Well here it is, my projected AP Top 10 for next year as of January 30, 2012! I will mention it now and I will mention it numerous times throughout today’s blog but this is not MY preseason Top 10 for next year, it is where I project the AP Top 10 to come out at the start of the season.

Most AP voters usually look at a couple of criteria when they evaluate a team for the upcoming season. First they look at the number of returning starters that the team has coming back particularly at the offensive skill positions. A team that returns its starting QB and a combination of its RB and WR’s is often times more highly thought of than a team that loses its starting QB but returns its entire offensive line. Similarly a team that returns most of its starters on offense but loses a lot of its defensive playmakers usually is more highly thought of than a team that returns a majority of its defensive starters but loses its skill position players on offense.

Another factor that is heavily weighted is the performance of the team in the bowl game, which undoubtedly is the lasting image of that team in the offseason. A team coming off a huge bowl win usually is more highly thought of than a team that is coming off a bowl loss regardless of what their schedule looks like for the upcoming season.

Using these criteria and a few more, I project the preseason AP Top 10 every year at the conclusion of the previous season, which in most cases is nearly 6 months in advance. Now as you all know, a lot can happen from January to August including injuries, suspensions, transfers, etc.

In 2009, my projected Top 10 for the AP Poll was #1 Florida, #2 Texas, #3 USC, #4 Oklahoma, #5 Alabama, #6 Virginia Tech, #7 LSU, #8 Oklahoma St, #9 Ohio St and #10 Mississippi. The actual AP Top 10 was #1 Florida, #2 Texas, #3 Oklahoma, #4 USC, #5 Alabama, #6 Ohio St, #7 Virginia Tech, #8 Mississippi and #9 was a tie between Oklahoma St/Penn St.

I nailed nine of the ten teams that appeared in the Preseason Top 10 with the only exception being LSU/Penn St and I may have had something to do with that. It’s interesting to note that of the main preseason magazines, only two had Penn St ranked in the Top 10 and I had them my #1 surprise team and ranked #5. Most had Penn St out of the Top 10. Perhaps since I had them rated so high in my magazine, it influenced a few voters across the country, bumping them into the Top 10.

In 2010 I projected the preseason AP Top 10 would be #1 Alabama, #2 Ohio St, #3 Boise St, #4 Oregon, #5 Texas, #6 TCU, #7 Iowa, #8 Florida, #9 Nebraska and #10 Virginia Tech.

The actual AP Top 10 was #1 Alabama, #2 Ohio St, #3 Boise St, #4 Florida, #5 Texas, #6 TCU, #7 Oklahoma, #8 Nebraska, #9 Iowa and #10 Virginia Tech.

For the second year in a row I nailed nine of the ten teams that appeared in the Preseason Top 10 with the only exception being Oregon/Oklahoma, which I can defend easily.

First, at the time I wrote my projection back in early February Duck QB Jeremiah Masoli was not yet suspended. With Masoli still in the fold at that point Oregon had 17 returning starters including RB LaMichael James and Masoli in the backfield. The Ducks clearly would have been a preseason Top 10 team and probably Top 5 had Masoli not been kicked off the team. Even without Masoli Oregon was still rated #11 in the preseason poll.

The team that I did not have in my projected AP Top 10 was Oklahoma (#7) and if you have purchased the 2010 magazine or listened to one of my radio shows across the country you know I thought very highly of the Sooners as I had them ranked #1. Like Penn St in 2009 perhaps since I had them rated so high in my magazine, it influenced a few voters across the country, bumping them into the Top 10 despite the Sooners having five losses in 2009 and the fact that they did not even finish in the final AP Top 25.

I also am pleased that six of the 10 teams were ranked in the exact position that I projected including the Top 3 in Alabama, Ohio St and Boise St. I also had Texas, TCU and Virginia Tech ranked in their exact positions in the poll.

Last year I projected the preseason AP Top 10 would be #1 Oklahoma, #2 Alabama, #3 Oregon, #4 LSU, #5 Stanford, #6 Texas A&M, #7 Boise St, #8 Florida St, #9 Oklahoma St and #10 South Carolina.

The actual AP Top 10 was #1 Oklahoma, #2 Alabama, #3 Oregon, #4 LSU, #5 Boise St, #6 Florida St, #7 Stanford, #8 Texas A&M, #9 Oklahoma St and #10 Nebraska.

For the third year in a row I nailed nine of the ten teams that appeared in the Preseason Top 10 with the only exception being South Carolina/Nebraska, which I can defend easily.

First, when I released my projection back in February of last year South Carolina QB Stephen Garcia was still on the team and was not suspended which would end up costing him the spring and summer with the team. With Garcia’s status up in the air at the time of the AP ballots being due in late July and early August, South Carolina was dropped a bit giving way to Nebraska. The Cornhuskers meanwhile were my pick to win the Big Ten in last year’s magazine which probably influenced a few voters as well.

Now let’s take a look at this year’s projected Preseason AP Top 10:

***#10 West Virginia-The Mountaineers get the nod here due to a dominating 70-33 Orange bowl win over Clemson. This year WVU returns 14 starters including QB Geno Smith who should be more comfortable in his 2^nd-year of Dana Holgorsen’s offense. The asterisk is put on them because at the time of this projection it is not sure whether the Mountaineers will play in the Big East or the Big 12 for 2012. If they remain in the Big East they will be the clear-cut favorites with an easier schedule but if they are joining the Big 12 for 2012, their schedule will be tougher and I would project South Carolina for the #10 spot.

 #9 Arkansas-The Razorbacks have had their most successful B2B seasons since 1988-89 going 22-5 the last two years. This year they return 13 starters including QB Tyler Wilson and will get back 2010 All-SEC RB Knile Davis who was out all of last season with an ankle injury. Last year the Razorbacks lost only two games to the top 2 teams in LSU and Alabama (both on the road) and this year the Crimson Tide and Tigers have to travel to Arkansas.

#8 Florida St-The Seminoles were a darkhorse pick for the National Title last year but an injury to QB Manuel saw the Noles drop to 2-3 at one point in the season. FSU would respond to win 7 of its last 8 games including wins over Florida and Notre Dame in the bowl to cap off the season and this year they return 15 starters including QB Manuel and defensive stars DL Jenkins and DB Reid. FSU looks to also bring in one of the best frosh classes in the country and should clearly be the favorites in the ACC.

#7 Michigan-The Wolverines were one of the biggest surprises in college football last year winning 11 games and a BCS Bowl under first-year HC Brady Hoke. This year they return 7 starters on offense led by QB Denard Robinson and RB Toussaint who should be more comfortable in the 2^nd-year of the new offense. UM also return 7 starters from a defense that allowed just 17.4 ppg (#6) which was nearly an 18 ppg improvement from 2010! Michigan finished #12 in the final AP poll and figure to be the favorites to win the Big Ten this year.

#6 Georgia-I was one of the few people in the country last year to pick Georgia to win the SEC East over South Carolina thanks to a favorable SEC slate that had them avoiding Arkansas, LSU and Alabama out of the West and the Bulldogs would not disappoint taking home the SEC East crown. This year they return 15 starters including QB Aaron Murray, leading rusher Isaiah Crowell, their top 2 rec’s and a 1^st-Team All-American candidate on D in OLB Jarvis Jones. Again the Bulldogs AVOID LSU, Alabama and Arkansas out of the SEC West and will be the favorites to repeat as SEC East Champs.

#5 Oklahoma-The Sooners were the preseason AP #1 team last year and clearly underachieved losing three games including a 44-10 beatdown in Bedlam. They did win their bowl game over Iowa, return 15 starters including QB Landry Jones who will play better than last year’s finish and HC Bob Stoops and the Sooners have won at least 10 games in a season 10 times since 2000!

#4 Oregon-The Ducks have become a fixture among the nation’s elite under HC Chip Kelly with 3 straight BCS appearances and last year captured their first Rose Bowl win since 1916! While QB Darron Thomas and RB LaMichael James are gone, their replacements are plenty capable as QB Bryan Bennett and RB’s Kenjon Barner and De’Anthony Thomas return with some valuable game experience and the Ducks do not open with a marquee non-conference game like they did last year vs LSU.

#3 Alabama-The Crimson Tide were my pick to win the National Title last year and they did just that avenging an earlier loss to LSU by dominating the Tigers in the BCS Championship game 21-0. This year the defending champs return 7 starters on offense led by QB AJ McCarron who played magnificently in the title game. While the defense returns only 4 starters from last year, keep in mind in 2010, the Tide returned only 2 defensive starters and were the Preseason AP #1 team!

#2 USC-Last year while the probation-stricken Trojans were not eligible to play in the Pac-12 title game, I picked them to be the best team in the South and clearly they were just that going 10-2 (7-2) beating their crosstown rival Bruins who were the de facto Pac-12 South Champs 50-0 in the regular season finale! The Trojans locked up their spot here with the surprising return of QB Matt Barkley who is clearly one of the Heisman favorites in 2012. He will have plenty of skill position talent surrounding him with his top 2 WR’s Robert Woods and Marqise Lee back and 1,000 yd rusher Curtis McNeal also returning.  A case could be made at the end of last season that no team in the country was hotter than USC winning 7 of their last 8 games with a 3OT loss to Stanford their only blemish. With 15 returning starters, the Trojans clearly will be one of the favorites to take home the crystal ball.

#1 LSU-Last year LSU was picked 2^nd in the SEC West behind Alabama and would go on to have arguably the best regular season in school history going 13-0 winning the SEC Championship and would beat EIGHT Top 25 teams! While the National Title loss to Alabama still stings, many of the Tigers’ star players return for 2012 including Heisman candidate DB Tyrann Mathieu along with their their top 4 rushers. Throw in QB Zach Mettenberger who Miles said last year was his best pure passing QB and a home game vs Alabama and the Tigers will be the favorites to win the National Title!

JUST MISSED OUT:

I mentioned at the start of the blog that last year I had nine of the top 10 teams correctly predicted and it was the same case in 2009 and 2010 where I also missed out by 1. If one of the team’s I have projected in the Top 10 doesn’t make the polls, there are some teams that have a shot at jumping into the Top 10.

This year I believe there is just one team with a shot and it is #11 South Carolina who could jump the Mountaineers depending on what conference WVU will be in for 2012. Also putting the Gamecocks here is the fact that if they are in the Top 10 that would mean 5 of those teams would be from the SEC. The Gamecocks do return 13 starters including QB Connor Shaw and get back RB Marcus Lattimore who missed the last six games with a knee injury. They also get last year’s SEC East winner Georgia at home.

There you have it – My projections for the AP Preseason Top 10. As mentioned a couple of times in this article, these WILL NOT BE THE TOP 10 IN MY MAGAZINE. As you know, I tend to go out on a limb in a lot of cases and have a lot of surprise picks in my magazine. Those will be unveiled at the start of June when my magazine hits the newsstands but when the first AP poll comes out in August this year, go ahead and take this list and compare it and you’ll find that probably 9 or maybe even all 10 will be in the Preseason AP Top 10 this year.

The AP Poll was released over the weekend and today I can officially come up with Overrated and Underrated teams for the upcoming year.

First, here is the Preseason AP Top 25.

Overrated Teams

#23 Auburn-There are several signs pointing downward for last year’s defending champ. This year they lose the best offensive player in the NCAA in Heisman winner QB Cam Newton as well as arguably the best defensive player in DT Nick Fairley. Auburn also benefited from an amazing 7 net close wins and naturally the schedule gets tougher with road games vs Clemson, South Carolina, Arkansas, LSU and Georgia. They lose an incredible 31 lettermen and return just 6 starters (fewest in the country). Last year I had Texas as my #1 overrated team (preseason AP #5) and they went from the National Title game to 5-7 and Auburn will have to have some talented youngsters grow up quickly to avoid a similar fate

#22 Florida-After an 8-5 season (NR) former head coach Meyer stepped down due to health concerns and they bring a new HC in Muschamp who has no previous HC experience and just 10 returning starters. The Gators have just 3 SEC HG’s and play South Carolina and UGA away from home and pull the top two teams (Bama and LSU) out of the West. I think UF may have a tough time topping last year’s 8 wins and will not finish in the AP Top 25 at the end of the year.

#9 Oklahoma St-Last year I took a lot of flack for picking the Cowboys last in the Big 12 South but nearly every magazine picked them 5th or 6th as they were one of the more inexperienced teams in the country. Naturally they went on to a great season with their first 11-win season in school history. This year they return 2 of their 3 “triplets” in Weeden and Blackmon but OSU loses OC Holgorsen and RB Hunter from an off avg 44.2 ppg, which was their best since 1988. OSU was also +12 in TO’s, has five Big 12 away games (incl at Texas A&M, Texas, Missouri, and Texas Tech) and only had 2 starts lost to injury last year. They do get Oklahoma at home again this year but were outgained by 209 yds to the Sooners last year. There is no question that the Cowboys are very talented but because of having such a tough B12 schedule I do not have them in my Top 15.

#7 Stanford-Last year was a dream season for the Cardinal as they had the 2nd highest AP Poll finish (#4) in school history. This year they do return QB Andrew Luck who is clearly the #1 player for next year’s draft but do lose their top 2 WR’s, 3 starting OL and 4 starters from their defensive front 7. They have just 11 returning starters and go from the battled tested coaching legacy of Harbaugh to a 1st-yr HC. While two of my 9 sets of power ratings call for an unbeaten year, with the loss of their HC and finishing up with USC, Oregon St, Oregon, California and Notre Dame all in a row, they will not match LY’s 12 win total and will finish outside the Top 10.

Underrated Teams

#13 Virginia Tech-The Hokies are not dominant but remind me of LY’s Auburn team in terms of schedule. VT should be favored in all 6 road games and get its toughest opponents at home (like eventual National Champ Auburn who had 4 of its 5 toughest at home). At 6-6 245 with a powerful arm and great mobility which sound a little like Cam Newton, QB Logan Thomas could be a breakout player this year. Finally despite ranking only #15 in my Power Poll, 8 of my 9 sets of power ratings calls for a 12-0 regular season!

#16 Notre Dame-Yes I know the Fighting Irish are probably the most underachieving team in the last 20 years but many signs are pointing upwards this year. HC Kelly who has a history of exceeding my expectations (6 of L/7 years) has a veteran squad with 17 returning starters that are now in the 2nd year of his schemes. While they do not have any cupcakes on the schedule they also have no teams in my Preseason Top 15. They could be favored in their first 11 games and remember Bob Stoops, Jim Tressel, Urban Meyer and Gene Chizik all won national titles in their 2nd years. All 9 sets of my power ratings call for double digit wins with 3 of them calling for a 12-0 season!

#19 Georgia-This is a must-win season for HC Mark Richt as he is definitely on the hot seat. The Bulldogs did have 4 net close losses last year and have signed some key newcomers in RB Isaiah Crowell and NT Jonathan Jenkins who should have a huge impact. The Bulldogs avoid the top 3 teams in the SEC West plus get South Carolina at home. UGA is one of my Most Improved Teams and is my upset pick to win the SEC East.

#25 USC-The Trojans were hit hard by the NCAA LY with a loss of scholarships and no bowls for 2 years. I expected them to be thin but Kiffin found some loopholes and was able to sign 31 players this year and will field a very talented team that can win the Pac-12 South (just not play in the title game). QB Barkley pilots a potent offense and Kiffin Sr will have a much improved D.

Texas-Mack Brown had led UNC and UT to winning records for 20 str years, the longest active streak of any FBS coach but last year they stunningly plummeted to 5-7. I think Mack Brown has made some great hires at coordinator and keep in mind that UT was -12 in TO’s LY. In ’07 QB Colt McCoy threw 18 int’s but he was much better as a Jr and they will get much better QB play this year after 17 int’s by a soph QB LY. The Horns  finally have a featured RB in true frosh Brown and UT will have a much better year than most expect.

Southern Miss-The Golden Eagles have had 17 consecutive winning seasons, which is the 4th longest active streak among FBS schools. LY they were +94.1 ypg in CUSA play (#1) and were just 8 pts away from a perfect 8-0 CUSA record and a 11-1 regular season mark. This year none of my 9 sets of power ratings call them #1 in the CUSA but almost all have them #2 and they have a schedule that sets up perfect with winnable road games and all the toughest games are at “The Rock”. Four of my 9 sets of power ratings call for a 12-0 record.

Houston-LY UH was the preseason favorite to win CUSA led by QB Case Keenum. UH put up 122 pts in the first 2 but then Keenum was inj’d and OFY in their loss to UCLA. Keenum was granted a 6th year and college football will benefit from that. His return has me very excited for this year’s squad and 8 of my 9 sets of power ratings call for a double digit win season which will at least double LY’s 5 win total! Three of the 9 call for them to be 11-0 when they travel to Tulsa!

USF-Skip Holtz was very successful at East Carolina including B2B CUSA Titles. This year the Bulls are a very talented team and only lose 15 lettermen (fewest in Big East). Two of my 9 sets of power ratings call for 11 wins, and I will call for them to top last year’s 8 win total.

Ohio-This year the Bobcats return just 11 starters but have a schedule that is tailor made for MAC success. Their 4 MAC away games are vs teams that finished 1-7, 1-7, 1-7 and 2-6 and they are only one of the top 4 MAC East teams that kept their HC. They avoid the Big 3 out of the MAC West (UT, NIU and WM) and I give them an excellent shot at their first double digit win season since 1968.

Clemson-Last year the Tigers had their first losing season since 1998 and this year Dabo Swinney is on the hot seat. They do return 14 starters and bring in a great recruiting class with adding the best set of true frosh LB’s in the country. They did have 4 net close losses last year and do get a key division game vs Florida St (Noles off Oklahoma) at home. Clemson makes my Most Improved list and will easily top LY’s win total.

Only 10 Days Until The First College Football Game!!!

1. Matt Barkley threw for 252 yds and a school record tying 5 TD’s. USC flat out dominated Cal with 32-10 FD and 602-245 yd edges. In fact, they led 45-0 before Cal got a couple of garbage TD’s. USC’s D had given up 69 pts the previous 2 games but had a 372-65 yd edge at the half with a 20-3 FD edge in their dominating win.

2. The Sooners were much sharper after a bye week and put forth one of their best performances of the season as they had an incredible 41-10 FD and 667-192 yd edges as they rolled Iowa St 52-0 and are ranked #1 in the first BCS poll.

3. Georgia dominated Vanderbilt just as the 43-0 score indicates. They just missed the largest MOV in series history which had been 45-0 in 1976. UGA missed a 31 yd FG with 10:54 left which would have given them that margin. The Bulldogs also had 2 TD’s overturned by replay. UGA finished with 22-8 FD and 547-140 yd edges.

4. Wisconsin got their first victory over a #1 team since 1981 with an impressive 31-18 win over Ohio St and RB Clay became the first RB to top 100 yds against the Buckeyes defense in 29 games.

5. Boise St continues to dominate teams as they try to impress the voters each and every week. On Saturday they rolled up a 529-93 yd edge in the 48-0 win over San Jose St.

6. Michigan St was playing their 3rd big game in 3 weeks after having knocked off Top 10 Wisconsin and undefeated 5-0 Michigan but Illinois was also on their 2nd straight road game after pulling a road upset vs Penn St. Illinois led 6-3 at the half but UI was int’d to open the 3Q and MSU lost 1 yd and got a 34 yd FG but MSU then went 77/4pl for a TD, 68/10pl for a 32 yd FG, 45/9pl for an 18 yd FG then after an int, 53/8pl for a TD to wrap it up, 26-6.

7. Texas led 17-3 at the half with a 175-107 yd edge. It was 20-3 when backup Lee led Nebraska 83/16pl for a 28 yd FG to make it 20-6. Lee led NU on a 12pl drive and they had a likely TD pass dropped at the 4 on 4&18. NU got a 95 yd PR TD on a pooch punt to make it 20-13 and UT rec’d the onside kick at the NU42, got 2 FD’s and ran out the clock. UT came in unranked for the first time since 2000 and NU was #5 in the country but UT allowed QB Gilbert to run the ball and he had 72 yards rushing.

8. Oklahoma St got their first victory in Lubbock since 1944, a span of 66 years. OSU WR Justin Blackmon had a career high 207 yards rec. OSU led 14-0 and TT did not get their first FD until their fourth drive. OSU finished with 30-20 FD and 581-401 yd edges.

9. Missouri dominated Texas A&M much like the score indicates. While A&M had 9 TO’s the previous 2 games, they did not have any and the offense was inept in the 1H with just 113 yards as Missouri had a 267-113 yd edge. Missouri led 16-0 at the half and extended it to 30-3 before A&M got a TD with 8:37 left. A&M gained 58 yds on 10pl before being SOD at the MO13 with 3:22 left. It was the first time since 1967 that MO held a conf foe scoreless for 6 straight quarters.

10. In the 1H TCU had a 223-13 yd edge but it was just 3-0 with 2:00 left 1H. TCU, after a 17 yd PR went 46/2pl for a TD with 1:35 left and then after an int, went 38/3pl for a TD with :26 left to lead 17-0. BYU was SOD at their own 47 but then on their third 3Q poss went 70/14pl when they got a 27 yd FG it meant BYU’s streak of 201 straight away games with scoring (dates back to the 70’s) was kept in tact. It also ended TCU’s shutout streak at 174:00. TCU got a TD with 1:03 left then after a 26 yd punt went 51/9pl and on 4&3 got a 21 yd TD pass with 4:24 left and they ended the game at the BYU27.

From 2005-’08 I published an article titled Coaching Changes in my College Football Preview magazine. Each year I try to make the magazine a little bit bigger and a little bit better but we’re capped out at 328 pages so Coaching Changes does not appear in my 2010 magazine. We have had a lot of requests for this article and since the website has an unlimited amount of room, PhilSteele.com is a great vehicle to continue publishing this article and I will do so each year.

COACHING CHANGES BY PHIL STEELE

There is something to be said for coaching stability as it usually takes a couple of years for a new head coach to get a program going. They usually have their best success when they have a team full of their own recruits and their offensive and defensive systems have been in place for a couple of years. The first few years can be rough on a new head coach as they inherit players who now have to learn new schemes on both offense and defense and he has to learn the players strengths and weaknesses. Pete Carroll won two straight National Titles but in his first year the Trojans opened up at 2-5 and finished at just 6-6 after the bowl. Tommy Tuberville’s first team at Auburn was just 5-6 but in his 6th season they were a perfect 13-0. Nick Saban’s first LSU team started off 3-3 and finished 8-4 but in his 4th year they won a share of the National Title. In Bob Stoops’ first year at Oklahoma, the Sooners were just 7-5, including a bowl loss to Mississippi. Since then, they have won a National Title and played in six Big 12 Championship games. Les Miles went 4-7 in his first year at Oklahoma St followed by 3 winning years. Jim Tressel was just 7-5 his first year but won a National Title in his second. Kirk Ferentz was a combined 4-19 his first two seasons but the Hawkeyes have now been to six Jan bowls. Pat Hill’s first two Fresno St teams went a combined 11-12 but since then have had 10 winning years. Finally Woody Hayes won just 4 games in his first season at Ohio St.

The reason I bring up these examples is twofold: first it shows that Athletic Directors should have a little more patience before firing a head coach for a losing season. Secondly, I wanted to point out that there are individual unit rankings in the lower right hand corner on each of the conference pages. You will notice that I have FIRST year coaching staffs graded lower than you would normally expect.

What sparked this article a few years back was Ole Miss’ dumping of David Cutcliffe just one year after the Rebels shared the SEC West Title with LSU. They were the only team that had been bowl eligible 7 straight years prior to that rare losing season. Then after the firing, from 2005-2007, the Rebels went just 3-21 in SEC play.

SLOW STARTERS

Let me go over some programs that stuck with coaches for much longer than expected, through many losing seasons but have ultimately been rewarded. The best example is Virginia Tech. Frank Beamer had successive years of 2-9, 3-8, 6-4-1, 6-5, 6-5, 5-6 and 2-8-1 to start his tenure. Amazingly, Virginia Tech stuck with him. Can you imagine another program that would stick with a head coach through a streak like that? Beamer has done an amazing job building his program including having one of the best strength training programs in the country. They are now a National Title contender on a yearly basis and simply won the ACC Title in their inaugural year in the conference despite being picked 7th in the preseason ACC poll. Joe Novak started out 1-10, 0-11, 2-9 and 5-6 his first 4 years at Northern Illinois and once again, they opted to stick with him and were rewarded with 7 consecutive winning seasons from 2000-’06. Darrell Dickey was DONE at North Texas. His first 3 teams went 3-8, 2-9 and 3-8 and in 2001 they opened the season 0-5. Their AD was under HEAVY pressure to get rid of Dickey not just at the end of the season but RIGHT THEN so they could have some hope. They rebounded to win an amazing 26 consecutive SBC games (including the final 5 in 2001)! They went to four bowls with 4 league titles. Will NT stick with 4th year HC Dodge (5-31 in ’07-’09) if he starts out like Dickey? Navy’s Paul Johnson went 2-10 in his first year but the Mids went to five straight bowls winning 8, 10, 8, 9 and 8 games in those seasons. Rocky Long inherited a New Mexico team that went 9-4 in Dennis Franchione’s last season and his first squad went just 3-9. Two more losing seasons followed but they stuck with him and the team had 7 consecutive years of bowl eligibility. When Barry Alvarez took over at Wisconsin, he went 1-10 in his first year and followed that up with two more losing seasons. The Badgers simply went to 11 bowl games in his tenure and he retired with an amazing three Rose Bowl wins under his belt. Dan McCarney of Iowa St had his team go 3-8, 2-9, 1-10, 3-8 and 4-7 his first FIVE years. Can you imagine an AD in today’s climate sticking with this guy? The Cyclones then went to 5 bowl games in McCarney’s last 7 years from 2000-’06. Then the new AD let McCarney go and they have went just 12-25 since! Bill Snyder went 1-10 at Kansas St in his first year and had 3 losing seasons his first 4 years but they stuck with him and he rewarded them with 11 straight bowl appearances, making them a National Title contender. Kentucky fans weren’t too thrilled when Rich Brooks was hired in 2003 and he inherited a team that had just 68 scholarship players. The Brooks era began with 3 losing seasons (9-25) but he rebounded to lead Kentucky to four straight bowl berths in the tough SEC. As you can see, sometimes patience is a virtue.

BAYLORED

OK let’s take a look at the Baylor situation. Constant head coaching changes are a bad thing. The coach inherits another coach’s recruits and many times they not only don’t fit his system but they signed with the school because of the other coaching staff. Many times personality or disciplinary conflicts arise and many players leave a program after the coaching change, leaving a team short on scholarships. I call this section “Baylored” because that school provides the most prominent example of how constant head coaching changes can hurt a program. Let’s go back to 1996. Baylor had 5 out of 6 winning years despite facing their tough SWC foes on a weekly basis. They were 7-5 in 1994 and 7-4 in 1995 and the amazing part was that HC Chuck Reedy was bringing in recruiting classes on par with teams like Texas and Texas A&M, even finishing ahead of the big boys some years! In this day and age a winning record for a Big 12 team would make them a perennial bowl team. In 1996 they had a nightmare season as the team was besieged by injuries and also dropped some close games like a 28-24 loss to Oklahoma, a 28-23 loss to Texas and a triple OT loss 49-42 to Missouri (those type of losses would look pretty good currently). They still finished 4-7 and clearly, if not for the injuries, could have had a winning season. Amazingly Baylor FIRED Coach Reedy! They have played THIRTEEN years of football since and have topped three wins in a season just 4 TIMES in that span (5 in ’05, 4 in ’06 and 4 the last two seasons)! First they brought in Dave Roberts in 1997 then after two losing seasons fired him! They brought in Kevin Steele and gave him 4 years before the axe fell. As mentioned with constant coaching changes, keeping the full complement of scholarship players has been a problem. Baylor has a record of 14-98 in the Big 12 and some years have been outgained by an avg of over 200 ypg in league play. Guy Morriss is the latest firing at Baylor as he had a 5-6 season in ’05 (4-1 start) and was given 5 years but continues the “Baylored” tradition.

FLIGHT DELAY

They do not run the option in the NFL so this category strictly applies to the college game. I have said many times over the last few years that it takes 3-4 years for an option team to successfully move to a pass offense. Why does such a switch take so long? A college team is basically built from 5 different recruiting classes with the classes from 3, 4 and 5 years ago being the most important. A college coach who runs an option offense can be very successful in the college game. To be a success he must be able to bring in big, powerful run blocking offensive linemen who are known more for power than pass blocking. His choice of WR’s is generally not made on the guy that will make the most catches but the one who may be the best downfield blocker. The QB’s in an option offense are valued more for their mobility than for their passing accuracy. When a coach comes in and tries to move to a pro style passing offense or a pure passing offense, he finds himself ill-equipped to do so. He needs fleet pass catching WR’s, QB’s who are known for their accurate passing and a solid pass blocking line. By the time a coach recruits those types of players and the starters spots are taken by those type of recruits, it is usually at least two years down the road and possibly 3 or 4. Two big name schools recently went through the switch and their struggles bear out what a difficult transition it can be.

Notre Dame was a run based attack under Lou Holtz with option style QB’s and continued in the same vein after his departure. When Ty Willingham took over he inherited a team that avg’d 102 ypg passing the previous year hitting 50% with a 4-11 ratio. The top 2 QB’s combined to throw for just 1,071 yards but had 893 gross yards rushing. While ND did win their first 8 games under Willingham, it was hardly due to offensive prowess. They had just 11 FD’s and 203 TOTAL yards on offense in a win over Purdue. Later they had 10 FD’s and 185 TOTAL yards on offense in a win vs Pitt. That offense averaged just 313 ypg with the QB’s hitting 50.4%. The next season they brought in a pure passing QB, Brady Quinn. Quinn however was a freshmen and the offense was just in its second year so he was not yet surrounded by the O-line and receivers which you need in a West Coast offense. He threw for 1,831 yards but only completed 47.3% with a 9-15 ratio. The third year of the offense showed solid improvement as you would expect. Quinn upped the totals to 2,586 yards passing, improved to 54.1% completions and had a 17-10 ratio. In 2005, with all 11 offensive starters back and in the 4th year of the switch, Charlie Weis stepped into a great situation and Quinn exploded with 3,919 yards passing (64.9%) with a 32-7 ratio. There were no Jeff Samardzija-types on the roster in Willingham’s first year but thanks to his recruiting, the team was much better equipped to run the pro offense under Weis. In 2006 with 3 solid receiving options, Quinn had 3,426 yards passing (61.9%) with a 37-7 ratio.

When Nebraska hired Bill Callahan he stunned the Husker faithful by announcing that he was ditching the option offense and converting to a pro style pass attack. Some said it was about time and thought he would have immediate success. The 2003 NU team was a solid 10-3. I did not make a lot of friends in Lincoln when the next year in my magazine I picked Iowa St, who had finished 2-10 the previous year to finish AHEAD of Nebraska in the Big 12 North! Joe Dailey threw for 2,025 yards which was the most at that school since Dave Humm way back in 1972. Unfortunately, he completed just 49.4% of his passes with a 17-19 ratio and the Huskers had their first losing season since 1961! Now, let’s not pin the whole thing on Dailey. He was recruited as an option QB and had OL’s in front of him that were recruited for run blocking who were just learning the pass blocking schemes. He also did not have a fleet of pass catching WR’s like most passing schools have. Callahan looked to speed up the system so he went the JUCO route (something ND did not do). He brought in PS#18JC QB Zac Taylor (no freshman QB growing pains), JC WR’s and OL’s. Despite bringing in JUCO’s, the offense did not take off right away. In the first two games vs IA foes in the 2nd year of the offense, they avg’d 104 ypg passing with just 45% completions. The unit got better as the season went on and Taylor threw for 392 yards generating 30 points vs Colorado in the season finale. For the season NU still completed just 53.8% and only increased their passing yards by 37 ypg. In 2006 they improved to 244 ypg passing and 59.4% completions and topped that in 2007 with 324 ypg pass (61.5%).

SOME TOUGH SHOES TO FILL

Following a legend is never easy. Vince Lombardi had an incredible run with the Green Bay Packers but after 4 straight NFL titles, stepped down. Phil Bengston was the unlucky guy who took over a team where anything less than an NFL title would be considered a weak season. Unfortunately he not only failed to bring home a championship but suffered 2 losing seasons in 3 years before being fired after going 6-8 in 1970. Ron Zook had the misfortune of being the guy who took over for Steve Spurrier at Florida. A few days after taking the job www.fireronzook.com got started and anything less than an undefeated season and National Title was construed as a failure. Here are a few other coaches that stepped into tough spots. Dennis Franchione left TCU after a great 10-2 season to take the job at Alabama. Gary Patterson unfortunately went 6-6 his first year but did flirt with an unbeaten season in 2003. At Ohio Jim Grobe had one of the best seasons at the school in recent memory in 2000 going 7-4 and contending for the MAC Title. He left for the ACC and Brian Knorr inherited raised expectations and was let go after 4 losing seasons. Tommy Bowden led Tulane to a 12-0 season in 1998 with 16 returning starters. He left for Clemson and Chris Scelfo inherited a rebuilding squad and had nowhere to go but down in his first year. They went just 3-8 but he did guide them to two winning seasons.

Some coaches have stepped into this type of tough situation and thrived. Urban Meyer led Utah to a super 12-0 season and left for Florida. His assistant Kyle Whittingham has guided the Utes to 5 winning seasons including a 13-0 #2 finish in 2008. Mike Price led Wash St to their first ever back-to-back 10-win seasons in the school’s history before bolting for Alabama. Longtime assistant Bill Doba took over and led them to ANOTHER 10-win season and a Holiday Bowl win over #5 Texas. Dirk Koetter left Boise St after a 10-2 season, their best ever, and while Dan Hawkins’ first squad “only” went 8-4, he did a remarkable job there going 45-7 in the next 4 years before moving on to Colorado. In 2006 Chris Petersen, who had been the longtime OC at Boise St, stepped in and as I forecasted in my 2006 magazine, took the team to a BCS bowl berth and an undefeated season after their win vs Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl.

RIGHT PLACE, RIGHT TIME

There are just some coaching openings that have early success written all over them. In 2004 for example I pointed out many times in the magazine that UTEP’s Mike Price was stepping into a great spot. Gary Nord took over at UTEP and guided the team to an 8-4 record and a rare bowl in his first year. He opted to build the program the right way by getting away from bringing in JUCO’s and he not only signed almost all freshmen but redshirted most of them, building the team’s depth. He suffered through 3 losing seasons but had put all of his eggs in the basket of the 2004 season, as he knew he would have success with a deep and veteran squad. Unfortunately they fired him so Mike Price took over a team that was -15 in turnovers the previous year and was just 2-11. When a new head coach comes into some early season success it gives a losing team new found confidence. They then buy into the new coach’s program more quickly. UTEP went on to their 1st back-to-back winning seasons since ’87-’88 and benefited thanks to Nord biting the bullet and taking those redshirts. Keith Burns was doing the same thing at Tulsa and also did not catch many breaks his last few years as his team was hit hard by injuries. His final team had just 9 seniors and naturally new head coach Steve Kragthorpe inherited a team with the most returning starters in the WAC (17). Some early season success had them more confident and the team rewarded the new guy going from 1-11 to 8-4 and a bowl berth. Urban Meyer took over a Utah team that was one of the most snakebitten teams in the NCAA in 2002. Between 2000-2002, Utah was among the MWC leaders in ypg vs conference foes and in 2000 and 2002 finished with losing seasons overall despite outgaining and outscoring their opponents on the year. In 2002 they had FIVE losses by 8 pts or less! The talent was there and when Meyer achieved some early season success, the team started gaining confidence and won those close games that had escaped his predecessor Ron McBride. Just two years later they were undefeated. There were 12 new coaches in 2005 and few success stories besides the heavily publicized hires of Charlie Weis, Florida’s Urban Meyer and LSU’s Les Miles. Bronco Mendenhall took over a snakebitten BYU team that had 3 close losses and outgained league foes by 54.6 ypg, 2nd best in the MWC in ’04, taking them to a bowl in ’05. Meanwhile, Bill Cubit of W Michigan, took a 1-10 team to a 7-4 record becoming bowl eligible.

TYPICAL 1ST YEAR HEAD COACH

When looking over the list of new coaches this year, I decided to add a new category to my repertoire titled “Typical 1st-Year Head Coach”. Typically when a HC takes over, there is a learning curve in the 1st year. The HC has to learn the player’s strengths and weaknesses and the players must learn new schemes on both sides of the ball. Generally with these circumstances, the team is not as experienced as they seem to be as many of the returning starters could lose their jobs under the new regime. These coaches in the near future will be achieving some success but the outlook in the first year is not as good.

Now let’s take a look at some of this year’s head coaching changes and I will put them into some of the categories listed above. Keep in mind many of this year’s new guys will go through the typical 1st years that I described previously.

2010 NEW COACHES

RIGHT PLACE RIGHT TIME:

The last 5 years I have had 34 coaches mentioned in this section. 27 of the 34 (79.4%) have improved their teams records (2 had same record). In 2006, Chris Petersen of Boise St took over a 9-4 team and guided them to a perfect 13-0 and a BCS bowl win. In 2007 Dennis Erickson took a 7-6 ASU squad to an 8-0 start and #6 in the country. In 2008, Houston Nutt took a 3-8 Ole Miss squad to a Cotton Bowl victory. Bo Pelini of Nebraska took over a 5-7 Husker squad and guided them to a tie for the Big 12 North Title. Coach Jerry Kill of Northern Illinois inherited a 2-10 squad and guided them to a bowl. Last year, I went a perfect 9 for 9 as every coach I listed guided their team to a better record. Gene Chizik took over a 5-7 Auburn team and led the Tigers to a 8-5 record including a New Year’s Day bowl win. Lane Kiffin also took over a 5-7 team and led the Volunteers to a 7-win regular season before departing for USC. Dabo Swinney inherited a 7-6 Clemson team and guided them to 9 wins and a division title as the Tigers made their first appearance in the ACC Title game. Steve Sarkisian did a great job at Washington in his first year as he took over a team that was just 0-12 in ’08 and led them to 5 wins. Also Bill Snyder in his second stint at Kansas St nearly led the Wildcats to a division title last year.

JIMBO FISHER, FLORIDA ST

Florida St has underachieved the last several years and unlike most new head coaches Fisher does not have to learn the players’ strengths and weaknesses as he has been the OC at FSU the past three seasons. I also feel that Fisher has taken away some of the game-day duties from coach Bowden the past couple of years and steps into a great situation as the team has not had double digit wins since ’03. The Seminoles are loaded on offense and get most of their toughest ACC foes at home as 7 of my 9 sets of power ratings call for a double digit win season!

BRIAN KELLY, NOTRE DAME

Kelly inherits a Notre Dame program that has vastly underachieved recently and even has a losing record the past 3 years. This year he inherits plenty of talent and Kelly always gets the most out of his players. While the defense gave up a school-record 398 ypg last year, 9 starters return and Kelly’s defense at Cincinnati performed admirably last year with just one returning starter. Kelly is the only coach in the history of the magazine to beat me six straight years and while he inherits an inexperienced QB, I would not worry too much as he led Cincinnati to a Big East title in ‘08 with FIVE different QBs!

SKIP HOLTZ, USF

There seems to be a recurring theme here as we are seeing coaches who get the most out of their talent inheriting underachieving programs. USF despite climbing into the AP Top 10 in two of the past three seasons tallied off late in the season and failed to finish in the Top 25. The Bulls were probably the most “athletically” talented team in the Big East the last three years while Holtz only had the 3rd or 4th most talented teams in CUSA the last couple of years but has two CUSA title rings on his fingers.

TURNER GILL, KANSAS

Personally I feel that last year’s team led by QB Todd Reesing and WRs Kerry Meier and Dezmon Briscoe is stronger than this year’s Kansas team. However, the Jayhawks caught Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech out of Big 12 South last year. This year they play none of those teams and have a much better schedule this year. Turner Gill did a great job at Buffalo and despite personnel wise being a little weaker this year, I think they have a great shot at bowl eligibility.

SONNY DYKES, LOUISIANA TECH

Derek Dooley did not leave the cupboard bare as he did a good job of recruiting and a good portion of the freshman were red shirted last year. The Bulldogs only lose 12 letterman from a 4-8 team that did not catch a lot of breaks last year with 3 net close losses. Despite their 3-5 record in conference play the Bulldogs were +27.9 ypg (4th best in WAC). All 9 of my sets call for bowl eligibility this year and an 8 or 9 win season is possible.

MIKE LONDON, VIRGINIA

Virginia did not catch a lot of breaks the last two years going just 8-16. Prior to ’08 the Cavaliers had been to 5 bowls in the previous 6 years, London steps into a good situation with the program having a newfound enthusiasm and will be favored in at least 3 games this year. While it will be tough playing in the brutal Coastal division with Miami, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and North Carolina plus drawing Florida St and Boston College from the Atlantic, Virginia has a solid shot at improving upon last year’s record.

WILLIE TAGGART, WKU

I like the job former HC David Elson did moving WKU from I-AA up to the FBS. The team really played its heart out for him last year but they suffered 3, 6 and 4-point losses blowing late leads in the last 3 games. This year Taggart inherits a team that returns 18 starters and while there won’t be a lot of wins on their platter this year, it only takes one to improve.

TYPICAL 1ST-YEAR HEAD COACH

CHARLIE STRONG, LOUISVILLE

I am very bullish on Charlie Strong at Louisville and I think it is a strong hire. Strong will bring lots of energy to a program that was 12-1 in ’06 but went just 15-21 under former HC Kragthorpe including just 5-16 in Big East play. This year the Cardinals have a tough schedule and return only 4 starters on defense. While I expect them to be more competitive on the field this year, they were -104 ypg in Big East play last year and return just 39% of their tackles (5th fewest in the NCAA). Strong will have them competing for a bowl game next year as they will be going up in the Big East standings, but this year they will have a tough time improving on last year’s 4-win total.

MIKE MACINTYRE, SAN JOSE ST

I got to speak to Coach MacIntyre this past off-season and came away very impressed. He has a plan to create his defense in the image of TCU but unfortunately has a depth-shy team and a lot of players will be playing different positions. The schedule is also brutal with Alabama, Wisconsin and Utah all coming on the road in the first four games. I think Dick Tomey did a great job leading San Jose St to 2 non-losing seasons in the last 4 years including a 9-4 finish in ’06 and I expect Coach MacIntyre to have the Spartan program on the upswing in the coming years after suffering a typical 1st-year HC season.

BOBBY HAUCK, UNLV

Hauck steps into a solid situation as UNLV could have been bowl-bound the last two years as they suffered some tough losses. Hauck had a solid record at Montana and inherits 15 returning starters this year but unfortunately the Rebels face a tough schedule (#25) and they will only be favored in a hand full of games. While the situation and head coach is solid, the Rebels could suffer a decrease in wins typical of a first-year head coach.

ROB IANELLO, AKRON

Former head coach JD Brookhart had two winning seasons his first two years before suffering four straight losing seasons and this year Ianello inherits only 13 returning starters. While Akron will have better fortune in TO’s and injuries this year, they must learn entirely new schemes and may not top last year’s win total.

LARRY PORTER, MEMPHIS

I got to speak to Coach Porter at the CUSA media days and came away very impressed, as he is a solid recruiter. He inherits a Memphis team that went just 2-10 last year after going to bowl games in five of the six previous years. While I think he will have the Tigers playing with a new enthusiasm this year, they do lose 25 letterman and face a brutal schedule, which has them facing the top four CUSA teams at home. There is a possibility that they could be an underdog in all 12 games this year. That does not mean they will lose all 12 but topping last year’s 2-win total will be tough.

DOC HOLLIDAY, MARSHALL

It’s about dang time Doc Holliday landed a head coaching job as it was talked about every off-season for several years and I think he will do a fine job at Marshall. However the Thundering Herd did win 7 games last year achieving their first winning season since 2003. They might find a difficult time topping that this year as Holliday has lost three of my projected starters so far this summer and may go thru the typical 1st-year struggles.

TOUGH SHOES TO FILL

The last 5 years I have had 17 coaches listed in this category. Three coaches in 2005 had their teams go from a combined 25-11 (69%) in 2004 to 15-19 (44%) in 2005. In 2007 four coaches were in the box and 3 had weaker records including Tim Brewster at Minnesota who took over a bowl squad and went 1-11. The one coach that improved his team’s record went from 10-3 to 11-3. In ‘08 I had 4 coaches listed in the box and of the 4 coaches, only one (Steve Fairchild, Colorado St) managed to improve his team’s record but keep in mind the Rams were coming off a 3-9 season.

BUTCH JONES, CINCINNATI

I’m a big fan of Butch Jones and I even mentioned him as being great possible hire for Cincinnati in my December 13 Blog before he was announced as head coach. But how do you top 12-0? How do you top back-to-back Big East titles and back-to-back BCS bowl games? There is no question he has some big shoes to fill but he has done it before at Central Michigan.

RUFFIN MCNEILL, EAST CAROLINA

I met Coach McNeill at the CUSA media days and was very impressed. I think he will stay at East Carolina for a long time and have good success. Unfortunately he takes over a team that was only the 3rd or 4th most talented in the conference but won a pair of CUSA titles the last two seasons.  They will struggle to match that success this year as he inherits a team that returns just 8 starters and loses 30 lettermen. East Carolina also returns just 38% of their tackles which is 2nd fewest in the country and were +11 in TO’s last year. While McNeill will have the Pirates in the near future atop the CUSA standings, they could go from back-to-back titles to a losing season this year.

JOKER PHILLIPS, KENTUCKY

Naturally the SEC is a super competitive conference and when former HC Rich Brooks was hired not a lot of fans were happy (see slow starters). After 3 losing seasons, Brooks rewarded their faith with spades as he led them to four straight bowls and an overall 30-22 record as the Wildcats have had 10 upsets in the last four years! This was quite an accomplishment at a school predominately known as a basketball power. While Phillips steps into a good situation, as he has been the coach-in-waiting and knows the current players, it will be tough to duplicate four straight bowls in the rugged SEC.

DAN ENOS, CENTRAL MICHIGAN

Enos inherits a program that has won 3 of the last 4 MAC Titles but this year the Chippewas lose record-setting QB LeFevour as well as WRs Brown and Anderson. Central is changing schemes on both sides of the ball and has only five home games this year. After all the success of the past four years, there is really only one way to go.

BAYLORED

In 2005 the whole reason for me to write this article was the ridiculous firing of coach Cutcliffe at Mississippi where he had done a GREAT job. I think it may be decades before you see Ole Miss bowl eligible for 5 straight years and go to 5 bowls in a 6-year stretch like they did under Cutcliffe. In 2007, I had Rice and Idaho listed here due to constant coaching changes. Idaho went from 4-8 to 1-11 and Rice went from a bowl game to 3-9. In ‘08 I put Southern Miss here as Larry Fedora had one of 5 teams in the NCAA that had 14 straight winning years. The Golden Eagles opened 2-6 and it appeared that a losing season was a given but rebounded to win their final 5 games of the year and match their 2007 record of 7-6. Last year I had Frank Spaziani here as the Eagles went from 11 wins in ’07 to 9 wins in ’08 and followed that up with 8 wins last year.

DEREK DOOLEY, TENNESSEE

Anytime a school has three head coaches in three years you are going to see a lot of attrition. At Tennessee, there have been 3 drastically different head coaches as several Fulmer recruited players left last year when Kiffin took over and this year several Kiffin recruited players have departed. The Volunteers could be under 70 scholarships this season and face a brutal schedule in which they will be a heavy underdog in six games. Tennessee will probably have to sweep November just to get to a bowl game and it will take a few years to reclaim their spot atop the SEC. While I think Dooley is a very good hire as he did a decent job at Louisiana Tech, topping last year’s 7 win total will probably not happen.

NO DESIGNATION

In 2007 I created this category. Some new coaches have conflicting things working for them and it is tough to toss them into any one category above. Of the six I tossed in this category in ‘08, three had miserable seasons for their schools (Texas A&M, UCLA, Washington St) and W Virginia was disappointing. Baylor and Georgia Tech, however, had more success than most thought they would. Last year I had 7 coaches here and like ’08, they had mixed results. Eastern Michigan, and Miami, Oh had miserable seasons while Iowa St and Wyoming had better seasons than expected.

JEFF QUINN, BUFFALO

Buffalo won the MAC title in ’08 and last year went 5-7. This year they return 14 returning starters and have a good shot at bowl eligibility. However, they lose a solid coach in Turner Gill and it will be interesting to see if Quinn can get Buffalo back to a MAC title game in the near future.

TODD BERRY, ULM

While Charlie Weatherbie did not lead ULM to a single bowl game in his 7 years, I thought he did a solid job last year improving the defense as they allowed 3.3 ypc (5.7 in ’08). Unfortunately they finished just 6-6 losing their final two games. I was not impressed with what Todd Berry did at Army and I think ULM will drop off of their 6-win total from last year.

ROBBIE CALDWELL, VANDERBILT

I think this is one of the toughest coaching jobs in the country and personally it is one job I would not take as you have an academic school trying to compete in the toughest football conference. If Caldwell took over last year, I would have placed this in the Tough Shoes to Fill category as Bobby Johnson did a great job guiding Vandy to a 7-6 season in ‘08. However, this year Vandy is coming off just a two-win season. Caldwell was a breath of fresh air at the SEC media days and this year will be entertaining to say the least but the wins will be few once again.

LANE KIFFIN, USC

You might be thinking that it is a no-brainer to put Kiffin in the tough shoes to fill category as he is saddled with sanctions, suspensions and transfers. With the Trojans on probation they could be in a similar situation to what Alabama and Miami, Fl faced when they were on probation. However, the reason I put Kiffin here is that USC was only 9-4 last year and I think they will take on an “us vs. them” mentality. I still have USC projected to win the Pac-10 title and if they catch all the right breaks and stay injury free, they do have an outside shot at a 13-0 season. If Kiffin does stay eight years at USC, he will come nowhere near Pete Carroll’s 101-13 record that he achieved in his last 8 years.

TOMMY TUBERVILLE, TEXAS TECH

I think Tuberville is a solid hire and after going thru the schedule I think Tech could have an 8, 9 or 10 win season possibly. Unfortunately he is taking over for the unique Mike Leach who recruited differently, went for it on 4th down a lot and never met a pass he didn’t like. With Tuberville focusing on the run more this year, it is such a big tweak that I wonder if they will be as successful this season.

Only 13 Days Until the First College Football Game!!

The magazine is printed as late as possible and we send it off to the press in the middle of May. 95% of what is written is still completely accurate come August. Every year though there are some players who have left the program for one reason or another during the summer and we will have those players updated in the 2010 “Out for the Year” section, which we have just posted on the site. (see below)

What I do in my personal magazine is circle the players that are lost and that way you can tell at a glance which teams suffer the most attrition and those that do not lose anybody. Prior to the season, the players who were lost during the summer and in fall practice are circled in red while the players lost during the season to injury or suspension are circled in blue.

Here is an example of what my Washington St magazine page looked like at the end of last year. I chose the Cougars because they suffered 67 starts lost to injury last year, the most in the NCAA. Remember when Oklahoma won the National Title in 2000? Not a single OU starter lost a single start due to injury!

This year with the heavy sanctions the NCAA has put on USC, naturally the Trojans have suffered some attrition. Here is what my current magazine page looks like for USC.

Here is the current list for players that have been lost for the year since the middle of May. This includes injuries, transfers, suspensions and dismissals. This list will be updated DAILY so check it often. Any player that will not suit up for 2010 when they were expected to in May needs to be on this list.  If you see any players missing in this list please email brandon@philsteele.com and we will get those players on there ASAP.  Also during the season we will provide an updated starts lost list for each school so you can see which schools are banged up and which fall into the zero starts lost category. This section will also update late additions. Here is the current list.

2010 Injuries, Suspensions, Transfers Prior To Season

Check back DAILY to make adjustments to your 2010 College Preview Magazine!!

First, I hope you and your families are having a very happy and safe 4th of July weekend!

In the June 19-20 blog I discussed my power ratings system, which lets me analyze at what level each team played during an individual game. This “game grade” takes into account the yards rushing, yards passing, points scored, rushing yards allowed, passing yards allowed and points allowed and factors them in against the opponent played and even factors in the site the game was played at.

One of the main factors in this “game grade” deals with total ypg differential (total off-total def). Naturally, a team that outgains their opponents by a large margin over the course of the season will receive a higher game grade average. While this is just one factor that goes into my overall game grade it got me wondering what were some of the best seasons in the last decade for teams outgaining their opponents.

Here are the best 50 seasons in the last decade (’00-’09) for outgaining opponents on the season.

As you can see Washington St has really struggled the last couple of years being outgained in ’09 by 3,161 yards and 2,630 yards in ’08. Altogether the Cougars have been outgained by 5,791 yards the last two years or an avg of 241 ypg!

Temple also had two of the worst seasons of the last decade. In 2006 they were outgained by 2,841 yards in ’06 and by 2,348 yards in ’05. However, those days look to be far behind them under HC Golden as the Owls won 9 games last year and were only outgained by 7 total yards!

Florida St outgained their opponents in 2000 by an amazing 3,264 yds or 253 ypg on the season! The Seminoles avg 530 ypg on offense and gave up just 277 ypg and were dominant all year long until they came up short in the national title game against Oklahoma.

The 2008 USC Trojans had arguably the best defense of the last decade allowing just 9.0 ppg and 222 ypg. The offense was equally potent avg 37.5 ppg and 455 ypg and outgained their opponents by 3,028 yds on the season. However, an early loss to Oregon St kept the Trojans out of the national title game.

While the Gators came up short in the SEC Title game last year, they did outgain their opponents by 2,874 yds which was #1 in the country with their amazing 659-246 yd edge over Cincinnati in the Sugar bowl putting them over the top.

Here are the teams that had the most appearances in the top 50

USC 5
Florida 4
TCU 4
Oklahoma 4
Texas 3
LSU 3

On the opposite side here the worst 50 seasons in the last decade for teams getting outgained by their opponents on the season.

Duke had five of the worst seasons this past decade as far as getting outgained by opponents, which was three more than any other program. However, like Temple HC Cutcliffe has turned them around and the Blue Devils were only outgained by a single yard last year!

Here are the teams that had two bottom 50 performances….Army, Baylor, Buffalo, FIU, Kansas, New Mexico St, Rutgers, Stanford, Syracuse, Temple, Utah St and Washington St.

I will be back tomorrow with a look at how the conference polls are coming along on the homepage. Remember this is a great way for me to gauge how the public views each game. When you vote you have the entire conference schedule in front of you and the home team is capitalized. Get your votes in today and see how the fans think the big games like Oklahoma-Texas, Ohio St at Iowa, Florida St at Miami, Fl and West Virginia at Pittsburgh are going to shake out! To vote you do have register your e-mail address but this is just to make sure there is no stuffing of the ballot box.

When it comes to college football, I am a traditionalist.  The one thing I love about college football is of all the sports, college or pro, the regular season in college football is the one that means the most. I also love the rivalries and the tradition of the bowls. While I have been calling for a system that pits the #1 vs #4 and #2 vs #3 teams in the Jan 1 bowls for nearly a decade, I am vehemently against an 8 or 16 team playoff which would destroy the bowls and make the regular season meaningless.

In 1995 I was actually sad to see the SWC fold as I really enjoyed the great tradition and history of that conference.

From the recent news of Nebraska joining the Big Ten and Colorado heading to the Pac-10, it looks like college football re-alignment and expansion is going forward and I think it will move quickly. However, unlike some of the past radical changes to college football, I actually look forward to seeing which programs end up where and I salivate at the possibility of there being multiple super conferences.

As for the Pac-10, I think it is just a matter of time before they announce Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St as new members thus making it the first super conference with 16 teams. I believe the original eight members will represent one division and the Arizona schools along with the new additions will make up the other.

I think the Big Ten will eventually invite Missouri and it will take the Tigers a half a second to say yes, thus giving them 13 teams. Also I have to feel that the Big Ten would like to grab some of the major markets on the east coast, like New York, and getting schools like Pittsburgh and Rutgers would fit that mold.

This brings me to Notre Dame, which clearly values its independence. The only way they make a move to the Big Ten would be if the Big East dissolves. Naturally, the Big Ten wants Notre Dame with a passion and if they were to get a couple of the Big East schools to join, they could force Notre Dame’s hand with the possibility of the dissolution of the Big East.

The SEC will then look to grab some of the best teams in the ACC. Miami and Florida St will be at the top of their list and schools like Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and Clemson should also get consideration.  The Hokies particularly are a very strong program and would be a nice fit in a newly expanded SEC.

This would create three super conferences and the Big East and ACC leftovers would probably join to form a smaller conference.

As for some of the teams left out in the Big 12, my first guess would be that they would join the Mountain West. While I am sure many fans (particularly Kansas) are not thrilled with the possibility of that move, the Mountain West, with the future addition of Boise and perhaps the leftover Big 12 schools would turn into an even stronger conference. They already have three Top 25 regulars in TCU, BYU and Utah.

Without question big changes are coming and it should be a fun month of June for the college football fan!

As for my thoughts concerning the NCAA penalties on USC; I thought it was pretty harsh. While I was not in the meetings to see what the NCAA found, it was not like USC was showering multiple players with gifts to come to USC and play football. It implicated just one player getting involved with an agent after he was already established in school.

With the two-year bowl ban and the loss of 30 scholarships it is a similar case to Miami, Fl in the mid-90’s.  That bad news for Trojan fans is that it took the Canes five to six years to get back to competing for national championships.

In the short-term, I still think the Trojans can be a top team in the Pac-10 this year.  They will take an “us vs them” mentality and will want to show the entire country that they are still a top program. Naturally with the postseason ban for the Trojans my new choice for the Rose Bowl would be Oregon who I had tied for the top of the Pac-10 even before the recent news.

Next year, however, looks troubling for the Trojans as they will start to see a lack of depth with scholarship losses and possible transfers. With smaller recruiting classes the Trojans will struggle to be dominant like they were under former HC Pete Carroll from 2002-’08.

Update: The NCAA just annouced that the juniors and seniors to-be on the football team will be allowed to transfer to other FBS programs without having to sit out a season. Naturally if several players start to transfer, this now could effect USC’s performance this year.

Yesterday we opened the polls on the homepage for you, the fans to vote on each and every conference matchup for six conferences. Last year you guys were more accurate than any other college preview publication and this is a great way for me to gauge how the public views each game. When you vote you have the entire conference schedule in front of you and the home team is capitalized. Get your votes in today and see how the fans think the big games like Oklahoma-Texas, Ohio St at Iowa, Florida St at Miami, Fl and West Virginia at Pittsburgh are going to shake out! To vote you do have register your e-mail address but this is just to make sure there is no stuffing of the ballot box.

Also please check PhilSteele.com everyday to get my Top 30 Countdown, which posted #7 Florida yesterday. Thru June 16th, I will post both magazine pages on a new team ranked in the Top 30 and you can get an early look on how I breakdown your favorite team. Remember those magazine pages are available for only 24 hours for you to download. Today, Boise St comes in at #6.

I will be back tomorrow with my weekend blog.

Only 83 DAYS LEFT UNTIL THE FIRST COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME!!!

THE POLLS ARE OPEN!!!

The last couple of years I have I put up a poll for everyone to pick who would win each conference game during the year. I found these results fascinating prior to the year. When you vote in the poll, it tabulates the current % of votes for each team in each individual game. Here are the results of the fan poll from 2009.

When initially reviewing the results I was quite impressed with the accuracy as you the fans did quite well in numerous conferences. In fact, when I calculated the results (similar to what stassen.com does for all the major preseason college football magazines) you guys finished #1!!!!

The scores are figured by taking each publication’s forecasting accuracy by comparing the predicted finish with the actual finish of each team in the conference. Keep in mind this chart is similar to Golf scores in that the lower the score the more accurate.

2009 Accuracy Chart

Last year you guys scored a low of 121 points, which was 11 points lower than GamePlan. Some of the conferences and divisions you did the best in were the SEC East (0 pts!) SEC West (4 pts) and the Mountain West 8 points. 

If you have any questions on the chart or need further explanation please refer to pages 306-307 of this year’s magazine or visit stassen.com

We put the polls up today for this year’s games on the homepage for six conferences and this is a great way for me to gauge how the public views each game. When you vote you have the entire conference schedule in front of you and the home team is capitalized. Get your votes in today and see how the fans think the big games like Oklahoma-Texas, Ohio St at Iowa, Florida St at Miami, Fl and West Virginia at Pittsburgh are going to shake out! To vote you do have register your e-mail address but this is just to make sure there is no stuffing of the ballot box. I will do a complete break down of the fan vote in a couple of weeks!

Also make sure to vote on who you think will win each conference on the homepage. Today we started with the Sun Belt conference and Troy has the early lead over Middle Tennessee. Each Conference Champion Poll will be up for two days so make sure you get your vote in early!

Please check PhilSteele.com everyday to get my Top 30 Countdown, which posted #8 USC yesterday. Thru June 16th, I will post both magazine pages on a new team ranked in the Top 30 and you can get an early look on how I breakdown your favorite team. Remember those magazine pages are available for only 24 hours for you to download. Today, Floridacomes in at #7.

I will be back tomorrow to talk about my thoughts concerning the latest expansion news, which will no doubt change the college football landscape!

Only 84 DAYS LEFT UNTIL THE FIRST COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME!!!