Welcome to my Sunday Blog. During the offseason I had just one weekend blog but each week during the season I will take a look at the Top 25 performances from the just completed week with a little analysis as well as a quick review of the past weekend. On Monday I will give you my News & Notes where I delve deeper into every game that was played this past weekend, breaking down individual drives and giving you misleading finals and other interesting tidbits.

As far as my game grades go after the 2008 season was completed I devised a power ratings system, which lets me analyze at what level each team played during an individual game. This “game grade” takes into account the yards rushing, yards passing, points scored, rushing yards allowed, passing yards allowed and points allowed and factors them in against the opponent played and even factors in the site the game was played at.

With all these factors taken into consideration you will see teams that lost the game having a better individual game grade than teams that beat them simply because the team they played was superior and much less was expected of them.

Top 25 Performances of the Week So Far

1. Despite breaking in a new QB and last year’s top RB LaMichael James being suspended for the game, the Ducks easily had the top performance of the week rolling up a 751-119 yd advantage and scoring 72 points against an overmatched New Mexico team.

2. Arizona used last year’s Holiday Bowl defeat as motivation all offseason and roared to a great start with a 518-183 yd edge over a Toledo team that beat Colorado in the same spot a year ago.

3. TCU only won by 9 over Oregon St but dominated the stat sheet with 454-270 yd edge over Oregon St. A couple of TO’s by the Frogs cost them a chance to win the game by a much larger margin.

4. Ohio St started their quest to make it to a 4th national title game in the last 9 years with a dominating win over Marshall. The Bucks were balanced offensively with 280 yards rushing and 249 yds passing and the defense limited the Herd to just 199 yds.

5. Miss St used two different QB’s effectively in their 49-7 trouncing of Memphis and gained 569 yards. The Bulldog D was so dominant that it did not even give up a 3rd down conversion until late in the 4th quarter.

6. California had a 331-32 yd edge at the half and cruised from their in their 52-3 win over FCS UC Davis.

7. No Ingram, no Dareus, no problem for the defending national champs as the Crimson Tide rolled San Jose St 48-3 and had a 578-176 yd edge.

8. Despite playing without their leading receiver and rusher from a year ago Utah St was still able to gain 437 yds against the Sooners and nearly pulled off the monumental upset in the 31-24 loss.

9. Georgia was playing without All-American WR AJ Green but still rolled up 55 points and limited Louisiana to just 128 total yards.

10. North Carolina HC Butch Davis did an outstanding job getting his depleted Tar Heels ready for a big game against LSU as North Carolina had a 433-333 yd edge and nearly pulled out a big comeback win in the 2nd half.

Over the weekend the preseason AP Top 25 was released with defending national champ Alabama clearly ranked #1. Every year I am particularly intrigued by who is placed in the preseason AP Top 10 as I try to predict what those teams will be shortly after the previous season is completed.

Most AP voters usually look at a couple of criteria when they evaluate a team for the upcoming season. First they look at the number of returning starters that the team has coming back particularly at the offensive skill positions. A team that returns its starting QB and a combination of its RB and WRs is often times more highly thought of than a team that loses its starting QB but returns its entire offensive line. Similarly a team that returns most of its starters on offense but loses a lot of its defensive playmakers usually is more highly thought of than a team that returns a majority of its defensive starters but loses its skill position players on offense.

Another factor that is heavily weighted is the performance of the team in the bowl game, which undoubtedly is the lasting image of that team in the offseason. A team coming off a huge bowl win usually is more highly thought of than a team that is coming off a bowl loss regardless of what their schedule looks like for the upcoming season.
Using these criteria and a few more, I project the preseason AP Top 10 every year at the conclusion of the previous season, which in most cases is nearly 7 months in advance. Now as you all know, a lot can happen from January to August and for further proof on that check on my players lost list, which is all the changes that have been made for each team since my magazine was published in May.

Last year my projected Top 10 for the AP Poll was #1 Florida, #2 Texas, #3 USC, #4 Oklahoma, #5 Alabama, #6 Virginia Tech, #7 LSU, #8 Oklahoma St, #9 Ohio St and #10 Mississippi. The actual AP Top 10 was #1 Florida, #2 Texas, #3 Oklahoma, #4 USC, #5 Alabama, #6 Ohio St, #7 Virginia Tech, #8 Mississippi and#9 was a tie between Oklahoma St/Penn St.

I nailed nine of the ten teams that appeared in the Preseason Top 10 with the only exception being LSU/Penn St and I may have had something to do with that. It’s interesting to note that of the main preseason magazines, only two had Penn St ranked in the Top 10 and I had them my #1 surprise team and ranked #5. Most had Penn St out of the Top 10. Perhaps since I had them rated so high in my magazine, it influenced a few voters across the country, bumping them into the Top 10.

This year way back in my February 2nd Blog, I projected the preseason AP Top 10 would be #1 Alabama, #2 Ohio St, #3 Boise St, #4 Oregon, #5 Texas, #6 TCU, #7 Iowa, #8 Florida, #9 Nebraska and #10 Virginia Tech.

The actual AP Top 10 which came out over the weekend was #1 Alabama, #2 Ohio St, #3 Boise St, #4 Florida, #5 Texas, #6 TCU, #7 Oklahoma, #8 Nebraska, #9 Iowa and #10 Virginia Tech.

For the second year in a row I nailed nine of the ten teams that appeared in the Preseason Top 10 with the only exception being Oregon/Oklahoma, which I can defend easily.

First, at the time I wrote my projection back in early February Duck QB Jeremiah Masoli was not yet suspended. With Masoli still in the fold at that point Oregon had 17 returning starters including RB LaMichael James and Masoli in the backfield. The Ducks clearly would have been a preseason Top 10 team and probably Top 5 had Masoli not been kicked off the team. Even without Masoli Oregon was still rated #11 in the preseason poll.

The team that I did not have in my projected AP Top 10 was Oklahoma (#7) and if you have purchased my magazine or listed to one of my radio shows across the country you know I think very highly of the Sooners this year as I have them ranked #1. Like Penn St last year perhaps since I had them rated so high in my magazine, it influenced a few voters across the country, bumping them into the Top 10 despite the Sooners having five losses last year and the fact that they did not even finish in the final AP Top 25.

I also am pleased that six of the 10 teams are ranked in the exact position that I projected way back in February including the top 3 in Alabama, Ohio St and Boise St. I also had Texas, TCU and Virginia Tech ranked in their exact positions in the poll.

So there you have it, next year when you see my preseason AP Top 10 projection in late January or early February go ahead and compare it to the first AP poll that will come out several months later and I know you’ll find that probably 9 or maybe even all 10 will be in the Preseason AP Top 10.

Only 10 Days Until the First College Football Game!

The college football season is fast approaching and in today’s blog I will give you a sneak peak at some of the early marquee college football non-conference games and how I think they will shake out as of right now. Also included is your current voting tallies for each of these games.

Remember if you visit the homepage right now, you can get a head start on voting in the Non-Conference Poll with all the non-conference games. To see where you rank against other voters, as soon as your vote is entered in, you will see the % stacked with or against you. In the next day or two the four remaining non-BCS conferences will be added on the front page. The Non-Conference Poll will run until Sunday, Aug 29th. On Monday the 30th, look for the Weekly Polls to start. There are games every day Thursday September 2nd thru Monday September 6th as the first week of the season looks to kick off with a bang! Weekly prizes will be awarded throughout the season.

Marquee Early Non-Conference Match-ups
With Your Current Voting % on Top

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Pitt at Utah Sept 2nd. Utah won in the 2004 Fiesta Bowl 35-7 (only previous meeting). Pitt is #107 in my Experience Chart (page 311 of TY’s mag) while Utah is #57. Utah’s altitude edge is expanded because they have been home all month. Pitt has a young QB and O-Line making their first road starts at night in front of a loud and enthusiastic crowd. Utah is 17-1 at home the last 3 yrs and will be fired up for this one. Utah 27-24.

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Connecticut at Michigan Sept 4th. Michigan is expanding the stadium and in doing so it is more enclosed and will be louder, holding in more sound. Rich Rod was 4-0 vs Connecticut in Big East play and is in the 3rd year at Michigan, which is usually a break thru season. Michigan was 5-2 at one point last year and this is a MUST win for UM. Michigan 27-24.

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Oregon St vs TCU Sept 4th. (Arlington) Texas is not a neutral site for these teams however three things have been very consistent under Mike Riley: 1. They usually finish higher in the Pac 10 than what I forecast 2. Experienced QB’s fare much better than 1st year QB’s in his system and 3. Oregon St struggles on the road the first month of the season. TCU is legit and will be sky high for a BCS conference foe led by a 1st year QB. TCU 27-13.

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LSU vs North Carolina (Atlanta) Sept 4. Great battle between the SEC vs ACC. LSU was actually outgained last year 305-328 despite their 9 wins. North Carolina meanwhile was 8-5 but had a 308-270 yd edge on the year. NC has 19 returning starters and their defense is LOADED with NFL prospects (could have 5 picks in 1st or 2nd round). LSU only has 10 returning starters so they are less experienced. I will call for the upset. NC 17-13.

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Boise St vs Virginia Tech Sept 6th. This is a true national title elimination game and both deserve to be in the Top 10. While this is a “neutral” site it is right in VT’s back yard and Boise must fly across the country. VT has a tremendous backfield and being the lower ranked team will feel like the underdog. Last year they whipped Miami, Fla in a similar situation. Virginia Tech 30-27.

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Michigan at Notre Dame Sept 11th. There have been 6 straight outright upsets when these two meet in South Bend! UM is just 2-8 in road openers. Last year Michigan got a TD with :11 left to pull the upset at home. It is my #3 Most Improved team vs my #5 MIP team. UM rates a slight edge on offense while ND has the defense and home edges. Notre Dame 31-27.

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Florida St at Oklahoma Sept 11. Both teams have explosive offenses but OU has a huge edge on defense as they allowed just 273 ypg in ’09 and lose 11 letterman with 5 starters back and FSU allowed 435 ypg and lose 12 letterman (6 starters back). FSU was out gained by an avg of 421-435 last year while OU even in an 8-5 year had a 424-273 yard edge. OU is 61-2 at home this past decade and FSU is on a 4-9 run vs ranked tms. OKLAHOMA 37-27.

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Miami Fla at Ohio St Sept 11. Miami only had one unit not in my top units in the front of the magazine and that was Offensive line but they just added PS#1 Henderson from USC. Two exciting QB’s and top 6 defenses. My picks to win the ACC and the Big Ten. Shannon is 4-7 vs ranked teams while Tressell is 31-14 and Ohio St is at home for this. OHIO STATE 30-20.

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Oregon at Tennessee Sept 11th. Tennessee has the large edge of the heat and humidity of the South vs a team from the Northwest. Oregon has the edge of having a much deeper and experienced team with 17 returning starters from last year’s Rose bowl squad. Tennessee has their 3rd HC in 3 years and suffered a lot of attrition and has just 9 returning starters. UT takes it to the wire but…OREGON 27-20.

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Penn State at Alabama Sept 11. Penn St has 6 units that rank in my top units of the front of the magazine and Bama does have just 2 returning starters on D. The key here is Penn St has a QB making his first road start vs a Top 10 D in front of a loud home crowd. Alabama 30-20.

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Arizona St at Wisconsin Sept 18. The Badgers are loaded this year with 16 returning starters from a 10-3 #14 squad that dominated Miami in the bowl game. Arizona St was just 4-8 last year and has just 9 returning starters BUT their defense was #13 in the country last year allowing just 298 ypg! This wont be the mismatch most expect but UW at home wins 28-18.

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Clemson at Auburn Sept 18 – Less than 250 miles apart. Clemson faced two weak teams and has a bye on deck so this is their “A” game for September while Auburn is in an SEC sandwich. Auburn is #26 in my experience chart and Clemson is #56. Auburn is #22 in my Power Poll (and at home) and Clemson #36 and is replacing Spiller and Ford, their two game breakers. AUBURN 30-27.

Only 15 Days Until the First College Football Game!!

Today’s blog will start a series, which will analyze the most/least improved units over the last 20 years. Each day this week I will have a new offensive or defensive statistical category to examine and today I will start with offensive rush yards.

There are many factors that contribute to a significant change in rush yards. First, a new coach may come in and prefer a more run-oriented attack than the previous coach. Naturally a lot more rushing carries will usually equal a lot more yards. Similarly you may see a significant drop in rush yards if the new coach features a pass-happy offense than the previous coach.

Another factor team which could contribute to a large gain in rush yards may be that the team is starting a young quarterback and they will want to focus on the running game more to take the pressure off the inexperienced signal caller. Similarly, a large drop off in rush yards may occur when the team has an experienced quarterback, but has to replace their star RB from the year before.  Also a team may feature an experienced Heisman-caliber running back and in that case they will give him many more carries thus increasing the rush output. Finally, a team that returns most of their offensive lineman who are multiple-year starters will usually see an increase in rush yards.

Whatever the case may be here are all the teams that improved by at least 100 yards rushing compared to the prior season. Quick note for many of the smaller schools in the WAC, MAC and Sun Belt: my data only goes back to 1995 for those teams so it would include the last 15 years instead of the last 20.

Most Improved Rush YPG L/20 Years

The 1995 Navy Midshipmen has the most improved rush attack in the last 20 years avg an amazing 234 ypg which was 178 ypg more than the meager 56 ypg they averaged in 1994. Probably the biggest reason for this large gain was the hiring of Utah St coach Charlie Weatherbie who instituted a run-heavy offense.

There were several factors going in Army’s favor in 2008. First I have pointed out in my magazine several times that service academies usually graduate a good portion of their starting OL, however Army’s ’08 group had five back with starting experience. Also Army was shifting back to the option offense and returned their top four rushers. Add all of these factors up and you get the 2^nd most improved rush attack of the last 20 years.

At #3 is Buffalo who went from avg just 80 ypg in 1997 to 224 ypg in 1998. In 2003, the Michigan St Spartans had their weakest rush attack in at least 50 years when they averaged just 97 ypg (3.2). Much of this had to do with their reliance on senior QB Jeff Smoker who left as MSU’s leader in passing yards and total offense. In 2004, the Spartans tried several QBs but finally settled on Drew Stanton who was a running threat. With this added dimension and the emergence of RB Javon Ringer, the Spartan rush attack improved to avg 239 ypg.

Now here is a look at all of the teams who averaged at least 100 rush ypg less than the prior year. Keep in mind again that my data only goes back to 1995 for some of the smaller schools.

Least Improved Rush YPG L/20 Years

After my numbers and data were crunched, the #1 least improved rush attack of the last 20 years came at no surprise. The 2008 Arkansas rush attack had several factors going against it. First, new head coach Bobby Petrino was hired and was implementing a more pass-oriented attack. Second, while they had 7 of their top 10 OL back, they were switching schemes, which led to the unit being down a few notches. Finally and most importantly, the Hogs lost the best trio of RB’s the NCAA had seen in some time as Darren McFadden (1,830 yds), Felix Jones (1,162 yds) and Peyton Hillis (347 yds) all left and took their talents to the NFL. Add these factors up and the Razorbacks avg 173 rush ypg less in 2008.

Thanks to the graduation of star RB DeAngelo Williams (1,964 rush yds), the 2006 Memphis Tigers come in at #2 with a 156 ypg drop-off. Tied at #3 is the 1998 Nebraska Cornhuskers and the 2001 TCU Horned Frogs who avg 153 rush ypg less than the previous year. The ‘98 Huskers were coming off the national title in Tom Osborne’s final season and they had to replace four starters on their OL.  Most importantly they also lost RB Ahman Green and QB Scott Frost who combined to rush for 3,238 yards and 46 TDs in ’97 and while their replacements were talented, they were much less experienced. Similarly the 2001 Horned Frogs lost their star player in 2001 in Ladainian Tomlinson who rushed for 2,276 yards in 2000.

I will be back tomorrow with a look at the most/least improved pass attacks from the last 20 years.

Please check out the PhilSteele.com homepage and take at look at my Top 25 FCS Countdown which continues with #2 Appalachian St today. Click on the link to get the entire full magazine page layout on the Mountaineers but remember the page will be available for only 24 hours to download.

Also Josh Buchanan of JBScouting.com does a great job of scouting FCS players and teams and he also helps me with some of the team write-ups in my FCS magazine. In the July 14th blog, I gave you his top 5 players at each offensive position and here are his top 5 players at each position on the defensive side. Also each Monday between now and the draft next April he will hold a question and answer session where he will sit down and answer your questions each week.  If you have a question about a player, the draft process, or anything related to small school football you can ask him a question by CLICKING HERE!  Make sure to leave your email address if you want the answer sent directly to you as well and regardless if you want a private answer as well please leave your name and where you are from to be published in the blog.

DEFENSIVE ENDS

1. Christian Anthony, Grambling State, Sr.
2. Christian Clark, Sacramento State, Sr.
3. Markell Carter, Central Arkansas, Sr.
4. Malcolm Taylor, Alcorn State, Sr.
5. Jabari Fletcher, Appalachian State, Sr.

DEFENSIVE TACKLES

1. Martin Parker, Richmond, Sr.
2. Kenrick Ellis, Hampton, Sr.
3. Renard Williams, Eastern Washington, Jr.
4. Brent Russell, Georgia Southern, Soph.
5. Dan Ogden, Montana State, Sr.

OUTSIDE LINEBACKERS

1. J.C. Sherritt, Eastern Washington, Sr.
2. D.J. Smith, Appalachian State, Sr.
3. Eric McBride, Richmond, Sr.
4. Marty Patterson, Gardner-Webb, Sr.
5. Derek Domino, South Dakota State, Sr.

INSIDE LINEBACKERS

1. Jabara Williams, Stephen F. Austin, Sr.
2. Bryce Smith, Samford, Sr.
3. Jake Trantin, William & Mary, Jr.
4. Kadarron Anderson, Furman, Jr.
5. Joshua Jones, Elon, Jr.

CORNERBACKS

1. Korey Lindsey-Woods, Southern Illinois, Sr.
2. Trumaine Johnson, Montana, Jr.
3. Josh Norman, Coastal Carolina, Jr.
4. Justin Rogers, Richmond, Sr.
5. Jeremy Caldwell, Eastern Kentucky, Jr.

FREE SAFETIES

1. Mike McElroy, Southern Illinois, Sr.
2. Jason House, Southern, Sr.
3. Matt Estrada, Northern Arizona, Sr.
4. Max Hewitt, Northern Colorado, Sr.
5. Collin Zych, Harvard, Sr.

STRONG SAFETIES

1. Mark LeGree, Appalachian State, Sr.
2. Eugene Clifford, Tennessee State, Sr.
3. Conrad Kjerstad, South Dakota State, Sr.
4. James Vercammen, Dayton, Sr.
5. Tommy Connors, Southeastern Louisiana, Sr.

 Only 45 Days Until the First College Football Game!!

Many of you have asked me for an updated Bowl Projections listing since USC was eliminated from bowl contention recently. In the magazine which went to press before the NCAA’s ruling I projected the Trojans to go to the Rose Bowl. Naturally most of my Pac-10 selections for bowls have changed with the ineligibility of USC. Oregon now gets my pick to go to the Rose Bowl and a lot of the other Pac-10 teams get bumped up. Here are my current projections for all 35 of this year’s bowl games which includes the BCS Championship game.

2010-2011 Bowl Schedule and Projections

Only 47 days Until the First College Football Game!!!

For the next two weeks, I will be taking a look at the conference teams of the decade for 2000-2009. Factored into my analysis will be conference win %, conference and division titles, bowl games and bowl wins. I will also include BCS bowl wins, final AP rankings and number of national championships for the major conferences. There have been several teams who have changed conferences during that time and I will include them in the analysis for any season(s) they were affiliated with that certain conference. I will also be doing a breakdown of how the conference did in bowl games during the decade and I will emphasis the overall win/loss record, the number of BCS bowl wins, and the records against Non-BCS and ranked bowl teams.

While some conferences may have no-brainers as the top team, other conferences were very competitive over the past decade. Here is the schedule for the upcoming week with the conferences I will be analyzing on each date.

Monday Sun Belt 
Tuesday MAC 
Wednesday WAC 
Yesterday CUSA 
Today MWC 
Saturday Big East 
Monday, July 5th Pac-10 
Tuesday, July 6th ACC 
Wednesday, July 7th Big 12 
Thursday, July 8th Big 10 
Friday, July 9th SEC

The MWC has been the best non-BCS conference the last few years and the Big 3 (TCU, BYU, and Utah) are all BCS caliber teams. In 2000, the MWC had eight teams and then added TCU in 2005 to get them to nine. Next year the conference adds WAC Power Boise St but loses Utah to the Pac-10. Here are my overall rankings for MWC Team of the Decade.

MWC Rankings 2000-2009

Utah gets the nod here despite being #3 in overall win %. What put the Utes over the top was their two undefeated seasons in ’04 and ’08 in which they won two BCS bowls and finished in the AP Top 5 each year. Utah also tied BYU with the most titles and made the most bowl games (8). Another impressive feat for the Utes was they won all their bowl games in the past decade including 5 over BCS conference teams! It is kind of ironic though that Utah wins my team of the decade and will be moving on to the Pac-10 next year.

Going into last year, TCU was #3 on my list but thanks to a tremendous season, the Horned Frogs jump to #2. TCU easily has the best win % with 83.7% since joining the conference in ’05. The Frogs have 5 straight bowl appearances winning four of them and has four AP Top 25 finishes the last five years! TCU also has won 3 of 5 against BYU including the last two by a 70-14 margin, which gave them the slight nod over the Cougars.

It is tough putting BYU here at #3 as the Cougars have finished very strong under HC Mendenhall recently. However, BYU did have 5 seasons from 2000-06 with 6 or more losses. While the Cougars are tied with Utah with the most titles (3) and have more conference wins than any other school, they do not have any BCS appearances and Top 10 finishes like TCU and Utah.

Colorado St won a couple of titles early in the decade and get my vote for #4 despite having a losing record overall in conference play thanks in large part to last season’s 0-8 finish. However, their 2 titles trumps any other argument for Air Force and New Mexico. In the last couple of years Air Force has clearly been the #4 team behind the Big 3 but come up at #5 here. Former New Mexico HC Rocky Long did a great job and led the Lobos to five bowl games in the past decade as they get the nod for #6.

Here are the overall bowl records for MWC teams during the course of the decade. Keep in mind for TCU these bowl records are only from their seasons when they were in MWC.

MWC Bowl Records ’00-’09

As you can see, the MWC has been very impressive in bowl games with a 24-14 overall mark and a nice 11-7 record against BCS teams. They also have six wins over ranked teams and Utah’s 8-0 overall mark in bowl games was better than any school in the country over the past decade!

I will be back tomorrow with a look at the team of the decade in the Big East. Will another team who has not played in the conference for several years be named team of the decade like the MAC and CUSA? Check it out tomorrow around noon est.

Also please check PhilSteele.com everyday to get my FCS Top 25 Countdown, which continues with #19 Eastern Illinois. Thru July 20th, I will post both magazine pages on a new team ranked in the Top 25 and you can get an early look on how I breakdown your favorite FCS team. Remember those magazine pages are available for only 24 hours for you to download as the next team will be posted the following day.

Only 62 Days Until the First College Football Game!!!

For the next two weeks, I will be taking a look at the conference teams of the decade for 2000-2009. Factored into my analysis will be conference win %, conference and division titles, bowl games and bowl wins. I will also include BCS bowl wins, final AP rankings and number of national championships for the major conferences. There have been several teams who have changed conferences during that time and I will include them in the analysis for any season(s) they were affiliated with that certain conference. I will also be doing a breakdown of how the conference did in bowl games during the decade and I will emphasis the overall win/loss record, the number of BCS bowl wins, and the records against Non-BCS and ranked bowl teams.

While some conferences may have no-brainers as the top team, other conferences were very competitive over the past decade. Here is the schedule for the upcoming week with the conferences I will be analyzing on each date.

Monday Sun Belt 
Tuesday MAC 
Yesterday WAC 
Today CUSA 
Tomorrow MWC 
Saturday Big East 
Monday, July 5th Pac-10 
Tuesday, July 6th ACC 
Wednesday, July 7th Big 12 
Thursday, July 8th Big 10 
Friday, July 9th SEC

CUSA in 2000 consisted of Louisville, Cincinnati, East Carolina, Southern Miss, UAB, Tulane, Memphis, Houston and Army. They added TCU in 2001. Two years later in 2003 they added South Florida and they were an 11 team league for two seasons. In 2005 they lost Cincinnati, Louisville and USF to the Big East and Army dropped out. They added in Rice, SMU, UTEP and Tulsa from the WAC. They also added Marshall and UCF from the MAC. With 12 teams they split into two divisions the last 5 years. Here are my overall rankings for CUSA Team of the Decade.

CUSA Rankings 2000-2009

Just like Marshall in the MAC, Louisville gets the nod here despite not being in the league for five years. They easily had the highest win % and also had the most titles with three. The Cards went to five bowl games in five years and finished in the AP Top 25 twice including a #6 finish in 2004.

Tulsa comes in at #2 with the second highest win % and the Golden Hurricane also had the most division titles with 3. Had Tulsa won the conference last year they would have had a chance to finish as the team of the decade.

If I were awarding the most consistent team of the decade it would clearly be Southern Miss as they had ten winning seasons and made nine bowl appearances. Southern Miss easily had the most wins but the problem is they could not get over the hump and win multiple championships. Despite having 24 more wins than Tulsa, I put Southern Miss here at #3 because Tulsa had a higher win %, was 2-1 against Southern Miss and also had 2 more division titles.

East Carolina made a late push under former HC Skip Holtz. With their back-to-back CUSA Championships the past two years they finish #4. Houston also has finished the decade strong but three losing seasons to start the decade including an 0-11 season in 2001 has them coming in at #5. Rounding out my top 8 are TCU, UCF and Cincinnati. It is interesting that of the two MAC teams that came over Marshall was the MAC powerhouse coming in but has gone just 17-23 while UCF was coming off an 0-11 season but has gone 26-14 in a tougher league.

Here are the overall bowl records for CUSA teams during the course of the decade. Keep in mind for Louisville, TCU, and Cincinnati these bowl records are only from their seasons when they were in CUSA.

CUSA Bowl Records ’00-’09

Overall, CUSA was 21-31 overall last decade with just a 1-10 record against BCS teams. The conference faired reasonably against ranked teams with a 6-6 record. Southern Miss led the way with five bowl wins while Tulsa had three. Louisville was 2-3 but each of the wins came against ranked opponents.

I will be back tomorrow with a look at the team of the decade in the MWC which is a three horse race between BYU, Utah and TCU. 

Also please check PhilSteele.com everyday to get my FCS Top 25 Countdown, which continues with #20 Montana St. Thru July 20th, I will post both magazine pages on a new team ranked in the Top 25 and you can get an early look on how I breakdown your favorite FCS team. Remember those magazine pages are available for only 24 hours for you to download as the next team will be posted the following day.

Only 63 Days Until the First College Football Game!!!

At the end of the 2008 season we devised a formula which plugged in the stats from the just completed season and then factored in the opponents and the site the game was played at and came up with an individual team power rating for each game. I was very pleased that the formula did indeed assign a true power rating for each game and it was highly accurate.

In the weekend blog, I gave you the top 15 individual “game grade” performances from 2009. Today I will give you the teams with the highest game grade averages from last year, which make up my computer’s final Top Ten and compare it to the AP Final Top Ten.

First here is the final AP Top Ten from last year.

1. Alabama
2. Texas
3. Florida
4. Boise St
5. Ohio St
6. TCU
7. Iowa
8. Cincinnati
9. Penn St
10. Virginia Tech

Now here is my Computer’s Final Top Ten from last year.

1. Alabama 96.2 avg
2. Florida 96.0
3. Texas 95.7
4. TCU 92.4
5. Oklahoma 91.2
6. Virginia Tech 88.3
7. Ohio St 86.0
8. Oregon 85.2
9. Texas Tech 84.8
10. Nebraska 84.5

As you can see there are some differences between the polls. Naturally, Alabama was at the top of both polls. My computer had Florida barely ahead of Texas because the Gators schedule was slightly tougher and they outgained opponents by 205 ypg while Texas outgained their foes by 169 ypg. Despite the loss in the Fiesta Bowl, TCU comes in at #4 thanks to their dominating 12-0 regular season that saw the Horned Frogs outgain foes by 217 ypg! Oklahoma is another surprise here coming in at #5 despite their 5 losses. The Sooners lost 4 games by less than a TD and their +133 ypg in conference play was actually the best in the Big 12. Oregon finished just outside the AP Top Ten at #11 while my computer had them at #8 so there was not much of a difference there. Also Texas Tech and Nebraska appear in my computer’s Top Ten while AP #8 Cincinnati (#23 in my computer poll) and AP #9 Penn St (#14) were left out.

Now before Boise, Cincinnati and Iowa fans start to get riled up with these rankings remember this is my computer’s poll and not the way I would have voted the Final AP poll if I was indeed an AP voter. However, due to past research on comparing my computer poll with the AP poll there is a significant trend with how teams do the next year. Teams that are in the AP Final Top Ten but not in my computers are generally overrated the next year while teams that are in my computer’s Top Ten but not in the AP are underrated.

Let’s take a look at several examples.

In 2004, Iowa finished 10-2 and were ranked #8 in the final AP poll but were just #21 in my computer’s final grades. In 2005, Iowa opened up #11 in the AP poll and they went 7-5 and finished out of the rankings. On the opposite end in 2004, LSU did not finish in the AP Top Ten but my computer had them #8. The next year these “underrated” Tigers finished #6 in the country after their thrashing of #9 Miami Florida 40-3 in the bowl.

In 2005, Alabama was 10-2 and finished with a bowl win over Texas Tech and were #8 in the AP poll. They took on my #55 rated schedule and only averaged 21.9 ppg on offense. My computer did not even have them in the top 15. The next year Alabama finished 6-7 and fired HC Shula.

Also in 2005, Louisville was #19 in the AP poll (#8 in my computer) but were actually the most dominant team in the Big East and would have been in the Sugar Bowl if not for a blown lead at West Virginia. The next year Louisville went 12-1 and their only loss was at Rutgers, a game UL actually led 25-7 but lost on a last second FG. Change one play in that game and Louisville would have played Ohio St in the national title game in 2006! The other team not in the AP Top Ten was Michigan (computer #9), which finished 2005 at just 7-5. Michigan took on the 2nd toughest schedule in the country in 2005 and had losses by 7, 3, 3, 4 and 4! The next year (2006) Michigan was 11-0 and #2 in the country when they played #1 Ohio State in Columbus and after losing that game by just 3, many felt they should have played Ohio State in the title game rather than Florida!

In 2006, despite Florida winning the National Title and playing the best game of the year in the biggest game, they were not the best team over the entire course of the season (Computer #4). LSU had a 22-14 FD edge vs them but the Gators won thanks to being +3 in turnovers. Alabama had a couple of late TO’s and lost a late lead. Florida blocked 2 FG’s and a crucial xp to get past South Carolina by 1 point! I got beat up by Gator fans when I had them ranked out of the Top 10 (#14) in the 2007 preseason poll (lower than everyone else) and the Gators finished 2007 at #13. My computer also did not have Boise St in the Top 10 despite their upset of Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl and in 2007 Boise finished unranked.

On the other side, Oklahoma was not in the AP Top 10 at the end of the year but was #8 in my computer’s ranking. In ’07, they won the Big 12 and were #3 at the end of the regular season. My Computer’s #1 team in 2006 was LSU (which was only #3 in the AP poll). How did they fare in 2007? They would “only” go on to win the National Title!

Oregon, Florida and Texas Tech were three 4-loss teams in 2007 that my computer said were Top Ten teams despite their record. How did the “top ten party crashers” (on my computers Top Ten but not in the AP poll) do in 2008? Florida won the national title, Texas Tech was 10-0 and #2 in the country at one point and Oregon finished the year #10 in the final polls.

There were three teams in the AP Top Ten at the end of 2007 that my computer did not have as Top Ten squads. Georgia finished the 2007 season #2 in the final polls but my computer only had them #15 at the end of the year with a 84.7 average game. Only once in 2007 did they even play at over a 100 level and that was a 102.85 effort vs Auburn. They had a 61.05 game in their 35-14 loss to Tennessee and a 78.65 game the next week barely getting past Vanderbilt 20-17 (thanks to a late Vandy fumble). Based on the final record and final game performance they were #2 in the AP in 2007 and #1 in the AP poll in the preseason of 2008. Georgia proved they were overrated in 2008 by finishing #16.

Will those trends continue in 2010? If they do, teams that my computer did not think were Top Ten last year like Boise St, Iowa, Cincinnati and Penn St could disappoint while teams in my computer’s Top Ten like Oklahoma, Oregon, Texas Tech and Nebraska could surprise and this year finish in the Top Ten.

I hope you enjoy the game grade averages as they give you another way of evaluating how well or how poorly your team did last year and they also have proven to be a precursor for the following year.

If you like the game grades averages make sure to check them out on the game-by-game stats for each team in this year’s magazine. At the bottom of the stats page above the year results look for the total game grade average and the ranking below it is my computer’s final ranking.

Expansion Thoughts

The conference expansion/re-alignment situation to me is very similar to all the talk earlier this year of the NCAA Basketball tournament expanding. While I do not follow college basketball, it seemed like every day I turned on SportsCenter I would hear the rumors and possibilities of the tournament expanding to 96 teams but when it was all said and done only three teams were added.

With the news of Texas deciding to stay with the Big 12 (or is it now the new Big Ten?), I think all the expansion talk of there being four 16 super conferences will probably go by the wayside. All the talk about the Big East and ACC being in danger seems moot and I think Utah going to the Pac-10 should probably close all the moves as I do not feel the Big 12 will expand as they will not want to divide the TV pie up among two more teams.

Naturally the Big Ten is now a stronger conference with the addition of Nebraska and are clearly the #2 conference behind the SEC now. The WAC was dealt a severe blow with the loss of Boise to the MWC.

What I do not understand in this whole mess is how the Big 12 can lose two teams with one of them being Nebraska and go from a 70 million dollar TV contract to a 200 million dollar deal. Obviously Big 12 commissioner Dan Beebe did a great job of convincing Texas to stay and I am sure Kansas, Kansas St, Baylor and Iowa St fans are glad he did.

Power Ratings

If you are a follower of my magazine, I am sure you are familiar with the fact that I have NINE different sets of power ratings that I create each preseason to give me 9 different ways of analyzing a team. One is based on the individual talent level and performance of each position on each team and those are added up for the rating. Another is based on my Power Plays numbers, which include rushing and passing offenses, defenses and special teams. Another is a continually updated power rating based on the score of the games and the strength of opponent. Finally a few years back, before computers became part of the BCS rankings system, there was without a doubt some flaws in the polls. Teams rated #2 or #3 in the country really were not that talented and were maybe the 5th or 6th best. One internet site decided to produce a poll of some of the top analysts and experts each week and invited me to join. I myself work 365 days a year. During magazine time (March, April, May) and throughout the football season (August through January) there are many 15-18 hour days put in and all of them are spent solely working on FOOTBALL. When they invited me to join the poll, I wanted to give them the best set of power ratings in the country to help make the poll as accurate as possible. The dilemma I had was which set?

What I decided to do was combine all eight into one rating which gives me a very solid overall ranking for each team. The rating takes into account EVERY factor, using it as my main set of power ratings which thus created my 9th set. You can learn more about this main set of power ratings on page 315 of this year’s magazine. I also go into complete details on my plus/minus power ratings on page 305.

When I have all of my sets of power ratings finalized I then plug them into each individual team’s schedule and let the computer play out each game using the different power ratings. My computer will then show me which teams that have one or more sets of Power Ratings calling for them to have undefeated seasons. Naturally, if a team is projected at the top of my Power Ratings, it has a greater chance of going unbeaten. 

Here are the teams that are projected to have undefeated seasons by at least one of my power ratings this year.

Power Ratings Call For 12-0 Season

This list of teams has proven to be a good indicator of the chances of an undefeated season. In 2002, three sets of my ratings called for Ohio St to go unbeaten and the Buckeyes were the surprise team of the country and won the National Title. Basically any team that has finished unbeaten in the past 8 years has made this list.

Here are some teams that just missed the cut.

Power Ratings Call For 11-1 Season

I am sure you are wondering why I am so fascinated and dependent on power ratings when analyzing a team in the preseason and during the season. I am in my late 40’s and I started following college football with great intensity at about 10 years old. At that time (being a numbers guy) I devised my own set of power ratings, which was based mostly on where the preseason magazines I was reading ranked the teams. I even awarded points at that time for how many pictured players each team had in the magazines. I updated those ratings during the season based on the final scores of the games.

A few years later after compiling my ratings (and no longer counting pictures), I stumbled upon the GamePlan magazine. In the front of the magazine was a set of power ratings for each team!! I now had two sets of power ratings on each team and I updated them both during the year giving me two different ways of looking at the strength of a team and I was well on my way to nine different sets.

Also please check PhilSteele.com everyday to get my Top 30 Countdown, which posted #3 Alabama yesterday. Through Thursday, I will post both magazine pages on a new team ranked in the Top 30 and you can get an early look at my breakdown of your favorite team. Remember those magazine pages are available for only 24 hours for you to download. Today, Ohio St comes in at #2.

Last week we opened the polls on the homepage for you, the fans to vote on each and every conference matchup for eight conferences. Last year you guys were more accurate than any other college preview publication and this is a great way for me to gauge how the public views each game. When you vote you have the entire conference schedule in front of you and the home team is capitalized. Get your votes in today and see how the fans think the big games like Oklahoma-Texas, Ohio St at Iowa, Florida St at Miami, Fl and West Virginia at Pittsburgh are going to shake out! To vote you do have to register your e-mail address but this is just to make sure there is no stuffing of the ballot box.

Only 79 DAYS LEFT UNTIL THE FIRST COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME!!