By Phil Steele

GAMES NOTES:
Akron gave Toledo a game. In fact, leading 3-0 they brought in backup QB Pole on the 3rd series and Pole led them 81/14pl and UA took a 10-0 lead with 14:03 left in the 2Q. The drive began when UT was SOD on 4&2 at their 19. UT went 75/6pl and 85/8pl. Austin Dantin hit a 55 yd td pass to Pasquale and finished 29-35-327 yds. UA answered with an 81/7pl drive for a td with 5:44 left, 17-14. UT punted on their next poss but then took the momentum going 77/5pl for a td with 1:37 left in the half. At the half UT had a 295-257 yd edge. The 3Q opened with 3 punts. UA then went 46/17pl but were SOD on 4&gl from the 16. UT went 51/7pl but was int’d at the UA19 but UT went 62/12pl for a td, 28-17 (9:56) then after an int drove 25/3pl for a td with 8:19 left to go up 18 pts, 35-17. UT fmbl’d a punt with 5:59 left and UA went 45/7pl for a td with 3:30 left but UT rec’d the onside kick, got a FD to the UA36 and took a knee.

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By Phil Steele

GAMES NOTES:

Ball St solidified its bowl standing and Ohio’s banged up team kept sliding. The Bobcats missed as many as 10 players due to injury but did only trail 21-17 at the half. Ball St lost their starting QB Keith Wenning who hit 16-20-172. Veteran Kelly Page came in and ran 7 yards for a td on his only play of the 1H and OU did get to the BSU12 with :12 left in the half but was sacked on the final play and did not score. OU got a 58 yd td run by Blankenship on the first drive of the 2H to take a 24-21 lead but Ball got a 68 yd Edwards run keying a 71/2pl drive for a td and OU missed a 27 yd FG. After 2 punts, BSU went 59/10pl for a 38 yd FG and OU went on an 11pl drive for a 34 yd FG, 31-27. Ball, after a 46 yard KR and a 15 yd penalty on a personal foul, drove 38/1pl for a td then after a punt went 65/6pl for a td and after OU went 3&out again, went 77/8pl for a td and turned it into a 52-27 rout with 2:18 left. Page hit just 5-7-41 rushing 4x’s for 34 yards.

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By Phil Steele

Ka’Deem Carey had 366 yards and had 5 td’s. The old Pac-12 record was set by Washington St’s Rueben Mayes on Oct 27, 1984. Arizona was without QB Matt Scott and QB BJ Denker hit 12-14-136 and rushed for 44 on 9 carries vs Colorado. Decker fumbled the snap on the first play at his own 7 and CU got a td on the next play, 7-0. UA went 80/9pl and 64/8pl, 49/2pl for td’s on the next 3 poss with CU settling for an 18 yd FG, 21-10. CU still got a 73/13pl drive for a td with 2:44 left 1H to get to 21-17 and then Denker hit a 21 yd td pass with 1:11 left capping a 79/6pl drive. UA led 28-17 at the half with a 272-228 yd edge and UA again went 73/6pl, 49/7pl, 81/2pl for 3 td’s on 3 straight drives, 49-17. CU, trailing 56-31, was SOD on 4&gl at the UA9 with 2:54 left.

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Last week the Top 25 Forecasts went 15-4 79% and on the year they are now 163-35 82%! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week which added another winner last week when East Carolina upset Houston.

For projected box scores and Last 14 Years Matchups for all of these games, please click here.

#1 Alabama vs #15 Texas A&M

Bama is, of course, coming off the huge game vs LSU although they do only have Western Carolina on deck. A&M, meanwhile, is on its third straight away game and playing for the 10th straight week. Last week the Tide jumped out to a 14-3 halftime lead at #5 LSU but found themselves down 17-14 late in the game as McCarron completed just 1-7 passes for 0 yards in the 2H prior to the final drive. LSU blew some opportunities to put the game away including 3 failed FG attempts. McCarron led Bama 72/5pl in a drive that culminated with a td pass with just :51 left as the #1 Tide won 21-17. McCarron has still not thrown an int this year but the #1 Tide D did give up 435 yards and they will have their hands full again this week vs ‘Johnny Football’ who tore through Miss St’s D to the tune of 440 total yards (30-36 passing!) as the Aggies rolled to a 38-13 win at MSU. A&M outgained MSU 693-310 and had a 36-15 FD edge. Keep in mind, the last 2 times Bama has lost a game it came at the hands of mobile QB’s in Cam Newton and Jordan Jefferson. Still I can’t step in front of the elephant here as A&M’s offense has been sluggish in the 2H of games vs the other two elite D’s it faced earlier this year in UF/LSU.

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GAMES NOTES:

Ohio was coming off its first loss of the year and rolled up Eastern Michigan with a 555-305 yard edge. It was just 17-14 when OU took over with :55 left in the half and went 65/7pl and on 2&10 got a 19 yd td pass with :11 left to lead 24-14. EMU in the 3Q went on a 14pl drive but punted and OU got a 3&5, def pass interference for a FD and on the next play a 79 yd td pass, 31-14. OU drove 44/5 for a td after a 38 yd PR with 5:03 left and got a 29 yd td run with 1:33 left.

Middle Tennessee and WKU played on a Thursday and MT pulled the first upset of the weekend. MT settled for a 19 yd FG on a 73/13pl drive to open and after a punt the teams would score td’s on 4 straight poss. WKU settled for a 29 yd FG, MT on 4&1 was SOD at the WKU32 with :32 left in the half and WKU missed a 47 yd FG on the final play of the half and it was 17-17. The game was tied 27-27 after a 27 yd WKU FG with 6:17 left but MT had a 96 yd KR for a 7 pt lead. WKU went 57/10pl but from the 21 yard line on FD was int’d at the 2. MT on 4&9 ran the ball into the back of the EZ for a safety on the last play of the game. WKU finished with a 438-342 yd edge.

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GAMES NOTES

Giovani Bernard ran for 177 yards and North Carolina had a 485-415 yard edge. Stephen Morris was having a fine game for Miami and had hit just 12-26-155 yds. He had some crucial runs for 40 yds on 7 carries. He was helped off the field with 8:26 left. Bkp Ryan Williams hit 9-13-80. NC led 7-0 when they were int’d at the UM25 then on the next drive missed a 33 yd FG. UM punted but roughing the P kept the drive alive and they would go 80/12pl for a td. NC led 15-7 at the half with a 313-191 yd edge. UM got to 15-14 after a delay of game pen had then go for just a regular xp. NC got a 48 yd FG then missed a 43 yd FG. UM went 48/13 and on 3&6 was SOD at the NC26. Their final drive got to the NC29 but on 4&16 they gained 11 yds with :22 left.

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GAMES NOTES:

Any time the weather gets cold for Miami, they tend not to show up so Notre Dame had a large edge in the unusually chilly temps in Chicago. UM was also off two wire-to-wire gut wrenching ACC conf games and now travelling in a non-conf game. As you would expect, ND had a 34-13 FD edge, 587-285 yd edge and held the ball for 39:08 to UM’s 20:52. Both teams were ranked in the top 10 when they met in four consecutive years from ‘87-’90 with the winner going on to win the National Title 3 straight years. UM WR Dorsett did have 2 open td passes that he dropped and he was also wearing gloves and full long sleeves while most Irish players were in short sleeves. ND went 88/10pl for a td then after each team drove for a short FG, the Irish made a 32 yd FG and missed a 34 yd FG and only led 13-3 at the half. ND went 81/6pl for a td, then 86/12 for a td as it got chillier as the night went on in the 2H. ND went 66/3pl for a td and after UM was SOD at the ND7, the Irish took over with 9:51 left and went on an 8:45 drive adding a 1 yd td run with 1:06 left for the dominating win. Read more…

Here are my projections for games being played on Saturday, October 6th.

I list the projected scores from my computers forecast. Another column shows you the computers yardage forecast for each game. I think it will be interesting to see who the computer picks to win the yardage battle and see if they win the game. In my College Football magazine I have the plus and minus ratings. I update them weekly and then factor in the home edge and I will show you who the Plus Minus ratings forecast. I will also list who Vegas has favored to win each week and we can see how they do picking the actual winners of games. There is also a WEEKLY POLL which you can enter for free each week.

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Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams.
Last week the Top 25 forecasts went 15-1 (94%) and on the year they are 91-12 88%! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week which are 3-0 the last 2 weeks as both New Mexico and San Jose St pulled the upsets two weeks ago and Duke beat WF LW. To get projected box scores for all of the Top 25 games this week, click here.

#2 Oregon vs #23 Washington

Oregon has now won eight in a row in this series by an avg of 42-17. Last year UO had a huge game vs Stanford on deck and on the road only had a 381-278 yard edge. In fact, in the 1H UW had 11-6 FD and 23:54-6:06 TOP edges. The last time here UW only trailed 18-6 at the half. “In the 1H, when we were fresh and they were fresh, we outplayed them, but they wore us down,” Sarkisian said. This year UW had a bye and a Thursday game while UO is playing its 6th straight. The Huskies are off a 17-13 upset of Stanford as they came back from a 13-3 3Q deficit and held the Cardinal without an offensive td. Last week the Ducks led just 23-19 vs Wash St at the half but exploded for three 3Q td’s to blow the game open. No way can I go against the Ducks here at home as they get a 9th straight win over their rival. Read more…

SECOND HIGHEST SCORING WEEKEND IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL HISTORY

This past weekend was the 2nd highest scoring weekend in college football history, with the teams combining to average 60.8 points. West Virginia and Baylor set a ton of records as WV had an 807-700 yd edge. Stedman Bailey would have set the Big 12 record with 303 yds receiving but he was actually topped by BU WR Terrance Williams who had 314. BU’s 9 game win streak came to an end as the teams combined for 1,507 yds offense and 6 rec’s had 100+ rec’s in WV’s first Big 12 game. The most previous points in a game involving a team in the AP poll was 124 set back in 1980 when Oklahoma beat Colorado 82-42. The 19 td’s combined just tied an NCAA mark which was set when Navy beat NT 74-62 in 2007. BU led 21-14 but trailed 70-56 when they got the last td with 3:08 left. WV got to the KO deep and WV got 2 FD and was able to run off the clock

Naturally a couple of SEC defenses like Tennessee and Georgia wouldn’t have had that type of game but they did. UGA had a 560-478 yd edge and Tenn a 26-20 FD edge. Tenn had a few missed opportunities as at the end of the 3Q they missed a 28 yd FG and with 5:55 left, UT at midfield was int’d at the UGA26. UT’s next poss got them to the UGA27 trailing by 7 pts but Bray was sk’d and fumbled with 1:22 left and UT’s final play was an int’d pass at the UGA48. UGA has topped over 40 pts in each of its first 5 games for the first time in school history

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