MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL Saturday, December 31st @ 12:00 p.m. Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

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Today’s Blog is an in-depth look at who plays the toughest schedule this year and also some of the flaws in the other methods in determining schedule strength.

At the beginning of the season, the NCAA usually releases a rating of each team’s schedule based on their opponents’ win/loss record from the previous season, This is a good method but it does have its obvious flaws.

The first flaw is basing the ratings on opponents records from the previous season. Let’s look at a couple of examples. At the start of 2007 I had Illinois rated as one of the top teams in the Big Ten and they went on to knock off #1 Ohio St and play in the ROSE Bowl. My ratings had them as an above avg opponent at the start of the year and they finished the regular season #13 (AP). Using 2006’s record as the criteria for determining the strength of an opponent’s schedule, however, you would count them as a 2-10 team! In 2008, I had teams like Ole Miss and Minnesota on my Most Improved Teams List meaning I thought they were bowl caliber but using the previous year’s record you would have counted them as 3-9 and 1-11 teams (both made bowls, Ole Miss finished #14). On the flip side of the coin, Notre Dame was in an obvious rebuilding year in ’07 yet was still counted as a 10-3 team if you based strength of schedule on 2006’s record and they were far from a January bowl team in 2007 at just 3-9!

The second flaw is basing it on pure overall records. If a team plays an FCS (IAA) school that was 11-1 in 2007, that counts as a MUCH tougher game in the NCAA ratings than facing a team like Alabama who was 7-6 in ‘07 but #1 at the end of ‘08 regular season! My ratings had Bama ranked as a much tougher team than any FCS foe. To give you an example from 2002, my ratings foresaw that teams playing Kansas St were facing a Top 10 team based on my preseason ratings. The NCAA strength of schedule ranking rated a game against Kansas St as just a game vs a 6-6 opp (2001 record). Kanas St finished #7 AP for 2002 and walloped their opp’s by an avg of 45-12, not exactly numbers from a typical middle-of-the-road opponent.

On the flip side let’s look at 2009’s Ball St team. They were in an obvious rebuilding year and my power ratings had them only winning 2 or 3 games. My methods gave teams credit for a weak foe when facing Ball St but basing it on the previous year’s record, teams were given credit for playing a 12-2 team which is what they finished in 2008! That is a MAJOR flaw! Read more…

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The college football season is fast approaching and in today’s blog I will give you a sneak peak at some of the early marquee college football non-conference games and how I think they will shake out as of right now. Also included is your current voting tallies for each of these games.

Remember if you visit the homepage right now, you can get a head start on voting in the Non-Conference Poll with all the non-conference games. To see where you rank against other voters, as soon as your vote is entered in, you will see the % stacked with or against you. In the next day or two the four remaining non-BCS conferences will be added on the front page. The Non-Conference Poll will run until Sunday, Aug 29th. On Monday the 30th, look for the Weekly Polls to start. There are games every day Thursday September 2nd thru Monday September 6th as the first week of the season looks to kick off with a bang! Weekly prizes will be awarded throughout the season. Read more…

For the next two weeks, I will be taking a look at the conference teams of the decade for 2000-2009. Factored into my analysis will be conference win %, conference and division titles, bowl games and bowl wins. I will also include BCS bowl wins, final AP rankings and number of national championships for the major conferences. There have been several teams who have changed conferences during that time and I will include them in the analysis for any season(s) they were affiliated with that certain conference. I will also be doing a breakdown of how the conference did in bowl games during the decade and I will emphasis the overall win/loss record, the number of BCS bowl wins, and the records against Non-BCS and ranked bowl teams.

While some conferences may have no-brainers as the top team, other conferences were very competitive over the past decade. Here is the schedule for the upcoming week with the conferences I will be analyzing on each date. Read more…

As you can tell by going through the magazine there is very little advertising and there are several pages that are left out due to space constraints. One article I wanted to expand on was starters lost during the year. (see Football 365 Days A Year Pg 17, 314)

Remember when Oklahoma won the National Title in 2000? Not a single OU starter lost a single start due to injury! My research has shown that teams that benefited from very few injuries, in this case 6 or less, usually have a weaker season the next year.

The bottom line is, teams that have suffered a lot of injuries the previous year will generally have a better year the next season. A lot of backups were forced to play during the injury-riddled year, gaining valuable experience and the team figures to not be so injury-prone the next year.

In a study over the last 6 years, my research shows that if a team had 32 or more starts lost to injury the prior season, they improved or had the same record the next year on 48 out of 58 occasions for an 82.8% success rate. How about teams that are really banged up? Well from 2001-2005 12 teams went through seasons of having 40 or more combined starts lost and ALL 12 had the same or better record the next season. It surprises me that 17 teams met that criteria in 2006-’07 but only 7 had a stronger record the next year and 9 had a weaker record.

In 2008, Utah was at the top of the chart with 51 starts lost to injury and they went from 9-4 to 13-0 and #2 in the country! Last year was another solid year as 11 teams had 40 or more starts lost to injury in ‘08 and 8 of the 11 improved their records (72.7%!). Here are the teams that suffered 32 or more starts lost to injury last year:

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The official on sale date for my 2010 College Football Preview was yesterday and if you do not already have a copy, head out to the bookstores and newsstands today. The magazine is available nationwide at Wal-Mart, Barnes & Noble, Waldenbooks, Borders, Hastings, Media Play, Target, Books-A-Million, K-Mart and Circle K. There are other locations where we shipped to, so check the magazine section at stores near you. The cost is just $8.95 in the stores but they tend to fly off the shelves. If you’re having trouble finding a copy visit our store or call 1-866-918-7711 and order your copy thru the office (plus shipping). 

The past few weeks I have been giving you some advanced articles from the magazine to wet your appetite for the upcoming year. Today I will give you the results of the Draft Day Party Hangover, which is on page 308.

After several years of research I have found that almost 7 out of every 10 teams that rank among the top in the NCAA in players drafted struggle the next year and have a weaker record. I call it the Draft Day Party Hangover Effect. Read more…

In Today’s blog, I will continue releasing my Preseason All-Conference teams with the All-Big East and All-MWC teams.

In the Big East, West Virginia leads the way with seven 1st Team selections led by Noel Devine who rushed for 1,465 yds (6.1) last year. Connecticut returns 16 starters from last year’s 8-5 team and placed six guys on my 1st Team led by Lawrence Wilson who led the Big East last year with 140 tackles (#10 NCAA).

The two best teams from last year, Pittsburgh and 2-time defending champ Cincinnati each placed five players on my 1st Team. The Panthers are led by All-American candidates RB Dion Lewis (1,799, 5.5), WR Jon Baldwin (1,111, 19.5) and DE Greg Romeus (Co-BE DPOY) while the Bearcats return many of their top receivers from a year ago led by Armon Binns who had 888 yds (14.6) and 11 TD’s last year. Read more…

Today’s blog includes all of my Magazine Covers with the exception of the National Cover.

Making a magazine cover has always been a big deal for college players all the way back to the old Street & Smith days which featured the top players without their face masks. Every year I have 10 different covers that I ship out to different parts of the United States so you can pick up a mag with your favorite player in that region on it.

While most magazines break down their covers by conference, I feel my covers separate themselves as I produce special Florida, Texas and Alabama/Auburn covers. Also I am the only magazine that has a Armed Forces cover which this year features all the quarterbacks.

Some highlights on covers this year are two non-BCS players making the desired spot: Boise St’s QB Kellen Moore is featured on the Pac-10 cover while TCU’s QB Andy Dalton makes the Texas cover. Also Georgia WR AJ Green, West Virginia RB Noel Devine and Florida St QB Christian Ponder made a cover for the second year in a row. Check out all the covers below and download the PDF version if you would like a print out.

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The NCAA has granted a 6th year of eligibility for Kent St RB Eugene Jarvis exactly 5 months to the day after he suffered a season-ending injury at Boston College.

In 2007 Jarvis tied a school record with 5 straight yard games (old record Don Fitzgerald in ’66).  He went on to break Eric Wilkerson’s 1988 school record of 1,325 in a season with 1,669 (6.0!) while also leading Kent St in receiving yards (306, 13.3). Jarvis was the first Kent St RB to lead the MAC in rushing since Wilkerson did it in ’88. In 2008, he was the leading returning FBS rusher and missed 3.5 games with injury (missed just one prior) but he still rushed for 801 (4.9) and was the #2 rec with 273 (10.9). Last year before the injury he rushed for 158 yards (4.3).

Obviously this is good news for Kent St and there is no kid more deserving than him. Knowing Eugene like I do, he will come back this season strong and play with a lot of passion.

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