Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game. Last week the Top 25 Forecasts went 15-1 (94%) and so far this season I am 205-48 (81%).
Last year the Top 25 forecasts went 205-60 (77%)! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week.
#1 LSU vs #12 GEORGIA
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Rushing
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Passing
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Points
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TO’s
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ST
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| GEORGIA |
100 |
170
|
16
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2.6
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-
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| LSU |
170
|
145
|
30
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2.3
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•••
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LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
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Georgia Dome, Atlanta. UGA leads the recent series 6-3 (L20Y). Both tms have been ranked in the Top 20 in each of the L/6 meetings. UGA is the only tm in the SEC that LSU HC Les Miles does not have a winning record against (1-2) but the Tigers did win the L/meeting in ‘09, 20-13 as #4 LSU benefitted from a controversial celebration pen on WR AJ Green which set up their GW TD (:46). This will be the 3rd meeting between these two tms in the SEC Champ gm as they split the prev 2 with LSU winning 34-13 in ‘03 and UGA winning 34-14 in ‘05. These two have six common opp’s TY and have had similar results with LSU going 6-0 outscoring foes on avg 38-7 (+192 ypg) while UGA is also 6-0 outscoring foes 27-12 (+184 ypg). LW LSU capped their best reg ssn in schl hist with a 41-17 win over #3 Ark as they finished SEC play 8-0 for the 1st time (trailed 14-0 w/6:00 left in 2Q). QB Jefferson has now played every meaningful snap for 3 str gms (155 ypg, 66%, 3-1 ratio L/3) and AA DB Mathieu was the star again with 8 tkls, 2 FF, 1 FR and a 92 yd PR TD in the 2Q that turned the momentum. The Bulldogs are also off a key win over rival GT, 31-17 and have now won 10 str gms for the first time S/’82 despite playing w/out their top 2 RB’s the last couple of wks. QB Murray is avg 225 ypg (61%, 32-10, TD schl rec’d) while super frosh RB Crowell, despite battling inj for most of the yr, leads with 832 (4.8) despite only 7 sts. The UGA D has been the story as they lead the SEC in sks (32) which is remarkable considering they had only 1 in the first 3 gms comb. off (LSU #13-15) and def (LSU #2-5) are basically even but LSU has the large ST’s edge (#19-81). This one could come down to the wire but it’s tough going against the Tigers who have met every challenge TY. LSU books their ticket to nearby New Orleans for the National Champ game.
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PHIL’S FORECAST: LSU 27 GEORGIA 20
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Read more…
CAROLINA AT NEW ENGLAND
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Rush |
Pass |
PTS |
TO’s |
ST’s |
| CAROLINA |
130 |
185 |
13 |
2 |
#32 |
| NEW ENGLAND |
140 |
345 |
26 |
2 |
#24 |
Last week was the 1st time since mid-2006 the Patriots lost back to back games. They had their chances vs the Dolphins but were SOD on the 6 & Brady’s Int in the EZ cost them the game. The frustration is showing as Brady called out his teammates afterwards & Belichick sent 4 players home after being late this week. Brady hasn’t practiced yet this week but it wasn’t due to finger/rib injuries & he knows the NE system inside & out so that isn’t much of a concern. What is a concern is NE’s #28 pass rush vs a power rush oriented CAR offense that will try do all it can to help out Matt Moore. The loss of defensive starters like Vrabel, Bruschi, Harrison, Seymour was a big blow to NE’s leadership but I think the Patriots neutralize the Panther run game with offense here. Read more…
The regular season is now over and I hope you have enjoyed reading some of my surprise picks this year as they have been very successful going 83-29-7 (74%) the last 11 weeks. Last week was particularly successful as my picks went 10-4 and here are the results from week 14.
