Remember when Oklahoma won the National Title in 2000? Not a single OU starter lost a single start due to injury! My research has shown that teams that benefited from very few injuries, in this case 6 or less, usually have a weaker season the next year.

The bottom line is, teams that have suffered a lot of injuries the previous year will generally have a better year the next season. A lot of backups were forced to play during the injury-riddled year, gaining valuable experience and the team figures to not be so injury-prone the next year.

In a study over the last 7 years, my research shows that if a team had 32 or more starts lost to injury the prior season, they improved or had the same record the next year on 56 out of 67 occasions for an 83.5% success rate. How about teams that are really banged up? Well from 2001-2005 12 teams went through seasons of having 40 or more combined starts lost and ALL 12 had the same or better record the next season. It surprises me that 17 teams met that criteria in 2006-’07 but only 7 had a stronger record the next year and 9 had a weaker record.

In 2008, Utah was at the top of the chart with 51 starts lost to injury and they went from 9-4 to 13-0 and #2 in the country! Last year was another solid year as 9 teams had 35 or more starts lost to injury in ‘09 and 8 of the 9 improved or had the same record (88%!). Here are the teams that suffered 32 or more starts lost to injury last year:

Most Amount of Starts Lost to Injury in 2010

As you can see North Carolina thanks to the NCAA suspensions led the country with 89 starts lost and it was one of the main reasons the Tar Heels did not meet my lofty expectations. San Jose St struggled big time with injuries last year and will benefit from better luck this year in MacIntyre’s 2nd season. UCLA also figures to be much improved after last years 59 starts lost to injury. Look for 13 or 14 of these teams to rebound this year and improve their record.

Now let’s look at the teams that had great fortune with very few injuries. With teams playing a 12 game schedule, I went for the magic number of 6 lost, figuring that is less than one half of one starter lost to injury during the year. Over the past 7 years only 17 of the 56 teams (30.3%) that had this good fortune managed to improve their record the next year. Last year there were NINE teams on this list and ALL NINE had a weaker record with SIX of them bowl teams from 2009 that finished with a losing record in 2010!!! There were a lot of teams (16) that had this good fortune last year.

Least Amount of Starts Lost to Injury in 2010

Baylor had the fewest starts lost to injury with only 1 all year and it was one of the main reasons the Bears went to their first bowl game since 1994.Expectations were low coming into 2010 for Oklahoma St as they had the least experienced team in the country but they only suffered two starts lost all year and surprised many by winning a school record 11 games. Oklahoma was #3 in most starts lost in 2009 with 42 but last year had much better luck with only 4 starts lost and went from 8 to 12 wins.

However the above teams will probably not be as fortunate this year and if the past trends hold up only 3 of them will improve their record this year.

Here is the complete list broken down by total starts lost and also by starts lost on offense and defense which can be indicators of one unit underachieving or overachieving last year.

Starts Lost to Injury 2010

PhilSteele.com will have a page updated weekly dedicated to starts lost again this year. We will track each team’s starts lost for the 2011 season so you can see which teams are really banged up and those that have remained very healthy. We even include start charts for each of the teams and also update them weekly!

Only 27 Days Until the First College Football Game!!!

Today’s Blog is an in-depth look at who plays the toughest schedule this year and also some of the flaws in the other methods in determining schedule strength.

At the beginning of the season, the NCAA usually releases a rating of each team’s schedule based on their opponents’ win/loss record from the previous season, This is a good method but it does have its obvious flaws.

The first flaw is basing the ratings on opponents records from the previous season. Let’s look at a couple of examples. At the start of 2007 I had Illinois rated as one of the top teams in the Big Ten and they went on to knock off #1 Ohio St and play in the ROSE Bowl. My ratings had them as an above avg opponent at the start of the year and they finished the regular season #13 (AP). Using 2006’s record as the criteria for determining the strength of an opponent’s schedule, however, you would count them as a 2-10 team! In 2008, I had teams like Ole Miss and Minnesota on my Most Improved Teams List meaning I thought they were bowl caliber but using the previous year’s record you would have counted them as 3-9 and 1-11 teams (both made bowls, Ole Miss finished #14). On the flip side of the coin, Notre Dame was in an obvious rebuilding year in ’07 yet was still counted as a 10-3 team if you based strength of schedule on 2006’s record and they were far from a January bowl team in 2007 at just 3-9!

The second flaw is basing it on pure overall records. If a team plays an FCS (IAA) school that was 11-1 in 2007, that counts as a MUCH tougher game in the NCAA ratings than facing a team like Alabama who was 7-6 in ‘07 but #1 at the end of ‘08 regular season! My ratings had Bama ranked as a much tougher team than any FCS foe. To give you an example from 2002, my ratings foresaw that teams playing Kansas St were facing a Top 10 team based on my preseason ratings. The NCAA strength of schedule ranking rated a game against Kansas St as just a game vs a 6-6 opp (2001 record). Kanas St finished #7 AP for 2002 and walloped their opp’s by an avg of 45-12, not exactly numbers from a typical middle-of-the-road opponent.

On the flip side let’s look at 2009’s Ball St team. They were in an obvious rebuilding year and my power ratings had them only winning 2 or 3 games. My methods gave teams credit for a weak foe when facing Ball St but basing it on the previous year’s record, teams were given credit for playing a 12-2 team which is what they finished in 2008! That is a MAJOR flaw!

Here are the NCAA rankings for 2011’s Opponent Winning %

NCAA Method (Opponent Win %)

Now below are my 2010 toughest schedules, which take two major factors into account. The first is my 9 sets of Power Ratings. This ensures that an FCS team is rated much lower than Texas and Georgia, two Top 20 teams that finished with a losing record last year! The second factor is the amount of home and away games played. As an example, this year some teams will have as many as 8 home games, while others play as many as 8 on the road. Below are this year’s toughest schedules rated from the most difficult to the easiest. The toughest schedule this year according to my rankings belongs to Colorado while the easiest belongs to Ohio.

Phil Steele’s 2011 Toughest Schedules

Here are the teams with the biggest discrepancy in the two methods of determining toughest schedule and you can check out each team’s schedules to see which method you think is better. I list the difference in rankings between the two in ( )’s. Most UNDERRATED schedules (teams that face a tougher slate than the NCAA’s % rankings): 1. UCLA (63) 2. Stanford (56) 3. Utah (53) 4. Vanderbilt (39) 5. Maryland (33) 5. Florida St (33) 7. Auburn (30) 7. Rice (30) 9. Georgia Tech (24) 10. Tennessee (23).

Here are the most OVERRATED schedules (teams that face an easier slate than the NCAA’s % rankings): 1. Toledo (50) 2. Army (47) 3. Rutgers (45) 4. Penn St (42) 5. Bowling Green (39) 6. New Mexico (38) 7. Central Michigan (32) 8. UNLV (25) 9. Nebraska (31) 10. SMU (29).

Naturally teams would much rather face a team from a non-BCS conference like Nevada that went 13-1 last year (but does lose Kaepernick) than say a team like Texas that went 5-7 but will ranked this year. Some teams that really will throw off the SOS if you based it on last year’s records are Miami, Oh (10-4 LY) and on the other side of the coin Cincinnati (4-8). I guarantee you when these two meet this year at Miami, Cincy will be a large favorite and LY they beat the RedHawks 45-3. Based only on LY’s record Miami, Oh is a vastly superior squad.

Now let’s pick out some teams to show you the differences between my method and the NCAA’s and you can decide which one you think is more accurate.

Based on 2010’s opponent records Toledo plays the 31st toughest schedule while UCLA takes on an easy #91 slate. UCLA’s “cupcake” #91 schedule features Houston, Texas, Stanford, USC and Arizona St (10 BCS teams total). Toledo’s much “tougher” slate has just ONE AQ and also one FCS team. Put UCLA vs the #31 Toledo schedule and they are thinking double digit wins. Toledo will be lucky to be favored in 8 or 9 games this year vs their #31 schedule but would be favored in ONE game vs UCLA’s #91 schedule. Do you really think Tim Beckman would trade schedules? For the record my SOS has UCLA’s schedule at #28 and Toledo’s at #81.

Here is another example. Based on 2010’s opponent records, Army plays the 49th toughest schedule while Stanford takes on an easy #105 slate. The Cardinal’s “cupcake” schedule features 11 BCS teams including 3 top 25 teams in USC, Oregon and Notre Dame. Army’s much “tougher” schedule has just 3 AQ teams and one FCS team. If you give Stanford the schedule Army plays this year, they would probably be a double digit favorite over every team and a clear favorite to go 12-0 and play for the national title. Meanwhile Army a bowl team from last year might be a favorite in only two games on Stanford’s schedule. For the record I have Stanford’s schedule at #49 while Army’s is #96.

A great example using two BCS teams is according to the 2010’s opponent records Utah faces the 86th toughest schedule while Rutgers faces the 32nd toughest schedule. According to the NCAA’s method, Utah’s schedule which features 6 road games (incl at USC, BYU and Pittsburgh) is much weaker than Rutgers’ schedule which sees them play “only” 4 true road games. Also no one can argue, the Pac-12 is a tougher conference than the Big East.

So which method do you think is better? Respond back with your questions/comments via Facebook or Twitter!

Only 46 Days Until the First College Football Game!!

For more than 7 years I have published an “Experience Chart” in my National College Football Preview. The old version of this chart just took into account the overall experience from the 2 deep for each squad. Last year I revised the Experience Chart and created a New and Improved version. The new chart uses 20% of the experience grade from the old chart, 20% from the % of lettermen returning, 20% from the % of tackles returning, 20% from the % of yards returning and 20% from the career starts of the offensive line.

The most experienced teams when using the old chart were usually the service academies which play a lot of seniors and juniors. Using the old method (which is listed below) the top 5 most experienced teams in terms of upperclassmen in the two deep are: 1. Hawaii 2. Navy 2. Army 4. UAB and 5. Air Force. Iowa St ranks the highest among BCS teams coming in at #10.

The least experienced teams using this method are: 120. New Mexico and 119. BYU. Maryland, Pittsburgh, UCLA, LSU and Vanderbilt are tied at 114. The next paragraph is an explanation of how the chart works and below that is the old version of the Experience Chart.

Experience can be a big thing in college football. A player gains valuable experience for every year he plays and becomes a better player because of it. Players also mature physically while they are in college and there is a big difference between a raw 17 or 18 year old true freshman and a mature and physically stronger 22 year old senior. Some teams that send their players away on missions, like BYU, routinely have Seniors up to 25 years old. There is also a coaching adage that for every freshman starter you have, you lose one game. With that in mind, we compiled the following chart. It lists the total amount of senior starters on the team as well as seniors in the two deep. It also shows all of the juniors, sophomores and freshmen starters and the total amount in the two deep.

To formulate a point system, I awarded 3 points for every senior starter (2.5 for every additional senior in the two deep) 2 points for every junior starter (1.5 for every additional junior in the two deep) 1 point for a sophomore starter (0.5 for every additional soph in the 2 deep then subtracted 1 point for every frosh starter and .5 for every frosh in the two deep. The total points column uses that formula to figure out the points awarded to a team. The number before the team is where they came up in my overall ranking of all the teams in the NCAA. This list was compiled during magazine season and there have been some changes to the 2 deep since it went to press, which may not be accounted for. This chart will give you an idea of the most experienced and least experienced teams in the NCAA this year.

Please check PhilSteele.com everyday to get my Top 30 Countdown, which posted #15 Auburn yesterday. Thru June 16th, I will post both magazine pages on a new team ranked in the Top 30 and you can get an early look on how I breakdown your favorite team. Remember those magazine pages are available for only 24 hours for you to download. Today, Iowa comes in at #14.

Also on PhilSteele.com around June 15th, we will be posting the players who are no longer with each team since the magazine went to press more than a month ago. What I do in my personal magazine is circle the players and that way you can tell at a glance which teams suffer the most attrition and those that do not lose anybody. Remember when Oklahoma won their National Title in 2000, not a single starter missed a single start due to injury. This list will be updated DAILY so check it often. Also during the season we will provide an updated starts lost list for each school so you can see which schools are banged up and which fall into the zero starts lost category. This section will also update late additions.

Also the official on sale date of the magazine is June 8th, but some people have already seen them in the bookstores where the cost is just $8.95. We did get a shipment into our offices this past week and if you want to order thru the offices the cost is $13.70 with postage. Call 1-866-918-7711 or visit the PhilSteele.com store to order yours today.

I will be back tomorrow with the final look at the Experience Chart with the five different factors added together.

Only 91 DAYS LEFT UNTIL THE FIRST COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME!!!

In Today’s blog I will start releasing my Preseason All Conference teams with the PAC-10 and Independent teams.

The Pac-10 is very balanced this year as nine of the ten teams (Washington St) have a player on my 1st Team. Washington leads the way with five players led by QB Jake Locker. USC and Arizona both have four players on my 1st Team while Oregon, Oregon St, UCLA and Stanford each have 3 players.

Oregon St RB Jacquizz Rodgers and WR James Rodgers both appear on my preseason 1st Team for the 2nd year in a row as well as USC OC Kristofer O’Dowd, California LB Mike Mohamed, UCLA K Kai Forbath and California P Bryan Anger.

Download All-Pac 10 Team.PDF

With just 3 independents left and one of them being a BCS team loaded with VHT players and the other two being service academies, it is tough to do a balanced All-Independent team. However, Navy has been catching up with Notre Dame over the past few years and have beaten the Irish twice in the last three years! Notre Dame leads the way with 14 1st Team players while Navy has 8 and Army 4.

QB Ricky Dobbs becomes the 1st non-Notre Dame QB to be named preseason 1st Team since Dan Orlovsky (Connecticut) in 2003! Also Notre Dame RB Armando Allen, Navy S Wyatt Middleton and Notre Dame CB Darrin Walls have been named to my preseason 1st Team 3 years in a row!

Download All-Independent Team.PDF

Please check PhilSteele.com everyday to get my Top 30 Countdown which continued yesterday with #28 Utah. Every day now thru June 16th, I will post both magazine pages on each team and you can get an early look on how I breakdown your favorite team. Remember those magazine pages are available for only 24 hours for you to download. Today Pittsburgh comes in at #27.

I will be back tomorrow with the All-ACC and All-MAC conference teams!

ONLY 17 DAYS UNTIL PHIL STEELE’S 2010 MAGAZINE IS ON SALE! 

104 DAYS LEFT UNTIL THE FIRST COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME!!!

Covering college football as I do takes 52 weeks a year as it is and while I personally do not scout the high school games and rate each player I do compile my rankings based on the many different recruiting services across the country that follow and scout HS football year round. I not only like to use all of the biggest and best services, but I also use regional reports as well. The colleges themselves use many of these services to get the latest information on recruits.

When we receive a recruiting magazine, we translate each player’s ranking into a points system from 1-100 and then log each and every player into the computer and give them a point total from each source. Naturally, the more they are mentioned and the higher they are rated by each publication, the more total points they accrue. After months of entering all of this information, I sort the list by position and by total points and then rank the players from most points to least.

In today’s blog I have included the top incoming freshman Kickers/Punters and the Top 75 Incoming Jucos for 2010. Each one of these players is ranked in the Top 500 prospects regardless of position and will appear in my preseason magazine. I have also posted the top individual classes for each position. Since we want the college preview to continue to be the most in-depth and accurate magazine out there, if you find any information that is wrong or if you are questioning a player’s ranking please contact brandon@philsteele.com. I will be back on Friday I with the top 75 overall classes and give you my conference by conference recruiting ratings.

Top Incoming Freshman Kickers/Punters

Top Kicker Classes

1. Auburn-The Tigers return Wes Byrum but may have signed his replacement in Cody Parkey who was ranked the #1 Kicker by ESPN and Rivals. Parkey went 9-12 (75%) with all 3 misses from 49+ yds out as a senior.

2. Fresno St-The Bulldogs lost P Robert Malone who was one of the best punters in the country last year but welcome in Matt Darr who was rated the #1 P in the nation and was a 1st-tm All-American from Max Preps.

3. Michigan-The Wolverines need to find a replacement for Zoltan Mesko who was 1st-tm Big 10 and 2nd-tm All-American (AP) last year. Michigan thinks they have found his replacement in Will Hagerup an Army All-American that avg 42.9 yds on 22 punts and had 7 punts inside the 20 as a high school senior.

4. UCLA-The Bruins have a great tradition of outstanding Kickers including Kai Forbath who won the Lou Groza award as the best place-kicker in the nation last year. This year UCLA welcomes in Kip Smith a Parade All-American and 1st-tm USA Today kicker after hitting all 9 FG attempts as a senior.

5. Tennessee-The Vols signed Michael Palardy a US Army All-American that was 1st-tm All-Florida last year. He had a 49 yd punt avg as a senior and 38/43 of his KOs were touchbacks.

6. Alabama- The Crimson Tide get special mention here because they signed the #7, #16 and #21 Kickers led by Cade Foster who is currently enrolled for spring practice and is expected to be the leading replacement for Leigh Tiffin.

Top 75 Incoming Jucos

Top Juco Classes

1. Nebraska-The Cornhuskers bring in three of the top Juco players this year led by #3 Jemarcus Hardwick an OT who is strong and athletic. #6 Lavonte David is an OLB prospect from Fort Scott CC and has great quickness and #27 Chase Harper is a TE that has good hands, solid speed and is big enough to break tackles down the field.

2. Mississippi-Ole Miss brings in a great class of Jucos led by #1 Randall Mackey a QB that was named National Offensive Juco Player of the Year after throwing for 3,122 yds, rushing for 579, and totaling 32 TDs last year. The Rebels also bring in #14 Wayne Dorsey a DE that has superior pass rushing skills and the height and length you look for in a pure pass rusher.

3. Auburn-The Tigers bring in four top 40 players and are led by #2 Cameron Newton, a former Florida QB that passed for 2833 yds (22 TDs) and had 655 rush yds (16 TD) while leading Blinn College to the JC national title last year. Auburn also signed #19 Roszell Gayden a big OT from the College of the Sequoias in California. The Tigers also bring in #34 Joel Bonomolo and #37 Brandon Mosley.

4. Arizona St-The Sun Devils signed four players that finished in my top 75 led by #9 Brice Schwab a huge OT prospect that excels in pass protection. Arizona St will also welcome #12 George Bell a WR who will be a big weapon in the passing game, with his size and speed.

5. Kansas St-HC Bill Snyder always brings in a good class of Juco players and this year is no different with four players in the top 75. The group is led by #11 Adam Davis a DE from Fort Scott CC and has exceptional quickness off the edge.

Covering college football as I do takes 52 weeks a year as it is and while I personally do not scout the high school games and rate each player I do compile my rankings based on the many different recruiting services across the country that follow and scout HS football year round. I not only like to use all of the biggest and best services, but I also use regional reports as well. The colleges themselves use many of these services to get the latest information on recruits.

When we receive a recruiting magazine, we translate each player’s ranking into a points system from 1-100 and then log each and every player into the computer and give them a point total from each source. Naturally, the more they are mentioned and the higher they are rated by each publication, the more total points they accrue. After months of entering all of this information, I sort the list by poistion and by total points and then rank the players from most points to least.

In today’s blog I have included the top incoming freshman QBs and RBs for 2010. Each one of these players is ranked in the Top 500 prospects regardless of position and will appear in my preseason magazine. I have also posted the top individual classes for each position. Since we want the college preview to continue to be the most in-depth and accurate magazine out there, if you find any informataion that is wrong or if you are questioning a player’s ranking please contact brandon@philsteele.com. In Wednesday’s Blog I will post the top WR’s and TE’s with the top OL and DL coming on Friday.

Top Incoming Freshman QBs

Top 5 QB Classes

1. Penn St-The Nittany Lions signed two top QBs in Robert Bolden and Paul Jones. Bolden has great 4.5 speed and had one of the strongest arms at the Elite 11 QB camp. Jones meanwhile was a Army All-American and is currently enrolled and taking part in spring practice. Both players will get a chance at some playing time this year with Daryll Clark graduated and no returning player with significant experience back for 2010.

2. Stanford-The Cardinal signed two top QBs in Brett Nottingham (#14) and Dallas Lloyd (#23). Nottingham threw for more than 7,000 yds in his prep career and was the named the area’s player of the year. Lloyd earned all-state honors and is expected to go on a mission and be back in 2012.

3. Missouri-HC Pinkel and the Tigers are set at the QB position this year with Blaine Gabbert returning however, they signed two more highly touted QBs in James Frankling and Blaine’s younger brother Tyler Gabbert. James is a duel threat QB that has a strong arm and can throw on the run while Tyler has a quick release with a compact throwing motion.

4. Alabama-The Crismon Tide signed the #1 QB in Phillip Sims who was 48-4 as a 4 yr starter in high school. Sims is the Virgnia HS career leader in pass yds (10,725) and TD passes (119) and is currently enrolled for spring. Alabama also signed Blake Sims who is a dual threat qb that was named all-state twice.

5. West Virginia-The Mountaineers signed two highly touted QBs in Barry Brunetti and Jeremy Johnson. Brunetti is a duel threat QB who was an Army All-American and participated in Joe Montana’s “Super 7″ QB Camp while Johnson is also a dual threat Army All-American and was named district MVP twice.

Top Incoming Freshman RBs

Top 5 RB Classes

1. UCLA-The Bruins signed three top RBs in Malcolm Jones, Jordon James and Anthony Barr. Jones was the California Gatorade Player after rushing for 2,477 yds and 45 TDs last year while James rushed for more than 3,700 yds and 37 TDs in his career. Barr was 1st-tm all-state as a junior beofre sitting out most of his senior with an injury and could move to LB in college.

2. Ohio St-The Buckeyes always seem to have their fair share of RBs and this year was no different as they added three talented RBs in Roderick Smith, Corey Brown and Carlos Hyde. Smith is drawing comparisons to Eddie George with his size (6-3 220) and speed (4.5) while Hyde is another big back that is currently enrolled for spring practice. Brown was 2-time all Pennsylvania back that could move to WR with the depth at RB.

3. Oregon-The Ducks signed two highly touted RBs in Lache Seastrunk and Dontae Williams. Seastrunk rushed for more than 4,000 yds and 52 TD in his career while earning all-Texas honors while Williams was a two-time all district player that has good speed.

4. Miami, Fl-The Hurricanes probably will not have returning starter Graig Cooper this year as he suffered a torn ACL but they did sign two top RBs in Eduardo Clements and Storm Johnson. Clements rushed for more than 3,000 yds and 51 TD in his career and Johnson was a Under Armour AA after rushing for nearly 2,000 yds his senior season.

5. Oklahoma-The Sooners always have a stable of backs and this year they welcome two more highly touted backs in Brennan Clay and Roy Finch. Clay as a junior was the 1st ever player in California HS history with 1,000 yds rush/rec in same year and added 2,000 rush yds his senior season. Finch earned 1st-team all-Florida honors after rushing for 1,659 yds and 27 TDs his senior season.

National signing day was yesterday as the top rated high school players all over the country signed with their favorite school. It is one of the most important days of the year for each college team as usually the teams with the best recruiting classes year in and year out usually find themsevles in the Top 25.

Covering college football as I do takes 52 weeks a year as it is and while I personally do not scout the high school games and rate each player I do compile my rankings based on the many different recruiting services across the country that follow and scout HS football year round. I not only like to use all of the biggest and best services, but I also use regional reports as well. The colleges themselves use many of these services to get the latest information on recruits.

While my final recruiting rankings will not be completed for another month, several recruiting sources that I use have released their Top 10 ratings for 2010.

Top 10 Classes By Recruiting Sources

Nearly five weeks after Urban Meyer resigned/unresigned the Gators signed what many sources feel is the #1 class in the country. Led by DE Ronald Powell and DT Sharriff Floyd, Florida signed more top defensive prospects than anybody with Dominique Easley, Darrin Kitchens and Matt Elam just to name a few. On offense the Gators signed 4 WRs in Chris Dunkley, Adrian Coxson, Quinton Dunbar, and Solomon Patton to reload a position hit hard by graduation/NFL Draft losses.

Year in and year HC Mack Brown signs some of the top players in the country and most of the time he doesn’t even have to recruit outside the home state of Texas. This year the Longhorns shored up their front 7 which suffers several losses to graduation and the NFL draft with LB Jordan Hicks and DE Jackson Jeffcoat.

Lane Kiffin has been known as a great recruiter from his time as an assistant at USC and last year signed my #10 class in his 1st year at Tennessee. This year he has been the HC at USC for just 3 weeks and signed one of the best classes with a strong finish on Signing Day. Kiffin and his assistants did a great job keeping together the class that was already assembled by Pete Carrol which included WR Kyle Prater and RB Dillon Baxter. The Trojans also added Seantrel Henderson, Markeith Ambles, Nickell Robey, and Hayes Pullard in recent days to elevate themselves in the Top 10.

Auburn was one of the surprises this year in recruiting and despite having to go up against in-state rival Alabama who is coming of a national title season, HC Gene Chizik was able to sign one of the top RBs in the country in Michael Dyer and possibly the #1 JUCO player in QB Cameron Newton. When my recruiting rankings come out in the magazine, Auburn will probably have their highest ranking ever!

Alabama had my #1 class last year and #3 class in 2008. This year Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide fresh off their national title, signed one of the top classes with one of the nations top QBs in Phillip Sims. Alabama returns only 2 starters back on defense this year so getting some top prospects on D was a top priority. The Tide fulfilled their needs especially in the secondary with CBs Demarcus Milliner, Dequan Menzie, and John Fulton plus S Jarrick Williams.

Top Impact Freshman

1. DE Ronald Powell, Florida (6-4 230) The Gators lose DEs Carlos Dunlap and Jermaine Cunningham to the NFL however, Powell who many recruiting services have as the #1 overall player in the country has the size and the speed (4.52) to get significant playing time right away on the opposite side of Justin Trattou. Powell was also named the MVP of the Army All-American game which is one of the top HS all-star games.

2. DT Sharriff Floyd, Florida (6-3 310) While the Gators have plenty of experience coming back at DT in Omar Hunter (11 sts), Terron Sanders (8 sts) and Jaye Howard (4 sts), Floyd will probably see early playing time. Sharriff already benches 400+ lbs and squats 500+. Many recruiting services ranked Floyd as the top DT in the country.

3. WR Kyle Prater, USC (6-5 205) Prater will get a chance make an early impact for the Trojans at the WR position similar to what Julio Jones (Alabama), AJ Green (Georgia) and Michael Floyd (Notre Dame) did for their teams in their freshman seasons. Prater has decent speed (4.5) to go along with his size and also has great leaping ability with a 41′ vertical. With Damian Williams leaving early for the NFL, don’t be surprised to see Prater starting right away.

4. DB Keenan Allen, California (6-3 195) California went all the way to North Carolina to get Allen who will get a chance to start right away for the Bears with limited experience back at the Safety position. With his size Allen could develop into a Safety/OLB hybrid that the Bears call their Rover.

5. WR Da’Rick Rogers, Tennessee (6-3 206) New HC Dooley got Rogers to rethink his commitment to Georgia and was able to sign him with the Volunteers yesterday. Rogers has all the tools to be a big time WR at the college level with his size and speed (4.4). Rogers finished his senior season with 1641 rec yds (19.1) and 22 TDs. Even with Moore, Jones and Teague back with starting experience Rogers will have an opportunity to play right away.

6. RB Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina (6-0 210) Lattimore earned Mr. Football in South Carolina and will compete right away with returning RB Kenny Miles for the starting job. Lattimore has good speed (4.46) and many recruiting experts feel he will gain at least 10 lbs and be similar to a Knowshon Moreno/Carnell Williams type RB.

7. RB Michael Dyer, Auburn (5-8 201) Dyer was the Gatorade Player of the Year in Arkansas after rushing for 2,484 yds avg 207 rush ypg. Dyer is strong for his size with a 320 lb bench and a 450 lb squat. Even with 3 players with starting experience back at RB for the Tigers, Dyer will probably get some early carries.

8. OT Robert Crisp, NC State (6-7 299) Most OL do not see playing time as Freshman, however Crisp has a chance to start right away for the Wolfpack at OT opposite of Vermiglio. Most recruiting analysts love Crisp’s athletic ability for his size.

9. DE Owamagbe Odighizuwa, UCLA (6-3 234) Despite weighing only 234 lbs most recruiting analysts love his strength. The Bruins have only 2 full time starters back on their front 7 and Owamagbe could play right away at DE or OLB.

10. DE Chris Martin, California (6-4 240) Martin will get the chance to play right away with DE Cameron Jordan the only player back for the Bears with starting experience at DE. Many experts feel that Martin could probably add 30 lbs to his frame which would make him a great fit in a 3-4 scheme which Cal currently runs.

Each day during bowl season in my daily blog, I will give you my forecasts on the bowl games taking place that day. My forecasts will include a detailed write-up with my computer’s projected box score including rushing and passing yards, points and turnovers along with a detailed write-up on each game.

Also check out the bowl matchup section to get the latest and greatest information on all the upcoming bowl games including, game by game stats, 2009 recaps, and checklists for every position and intangible.

EagleBank Bowl

UCLA vs Temple

In the bowl matchup checklist, UCLA has a big talent edge and despite giving 3 intangible checks to Temple, UCLA is still 6 checks (points) better. If this game were played in the regular season in California, UCLA would be favored by 10-14 points. However the wind and 35 degree temperatures in Washington DC will benefit the underdog Owls. Temple’s big O-line and RB Bernard Pierce 1,308 yards rush (5.8) will be suitable for the playing conditions. Both teams have excellent defenses however the California boys will be cold and chilly while the Pennsylvania boys will be used to this. Temple is excited to prove themselves against a marquee team. These factors will have the Owls keeping it closer than the big talent difference.

PHIL’S FORECAST: UCLA 24 TEMPLE 19

Champs Sports Bowl

Wisconsin vs Miami

Last year Wisconsin was in this bowl game and got it handed to them by Florida St 42-13. Miami is similar to that FSU team and may be even better. The Hurricanes were hit hard by injuries this year with their DL and secondary hit especially hard. Perhaps their top defensive player LB Sean Spence only started 7 games due to injuries and now is back healthy for this game. Miami has a solid rush defense to take on the Badgers strength of running the ball. While I expect the Big Ten to do unusually well this bowl season, this is the classic size vs speed matchup with Miami having good size to go along with their speed and look for them to hand Wisconsin a tough bowl loss.

PHIL’S FORECAST: MIAMI 36 WISCONSIN 21

Conference Bowl Standings

The MWC is off to a great start with a 3-0 record thanks to Wyoming’s upset over Fresno St in the New Mexico Bowl and two big wins over the Pac-10 the last week. The Big East has picked up a couple of wins including Pittsburgh’s win over North Carolina on Saturday. The SEC got its first victory of the bowl season last night with Georgia pulling away from Texas A&M 44-20. CUSA after starting 0-2 has won their last two including SMU’s impressive win over Nevada in the Hawaii Bowl. The PAC 10 and ACC picked up victories over the weekend while The Big 12 lost its only bowl game so far. The Big 10 conference has yet to play a bowl game this season but that will change tonight when Wisconsin plays Miami in the Champs Sports Bowl.

Bowl Confidence Contest

Make sure to check the daily blog every day as we will be posting the standings here after every bowl game is played.

There will be two Top 50 leaderboards. The first one will be points won and the second is best win percentage of their points. Sometimes the early leaders are the ones that risked the most on the early bowls and they fall by the wayside as the contest goes on so that is why I will also keep track of those that have the best win percentage.

After 11 bowl games William Meleski continues to lead the contest for the sixth day in a row with 233 points won and an 81% win %. William extended his lead from 19 to 28 points yesterday with Georgia winning. Jeff Hamilton jumped up to #2 and Gene Winters who led the contest after the first few days moved up to #3. Dan Maurer is the new leader in win % with 123 points won and just 18 points lost (87%) which is only a half of a percentage point better than Gary Magnus.

After some early tough losses, I now have 129 points and there are still 23 bowl games left! Remember 1st place wins $250, 2nd place gets $100 and a set of regionals and 3rd gets $50 and a set of regionals.

Thanks again to all that have entered. If you have any problems with your points or do not see your name please email Brandon@philsteele.com. Here are the current leaderboards.

The Top 50 in Points Won

The Top 50 in Win %

Navy QB Dobbs has a small crack in his kneecap from a prior inj in HS that will have to be repaired, but he is hoping to play thru the injury and have it fixed after the season….

Michigan’s Rich Brooks isn’t hiding his quarterback decision this week.  He’s said true frosh Morgan Newton will start….

S Carolina is looking to avenge last year’s loss to Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt is coming off a 34-10 loss to Georgia and South Carolina’s 20-6 loss at Alabama….

Tennessee asked for and received permission from the SEC to wear orange jerseys but Alabama rejected the request….

Vanderbilt could be without both of their starting OT’s, RT James Williams suffered a season-ending broken ankle and  LT Thomas Welch has a sprained ankle….

If LSU can win out, it will make it to the SEC Championship Game….

Houston Nutt thinks Ole Miss can still make it to the SEC Championship Game. If they lose this game, not only will that dream be gone, but so might the dream of a New Year’s Day bowl…..

Both Irish losses this season have come vs true frosh QB’s….

Penn St has scored just 69 pts in their 5 game losing streak in Ann Arbor. Paterno on Michigan Stadium: “I don’t think it’s a particularly tough place to play.” ….

Indiana hasn’t won in Evanston in 16 years, and the Hoosiers haven’t won back-to-back Big Ten games in October since the 2006 season….

The second straight road game for the Hawkeyes, who have won seven of the last 11 meetings in this series….

Michigan State has won three straight in the Big Ten after starting the season 1-3….

The Buckeyes have won the last six meetings vs Minnesota….

Pittsburgh is trying to go 7-1 for the first time since 1982, when Dan Marino was the QB. To do that, Wannstedt said the Panthers must contain Daniels….

“It was refreshing to get back,” USF coach Leavitt said. “We practiced hard and we’ll put this behind us. I like the way we practiced and we’ll be ready for Pittsburgh.” Leavitt is 59-46 on television, including 11-1 on ESPN Regional, and 2-3 in weather 50 degrees or lower….

West Virginia will honor Connecticut CB Jasper Howard with #6 on their helmets and the 2 teams will have a moment of silence at midfield. Stewart said the gameplan will not change with Smith at QB, Smith did miss 6-8 weeks from June 10 with foot injury. “This is all about Jasper Howard, about having a fallen brother, about his successful and youthful life.” — WVU Coach Bill Stewart….

Connecticut HC Edsall said one of my sons was taken away, nothing in my job description says i have to identify bodies. Edsall not prepared with how to deal with the death, spoke to USF Leavitt who has had 3 players death since 2001…

Cincinnati’s # 5 ranking in the BCS standings is the highest for a Big East team since West Virginia was ranked #2 on Nov. 25, 2007….

Louisville had won five consecutive games in the series before Cincinnati 28-20 victory last year….

Questions have risen if Cincinnati runs the table, should they be held out of title game. Kelly says if our name was WV, Syracuse or Pitt we wouldn’t be having this conversation….

After a 2-2 start, Syracuse can be found in the conference cellar…

All but guaranteed a losing season, Akron HC Brookhart will not take the RS off anymore players…

Toledo takes on  Temple, the first MAC meeting and Temple, looking for their fifth straight victory and another step toward its first bowl game in 30 years, come in as a 3 pt dog….

Central Michigan’s Dan LeFevour and Bowling Green’s Tyler Sheehan have thrown for over 4,800 yards with 28 TD’s already this season and rushed for 12 scores….

Buffalo is looking for its first ever win over Western Michigan. The Bulls are 0-4 all time against the Broncos….

Kent State can move into a 1st place tie in the MAC East with a win if Buffalo loses to Toledo….

The RedHawks are home for only the second time this year and have been outscored 248-71 in dropping the first seven games….

Central Michigan has trouble winning at Bowling Green, losing 8 of their last 9 games at Doyt Perry Stadium….

Western Michigan lost its top two WR’s in the game against Central Michigan. Juan Nunez and Jordan White both suffered sprained ankles and are questionable….

The Eagles have won the last six meetings vs Notre Dame….

Georgia Tech has lost eight straight times in Charlottesville….

This is the first time Maryland has faced Duke since 2004, and the first time the teams have met since the ACC expanded to 12 teams before the 2005 season…..

Miami and Clemson have met twice since UM joined the ACC, with CU winning in Miami in overtime in 2004 and UM returning the favor in triple overtime in 2005….

Baylor needs to get a jump on a ranked team playing on the road in the homecoming game at Waco. A slow start by the home team would likely mean disaster….

This is the Sooners’ first since 2001 to Memorial Stadium….

Historically, Colorado has dominated this series vs Kansas St 44-19-1, but the teams have split the last 6 games. CU’s last win in Manhattan came in 2005, 23-20….

A Big 12 North Title is still very much in Nebraska’s picture, but the Huskers can’t stumble at home against the Cyclones….

Without QB Robert Griffin, Baylor stands 0-2 in the Big 12 after allowing Iowa State to snap an 11-game losing streak….

The Longhorns have won the last five meetings by an average of 23.4 points, including a 56-31 romp last season vs Missouri….

Texas Tech has not lost at home against Texas A&M since 1993….

Arizona QB Foles set a program mark with his completion % last week vs Stanford as he hit on 40 of 51 passes (78%). He has completed 76% of his passes this year, no other Arizona QB has finished higher than 69% for a season….