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Posts Tagged ‘Washington’

Champs/Alamo Bowl Forecasts

December 29th, 2011 No comments
CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL
Thursday, December 29th @ 5:30 p.m.
Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

NOTRE DAME (8-4) VS FLORIDA ST (8-4)

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
NOTRE DAME 107
200
19
2.7
-
100.6
FLORIDA ST
68
200
19
1.4
•••
100.9
This will be the 7th meeting for these 2 storied programs with FSU winning 4 of 6 incl 37-0 in ‘03 at South Bend. In ‘93 #1 FSU met #2 ND in the “Game of the Century” with the Irish pulling the 31-24 upset but the Noles went on to win the Nat’l Title as both finished with 1 loss. Their last bowl meeting was in ‘95 as FSU defeated ND 31-26 in the Orange Bowl. After an NCAA rec’d 9 gm bowl losing streak, ND has won their L/2 postssn appearances by a comb 44 pts and Kelly is 3-1 in bowls. The Noles have been to 30 consec bowls (FBS best) and this is Fisher’s 2nd bowl game winning the Chick-fil-A LY 26-17 over SC. The Irish went 5-3 vs bowl opp outscoring them 29-22 and outgaining them 402-386. FSU went 3-4 vs 7 bowl tms but outscored them 23-19 and outgained 317-313. ND played an ACC stretch of Wake, MD and BC going 3-0 outscoring them 28-17 and outgaining them 422-304. FSU went 2-1 vs same 3 opp’s with 23-16 score and 404-310 yardage edges. FSU went 2-2 on the road while ND was 4-2 away from South Bend. The Irish have 10 Sr st’rs and 17 upperclassmen while the Noles have 6 Sr’s among 16 upperclassmen. By looking at the teams, few gms besides the Nat’l Champ gm can match the talent on the field. The advantage FSU has is that they have a dominant Top 5 defense and is capable of shutting down even this ND offense. FSU’s offensive numbers are lower than expected but remember QB Manuel missed a few gms. ND has yet to face this type of spd on D and with the Noles having a big ST’s edge I’ll call for them to get the win here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: FLORIDA ST 27 NOTRE DAME 20

 

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Thursday’s Bowl Forecasts

December 30th, 2010 No comments
ARMED FORCES BOWL
12:00 ESPN
Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

ARMY (6-6) VS SMU (7-6)

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
ARMY 213
65
22
1.1
91.7
SMU
122
280
26
2.5
-
96.8
The Black Knights accomplished a major goal as they are back in a bowl for the 1st time S/’96 (lost to Aub in the Independence Bowl). The Mustangs were also lacking in the postseason until LY’s trip to the Hawaii Bowl where they destroyed Nevada and prior to LY the Mustangs had not been in a bowl S/’84. They had 2 common opponents this year (Tulane and Navy) with the Knights and Mustangs both beating Tulane: Army 41-23 and SMU 31-17. Both lost to Navy: SMU blew a 14-0 HT lead in a 28-21 loss while Army lost 31-17 despite a 337-325 yd edge as they all’d a 98 yd FR TD just before HT (14 pt turnaround).
Army’s option hit its stride in the 2nd season under Ellerson. They scored their most points in a season S/’96 when they last went to a bowl. LY QB Steelman became the 1st frosh QB to start the opener for Army in the modern era. He was the team’s leading rusher in ‘09 but is #2 TY as they added FB Hassin (originally at AF) who has a shot at breaking the 1,000 yd barrier here. HC Ellerson invented the “Desert Swarm” defense when he was DC at Arizona and brings the same attacking philosophy here that takes advantage of Army’s small but fast players. Army has my #55 special teams but they avg just 7.1 on PR’s and 19.5 on KR’s.
The Mustangs’ Run n’ Shoot offense has been more balanced in each of the L/2Y as they avg’d 27 ppg and 415 ypg and have my #68 ranking. After starting the L/6 (‘09), QB Padron finished his 1st full season as the starter in solid form leading SMU to the CUSA West Title. A year after the speedy Shawnbrey McNeal became HC Jones’ first 1,000 yd rusher, Line became the 2nd RB to accomplish that feat. The Mustang D has my #52 ranking, all’g 26 ppg and 362 ypg but the Mustangs have just my #95 ST ranking led by K/P Szymanski who did miss some time at the EOY (leg) but should be a full go here.
June Jones has taken the Mustangs from back-to-back one win seasons to 8 wins last year and playing for the CUSA Championship this year. This is a great matchup for them as they played Navy each of the L/3Y and have improved vs the option having only all’d 337 yds this year. It is fantastic to see Army in a bowl game but, truth be told, it was vs a very watered-down sked this year. They have not seen this type of offensive fire power and the extra prep time won’t help them in this matchup. Read more…

2010′s Toughest Schedules

December 14th, 2010 8 comments

Who Faced the Toughest Schedule in 2010?

What makes my Toughest Opponents Faced rankings far superior to the NCAA method is that ours takes into account 9 sets of power ratings, combines them and factors in every team’s schedule this year. I did this not only for the bowl teams, but for all the NCAA teams & found out which teams played the toughest schedules this year.

2010′s Toughest Schedules
*Bowl Teams are in Bold Read more…

2010 NFL Toughest Schedules

August 13th, 2010 2 comments

As you know I’ve always spent about 90% of my time on college football but I am very excited about our NFL Magazine. I have the same desire to mirror my success of being college footballs “most accurate” magazine by becoming the most accurate NFL Magazine as well. In this years magazine (which is now available) I project each of the division races with records. I want to share just how much work and research goes into making these forecasts.

I’ve posted several articles on my blog including: repeating as a division champ and slipping and sliding can help you analyze a teams fortunes. These are just part of the research I do annually to make my predictions. The schedule is of course an important part of analyzing the upcoming season. Read more…

NFL Mag Slipping and Sliding

June 25th, 2010 No comments

The NFL magazine deadline is quickly approaching. Last year the Pro Preview expanded to SIX FULL PAGES on each NFL team jampacked with the “Phil Steele” quality information you’re used to seeing in my College Preview. Today I wanted to give you an article that I included in 2009’s preview and updated it for this year.

In my college magazine each year I devise different formulas which look at teams that had good or bad fortune the previous year. The charts show those teams generally do not have the same fortune the following season. I call this method “Slipping and Sliding”. As I noted the last few years in the Turnovers=Turnaround June 14th blog, results have been even stronger for the NFL than they have for college football. I imagine one reason for that is there is far more parity in the NFL and teams are more competitive from the strongest team to the weakest team than in college football. Read more…

Preseason All Pac-10 and Independent Teams

May 21st, 2010 No comments

In Today’s blog I will start releasing my Preseason All Conference teams with the PAC-10 and Independent teams.

The Pac-10 is very balanced this year as nine of the ten teams (Washington St) have a player on my 1st Team. Washington leads the way with five players led by QB Jake Locker. USC and Arizona both have four players on my 1st Team while Oregon, Oregon St, UCLA and Stanford each have 3 players.

Oregon St RB Jacquizz Rodgers and WR James Rodgers both appear on my preseason 1st Team for the 2nd year in a row as well as USC OC Kristofer O’Dowd, California LB Mike Mohamed, UCLA K Kai Forbath and California P Bryan Anger.

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% of Yards Returning

April 29th, 2010 4 comments

We are only 40 days away from the official on sale date of my 2010 COLLEGE PREVIEW!!! It goes on sale Tuesday, June 8th and there is a possibility you could see it earlier than that at your local bookstore.

Today I want to look at the % of yards returning for the offenses. I took all of the yards each QB threw for as well as all of the individual rushing yards and receiving yards for each team. I then took all of the returning yards from ’09 for the percentage. Read more…

Most Improved Rush Defense in 2009

February 26th, 2010 3 comments

In my 2009 College Preview Magazine on pgs 324 and 327 I included my computer’s projected stats in 2009 for all 120 FBS teams. There were several different categories including rush offense/defense, pass offense/defense, offensive pts and defensive pts.

On the right hand side of the page I listed the teams that my computer projected to be most improved in ’09 compared to ’08 season in 6 different categories. I had them ranked in order from Most Improved all the way down to the Least Improved and included the top 15 in each category along with the bottom 5.

In today’s blog I have included my projections of the teams I thought would be most improved in rush defense heading into the 2009 season and how they finished in the final NCAA rankings.

In the coming days I will feature a different category in each blog and I think you will be impressed with the results of the accuracy of my projections. Read more…

Most Improved Defensive Points 2009

February 19th, 2010 3 comments

In my 2009 College Preview Magazine on pgs 324 and 327 I included my computer’s projected stats in 2009 for all 120 FBS teams. There were several different categories including rush offense/defense, pass offense/defense, offensive pts and defensive pts.

On the right hand side of the page I listed the teams that my computer projected to be most improved in ’09 compared to ’08 season in 6 different categories. I had them ranked in order from Most Improved all the way down to the Least Improved and included the top 15 in each category along with the bottom 5.

In today’s blog I have included my projections of the teams I thought would be most improved in defensive ppg heading into the 2009 season and how they finished in the final NCAA rankings.

In the coming days I will feature a different category in each blog and I think you will be happy with the results of the accuracy of my projections.

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What a Weekend! (Week 14)

December 6th, 2009 3 comments

There were very few games this week so it wasn’t as tough to earn a Top 20 spot from my computer’s average individual grades as there was only 34 performances to grade. Therefore, I will cut it off at the Top 14 this week.
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