The AP Poll was released over the weekend and today I can officially come up with Overrated and Underrated teams for the upcoming year.

First, here is the Preseason AP Top 25.

Overrated Teams

#23 Auburn-There are several signs pointing downward for last year’s defending champ. This year they lose the best offensive player in the NCAA in Heisman winner QB Cam Newton as well as arguably the best defensive player in DT Nick Fairley. Auburn also benefited from an amazing 7 net close wins and naturally the schedule gets tougher with road games vs Clemson, South Carolina, Arkansas, LSU and Georgia. They lose an incredible 31 lettermen and return just 6 starters (fewest in the country). Last year I had Texas as my #1 overrated team (preseason AP #5) and they went from the National Title game to 5-7 and Auburn will have to have some talented youngsters grow up quickly to avoid a similar fate

#22 Florida-After an 8-5 season (NR) former head coach Meyer stepped down due to health concerns and they bring a new HC in Muschamp who has no previous HC experience and just 10 returning starters. The Gators have just 3 SEC HG’s and play South Carolina and UGA away from home and pull the top two teams (Bama and LSU) out of the West. I think UF may have a tough time topping last year’s 8 wins and will not finish in the AP Top 25 at the end of the year.

#9 Oklahoma St-Last year I took a lot of flack for picking the Cowboys last in the Big 12 South but nearly every magazine picked them 5th or 6th as they were one of the more inexperienced teams in the country. Naturally they went on to a great season with their first 11-win season in school history. This year they return 2 of their 3 “triplets” in Weeden and Blackmon but OSU loses OC Holgorsen and RB Hunter from an off avg 44.2 ppg, which was their best since 1988. OSU was also +12 in TO’s, has five Big 12 away games (incl at Texas A&M, Texas, Missouri, and Texas Tech) and only had 2 starts lost to injury last year. They do get Oklahoma at home again this year but were outgained by 209 yds to the Sooners last year. There is no question that the Cowboys are very talented but because of having such a tough B12 schedule I do not have them in my Top 15.

#7 Stanford-Last year was a dream season for the Cardinal as they had the 2nd highest AP Poll finish (#4) in school history. This year they do return QB Andrew Luck who is clearly the #1 player for next year’s draft but do lose their top 2 WR’s, 3 starting OL and 4 starters from their defensive front 7. They have just 11 returning starters and go from the battled tested coaching legacy of Harbaugh to a 1st-yr HC. While two of my 9 sets of power ratings call for an unbeaten year, with the loss of their HC and finishing up with USC, Oregon St, Oregon, California and Notre Dame all in a row, they will not match LY’s 12 win total and will finish outside the Top 10.

Underrated Teams

#13 Virginia Tech-The Hokies are not dominant but remind me of LY’s Auburn team in terms of schedule. VT should be favored in all 6 road games and get its toughest opponents at home (like eventual National Champ Auburn who had 4 of its 5 toughest at home). At 6-6 245 with a powerful arm and great mobility which sound a little like Cam Newton, QB Logan Thomas could be a breakout player this year. Finally despite ranking only #15 in my Power Poll, 8 of my 9 sets of power ratings calls for a 12-0 regular season!

#16 Notre Dame-Yes I know the Fighting Irish are probably the most underachieving team in the last 20 years but many signs are pointing upwards this year. HC Kelly who has a history of exceeding my expectations (6 of L/7 years) has a veteran squad with 17 returning starters that are now in the 2nd year of his schemes. While they do not have any cupcakes on the schedule they also have no teams in my Preseason Top 15. They could be favored in their first 11 games and remember Bob Stoops, Jim Tressel, Urban Meyer and Gene Chizik all won national titles in their 2nd years. All 9 sets of my power ratings call for double digit wins with 3 of them calling for a 12-0 season!

#19 Georgia-This is a must-win season for HC Mark Richt as he is definitely on the hot seat. The Bulldogs did have 4 net close losses last year and have signed some key newcomers in RB Isaiah Crowell and NT Jonathan Jenkins who should have a huge impact. The Bulldogs avoid the top 3 teams in the SEC West plus get South Carolina at home. UGA is one of my Most Improved Teams and is my upset pick to win the SEC East.

#25 USC-The Trojans were hit hard by the NCAA LY with a loss of scholarships and no bowls for 2 years. I expected them to be thin but Kiffin found some loopholes and was able to sign 31 players this year and will field a very talented team that can win the Pac-12 South (just not play in the title game). QB Barkley pilots a potent offense and Kiffin Sr will have a much improved D.

Texas-Mack Brown had led UNC and UT to winning records for 20 str years, the longest active streak of any FBS coach but last year they stunningly plummeted to 5-7. I think Mack Brown has made some great hires at coordinator and keep in mind that UT was -12 in TO’s LY. In ’07 QB Colt McCoy threw 18 int’s but he was much better as a Jr and they will get much better QB play this year after 17 int’s by a soph QB LY. The Horns  finally have a featured RB in true frosh Brown and UT will have a much better year than most expect.

Southern Miss-The Golden Eagles have had 17 consecutive winning seasons, which is the 4th longest active streak among FBS schools. LY they were +94.1 ypg in CUSA play (#1) and were just 8 pts away from a perfect 8-0 CUSA record and a 11-1 regular season mark. This year none of my 9 sets of power ratings call them #1 in the CUSA but almost all have them #2 and they have a schedule that sets up perfect with winnable road games and all the toughest games are at “The Rock”. Four of my 9 sets of power ratings call for a 12-0 record.

Houston-LY UH was the preseason favorite to win CUSA led by QB Case Keenum. UH put up 122 pts in the first 2 but then Keenum was inj’d and OFY in their loss to UCLA. Keenum was granted a 6th year and college football will benefit from that. His return has me very excited for this year’s squad and 8 of my 9 sets of power ratings call for a double digit win season which will at least double LY’s 5 win total! Three of the 9 call for them to be 11-0 when they travel to Tulsa!

USF-Skip Holtz was very successful at East Carolina including B2B CUSA Titles. This year the Bulls are a very talented team and only lose 15 lettermen (fewest in Big East). Two of my 9 sets of power ratings call for 11 wins, and I will call for them to top last year’s 8 win total.

Ohio-This year the Bobcats return just 11 starters but have a schedule that is tailor made for MAC success. Their 4 MAC away games are vs teams that finished 1-7, 1-7, 1-7 and 2-6 and they are only one of the top 4 MAC East teams that kept their HC. They avoid the Big 3 out of the MAC West (UT, NIU and WM) and I give them an excellent shot at their first double digit win season since 1968.

Clemson-Last year the Tigers had their first losing season since 1998 and this year Dabo Swinney is on the hot seat. They do return 14 starters and bring in a great recruiting class with adding the best set of true frosh LB’s in the country. They did have 4 net close losses last year and do get a key division game vs Florida St (Noles off Oklahoma) at home. Clemson makes my Most Improved list and will easily top LY’s win total.

Only 10 Days Until The First College Football Game!!!

Have a Safe and Happy New Year!!!!

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From 2005-’08 I published an article titled Coaching Changes in my College Football Preview magazine. Each year I try to make the magazine a little bit bigger and a little bit better but we’re capped out at 328 pages so Coaching Changes does not appear in my 2010 magazine. We have had a lot of requests for this article and since the website has an unlimited amount of room, PhilSteele.com is a great vehicle to continue publishing this article and I will do so each year.

COACHING CHANGES BY PHIL STEELE

There is something to be said for coaching stability as it usually takes a couple of years for a new head coach to get a program going. They usually have their best success when they have a team full of their own recruits and their offensive and defensive systems have been in place for a couple of years. The first few years can be rough on a new head coach as they inherit players who now have to learn new schemes on both offense and defense and he has to learn the players strengths and weaknesses. Pete Carroll won two straight National Titles but in his first year the Trojans opened up at 2-5 and finished at just 6-6 after the bowl. Tommy Tuberville’s first team at Auburn was just 5-6 but in his 6th season they were a perfect 13-0. Nick Saban’s first LSU team started off 3-3 and finished 8-4 but in his 4th year they won a share of the National Title. In Bob Stoops’ first year at Oklahoma, the Sooners were just 7-5, including a bowl loss to Mississippi. Since then, they have won a National Title and played in six Big 12 Championship games. Les Miles went 4-7 in his first year at Oklahoma St followed by 3 winning years. Jim Tressel was just 7-5 his first year but won a National Title in his second. Kirk Ferentz was a combined 4-19 his first two seasons but the Hawkeyes have now been to six Jan bowls. Pat Hill’s first two Fresno St teams went a combined 11-12 but since then have had 10 winning years. Finally Woody Hayes won just 4 games in his first season at Ohio St.

The reason I bring up these examples is twofold: first it shows that Athletic Directors should have a little more patience before firing a head coach for a losing season. Secondly, I wanted to point out that there are individual unit rankings in the lower right hand corner on each of the conference pages. You will notice that I have FIRST year coaching staffs graded lower than you would normally expect.

What sparked this article a few years back was Ole Miss’ dumping of David Cutcliffe just one year after the Rebels shared the SEC West Title with LSU. They were the only team that had been bowl eligible 7 straight years prior to that rare losing season. Then after the firing, from 2005-2007, the Rebels went just 3-21 in SEC play.

SLOW STARTERS

Let me go over some programs that stuck with coaches for much longer than expected, through many losing seasons but have ultimately been rewarded. The best example is Virginia Tech. Frank Beamer had successive years of 2-9, 3-8, 6-4-1, 6-5, 6-5, 5-6 and 2-8-1 to start his tenure. Amazingly, Virginia Tech stuck with him. Can you imagine another program that would stick with a head coach through a streak like that? Beamer has done an amazing job building his program including having one of the best strength training programs in the country. They are now a National Title contender on a yearly basis and simply won the ACC Title in their inaugural year in the conference despite being picked 7th in the preseason ACC poll. Joe Novak started out 1-10, 0-11, 2-9 and 5-6 his first 4 years at Northern Illinois and once again, they opted to stick with him and were rewarded with 7 consecutive winning seasons from 2000-’06. Darrell Dickey was DONE at North Texas. His first 3 teams went 3-8, 2-9 and 3-8 and in 2001 they opened the season 0-5. Their AD was under HEAVY pressure to get rid of Dickey not just at the end of the season but RIGHT THEN so they could have some hope. They rebounded to win an amazing 26 consecutive SBC games (including the final 5 in 2001)! They went to four bowls with 4 league titles. Will NT stick with 4th year HC Dodge (5-31 in ’07-’09) if he starts out like Dickey? Navy’s Paul Johnson went 2-10 in his first year but the Mids went to five straight bowls winning 8, 10, 8, 9 and 8 games in those seasons. Rocky Long inherited a New Mexico team that went 9-4 in Dennis Franchione’s last season and his first squad went just 3-9. Two more losing seasons followed but they stuck with him and the team had 7 consecutive years of bowl eligibility. When Barry Alvarez took over at Wisconsin, he went 1-10 in his first year and followed that up with two more losing seasons. The Badgers simply went to 11 bowl games in his tenure and he retired with an amazing three Rose Bowl wins under his belt. Dan McCarney of Iowa St had his team go 3-8, 2-9, 1-10, 3-8 and 4-7 his first FIVE years. Can you imagine an AD in today’s climate sticking with this guy? The Cyclones then went to 5 bowl games in McCarney’s last 7 years from 2000-’06. Then the new AD let McCarney go and they have went just 12-25 since! Bill Snyder went 1-10 at Kansas St in his first year and had 3 losing seasons his first 4 years but they stuck with him and he rewarded them with 11 straight bowl appearances, making them a National Title contender. Kentucky fans weren’t too thrilled when Rich Brooks was hired in 2003 and he inherited a team that had just 68 scholarship players. The Brooks era began with 3 losing seasons (9-25) but he rebounded to lead Kentucky to four straight bowl berths in the tough SEC. As you can see, sometimes patience is a virtue.

BAYLORED

OK let’s take a look at the Baylor situation. Constant head coaching changes are a bad thing. The coach inherits another coach’s recruits and many times they not only don’t fit his system but they signed with the school because of the other coaching staff. Many times personality or disciplinary conflicts arise and many players leave a program after the coaching change, leaving a team short on scholarships. I call this section “Baylored” because that school provides the most prominent example of how constant head coaching changes can hurt a program. Let’s go back to 1996. Baylor had 5 out of 6 winning years despite facing their tough SWC foes on a weekly basis. They were 7-5 in 1994 and 7-4 in 1995 and the amazing part was that HC Chuck Reedy was bringing in recruiting classes on par with teams like Texas and Texas A&M, even finishing ahead of the big boys some years! In this day and age a winning record for a Big 12 team would make them a perennial bowl team. In 1996 they had a nightmare season as the team was besieged by injuries and also dropped some close games like a 28-24 loss to Oklahoma, a 28-23 loss to Texas and a triple OT loss 49-42 to Missouri (those type of losses would look pretty good currently). They still finished 4-7 and clearly, if not for the injuries, could have had a winning season. Amazingly Baylor FIRED Coach Reedy! They have played THIRTEEN years of football since and have topped three wins in a season just 4 TIMES in that span (5 in ’05, 4 in ’06 and 4 the last two seasons)! First they brought in Dave Roberts in 1997 then after two losing seasons fired him! They brought in Kevin Steele and gave him 4 years before the axe fell. As mentioned with constant coaching changes, keeping the full complement of scholarship players has been a problem. Baylor has a record of 14-98 in the Big 12 and some years have been outgained by an avg of over 200 ypg in league play. Guy Morriss is the latest firing at Baylor as he had a 5-6 season in ’05 (4-1 start) and was given 5 years but continues the “Baylored” tradition.

FLIGHT DELAY

They do not run the option in the NFL so this category strictly applies to the college game. I have said many times over the last few years that it takes 3-4 years for an option team to successfully move to a pass offense. Why does such a switch take so long? A college team is basically built from 5 different recruiting classes with the classes from 3, 4 and 5 years ago being the most important. A college coach who runs an option offense can be very successful in the college game. To be a success he must be able to bring in big, powerful run blocking offensive linemen who are known more for power than pass blocking. His choice of WR’s is generally not made on the guy that will make the most catches but the one who may be the best downfield blocker. The QB’s in an option offense are valued more for their mobility than for their passing accuracy. When a coach comes in and tries to move to a pro style passing offense or a pure passing offense, he finds himself ill-equipped to do so. He needs fleet pass catching WR’s, QB’s who are known for their accurate passing and a solid pass blocking line. By the time a coach recruits those types of players and the starters spots are taken by those type of recruits, it is usually at least two years down the road and possibly 3 or 4. Two big name schools recently went through the switch and their struggles bear out what a difficult transition it can be.

Notre Dame was a run based attack under Lou Holtz with option style QB’s and continued in the same vein after his departure. When Ty Willingham took over he inherited a team that avg’d 102 ypg passing the previous year hitting 50% with a 4-11 ratio. The top 2 QB’s combined to throw for just 1,071 yards but had 893 gross yards rushing. While ND did win their first 8 games under Willingham, it was hardly due to offensive prowess. They had just 11 FD’s and 203 TOTAL yards on offense in a win over Purdue. Later they had 10 FD’s and 185 TOTAL yards on offense in a win vs Pitt. That offense averaged just 313 ypg with the QB’s hitting 50.4%. The next season they brought in a pure passing QB, Brady Quinn. Quinn however was a freshmen and the offense was just in its second year so he was not yet surrounded by the O-line and receivers which you need in a West Coast offense. He threw for 1,831 yards but only completed 47.3% with a 9-15 ratio. The third year of the offense showed solid improvement as you would expect. Quinn upped the totals to 2,586 yards passing, improved to 54.1% completions and had a 17-10 ratio. In 2005, with all 11 offensive starters back and in the 4th year of the switch, Charlie Weis stepped into a great situation and Quinn exploded with 3,919 yards passing (64.9%) with a 32-7 ratio. There were no Jeff Samardzija-types on the roster in Willingham’s first year but thanks to his recruiting, the team was much better equipped to run the pro offense under Weis. In 2006 with 3 solid receiving options, Quinn had 3,426 yards passing (61.9%) with a 37-7 ratio.

When Nebraska hired Bill Callahan he stunned the Husker faithful by announcing that he was ditching the option offense and converting to a pro style pass attack. Some said it was about time and thought he would have immediate success. The 2003 NU team was a solid 10-3. I did not make a lot of friends in Lincoln when the next year in my magazine I picked Iowa St, who had finished 2-10 the previous year to finish AHEAD of Nebraska in the Big 12 North! Joe Dailey threw for 2,025 yards which was the most at that school since Dave Humm way back in 1972. Unfortunately, he completed just 49.4% of his passes with a 17-19 ratio and the Huskers had their first losing season since 1961! Now, let’s not pin the whole thing on Dailey. He was recruited as an option QB and had OL’s in front of him that were recruited for run blocking who were just learning the pass blocking schemes. He also did not have a fleet of pass catching WR’s like most passing schools have. Callahan looked to speed up the system so he went the JUCO route (something ND did not do). He brought in PS#18JC QB Zac Taylor (no freshman QB growing pains), JC WR’s and OL’s. Despite bringing in JUCO’s, the offense did not take off right away. In the first two games vs IA foes in the 2nd year of the offense, they avg’d 104 ypg passing with just 45% completions. The unit got better as the season went on and Taylor threw for 392 yards generating 30 points vs Colorado in the season finale. For the season NU still completed just 53.8% and only increased their passing yards by 37 ypg. In 2006 they improved to 244 ypg passing and 59.4% completions and topped that in 2007 with 324 ypg pass (61.5%).

SOME TOUGH SHOES TO FILL

Following a legend is never easy. Vince Lombardi had an incredible run with the Green Bay Packers but after 4 straight NFL titles, stepped down. Phil Bengston was the unlucky guy who took over a team where anything less than an NFL title would be considered a weak season. Unfortunately he not only failed to bring home a championship but suffered 2 losing seasons in 3 years before being fired after going 6-8 in 1970. Ron Zook had the misfortune of being the guy who took over for Steve Spurrier at Florida. A few days after taking the job www.fireronzook.com got started and anything less than an undefeated season and National Title was construed as a failure. Here are a few other coaches that stepped into tough spots. Dennis Franchione left TCU after a great 10-2 season to take the job at Alabama. Gary Patterson unfortunately went 6-6 his first year but did flirt with an unbeaten season in 2003. At Ohio Jim Grobe had one of the best seasons at the school in recent memory in 2000 going 7-4 and contending for the MAC Title. He left for the ACC and Brian Knorr inherited raised expectations and was let go after 4 losing seasons. Tommy Bowden led Tulane to a 12-0 season in 1998 with 16 returning starters. He left for Clemson and Chris Scelfo inherited a rebuilding squad and had nowhere to go but down in his first year. They went just 3-8 but he did guide them to two winning seasons.

Some coaches have stepped into this type of tough situation and thrived. Urban Meyer led Utah to a super 12-0 season and left for Florida. His assistant Kyle Whittingham has guided the Utes to 5 winning seasons including a 13-0 #2 finish in 2008. Mike Price led Wash St to their first ever back-to-back 10-win seasons in the school’s history before bolting for Alabama. Longtime assistant Bill Doba took over and led them to ANOTHER 10-win season and a Holiday Bowl win over #5 Texas. Dirk Koetter left Boise St after a 10-2 season, their best ever, and while Dan Hawkins’ first squad “only” went 8-4, he did a remarkable job there going 45-7 in the next 4 years before moving on to Colorado. In 2006 Chris Petersen, who had been the longtime OC at Boise St, stepped in and as I forecasted in my 2006 magazine, took the team to a BCS bowl berth and an undefeated season after their win vs Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl.

RIGHT PLACE, RIGHT TIME

There are just some coaching openings that have early success written all over them. In 2004 for example I pointed out many times in the magazine that UTEP’s Mike Price was stepping into a great spot. Gary Nord took over at UTEP and guided the team to an 8-4 record and a rare bowl in his first year. He opted to build the program the right way by getting away from bringing in JUCO’s and he not only signed almost all freshmen but redshirted most of them, building the team’s depth. He suffered through 3 losing seasons but had put all of his eggs in the basket of the 2004 season, as he knew he would have success with a deep and veteran squad. Unfortunately they fired him so Mike Price took over a team that was -15 in turnovers the previous year and was just 2-11. When a new head coach comes into some early season success it gives a losing team new found confidence. They then buy into the new coach’s program more quickly. UTEP went on to their 1st back-to-back winning seasons since ’87-’88 and benefited thanks to Nord biting the bullet and taking those redshirts. Keith Burns was doing the same thing at Tulsa and also did not catch many breaks his last few years as his team was hit hard by injuries. His final team had just 9 seniors and naturally new head coach Steve Kragthorpe inherited a team with the most returning starters in the WAC (17). Some early season success had them more confident and the team rewarded the new guy going from 1-11 to 8-4 and a bowl berth. Urban Meyer took over a Utah team that was one of the most snakebitten teams in the NCAA in 2002. Between 2000-2002, Utah was among the MWC leaders in ypg vs conference foes and in 2000 and 2002 finished with losing seasons overall despite outgaining and outscoring their opponents on the year. In 2002 they had FIVE losses by 8 pts or less! The talent was there and when Meyer achieved some early season success, the team started gaining confidence and won those close games that had escaped his predecessor Ron McBride. Just two years later they were undefeated. There were 12 new coaches in 2005 and few success stories besides the heavily publicized hires of Charlie Weis, Florida’s Urban Meyer and LSU’s Les Miles. Bronco Mendenhall took over a snakebitten BYU team that had 3 close losses and outgained league foes by 54.6 ypg, 2nd best in the MWC in ’04, taking them to a bowl in ’05. Meanwhile, Bill Cubit of W Michigan, took a 1-10 team to a 7-4 record becoming bowl eligible.

TYPICAL 1ST YEAR HEAD COACH

When looking over the list of new coaches this year, I decided to add a new category to my repertoire titled “Typical 1st-Year Head Coach”. Typically when a HC takes over, there is a learning curve in the 1st year. The HC has to learn the player’s strengths and weaknesses and the players must learn new schemes on both sides of the ball. Generally with these circumstances, the team is not as experienced as they seem to be as many of the returning starters could lose their jobs under the new regime. These coaches in the near future will be achieving some success but the outlook in the first year is not as good.

Now let’s take a look at some of this year’s head coaching changes and I will put them into some of the categories listed above. Keep in mind many of this year’s new guys will go through the typical 1st years that I described previously.

2010 NEW COACHES

RIGHT PLACE RIGHT TIME:

The last 5 years I have had 34 coaches mentioned in this section. 27 of the 34 (79.4%) have improved their teams records (2 had same record). In 2006, Chris Petersen of Boise St took over a 9-4 team and guided them to a perfect 13-0 and a BCS bowl win. In 2007 Dennis Erickson took a 7-6 ASU squad to an 8-0 start and #6 in the country. In 2008, Houston Nutt took a 3-8 Ole Miss squad to a Cotton Bowl victory. Bo Pelini of Nebraska took over a 5-7 Husker squad and guided them to a tie for the Big 12 North Title. Coach Jerry Kill of Northern Illinois inherited a 2-10 squad and guided them to a bowl. Last year, I went a perfect 9 for 9 as every coach I listed guided their team to a better record. Gene Chizik took over a 5-7 Auburn team and led the Tigers to a 8-5 record including a New Year’s Day bowl win. Lane Kiffin also took over a 5-7 team and led the Volunteers to a 7-win regular season before departing for USC. Dabo Swinney inherited a 7-6 Clemson team and guided them to 9 wins and a division title as the Tigers made their first appearance in the ACC Title game. Steve Sarkisian did a great job at Washington in his first year as he took over a team that was just 0-12 in ’08 and led them to 5 wins. Also Bill Snyder in his second stint at Kansas St nearly led the Wildcats to a division title last year.

JIMBO FISHER, FLORIDA ST

Florida St has underachieved the last several years and unlike most new head coaches Fisher does not have to learn the players’ strengths and weaknesses as he has been the OC at FSU the past three seasons. I also feel that Fisher has taken away some of the game-day duties from coach Bowden the past couple of years and steps into a great situation as the team has not had double digit wins since ’03. The Seminoles are loaded on offense and get most of their toughest ACC foes at home as 7 of my 9 sets of power ratings call for a double digit win season!

BRIAN KELLY, NOTRE DAME

Kelly inherits a Notre Dame program that has vastly underachieved recently and even has a losing record the past 3 years. This year he inherits plenty of talent and Kelly always gets the most out of his players. While the defense gave up a school-record 398 ypg last year, 9 starters return and Kelly’s defense at Cincinnati performed admirably last year with just one returning starter. Kelly is the only coach in the history of the magazine to beat me six straight years and while he inherits an inexperienced QB, I would not worry too much as he led Cincinnati to a Big East title in ‘08 with FIVE different QBs!

SKIP HOLTZ, USF

There seems to be a recurring theme here as we are seeing coaches who get the most out of their talent inheriting underachieving programs. USF despite climbing into the AP Top 10 in two of the past three seasons tallied off late in the season and failed to finish in the Top 25. The Bulls were probably the most “athletically” talented team in the Big East the last three years while Holtz only had the 3rd or 4th most talented teams in CUSA the last couple of years but has two CUSA title rings on his fingers.

TURNER GILL, KANSAS

Personally I feel that last year’s team led by QB Todd Reesing and WRs Kerry Meier and Dezmon Briscoe is stronger than this year’s Kansas team. However, the Jayhawks caught Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech out of Big 12 South last year. This year they play none of those teams and have a much better schedule this year. Turner Gill did a great job at Buffalo and despite personnel wise being a little weaker this year, I think they have a great shot at bowl eligibility.

SONNY DYKES, LOUISIANA TECH

Derek Dooley did not leave the cupboard bare as he did a good job of recruiting and a good portion of the freshman were red shirted last year. The Bulldogs only lose 12 letterman from a 4-8 team that did not catch a lot of breaks last year with 3 net close losses. Despite their 3-5 record in conference play the Bulldogs were +27.9 ypg (4th best in WAC). All 9 of my sets call for bowl eligibility this year and an 8 or 9 win season is possible.

MIKE LONDON, VIRGINIA

Virginia did not catch a lot of breaks the last two years going just 8-16. Prior to ’08 the Cavaliers had been to 5 bowls in the previous 6 years, London steps into a good situation with the program having a newfound enthusiasm and will be favored in at least 3 games this year. While it will be tough playing in the brutal Coastal division with Miami, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and North Carolina plus drawing Florida St and Boston College from the Atlantic, Virginia has a solid shot at improving upon last year’s record.

WILLIE TAGGART, WKU

I like the job former HC David Elson did moving WKU from I-AA up to the FBS. The team really played its heart out for him last year but they suffered 3, 6 and 4-point losses blowing late leads in the last 3 games. This year Taggart inherits a team that returns 18 starters and while there won’t be a lot of wins on their platter this year, it only takes one to improve.

TYPICAL 1ST-YEAR HEAD COACH

CHARLIE STRONG, LOUISVILLE

I am very bullish on Charlie Strong at Louisville and I think it is a strong hire. Strong will bring lots of energy to a program that was 12-1 in ’06 but went just 15-21 under former HC Kragthorpe including just 5-16 in Big East play. This year the Cardinals have a tough schedule and return only 4 starters on defense. While I expect them to be more competitive on the field this year, they were -104 ypg in Big East play last year and return just 39% of their tackles (5th fewest in the NCAA). Strong will have them competing for a bowl game next year as they will be going up in the Big East standings, but this year they will have a tough time improving on last year’s 4-win total.

MIKE MACINTYRE, SAN JOSE ST

I got to speak to Coach MacIntyre this past off-season and came away very impressed. He has a plan to create his defense in the image of TCU but unfortunately has a depth-shy team and a lot of players will be playing different positions. The schedule is also brutal with Alabama, Wisconsin and Utah all coming on the road in the first four games. I think Dick Tomey did a great job leading San Jose St to 2 non-losing seasons in the last 4 years including a 9-4 finish in ’06 and I expect Coach MacIntyre to have the Spartan program on the upswing in the coming years after suffering a typical 1st-year HC season.

BOBBY HAUCK, UNLV

Hauck steps into a solid situation as UNLV could have been bowl-bound the last two years as they suffered some tough losses. Hauck had a solid record at Montana and inherits 15 returning starters this year but unfortunately the Rebels face a tough schedule (#25) and they will only be favored in a hand full of games. While the situation and head coach is solid, the Rebels could suffer a decrease in wins typical of a first-year head coach.

ROB IANELLO, AKRON

Former head coach JD Brookhart had two winning seasons his first two years before suffering four straight losing seasons and this year Ianello inherits only 13 returning starters. While Akron will have better fortune in TO’s and injuries this year, they must learn entirely new schemes and may not top last year’s win total.

LARRY PORTER, MEMPHIS

I got to speak to Coach Porter at the CUSA media days and came away very impressed, as he is a solid recruiter. He inherits a Memphis team that went just 2-10 last year after going to bowl games in five of the six previous years. While I think he will have the Tigers playing with a new enthusiasm this year, they do lose 25 letterman and face a brutal schedule, which has them facing the top four CUSA teams at home. There is a possibility that they could be an underdog in all 12 games this year. That does not mean they will lose all 12 but topping last year’s 2-win total will be tough.

DOC HOLLIDAY, MARSHALL

It’s about dang time Doc Holliday landed a head coaching job as it was talked about every off-season for several years and I think he will do a fine job at Marshall. However the Thundering Herd did win 7 games last year achieving their first winning season since 2003. They might find a difficult time topping that this year as Holliday has lost three of my projected starters so far this summer and may go thru the typical 1st-year struggles.

TOUGH SHOES TO FILL

The last 5 years I have had 17 coaches listed in this category. Three coaches in 2005 had their teams go from a combined 25-11 (69%) in 2004 to 15-19 (44%) in 2005. In 2007 four coaches were in the box and 3 had weaker records including Tim Brewster at Minnesota who took over a bowl squad and went 1-11. The one coach that improved his team’s record went from 10-3 to 11-3. In ‘08 I had 4 coaches listed in the box and of the 4 coaches, only one (Steve Fairchild, Colorado St) managed to improve his team’s record but keep in mind the Rams were coming off a 3-9 season.

BUTCH JONES, CINCINNATI

I’m a big fan of Butch Jones and I even mentioned him as being great possible hire for Cincinnati in my December 13 Blog before he was announced as head coach. But how do you top 12-0? How do you top back-to-back Big East titles and back-to-back BCS bowl games? There is no question he has some big shoes to fill but he has done it before at Central Michigan.

RUFFIN MCNEILL, EAST CAROLINA

I met Coach McNeill at the CUSA media days and was very impressed. I think he will stay at East Carolina for a long time and have good success. Unfortunately he takes over a team that was only the 3rd or 4th most talented in the conference but won a pair of CUSA titles the last two seasons.  They will struggle to match that success this year as he inherits a team that returns just 8 starters and loses 30 lettermen. East Carolina also returns just 38% of their tackles which is 2nd fewest in the country and were +11 in TO’s last year. While McNeill will have the Pirates in the near future atop the CUSA standings, they could go from back-to-back titles to a losing season this year.

JOKER PHILLIPS, KENTUCKY

Naturally the SEC is a super competitive conference and when former HC Rich Brooks was hired not a lot of fans were happy (see slow starters). After 3 losing seasons, Brooks rewarded their faith with spades as he led them to four straight bowls and an overall 30-22 record as the Wildcats have had 10 upsets in the last four years! This was quite an accomplishment at a school predominately known as a basketball power. While Phillips steps into a good situation, as he has been the coach-in-waiting and knows the current players, it will be tough to duplicate four straight bowls in the rugged SEC.

DAN ENOS, CENTRAL MICHIGAN

Enos inherits a program that has won 3 of the last 4 MAC Titles but this year the Chippewas lose record-setting QB LeFevour as well as WRs Brown and Anderson. Central is changing schemes on both sides of the ball and has only five home games this year. After all the success of the past four years, there is really only one way to go.

BAYLORED

In 2005 the whole reason for me to write this article was the ridiculous firing of coach Cutcliffe at Mississippi where he had done a GREAT job. I think it may be decades before you see Ole Miss bowl eligible for 5 straight years and go to 5 bowls in a 6-year stretch like they did under Cutcliffe. In 2007, I had Rice and Idaho listed here due to constant coaching changes. Idaho went from 4-8 to 1-11 and Rice went from a bowl game to 3-9. In ‘08 I put Southern Miss here as Larry Fedora had one of 5 teams in the NCAA that had 14 straight winning years. The Golden Eagles opened 2-6 and it appeared that a losing season was a given but rebounded to win their final 5 games of the year and match their 2007 record of 7-6. Last year I had Frank Spaziani here as the Eagles went from 11 wins in ’07 to 9 wins in ’08 and followed that up with 8 wins last year.

DEREK DOOLEY, TENNESSEE

Anytime a school has three head coaches in three years you are going to see a lot of attrition. At Tennessee, there have been 3 drastically different head coaches as several Fulmer recruited players left last year when Kiffin took over and this year several Kiffin recruited players have departed. The Volunteers could be under 70 scholarships this season and face a brutal schedule in which they will be a heavy underdog in six games. Tennessee will probably have to sweep November just to get to a bowl game and it will take a few years to reclaim their spot atop the SEC. While I think Dooley is a very good hire as he did a decent job at Louisiana Tech, topping last year’s 7 win total will probably not happen.

NO DESIGNATION

In 2007 I created this category. Some new coaches have conflicting things working for them and it is tough to toss them into any one category above. Of the six I tossed in this category in ‘08, three had miserable seasons for their schools (Texas A&M, UCLA, Washington St) and W Virginia was disappointing. Baylor and Georgia Tech, however, had more success than most thought they would. Last year I had 7 coaches here and like ’08, they had mixed results. Eastern Michigan, and Miami, Oh had miserable seasons while Iowa St and Wyoming had better seasons than expected.

JEFF QUINN, BUFFALO

Buffalo won the MAC title in ’08 and last year went 5-7. This year they return 14 returning starters and have a good shot at bowl eligibility. However, they lose a solid coach in Turner Gill and it will be interesting to see if Quinn can get Buffalo back to a MAC title game in the near future.

TODD BERRY, ULM

While Charlie Weatherbie did not lead ULM to a single bowl game in his 7 years, I thought he did a solid job last year improving the defense as they allowed 3.3 ypc (5.7 in ’08). Unfortunately they finished just 6-6 losing their final two games. I was not impressed with what Todd Berry did at Army and I think ULM will drop off of their 6-win total from last year.

ROBBIE CALDWELL, VANDERBILT

I think this is one of the toughest coaching jobs in the country and personally it is one job I would not take as you have an academic school trying to compete in the toughest football conference. If Caldwell took over last year, I would have placed this in the Tough Shoes to Fill category as Bobby Johnson did a great job guiding Vandy to a 7-6 season in ‘08. However, this year Vandy is coming off just a two-win season. Caldwell was a breath of fresh air at the SEC media days and this year will be entertaining to say the least but the wins will be few once again.

LANE KIFFIN, USC

You might be thinking that it is a no-brainer to put Kiffin in the tough shoes to fill category as he is saddled with sanctions, suspensions and transfers. With the Trojans on probation they could be in a similar situation to what Alabama and Miami, Fl faced when they were on probation. However, the reason I put Kiffin here is that USC was only 9-4 last year and I think they will take on an “us vs. them” mentality. I still have USC projected to win the Pac-10 title and if they catch all the right breaks and stay injury free, they do have an outside shot at a 13-0 season. If Kiffin does stay eight years at USC, he will come nowhere near Pete Carroll’s 101-13 record that he achieved in his last 8 years.

TOMMY TUBERVILLE, TEXAS TECH

I think Tuberville is a solid hire and after going thru the schedule I think Tech could have an 8, 9 or 10 win season possibly. Unfortunately he is taking over for the unique Mike Leach who recruited differently, went for it on 4th down a lot and never met a pass he didn’t like. With Tuberville focusing on the run more this year, it is such a big tweak that I wonder if they will be as successful this season.

Only 13 Days Until the First College Football Game!!

A lot of people ask me if I have a favorite team. I was born and raised and still live in Cleveland, Ohio. I was a fan of many teams as a child but now that I put out a National magazine, I cannot afford to be a fan of any team. I have to pick the teams where I think they will finish each year. I was doing a radio show last week and I was asked if I have a favorite team or teams. My response was a strong YES! The interviewer was surprised by that answer and also eager to hear which team I would pick. My answer was my favorite team each year is the team I pick #1 in the magazine and my favorite teams are the ones I have picked higher than all the other major magazines out there. I then said that each year I establish a list of my favorite teams for that year. I then give this list to my wife. I wear a shirt and tie to work every day during the week and my tie is always a college team. I wear polo shirts during the weekend and when not at work and they are always different college teams. The list I give my wife is the ones to buy that I will be wearing for the upcoming year as these are the teams I will be the biggest fan of for the upcoming season. I was then asked “What teams will your wife be buying ties and shirts of this year? That was a great question and I thought I would answer it in a blog.

I went to preseason.stassen.com to find out where all the magazines have everyone ranked for the upcoming year. Here is the list of teams that I will be rooting for the most this year.

First I want to mention that my favorite shirt is naturally the PhilSteele.com shirt that will soon be available for you to purchase on the PhilSteele.com store but you can get a sneak peek at what they look like by clicking here.

Oklahoma-As I said every year the team that is my pick to win the national title is my favorite team of the year and this year that team is the Oklahoma Sooners who I feel are way undervalued. There are numerous reasons that have them pointing for a banner season. Last year, the Sooners lost 42 starts to injury, which was THIRD highest in the country. Also they suffered four close losses, which means they were just a play or two away in each game from having a much better record. Statistically they were the best team in the entire Big 12 as they outgained their opponents by 133 ypg! They also had an inexperienced offensive line and were starting a frosh QB due to injury. Naturally this year they are in much better shape at both those positions. The Sooners this year remind me very much of my 2008 pick to win it all, which was the Florida Gators. Coming into the season Florida was not even favored to win the SEC East as Georgia finished the 2007 season #2 and were returning both QB Stafford and RB Moreno. Meanwhile the Gators were coming off a four-loss season. However, when the dust cleared on the season, Tebow and company delivered for me as they won the national title. I have picked the Big 12 South winner the last 7 years and will be going for 8 this year. Last year during the Red River Shootout, I was decked out in Texas gear including my Longhorn hat as I picked Texas to play for the national title. However this year I hope Bob Stoops can regain his “Big Game Bob” moniker as I will be decked out in Sooners garb all season.

North Texas-The Mean Green made my most improved list so you knew I was rooting for them right from the start. Over the past 12 years of all the teams that had losing records the previous year, only 20% improve to bowl eligibility the next year. The last two years my Most Improved list has had 69% of the teams go from a losing record to bowl eligibility! Most magazines look at the past performances for North Texas (2-20 last 5 years in the Sun Belt) and pick them 8th in the SBC or 2nd last. Every year is a new year and I think this is the season it all falls into place for NT and I have them THIRD in the Sun Belt! Get me those North Texas polo shirts and ties as I will be rooting for North Texas every week this season!

California - The Bears have been disappointing fans for years. Last year Cal opened the year #12 in the polls and finished unranked and a disappointing 8-5 including a bowl loss to Utah and a blowout 42-10 loss to Washington in their last 2 games. In 2007 they were #12 and finished unranked and just 7-6 needing a bowl comeback win to avoid a losing season. This year writers have thrown Cal in the trash can and they are primarily picked 7th or 8th in the very competitive Pac 10. I have them tied for 3rd! Cal does have the benefit of only 4 Pac 10 road games and one of those is against Wash St meaning most of their winnable games are at home. Both their offensive and defensive lines rank in my top units and I will be rooting for the Golden Bears almost every week this season!

Western Michigan – Bill Cubit is one of the most underrated coaches in the country and I think this year he ends up MAC coach of the year and some smart BCS school snatches him up. Most people when they look at a team look at last years record (5-7) and if the QB and top RB are returning. WM loses both QB Hiller and RB West (1164 yards) and if that is how you rate a team you will not be very high on WM this year. I look at a team that was wiped out on defense last year due to graduation and now has a much more experienced group on that side of the ball. I like the replacements at QB and RB and they are talented at WR and the offensive line. Most have Western finishing FOURTH in the MAC West while I have them playing in the MAC title game. I was an Ohio Bobcat fan last year and they did not disappoint, no doubt I am a huge Broncos fan this year!

USF – USF has been the poster child for an underachieving team the last few years. They have reached the top 10 in both 2007 and 2008 but finished each year unranked. Last year they were an average 8-5 team and they are just 5-9 in Big East play the last two years. The other magazines must be bitter about those finishes as they have pegged them 6th this year despite the fact they return 15 starters including QB BJ Daniels. Remember last year they opened 5-0 despite losing their starting QB Grothe to injury in week 3. The biggest news this year is that Skip Holtz takes over as head coach. The last two years he has had only the 3rd or 4th most talented team in CUSA but has a pair of CUSA championship rings! He gets the most out of the talent on hand and inherits a very talented team. I have them pegged to finish in a tie for 3rd and consider them a Big East title contender this year. I already have a South Florida tie, so I guess I will just pick up a polo shirt this year.

UAB – When Neil Calloway took over he had a scholarship depleted team and were an easy pick for me as I picked them last in the CUSA East and they were 1-7 and landed right there. Calloway has done a solid job the last two years getting the team to go 7-9 in conference play and this year is finally up to scholarship limits and has 16 returning starters to boot. Joe Webb their outstanding QB is gone but that is the only position that is weaker this year. Most magazines have them 5th or 6th but I have them in a tie for 3rd in the CUSA East. This will be the first time in a long time I will be
rooting for the Blazers but I have to think their logos on the Polo shirt would be pretty cool with the Dragon breathing fire, so that should be a good shirt to add to the collection.

Arizona – Last year Arizona was on this list but after checking my closet, I did not get Wildcat polo. Last year Arizona was picked 5th by Lindy’s, 6th by USA Today and EIGHTH by Athlon and The Sporting News and I had them tied for 3rd. Arizona finished tied for 2nd so I was very pleased. Rarely do I get the chance to root for the same team two straight years. This year I picked them tied for third in the Pac 10 again but the other publications have them 5th, 6th or even 7th (Blue Ribbon). Only one source in the country has Arizona RANKED this year and that is my magazine and I consider them a Pac-10 title contender. It is time to get that Wildcat shirt this year!

Miami, Fl- The Hurricanes are my pick to not only win the ACC Coastal this year but they are my favorite to win the overall ACC Title! I have the Canes ranked #9 in the country while other magazines such as Lindy’s, Blue Ribbon and USA Today all picked them to finish as low as 4th in their division!

Penn St-I have the Nittany Lions picked to finish tied for 2nd this year while everyone else has them 4th. I already have a Penn St tie but this year I think it’s time to finally get that polo shirt.

Maryland-Last year I was rooting against Maryland on a weekly basis. Despite coming off an 8 win season that included a bowl win, I picked the Terps to finish in last place which is precisely where they ended up. This year they are in much better shape and make my most improved list. While the Terps are the sheik pick to finish 6th again, I have them rated higher and will be a big fan of them this year in stark contrast to last season.

Michigan-Like I said earlier, I have no allegiances to any team other than where my magazine predicts them. While I have been born and raised in the state of Ohio my entire life and as a child rooted for Ohio St, this year the Wolverines make my most improved list and I have them playing in the Gator Bowl against LSU. While I have the Wolverines picked to finish tied for 5th, other magazines like Athlon and Sporting News have them picked 8th. I will have no trouble rooting for Michigan in most games this year.

Colorado-My first impression of the Buffaloes this year was to pick them to finish 6th in the Big 12 North as they were one of the few teams to make my most improved list but did not go to a bowl as they finished a pathetic 3-9. However, that was my mindset when I started but after compiling all of my research in May, I think they have the most improved OL in the country and will make a bowl this year.  I have them picked to finish 4th which is far higher than most of the other magazines. I already have a Colorado polo shirt, now it’s time to get a tie!

Auburn-After I finish writing my magazine in May, I go thru every game of the upcoming season and figure out who I think will be the favorite/dog in each game. After finishing Auburn’s schedule I did not have the Tigers as an underdog in any of their first 11 games (2 pick-ems)!  While Auburn is picked to finish 3, 4 or 5 by most magazines this year, I have them picked 2nd in the SEC West thanks to a great SEC schedule. Surprisingly I have no Auburn polo shirts and I definitely think it’s time to pick one up this year!

Ball St-The Cardinals are another team that I rooted against last year, but this year will be rooting heavily for.  In 2008, the Cards finished the regular season at 12-0 but the following year, I picked them 5th in the MAC West which is where they ended up. Last year they were very inexperienced and had a new coach. This year they have 19 returning starters and while Stan Parrish’s 4-41-1 overall record as head coach gets a lot of publicity, I think a lot of it is due to mitigating circumstances. I do feel Parrish is a quality coach and will get the most out of his team this year. While most magazines have them picked to finish 5th again, I have them tied for 3rd!

Kent St-Last year the Golden Flashes came close to being a bowl eligible squad as they suffered 3 close losses. This year they get back RB Eugene Jarvis who I am a big fan of and I will call for them to finally break thru as I have them ranked #11 on my most improved list.

Baylor-The Bears have not been to a bowl game since 1994 and this year they make my most improved list (losing season to bowl eligibility). Naturally, I will be rooting for them very hard this year!

Fresno St-Last year the Bulldogs could have beaten both Wisconsin and Cincinnati on the road. While I don’t think they will win at Boise this year, they could upset Nevada at home. I have them tied for 2nd in the WAC which is higher than all the other preseason magazines as the Sporting News and Gold Sheet both have them tied for 5th.

San Diego St-The Aztecs make my most improved list (#6) and have one of the best coaching staffs in the country. This year I think QB Lindley will be more comfortable behind center as the Aztecs make their first bowl game since 1998!

West Virginia-This year I have the Mountaineers tied for first in the Big East which is higher than most of the other preseason magazines. I already have my West Virginia shirt that I wear all the time and this year I will be wearing it some more!

Only 21 Days Until the First College Football Game!

The official on sale date for my 2010 College Football Preview was yesterday and if you do not already have a copy, head out to the bookstores and newsstands today. The magazine is available nationwide at Wal-Mart, Barnes & Noble, Waldenbooks, Borders, Hastings, Media Play, Target, Books-A-Million, K-Mart and Circle K. There are other locations where we shipped to, so check the magazine section at stores near you. The cost is just $8.95 in the stores but they tend to fly off the shelves. If you’re having trouble finding a copy visit our store or call 1-866-918-7711 and order your copy thru the office (plus shipping). 

The past few weeks I have been giving you some advanced articles from the magazine to wet your appetite for the upcoming year. Today I will give you the results of the Draft Day Party Hangover, which is on page 308.

After several years of research I have found that almost 7 out of every 10 teams that rank among the top in the NCAA in players drafted struggle the next year and have a weaker record. I call it the Draft Day Party Hangover Effect.

For the system I have created, 7 points are awarded if a player was picked in the 1st round. A 2nd round pick garners 5 points, a 3 round pick four, 4th round three and a 5th round two.  In the NFL there’s not much difference between a 6th or 7th round pick and a high quality undrafted free agent signee so I award 1 point to a 6th or 7th round pick. Using this point system I went back and plugged in the last 13 years’ draftees and found some interesting results. I limited my research to those teams that totaled 12 or more points, which makes them among the best in the NCAA.

I do eliminate a team from my list that totaled 12 or more points if that is less than the previous year’s total. Let’s face it, some programs turn out lots of draft picks every year and 12 is a low total for some teams. If you need more information please refer to pg 308 in this year’s College Preview magazine. 

Over the last 13 years teams that earned more points than the previous year and accumulated….

12 or more points – Weaker or same record 179 of 236 (75.8%)
24 or more points – Weaker or same record 49 of 58 (84.5%)
35 or more points – Weaker record 13 of 15 (86.7%)

With that in mind, this year there were 21 teams that earned 12 points or more from their losses in the NFL draft. Three teams on that list have LESS points than last year in USC (25), Oregon (12), Mississippi (12).

One thing I pointed out in past years is that the National Champ does have a good shot at appearing on these lists. In the past 13 years there have been 14 National Champs (LSU and USC were co-champs in ’03) with 12 of the 14 having earned 12 or more points in the draft the previous year. The only exceptions were ’06 Florida (7 pts) and ’08 Florida (11 pts). The two teams that overcame the biggest draft losses and still managed to win a title were the 2001 Miami Hurricanes, who had 34, and the 1998 Tennessee Volunteers (32). Seven of the 14 actually earned 20 or more points in the draft loss category. Last year’s champion Alabama had 19 points in the draft loss category.

According to past history, in reviewing the 18 teams in the box below, only 4 or 5 will manage to improve their record this year, BUT the National Champ is very likely to be one of the 18 teams on the Draft Day Hangover List.

For 2010, I did make one tweak as Oklahoma came up with 35 but Jermaine Gresham a #1 pick (7 pts) did not play a down so I took his numbers out (see asterisk above).

Please check PhilSteele.com everyday to get my Top 30 Countdown, which posted #9 Miami, Fl yesterday. Thru June 16th, I will post both magazine pages on a new team ranked in the Top 30 and you can get an early look on how I breakdown your favorite team. Remember those magazine pages are available for only 24 hours for you to download. Today, USC comes in at #8.

Only 85 DAYS LEFT UNTIL THE FIRST COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME!!!

Each day during bowl season in my daily blog, I will give you my forecasts on the bowl games taking place that day. My forecasts will include a detailed write-up with my computer’s projected box score including rushing and passing yards, points and turnovers along with a detailed write-up on each game.

Also check out the bowl matchup section to get the latest and greatest information on all the upcoming bowl games including, game by game stats, 2009 recaps, and checklists for every position and intangible.

Yesterday I had a 5-0 day in my forecasts including three outright upsets! I picked Florida to win big over Cincinnati as they had a 659-246 yard edge and I called for Auburn to win by 3 in the Outback Bowl! I hope to have another great day with today’s forecasts on the five games.

International Bowl

Northern Illinois vs USF

Gametime Projected Weather: Played in Rogers Centre (Dome).

Northern Illinois is more excited to be here.  Naturally USF has the talent edge and in this bowl game the Big East has won all three including the last two by 22 and 18 points. South Florida does have the most electrifying player on the field in QB BJ Daniels.  The Bulls also have 2 outstanding defensive ends to rush the passer.  If Northern Illinois is going to have a chance they need RB Chad Spann (938 rush yards, 5.94 ypc, 19 TDs) to have a big game.  Husky QB Chandler Harnish could have a breakout game if given time. On paper USF should win by 10-17 points but with the Huskies more excited I’ll call for the Bulls to escape by 3.

PHIL’S FORECAST: USF 24 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 21

Papa Johns Bowl

Connecticut vs South Carolina

Gametime Projected Weather: 37° Sunny Wind: NNW 10 mph

Connecticut has been a great story this season after losing cornerback Jasper Howard and still went 7-5 and had it not been for a couple of tough losses the Huskies could have had a great season.  UConn does have a large special teams edge (#31-108) and 3 times this season the running back combo of Jordan Todman and Andre Dixon have each topped 100 yards rushing.  South Carolina has a large edge on defense (#14-78) and they are more excited than normal with a chance of using this game as a springboard to next year.  With that large edge in defense I’ll call for the Gamecoccks to win this by 14.

PHIL’S FORECAST: SOUTH CAROLINA 31 CONNECTICUT 17

Cotton Bowl

Mississippi vs Oklahoma St

Gametime Projected Weather: Played in Cowboys Stadium (Dome).

Oklahoma St suspended cornerback Perrish Cox who is not only the Cowboys top corner but also one of the top corners in the country. Cox is also their main KR (20.9) and PR (10.4) as his loss will be huge.  The Cowboys do get RB Kendall Hunter back and Ole Miss has struggled against spread offenses.  These two were both unusually ranked in the top 10 this preseason and neither lived up to expectations. This has become sort of the Redemption Bowl for both teams.  Expect Ole Miss RB/WR Dexter McCluster to have a big game and QB Jevan Snead to stay away from costly mistakes as I’ll call for the Rebels by 7.

PHIL’S FORECAST: MISSISSIPPI 31 OKLAHOMA ST 24

Liberty Bowl

Arkansas vs East Carolina

Gametime Projected Weather: 29° Partly Cloudy then Clear Wind: NNE 5 mph

East Carolina coach Skip Holtz thinks this will be lower scoring than expected as his defense matches up well with high-powered offenses including winning the last 2 CUSA title games vs Houston.  Arkansas has suspended three players, which is reminiscent of Skip’s father Lou who suspended three of his top players in the 1978 Orange Bowl against Oklahoma and the Hogs responded with a big win.  Both teams are fired up to be here but I like the way Skip Holtz gets his team ready for big games as the Pirates keep it closer than expected.

PHIL’S FORECAST: ARKANSAS 31 EAST CAROLINA 27

Alamo Bowl

Michigan St vs Texas Tech

Gametime Projected Weather: Played in Alamodome.

A bizarre game.  Michigan State has 14 players suspended including some key WRs and DBs and of course Texas Tech will be with out head coach Leach who also serves as the OC and play caller.  Neither team will be near their regular season capabilities but the crowd will favor Texas Tech as they have sold a majority of the tickets for this game. Would you rather have 14 players suspended or be without your head coach? We will find out an answer but I originally sided with Texas Tech and interim coach McNeill should have them pretty fired up.

PHIL’S FORECAST: TEXAS TECH 37 MICHIGAN ST 24

Conference Bowl Standings

The MWC is a perfect 4-0 and has a chance to finish the postseason undefeated if TCU can beat Boise St in the Fiesta Bowl on Monday. The Sun Belt also has a chance to finish undefeated if Troy beats MAC champ Central Michigan in the GMAC on January 6th. The Big 12 and Big 10 have had decent postseasons as the Big 10 picked up a couple of big wins yesterday with Penn St beating LSU on a muddy field in the Capital One Bowl and Ohio St took care of Oregon in the Rose Bowl. It was the first win for the Big 10 in the Rose Bowl since 1999 (0-6)! Northwestern almost made it a perfect day for the conference but a fake field goal try failed in OT as Auburn beat the Wildcats 38-35 in an entertaining Outback Bowl. The SEC despite the LSU loss had a good day led by Florida’s demolition of Cincinnati in the Sugar Bowl as the Gators had a 659-246 yard edge! Finally the Big East which came into yesterday 2-0 lost both games including West Virginia’s loss to Florida St in the Gator Bowl which gave Bobby Bowden a win in his final game.

Bowl Confidence Contest

Make sure to check the daily blog every day as we will be posting the standings here after every bowl game is played.

There will be two Top 50 leaderboards. The first one will be points won and the second is best win percentage of their points. Sometimes the early leaders are the ones that risked the most on the early bowls and they fall by the wayside as the contest goes on so that is why I will also keep track of those that have the best win percentage.

I have also added two columns to the leaderboards in today’s blog and will include them from here on out. The first column shows how many points are left on the table. There were 595 possible points and with 9 games left some have wagered a lot more points than others so far. The 2nd column figures the maximum possible points one can finish with if all their picks win. As you can see some people farther down the leaderboard have an opportunity to finish with more points since they have risked less points so far.

After 25 bowl games William Meleski continues to lead the contest for the tenth day in a row with 315 points won and a 70% win %. However it will be interesting to see if he can hold onto to his lead in the next couple of days with only 67 points left. Ben Brin is in 2nd again with 355 points and Marc Ostrom moves up to 3rd with 352 points. Don Seebold is first in win % with 83% and he still has 175 points left.

I had a perfect 5-0 day yesterday and now have 284 points! There are still 9 bowl games remaining including five today! Remember 1st place wins $250, 2nd place gets $100 and a set of regionals and 3rd gets $50 and a set of regionals.

Thanks again to the near 1200 people that have entered. If you have any questions concerning your points or do not see your name in the Top 50 and think it should be please email Brandon@philsteele.com.

Here are the current leaderboards.

The Top 50 in Points Won

The Top 50 in Win %

There were very few games this week so it wasn’t as tough to earn a Top 20 spot from my computer’s average individual grades as there was only 34 performances to grade. Therefore, I will cut it off at the Top 14 this week.

Alabama’s big 32-13 win over #1 Florida easily gave them the #1 grade for the week as the Tide had a 490-335 yd edge including a 251-88 rush edge. Alabama controlled the line of scrimmage as well as the clock having a 39:37-20:23 edge in TOP as the Tide advanced to the national title game.

Coming in at #2 was Washington’s domination of California as they pounded the lethargic Bears 42-10 with a 167 yd edge.

Wisconsin’s pummeling of Hawaii on the Islands earned them the #3 spot as they won 51-10 with a 340 yard edge. Keep in mind Hawaii was playing to get a bowl bid.

While Oregon only beat Oregon St by 4, they outgained a strong foe by 100 yards at home in Autzen and that earned my computer’s #4 spot.

Despite the Loss, Nebraska earned the #5 spot by holding Texas to just 202 total yds. The Horns came into the game avg 451.6 ypg and the 18 yds rushing by the Horns were their lowest total on the season. The Huskers rattled Colt McCoy with 8 sacks.

At #6 is Texas as they played great defense as well holding the Cornhuskers to just 106 yds and outgained Nebraska by 96 yds.

Georgia Tech ran for 333 yds in their 39-34 win over Clemson in the ACC Championship. to earn the #7 spot. The Yellow Jackets had a 469-414 yd edge and were +2 in TO’s.

Arizona went on the road and beat USC outgaining them by 39 yards and that was good enough for the computer’s #8 ranking this week.

Oregon St despite the loss comes in at #9 as they went into Autzen Stadium and only lost by 4.

While Cincinnati needed a last minute TD to pull out a win over Pittsburgh, they were taking on a top-notch team on the road and it was good enough for my computer’s #10 spot.

Last year it was wildly popular when we had the Bowl Confidence Poll appear on the site and once again this year I’ll be doing that. Due to the fact we will not be having Top 25 forecasts this week, I will have a lot more time to get some different things up so check out my daily blog for the latest bowl action.

Navy QB Dobbs has a small crack in his kneecap from a prior inj in HS that will have to be repaired, but he is hoping to play thru the injury and have it fixed after the season….

Michigan’s Rich Brooks isn’t hiding his quarterback decision this week.  He’s said true frosh Morgan Newton will start….

S Carolina is looking to avenge last year’s loss to Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt is coming off a 34-10 loss to Georgia and South Carolina’s 20-6 loss at Alabama….

Tennessee asked for and received permission from the SEC to wear orange jerseys but Alabama rejected the request….

Vanderbilt could be without both of their starting OT’s, RT James Williams suffered a season-ending broken ankle and  LT Thomas Welch has a sprained ankle….

If LSU can win out, it will make it to the SEC Championship Game….

Houston Nutt thinks Ole Miss can still make it to the SEC Championship Game. If they lose this game, not only will that dream be gone, but so might the dream of a New Year’s Day bowl…..

Both Irish losses this season have come vs true frosh QB’s….

Penn St has scored just 69 pts in their 5 game losing streak in Ann Arbor. Paterno on Michigan Stadium: “I don’t think it’s a particularly tough place to play.” ….

Indiana hasn’t won in Evanston in 16 years, and the Hoosiers haven’t won back-to-back Big Ten games in October since the 2006 season….

The second straight road game for the Hawkeyes, who have won seven of the last 11 meetings in this series….

Michigan State has won three straight in the Big Ten after starting the season 1-3….

The Buckeyes have won the last six meetings vs Minnesota….

Pittsburgh is trying to go 7-1 for the first time since 1982, when Dan Marino was the QB. To do that, Wannstedt said the Panthers must contain Daniels….

“It was refreshing to get back,” USF coach Leavitt said. “We practiced hard and we’ll put this behind us. I like the way we practiced and we’ll be ready for Pittsburgh.” Leavitt is 59-46 on television, including 11-1 on ESPN Regional, and 2-3 in weather 50 degrees or lower….

West Virginia will honor Connecticut CB Jasper Howard with #6 on their helmets and the 2 teams will have a moment of silence at midfield. Stewart said the gameplan will not change with Smith at QB, Smith did miss 6-8 weeks from June 10 with foot injury. “This is all about Jasper Howard, about having a fallen brother, about his successful and youthful life.” — WVU Coach Bill Stewart….

Connecticut HC Edsall said one of my sons was taken away, nothing in my job description says i have to identify bodies. Edsall not prepared with how to deal with the death, spoke to USF Leavitt who has had 3 players death since 2001…

Cincinnati’s # 5 ranking in the BCS standings is the highest for a Big East team since West Virginia was ranked #2 on Nov. 25, 2007….

Louisville had won five consecutive games in the series before Cincinnati 28-20 victory last year….

Questions have risen if Cincinnati runs the table, should they be held out of title game. Kelly says if our name was WV, Syracuse or Pitt we wouldn’t be having this conversation….

After a 2-2 start, Syracuse can be found in the conference cellar…

All but guaranteed a losing season, Akron HC Brookhart will not take the RS off anymore players…

Toledo takes on  Temple, the first MAC meeting and Temple, looking for their fifth straight victory and another step toward its first bowl game in 30 years, come in as a 3 pt dog….

Central Michigan’s Dan LeFevour and Bowling Green’s Tyler Sheehan have thrown for over 4,800 yards with 28 TD’s already this season and rushed for 12 scores….

Buffalo is looking for its first ever win over Western Michigan. The Bulls are 0-4 all time against the Broncos….

Kent State can move into a 1st place tie in the MAC East with a win if Buffalo loses to Toledo….

The RedHawks are home for only the second time this year and have been outscored 248-71 in dropping the first seven games….

Central Michigan has trouble winning at Bowling Green, losing 8 of their last 9 games at Doyt Perry Stadium….

Western Michigan lost its top two WR’s in the game against Central Michigan. Juan Nunez and Jordan White both suffered sprained ankles and are questionable….

The Eagles have won the last six meetings vs Notre Dame….

Georgia Tech has lost eight straight times in Charlottesville….

This is the first time Maryland has faced Duke since 2004, and the first time the teams have met since the ACC expanded to 12 teams before the 2005 season…..

Miami and Clemson have met twice since UM joined the ACC, with CU winning in Miami in overtime in 2004 and UM returning the favor in triple overtime in 2005….

Baylor needs to get a jump on a ranked team playing on the road in the homecoming game at Waco. A slow start by the home team would likely mean disaster….

This is the Sooners’ first since 2001 to Memorial Stadium….

Historically, Colorado has dominated this series vs Kansas St 44-19-1, but the teams have split the last 6 games. CU’s last win in Manhattan came in 2005, 23-20….

A Big 12 North Title is still very much in Nebraska’s picture, but the Huskers can’t stumble at home against the Cyclones….

Without QB Robert Griffin, Baylor stands 0-2 in the Big 12 after allowing Iowa State to snap an 11-game losing streak….

The Longhorns have won the last five meetings by an average of 23.4 points, including a 56-31 romp last season vs Missouri….

Texas Tech has not lost at home against Texas A&M since 1993….

Arizona QB Foles set a program mark with his completion % last week vs Stanford as he hit on 40 of 51 passes (78%). He has completed 76% of his passes this year, no other Arizona QB has finished higher than 69% for a season….

UCLA has allowed only 15 fourth-quarter points in six games this year….

Arizona St HC Erickson commented that he didn’t use QB Osweiler at all in last week’s game as Sullivan was playing to well to remove for any possession….

The Cougars –54 yds rushing was their record worst, at least since 1957, which is when WSU began keeping the statistic….

Oregon St’s Mike Riley likes how his team is playing, but isn’t worried about lost momentum with the break. He’s confident because of the way the players practice hard and are able to focus on each game….

Oregon has held 3 straight opponents to 10 points or fewer for the first time since 1980….

Tulsa has allowed 23 sacks through 6 gms, which is 4th worst in NCAA….

UAB’s defensive gameplan is going to focus on stopping Darius Marshall & TE Cody Slate…..

UCF has 4 scoring drives of 80+ yds in the last 3 games & have 16 pass plays of 20+ yds on the season after having just 12 all of last year….

Houston HC Sumlin isn’t sure who will handle the placekicking duties this week. Both Ben Bell & Jordan Mannisto missed PAT’s & Bell also missed a 25 yd FG. Sumlin said they would battle it out during practice & a decision may not be made until after pre-game warm-ups….

Boise St HC Chris Petersen continues to field questions week after week as to where his Broncos should be rated & ranked, and every week he responds with the same thing in a calm voice. “I know there’s a lot of talk out there, it’s something we don’t concern ourselves with, “ Petersen said….

Hawaii starting WR Rodney Bradley is out for the year with a broken leg he suffered against Idaho….

Idado currently has the nation’s best turnaround so far this season (6-1) from last year (2-10)….

Utah State has lost back-to-back games by just three points falling 20-17 at New Mexico State and 35-32 to Nevada last week….

Florida Atlantic has just one victory but haven’t lost in the state of Louisiana in five visits….

Louisiana is 3-0 at home this season….

Troy has won four straight games and three league games in a row.

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Here are my computer’s average individual game ratings for the year for each team and they are ranked in order.