big plays in 2009 and while they give up yardage in a grinding style they also force teams into mistakes. Brackett is a solid if undersized MLB and Session is an underrated WLB is a poor man’s Derrick Brooks. While Indy is a better team when Bob Sanders plays, the Colts don’t miss him as Antoine Bethea had an All-Pro level season and Melvin Bullitt is solid run stuffer. Indianapolis is very specific in how it drafts CB’s requiring them to be solid tacklers who are very fast and they tend to get beaten up. Indianapolis has given up four 300 yard passing games this year vs Warner, Schaub and Brady with the 4th coming vs Sanchez in the playoffs when they were in a prevent defense. They’ve allowed 229 ypg passing (63%) with a 21-19 ratio with 3 TD’s coming vs Buffalo. They have only allowed 3 games of 3 passing TD’s but will be hard pressed to match that here. New Orleans’s balanced offense has the edge here despite Indy’s speed.

EDGE: SAINTS

COLTS #9 OFFENSE VS SAINTS #25 DEFENSE

Indianapolis is the only team since the 2002 realignment to with double digit wins and playoff appearances. Continuity is the core of the Colts offense as Manning has had the same OC and OL coach the entire time he’s been in the NFL. HC Jim Caldwell was his QB coach from 2002 until he took over as HC with Frank Reich replacing him. Manning has become the best statistical QB in the NFL and is keenly aware of his place in the NFL history books. He won his 4th MVP in 2009 with no less than 5 come-from-behind 4Q wins en route to a 14-0 start. What makes 2009 stand out is the fact that he no longer had Marvin Harrison and his replacement Anthony Gonzalez (knee) was lost after the season opener. Manning was able to force feed Pierre Garçon and Austin Collie into the Colts system and develop them. He was still able to get Reggie Wayne, who is arguably the 3rd best WR (behind Arizona’s Fitzgerald and Houston’s Johnson) and Dallas Clark, who is one of the top 5 receiving TE’s in the NFL, 100 rec’s each. Manning’s attention to detail in the passing game over the season helped push Garçon and Collie to a combined 18 rec’s (15.2) vs the Jets #1 D. Indianapolis has only averaged 80 yards per game (3.5) rushing the last 2 years despite adding Donald Brown in this year’s draft. While Indianapolis does struggle in short yardage situations the truth is they view RB’s as extra pass blockers and Addai is a good receiving RB (51 receptions, 6.6). Indianapolis does an excellent job of developing OL and getting them to overachieve. They are dedicated pass blockers who provide little push at the point of attack and while a lot of credit goes to Manning they have only given up 1 sack every 40 pass attempts this year. The Colts can be slowed down by bigger and physical defenses like Tennessee’s last year, Jacksonville in Week 1 or Baltimore in the Nov game. Aside from the NFC Championship game where they unloaded on Favre, New Orleans isn’t known for that. Gregg Williams runs an aggressive blitzing scheme that isn’t afraid to come from any angle. Will Smith is the top pass rusher on the team (13 sacks) but he’s not known for his run stopping ability like Charles Grant (torn triceps) was before landing on IR after the season finale. DT Ellis took a huge step in development and with him in the lineup the Saints only allowed 103 yards per game (4.2) vs 151 yards per game without him. One of the glaring weaknesses for New Orleans defense had been the lack of an impact MLB but Vilma has locked the spot down and is the one player that Williams trusts with changing defensive playcalls on the field. Prior to 2009 the Saints gave up a whopping 79-39 ratio over 3 years. While DC Williams rightfully gets most of the credit the truth is New Orleans revamped the secondary signing Sharper (9 int), Greer, getting Tracy Porter back from a broken wrist and drafting Jenkins, who would be the nickel CB. The Saints’ secondary was very beat up this year and at one point was without 4 of its top 6 CB’s but still finished 3rd with 26 regular season int (Green Bay 30, Buffalo 28). New Orleans allowed five 300 yard passing games this year but only 1 game with 3 TD passes (Washington). New Orleans does have a very dangerous secondary but they don’t have the physicality overall to slow down Manning who will have extra time to break down the defense.

EDGE: COLTS

SPECIAL TEAMS

It’s not much of a surprise that both teams are at the bottom of my special teams rankings as the Colts (#31) simply don’t spend money in this area. They replaced their special teams coach and punter in the offseason but recorded a 37.8 net average (20th). The Saints’ (#30) P Morstead tied for 32nd in net average (36.0) but part of the problem for both punters is that their offenses stall in favorable field position and they aren’t allowed to unload like Lechler does with Oakland. Both teams have poor PR numbers with Indianapolis averaging 5.2 (28th) and New Orleans averaging 4.6 (31st). Bush, however, remains a weapon and had an 83 yd PR TD vs Arizona. Kickers have struggled with FG’s in the 2009 playoffs (20 of 33) and Indy has a huge edge with Stover (569 attempts) over Hartley (26 attempts) despite his game winning 40 yard FG vs Minnesota. New Orleans has the edge on KR’s (4th) thanks to Courtney Roby whose 27.5 average tied for 11th. Both teams have poor KR defenses with New Orleans being 29th (24.5) and the Colts finishing 31st (25.3). Struggling teams generally place more emphasis on their special teams while good teams have cap issues that prevent their starters from playing there. Neither team qualifies for an edge here based on their body of work.

EDGE: NONE

COACHING

For the third time in four years a member of the Tony Dungy coaching tree will appear in the Super Bowl. Jim Caldwell was an assistant coach with Indianapolis in Super Bowl 41 which made the transition from Dungy’s retirement very smooth. Thanks to Manning, he was able to bring back OC Tom Moore and OL coach Howard Mudd for another year keeping that side of the ball together. He did bring in a new DC in Larry Coyer who set up a system for bigger DT’s but kept the overall team speed intact. He also hired a new special teams coach in Ray Rychleski and while those results haven’t moved Indy up in the rankings, they didn’t cost them any games like last year’s Wildcard loss to San Diego. Sean Payton is a former AFL QB who came into the league as a QB coach for Jim Fassel and Ray Rhodes. His career blossomed under Bill Parcells as he helped developed Romo into a starting QB. Payton is widely regarded as the best offensive oriented HC currently in the NFL. Payton made the highly publicized and successful move (chipping in $250K of his own salary) to hire Gregg Williams as his DC. New Orleans’ defense was 11th after the first 7 games but injuries and their offensive play style saw them decline as the season went along. Both teams have solid offensive coaches and really the defenses are in the first year of new DC so there are no edges.

EDGE: NONE

PAST HISTORY MATCHUP & INTANGIBLES

The last meeting between these teams was the 2007 NFL season opener where Indianapolis shredded New Orleans 41-10 at home. Indianapolis had a massive emotional edge in their first game since their Super Bowl win and New Orleans was pressing too hard to be perfect after the NFC Championship loss. New Orleans DC Williams is very familiar with Manning having been the Tennessee DC from ‘97-’00, Buffalo’s HC from ‘01-’03, the Washington DC in ‘07 and the Jacksonville DC in ‘08. He is 2-5 vs Manning with his defenses allowing 285 yards per game (65%) with a 13-4 ratio with 7 sacks. Both teams carry themselves very well in the media and the “bulletin board” material has been entertaining but not game changing. New Orleans does have the emotional boost of their first SB in franchise history and will be playing for themselves and the city. While the media will try to play up Archie Manning’s involvement with both franchises here it won’t carry weight on the field.

EDGE: NONE

FORECAST: Indianapolis 34 New Orleans 33

Todays blog will give you each roster for the Texas vs Nation all-star game complete with names, schools, PS#s and unit grades for each position.

The Texas vs Nation game is in its 4th year and pits the top collegiate players originally from Texas or who played college football in Texas against top players from around the nation.

While the game is relatively new, it has been successful seting attendence records and featuring many players who go on to to sign NFL contracts. The first year’s inaugural game in 2007 broke the attendance record for first year all-star games with 21,548. It also set a record for NFL signees in a first year all-star game with 79 players from the 2007 rosters signing NFL contracts.

In the 2nd year (2008) the game set a new record number of NFL signees in an all-star game with 102 players signing NFL contracts. Last year the attendance almost doubled with more than 40,000 fans in attendance and 111 out of the 119 players went on to sign NFL contracts (93%). The nation leads the series 2-1.

Make sure to check my daily blog tomorrow to get my Super Bowl XLIV forecast complete with my computer’s projected box score of the game plus a game overview that looks at which team has the edge on offense, defense, special teams, coaching and intangibles.

Texas vs The Nation All-Star Challenge
February 6, 2010 Sun Bowl El Paso, Texas.
Kick-off is set for 2:00 PM EST.

2010 Nation Team Roster

Coach: Howard Schnellenberger

2010 Texas Team Roster

Coach: Bill Bates