From 2005-’08 I published an article titled Coaching Changes in my College Football Preview magazine. Each year I try to make the magazine a little bit bigger and a little bit better but we’re capped out at 328 pages so Coaching Changes does not appear in my 2010 magazine. We have had a lot of requests for this article and since the website has an unlimited amount of room, PhilSteele.com is a great vehicle to continue publishing this article and I will do so each year.

COACHING CHANGES BY PHIL STEELE

There is something to be said for coaching stability as it usually takes a couple of years for a new head coach to get a program going. They usually have their best success when they have a team full of their own recruits and their offensive and defensive systems have been in place for a couple of years. The first few years can be rough on a new head coach as they inherit players who now have to learn new schemes on both offense and defense and he has to learn the players strengths and weaknesses. Pete Carroll won two straight National Titles but in his first year the Trojans opened up at 2-5 and finished at just 6-6 after the bowl. Tommy Tuberville’s first team at Auburn was just 5-6 but in his 6th season they were a perfect 13-0. Nick Saban’s first LSU team started off 3-3 and finished 8-4 but in his 4th year they won a share of the National Title. In Bob Stoops’ first year at Oklahoma, the Sooners were just 7-5, including a bowl loss to Mississippi. Since then, they have won a National Title and played in six Big 12 Championship games. Les Miles went 4-7 in his first year at Oklahoma St followed by 3 winning years. Jim Tressel was just 7-5 his first year but won a National Title in his second. Kirk Ferentz was a combined 4-19 his first two seasons but the Hawkeyes have now been to six Jan bowls. Pat Hill’s first two Fresno St teams went a combined 11-12 but since then have had 10 winning years. Finally Woody Hayes won just 4 games in his first season at Ohio St.

The reason I bring up these examples is twofold: first it shows that Athletic Directors should have a little more patience before firing a head coach for a losing season. Secondly, I wanted to point out that there are individual unit rankings in the lower right hand corner on each of the conference pages. You will notice that I have FIRST year coaching staffs graded lower than you would normally expect.

What sparked this article a few years back was Ole Miss’ dumping of David Cutcliffe just one year after the Rebels shared the SEC West Title with LSU. They were the only team that had been bowl eligible 7 straight years prior to that rare losing season. Then after the firing, from 2005-2007, the Rebels went just 3-21 in SEC play.

SLOW STARTERS

Let me go over some programs that stuck with coaches for much longer than expected, through many losing seasons but have ultimately been rewarded. The best example is Virginia Tech. Frank Beamer had successive years of 2-9, 3-8, 6-4-1, 6-5, 6-5, 5-6 and 2-8-1 to start his tenure. Amazingly, Virginia Tech stuck with him. Can you imagine another program that would stick with a head coach through a streak like that? Beamer has done an amazing job building his program including having one of the best strength training programs in the country. They are now a National Title contender on a yearly basis and simply won the ACC Title in their inaugural year in the conference despite being picked 7th in the preseason ACC poll. Joe Novak started out 1-10, 0-11, 2-9 and 5-6 his first 4 years at Northern Illinois and once again, they opted to stick with him and were rewarded with 7 consecutive winning seasons from 2000-’06. Darrell Dickey was DONE at North Texas. His first 3 teams went 3-8, 2-9 and 3-8 and in 2001 they opened the season 0-5. Their AD was under HEAVY pressure to get rid of Dickey not just at the end of the season but RIGHT THEN so they could have some hope. They rebounded to win an amazing 26 consecutive SBC games (including the final 5 in 2001)! They went to four bowls with 4 league titles. Will NT stick with 4th year HC Dodge (5-31 in ’07-’09) if he starts out like Dickey? Navy’s Paul Johnson went 2-10 in his first year but the Mids went to five straight bowls winning 8, 10, 8, 9 and 8 games in those seasons. Rocky Long inherited a New Mexico team that went 9-4 in Dennis Franchione’s last season and his first squad went just 3-9. Two more losing seasons followed but they stuck with him and the team had 7 consecutive years of bowl eligibility. When Barry Alvarez took over at Wisconsin, he went 1-10 in his first year and followed that up with two more losing seasons. The Badgers simply went to 11 bowl games in his tenure and he retired with an amazing three Rose Bowl wins under his belt. Dan McCarney of Iowa St had his team go 3-8, 2-9, 1-10, 3-8 and 4-7 his first FIVE years. Can you imagine an AD in today’s climate sticking with this guy? The Cyclones then went to 5 bowl games in McCarney’s last 7 years from 2000-’06. Then the new AD let McCarney go and they have went just 12-25 since! Bill Snyder went 1-10 at Kansas St in his first year and had 3 losing seasons his first 4 years but they stuck with him and he rewarded them with 11 straight bowl appearances, making them a National Title contender. Kentucky fans weren’t too thrilled when Rich Brooks was hired in 2003 and he inherited a team that had just 68 scholarship players. The Brooks era began with 3 losing seasons (9-25) but he rebounded to lead Kentucky to four straight bowl berths in the tough SEC. As you can see, sometimes patience is a virtue.

BAYLORED

OK let’s take a look at the Baylor situation. Constant head coaching changes are a bad thing. The coach inherits another coach’s recruits and many times they not only don’t fit his system but they signed with the school because of the other coaching staff. Many times personality or disciplinary conflicts arise and many players leave a program after the coaching change, leaving a team short on scholarships. I call this section “Baylored” because that school provides the most prominent example of how constant head coaching changes can hurt a program. Let’s go back to 1996. Baylor had 5 out of 6 winning years despite facing their tough SWC foes on a weekly basis. They were 7-5 in 1994 and 7-4 in 1995 and the amazing part was that HC Chuck Reedy was bringing in recruiting classes on par with teams like Texas and Texas A&M, even finishing ahead of the big boys some years! In this day and age a winning record for a Big 12 team would make them a perennial bowl team. In 1996 they had a nightmare season as the team was besieged by injuries and also dropped some close games like a 28-24 loss to Oklahoma, a 28-23 loss to Texas and a triple OT loss 49-42 to Missouri (those type of losses would look pretty good currently). They still finished 4-7 and clearly, if not for the injuries, could have had a winning season. Amazingly Baylor FIRED Coach Reedy! They have played THIRTEEN years of football since and have topped three wins in a season just 4 TIMES in that span (5 in ’05, 4 in ’06 and 4 the last two seasons)! First they brought in Dave Roberts in 1997 then after two losing seasons fired him! They brought in Kevin Steele and gave him 4 years before the axe fell. As mentioned with constant coaching changes, keeping the full complement of scholarship players has been a problem. Baylor has a record of 14-98 in the Big 12 and some years have been outgained by an avg of over 200 ypg in league play. Guy Morriss is the latest firing at Baylor as he had a 5-6 season in ’05 (4-1 start) and was given 5 years but continues the “Baylored” tradition.

FLIGHT DELAY

They do not run the option in the NFL so this category strictly applies to the college game. I have said many times over the last few years that it takes 3-4 years for an option team to successfully move to a pass offense. Why does such a switch take so long? A college team is basically built from 5 different recruiting classes with the classes from 3, 4 and 5 years ago being the most important. A college coach who runs an option offense can be very successful in the college game. To be a success he must be able to bring in big, powerful run blocking offensive linemen who are known more for power than pass blocking. His choice of WR’s is generally not made on the guy that will make the most catches but the one who may be the best downfield blocker. The QB’s in an option offense are valued more for their mobility than for their passing accuracy. When a coach comes in and tries to move to a pro style passing offense or a pure passing offense, he finds himself ill-equipped to do so. He needs fleet pass catching WR’s, QB’s who are known for their accurate passing and a solid pass blocking line. By the time a coach recruits those types of players and the starters spots are taken by those type of recruits, it is usually at least two years down the road and possibly 3 or 4. Two big name schools recently went through the switch and their struggles bear out what a difficult transition it can be.

Notre Dame was a run based attack under Lou Holtz with option style QB’s and continued in the same vein after his departure. When Ty Willingham took over he inherited a team that avg’d 102 ypg passing the previous year hitting 50% with a 4-11 ratio. The top 2 QB’s combined to throw for just 1,071 yards but had 893 gross yards rushing. While ND did win their first 8 games under Willingham, it was hardly due to offensive prowess. They had just 11 FD’s and 203 TOTAL yards on offense in a win over Purdue. Later they had 10 FD’s and 185 TOTAL yards on offense in a win vs Pitt. That offense averaged just 313 ypg with the QB’s hitting 50.4%. The next season they brought in a pure passing QB, Brady Quinn. Quinn however was a freshmen and the offense was just in its second year so he was not yet surrounded by the O-line and receivers which you need in a West Coast offense. He threw for 1,831 yards but only completed 47.3% with a 9-15 ratio. The third year of the offense showed solid improvement as you would expect. Quinn upped the totals to 2,586 yards passing, improved to 54.1% completions and had a 17-10 ratio. In 2005, with all 11 offensive starters back and in the 4th year of the switch, Charlie Weis stepped into a great situation and Quinn exploded with 3,919 yards passing (64.9%) with a 32-7 ratio. There were no Jeff Samardzija-types on the roster in Willingham’s first year but thanks to his recruiting, the team was much better equipped to run the pro offense under Weis. In 2006 with 3 solid receiving options, Quinn had 3,426 yards passing (61.9%) with a 37-7 ratio.

When Nebraska hired Bill Callahan he stunned the Husker faithful by announcing that he was ditching the option offense and converting to a pro style pass attack. Some said it was about time and thought he would have immediate success. The 2003 NU team was a solid 10-3. I did not make a lot of friends in Lincoln when the next year in my magazine I picked Iowa St, who had finished 2-10 the previous year to finish AHEAD of Nebraska in the Big 12 North! Joe Dailey threw for 2,025 yards which was the most at that school since Dave Humm way back in 1972. Unfortunately, he completed just 49.4% of his passes with a 17-19 ratio and the Huskers had their first losing season since 1961! Now, let’s not pin the whole thing on Dailey. He was recruited as an option QB and had OL’s in front of him that were recruited for run blocking who were just learning the pass blocking schemes. He also did not have a fleet of pass catching WR’s like most passing schools have. Callahan looked to speed up the system so he went the JUCO route (something ND did not do). He brought in PS#18JC QB Zac Taylor (no freshman QB growing pains), JC WR’s and OL’s. Despite bringing in JUCO’s, the offense did not take off right away. In the first two games vs IA foes in the 2nd year of the offense, they avg’d 104 ypg passing with just 45% completions. The unit got better as the season went on and Taylor threw for 392 yards generating 30 points vs Colorado in the season finale. For the season NU still completed just 53.8% and only increased their passing yards by 37 ypg. In 2006 they improved to 244 ypg passing and 59.4% completions and topped that in 2007 with 324 ypg pass (61.5%).

SOME TOUGH SHOES TO FILL

Following a legend is never easy. Vince Lombardi had an incredible run with the Green Bay Packers but after 4 straight NFL titles, stepped down. Phil Bengston was the unlucky guy who took over a team where anything less than an NFL title would be considered a weak season. Unfortunately he not only failed to bring home a championship but suffered 2 losing seasons in 3 years before being fired after going 6-8 in 1970. Ron Zook had the misfortune of being the guy who took over for Steve Spurrier at Florida. A few days after taking the job www.fireronzook.com got started and anything less than an undefeated season and National Title was construed as a failure. Here are a few other coaches that stepped into tough spots. Dennis Franchione left TCU after a great 10-2 season to take the job at Alabama. Gary Patterson unfortunately went 6-6 his first year but did flirt with an unbeaten season in 2003. At Ohio Jim Grobe had one of the best seasons at the school in recent memory in 2000 going 7-4 and contending for the MAC Title. He left for the ACC and Brian Knorr inherited raised expectations and was let go after 4 losing seasons. Tommy Bowden led Tulane to a 12-0 season in 1998 with 16 returning starters. He left for Clemson and Chris Scelfo inherited a rebuilding squad and had nowhere to go but down in his first year. They went just 3-8 but he did guide them to two winning seasons.

Some coaches have stepped into this type of tough situation and thrived. Urban Meyer led Utah to a super 12-0 season and left for Florida. His assistant Kyle Whittingham has guided the Utes to 5 winning seasons including a 13-0 #2 finish in 2008. Mike Price led Wash St to their first ever back-to-back 10-win seasons in the school’s history before bolting for Alabama. Longtime assistant Bill Doba took over and led them to ANOTHER 10-win season and a Holiday Bowl win over #5 Texas. Dirk Koetter left Boise St after a 10-2 season, their best ever, and while Dan Hawkins’ first squad “only” went 8-4, he did a remarkable job there going 45-7 in the next 4 years before moving on to Colorado. In 2006 Chris Petersen, who had been the longtime OC at Boise St, stepped in and as I forecasted in my 2006 magazine, took the team to a BCS bowl berth and an undefeated season after their win vs Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl.

RIGHT PLACE, RIGHT TIME

There are just some coaching openings that have early success written all over them. In 2004 for example I pointed out many times in the magazine that UTEP’s Mike Price was stepping into a great spot. Gary Nord took over at UTEP and guided the team to an 8-4 record and a rare bowl in his first year. He opted to build the program the right way by getting away from bringing in JUCO’s and he not only signed almost all freshmen but redshirted most of them, building the team’s depth. He suffered through 3 losing seasons but had put all of his eggs in the basket of the 2004 season, as he knew he would have success with a deep and veteran squad. Unfortunately they fired him so Mike Price took over a team that was -15 in turnovers the previous year and was just 2-11. When a new head coach comes into some early season success it gives a losing team new found confidence. They then buy into the new coach’s program more quickly. UTEP went on to their 1st back-to-back winning seasons since ’87-’88 and benefited thanks to Nord biting the bullet and taking those redshirts. Keith Burns was doing the same thing at Tulsa and also did not catch many breaks his last few years as his team was hit hard by injuries. His final team had just 9 seniors and naturally new head coach Steve Kragthorpe inherited a team with the most returning starters in the WAC (17). Some early season success had them more confident and the team rewarded the new guy going from 1-11 to 8-4 and a bowl berth. Urban Meyer took over a Utah team that was one of the most snakebitten teams in the NCAA in 2002. Between 2000-2002, Utah was among the MWC leaders in ypg vs conference foes and in 2000 and 2002 finished with losing seasons overall despite outgaining and outscoring their opponents on the year. In 2002 they had FIVE losses by 8 pts or less! The talent was there and when Meyer achieved some early season success, the team started gaining confidence and won those close games that had escaped his predecessor Ron McBride. Just two years later they were undefeated. There were 12 new coaches in 2005 and few success stories besides the heavily publicized hires of Charlie Weis, Florida’s Urban Meyer and LSU’s Les Miles. Bronco Mendenhall took over a snakebitten BYU team that had 3 close losses and outgained league foes by 54.6 ypg, 2nd best in the MWC in ’04, taking them to a bowl in ’05. Meanwhile, Bill Cubit of W Michigan, took a 1-10 team to a 7-4 record becoming bowl eligible.

TYPICAL 1ST YEAR HEAD COACH

When looking over the list of new coaches this year, I decided to add a new category to my repertoire titled “Typical 1st-Year Head Coach”. Typically when a HC takes over, there is a learning curve in the 1st year. The HC has to learn the player’s strengths and weaknesses and the players must learn new schemes on both sides of the ball. Generally with these circumstances, the team is not as experienced as they seem to be as many of the returning starters could lose their jobs under the new regime. These coaches in the near future will be achieving some success but the outlook in the first year is not as good.

Now let’s take a look at some of this year’s head coaching changes and I will put them into some of the categories listed above. Keep in mind many of this year’s new guys will go through the typical 1st years that I described previously.

2010 NEW COACHES

RIGHT PLACE RIGHT TIME:

The last 5 years I have had 34 coaches mentioned in this section. 27 of the 34 (79.4%) have improved their teams records (2 had same record). In 2006, Chris Petersen of Boise St took over a 9-4 team and guided them to a perfect 13-0 and a BCS bowl win. In 2007 Dennis Erickson took a 7-6 ASU squad to an 8-0 start and #6 in the country. In 2008, Houston Nutt took a 3-8 Ole Miss squad to a Cotton Bowl victory. Bo Pelini of Nebraska took over a 5-7 Husker squad and guided them to a tie for the Big 12 North Title. Coach Jerry Kill of Northern Illinois inherited a 2-10 squad and guided them to a bowl. Last year, I went a perfect 9 for 9 as every coach I listed guided their team to a better record. Gene Chizik took over a 5-7 Auburn team and led the Tigers to a 8-5 record including a New Year’s Day bowl win. Lane Kiffin also took over a 5-7 team and led the Volunteers to a 7-win regular season before departing for USC. Dabo Swinney inherited a 7-6 Clemson team and guided them to 9 wins and a division title as the Tigers made their first appearance in the ACC Title game. Steve Sarkisian did a great job at Washington in his first year as he took over a team that was just 0-12 in ’08 and led them to 5 wins. Also Bill Snyder in his second stint at Kansas St nearly led the Wildcats to a division title last year.

JIMBO FISHER, FLORIDA ST

Florida St has underachieved the last several years and unlike most new head coaches Fisher does not have to learn the players’ strengths and weaknesses as he has been the OC at FSU the past three seasons. I also feel that Fisher has taken away some of the game-day duties from coach Bowden the past couple of years and steps into a great situation as the team has not had double digit wins since ’03. The Seminoles are loaded on offense and get most of their toughest ACC foes at home as 7 of my 9 sets of power ratings call for a double digit win season!

BRIAN KELLY, NOTRE DAME

Kelly inherits a Notre Dame program that has vastly underachieved recently and even has a losing record the past 3 years. This year he inherits plenty of talent and Kelly always gets the most out of his players. While the defense gave up a school-record 398 ypg last year, 9 starters return and Kelly’s defense at Cincinnati performed admirably last year with just one returning starter. Kelly is the only coach in the history of the magazine to beat me six straight years and while he inherits an inexperienced QB, I would not worry too much as he led Cincinnati to a Big East title in ‘08 with FIVE different QBs!

SKIP HOLTZ, USF

There seems to be a recurring theme here as we are seeing coaches who get the most out of their talent inheriting underachieving programs. USF despite climbing into the AP Top 10 in two of the past three seasons tallied off late in the season and failed to finish in the Top 25. The Bulls were probably the most “athletically” talented team in the Big East the last three years while Holtz only had the 3rd or 4th most talented teams in CUSA the last couple of years but has two CUSA title rings on his fingers.

TURNER GILL, KANSAS

Personally I feel that last year’s team led by QB Todd Reesing and WRs Kerry Meier and Dezmon Briscoe is stronger than this year’s Kansas team. However, the Jayhawks caught Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech out of Big 12 South last year. This year they play none of those teams and have a much better schedule this year. Turner Gill did a great job at Buffalo and despite personnel wise being a little weaker this year, I think they have a great shot at bowl eligibility.

SONNY DYKES, LOUISIANA TECH

Derek Dooley did not leave the cupboard bare as he did a good job of recruiting and a good portion of the freshman were red shirted last year. The Bulldogs only lose 12 letterman from a 4-8 team that did not catch a lot of breaks last year with 3 net close losses. Despite their 3-5 record in conference play the Bulldogs were +27.9 ypg (4th best in WAC). All 9 of my sets call for bowl eligibility this year and an 8 or 9 win season is possible.

MIKE LONDON, VIRGINIA

Virginia did not catch a lot of breaks the last two years going just 8-16. Prior to ’08 the Cavaliers had been to 5 bowls in the previous 6 years, London steps into a good situation with the program having a newfound enthusiasm and will be favored in at least 3 games this year. While it will be tough playing in the brutal Coastal division with Miami, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and North Carolina plus drawing Florida St and Boston College from the Atlantic, Virginia has a solid shot at improving upon last year’s record.

WILLIE TAGGART, WKU

I like the job former HC David Elson did moving WKU from I-AA up to the FBS. The team really played its heart out for him last year but they suffered 3, 6 and 4-point losses blowing late leads in the last 3 games. This year Taggart inherits a team that returns 18 starters and while there won’t be a lot of wins on their platter this year, it only takes one to improve.

TYPICAL 1ST-YEAR HEAD COACH

CHARLIE STRONG, LOUISVILLE

I am very bullish on Charlie Strong at Louisville and I think it is a strong hire. Strong will bring lots of energy to a program that was 12-1 in ’06 but went just 15-21 under former HC Kragthorpe including just 5-16 in Big East play. This year the Cardinals have a tough schedule and return only 4 starters on defense. While I expect them to be more competitive on the field this year, they were -104 ypg in Big East play last year and return just 39% of their tackles (5th fewest in the NCAA). Strong will have them competing for a bowl game next year as they will be going up in the Big East standings, but this year they will have a tough time improving on last year’s 4-win total.

MIKE MACINTYRE, SAN JOSE ST

I got to speak to Coach MacIntyre this past off-season and came away very impressed. He has a plan to create his defense in the image of TCU but unfortunately has a depth-shy team and a lot of players will be playing different positions. The schedule is also brutal with Alabama, Wisconsin and Utah all coming on the road in the first four games. I think Dick Tomey did a great job leading San Jose St to 2 non-losing seasons in the last 4 years including a 9-4 finish in ’06 and I expect Coach MacIntyre to have the Spartan program on the upswing in the coming years after suffering a typical 1st-year HC season.

BOBBY HAUCK, UNLV

Hauck steps into a solid situation as UNLV could have been bowl-bound the last two years as they suffered some tough losses. Hauck had a solid record at Montana and inherits 15 returning starters this year but unfortunately the Rebels face a tough schedule (#25) and they will only be favored in a hand full of games. While the situation and head coach is solid, the Rebels could suffer a decrease in wins typical of a first-year head coach.

ROB IANELLO, AKRON

Former head coach JD Brookhart had two winning seasons his first two years before suffering four straight losing seasons and this year Ianello inherits only 13 returning starters. While Akron will have better fortune in TO’s and injuries this year, they must learn entirely new schemes and may not top last year’s win total.

LARRY PORTER, MEMPHIS

I got to speak to Coach Porter at the CUSA media days and came away very impressed, as he is a solid recruiter. He inherits a Memphis team that went just 2-10 last year after going to bowl games in five of the six previous years. While I think he will have the Tigers playing with a new enthusiasm this year, they do lose 25 letterman and face a brutal schedule, which has them facing the top four CUSA teams at home. There is a possibility that they could be an underdog in all 12 games this year. That does not mean they will lose all 12 but topping last year’s 2-win total will be tough.

DOC HOLLIDAY, MARSHALL

It’s about dang time Doc Holliday landed a head coaching job as it was talked about every off-season for several years and I think he will do a fine job at Marshall. However the Thundering Herd did win 7 games last year achieving their first winning season since 2003. They might find a difficult time topping that this year as Holliday has lost three of my projected starters so far this summer and may go thru the typical 1st-year struggles.

TOUGH SHOES TO FILL

The last 5 years I have had 17 coaches listed in this category. Three coaches in 2005 had their teams go from a combined 25-11 (69%) in 2004 to 15-19 (44%) in 2005. In 2007 four coaches were in the box and 3 had weaker records including Tim Brewster at Minnesota who took over a bowl squad and went 1-11. The one coach that improved his team’s record went from 10-3 to 11-3. In ‘08 I had 4 coaches listed in the box and of the 4 coaches, only one (Steve Fairchild, Colorado St) managed to improve his team’s record but keep in mind the Rams were coming off a 3-9 season.

BUTCH JONES, CINCINNATI

I’m a big fan of Butch Jones and I even mentioned him as being great possible hire for Cincinnati in my December 13 Blog before he was announced as head coach. But how do you top 12-0? How do you top back-to-back Big East titles and back-to-back BCS bowl games? There is no question he has some big shoes to fill but he has done it before at Central Michigan.

RUFFIN MCNEILL, EAST CAROLINA

I met Coach McNeill at the CUSA media days and was very impressed. I think he will stay at East Carolina for a long time and have good success. Unfortunately he takes over a team that was only the 3rd or 4th most talented in the conference but won a pair of CUSA titles the last two seasons.  They will struggle to match that success this year as he inherits a team that returns just 8 starters and loses 30 lettermen. East Carolina also returns just 38% of their tackles which is 2nd fewest in the country and were +11 in TO’s last year. While McNeill will have the Pirates in the near future atop the CUSA standings, they could go from back-to-back titles to a losing season this year.

JOKER PHILLIPS, KENTUCKY

Naturally the SEC is a super competitive conference and when former HC Rich Brooks was hired not a lot of fans were happy (see slow starters). After 3 losing seasons, Brooks rewarded their faith with spades as he led them to four straight bowls and an overall 30-22 record as the Wildcats have had 10 upsets in the last four years! This was quite an accomplishment at a school predominately known as a basketball power. While Phillips steps into a good situation, as he has been the coach-in-waiting and knows the current players, it will be tough to duplicate four straight bowls in the rugged SEC.

DAN ENOS, CENTRAL MICHIGAN

Enos inherits a program that has won 3 of the last 4 MAC Titles but this year the Chippewas lose record-setting QB LeFevour as well as WRs Brown and Anderson. Central is changing schemes on both sides of the ball and has only five home games this year. After all the success of the past four years, there is really only one way to go.

BAYLORED

In 2005 the whole reason for me to write this article was the ridiculous firing of coach Cutcliffe at Mississippi where he had done a GREAT job. I think it may be decades before you see Ole Miss bowl eligible for 5 straight years and go to 5 bowls in a 6-year stretch like they did under Cutcliffe. In 2007, I had Rice and Idaho listed here due to constant coaching changes. Idaho went from 4-8 to 1-11 and Rice went from a bowl game to 3-9. In ‘08 I put Southern Miss here as Larry Fedora had one of 5 teams in the NCAA that had 14 straight winning years. The Golden Eagles opened 2-6 and it appeared that a losing season was a given but rebounded to win their final 5 games of the year and match their 2007 record of 7-6. Last year I had Frank Spaziani here as the Eagles went from 11 wins in ’07 to 9 wins in ’08 and followed that up with 8 wins last year.

DEREK DOOLEY, TENNESSEE

Anytime a school has three head coaches in three years you are going to see a lot of attrition. At Tennessee, there have been 3 drastically different head coaches as several Fulmer recruited players left last year when Kiffin took over and this year several Kiffin recruited players have departed. The Volunteers could be under 70 scholarships this season and face a brutal schedule in which they will be a heavy underdog in six games. Tennessee will probably have to sweep November just to get to a bowl game and it will take a few years to reclaim their spot atop the SEC. While I think Dooley is a very good hire as he did a decent job at Louisiana Tech, topping last year’s 7 win total will probably not happen.

NO DESIGNATION

In 2007 I created this category. Some new coaches have conflicting things working for them and it is tough to toss them into any one category above. Of the six I tossed in this category in ‘08, three had miserable seasons for their schools (Texas A&M, UCLA, Washington St) and W Virginia was disappointing. Baylor and Georgia Tech, however, had more success than most thought they would. Last year I had 7 coaches here and like ’08, they had mixed results. Eastern Michigan, and Miami, Oh had miserable seasons while Iowa St and Wyoming had better seasons than expected.

JEFF QUINN, BUFFALO

Buffalo won the MAC title in ’08 and last year went 5-7. This year they return 14 returning starters and have a good shot at bowl eligibility. However, they lose a solid coach in Turner Gill and it will be interesting to see if Quinn can get Buffalo back to a MAC title game in the near future.

TODD BERRY, ULM

While Charlie Weatherbie did not lead ULM to a single bowl game in his 7 years, I thought he did a solid job last year improving the defense as they allowed 3.3 ypc (5.7 in ’08). Unfortunately they finished just 6-6 losing their final two games. I was not impressed with what Todd Berry did at Army and I think ULM will drop off of their 6-win total from last year.

ROBBIE CALDWELL, VANDERBILT

I think this is one of the toughest coaching jobs in the country and personally it is one job I would not take as you have an academic school trying to compete in the toughest football conference. If Caldwell took over last year, I would have placed this in the Tough Shoes to Fill category as Bobby Johnson did a great job guiding Vandy to a 7-6 season in ‘08. However, this year Vandy is coming off just a two-win season. Caldwell was a breath of fresh air at the SEC media days and this year will be entertaining to say the least but the wins will be few once again.

LANE KIFFIN, USC

You might be thinking that it is a no-brainer to put Kiffin in the tough shoes to fill category as he is saddled with sanctions, suspensions and transfers. With the Trojans on probation they could be in a similar situation to what Alabama and Miami, Fl faced when they were on probation. However, the reason I put Kiffin here is that USC was only 9-4 last year and I think they will take on an “us vs. them” mentality. I still have USC projected to win the Pac-10 title and if they catch all the right breaks and stay injury free, they do have an outside shot at a 13-0 season. If Kiffin does stay eight years at USC, he will come nowhere near Pete Carroll’s 101-13 record that he achieved in his last 8 years.

TOMMY TUBERVILLE, TEXAS TECH

I think Tuberville is a solid hire and after going thru the schedule I think Tech could have an 8, 9 or 10 win season possibly. Unfortunately he is taking over for the unique Mike Leach who recruited differently, went for it on 4th down a lot and never met a pass he didn’t like. With Tuberville focusing on the run more this year, it is such a big tweak that I wonder if they will be as successful this season.

Only 13 Days Until the First College Football Game!!

The college football season is fast approaching and in today’s blog I will give you a sneak peak at some of the early marquee college football non-conference games and how I think they will shake out as of right now. Also included is your current voting tallies for each of these games.

Remember if you visit the homepage right now, you can get a head start on voting in the Non-Conference Poll with all the non-conference games. To see where you rank against other voters, as soon as your vote is entered in, you will see the % stacked with or against you. In the next day or two the four remaining non-BCS conferences will be added on the front page. The Non-Conference Poll will run until Sunday, Aug 29th. On Monday the 30th, look for the Weekly Polls to start. There are games every day Thursday September 2nd thru Monday September 6th as the first week of the season looks to kick off with a bang! Weekly prizes will be awarded throughout the season.

Marquee Early Non-Conference Match-ups
With Your Current Voting % on Top

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Pitt at Utah Sept 2nd. Utah won in the 2004 Fiesta Bowl 35-7 (only previous meeting). Pitt is #107 in my Experience Chart (page 311 of TY’s mag) while Utah is #57. Utah’s altitude edge is expanded because they have been home all month. Pitt has a young QB and O-Line making their first road starts at night in front of a loud and enthusiastic crowd. Utah is 17-1 at home the last 3 yrs and will be fired up for this one. Utah 27-24.

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Connecticut at Michigan Sept 4th. Michigan is expanding the stadium and in doing so it is more enclosed and will be louder, holding in more sound. Rich Rod was 4-0 vs Connecticut in Big East play and is in the 3rd year at Michigan, which is usually a break thru season. Michigan was 5-2 at one point last year and this is a MUST win for UM. Michigan 27-24.

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Oregon St vs TCU Sept 4th. (Arlington) Texas is not a neutral site for these teams however three things have been very consistent under Mike Riley: 1. They usually finish higher in the Pac 10 than what I forecast 2. Experienced QB’s fare much better than 1st year QB’s in his system and 3. Oregon St struggles on the road the first month of the season. TCU is legit and will be sky high for a BCS conference foe led by a 1st year QB. TCU 27-13.

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LSU vs North Carolina (Atlanta) Sept 4. Great battle between the SEC vs ACC. LSU was actually outgained last year 305-328 despite their 9 wins. North Carolina meanwhile was 8-5 but had a 308-270 yd edge on the year. NC has 19 returning starters and their defense is LOADED with NFL prospects (could have 5 picks in 1st or 2nd round). LSU only has 10 returning starters so they are less experienced. I will call for the upset. NC 17-13.

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Boise St vs Virginia Tech Sept 6th. This is a true national title elimination game and both deserve to be in the Top 10. While this is a “neutral” site it is right in VT’s back yard and Boise must fly across the country. VT has a tremendous backfield and being the lower ranked team will feel like the underdog. Last year they whipped Miami, Fla in a similar situation. Virginia Tech 30-27.

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Michigan at Notre Dame Sept 11th. There have been 6 straight outright upsets when these two meet in South Bend! UM is just 2-8 in road openers. Last year Michigan got a TD with :11 left to pull the upset at home. It is my #3 Most Improved team vs my #5 MIP team. UM rates a slight edge on offense while ND has the defense and home edges. Notre Dame 31-27.

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Florida St at Oklahoma Sept 11. Both teams have explosive offenses but OU has a huge edge on defense as they allowed just 273 ypg in ’09 and lose 11 letterman with 5 starters back and FSU allowed 435 ypg and lose 12 letterman (6 starters back). FSU was out gained by an avg of 421-435 last year while OU even in an 8-5 year had a 424-273 yard edge. OU is 61-2 at home this past decade and FSU is on a 4-9 run vs ranked tms. OKLAHOMA 37-27.

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Miami Fla at Ohio St Sept 11. Miami only had one unit not in my top units in the front of the magazine and that was Offensive line but they just added PS#1 Henderson from USC. Two exciting QB’s and top 6 defenses. My picks to win the ACC and the Big Ten. Shannon is 4-7 vs ranked teams while Tressell is 31-14 and Ohio St is at home for this. OHIO STATE 30-20.

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Oregon at Tennessee Sept 11th. Tennessee has the large edge of the heat and humidity of the South vs a team from the Northwest. Oregon has the edge of having a much deeper and experienced team with 17 returning starters from last year’s Rose bowl squad. Tennessee has their 3rd HC in 3 years and suffered a lot of attrition and has just 9 returning starters. UT takes it to the wire but…OREGON 27-20.

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Penn State at Alabama Sept 11. Penn St has 6 units that rank in my top units of the front of the magazine and Bama does have just 2 returning starters on D. The key here is Penn St has a QB making his first road start vs a Top 10 D in front of a loud home crowd. Alabama 30-20.

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Arizona St at Wisconsin Sept 18. The Badgers are loaded this year with 16 returning starters from a 10-3 #14 squad that dominated Miami in the bowl game. Arizona St was just 4-8 last year and has just 9 returning starters BUT their defense was #13 in the country last year allowing just 298 ypg! This wont be the mismatch most expect but UW at home wins 28-18.

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Clemson at Auburn Sept 18 – Less than 250 miles apart. Clemson faced two weak teams and has a bye on deck so this is their “A” game for September while Auburn is in an SEC sandwich. Auburn is #26 in my experience chart and Clemson is #56. Auburn is #22 in my Power Poll (and at home) and Clemson #36 and is replacing Spiller and Ford, their two game breakers. AUBURN 30-27.

Only 15 Days Until the First College Football Game!!

As you know I’ve always spent about 90% of my time on college football but I am very excited about our NFL Magazine. I have the same desire to mirror my success of being college footballs “most accurate” magazine by becoming the most accurate NFL Magazine as well. In this years magazine (which is now available) I project each of the division races with records. I want to share just how much work and research goes into making these forecasts.

I’ve posted several articles on my blog including: repeating as a division champ and slipping and sliding can help you analyze a teams fortunes. These are just part of the research I do annually to make my predictions. The schedule is of course an important part of analyzing the upcoming season.

Listed below are the rankings from the NFL for the 2010 season for the toughest schedule. They are based on the 2009 records of the opponents they will face this year. While this method is decent in determining how tough an opponent’s schedule is for the next season it does have a flaw as not all teams are the same strength they were last year. For example, I think Washington who struggled through a disappointing season will be one of the most improved teams in the NFL & is a surprise contender for the NFC East. They are only counted as being a 4-12 team in this method.

Toughest Schedules for 2010 (NFL Method)

Now I have compiled my list of toughest schedules based on my preseason Power Ratings of each team, and again this year I have added a portion of the formula to incorporate the NFL’s statistical model. I feel this method is much more accurate because injuries, offseason personnel & coaching changes are not factored into the NFL ratings while they are in my rankings. My list of who will face the toughest schedules for the 2010 season uses my FIVE sets of Power Ratings with the records for last year only counting for about 20% of the grade. Here is my list:

Toughest Schedules for 2010 (My Method)

Let’s take a look at some of the major discrepancies between the NFL’s toughest schedule and my rankings. Jacksonville is listed as playing the #5 toughest schedule while my rankings list them at #16. Some of the factors for the difference are that they play Philadelphia who went to the playoffs last year but I expect to have a losing season and they also play the weak AFC West, which I expect to have a down year.

I believe my way of rating the schedules has proved to be most accurate but that is not the only way we analyze schedules. At the end of the year I took my final power ratings for half the grade, and the final win-loss record for the year for the other half of the toughest schedule grade, and came up with my POST 2009 toughest schedules. Here is that list.

Post 2009 Toughest Schedules

According to the NFL’s way of figuring the toughest schedule New Orleans went into 2009 with the 8th most difficult schedule. Their opponents had a .557 win %. The Saints started the season 13-0, before losing their final 3 regular season games after locking up the #1 NFC seed vs the #21 schedule overall. On the opposite end the Ravens had the NFL’s #28 schedule but in reality had the #3 schedule. Last year the NFL method had Miami playing the TOUGHEST schedule & my rankings also had the Dolphins at #2 and they actually faced the #2 schedule.

This year I will look at teams whose schedule has changed by 18 or more spots in comparison to the post 2009 schedule. Here are teams that should IMPROVE their record due to facing a softer slate: New York Jets (18 spots easier) and Tampa Bay (18). Last year Cincinnati went from 4-11-1 to winning the AFC North after a 26 spot schedule switch.

Here are teams that face much tougher schedules this year and will probably see their records drop some. The Packers go from having the #31 schedule to now having the league’s #11 ranked schedule (20 spots). Others with much tougher slates are Washington (22), Philadelphia (18), Chicago (12), Detroit (12), Cincinnati (10) Houston (10) and Buffalo (10). Last year Tampa Bay, which was 9-7 in ’08, was inlcuded in this article and went 3-13.

In the last four years 34 teams have been included in my schedule analysis and of the 14 teams that had much easier schedules twelve have improved their record (85.7%) and 16 of 20 with much tougher scedules had weaker records with 3 teams having the same record as the year before (95%).

Can the strength of schedule make a difference? In 2002, Tampa Bay drew an easy schedule by playing in a soft division. That would brighten their playoff hopes and they won the Super Bowl. In 2005, Seattle had the #31 schedule helping them withstand injury losses to QB Hasselbeck and RB Alexander while the Bears used the #32 ranked schedule in 2006 to roll to the Super Bowl with a 13-3 regular season mark. In 2007 Cleveland faced the #31 schedule and had the improbable run from 4-12 to 10-6. In 2008 Miami used the #28 schedule to their advantage & won the AFC East in one of the best turnarounds in NFL history. Last year Cincinnati went from facing the #2 toughest schedule to #15 and improved from a half game ahead of the last place Browns to winning the AFC North Title.

Make sure to pick up Phil Steele’s NFL Preview on a newsstand near you for just $7.95. If you cannot find the magazine you can always order online at the PhilSteele.com Store. The cost is just $12.70 which inlcudes priority shipping.

Only 20 Days Until the First College Football Game!!

For the next two weeks, I will be taking a look at the conference teams of the decade for 2000-2009. Factored into my analysis will be conference win %, conference and division titles, bowl games and bowl wins. I will also include BCS bowl wins, final AP rankings and number of national championships for the major conferences. There have been several teams who have changed conferences during that time and I will include them in the analysis for any season(s) they were affiliated with that certain conference. I will also be doing a breakdown of how the conference did in bowl games during the decade and I will emphasis the overall win/loss record, the number of BCS bowl wins, and the records against Non-BCS and ranked bowl teams.

While some conferences may have no-brainers as the top team, other conferences were very competitive over the past decade. Here is the schedule for the upcoming week with the conferences I will be analyzing on each date.

June 28 Sun Belt 
June 29 MAC 
June 30 WAC 
July 1 CUSA 
July 2 MWC 
July 3-4 Big East 
Monday Pac-10 
Tuesday ACC 
Wednesday Big 12 
Yesterday Big 10 
Today SEC 
Weekend Conference Bowl Records

The SEC has dominated college football in the past decade and is an automatic answer when anyone asks me what the best conference is. The SEC has now won four straight National Titles and had five total in the past decade. In the past 10 years several great coaching hires have made this conference so strong with four of the current coaches having won a national title and six of them have at least one BCS Bowl win at some point in their career. This year looks like it will be another strong year for the conference and the big question is can the SEC make it 5 straight National Titles?

But for now let’s look back at the previous decade and here are my overall rankings for SEC team of the decade.

SEC Rankings 2000-2009

Rk	Team	Wins	Losses	Win %	Titles	Div Titles	# of Bowls	Bowl Wins	AP Top 25	AP Top 10	BCS Bowl Wins	Natl Champ
1	Florida	61	19	76.30%	3	4	10	5	8	5	4	2
2	LSU	55	25	68.80%	3	4	10	7	8	5	4	2
3	Georgia	55	25	68.80%	2	3	10	8	9	5	2	0
4	Auburn	52	28	65%	1	2	9	6	6	2	1	0
5	Alabama	46	34	57.50%	1	2	7	4	4	3	1	1
6	Tennessee	51	29	63.80%	0	3	8	3	5	1	0	0

This was a tough call for me as Florida and LSU both had three overall conference titles, 4 division titles, 10 bowls, 8 AP Top 25 finishes, 5 Top 10’s, 4 BCS Bowl wins and 2 national titles. One could make an argument that these two teams were the top programs in all of the country for the past decade (USC, Oklahoma, Texas and Ohio St are the others). While LSU fared better in bowl games, Florida had six more conference wins and were 6-4 in head-to-head matchups vs the Tigers (avg score 26-17) so they get my nod for SEC team of the decade!

Coming in at #3 is Georgia who clearly was ahead of the other schools with two overall titles, 3 division titles, 9 AP Top 25 finishes (#1 SEC), 5 AP Top 10’s and 2 BCS wins. While he is currently feeling some heat after finishing 8-5 LY, HC Mark Richt has done a good job here and I think they will top LY’s win total and they are prime contenders in the SEC East.

At #4 is Auburn who had an impressive 65% win % in league play and went to 9 bowl games. The Tigers grabbed an overall title in 2004 and came up just short of the national title. The Tigers get the nod over Alabama here because of their 7-3 record head-to-head (including six straight from 2002-2007) and they won six more games than the Tide in conference play. #5 Alabama has really come on strong the last couple of years going 16-0 in regular season conference play. The Tide would have finished higher but remember they did have six seasons where they finished .500 or below in conference play.

In the 90s Tennessee probably would have finished #2 in my rankings behind Florida. In the past decade however the Vols have slipped a little and despite having five more wins in conference play than the Crimson Tide, Tennessee gets my #6 vote. While they did appear in 8 bowl games, none of them were a BCS bowl and they had just one appearance in the final AP Top 10. With that being said there are a lot of programs that would love to have a 63.8% win % in the tough SEC and I think new HC Dooley will do a great job here.

Here are the overall bowl records for SEC teams during the past decade.

SEC Bowl Records ’00-’09

As you can see above, the SEC has been very impressive in bowl games the last ten years with an overall 60.8% win % including a 65.3% mark against ranked teams. Their 12-3 (80%) records in BCS games is outstanding and is just another key factor in the conference being the strongest in the country. There were several teams that fared well in bowl games led by Georgia who was 8-2 overall and 6-1 vs ranked teams. LSU was 7-3 overall in bowl games and were a perfect 4-0 in BCS bowls. Mississippi went 4-1 overall including an impressive 3-0 mark vs ranked teams.

Tomorrow I will take a look at all the conference’s bowl records and rank which conferences did best overall in the past decade.

We just posted my 2010 FCS All-Conference and All-American teams on the homepage yesterday and if you want to see if your favorite local team has any players on make sure to download them. Also please check PhilSteele.com everyday to get my FCS Top 25 Countdown, which continues with #12 Stephen F Austin. Thru July 20th, I will post both magazine pages on a new team ranked in the Top 25 and you can get an early look on how I breakdown your favorite FCS team. Remember those magazine pages are available for only 24 hours for you to download as the next team will be posted the following day.

Only 55 Days Until the First College Football Game!!!

The official on sale date for my 2010 College Football Preview was yesterday and if you do not already have a copy, head out to the bookstores and newsstands today. The magazine is available nationwide at Wal-Mart, Barnes & Noble, Waldenbooks, Borders, Hastings, Media Play, Target, Books-A-Million, K-Mart and Circle K. There are other locations where we shipped to, so check the magazine section at stores near you. The cost is just $8.95 in the stores but they tend to fly off the shelves. If you’re having trouble finding a copy visit our store or call 1-866-918-7711 and order your copy thru the office (plus shipping). 

The past few weeks I have been giving you some advanced articles from the magazine to wet your appetite for the upcoming year. Today I will give you the results of the Draft Day Party Hangover, which is on page 308.

After several years of research I have found that almost 7 out of every 10 teams that rank among the top in the NCAA in players drafted struggle the next year and have a weaker record. I call it the Draft Day Party Hangover Effect.

For the system I have created, 7 points are awarded if a player was picked in the 1st round. A 2nd round pick garners 5 points, a 3 round pick four, 4th round three and a 5th round two.  In the NFL there’s not much difference between a 6th or 7th round pick and a high quality undrafted free agent signee so I award 1 point to a 6th or 7th round pick. Using this point system I went back and plugged in the last 13 years’ draftees and found some interesting results. I limited my research to those teams that totaled 12 or more points, which makes them among the best in the NCAA.

I do eliminate a team from my list that totaled 12 or more points if that is less than the previous year’s total. Let’s face it, some programs turn out lots of draft picks every year and 12 is a low total for some teams. If you need more information please refer to pg 308 in this year’s College Preview magazine. 

Over the last 13 years teams that earned more points than the previous year and accumulated….

12 or more points – Weaker or same record 179 of 236 (75.8%)
24 or more points – Weaker or same record 49 of 58 (84.5%)
35 or more points – Weaker record 13 of 15 (86.7%)

With that in mind, this year there were 21 teams that earned 12 points or more from their losses in the NFL draft. Three teams on that list have LESS points than last year in USC (25), Oregon (12), Mississippi (12).

One thing I pointed out in past years is that the National Champ does have a good shot at appearing on these lists. In the past 13 years there have been 14 National Champs (LSU and USC were co-champs in ’03) with 12 of the 14 having earned 12 or more points in the draft the previous year. The only exceptions were ’06 Florida (7 pts) and ’08 Florida (11 pts). The two teams that overcame the biggest draft losses and still managed to win a title were the 2001 Miami Hurricanes, who had 34, and the 1998 Tennessee Volunteers (32). Seven of the 14 actually earned 20 or more points in the draft loss category. Last year’s champion Alabama had 19 points in the draft loss category.

According to past history, in reviewing the 18 teams in the box below, only 4 or 5 will manage to improve their record this year, BUT the National Champ is very likely to be one of the 18 teams on the Draft Day Hangover List.

For 2010, I did make one tweak as Oklahoma came up with 35 but Jermaine Gresham a #1 pick (7 pts) did not play a down so I took his numbers out (see asterisk above).

Please check PhilSteele.com everyday to get my Top 30 Countdown, which posted #9 Miami, Fl yesterday. Thru June 16th, I will post both magazine pages on a new team ranked in the Top 30 and you can get an early look on how I breakdown your favorite team. Remember those magazine pages are available for only 24 hours for you to download. Today, USC comes in at #8.

Only 85 DAYS LEFT UNTIL THE FIRST COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME!!!

In the past several blogs I have been breaking down each factor that goes into my New and Improved Experience Chart and today I conclude the series by combining the five factors into my final ranking.

For more than 7 years I have listed an experience chart, which broke down the number of seniors, juniors, sophomores and freshmen each team had in the two deep and rated the teams experience level with a formula I devised. Last year I made the experience chart FIVE TIMES better.

We still do the exact same chart but now I just list the Senior starters, the rest of the seniors in the two deep and the points accumulated by using the system I used from 2002-‘08. In the chart listed below I have now included 4 other factors. The 2nd factor listed in the chart below is the % of lettermen returning. I devised a point system for this and explain it in depth on page 319 of this year’s magazine. Also added was the % of returning offensive yards. I took the total yards passing, rushing and receiving for each team and divided out the yardage of the returning players and the yards returning % listed below is that figure. I did the same with the total tackles from last year and the % of tackles returning. This gives us an idea of the defense’s experience. The final factor is the career starts returning for the offensive line. These players are not included in the stats but are a vital part of the offense.

I then devised a formula that factors all 5 into the total points equation and then turned the point total into a number from 100 to 0. A 100 would be a team with 25 seniors (NCAA scholarship limit) in the two deep and every yard and tackle returning and 120+ career starts on the offensive line. A 0 would be a team with no experience and 0 seniors in the two deep. Just as in years past the first number is where each team ranks in the NCAA.

If you have been following the past couple of experience blogs, it should come at no surprise that Boise St has the most experience points for 2010 with 92, which is 12 points higher than #2 Arkansas. Utah St, Ball St and North Texas round out the Top 5 and all three of those teams are looking to improve upon last year. North Carolina is the 2nd highest BCS school with 77.8 pts.

At the bottom of the chart is #120 Oklahoma St who last year ranked #10 and the Cowboys are clearly less experienced this year. Tennessee comes in at #119 and HC Derek Dooley will not be the only new face on the Volunteer sidelines this fall. Bowling Green, Mississsippi and Arizona St round out the bottom 5.

Here is the complete New and Improved Experience Chart which is featured on page 311 in this year’s magazine.

Please check PhilSteele.com everyday to get my Top 30 Countdown, which posted #14 Iowa yesterday. Thru June 16th, I will post both magazine pages on a new team ranked in the Top 30 and you can get an early look on how I breakdown your favorite team. Remember those magazine pages are available for only 24 hours for you to download. Today, Virginia Tech comes in at #13.

Also the official on sale date of the magazine is June 8th, but a lot of people have already seen them in the bookstores where the cost is just $8.95. We did get a shipment into our offices this past week and if you want to order thru the offices the cost is $13.70 with postage. Call 1-866-918-7711 or visit the PhilSteele.com store to order yours today.

I will be back tomorrow with complete details on how you can join me in a live one hour chat on Tuesday, June 8th.

Only 90 DAYS LEFT UNTIL THE FIRST COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME!!!

In today’s blog, I will finish releasing my Preseason All-Conference Teams with the All-SEC and All-SBC Teams.

In the SEC, Defending National Champion Alabama leads the way with six 1st Team selections led by last year’s Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram who rushed for 1,658 yds (6.1) with 17 TD’s.

Georgia also placed six on my 1st Team thanks in large part to their outstanding special teams unit which has three 1st Team players! On offense, the Bulldogs are led by All-American candidate WR AJ Green who many feel will be the top WR taken in next year’s NFL draft.

The conference is a little more balanced than the last couple of years as Auburn, LSU and Florida each have three players on the 1st Team while Arkansas, South Carolina and Kentucky each have two.

Only three players made my preseason SEC 1st Team for the second consecutive year: Green, Alabama WR Julio Jones, and Arkansas TE DJ Williams.

Download All-SEC.PDF

In the Sun Belt, Middle Tennessee returns 14 starters from last year’s 10-3 team and has six players on my 1st Teamled by QB Dwight Dasher who broke the school record for total offense with 3,943 yds including 1,154 rush yds (5.2).

North Texas figures to be improved from last year’s 2-10 finish and placed five on the 1st Team including a pair of OL in G Kelvin Drake (HM SBC LY) and T Esteban Santiago (1st Tm SBC LY).

Florida International has four on the 1st Tm including T.Y. Hilton who made 1st Team at WR and KR.

Three players made my preseason SBC 1st Team for the second consecutive year: Hilton, Troy WR Jerrel Jernigan and Arkansas St DT Bryan Hall.

Download All-SBC.PDF

Please check PhilSteele.com everyday to get my Top 30 Countdown which posted #22 West Virginia yesterday. Thru June 16th, I will post both magazine pages on a new team ranked in the Top 30 and you can get an early look on how I breakdown your favorite team. Remember those magazine pages are available for only 24 hours for you to download. Today, South Carolina comes in at #21.

I will be back tomorrow with Part One of my New and Improved Experience Chart and then on Saturday will feature Part 2 of the chart which will stay up thru Memorial Day with many of you away from your computers.

ONLY 12 DAYS UNTIL PHIL STEELE’S 2010 MAGAZINE HITS THE NEWSSTANDS! 

98 DAYS LEFT UNTIL THE FIRST COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME!!!

Covering college football as I do takes 52 weeks a year as it is and while I personally do not scout the high school games and rate each player I do compile my rankings based on the many different recruiting services across the country that follow and scout HS football year round. I not only like to use all of the biggest and best services, but I also use regional reports as well. The colleges themselves use many of these services to get the latest information on recruits.

When we receive a recruiting magazine, we translate each player’s ranking into a points system from 1-100 and then log each and every player into the computer and give them a point total from each source. Naturally, the more they are mentioned and the higher they are rated by each publication, the more total points they accrue. After months of entering all of this information, I sort the list by position and by total points and then rank the players from most points to least.

In today’s blog I have included the top incoming freshman Kickers/Punters and the Top 75 Incoming Jucos for 2010. Each one of these players is ranked in the Top 500 prospects regardless of position and will appear in my preseason magazine. I have also posted the top individual classes for each position. Since we want the college preview to continue to be the most in-depth and accurate magazine out there, if you find any information that is wrong or if you are questioning a player’s ranking please contact brandon@philsteele.com. I will be back on Friday I with the top 75 overall classes and give you my conference by conference recruiting ratings.

Top Incoming Freshman Kickers/Punters

Top Kicker Classes

1. Auburn-The Tigers return Wes Byrum but may have signed his replacement in Cody Parkey who was ranked the #1 Kicker by ESPN and Rivals. Parkey went 9-12 (75%) with all 3 misses from 49+ yds out as a senior.

2. Fresno St-The Bulldogs lost P Robert Malone who was one of the best punters in the country last year but welcome in Matt Darr who was rated the #1 P in the nation and was a 1st-tm All-American from Max Preps.

3. Michigan-The Wolverines need to find a replacement for Zoltan Mesko who was 1st-tm Big 10 and 2nd-tm All-American (AP) last year. Michigan thinks they have found his replacement in Will Hagerup an Army All-American that avg 42.9 yds on 22 punts and had 7 punts inside the 20 as a high school senior.

4. UCLA-The Bruins have a great tradition of outstanding Kickers including Kai Forbath who won the Lou Groza award as the best place-kicker in the nation last year. This year UCLA welcomes in Kip Smith a Parade All-American and 1st-tm USA Today kicker after hitting all 9 FG attempts as a senior.

5. Tennessee-The Vols signed Michael Palardy a US Army All-American that was 1st-tm All-Florida last year. He had a 49 yd punt avg as a senior and 38/43 of his KOs were touchbacks.

6. Alabama- The Crimson Tide get special mention here because they signed the #7, #16 and #21 Kickers led by Cade Foster who is currently enrolled for spring practice and is expected to be the leading replacement for Leigh Tiffin.

Top 75 Incoming Jucos

Top Juco Classes

1. Nebraska-The Cornhuskers bring in three of the top Juco players this year led by #3 Jemarcus Hardwick an OT who is strong and athletic. #6 Lavonte David is an OLB prospect from Fort Scott CC and has great quickness and #27 Chase Harper is a TE that has good hands, solid speed and is big enough to break tackles down the field.

2. Mississippi-Ole Miss brings in a great class of Jucos led by #1 Randall Mackey a QB that was named National Offensive Juco Player of the Year after throwing for 3,122 yds, rushing for 579, and totaling 32 TDs last year. The Rebels also bring in #14 Wayne Dorsey a DE that has superior pass rushing skills and the height and length you look for in a pure pass rusher.

3. Auburn-The Tigers bring in four top 40 players and are led by #2 Cameron Newton, a former Florida QB that passed for 2833 yds (22 TDs) and had 655 rush yds (16 TD) while leading Blinn College to the JC national title last year. Auburn also signed #19 Roszell Gayden a big OT from the College of the Sequoias in California. The Tigers also bring in #34 Joel Bonomolo and #37 Brandon Mosley.

4. Arizona St-The Sun Devils signed four players that finished in my top 75 led by #9 Brice Schwab a huge OT prospect that excels in pass protection. Arizona St will also welcome #12 George Bell a WR who will be a big weapon in the passing game, with his size and speed.

5. Kansas St-HC Bill Snyder always brings in a good class of Juco players and this year is no different with four players in the top 75. The group is led by #11 Adam Davis a DE from Fort Scott CC and has exceptional quickness off the edge.