The AP Poll was released over the weekend and today I can officially come up with Overrated and Underrated teams for the upcoming year.

First, here is the Preseason AP Top 25.

Overrated Teams

#23 Auburn-There are several signs pointing downward for last year’s defending champ. This year they lose the best offensive player in the NCAA in Heisman winner QB Cam Newton as well as arguably the best defensive player in DT Nick Fairley. Auburn also benefited from an amazing 7 net close wins and naturally the schedule gets tougher with road games vs Clemson, South Carolina, Arkansas, LSU and Georgia. They lose an incredible 31 lettermen and return just 6 starters (fewest in the country). Last year I had Texas as my #1 overrated team (preseason AP #5) and they went from the National Title game to 5-7 and Auburn will have to have some talented youngsters grow up quickly to avoid a similar fate

#22 Florida-After an 8-5 season (NR) former head coach Meyer stepped down due to health concerns and they bring a new HC in Muschamp who has no previous HC experience and just 10 returning starters. The Gators have just 3 SEC HG’s and play South Carolina and UGA away from home and pull the top two teams (Bama and LSU) out of the West. I think UF may have a tough time topping last year’s 8 wins and will not finish in the AP Top 25 at the end of the year.

#9 Oklahoma St-Last year I took a lot of flack for picking the Cowboys last in the Big 12 South but nearly every magazine picked them 5th or 6th as they were one of the more inexperienced teams in the country. Naturally they went on to a great season with their first 11-win season in school history. This year they return 2 of their 3 “triplets” in Weeden and Blackmon but OSU loses OC Holgorsen and RB Hunter from an off avg 44.2 ppg, which was their best since 1988. OSU was also +12 in TO’s, has five Big 12 away games (incl at Texas A&M, Texas, Missouri, and Texas Tech) and only had 2 starts lost to injury last year. They do get Oklahoma at home again this year but were outgained by 209 yds to the Sooners last year. There is no question that the Cowboys are very talented but because of having such a tough B12 schedule I do not have them in my Top 15.

#7 Stanford-Last year was a dream season for the Cardinal as they had the 2nd highest AP Poll finish (#4) in school history. This year they do return QB Andrew Luck who is clearly the #1 player for next year’s draft but do lose their top 2 WR’s, 3 starting OL and 4 starters from their defensive front 7. They have just 11 returning starters and go from the battled tested coaching legacy of Harbaugh to a 1st-yr HC. While two of my 9 sets of power ratings call for an unbeaten year, with the loss of their HC and finishing up with USC, Oregon St, Oregon, California and Notre Dame all in a row, they will not match LY’s 12 win total and will finish outside the Top 10.

Underrated Teams

#13 Virginia Tech-The Hokies are not dominant but remind me of LY’s Auburn team in terms of schedule. VT should be favored in all 6 road games and get its toughest opponents at home (like eventual National Champ Auburn who had 4 of its 5 toughest at home). At 6-6 245 with a powerful arm and great mobility which sound a little like Cam Newton, QB Logan Thomas could be a breakout player this year. Finally despite ranking only #15 in my Power Poll, 8 of my 9 sets of power ratings calls for a 12-0 regular season!

#16 Notre Dame-Yes I know the Fighting Irish are probably the most underachieving team in the last 20 years but many signs are pointing upwards this year. HC Kelly who has a history of exceeding my expectations (6 of L/7 years) has a veteran squad with 17 returning starters that are now in the 2nd year of his schemes. While they do not have any cupcakes on the schedule they also have no teams in my Preseason Top 15. They could be favored in their first 11 games and remember Bob Stoops, Jim Tressel, Urban Meyer and Gene Chizik all won national titles in their 2nd years. All 9 sets of my power ratings call for double digit wins with 3 of them calling for a 12-0 season!

#19 Georgia-This is a must-win season for HC Mark Richt as he is definitely on the hot seat. The Bulldogs did have 4 net close losses last year and have signed some key newcomers in RB Isaiah Crowell and NT Jonathan Jenkins who should have a huge impact. The Bulldogs avoid the top 3 teams in the SEC West plus get South Carolina at home. UGA is one of my Most Improved Teams and is my upset pick to win the SEC East.

#25 USC-The Trojans were hit hard by the NCAA LY with a loss of scholarships and no bowls for 2 years. I expected them to be thin but Kiffin found some loopholes and was able to sign 31 players this year and will field a very talented team that can win the Pac-12 South (just not play in the title game). QB Barkley pilots a potent offense and Kiffin Sr will have a much improved D.

Texas-Mack Brown had led UNC and UT to winning records for 20 str years, the longest active streak of any FBS coach but last year they stunningly plummeted to 5-7. I think Mack Brown has made some great hires at coordinator and keep in mind that UT was -12 in TO’s LY. In ’07 QB Colt McCoy threw 18 int’s but he was much better as a Jr and they will get much better QB play this year after 17 int’s by a soph QB LY. The Horns  finally have a featured RB in true frosh Brown and UT will have a much better year than most expect.

Southern Miss-The Golden Eagles have had 17 consecutive winning seasons, which is the 4th longest active streak among FBS schools. LY they were +94.1 ypg in CUSA play (#1) and were just 8 pts away from a perfect 8-0 CUSA record and a 11-1 regular season mark. This year none of my 9 sets of power ratings call them #1 in the CUSA but almost all have them #2 and they have a schedule that sets up perfect with winnable road games and all the toughest games are at “The Rock”. Four of my 9 sets of power ratings call for a 12-0 record.

Houston-LY UH was the preseason favorite to win CUSA led by QB Case Keenum. UH put up 122 pts in the first 2 but then Keenum was inj’d and OFY in their loss to UCLA. Keenum was granted a 6th year and college football will benefit from that. His return has me very excited for this year’s squad and 8 of my 9 sets of power ratings call for a double digit win season which will at least double LY’s 5 win total! Three of the 9 call for them to be 11-0 when they travel to Tulsa!

USF-Skip Holtz was very successful at East Carolina including B2B CUSA Titles. This year the Bulls are a very talented team and only lose 15 lettermen (fewest in Big East). Two of my 9 sets of power ratings call for 11 wins, and I will call for them to top last year’s 8 win total.

Ohio-This year the Bobcats return just 11 starters but have a schedule that is tailor made for MAC success. Their 4 MAC away games are vs teams that finished 1-7, 1-7, 1-7 and 2-6 and they are only one of the top 4 MAC East teams that kept their HC. They avoid the Big 3 out of the MAC West (UT, NIU and WM) and I give them an excellent shot at their first double digit win season since 1968.

Clemson-Last year the Tigers had their first losing season since 1998 and this year Dabo Swinney is on the hot seat. They do return 14 starters and bring in a great recruiting class with adding the best set of true frosh LB’s in the country. They did have 4 net close losses last year and do get a key division game vs Florida St (Noles off Oklahoma) at home. Clemson makes my Most Improved list and will easily top LY’s win total.

Only 10 Days Until The First College Football Game!!!

In yesterday’s blog I took a look at home records from the past decade and today I will look at how team’s have performed on the road the past decade. Here are the away records for all 120 teams the past 10 years.

Away Records 2001-2010

The king of the road warriors is Texas which is 39-5 on the road this decade. I know that Mark Richt has a great record in opposing home stadiums and this is shown by Georgia’s 34-10 record on the road this decade. The usual suspects are at the top with Oklahoma, Boise St, Ohio St, USC, Virginia Tech, Miami Fl, LSU, TCU, Florida and Oregon all winning over 64% of the time on the road.

Yesterday I pointed out that the average home winning percentage for all 120 FBS teams was 63.2% (4625-2690). The 120 teams are a combined 2642-3959 on the road or just 40.02%. Yes, those numbers add up to more than 100% but that is because wins at home and on the road vs FCS teams (1AA) only count in the win column and not in the loss column.

Yesterday I pointed out that just 23 teams had a losing record at home this decade. The numbers are similar on the road with just 29 teams able to post winning records away from home this decade. Those 29 teams basically looks like a listing of the whose who in college football but there are a few surprises. Bowling Green and Louisville are not known as being powerhouses but make that list.

The teams at the bottom of the list are the usual suspects with Utah St taking the title for worst road record of the decade. The only teams that have been regularly in the postseason as of late that are in the bottom third are Kansas (23.9%) and Kentucky (31.3%).

Yesterday I took at look at home teams and the amount of wins they had as compared to the amount of times they were expected to lose (underdog). Today I look at road teams and the amount of wins they had as opposed to the amount of times they were expected to win on the road. First let me take a look at which teams have been favored the most on the road this decade. The winner is USC at 51 times or about 5 times a year. They have been favored in 51 of their 59 road games. Here is the top ten. 1. USC (51) 2. Boise St (46) 3. Texas (39) Tied at 4. Miami, Fl (38) and Utah (38) Tied at 6. Ohio State (37) and TCU (37) Tied at 8. Virginia Tech (36) and Oklahoma (36) 10. Florida St (35)

Buffalo from 2000-2008 had never been favored or expected to win a road game but in ‘09 were favored in two games. The others that have been favored on the road 4 times or less are Duke (1), Eastern Michigan (2) and Army (4). WKU has not been favored in any road game but has not had lined games for a full decade.

Here are the teams that have underperformed on the road this decade. Kansas St has been favored to win 23 games on the road this decade but has only won 14 of them for -9. There are 6 teams that have won 5 or fewer times than they have been favored this decade. I will list them in order and the number in parenthesis is the amount of times they have been favored minus the amount of actual road wins. Kansas St (9), USC (6), Oklahoma (6), Florida St (6), Nebraska (6), Michigan (5).

Now lets look at the teams that outperform expectations on the road. The team that has done the best is Ball St as they have been expected (favorite) to win just 13 road games but they have actually won 26 games on the road or +13. Here are the other teams that do better than expected on the road…Buffalo +11, Navy +11, ULM +10, Army +9 and Northwestern +9. I find it interesting that Notre Dame has only been expected to win 14 times on the road this decade yet are 23-23.

In an upcoming blog, I take a look at the biggest disparities between home and away records this decade.

Only 22 Days Until the First College Football Game!!!

A lot of people ask me if I have a favorite team. I was born and raised and still live in Cleveland, Ohio. I was a fan of many teams as a child but now that I put out a National magazine, I cannot afford to be a fan of any team. I have to pick the teams where I think they will finish each year. I was doing a radio show last week and I was asked if I have a favorite team or teams. My response was a strong YES! The interviewer was surprised by that answer and also eager to hear which team I would pick. My answer was my favorite team each year is the team I pick #1 in the magazine and my favorite teams are the ones I have picked higher than all the other major magazines out there. I then said that each year I establish a list of my favorite teams for that year. I then give this list to my wife. I wear a shirt and tie to work every day during the week and my tie is always a college team. I wear polo shirts during the weekend and when not at work and they are always different college teams. The list I give my wife is the ones to buy that I will be wearing for the upcoming year as these are the teams I will be the biggest fan of for the upcoming season. I was then asked “What teams will your wife be buying ties and shirts of this year? That was a great question and I thought I would answer it in a blog.

I went to preseason.stassen.com to find out where all the magazines have everyone ranked for the upcoming year. Here is the list of teams that I will be rooting for the most this year.

1. Alabama-As I said every year the team that is my pick to win the national title is my favorite team of the year and this year that team is the Alabama Crimson Tide. Last year I was ambushed by many Crimson Tide fans because I did not pick them to go to the national title game when many had them pre-season #1. They only had 2 starters back on D and a brutal schedule. In the end Bama went 10-3 and did not play in the title game like I predicted. This year is a different story. The Tide have the best defense in the country and their schedule is much more manageable as they avoid South Carolina and Georgia out of the East and get Arkansas and LSU at home. I will be decked out in Bama garb all year long and hopefully they bring home their second national title in three years!

2. Southern Miss-Take the most talented team in CUSA and match it up vs the #117 schedule in the country and you get a Top 20 team! There is a chance there could be a couple of 12-0 teams in the CUSA title game because four of my 9 sets of power ratings call for Southern Miss to go 12-0 and this is by far the best team HC Fedora has fielded in his 4 years. Out of the major preseason magazines on stassen.com only Blue Ribbon and myself have the Golden Eagles in the Top 25 and I’m the only magazine to have them in my top 20.

3. Virginia Tech- The Hokies draw a lot of comparisons in my mind to last year’s National Champ Auburn. They have a big mobile 1st year starting QB and have a schedule in which all of their tough games are at home and they could be favored in every road game. VT also has one of the top coaches in college football in Frank Beamer. DC Bud Foster must have been angry the entire offseason after 2010’s weaker than expected D and should have them breathing fire. While they rank in 7 of the 8 position categories in my top units, they are not top 10 talent-wise, but when lined up with their schedule I give them a great shot at a 12-0 record and another trip to the ACC Title game. I am the only magazine other than Athlon that ranks them in the Top 10 and I have them higher than anyone so I’ll be a big Hokie fan this year.

4. Houston-Last year UH was the preseason favorite to win CUSA led by QB Keenum. UH put up 122 pts in the first 2 but then Keenum was inj’d and OFY in their loss to UCLA. The Cougars dropped 2 of the next 3 including a tough loss to Rice where they had a 436-344 yd edge but lost by 3. After beating SMU and Memphis, Houston was 5-3 and in the CUSA chase but suffered a tough loss at home to UCF and QB Piland had 5 int’s vs Tulsa in the 3 pt loss. They lost to SM by 18 and TT by 15 to finish 5-7 for their first losing season since ’04. Keenum’s return has me very excited for this year’s squad and 8 of my 9 sets of power ratings call for a double digit win season which will at least double LY’s 5 win total! Three of the 9 call for them to be 11-0 when they travel to Tulsa! UH is not only one of my Surprise Teams but also one of my favorite teams this year since I am the only publication that has them ranked in the top 25.

5. Georgia-South Carolina is the favorite to win the SEC East for a 2nd year in a row but both Athlon and myself project the Bulldogs to rebound from a losing season and capture the East in 2011. Last year was the Bulldogs’ first losing season since 1996. The Bulldogs did have 4 net close losses and are hoping that JUCO NT Jenkins (340 lbs) will have the same impact that NT Terrence Cody had for Alabama and that RB Crowell (PS#4) will have the same impact that Lattimore had for SC. I like the talent of this year’s squad and they have just 3 SEC road games which are vs the 3 SEC teams that finished with a losing records LY! They avoid LSU and Bama out of the West. This year they have a veteran QB, 14 ret st’rs and a much better schedule. LY they had close losses to SC and Fla but this time get SC at home and have a bye before the Gators. UGA also has my #1 rated ST unit. Mark Richt is a coach on the hot seat but has a talented team with a great schedule and will be the upset winner of the SEC East therefore making them one of my favorite teams for 2011.

6. Kansas St-I have the Wildcats tied for 6th in the Big 12 while every other publication has them projected 8th or 9th. KSU does have to play Texas Tech, Oklahoma St and Texas on the road but just like the old days coach Snyder has brought in a lot of JUCO’s as well as a couple of VHT transfers in RB Bryce Brown (PS#1) and MLB Arthur Brown (PS#5) who should make an immediate impact. This year’s squad is even more exp’d than last year’s which made it to a bowl game and with the influx of talent, the Cats will be back in the postseason.

7. UCLA-HC Rick Neuheisel is on the hot seat and must deliver this year. I think he will and I have the Bruins tied for 3rd in the Pac-12 South while all of my competitors have them projected to finish 5th or 6th in the division. The Bruins were just 4-8 LY and this year draw 5 Pac-12 road games and 2 potential Top 25 non-conference foes. They figure to be a dog in all 5 Pac-12 AG’s including Utah, which will be played in altitude and possible cold weather in November. I think this year’s Bruins’ squad will be much better than most folks anticipate (17 returning starters most in Pac-12) and if they receive better QB play (which I expect), it will make both their offense and defense stronger. The Bruins actually made my Most Improved List which means I expect to see them in the postseason and are one of my favorite teams.

8. Nevada-The WAC figures to be very competitive last year and according to the pre-season publications Hawaii is the favorite but I have the Wolf Pack as my WAC favorite. There is nowhere near the difference there has been in the past between the #1 and #8 team. Honestly, if Hawaii, Fresno, La Tech or Idaho had Nevada’s schedule, I would probably call for them to win the WAC this year but Nevada has an unbelievably beneficial WAC schedule. They take on the 3 bottom teams in the conference on the road and not only benefit from 4 WAC HG’s, but it’s they are against their 4 toughest foes and Nevada has a solid altitude advantage and will probably have a weather edge vs both warm-climate teams (Hawaii & La Tech) on B2B Saturdays in Nov. This is a team that would be a good-sized underdog to last year’s squad but with the schedule, they are my prohibitive favorite to win the WAC.

9. Colorado St-I have the Rams picked for 4th in the MWC while my competition has them 5th or lower. The Rams are off a pair of 3-9 seasons and last year were -86.1 ypg in MWC play. This year I feel they are one of the most improved teams in the country and they make my Most Improved List. This is HC Fairchild’s best team in his four years (including the ‘08 bowl team) as they have 14 returning starters and for the first time in his tenure return a starting QB. CSU gets a pivotal game vs SDSt at home which has me calling them for #4 in the MWC. They also get AF at home and could actually finish even higher in the MWC.

10. Pittsburgh-With the exception of the USA Today (USF) every other major publication has West Virginia picked for the Big East title while I have USF and Pittsburgh tied at the top. HC Todd Graham steps into a great situation. Pitt has my #1 rated defense in the league and Graham will get the most out of an offense that has talent. Pitt was +94.9 ypg in conf play (2nd best) and has one of the top 3 offenses in the Big East. Pitt has 4 BE HG’s including a Thursday nighter in Sept when they host USF. I am forecasting a tie for the BE Title but Pitt will hold the tie-breaker and that would put them into a BCS bowl making them one of my favorite teams in 2011.

11. Clemson-Like Neuheisel, Dabo Swinney is on the hot seat but only Lindy’s and I have the Tigers picked 2nd in the ACC Atlantic. Clemson is off a rare 6-7 losing season (first since 1998) and draws both VT and UNC out of the Coastal. They lose their top 2 defensive players including Da’Quan Bowers who had 15.5 sacks but brought in a great recruiting class and were actually better than their final record in ’10. They had 4 net close losses and could easily have won games LY vs Auburn, Miami, UNC and FSU. Clemson makes my Most Improved List and is one of my favorite teams.

12. Texas-A lot of people are down on Texas this year after last year’s 5-7 finish and I am the only magazine to have them ranked higher than 4th (tied for 3rd). Oklahoma took a step back in 2009 but rebounded to win the Big 12 in 2010. Texas took a major step back last year falling to a 5-7 record and naturally make my Most Improved List. While they have just 12 returning starters (tied fewest Big 12) they were -12 in TO’s last year and despite finishing last in the Big 12 South, were +53 ypg in the Big 12, which was 5th best. Keep in mind Colt McCoy had 18 int’s as a soph and rebounded for a big Jr year and whoever wins the Texas QB job should greatly cut down on the 17 int’s from LY. My talent ratings say Texas has the best def in the Big 12 and if they get adequate QB play, could end the season as a surprise Title contender.

13. Kent St- Kent St is a team that was better than its final record in most of HC Martin’s 7 yrs. They did not catch a lot of breaks. In the last 2 yrs they had a pair of 4-4 finishes in MAC play losing numerous close games. Hazell was pleased with the talent he inherited and Kent St also has a very manageable schedule and my #3 rated O-line and #1 rated D-line in the MAC. LY’s Miami team gives everyone hope as they went from 1-7 to 7-1 in MAC action. New HC Hazell will bring in the Ohio St wining attitude and they have a shot at getting to their first bowl S/’72.

14. Western Michigan- My main 2 sets of power ratings both call WM the top team in the MAC. While every other publications has the Broncos picked 2nd or worse, I have tied for 1st. Unfortunately the Broncos have to face both UT and NIU on the road. Last year they had a 24-11 FD edge vs Toledo and also had just 7 pts on four 2H drives inside the NIU15 giving the Huskies their closest conference game of the season. WM is one of the most improved teams in the country and while they have to face both Toledo and NIU on the road, they are actually capable of winning both games and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Cubit’s Broncos playing in the MAC Championship game.

15. Penn St-I am the only publication that has Penn St tied atop the Big 10 Leaders division with most having them 3rd behind Ohio St and Wisconsin. LY Penn St may have had one of HC Paterno’s youngest ever teams and this year they are a much more veteran unit with 14 ret st’rs and might be the most improved team in the Big Ten. There are still question marks at QB but if they get that situation worked out favorably, I look for PSU to open the Big Ten portion of their schedule at 6-0 but unfortunately their final 2 games are at Ohio St and at Wisconsin. A win at one of those 2 games would likely put Penn St into the first ever Big Ten Title game.

16. Rutgers-Most publications have the Scarlet Knight picked for 7th or 8th in the Big East but I have them tied for 6th. Thanks to a late season collapse last year, Rutgers finished last at -131.6 ypg in BE play and in ‘09 was -82.7 ypg which was the 2nd worst. While RU has 4 BE HG’s, unfortunately they are vs the top 4 teams in the league meaning their 3 winnable games vs the lower half of the conf are all on the road. I like this Rutgers team and their talent and my main set of power ratings calls them the 5th best team in the league. The schedule has me calling them 6th but this is a team clearly capable of surprising and has added a lot of talent this year.

17. San Jose St-Only the Sporting News and myself have the Spartans projected for 6th in the conference while the rest have them at 7th or 8th. I like what HC Mike MacIntyre is doing with the Spartans and they are in much better shape this year. LY they opened up vs Alabama, Wisconsin and Utah, 3 big, powerful teams that wore them down and helped cause them to have 78 starts lost to injury. They were still, however, very competitive in the 2H of the season and had losses in WAC play by 2, 4, 7 and 3 points and could have easily have won all 4 (4 net close losses, pg 299). My computer calls them the most improved team in the WAC and they have 18 returning starters (most in the WAC) and 4 WAC HG’s. While most of my power ratings call for a losing season, my main set calls for them to go 4-3 in WAC play despite having a 1-15 record in the WAC the last 2 years.

18. ULM-Only the Rogers poll and myself have the Warhawks projected for 3rd. Last year ULM had just 9 returning starters and was in the first year of a coaching change where the coach has to learn the players and the players have to learn the new system. They did catch some breaks and nearly got to bowl eligibility finishing 4-4 in the SBC (+16.8 ypg) and 5-7 overall. This year they have 17 starters back and are in the 2nd year of the new coach and get a favorable schedule with most of the key games at home. Their 13 lettermen lost are 2nd fewest in the SBC and they are a dark horse contender for the SBC Title.

19. Cincinnati-I have the Bearcats tied for 3rd in the Big East while the other publications have them either 4th or 5th. For a good portion of April I thought I was going to pick the Bearcats #1 in the Big East. They have a lot of factors pointing to improvement as they are in the 2nd yr under HC Butch Jones and teams show great improvement in year 2. They were -15 in TO’s last year. They went from a record of 23-4 in ‘08 and ‘09 to just 4-8 LY and despite their 2-5 Big East record LY were actually +36.4 ypg in conf play and that includes the final game of the season which they mailed in and were outgained by 165 yards (+70 ypg prior). They have 15 returning st’rs which is 2nd most in the BE and make my Most Improved List and my favorite teams list.

20. USC- Only Athlon and myself picked the Trojans first and even though I peg USC for 1st, the Trojans cannot play for the Pac-12 Title as they are in the 2nd year of their probation which also keeps them from a bowl. They can still win the Pac-12 South which should give them more motivation than they had LY. While this year’s team is young and they draw both Oregon and Stanford from the North as well as having to face Pac-12 South favorite ASU on the road, the Trojans have plenty of talent and despite just 62.9% returning lettermen, should finish at the top of the South.

21. Ole Miss-I am the only publication that picked the Rebels to finish of ahead of defending national champ Auburn. The Rebels were coming off finishes at #14 and #20 but LY did not go as expected for them as they finished last in the West at 1-7 and were -74.9 ypg. The Rebels’ 4 SEC HG’s this year are vs arguably the top 4 teams in the SEC meaning most of their winnable games are on the road. They have just 65.3% of their lettermen returning (#9 SEC) incl just 4 st’rs on D but Houston Nutt’s teams do very well when I put them on my Most Improved List and they find themselves in that spot this year and will pull some upsets.

Only 28 Days Until the First College Football Game!

Making my Most Improved List has generally been a blessing for teams, as they usually make big turnarounds. In 1999, the #1 most improved team in my Preseason Rankings was Hawaii and they had the NCAA’s largest turnaround on record, going from a winless season in 1998 (0-12) to 9-4 and a bowl victory one year later!!!

The year 2000 was a VERY successful season as well for my Most Improved Teams. Of the top 14 Most Improved Teams that year, TEN went from a losing season to being bowl eligible!!! In 2001 and 2002, nine of the 20 teams on my Most Improved List list each year went from having a non-winning season to making a bowl and in 2003, 8 of the top 20 teams went from a .500 or losing seasons to being bowl eligible.

There was a total of TEN teams that did not have winning records in 2003 who improved to a winning record in ’04. NINE (90%) of them were on my list! In 2005, my top 16 Most Improved Teams made incredible strides. The top 16 Most Improved Teams on my list in 2005 had a combined record of 66-111 (37%) in 2004 and improved to 102-84 (55%) in 2005.

2006 was another great year for the list. My #1 Most Improved Team in 2006 was Arkansas which went from 4-7 to SEC West Champs and rose as high as #5 in the polls!! Wake Forest went from 4-7 to 11-3 and ACC Champs. Houston went from 6-6 to CUSA Champs! Ohio went from 4-7 to MAC East Champs! Troy went from 4-7 to Sun Belt Champs! The top 10 teams on 2006′s MIT list were a combined 71-57 (55.5%) in 2006 after being 33-79 (29.5%) in 2005.

2007 was another terrific year! The 22 teams on my list had a combined record of 92-177 (34.2%) in 2006 but were 145-134 (52%) in 2007. MY #2 SURPRISE TEAM IN 2007 WAS ILLINOIS AND THEY WENT FROM 2-10 TO THE ROSE BOWL!!!

There were 58 teams in 2007 that did not have a winning record. Of those 58, 24 managed to improve their record AND be bowl eligible in 2008 or just 41%. Of those 24, SIXTEEN were on my 2008 Most Improved List (67%)!!!!

2009 was another successful season with 22 teams making my list and of the 22, 12 went from a losing record to bowl eligibility. Last year my #1 Most improved team Tulsa went from 5-7 to 10-3 and #24 in the country! The 19 teams that made the list had a combined record of 82-149 35.5% in ’09 and improved to a combined 132-109 54.8%!! None of the 19 went to a bowl in ’09 but 13 of them were bowl eligible LY!

With this type of success through the years, you might think that it is very easy to pick teams that had losing records the previous year and have become bowl eligible the next season. I went back to 1992 and took a look at all of the teams that finished with losing records in a season. In that span, there have been 969 teams that finished with a record below .500. Of those 969 teams, only 279 of them managed to finish ABOVE .500 the next year which comes out to just 28.8%. Teams now play a 12 game regular season so a 6-6 record equals bowl eligibility. To be fair, out of the 969 teams an additional 51 earned a .500 mark the next year. So, of the 969 teams, 330 or 34% managed to go from a losing record to at least .500 the next year.

The combined record of all of the teams which had a losing record from 1992-2009 was 3044-5762 or 34.5%. The next year those same teams showed a slight overall improvement in their records to 3836-5236 or just 42.2%. So on the average, a team that had a losing season in that span improved by 7.7% over the previous year’s record. Naturally, the teams I feel are the most improved are in my top 10. My top ten Most Improved Teams over the last 9 years had a combined record of 368-686 (34.9%) the previous year but improved to 583-523 (52.7%) the next year. That is 17.8% better than the previous year, which is more than DOUBLE the normal improvement for teams with losing records. Last year the top ten Most Improved teams went from 46-76 37.7% to 74-53 58.2% for a 20.5% improvement!

In the last 9 years, I have had a total of 190 teams on my Most Improved List. Of the 190 teams that made my Most Improved List in the last 9 years, 162 (85.2%) have won at least the same amount of games as the previous year or have improved their win total (18 of 19, 95% in ’10!).

In the last 9 years, I have listed 176 teams on my Most Improved Teams list that did not have a winning season the previous year. Of those 176 teams, almost all improved their record the next year, but even more impressively, 109 of the 176 teams were bowl eligible the next year which is 61.9% (44 of 63 70% in ’08-’10)!

Taking a closer look at the last 9 years, I found that 475 teams had losing records from 2001-2009, and of those 475 teams, just 129 or 27.1% managed to have a winning record the next year. Of those 129 teams, 79 of them were on my Most Improved List or 61.2%!!! Over 61% of the teams that have gone from a losing season to a winning season have been on my list!

Looking for some major turnaround teams this year that will surprise? Here are Top 3 Most Improved Teams for 2011.

Most Improved Teams for 2011

1. Houston-Last year UH was the preseason favorite to win CUSA led by QB Case Keenum. UH put up 122 pts in the first 2 but then Keenum was inj’d and OFY in their loss to UCLA. This year Keenum was granted a 6th year and college football will benefit from that. UH also had 3 net close losses but does have just 12 ret st’rs. Keenum’s return has me very excited for this year’s squad and 8 of my 9 sets of power ratings call for a double digit win season which will at least double last year’s 5 win total! Three of the 9 call for them to be 11-0 when they travel to Tulsa! UH is also one of my Surprise Teams which means they could be a surprise contender for the national title and any time a team goes from a 5-7 record to a probable DD win season will most certainly be at the top of my surprise list!

2. Georgia-Last year was the Bulldogs’ first losing season since 1996. The Bulldogs did have 4 net close losses and are hoping that JUCO NT Jenkins (340 lbs) will have the same impact that NT Terrence Cody had for Alabama and that RB Crowell (PS#4) will have the same impact that Lattimore had for South Carolina. I like the talent of this year’s squad and they have just 3 SEC road games, which are vs the 3 SEC teams that finished with losing records last year! They avoid LSU and Bama out of the West. This year they have a veteran QB, 14 ret st’rs and a much better schedule. Last year they had close losses to SC and Fla but this time get SC at home and have a bye before the Gators. UGA also has my #1 rated ST unit. Mark Richt is a coach on the hot seat but has a talented team with a great schedule and will be the upset winner of the SEC East. Going from 6-7 to appearing in the SEC Champ game no doubt has the Bulldogs among the Top Most Improved Teams for 2011!

3. Texas- Oklahoma took a step back in 2009 but rebounded to win the Big 12 in 2010. Texas took a major step back last year falling to a 5-7 record and naturally make my Most Improved List. While they have just 12 returning starters (tied fewest Big 12) they were -12 in TO’s last year and despite finishing last in the Big 12 South, were +53 ypg in the B12 which was 5th best. Keep in mind Colt McCoy had 18 int’s as a soph and rebounded for a big Jr year and whoever wins the Texas QB job should greatly cut down on the 17 int’s from last year. My talent ratings say Texas has the best def in the Big 12 and if they get adequate QB play, could end the season as a surprise national Title contender!

4. Cincinnati-After going 33-7 the previous 3 years, LY’s 4-8 record was the worst since 1999. There are plenty of signs pointing upwards this year. It is HC Butch Jones’ 2nd year, making everyone more acclimated to his systems and they were 2nd worst in the NCAA with -15 in TO’s last year (TO’s = Turnaround). They were actually +36.4 ypg in the Big East (3rd best) despite their 2-5 record. The D returns 10 st’rs which is the most in 5 yrs and the offense has QB Zach Collaros and RB Isaiah Pead back. They do have 4 Big East road games (3 at home) and there are just 12 players left from Kelly’s ’09 spring class (7 on 2 deep). However, Cincy makes my Most Improved List and they are a legitimate contender for the Big East Title!

Want More? Get the other 12 Teams that made my Most Improved Listby purchasing my 2011 College Football Preview at the PhilSteele.com store!

Only 48 Days Until the First College Football Game!!

Here are my top 25 2011 recruiting rankings. They take into account the strength of the Top 5 signees, the Top 10 signees and the average signing grade per player for the overall class. This list is not about the quantity of the freshmen signed but the overall quality of the class. Sometimes a team with a small class of just 15 players may rate higher than one with 30. (Keep in my mind these rankings could be tweaked by the time my magazine hits the newsstands in early June)

2011 Top 25 Frosh Recruiting Ratings

Top Classes By Conference

Here are some interesting notes on this year’s signing ratings. Alabama signed my #1 class for the second time in three years. They signed two of my PS#1 players in PS#1 OL Cyrus Kouandjio and PS#1DB Ha’sean Clinton-Dix. Texas despite all the coaching turnover signed another deep class and could have the biggest frosh impact player in PS#1RB Malcolm Brown who could fill the void of Texas’ recent RB struggles. FSU HC Jimbo Fisher has done a great job since taking over and not only had a successful season on the field but also signed one of the best classes with four of my top 50 players in the country. Despite being on probation, USC continued their recruiting dominance as they signed the top class in the Pac 10 for the 10th straight season and are led by PS#1WR George Farmer!!

Breaking down by conference, naturally the SEC led the way with 9 teams in my top 25 followed by 5 teams from the PAC-10. Also represented well were the ACC and Big 10 who each had 4 teams.  I will have a complete final rankings of teams 1-75 in a later blog this spring.

Obviously recruiting rankings are a good tool to predict a team’s future success, but are clearly just a part of a team’s success. A good example of this is Cincinnati who won back-to back Big East Titles in 2008-09 despite finishing no higher than 6th in conference or #62 nationally since 2005.

The AP Poll was released over the weekend and today I can officially come up with Overrated and Underrated teams for the upcoming year.

First, here is the Preseason AP Top 25.

Overrated Teams

#5 Texas-I think the Top 10 is reasonably legitimate and the Longhorns are once again one of the most talented teams in the country and they have my #1 defense. They do face my #5 team Nebraska in Lincoln and my #1 team Oklahoma in Dallas, but will be a solid favorite in all of the rest of their games. They do lose a 4-year starting QB in Colt McCoy, their top WR in Jordan Shipley and have not really had a feature RB since Jamaal Charles (’07), so there are some questions on offense. While I think it will be another solid season for the Longhorns I think a Top 5 finish as projected by the AP is a bit of a reach this year.

#12 Wisconsin-The Badgers are coming off a 10-win season and are a much more veteran team this year. Many of my sets of power ratings have them slightly ahead of Iowa but they have to play the Hawkeyes on the road and get #2 Ohio St at home. They do avoid Penn St but the Michigan and Michigan St road trips will be much tougher than most suspect. While 5 of my 9 sets of ratings call for a double digit win season, I think another Top 15 ranking will be tough to duplicate.

#15 Pittsburgh-When I list my rankings in the magazine, they are my end of season rankings and I have Pittsburgh #27. I do have the Panthers winning the Big East title by beating West Virginia at home which would give them the tie-breaker. However, they have just 11 returning starters and have to face Utah and Notre Dame on the road and Miami, Fl at home in non-conference play. By winning the conference, I have them playing in the Fiesta Bowl against Nebraska, but I think the Panthers could have four losses at the end of the year.

#16 Georgia Tech-Paul Johnson is a great coach and last year I undervalued the Yellow Jackets and paid the price as they not only won the Coastal, but won the ACC Title outright. This year they have to play Clemson, Virginia Tech, North Carolina and Georgia all on the road and Miami at home in which the Yellow Jackets could be a underdog in each game. Despite the tough schedule, they have 14 returning starters and could make me pay again for picking them 4th in the Coastal this year.

#21 LSU-The talent is there for LSU to contend for the SEC West Title and even knock off Alabama at home. They do have to play SIX teams in my Top 25 (#10 schedule) and only have 10 returning starters. Keep in my mind LY they went 9-4 but were outgained on the year 328-305. This is a talented squad with my #19 rated defense and a lot of VHT’s on offense but with the schedule they could find it tough matching last year’s 9 regular season wins and could finish out of the Top 25 for the second time in 3 years.

Underrated Teams

#7 Oklahoma-The last time the Sooners came off a 5 loss season was 2000 which is the last time they won the National Title!  While they lost 7 players to the draft including four 1st-rounders, two of the top draftees (Bradford and Gresham) did not really play. Last year despite their 5-3 Big 12 record, the Sooners’ +133 ypg was the league’s best. They also had 42 starts lost to injury (tied #3 FBS) and had 3 net close losses. This year they are in much better shape on the offensive line, QB Landry Jones has a year under his belt and all 9 sets of my power ratings call for an unbeaten season. With all these factors added up, the Sooners are my pick to win the National Title in 2010!

#22 Auburn-Many Auburn fans were not happy when HC Gene Chizik was hired (just 5-19 at Iowa St) but I thought he did a solid job here last year guiding the Tigers to a 8-5 record including a New Year’s Day Bowl win. This year Auburn has 15 returning starters and are in the second year of Chizik’s system. The schedule also sets up nicely for them as they get 4 key SEC games at home and my main set of power ratings calls for an 11-1 season with an 11-0 vs 11-0 showdown vs Alabama in the Iron Bowl. The Tigers will easily top LY’s 8 win total and I have them finishing #15.

Notre Dame-HC Brian Kelly gets the most out of the talent on hand and he is the first coach in the history of my magazine to have his team finish higher than I projected them in SIX straight years (including 3 conference titles). He inherits a lot of talent here with 14 returning starters including All-American candidates WR Floyd and TE Rudolph. He does have a new QB in Crist but remember Kelly won a BE title with 5 different QBs in 2008. I feel the Irish have clearly underachieved the last 3 seasons and I think they could be in store for 9 wins or more this year.

South Carolina-This could finally be the year Steve Spurrier envisioned when he came to Columbia. The Gamecocks have 16 returning starters and are one of the top teams in the SEC. They have my #3 rated defense and lose just 11 letterman. This year they do have to play Florida on the road and draw Alabama from the West but it would not surprise me if Spurrier had the team in the SEC Title game this year despite facing the 2nd toughest schedule in the country.

Houston-They Cougars have one of the best offenses in the country with QB Case Keenum, three 1,000 yd receivers and RB Beall who has nearly 2,000 yds in his 1st two seasons. Houston also should have an improved defense this year with 6 starters back including three of the top 4 returning tacklers. Not only are the Cougars my pick for the CUSA title, but 2 of my 9 sets of power ratings call for an undefeated season with winnable road games at UCLA and Texas Tech.

Arizona-My magazine is the only one in the country to have the Wildcats in the Top 25 and they are a legitimate Pac-10 title contender. Arizona could have easily won the conference title last year but had a pair of 3 pt losses and came up just short. While they only have 4 starters back on defense, they only lose 17 letterman and will have a potent offense. They get 5 Pac-10 home games and a road trip to Washington St. I will call for them to have their most wins since 1998 and have a shot at their 1st ever Rose bowl which would make a great story.

Only 9 Days Until The First College Football Game!!!

Over the weekend the preseason AP Top 25 was released with defending national champ Alabama clearly ranked #1. Every year I am particularly intrigued by who is placed in the preseason AP Top 10 as I try to predict what those teams will be shortly after the previous season is completed.

Most AP voters usually look at a couple of criteria when they evaluate a team for the upcoming season. First they look at the number of returning starters that the team has coming back particularly at the offensive skill positions. A team that returns its starting QB and a combination of its RB and WRs is often times more highly thought of than a team that loses its starting QB but returns its entire offensive line. Similarly a team that returns most of its starters on offense but loses a lot of its defensive playmakers usually is more highly thought of than a team that returns a majority of its defensive starters but loses its skill position players on offense.

Another factor that is heavily weighted is the performance of the team in the bowl game, which undoubtedly is the lasting image of that team in the offseason. A team coming off a huge bowl win usually is more highly thought of than a team that is coming off a bowl loss regardless of what their schedule looks like for the upcoming season.
Using these criteria and a few more, I project the preseason AP Top 10 every year at the conclusion of the previous season, which in most cases is nearly 7 months in advance. Now as you all know, a lot can happen from January to August and for further proof on that check on my players lost list, which is all the changes that have been made for each team since my magazine was published in May.

Last year my projected Top 10 for the AP Poll was #1 Florida, #2 Texas, #3 USC, #4 Oklahoma, #5 Alabama, #6 Virginia Tech, #7 LSU, #8 Oklahoma St, #9 Ohio St and #10 Mississippi. The actual AP Top 10 was #1 Florida, #2 Texas, #3 Oklahoma, #4 USC, #5 Alabama, #6 Ohio St, #7 Virginia Tech, #8 Mississippi and#9 was a tie between Oklahoma St/Penn St.

I nailed nine of the ten teams that appeared in the Preseason Top 10 with the only exception being LSU/Penn St and I may have had something to do with that. It’s interesting to note that of the main preseason magazines, only two had Penn St ranked in the Top 10 and I had them my #1 surprise team and ranked #5. Most had Penn St out of the Top 10. Perhaps since I had them rated so high in my magazine, it influenced a few voters across the country, bumping them into the Top 10.

This year way back in my February 2nd Blog, I projected the preseason AP Top 10 would be #1 Alabama, #2 Ohio St, #3 Boise St, #4 Oregon, #5 Texas, #6 TCU, #7 Iowa, #8 Florida, #9 Nebraska and #10 Virginia Tech.

The actual AP Top 10 which came out over the weekend was #1 Alabama, #2 Ohio St, #3 Boise St, #4 Florida, #5 Texas, #6 TCU, #7 Oklahoma, #8 Nebraska, #9 Iowa and #10 Virginia Tech.

For the second year in a row I nailed nine of the ten teams that appeared in the Preseason Top 10 with the only exception being Oregon/Oklahoma, which I can defend easily.

First, at the time I wrote my projection back in early February Duck QB Jeremiah Masoli was not yet suspended. With Masoli still in the fold at that point Oregon had 17 returning starters including RB LaMichael James and Masoli in the backfield. The Ducks clearly would have been a preseason Top 10 team and probably Top 5 had Masoli not been kicked off the team. Even without Masoli Oregon was still rated #11 in the preseason poll.

The team that I did not have in my projected AP Top 10 was Oklahoma (#7) and if you have purchased my magazine or listed to one of my radio shows across the country you know I think very highly of the Sooners this year as I have them ranked #1. Like Penn St last year perhaps since I had them rated so high in my magazine, it influenced a few voters across the country, bumping them into the Top 10 despite the Sooners having five losses last year and the fact that they did not even finish in the final AP Top 25.

I also am pleased that six of the 10 teams are ranked in the exact position that I projected way back in February including the top 3 in Alabama, Ohio St and Boise St. I also had Texas, TCU and Virginia Tech ranked in their exact positions in the poll.

So there you have it, next year when you see my preseason AP Top 10 projection in late January or early February go ahead and compare it to the first AP poll that will come out several months later and I know you’ll find that probably 9 or maybe even all 10 will be in the Preseason AP Top 10.

Only 10 Days Until the First College Football Game!