Well here it is, my projected AP Top 10 for next year as of February 11, 2011! I will mention it now and I will mention it numerous times throughout today’s blog but this is not MY preseason Top 10 for next year, it is where I project the AP Top 10 to come out at the start of the season.

Most AP voters usually look at a couple of criteria when they evaluate a team for the upcoming season. First they look at the number of returning starters that the team has coming back particularly at the offensive skill positions. A team that returns its starting QB and a combination of its RB and WRs is often times more highly thought of than a team that loses its starting QB but returns its entire offensive line. Similarly a team that returns most of its starters on offense but loses a lot of its defensive playmakers usually is more highly thought of than a team that returns a majority of its defensive starters but loses its skill position players on offense.

Another factor that is heavily weighted is the performance of the team in the bowl game, which undoubtedly is the lasting image of that team in the offseason. A team coming off a huge bowl win usually is more highly thought of than a team that is coming off a bowl loss regardless of what their schedule looks like for the upcoming season.

Using these criteria and a few more, I project the preseason AP Top 10 every year at the conclusion of the previous season, which in most cases is nearly 6 months in advance. Now as you all know, a lot can happen from January to August including injuries, suspensions, transfers, etc.

In 2009, my projected Top 10 for the AP Poll was #1 Florida, #2 Texas, #3 USC, #4 Oklahoma, #5 Alabama, #6 Virginia Tech, #7 LSU, #8 Oklahoma St, #9 Ohio St and #10 Mississippi. The actual AP Top 10 was #1 Florida, #2 Texas, #3 Oklahoma, #4 USC, #5 Alabama, #6 Ohio St, #7 Virginia Tech, #8 Mississippi and #9 was a tie between Oklahoma St/Penn St.

I nailed nine of the ten teams that appeared in the Preseason Top 10 with the only exception being LSU/Penn St and I may have had something to do with that. It’s interesting to note that of the main preseason magazines, only two had Penn St ranked in the Top 10 and I had them my #1 surprise team and ranked #5. Most had Penn St out of the Top 10. Perhaps since I had them rated so high in my magazine, it influenced a few voters across the country, bumping them into the Top 10.

Last year I projected the preseason AP Top 10 would be #1 Alabama, #2 Ohio St, #3 Boise St, #4 Oregon, #5 Texas, #6 TCU, #7 Iowa, #8 Florida, #9 Nebraska and #10 Virginia Tech.

The actual AP Top 10 was #1 Alabama, #2 Ohio St, #3 Boise St, #4 Florida, #5 Texas, #6 TCU, #7 Oklahoma, #8 Nebraska, #9 Iowa and #10 Virginia Tech.

For the second year in a row I nailed nine of the ten teams that appeared in the Preseason Top 10 with the only exception being Oregon/Oklahoma, which I can defend easily.

First, at the time I wrote my projection back in early February Duck QB Jeremiah Masoli was not yet suspended. With Masoli still in the fold at that point Oregon had 17 returning starters including RB LaMichael James and Masoli in the backfield. The Ducks clearly would have been a preseason Top 10 team and probably Top 5 had Masoli not been kicked off the team. Even without Masoli Oregon was still rated #11 in the preseason poll.

The team that I did not have in my projected AP Top 10 was Oklahoma (#7) and if you have purchased last year’s magazine or listed to one of my radio shows across the country you know I thought very highly of the Sooners as I had them ranked #1. Like Penn St last year perhaps since I had them rated so high in my magazine, it influenced a few voters across the country, bumping them into the Top 10 despite the Sooners having five losses in 2009 and the fact that they did not even finish in the final AP Top 25.

I also am pleased that six of the 10 teams were ranked in the exact position that I projected including the top 3 in Alabama, Ohio St and Boise St. I also had Texas, TCU and Virginia Tech ranked in their exact positions in the poll.
Now let’s take a look at this year’s projected Preseason AP Top 10:

#10 SOUTH CAROLINA-Last year the Gamecocks returned 16 starters (#2 SEC) and had only 11 lettermen lost. They also signed one of the best frosh classes ever which included my PS#1 RB Marcus Lattimore. In my magazine I said that SC was a legit SEC contender and they even made my list of Surprise Teams (darkhorse national title contender).  They didn’t disappoint beating #1 defending champ Alabama at home and getting a key win on the road vs Florida as SC made their first appearance in the SEC Champ game. They did finish the season with consecutive losses but this year return 7 starters on offense including QB Garcia and RB Lattimore and figure to be the favorites to repeat as SEC East Division champs.

#9 OKLAHOMA ST-Last year the Cowboys were one of the least experienced teams in the entire country coming into the season with just 8 returning starters. However, HC Gundy did an outstanding job leading them to their most wins in a season in school history and this year despite the loss of OC Holgorsen and RB Hunter, the Cowboys return 9 starters including QB Weeden and Biletnikoff winner Blackmon from an offense that avg’d 44 ppg. The Cowboys do have tough road games at Texas A&M, Texas, Texas Tech and Missouri and that is why they will not be ranked even higher in the preseason AP Poll.
#8 FLORIDA ST-HC Fisher inherited a good situation last year as they were loaded on offense with 9 returning starters and they got most of their toughest ACC foes at home. 7 of my 9 sets of power ratings called for their first double digit win season since 2003 and they did just that beating in-state rival Florida, getting to the ACC champ game and then beating South Carolina in the bowl game. This year they return 16 starters, bring in one of the best frosh classes in the country and should be the ACC favorites.

#7 BOISE ST-Last year the Broncos were one of the most experienced teams in the country with 20 returning starters and started out #3 in the AP Poll. A win over Virginia Tech in the opener had them thinking national title but a heartbreaking loss to Nevada in OT late in the year cost them a BCS Bid. Nonetheless they still won 12+ games for the third year in a row and this year return 14 starters including QB Moore. While they do move to the MWC and open the season vs Georgia in Atlanta, the Broncos get defending MWC champ TCU at home (where they have not lost a reg ssn gm since 2001) and will probably be favored to win 11 of their 12 games.

#6 TEXAS A&M-Last year I thought the Aggies were a much stronger team than their previous seasons and they made my Most Improved List. After struggling to a 3-3 start HC Sherman made the bold move to bench QB Johnson for backup Tannehill and the Aggies preceded to roll off 6 straight wins including wins over Big 12 powers Oklahoma, Nebraska and Texas en route to only their second 9 win season since 2000. This year they bring back 17 starters on off/def including Tannehill and get Oklahoma St, Missouri and Texas at home.

#5 STANFORD-Last year 3 of my 9 sets of power ratings called for an 11-1 season and after my magazine was published in May, the Cardinal were one of the teams that I thought probably should have been higher in my ratings in my mag come late August. Led by QB Luck, the Cardinal simply went out and had one of their best seasons in school history finishing 12-1 with a dominating win over Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl. This year the Cardinal lose HC Harbaugh to the 49ers but will still be a AP top 5 pick because Luck surprisingly decided to come back for another year and he is probably not only one of the Heisman favorites but also the top NFL prospect in college this year.

#4 LSU-Last year the Tigers returned just 10 starters but surprised many finishing the season 11-2 with a dominating win over Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl. This year they return 8 starters from an offense that avg’d 30 ppg including QB Jefferson who improved his play down the stretch. While they open the season with a huge showdown vs Oregon in Arlington, the Tigers will probably be favored to win the rest of the games with the exception of a road trip to Alabama later in the season.

#3 OREGON-Last year 8 of my 9 sets of power ratings called the Ducks the best team in the Pac-10 and they didn’t disappoint running through their regular season a perfect 12-0 before losing a heartbreaker in the national title game to Auburn. This year the Ducks return just 11 starters on off/def but get QB Thomas and Doak Walker winner RB James back from a offense that avg’d 47 ppg. UO does have a monster non-conf game vs LSU in the opener and have road trips to Arizona, Washington and Stanford but still will be the preseason favorite to win the Pac-10 for a third straight season.

#2 ALABAMA-Last year the Crimson Tide were coming off B2B 12-0 regular seasons and anything less than a repeat national title was going to be a disappointment. While the Tide did finish just 10-3, when they were playing their “A” game as evidence of the 1H of the Auburn game and the Capital One bowl vs 11-1 Michigan St, they were clearly one of the best teams in the country. This year despite the losses of QB McElroy, RB Ingram and WR Jones, the Tide return 15 starters including 9 from a defense that figures to be among the best in the country. While they do have road trips to Penn St, Florida and Auburn none of those teams figure to be in the preseason top 10 so they have a great opportunity of being favored in every game this season.

#1 OKLAHOMA-Last year I surprised many by ranking the Sooners as my #1 team in my pre-season magazine despite coming off a 5-loss season in 2009. While they did not win the national title, the Sooners did go 12-2 winning the Big 12 title and dominated UConn in the Fiesta Bowl. This year OU will be ranked #1 in the pre-season by nearly everyone as they return 15 starters on off/def including QB Jones, WR Broyles and LB Lewis. Their schedule sets up nicely with a bye before their road trip to Florida St (a team they dominated LY 47-17). In Big 12 play naturally there is the Red River Rivalry game vs Texas who is coming off a 5-7 season and the only other huge hurdle could be the season finale at Oklahoma St but the Sooners have won the Bedlam rivalry 8 straight times and have an overall mark of 82-16-7 vs their in-state rivals. With their key returning starters back and a favorable schedule, the Sooners should get the nod as the Preseason AP #1 team!

THOSE THAT JUST MISSED OUT:

I mentioned at the start of the blog that last year I had nine of the top 10 teams correctly predicted and it was the same case in 2009 where I also missed out by 1. If one of the team’s I have projected in the Top 10 doesn’t make the polls, there are 4 teams that have a shot at jumping into the Top 10.

Right now, I would project Ohio State to be #11 heading into the season and the only reason they are this low is the fact that several of their key players including QB Pryor and their top RB and WR will miss the first 5 games. Also their first game back is a road trip to Nebraska but I still feel with their strong finish to the 2010 season and the fact that they have won or shared 6 straight Big 10 titles will get them the nod over the Cornhuskers.

At #12 in the AP poll should be Nebraska who returns QB Martinez and 7 starters on defense. Nebraska would have been higher but there has been some turmoil already this past off-season and they were unimpressive in their bowl game.

The rest of the teams are #13 Arkansas and #14 Wisconsin.

There you have it – My projections for the AP Preseason Top 10. As mentioned a couple of times in this article, these WILL NOT BE THE TOP 10 IN MY MAGAZINE. As you know, I tend to go out on a limb in a lot of cases and have a lot of surprise picks in my magazine. Those will be unveiled at the start of June when my magazine hits the newsstands but when the first AP poll comes out in August this year, go ahead and take this list and compare it and you’ll find that probably 9 or maybe even all 10 will be in the Preseason AP Top 10 this year.

Over the weekend the preseason AP Top 25 was released with defending national champ Alabama clearly ranked #1. Every year I am particularly intrigued by who is placed in the preseason AP Top 10 as I try to predict what those teams will be shortly after the previous season is completed.

Most AP voters usually look at a couple of criteria when they evaluate a team for the upcoming season. First they look at the number of returning starters that the team has coming back particularly at the offensive skill positions. A team that returns its starting QB and a combination of its RB and WRs is often times more highly thought of than a team that loses its starting QB but returns its entire offensive line. Similarly a team that returns most of its starters on offense but loses a lot of its defensive playmakers usually is more highly thought of than a team that returns a majority of its defensive starters but loses its skill position players on offense.

Another factor that is heavily weighted is the performance of the team in the bowl game, which undoubtedly is the lasting image of that team in the offseason. A team coming off a huge bowl win usually is more highly thought of than a team that is coming off a bowl loss regardless of what their schedule looks like for the upcoming season.
Using these criteria and a few more, I project the preseason AP Top 10 every year at the conclusion of the previous season, which in most cases is nearly 7 months in advance. Now as you all know, a lot can happen from January to August and for further proof on that check on my players lost list, which is all the changes that have been made for each team since my magazine was published in May.

Last year my projected Top 10 for the AP Poll was #1 Florida, #2 Texas, #3 USC, #4 Oklahoma, #5 Alabama, #6 Virginia Tech, #7 LSU, #8 Oklahoma St, #9 Ohio St and #10 Mississippi. The actual AP Top 10 was #1 Florida, #2 Texas, #3 Oklahoma, #4 USC, #5 Alabama, #6 Ohio St, #7 Virginia Tech, #8 Mississippi and#9 was a tie between Oklahoma St/Penn St.

I nailed nine of the ten teams that appeared in the Preseason Top 10 with the only exception being LSU/Penn St and I may have had something to do with that. It’s interesting to note that of the main preseason magazines, only two had Penn St ranked in the Top 10 and I had them my #1 surprise team and ranked #5. Most had Penn St out of the Top 10. Perhaps since I had them rated so high in my magazine, it influenced a few voters across the country, bumping them into the Top 10.

This year way back in my February 2nd Blog, I projected the preseason AP Top 10 would be #1 Alabama, #2 Ohio St, #3 Boise St, #4 Oregon, #5 Texas, #6 TCU, #7 Iowa, #8 Florida, #9 Nebraska and #10 Virginia Tech.

The actual AP Top 10 which came out over the weekend was #1 Alabama, #2 Ohio St, #3 Boise St, #4 Florida, #5 Texas, #6 TCU, #7 Oklahoma, #8 Nebraska, #9 Iowa and #10 Virginia Tech.

For the second year in a row I nailed nine of the ten teams that appeared in the Preseason Top 10 with the only exception being Oregon/Oklahoma, which I can defend easily.

First, at the time I wrote my projection back in early February Duck QB Jeremiah Masoli was not yet suspended. With Masoli still in the fold at that point Oregon had 17 returning starters including RB LaMichael James and Masoli in the backfield. The Ducks clearly would have been a preseason Top 10 team and probably Top 5 had Masoli not been kicked off the team. Even without Masoli Oregon was still rated #11 in the preseason poll.

The team that I did not have in my projected AP Top 10 was Oklahoma (#7) and if you have purchased my magazine or listed to one of my radio shows across the country you know I think very highly of the Sooners this year as I have them ranked #1. Like Penn St last year perhaps since I had them rated so high in my magazine, it influenced a few voters across the country, bumping them into the Top 10 despite the Sooners having five losses last year and the fact that they did not even finish in the final AP Top 25.

I also am pleased that six of the 10 teams are ranked in the exact position that I projected way back in February including the top 3 in Alabama, Ohio St and Boise St. I also had Texas, TCU and Virginia Tech ranked in their exact positions in the poll.

So there you have it, next year when you see my preseason AP Top 10 projection in late January or early February go ahead and compare it to the first AP poll that will come out several months later and I know you’ll find that probably 9 or maybe even all 10 will be in the Preseason AP Top 10.

Only 10 Days Until the First College Football Game!

National signing day was yesterday as the top rated high school players all over the country signed with their favorite school. It is one of the most important days of the year for each college team as usually the teams with the best recruiting classes year in and year out usually find themsevles in the Top 25.

Covering college football as I do takes 52 weeks a year as it is and while I personally do not scout the high school games and rate each player I do compile my rankings based on the many different recruiting services across the country that follow and scout HS football year round. I not only like to use all of the biggest and best services, but I also use regional reports as well. The colleges themselves use many of these services to get the latest information on recruits.

While my final recruiting rankings will not be completed for another month, several recruiting sources that I use have released their Top 10 ratings for 2010.

Top 10 Classes By Recruiting Sources

Nearly five weeks after Urban Meyer resigned/unresigned the Gators signed what many sources feel is the #1 class in the country. Led by DE Ronald Powell and DT Sharriff Floyd, Florida signed more top defensive prospects than anybody with Dominique Easley, Darrin Kitchens and Matt Elam just to name a few. On offense the Gators signed 4 WRs in Chris Dunkley, Adrian Coxson, Quinton Dunbar, and Solomon Patton to reload a position hit hard by graduation/NFL Draft losses.

Year in and year HC Mack Brown signs some of the top players in the country and most of the time he doesn’t even have to recruit outside the home state of Texas. This year the Longhorns shored up their front 7 which suffers several losses to graduation and the NFL draft with LB Jordan Hicks and DE Jackson Jeffcoat.

Lane Kiffin has been known as a great recruiter from his time as an assistant at USC and last year signed my #10 class in his 1st year at Tennessee. This year he has been the HC at USC for just 3 weeks and signed one of the best classes with a strong finish on Signing Day. Kiffin and his assistants did a great job keeping together the class that was already assembled by Pete Carrol which included WR Kyle Prater and RB Dillon Baxter. The Trojans also added Seantrel Henderson, Markeith Ambles, Nickell Robey, and Hayes Pullard in recent days to elevate themselves in the Top 10.

Auburn was one of the surprises this year in recruiting and despite having to go up against in-state rival Alabama who is coming of a national title season, HC Gene Chizik was able to sign one of the top RBs in the country in Michael Dyer and possibly the #1 JUCO player in QB Cameron Newton. When my recruiting rankings come out in the magazine, Auburn will probably have their highest ranking ever!

Alabama had my #1 class last year and #3 class in 2008. This year Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide fresh off their national title, signed one of the top classes with one of the nations top QBs in Phillip Sims. Alabama returns only 2 starters back on defense this year so getting some top prospects on D was a top priority. The Tide fulfilled their needs especially in the secondary with CBs Demarcus Milliner, Dequan Menzie, and John Fulton plus S Jarrick Williams.

Top Impact Freshman

1. DE Ronald Powell, Florida (6-4 230) The Gators lose DEs Carlos Dunlap and Jermaine Cunningham to the NFL however, Powell who many recruiting services have as the #1 overall player in the country has the size and the speed (4.52) to get significant playing time right away on the opposite side of Justin Trattou. Powell was also named the MVP of the Army All-American game which is one of the top HS all-star games.

2. DT Sharriff Floyd, Florida (6-3 310) While the Gators have plenty of experience coming back at DT in Omar Hunter (11 sts), Terron Sanders (8 sts) and Jaye Howard (4 sts), Floyd will probably see early playing time. Sharriff already benches 400+ lbs and squats 500+. Many recruiting services ranked Floyd as the top DT in the country.

3. WR Kyle Prater, USC (6-5 205) Prater will get a chance make an early impact for the Trojans at the WR position similar to what Julio Jones (Alabama), AJ Green (Georgia) and Michael Floyd (Notre Dame) did for their teams in their freshman seasons. Prater has decent speed (4.5) to go along with his size and also has great leaping ability with a 41′ vertical. With Damian Williams leaving early for the NFL, don’t be surprised to see Prater starting right away.

4. DB Keenan Allen, California (6-3 195) California went all the way to North Carolina to get Allen who will get a chance to start right away for the Bears with limited experience back at the Safety position. With his size Allen could develop into a Safety/OLB hybrid that the Bears call their Rover.

5. WR Da’Rick Rogers, Tennessee (6-3 206) New HC Dooley got Rogers to rethink his commitment to Georgia and was able to sign him with the Volunteers yesterday. Rogers has all the tools to be a big time WR at the college level with his size and speed (4.4). Rogers finished his senior season with 1641 rec yds (19.1) and 22 TDs. Even with Moore, Jones and Teague back with starting experience Rogers will have an opportunity to play right away.

6. RB Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina (6-0 210) Lattimore earned Mr. Football in South Carolina and will compete right away with returning RB Kenny Miles for the starting job. Lattimore has good speed (4.46) and many recruiting experts feel he will gain at least 10 lbs and be similar to a Knowshon Moreno/Carnell Williams type RB.

7. RB Michael Dyer, Auburn (5-8 201) Dyer was the Gatorade Player of the Year in Arkansas after rushing for 2,484 yds avg 207 rush ypg. Dyer is strong for his size with a 320 lb bench and a 450 lb squat. Even with 3 players with starting experience back at RB for the Tigers, Dyer will probably get some early carries.

8. OT Robert Crisp, NC State (6-7 299) Most OL do not see playing time as Freshman, however Crisp has a chance to start right away for the Wolfpack at OT opposite of Vermiglio. Most recruiting analysts love Crisp’s athletic ability for his size.

9. DE Owamagbe Odighizuwa, UCLA (6-3 234) Despite weighing only 234 lbs most recruiting analysts love his strength. The Bruins have only 2 full time starters back on their front 7 and Owamagbe could play right away at DE or OLB.

10. DE Chris Martin, California (6-4 240) Martin will get the chance to play right away with DE Cameron Jordan the only player back for the Bears with starting experience at DE. Many experts feel that Martin could probably add 30 lbs to his frame which would make him a great fit in a 3-4 scheme which Cal currently runs.

Well here it is, my projected AP Top 10 for next year as of February 1, 2010! I will mention it now and I will mention it numerous times throughout today’s blog but this is not MY preseason Top 10 for next year, it is where I project the AP Top 10 to come out at the start of the season.

Last year my projected Top 10 for the AP Poll was #1 Florida, #2 Texas, #3 USC, #4 Oklahoma, #5 Alabama, #6 Virginia Tech, #7 LSU, #8 Oklahoma St, #9 Ohio St and #10 Mississippi. The actual AP Top 25 was #1 Florida, #2 Texas, #3 Oklahoma, #4 USC, #5 Alabama, #6 Ohio St, #7 Virginia Tech, #8 Mississippi and#9 was a tie between Oklahoma St/Penn St.

I nailed nine of the ten teams that appeared in the Preseason Top 10 with the only exception being LSU/Penn St and I may have had something to do with that. It’s interesting to note that of the main preseason magazines, only two had Penn St ranked in the Top 10 and I had them my #1 surprise team and ranked #5. Most had Penn St out of the Top 10. Perhaps since I had them rated so high in my magazine, it influenced a few voters across the country, bumping them into the Top 10.

Now let’s take a look at this year’s projected Preseason AP Top 10:

#10 VIRGINIA TECH – Expectations were high for Virginia Tech last year as they were the Preseason favorite to win the ACC but lost 3 games. They did rebound to win their final 5 including a 37-14 blowout of Tennessee in the Chick-fil-A Bowl. VT not only returns QB Tyrod Taylor and RB Ryan Williams, but Darren Evans was 2nd Tm ACC in 2008 rushing for 1,265 yds (4.4) and he also returns at the RB spot. DC Bud Foster did not land a head coaching job so he returns once again but will have some work to do on that side of the ball as they replace 7 starters (had 7 starters back last year). Depending on the events of signing day and the spring, there is a chance Georgia Tech could take this spot over VT if they become the preseason favorite in the ACC Coastal Division, but for the moment, I give the Hokies a better shot at being in the Top 10.

#9 NEBRASKA – Even though the Huskers lose the player that will likely be the top pick in the draft in Ndamukong Suh and four of their top 5 tacklers, they do return DT Jared Crick who is 6’6” 285 and had 9.5 sacks. Last year’s offense struggled with just 323 yards per game including 282 ypg in Big 12 play. That was with inexperience throughout the lineup and this year the unit returns intact and should be much improved. The Huskers figure to be the preseason favorite for the Big 12 North.

#8 FLORIDA – The Gators do lose Tim Tebow and are a less experienced unit than they were heading into last season. Keep in mind in 2009 they were the consensus Preseason #1 gaining more preseason votes than any team had ever done so and had 18 starters returning. This year on defense, they lose six starters and offensively lose Tebow as well as their top TE and WR. There is still plenty of talent left for the Gators and while they do have to travel to Alabama on October 2nd, they will probably be a favorite in the rest of their games.

#7 IOWA – Last year the Hawkeyes entered the season #22 and even I had them only #20 but did write an article in July which compared them to Alabama of 2008. Keep in mind Alabama finished the regular season #1 in ‘08 despite only being ranked #24 to start the year. Just like Alabama, all of Iowa’s losses the previous year were close and keeping them down in the rankings was a schedule that had road games vs Penn St, Wisconsin, Michigan St and Ohio St. The Hawkeyes almost went undefeated during the regular season and had they not lost QB Stanzi vs Northwestern, could actually have been playing in the Title game. This year they will not be under the radar. DE Adrain Clayborn turned down the NFL and the bulk of their outstanding defense that shutdown Georgia Tech in the bowl holding them to 155 yards offense and 9 FD’s, is back. Offensively almost all of the key players are back as well and Iowa gets to host Ohio St. The Hawkeyes’ road slate this year is vs Arizona, Michigan, Indiana, Northwestern and Minnesota which is much more manageable than last season.

#6 TCU – The Frogs dominated most of their opponents last year. They had only 2 games which they won by less than 16 and that was a 4 point win at Clemson and 3 point win at Air Force. They did have a disappointing bowl game vs Boise St. Last year’s Frog squad had just 10 returning starters but was arguably the most talented of the non-BCS schools. This year the Frogs lose DE Jerry Hughes but have 16 returning starters including QB Andy Dalton who led the Frogs most potent offense in recent memory. Last year they had to replace their top 3 tacklers and this year have 3 of the top 4 back and a look at their schedule only shows road games at SMU, Colorado St, New Mexico, UNLV and Utah.

#5 TEXAS – You have to wonder how the national championship would have turned out had Colt McCoy not been injured early 1Q. While they did not win the national title, it did give backup QB Garrett Gilbert (PS#2) some tremendous experience at a high level. The Horns only lose 4 starters on defense, although they were 4 of the top 5 tacklers. Offensively, McCoy is gone as is their top WR Shipley but they have 6 starters back and should be solid once again. They do have to play both Nebraska and Oklahoma away from home but last year won their games by 22 points per game and even with the loss of McCoy, will be one of the top teams in the country.

#4 OREGON – The Ducks did not start 2009 off in a solid fashion and looked in complete disarray after the opener but rebounded to have a fine season blowing out USC 47-20 and California 42-3 in Autzen Stadium. The Ducks probably would have been a contender for the #1 spot had they won the Rose Bowl but since AP voters remember the last game, the Ducks probably will not be #1 or #2 this year. Last year’s squad had only 9 returning starters and then had a lot of attrition after new coach Chip Kelly took over. This year’s squad is in much better shape as they return an outstanding 17 starters including their top rusher, LaMichael James (1,546 (16.7) and QB Masoli. Defensively after returning just 5 starters last year they only replace 2.5 this year. The Ducks will be the preseason favorite to win the Pac-10 especially with USC losing Coach Pete Carroll.

#3 BOISE STATE – Last year I had Boise St rated as the top non-BCS team heading into the year and for the 4th straight year a top non-BCS team made it to a BCS Bowl. Boise St then knocked off TCU in the bowl game. Last year’s Boise St team had just 11 returning starters and this year the team returns almost intact with 21 starters plus both specialists returning. The only loss is CB Kyle Wilson. This is the best Boise St team ever and I expect them to garner numerous preseason 1st place votes in the AP poll. Some of the voters will have Boise St ranked lower because they play in the WAC, which is why I pegged them at #3 despite the fact I think they’ll get more 1st place votes than Ohio St in the August poll.

#2 OHIO STATE - The Buckeyes finally won a BCS game once again with their domination of Oregon in the Rose Bowl. The Buckeyes had a 419-260 yd edge and 26-12 FD edge. While they probably would rank in the Top 5 if they only returned one starter, as long as that starter was Terrelle Pryor, this team is more talented than just their QB. The Buckeyes had a young offensive line last year that was poor in the first half of the season but great in the second half and returns nine starters on offense and six on defense. There is some talent departing for the NFL, but Ohio St deals with draft losses every year and will likely enter the season #2 in the AP poll.

#1 ALABAMA – Take the defending national champ and return Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram as well as RB Trent Richardson (PS#2) and they now have an experienced QB in Greg McElroy who threw for 2,508 (60.9%) with a 17-4 ratio after entering last season with just 196 career pass yards. Julio Jones was banged up during the season and returns healthy and the Tide has 8 starters back on offense. It is a concern that they return just 2 starters on defense but Saban always fashions a fine unit and in 2008 they had just 5 starters back and allowed 14.3 ppg. Alabama will not enter the season with the same level of favoritism as Florida, but it should be close as most voters look at QB, RB and receivers and last year’s record and using that criteria, the Tide will clearly be a preseason #1 team.

THOSE THAT JUST MISSED OUT:

I mentioned at the start of the blog that last year I had nine of the top 10 teams correctly predicted and it was the same case in 2008 where I also missed out by 1. If one of the team’s I have projected in the Top 10 doesn’t make the polls, there are 5 teams that have a shot at jumping into the Top 10.

Right now, I would project Georgia Tech to be #11 heading into the season and as mentioned, if the events between now and August are positive for GT, they could even leap past Virginia Tech as the preseason favorite in the ACC.

At #12 in the AP poll should be Wisconsin who had a fine finish to the season and returns 16 starters.

The rest of the top 15 are #13 Oklahoma, #14 Miami, Fla and #15 LSU.

There you have it – My projections for the AP Preseason Top 10. As mentioned a couple of times in this article, these WILL NOT BE THE TOP 10 IN MY MAGAZINE. As you know, I tend to go out on a limb in a lot of cases and have a lot of surprise picks in my magazine. Those will be unveiled at the start of June when my magazine hits the newsstands but when the first AP poll comes out in August this year, go ahead and take this list and compare it and you’ll find that probably 9 or maybe even all 10 will be in the Preseason AP Top 10 this year.