» week 14 http://blog.philsteele.com Mon, 06 Feb 2012 22:26:04 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3 Week 14 Pro Selections http://blog.philsteele.com/2011/12/11/week-14-pro-selections/ http://blog.philsteele.com/2011/12/11/week-14-pro-selections/#comments Sun, 11 Dec 2011 17:54:37 +0000 Phil Steele http://blog.philsteele.com/?p=5042


HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS: 9-4 LW 95-51 65% TY

 

INDIANAPOLIS AT BALTIMORE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
INDIANAPOLIS 66
175
9
2.0
#31
BALTIMORE 162
235
32
0.3
#17
Including playoffs the Colts are 7-0 vs the Ravens with a 24-9 avg score. IND finally switched to Orlovsky LW who hit for 89 yds (71%) when NE was up 31-3. NE had 24-8 FD and 345-106 yd edges before giving up 299 yds and 3 TD in the 4Q. IND also replaced DC Larry Coyer and for good reason as they are giving up 144 ypg rushing (4.1). Their #21 pass defense is allowing 243 ypg (72%) with a 21-5 ratio and their 109.3 QBR is worse than HOU’s 100.5 QBR LY. Prior to LW IND only had 1 game decided by 7 or less (TB on MNF). IND does have a bit of a situational edge as BAL has a road game vs SD on Thursday on deck. BAL did get a “needed win vs an inferior foe” and while they clearly have the talent edges here and I’ll call for them by 2 TD’s.

PHIL’S FORECAST: BALTIMORE 31 INDIANAPOLIS 17

HOUSTON AT CINCINNATI
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
HOUSTON 130
183
26
0.4
#13
CINCINNATI 94
235
18
2.1
#18
This is a vital game for the Bengals who need an AFC win (7-3) with 2 of their next 3 vs NFC foes. CIN has the #13 and #12 units (-3 TO’s) the L4W in 4 games vs top 8 defenses with an 28-18 avg score deficit. CIN found themselves down 28-7 at the half vs PIT LW due to bad special teams play (blk’d FG, fumbled KR) and penalties (6-80 yds) including a 45 yd pen to give PIT the ball on the CIN 20. Neither Dalton (135 yds 46% 1 TD) nor Benson (52 yds 4.0) were able to get into a rhythm. TJ Yates had a steady game vs ATL LW with 188 yds (48%) with 1 TD. He didn’t turn the ball over and he had 9 FD’s via the air. The defense kept ATL from getting any momentum in the 1H holding them to 6 FD and 123 yds with 4 punts, 2 int’s and a FG. HOU likely won’t have WR Johnson (97 yds 24.3) who injured his other hamstring LW. I applaud Dalton’s efforts so far TY but HOU has the #14 and #1 units (+6 TO) the last 4 weeks with 2 top RB’s and I’ll take the road team.

PHIL’S FORECAST: HOUSTON 21 CINCINNATI 17

 

OAKLAND AT GREEN BAY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
OAKLAND 132
230
18
2.2
#7
GREEN BAY 139
303
36
1.1
#14
This is brutal spot for OAK as it’s their 4th road game in 5 Wks after going cross country to play MIA in 80? weather to 32? here. Both teams are fairly close statistically with OAK having the #10 and #21 units (+5 TO’s) vs GB with the #6 and #28 units (+5 TO’s) the L4W. OAK is a bit thin though at the two units they’ll need to challenge GB here are CB and WR’s. The Raiders #4 rush attack was smothered by MIA LW being outrushed 209 (4.8) to 46 (3.3) which kept Palmer off balance (273 yds 49% 2-1). OAK punted on 8 of their 1st 9 drives (int on other) and were held to 2 of 11 on 3rd Dns. OAK’s is giving up 375 ypg and 25 ppg which is 25th and 24th on the road. GB despite a defense allowing 408 ypg at Lambeau Field where Rodgers has avg 317 ypg (72%) with a 17-3 ratio and a stellar 9.6 ypa.

PHIL’S FORECAST: GREEN BAY 33 OAKLAND 17

KANSAS CITY AT NY JETS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
KANSAS CITY 118
155
11
1.4
#19
NY JETS 157
126
18
1.8
#8
KC didn’t get any favors from the schedule maker to close out the season. This is their 3rd road game in 4 Wks with home games vs GB and OAK. They are off a misleading final LW as CHI was without Cutler and Forte (right knee) was KO’d in the 1Q. The Chiefs won simply because the CHI offense was incompetent. KC held CHI to 6 FD and 85 yds in the 2H not because the defense was dominant but because Hanie was awful. KC has been held to 10 or less in 5 straight games and their only offensive TD in 12 Qtrs was off a 38 yd Hail Mary pass at the end of the 1H which was tipped by Urlacher. They won the yardage battle for the 1st time since the IND game and since then they’ve avg’d 182 ypg (57%) with a 2-10 ratio in the air. The Jets #7 pass defense is the real deal as they are allowing 205 ypg (54%) with an 11-14 ratio and a 6.6 ypa. Sanchez continues to be mediocre with 210 ypg (57%) with a 19-11 ratio which explains how the Jets have been outscored 74-40 in the 1Q. I’ll call for the Jets to win by 10 in a lower scoring game.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NY JETS 23 KANSAS CITY 13

MINNESOTA AT DETROIT
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MINNESOTA 116
203
22
1.8
#21
DETROIT 100
295
32
1.5
#30
MIN took DET to OT at home in the 1st meeting losing 26-23. MIN blew a 20-0 lead at the half as the Lions dominated the game the rest of the way with 15-5 FD and 308-108 yd edges as MIN had four 3 & outs in the 2H. DET will be without DT Suh (susp) and they could be in a very foul mood if they lost B2B games vs elite teams on national TV. They are 4-0 vs teams w/a losing record with a 424-375 yd edge (+7 TO’s) with a 38-20 avg score. Even with the GB meltdown, Stafford is avg a healthy 267 ypg (64%) with a 15-7 ratio at home and gets the #25 pass defense that is allowing 269 ypg (70%) with a 15-2 ratio on the road. MIN’s defense has not made an int in the L/200 pass attempts while allowing 18 pass TD’s. The Vikings let another win escape them in the 2H LW as they let DEN score on 5 of their 7 2H drives after a fantastic 1H. MIN has been outscored 193-101 in the 2H incl OT which is where DET has been its best w/a 206-94 scoring margin. It’s not likely MIN will risk Peterson (high ankle sprain) on the road and on turf in a dismal season and I’ll call for the home team to let off some steam here to make up for their last home effort.

PHIL’S FORECAST: DETROIT 38 MINNESOTA 17

NEW ORLEANS AT TENNESSEE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NEW ORLEANS 123
338
29
1.4
#9
TENNESSEE 131
268
22
1.7
#6
Potential letdown spot for NO off 2 prime time games vs the Giants and Lions. Brees has surgically dismantled NDIV foes avg 338 ypg (70%) with a 20-6 ratio and keep in mind 39% of TY’s receiving yds is via Graham and Sproles. TEN’s #18 pass defense has been decent TY but they haven’t faced a lot of good QB’s. They’ve allowed an avg of 288 ypg (69%) with a 9-1 ratio to Roethlisberger, Schaub, Ryan and Fitzpatrick. While RB Johnson has excelled 3 of the L4W (it’s been vs CAR’s #27, TB’s #29 and BUF’s #24 rush defenses. Hasselbeck has avg’d 141 ypg (57%) w/a 1-3 ratio the L3W and TEN has only scored 30 pts TY vs CLE and CAR. NO is still chasing SF for the #2 seed and I’ll side with the road team vs a TEN team that is playing over its head.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ORLEANS 30 TENNESSEE 14

PHILADELPHIA AT MIAMI
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
PHILADELPHIA 118
225
14
1.3
#26
MIAMI 128
223
27
1.3
#5
The Eagles playoffs hopes are gone after a disastrous road trip to SEA where Young tossed 4 int’s and the defense gave up 174 yds (5.3) rushing. They have extra time to stew but the chemistry of the team is in question after their high hopes to start the season. It’s unknown if Vick or Maclin will play with the playoffs out of reach. MIA matches up well statistically the L4W with the #23 and #3 units (+4 TO’s) vs PHI’s #7 and #25 units (-6 TO’s). The Dolphins also have a good special teams edge (8 vs 23) as well. MIA has won the yardage battle in 4 of their L5 games thanks to QB Moore who has avg’d 201 ypg (64%) with an 8-1 ratio. They have out rushed foes 125 (4.0) to 68 (3.1) the L6W and have only allowed 217 ypg (56%) with a 4-7 ratio the L4W. PHI has lost 4 of their L5 and their pass defense has been poor allowing 253 ypg (60%) with a 10-3 ratio due to bad safety play and CB Asomugha not fitting into the system. Despite the record MIA refuses to give up on their coach while PHI is trying to figure out what happened to their season.

PHIL’S FORECAST: MIAMI 28 PHILADELPHIA 21

NEW ENGLAND AT WASHINGTON
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NEW ENGLAND 87
275
31
0.7
#11
WASHINGTON 69
318
18
2.5
#23
Shanahan has held his own vs Belichick going 5-3. Over the L4W these teams are statistically competitive with NE having the #3 and #30 units (-8 TO’s) vs WAS #17 and #7 units (-5 TO’s). NE is 12-2 vs a top 10 defense with Brady at the helm. They have also scored 30 or more in 9 games TY with 7 games of 400 or more yards. WAS has only had 30 pts in 1 game under Shanahan (33-30 loss vs DAL LY 9 pt AD). They’ve only hit 400 yds four times in their L/28 games and their #31 rush attack (88 ypg 3.8) isn’t reliable enough to control the clock vs the #10 rush defense. There is a concern here with WAS #5 pass rush (33 sks 1 every 11.4 att’s) vs a NE OL down to its 3rd string center as Brady is a mid-line passer. Yes, NE has the #32 defense but they are 13th in pts allowed (20.6 ppg) and 2nd in def ypp and +8 TO’s TY vs WAS -13 TO’s. I’ll take the reliable QB that performs well on the road.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 28 WASHINGTON 21

 

ATLANTA AT CAROLINA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ATLANTA 130
238
24
2.3
#22
CAROLINA 125
245
20
2.1
#32
ATL beat the Panthers 31-17 earlier TY. ATL re-established its power rushing attack with 166 yds (4.7) to ease the burden on Ryan (163 yds 64% 1-0). ATL did a good job by holding Newton to 50 yds rushing and 2 of his 3 int’s came on the L2 Panther drives of the game. After a slow start, ATL is playing at a very high level with the #4 and #9 units (-3 TO’s) vs CAR with the #8 and #26 units (0 TO’s) the L4W. ATL has good matchups with Turner (83 ypg 4.3 five 100 yd gms TY) vs the #27 rush defense with a young DL that has started 9 different LB’s behind them. CAR’s #15 pass defense is misleading as they were dead last with an 8.4 ypa before getting a break vs TB. CAR is also allowing a 18-10 ratio and are only 22nd in sacks (23). The Panthers beat up on a bad TB defense with a backup QB and it showed with just 3 drives going for 50 or more yds. The Falcons were ill prepared to deal with a motivated HOU defense and will be much more focused for this division matchup. ATL is one of the best teams in the NFL off a loss and get the win here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: ATLANTA 27 CAROLINA 14

TAMPA BAY AT JACKSONVILLE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TAMPA BAY 111
188
17
2.2
#10
JACKSONVILLE 148
193
18
1.5
#28
This is just the 5th regular season meeting. Despite being at home for the 2nd straight week this is an awful situation for JAX. They are off a huge MNF game after waiving Del Rio and founder Wayne Weaver selling the team. They also have a Thursday game at ATL on deck. Prior to MNF the Jags have scored 17 or less in 6 straight games avg 232 ypg (+4 TO’s) with 50% of the yards coming on the ground. In his 6 full starts vs a NDIV foe Gabbert has avg’d 161 ypg (48%) with a 4-2 ratio and been sacked 18 times (1 every 9.9 att’s). TB rested Freeman (thumb/bruised shoulder) LW vs CAR. LY Freeman avg’d 218 ypg (60%) with a 12-3 ratio on the road but TY he’s hit for 250 ypg (65%) with a 5-6 ratio.

PHIL’S FORECAST: TAMPA BAY 20 JACKSONVILLE 17

SAN FRANCISCO AT ARIZONA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SAN FRANCISCO 115
198
19
1.0
#2
ARIZONA 102
213
13
2.2
#4
SF won the earlier meeting 23-7 their 4th straight time they held ARZ under 10 pts. SF had 25-11 FD and 431-229 yd edges on a rainy and muddy day with an almost 30 min TOP edge. Gore has avg’d 93 ypg (4.8) in his L7 starts vs ARZ . SF hasn’t allowed a 100 yd rusher in 33 games and only CIN RB Benson (64) has rushed for over 60 on them TY. While SF clinched the NFC West LW they are still battling NO for the #2 seed and Harbaugh already said he isn’t going to let up late in the season. SF has showed no mercy to bad teams TY going 7-0 with a 366-283 yd edge (+17 TO’s) and a 27.8-10.1 avg score. Kolb returned for ARZ LW and had 247 ypg (64%) with 1 TD vs DAL. They are 2-6 under Kolb and have been outgained 384-321 (-4 TO) with a 25-20 score deficit. ARZ had my #4 special teams and have stolen a trio of games (CAR, both STL games) and made one closer (BAL) than it should have been. However, SF has my #2 special teams and Brad Seely is one of the best STC’s in the NFL. SF gets another win in another lower scoring game.

PHIL’S FORECAST: SAN FRANCISCO 17 ARIZONA 14

CHICAGO AT DENVER
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CHICAGO 103
188
16
1.1
#1
DENVER 150
173
19
2.1
#3
Both teams match up fairly well statistically with CHI having the #27 and #16 units (+3 TO’s) vs DEN’s #25 and #22 units (+2 TO’s) the L4W and both have top 5 special teams units. While DEN is 2-3 at home TY but three of losses came under Orton and the 4th was vs DET when the Broncos ran a conventional offense. DEN was held to 1 FD and 48 yds in the 1H vs MIN but rallied for 28 pts in the 2H to take the win. They are 6-1 under Tebow TY and won LW’s game without LB Von Miller. They now get a CHI team travelling with shaken confidence after an abysmal effort out of Hanie who had 133 yds (46%) with 3 int and was sacked 7 times. CHI lost Forte (torn MCL) which is arguably a bigger blow than losing Cutler. CHI punted on 7 of 14 drives LW with 3 TO’s, 2 SOD, 1 FG and 1 missed FG. CHI is in disarray and DEN has all the momentum here and are the pick in a lower scoring game.

PHIL’S FORECAST: DENVER 20 CHICAGO 10

BUFFALO AT SAN DIEGO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
BUFFALO 90
235
22
1.6
#24
SAN DIEGO 127
265
31
0.9
#20
The Chargers are essentially out of the playoff hunt in December for the 1st time since 2003 and Norv Turner’s time is limited. They are off LW’s MNF game vs JAX and have a SNF vs BAL on deck. This is BUF’s 4th road game in 5 Wks and both teams have been ravaged by injuries TY. Rivers has only had WR’s Jackson, Floyd, TE Gates and RB Mathews together for 2 games TY and was behind his 4th different OL in as many weeks vs JAX. SD TY at home is outgaining foes by 69 ypg (-3 TO’s) vs 163 ypg (-2 TO’s) LY. Eleven games into the season SD doesn’t have half (19) the sacks of LY’s #2 pass rush (47) and it shows as they went from 6.4 ypa with an 18-16 ratio to 8.0 ypa with a 20-10 ratio. The Bills had excitement early this season after a 5-2 start but now they are traveling for a 4th time in 5 weeks having lost 5 straight. The Chargers played their best game of the season on MNF and continue to play well here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: SAN DIEGO 31 BUFFALO 17
]]> http://blog.philsteele.com/2011/12/11/week-14-pro-selections/feed/ 1 Week 14 Selections for Every Game! http://blog.philsteele.com/2011/12/02/week-14-selections-for-every-game/ http://blog.philsteele.com/2011/12/02/week-14-selections-for-every-game/#comments Fri, 02 Dec 2011 19:55:55 +0000 Phil Steele http://blog.philsteele.com/?p=5014


Time Game Phil Steele Weekly Poll Computer Pts Computer            +/-
Yds		 Gm Grade Vegas
8:00 PM West Virginia at South Florida USF WVU USF WVU USF WVU WVU
By 3 84% 30-28 428-417 By 2 By 0.2 By 1
7:00 PM Ohio vs. Northern Illinois OHIO NIU NIU NIU NIU NIU NIU
By 3 67% 34-33 495-275 By 6 By 2.6 By 3.5
8:00 PM UCLA at Oregon ORE ORE ORE ORE ORE ORE ORE
By 30 100% By 47-14 543-344 By 27 By 22.5 By 31.5
12:00 PM Southern Miss at Houston UH UH UH UH UH UH UH
By 24 97% 50-25 592-393 By 24.25 By 16.5 By 12.5
12:00 PM Syracuse at Pittsburgh PITT PITT PITT PITT PITT PITT PITT
By 24 94% 31-13 417-273 By 17 By 10.1 By 10.5
12:00 PM Connecticut at Cincinnati Cincy Cincy Cincy Cincy Cincy Cincy Cincy
By 14 94% 29-18 467-278 By 8.25 By 12.6 By 9.5
12:30 PM Iowa St at Kansas St K State K State K State K State K State K State K State
By 17 94% 27-14 367-303 By 17.25 By 8.2 By 10.5
2:00 PM Wyoming at Colorado St WYO WYO WYO CSU WYO WYO WYO
By 3 75% 32-19 429-421 By 10.75 By 2.2 By 5.5
2:30 PM UNLV at  TCU TCU TCU TCU TCU TCU TCU TCU
By 45 99% 50-7 520-200 By 41.25 By 36 By 39
3:30 PM  Texas at Baylor Texas BU TIE BU Texas BU BU
By 7 77% 30-30 434-396 By 3 By 2.1 By 2.5
3:30 PM Utah St at New Mexico St USU USU USU USU USU USU USU
By 10 87% 40-25 454-416 By 12 By 11.6 By 13
4:00 PM Georgia vs. LSU LSU LSU LSU LSU LSU LSU LSU
By 7 95% 30-16 315-270 By 14 By 5.6 By 13.5
4:00 PM ULM at FAU FAU ULM ULM ULM ULM ULM ULM
By 1 66% 35-19 363-274 By 12.50 By 12.6 By 7.5
4:00 PM Middle Tennessee at North Texas NT NT NT NT NT NT NT
By 7 73% 34-24 434-416 By 13 By 4.1 By 5.5
4:05 PM Idaho at Nevada NEV NEV NEV NEV NEV NEV NEV
By 25 94% 33-16 552-265 By 17.50 By 24.3 By 20
4:30 PM Troy at Arkansas St Ark St Ark St Ark St Ark St Ark St Ark St Ark St
By 17 88% 40-17 534-293 By 20.50 By 22.1 By 17.5
6:00 PM New Mexico at Boise St Boise Boise Boise Boise Boise Boise Boise
By 45 99% 57-4 573-147 By 51 By 50.4 By 49
7:30 PM Brigham Young at Hawaii BYU BYU BYU BYU BYU BYU BYU
By 17 84% 35-19 420-365 By 15.75 By 3.8 By 7.5
8:00 PM Oklahoma at Oklahoma St OU OKST OKST OKST OKST OKST OKST
By 1 59% 40-32 532-523 By 4.25 By 2.5 By 3.5
8:00 PM Virginia Tech vs. Clemson VT VT VT VT VT VT VT
By 10 70% 37-21 420-360 By 14 By 5.6 By 7
8:00 PM Fresno St at San Diego St SDSU SDSU SDSU SDSU SDSU SDSU SDSU
By 6 86% 32-24 451-411 By 8.75 By 9.8 By 8
8:17 PM Wisconsin vs. Michigan St MSU WISC WISC WISC WISC WISC WISC
By 1 80% 34-26 395-305 By 9 By 7.1 By 9.5
LW 39-15 (72%)
YTD 569-185 (75%)
]]> http://blog.philsteele.com/2011/12/02/week-14-selections-for-every-game/feed/ 0 Week 14 Top 25 Forecasts http://blog.philsteele.com/2011/11/30/week-14-top-25-forecasts-2/ http://blog.philsteele.com/2011/11/30/week-14-top-25-forecasts-2/#comments Wed, 30 Nov 2011 19:42:55 +0000 Phil Steele http://blog.philsteele.com/?p=4997


Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game. Last week the Top 25 Forecasts went 15-1 (94%) and so far this season I am 205-48 (81%).

Last year the Top 25 forecasts went 205-60 (77%)! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week.

#1 LSU vs #12 GEORGIA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
GEORGIA 100
170
16
2.6
-
LSU
170
145
30
2.3
•••
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
Georgia Dome, Atlanta. UGA leads the recent series 6-3 (L20Y). Both tms have been ranked in the Top 20 in each of the L/6 meetings. UGA is the only tm in the SEC that LSU HC Les Miles does not have a winning record against (1-2) but the Tigers did win the L/meeting in ‘09, 20-13 as #4 LSU benefitted from a controversial celebration pen on WR AJ Green which set up their GW TD (:46). This will be the 3rd meeting between these two tms in the SEC Champ gm as they split the prev 2 with LSU winning 34-13 in ‘03 and UGA winning 34-14 in ‘05. These two have six common opp’s TY and have had similar results with LSU going 6-0 outscoring foes on avg 38-7 (+192 ypg) while UGA is also 6-0 outscoring foes 27-12 (+184 ypg). LW LSU capped their best reg ssn in schl hist with a 41-17 win over #3 Ark as they finished SEC play 8-0 for the 1st time (trailed 14-0 w/6:00 left in 2Q). QB Jefferson has now played every meaningful snap for 3 str gms (155 ypg, 66%, 3-1 ratio L/3) and AA DB Mathieu was the star again with 8 tkls, 2 FF, 1 FR and a 92 yd PR TD in the 2Q that turned the momentum. The Bulldogs are also off a key win over rival GT, 31-17 and have now won 10 str gms for the first time S/’82 despite playing w/out their top 2 RB’s the last couple of wks. QB Murray is avg 225 ypg (61%, 32-10, TD schl rec’d) while super frosh RB Crowell, despite battling inj for most of the yr, leads with 832 (4.8) despite only 7 sts. The UGA D has been the story as they lead the SEC in sks (32) which is remarkable considering they had only 1 in the first 3 gms comb. off (LSU #13-15) and def (LSU #2-5) are basically even but LSU has the large ST’s edge (#19-81). This one could come down to the wire but it’s tough going against the Tigers who have met every challenge TY. LSU books their ticket to nearby New Orleans for the National Champ game.

PHIL’S FORECAST: LSU 27 GEORGIA 20

#3 OKLAHOMA ST vs #13 OKLAHOMA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
OKLAHOMA 173
350
32
3.9
-
OKLAHOMA ST
112
420
40
3.0
-
Bedlam for a 2nd str yr in Stillwater. OU has dominated the series winning 8 str and has outgained OSU in 7 of those meetings by an avg of 476-282! OSU’s Gundy is now 0-10 vs OU as both a QB (0-4 as st’r ‘86-’89) and HC. LY OU was an underdog for the 1st time in the series S/’98 but won a wild 47-41 gm as QB Jones matched an OU rec’d w/468 pass yds. The gm was tied at 24 at the end of the 3Q as 40 4Q pts were scored incl 4 TD’s in 92 secs. OSU left Ames thinking they blew their BCS shot but after a chaotic week realized that the dream still is a possibility with a win over their rivals. QB Weeden (374, 73%, 34-12) threw 3 picks incl the gm sealer in 2OT. RB Randle (1042, 5.8) and WR Blackmon (1241, 12.1, 15 TD) round out the triplets. OSU leads the FBS in TO’s forced (37) before getting a taste of their own medicine vs the Cyclones (5 OSU TO’s to 3 for ISU). The Sooners rebounded to beat ISU 26-6 in a misleading final. OU had FD (25-13) and yd (509-245) edges but threw int’s in the EZ, at the ISU12 and 21, fmbl’d at the ISU20 and ISU’s lone TD was set up by a bad P snap. OU played without #3 rec Reynolds (692, 17.7, susp) and B12 tfl leader DE Alexander (18, shldr) was inj’d in the 2H further depleting units missing future pros Broyles (1157, 13.9, 10 TD) and Ronnell Lewis (13 tfl). OU has had 7 TO’s the L/2 without Broyles. Cowboys are #15 pass eff D (267, 58%, 13-21) while Sooners are #30 (246, 53%, 16-13). OU would like nothing better than keep their rivals out of the BCS party and claim their 8th B12 Champ.

PHIL’S FORECAST: OKLAHOMA 42 OKLAHOMA ST 41

 

#5 VIRGINIA TECH vs #21 CLEMSON
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CLEMSON 95
265
21
2.6
••
VIRGINIA TECH
215
205
37
1.3
-
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
VT is looking for its 4th ACC title in the L5Y while Clem is making its 2nd appearance S/‘09, a 39-34 loss to GT. LY VT defeated FSU 44-33 here in Charlotte sending them to the Orange Bowl and TY may have Nat’l Title implications. These 2 have gone in diff directions since CU’s 23-3 win. CU QB Boyd was off of 2 HUGE wins (1st road start) over ranked FSU and Aub. VT’s D held CU’s off to 328 yds but QB Thomas struggled in his 1st gm on the big stage. VT has since won 7 straight rising to #5 in the polls while CU collapsed losing 3 of L/4 after rising to #6. CU limps in since clinching 3 wks ago needing a FG to beat Wake on the final play (down 28-14 4Q) then were crushed by NCSt. LW Clemson was dominated by SC losing 34-13 and was held to a ssn low 153 yds. SC sacked Boyd 5x holding him to just for 83 pass yds (prev low 204 vs VT). Boyd is avg 278 ypg (60%) with a 28-10 ratio. RB Ellington needs just 63 yds to top 1,000 and FPOY WR Watkins has 1,073 (14.9). After just 8 TO’s in the 1st 8 gms, CU has 12 in the L/4 incl Boyd’s 7 int’s. The D has all’d 384 ypg (28 ppg) incl 187 rush (4.5). VT played its best gm of the yr LW dominating rival UVa 38-0 to wrap up the Coastal. VT held UVa to 30 rush yd, 1.2 ypc (148 under ssn avg) and harassed QB Rocco (4 sks) into 3 TO’s. VT is the only team in the FBS to win 10 gms the L8Y. Thomas is avg 234 ypg (63%) with an 11-2 ratio in the L/7 and at 250 lb is a Clydesdale in the run gm (414, 3.3) to compliment RB Wilson who tied an ACC rec’d with his 10th 100 yd gm (1595 yds, 6.3). He rushed for 128 (5.6) vs CU TY. VT D is #12 in FBS all’g 302 ypg, #9 vs run (99 ypg, 3.1), #9 pass eff and has 37 sks (#8). You can bet VT will take notes from SC’s gameplan. VT met BC in the title gm in ‘07 and ‘08 and after losing to them in the earlier meeting won both, outscoring them by a 30-14 avg. Clemson has the edge on ST’s (#66-98) but VT has a huge edge on defense (#7-63) with exp in this situation and gets past the young Tigers for a BCS bowl.

PHIL’S FORECAST: VIRGINIA TECH 34 CLEMSON 24

 

#7 HOUSTON vs SOUTHERN MISS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SOUTHERN MISS 193
200
25
2.6
-
HOUSTON
137
455
50
1.9
-
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
This is the 7th CUSA Champ and UH is 1-1 tying UCF and Tulsa for the most title appearances. SM is 0-1. This will be a rematch of the ‘06 gm that UH won 34-20 at Robertson Stadium. Cougars had a 443-349 yd edge (+6 FD). In ‘09 #18 UH lost vs EC 38-32 in their last CUSA Champ gm. UH was outgained 557-413 (-10 FD) and QB Keenum was 56-75-527 with a 5-3 ratio. UH is just 3-8 vs SM but the home team is on a perfect 5-0 run. Interestingly Keenum and SM QB Davis have never squared off vs each other (both Sr’s). LY in SM’s 59-41 home win Davis was 24-31-293 with a 2-0 ratio with 111 rush yds (6.5) and 4 TD’s (Keenum DNP, out ssn). LTH in ‘09 UH won 50-43 at home as Keenum was 44-54-559 with a 5-1 ratio tossing the GW TD with :21 left (Davis DNP, out ssn). These two have had 7 common foes TY and UH is 7-0 outscoring them 53-23 and outgaining them 597-397. SM is 5-2 outscoring them 32-21 and outgaining them 449-327. Heisman hopeful Keenum is 19-0 as a st’r at Robertson Stadium. He is avg 394 ypg (73%) with a 43-3 ratio and is #3 FBS in pass eff. UH has a RB-by-committee approach as Sims and Hayes comb to avg 117 ypg (6.5). Edwards has 74 rec (20.2) with 18 TD’s and leads a talented WR corps. SM’s Davis is avg 254 ypg (63%) with a 24-10 ratio. The RB’s have been banged up all yr but D Johnson had a solid gm vs Mem (103, 9.4). The combo of Balentine/Bolden form an underrated WR duo with a comb 99 rec (13.7) with 13 TD. SM does have the NCAA’s #12 pass eff def all’g 221 ypg (58%) with a 12-16 ratio as UH comes in at #16 (209, 57%, 14-16). Both have solid ST units (UH slight #20-26 edge). UH is in the midst of its best ssn in schl history (12-0) while SM has matched theirs (‘52 and ‘88, 10-2) but with a win the Cougars will be the first CUSA school to crack the BCS and remember both of the Golden Eagles losses have come on the road against CUSA foes.

PHIL’S FORECAST: HOUSTON 51 SOUTHERN MISS 27

 

#8 OREGON vs UCLA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
UCLA 162
180
14
2.7
–
OREGON
313
230
47
2.0
••••
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS
1st ever P12 Champ gm as UCLA benefitted from a postssn-ineligible USC and a poor South Div to get in with a 6-6 record while the Ducks are battle tested in the tough P12 North. With the changes in the conf, the two haven’t played TY for the 1st time S/’05 with the Ducks winning LY 60-13 in Eugene (UO’s 1st gm ever as AP #1) where the Ducks outFD’d (32-19) and outgained (582-290) the Bruins. A wk after their 1st home loss under HC Kelly, the Ducks returned to dominating fashion at Autzen as they more than doubled up rival Oregon St in FD’s (38-15), yardage (670-315) and on the scoreboard (49-21). They did get a scare however with RB James (1427, 7.2) as he was inj’d in the 3Q and missed the remainder of the game (expected back here). Knowing they already had a trip to Eugene locked up after Utah’s loss the day prior, the Bruins suffered their worst loss S/’30 (2nd yr of series) to rival USC LW as they were blanked 50-0 giving up 572 ttl yds (1 yd short of their season worst). HC Neuheisel will be dismissed after the Champ gm win or lose and this will be his last game at his alma mater. Looking further into the matchup and you’ll see that the Ducks are averaging 569 ypg at home TY while the Bruins are all’g 454 ypg on the road (UCLA all’g just 370 at home). On the flip side, the Ducks are giving up a surprising 448 ypg in Eugene vs IA opponents while UCLA will look to control the clock behind the RB combo of Franklin (912, 6.1) and Coleman (643, 5.1) as the Bruins avg 175 ypg rushing away this year. UCLA has played my toughest schedule but Oreogn has the edges in off (#3-37), def (#17-54) and ST’s (#4-90). The home team in this series has had its struggles in the past but with UO outscoring their home opponents by a 48-22 avg, look for the Ducks to roll to Pasadena here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: OREGON 49 UCLA 14

 

#9 BOISE ST vs NEW MEXICO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NEW MEXICO 17
130
4
3.0
–
BOISE ST
248
325
57
1.4
•••••
These two haven’t played since ‘99 and ‘00 (Boise won both by 14 ppg). NM has lost 17 str MW away gms with the avg score 37-10. NM is off a bye while Boise beat WY 36-14. QB Moore (#4 FBS pass eff) was picked on his 1st att of the gm for a 29 yd IR TD (1st IR TD since Nov ‘09). It looked to be tied at 7 at HT when Moore threw a 46 yd Hail Mary which was deflected down to WR Miller, who was laying on his back on the goal line, 14-7. BSU finished with 26-11 FD and 479-191 yd edges. Moore is avg 290 ypg (73%) with a 38-7 ratio and NM is #120 pass eff D all’g 232 ypg (71%) with an 18-2 ratio. Boise has avg’d 55 ppg in their home finales the L/8Y and sends Moore off with a big win here..

PHIL’S FORECAST: BOISE ST 51 NEW MEXICO 6

 

#11 MICHIGAN ST vs #15 WISCONSIN
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
WISCONSIN 195
200
34
2.0
-
MICHIGAN ST
115
190
26
2.0
••
LAST 14 YEAR MATCHUPS

Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis. A rematch of the B10’s most exciting 2011 gm as both tms rallied from a 14 pt deficit before Sparty won it on a 44 yd Hail Mary TD which barely found the EZ on the last play of regulation. The Badgers finished with 23-18 FD and 443-399 yd edges. Despite clinching the Legends Div with 1 gm left, MSU kept their foot on the gas with a 31-17 win over NW. Two key 2Q plays gave the Spartans the lead as NW fmbl’d at the MSU3 which Sparty converted into a 97 yd TD drive and MSU then added a 57 yd PR TD to take a 17-3 HT lead. MSU has their all-time TD pass leader in Cousins (228, 64%, 21-6 TY) and rec in Cunningham (1125, 16.8). Surprisingly the run gm is last in the B10 (139, 3.9) behind a reshuffled OL (only 15 sks all’d). Spartans rank #1 B10 in ttl D (267), rush D (103, 2.9) and sks (38). Keep in mind that 6’7” All-B10 DE Gholston (59 tkl, 11 tfl) DNP in the 1st gm due to a susp. After being burned by late long TD passes in B2B wks in losses to MSU and OSU Wisky regrouped in a dominating 4-0 Nov in which they outscored their foes 177-54 and outgained them by 274 ypg to take the Leaders title. After PSU’s early long TD strike UW scored the gm’s L/45 pts as the Badgers had 27-12 FD and 450-233 yd edges. FBS pass eff leader QB Wilson (224, 73%, 28-3) got the early Heisman love but FBS scoring leader RB Ball (#1 B10 w/1622, 6.5, 34 TD) could earn a trip to NY as he’s 5 away from tying Heisman winner Barry Sanders’ FBS TD record (39). Badgers D is #4 FBS in scoring (15 ppg). UW has the off edge (#8-39) while the Spartans have the stronger D (#10-23). MSU also has the ST edge (#61-95) with a 2Q blk’d P TD key in the Oct 22nd meeting. MSU was shut out of a BCS bowl despite finishing with 11 wins incl one over the Badgers LY and look for this one to go down to the wire yet again.

PHIL’S FORECAST: MICHIGAN ST 28 WISCONSIN 27

 

#16 KANSAS ST vs IOWA ST
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
IOWA ST 123
180
14
3.1
-
KANSAS ST
207
160
27
2.3
••

KSU is 17-4 in Manhattan finales with an avg win by 17 ppg. LY ISU held a 20-17 4Q lead but down by 7 saw a 4&6 pass from the KSU36 fall inc w/:13 left. LTH in ‘08 was Prince’s final gm and KSU was +3 TO’s and won 38-30 as they were outgained by 175 yds. ISU is 1-3 on the B12 road TY being outgained by 226 ypg in the losses. KSU is off a much needed bye after they completed their Texas ‘sweep’ by beating the Horns for the 4th str time. The Cats were outFD’d 15-8 and outgained 310-121 but 2 int’s set up scoring drives of 36 and 13 yds while the D held UT out of the EZ on their final drive. QB Klein (144 ypg, 58%, 11-5) leads B12 QB’s in rushing (1013, 3.8) and BCS QB’s rush TD (25) but needed the time off after being unable to practice the wk prior to gm the L/2 due to various aches. Cats allow 124 rush ypg (3.9). ISU had been outgained in 6 of their 1st 7 gms TY by 86 ypg prior to Barnett becoming the QB. In his 4 sts ISU is 3-1 and had outgained the 1st 3 by 126 ypg prior to LW’s misleading loss to OU. In wind gusts up to 40 mph the Cyclones were outFD’d 25-13 and outgained 509-245 and had their lone TD ‘drive’ of 10 yds set up by a bad P snap. OU was int’d in the EZ and at the ISU12 and 21, fmbl’d at the ISU20 and settled for 4 FG’s with 3 under 28 yds or it could’ve been much worse. Iowa St allows 195 rush ypg (4.6). KSU still has a BCS bowl shot and you know Snyder will add a few wrinkles with an extra week to practice.

PHIL’S FORECAST: KANSAS ST 34 IOWA ST 17

 

#18 TCU vs UNLV
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
UNLV 100
100
7
2.1
–
TCU
255
265
50
2.2
••
TCU has 7 str wins. The Frogs’ dominating numbers incl an avg score of 41-7, avg of +291 ypg and they’ve only all’d 4 TD’s in the last 6 gms. LTH UNLV was outgained by 418 yds (just 6 plays in TCU terr). LY TCU won 48-6 despite not getting any sacks and UNLV’s only score came on a gbg TD with :41 left. LV is off a 31-14 home loss to SDSt. The Rebs actually led 14-7 at HT before SDSt put it in RB Hillman’s hands and LV was outgained 391-261. QB Herring went down with a shldr inj and his bkp Reilly has been struggling with inj’s of his own, while the #3 QB Barnhill was playing TE up until a month ago. While RB Cornett did rush for 136 yds (9.1) vs SDSt, TCU all’s just 113 (3.2) ypg rush at home. TCU is off a bye while LV is playing for a 6th str wk, is on the road for a 3rd time in 4W and has lost by 30.8 ppg away from home TY.

PHIL’S FORECAST: TCU 51 UNLV 6

 

#19 BAYLOR vs TEXAS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TEXAS 221
175
30
2.4
•••••
BAYLOR
134
300
30
2.7
-
UT is 16-2 and last lost B2B to BU in ‘91-92. However LY BU came in ranked for the 1st time S/’93 and despite trailing 19-10 early 3Q scored 20 unanswered. The Horns had a 428-328 yd edge and in fact UT has outgained the Bears in each of the L/13 by an avg of 479-236 all’g only 300+ yds twice. UT (did win 47-14 in their L/trip to Waco holding BU to just 246 yds. Bears are 6-0 at home TY outgaining foes by 167 ypg and avg 48 ppg (low of 42) while the Horns are 3-2 outside of Austin TY being outgained by 31 ypg. LW Texas rallied from a 13-0 2Q deficit to upset SEC bound rival A&M. UT was outFD’d 22-12 and outgained 328-237 but used a trick play to get a 41 yd TD pass from returning WR Shipley (out L/3) and added a 58 yd IR TD early 3Q to make it a 2 pt gm. An 81 yd PR set up a 23 yd FG to give UT the lead which they added to moments later after an int set up a 24 yd TD drive. After the Ags hit a FG they drove 68/8pl for a TD with 1:48 left for a 25-24 lead (2ptng). QB McCoy, making his 1st start since Oct 1, aided by a PF pen, led a 48/7pl drive with a key 25 yd scramble which set up the GW 40 yd FG. Since returning from inj #1 rusher Brown (668, 4.7) has had 72 yd (2.6) the L/2. Horns are #8 pass eff D and the only FBS tm to not allow a TD pass of 20+ yds TY. RG3 has an FBS best 22 TD passes of 25 yds TY+. Griffin (concussion) DNP in the 2H of LW’s win over TT but the Bears burned Florence’s RS and he hit 9-12-151 and 2 TD in a 66-42 win. BU had 38-25 FD and 617-444 yd edges with the key play being a 90 IR TD in the 3Q. Bears allow 198 rush ypg (5.3). Horns have huge D (#3-86) and ST (#8-105) edges and have to be insulted to be an underdog for the 1st time in this series which they have dominated S/’94.

PHIL’S FORECAST: TEXAS 35 BAYLOR 31

 

#22 WEST VIRGINIA vs USF
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
WEST VIRGINIA 88
340
28
2.4
-
USF
187
230
30
2.3
-
The home team has won 4 straight incl LY when WV held the Bulls to their ssn low in ttl yds during a 20-6 victory. In their last meeting in Tampa, QB Daniels had 336 total yds off and 3 TD passes in a 30-19 win by USF. With extremely explosive offenses it’s surprising that this has been a low scoring series as the teams have combined for only 37 ppg. USF blew a 17-3 lead vs Louisville LW without Daniels (shldr inj). After a come from behind win in the “Backyard Brawl” (Mounatineers recorded 10 sks), WV is good shape for a bowl game with a chance remaining at a BCS berth (BE automatic bid) while USF still needs a win here to become eligible for the postseason.

PHIL’S FORECAST: USF 31 WEST VIRGINIA 28

 

UPSET OF THE WEEK:

FAU over ULM
]]> http://blog.philsteele.com/2011/11/30/week-14-top-25-forecasts-2/feed/ 1 Week 14 NFL Picks http://blog.philsteele.com/2009/12/12/week-14-nfl-picks/ http://blog.philsteele.com/2009/12/12/week-14-nfl-picks/#comments Sat, 12 Dec 2009 17:16:05 +0000 Phil Steele http://blog.philsteele.com/?p=2277


CAROLINA AT NEW ENGLAND

Rush Pass PTS TO’s ST’s
CAROLINA 130 185 13 2 #32
NEW ENGLAND 140 345 26 2 #24

Last week was the 1st time since mid-2006 the Patriots lost back to back games. They had their chances vs the Dolphins but were SOD on the 6 & Brady’s Int in the EZ cost them the game. The frustration is showing as Brady called out his teammates afterwards & Belichick sent 4 players home after being late this week. Brady hasn’t practiced yet this week but it wasn’t due to finger/rib injuries & he knows the NE system inside & out so that isn’t much of a concern. What is a concern is NE’s #28 pass rush vs a power rush oriented CAR offense that will try do all it can to help out Matt Moore. The loss of defensive starters like Vrabel, Bruschi, Harrison, Seymour was a big blow to NE’s leadership but I think the Patriots neutralize the Panther run game with offense here.

FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 38 Carolina 14

DENVER AT INDIANAPOLIS

Rush Pass PTS TO’s ST’s
DENVER 132 195 16 2 #16
INDIANAPOLIS 113 214 29 1 #30

IND is 5-2 vs DEN including playoffs & will go all out to break the 2007 Patriots record for consecutive victories. Caldwell has stated that he will follow Dungy’s formula for resting players as they will achieve the #1 seed with a win here & they have a road game vs JAX on Thursday. I’m not very impressed with the Broncos wins vs a tired Giants team & a Chiefs team that lacks talent. IND’s defense should be able to pickup a lot of tendencies with McDaniels having been the OC for the Patriots. Colts DC Larry Coyer was the DC for the Broncos for 2006 & will have a personal interest in the game. I think the Broncos get exposed a bit here on offense & the Colts get the win.

FORECAST: INDIANAPOLIS 24 Denver 10

CINCINNATI AT MINNESOTA

Rush Pass PTS TO’s ST’s
CINCINNATI 88 168 14 2 #18
MINNESOTA 104 278 27 1 #12

Statistically the Bengals look to be competitive here with the #18 & #4 units (+1 TO’s) vs MIN’s #5 & #9 units (+7 TO’s). The problem is the Bengals faced 3 teams that are a combined 8-29 on the year right now & they only avg’d 18.7 ppg. CIN will be without its best run stuffing DT in Domato Peko here & MIN will be keen to get the run game on track after Peterson was held to 19 yds (1.5) vs ARZ. I think the loss to the Cardinals was a good thing for the Vikings as it woke them up & put them on notice that they can & will be beaten if they don’t focus. CIN does have very good man to man CB’s but I like the matchup of TE Shiancoe vs the CIN LB’s. I like an angry MIN team to get back on track vs a Bengals offense that doesn’t seem to be in sync the past few weeks.

FORECAST: MINNESOTA 24 Cincinnati 10

ST LOUIS AT TENNESSEE

Rush Pass PTS TO’s ST’s
ST LOUIS 112 165 9 1 #14
TENNESSEE 213 125 27 2 #23

TEN’s 5 game win streak came to an abrupt end LW vs IND as they fell behind 27-10 to the Colts at the half. Young tweaked his knee midway thru the 2Q & he reinjured it in Thursday’s practice & was rested on Friday. Fisher isn’t worried about it as he’ll have Chris Johnson who is 491 yds away from the 2000 yd mark. STL has allowed 120 yds rushing the last 7 games (161 ypg 5.0) & they lost their best defensive player in OJ Atogwe (shoulder) to IR this week. Boller was limited in practice on Thursday with a thigh strain & their patchwork OL could have its hands full vs the Titans #14 pass rush on the road. I admire Steven Jackson who has avg’d 122 ypg (5.0) in his L6 games as he hasn’t practiced in a month due to a back injury. TEN is the better team here & even if Kerry Collins starts the Rams don’t have the talent to matchup though they are playing hard since the bye.

FORECAST: TENNESSEE 28 St Louis 10

NY JETS AT TAMPA BAY

Rush Pass PTS TO’s ST’s
NY JETS 173 80 18 2 #27
TAMPA BAY 104 108 13 3 #1

Mark Sanchez (sprained PCL) will miss this game & the Jets will start Kellen Clemens who is 3-5 as a starter. To be fair though this will be the best OL (26 consec starts) he’s played behind & he’ll have the #1 rush offense & #1 defense to help him out. While the Jets are only 20th in sacks by they do a great job confusing QB’s & getting takeaways. Freeman threw 5 int’s LW vs CAR which cost them the game & while I do see his potential for 2010 they don’t have the defense to back him up. TB is 31st in rush defense TY allowing 160 ypg (4.8) & I look for a rested Jets team to grind out a win & stay in the playoff hunt.

FORECAST: NY Jets 23 TAMPA BAY 16

BUFFALO AT KANSAS CITY

Rush Pass PTS TO’s ST’s
BUFFALO 137 203 23 2 #6
KANSAS CITY 143 180 17 2 #8

The good news is that the Chiefs kept their streak of 155 games of no blackouts alive here. Despite the high turnover under Todd Haley the Chiefs will be very keen to avenge a 54-31 loss to BUF LY which set a franchise record for most points allowed. BUF has been outgained by 116 ypg on the road TY (28th). Their lack of depth at LB has been compounded by injuries TY as shown by their #32 rush defense (4.9). Cassel (84 yds 34% 0-2) was benched for a bit LW vs the Broncos due to poor play & the Bills have a quality pass defense allowing 6.3 ypa with a 10-21 ratio. This is a tough game but I’ll side with the home team smarting off a big loss & watch the improving play of Tamba Hali (6.5 sacks) who is having a good year despite a poor supporting cast.

FORECAST: KANSAS CITY 23 Buffalo 20

GREEN BAY AT CHICAGO

Rush Pass PTS TO’s ST’s
GREEN BAY 116 245 25 2 #31
CHICAGO 83 200 19 3 #10

The Packers come in with lots of momentum having won 4 straight including a nice MNF win over the Ravens. I like the matchup of Rodgers who has avg’d 224 ypg (66%) with a 5-2 ratio vs the Bears hollow #9 pass defense that is giving up a 21-11 ratio. CHI only beat STL 17-9 LW at home which is a concern & I wonder if they had lookahead to this game. The Packers could catch a huge break here as Devin Hester (calf strain) may miss but WLB Briggs (hip) will return here. The Packers are 6-1 TY vs teams with a losing record while CHI is 1-6 vs teams with a winning record TY. Rodgers has only been sacked 4 times in the last 3 games as he’s had the same 5 starting OL in that span (41 sacks in 1st 9). The Bears don’t matchup very well here & while they will go all out to play spoiler the Packers simply have too much weapons on offense.

FORECASTS: Green Bay 24 CHICAGO 14

NEW ORLEANS AT ATLANTA

Rush Pass PTS TO’s ST’s
NEW ORLEANS 117 385 38 1 #25
ATLANTA 111 268 23 3 #9

The Falcons were thumped by the Eagles last week 34-7 as they were without 5 offensive starters & could very well be without them again this week. Compounding matters for the Falcons is that they lost their #2 TE Justin Peele & their #1 CB Chris Houston. The Saints were sluggish after the NE game & they barely escaped thanks to a great play by WR Meachem & a missed FG by the Redskins. This would be another good letdown for the Saints vs a thin Falcons team as they have a Saturday game vs DAL on deck. Howerver, the media sparked Brees by asking him if he wanted to win all 16 this year or rest. Sean Payton also confirmed that the team would go for the record as well & even if Ryan plays here the Saints have too many weapons & remain focused.

FORECAST: New Orleans 37 ATLANTA 20

DETROIT AT BALTIMORE

Rush Pass PTS TO’s ST’s
DETROIT 77 183 8 2 #28
BALTIMORE 129 283 30 1 #5

The Lions are going to rest Stafford (dislocated shoulder) here. I think it’s a good idea as it makes no sense for him to get beat up & need offseason surgery which will slow his development in OTA’s especially since he’s proven himself. Culpepper will start here & he has a tall task vs a Ravens defense that was lit up on MNF but are still in the hunt for the #6 seed in the AFC. The Lions have lost 19 straight road games where they have been outgained 406-270 & outscored 36-16 TY. I am concerned that the Ravens have gotten away from Ray Rice in the ground game but Flacco (259 ypg 68% 7-4 at home TY) gets a lions defense allowing 294 ypg (71%) with a 13-5 ratio on the road. The Ravens only have CHI on deck at home & I think they get a huge win at home here.

FORECAST: BALTIMORE 33 Detroit 10

MIAMI AT JACKSONVILLE

Rush Pass PTS TO’s ST’s
MIAMI 122 208 24 1 #4
JACKSONVILLE 114 260 19 2 #21

This is arguably the most important game for the Jags since their playoff win vs PIT a few years ago & I am rather disappointed that this will be their 9th blackout this year. I like the job that Del Rio has with a very young squad & he has a team with the #15 & #19 units overachieving. They will be without 3 key starters here (WR Sims-Walker, DT Stroud, CB Mathis) here which is a concern. The Dolphins are in a huge letdown spot here after beating the Patriots & have a road game vs the Titans on deck. MIA is shifting to a more conventional offense due to the loss of Ronnie Brown & their WR’s are average at best which helps out the Jags. I like the matchup of Jones-Drew vs a Dolphins team that has given up 130 ypg (4.6) the L8 weeks & both of their Centers are injured & may not play.

FORECAST: JACKSONVILLE 27 Miami 17

SEATTLE AT HOUSTON

Rush Pass PTS TO’s ST’s
SEATTLE 102 188 21 2 #20
HOUSTON 91 300 28 2 #13

Houston hasn’t won a game since TE Owen Daniels landed on IR & without another option to take the pressure off Andre Johnson (8 of 1st 12 pass att’s LW were to him) they are very 1 dimensional. The team is going to play hard for Gary Kubiak as they & the owner want to keep him but the lack of a quality RB is a huge problem for them. SEA has one of the worst pass defenses on the road allowing 278 ypg (71%) with a 13-3 ratio. SEA is 1-5 on the road TY & have been outgained in each game & their lack of a run game with a struggling OL plays to the Texans advantages. I like the Texans at home in a shootout as they get a much easier foe after playing 4 straight AFC South games.

FORECAST: HOUSTON 34 Seattle 23

WASHINGTON AT OAKLAND

Rush Pass PTS TO’s ST’s
WASHINGTON 146 213 20 2 #19
OAKLAND 116 190 15 2 #22

Bruce Gradkowski is quickly winning over the team upsetting both the Bengals & the Steelers in his 3 starts & I really don’t blame them for the loss vs DAL as it was on a very short week. However the Raiders are 6-20 after a win & 8-26 at home overall. OAK’s OL has only given up 6 sacks with Gradkowski at the helm & they have rushed for 108 ypg (4.3) in the span but they lost LG Gallery (back) for the injury & Ctr Satele is very questionable here. This could be trouble vs a WAS defense that has played very well in their L3 games vs quality foes. WAS won’t have Haynesworth here but he missed the DAL & PHI games as well. I was impressed by Jason Campbell (367 yds 71% 3-1) LW & with him being a free agent in 2010 I think he’d be a great fit in Carolina if their coaching staff stays. There is enough film on Gradkowski for the Redskins to work with & the road team gets the win.

FORECAST: Washington 21 OAKLAND 17


SAN DIEGO AT DALLAS

Rush Pass PTS TO’s ST’s
SAN DIEGO 70 253 26 0 #17
DALLAS 109 308 22 2 #3

The Chargers are 15-0 with Phillip Rivers & Norv Tuner in December. The Cowboys are 19-32 in December since 1996. Turner was hoping to get the head coaching job with the Cowboys when Parcells left but was passed over for Phillips who used to be the Chargers DC. Romo played a very good game LW with 392 yds (75%) with 3 TD’s & NO Ints in 55 pass att’s vs the Giants. They lost the game due to an inability to commit to the run, the Giants using a “floating standup DL” & some special teams mistakes. The Chargers will get Merriman & Castillo back here but OLB Shaun Phillips hasn’t practiced this week. This should be a great game for QB play here & I think the Cowboys get a needed win in the end.

FORECAST: DALLAS 27 San Diego 24

PHILADELPHIA AT NY GIANTS

Rush Pass PTS TO’s ST’s
PHILADELPHIA 83 263 30 1 #29
NY GIANTS 100 248 22 2 #15

Andy Reid is 14-5 in December vs NFC East teams. The Giants are one of the best teams in the NFL with their backs up against the wall. The Giants shook up the defense last week vs Dallas & quite a few times they just had 2 down lineman & rushed 4 standing up. The Giants are now a game behind PHI/DAL & have the tiebreaker edge over the Cowboys. The winner of this game has a very good chance of being the NFC East Champ & this is a must see game.

FORECAST: GIANTS 21 EAGLES 20



]]> http://blog.philsteele.com/2009/12/12/week-14-nfl-picks/feed/ 0 Week 14 College Fantasy Results http://blog.philsteele.com/2009/12/09/week-14-college-fantasy-results/ http://blog.philsteele.com/2009/12/09/week-14-college-fantasy-results/#comments Wed, 09 Dec 2009 17:05:52 +0000 Phil Steele http://blog.philsteele.com/?p=2239


The regular season is now over and I hope you have enjoyed reading some of my surprise picks this year as they have been very successful going 83-29-7 (74%) the last 11 weeks. Last week was particularly successful as my picks went 10-4 and here are the results from week 14.

Quarterbacks:

Tim Tebow, Florida-Tebow hit 20 of 35 (57.1%) for 247 yards with 1 TD and 1 int in the 32-13 loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship. Tebow also led the Gators with 63 yards rushing (6.3). The Gators offense had limited opportunities as Bama controlled the time of possession 39:37-20:23. Tebow’s passing yards were actually his 2nd highest of the season. WIN

Colt McCoy, Texas-McCoy hit 20 of 36 (55.6%) for 184 yards with 0 TD’s and 3 int’s in the 13-12 win over Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship. McCoy was also had –20 yards rushing as he was sacked eight times. McCoy’s 3 int’s were a season high as he probably lost his chance at the Heisman. Loss

BJ Daniels, USF-Daniels hit 11 of 16 (68.8%) for 160 yards with 0 TD’s and 0 int in the 29-27 tough loss to Connecticut. Daniels added 88 yards (5.2) on the ground with a season-high 3 TD’s and scored a go-ahead 8 yd TD with just :40 left for the 27-26 lead. It should be noted that the conditions were not ideal for Daniels and the Bulls with the cold and snow. WIN

Top Honorable Mentions:

Case Keenum, Houston-Keenum hit 56 of 75 (74.7%) for 527 yards with 5 TD’s and 3 int’s in the 38-32 loss to East Carolina in the CUSA Championship. Keenum’s completions, attempts and interceptions were season highs. The five TD’s also tied a season-high. Keenum’s 5,449 yards passing this season is the fourth most in a season in FBS history.

Jeremiah Masoli, Oregon-Masoli hit 14 of 21 (66.7%) for 201 yards with 1 TD and 0 int in the 37-33 win over rival Oregon St that clinched a Rose Bowl bid for the Ducks. Masoli added 40 yards rushing (4.0) as he brought the Ducks back from a 9 point 2nd half deficit.

Sean Canfield, Oregon St-Canfield hit 24 of 36 (66.7%) for 306 yards with 2 TD’s and 0 int in the 37-33 loss to Oregon. The 306 yards passing were the 2nd highest total given up by the Ducks this year as Canfield topped the 300 yd mark for the fifth time this season.

Kellen Moore, Boise St-Moore hit 19 of 30 (63.3%) for 272 yards with 1 TD and 0 int in the 42-7 win over New Mexico St. Moore led the Broncos to 544 yards, the 2nd most this season as Boise was balanced with 256 yards rushing as well.

Running Backs:

John Clay, Wisconsin-Clay ran for 172 yards (7.2) with 3 TD’s in the dominating 51-10 win over Hawaii.  The 172 yards were the second-best this season and the 3 TD’s tied a season-high. Clay finished the year with 1,396 yards (5.6) and 16 TD’s. BIG WIN

CJ Spiller, Clemson-Spiller saved his best rushing performance for last with a season high 233 yards (11.7) and a season high 4 TD’s in the 39-34 loss to Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship game. Spiller finished the regular season #4 in the NCAA avg 192.92 all-purpose ypg. BIG WIN

Dion Lewis, Pitt-Lewis ran for 194 yards (4.1) with 3 TD’s in the tough 45-44 loss to Cincinnati. Lewis’ 47 carries were easily a season high as well as the yards and the TD’s. He finished the regular season with 1,640 yards (5.5) with 16 TD’s.  Not bad for a True Frosh. BIG WIN

Daniel Porter, Louisiana Tech-Porter had his best game of the season as he ran for a season high 199 yards (7.1) with 3 TD’s in the 55-20 win over San Jose St. The 7.1 ypc and 3 TD’s were also season-highs for Porter. BIG WIN

Shane Vereen, Cal-Vereen ran for 92 yards (5.8) and 0 TD’s in the disappointing 42-10 loss to Washington. Vereen did finish the season with 830 yards (5.1) with 10 TD’s as he took over the starting role in the final 3 games for the injured Jahvid Best. Loss

Top Honorable Mentions:

LaMichael James, Oregon-James ran for 166 yards (6.6) with 3 TD’s in the 37-33 win over archrival Oregon St that lifted the Ducks to their first Rose Bowl since the 1994 season.  The 3 TD’s tied a season-high as James finished the regular season with 7 straight 100+ yard games.

Jacquizz Rodgers, Oregon St-Rodgers ran for 64 yards (4.0) with 1 TD in the 37-33 loss to Oregon. Rodgers also added 7 receptions for 73 yards. Rodgers amazingly finished the year with 74 receptions (6.9) to go along with his 1,377 yards rushing (5.4) with 20 TD’s.

Wide Receivers:

Tim Brown/Mohamed Sanu, Rutgers-This duo combined for 153 yards (17.0) in the 24-21 loss to West Virginia. Brown/Sanu had all of Rutgers receptions and receiving yards and Sanu added 47 yards on the ground (3.6).  All together the duo had 202 of Rutgers 218 total yards. WIN

Jonathan Baldwin/TE Dorin Dickerson, Pittsburgh-Baldwin had 6 receptions for 113 yards (18.8) with 2 TD’s. The 2 TD’s were a season-high as he finished the regular season with 3 straight 100+ yd games (7 total) . Meanwhile Dickerson had no receptions, for the first time this season as RB Lewis’ season-high 47 carries limited opportunities in the passing game. WIN

Carlton Mitchell, USF-Mitchell had just 4 receptions for 49 yards (12.3) in the 29-27 loss to Connecticut. The field conditions with the wind and snow were not ideal for the Bulls’ passing game as they attempted just 19 passes. Loss

Top Honorable Mentions:

James Rodgers, Oregon St-Rodgers had 10 receptions for a season high 139 yards (13.9) and a TD in the 37-33 loss to Oregon. With the 139 yards, Rodgers passed the 1,000 yd mark on the season.

Jermaine Kearse, Washington-Kearse had 7 receptions for a season high 147 yards (21.0) in the Huskies 42-10 win over California. Kearse was just one of many bright spots for the Huskies as they saved their best performance of the season for last.

Jordan Shipley, Texas-Shipley had 7 receptions for 71 yards (10.1) with 0 TD’s in the 13-12 win over Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship.  Nebraska’s relentless pass rush harassed the Horns all game long as McCoy threw 3 interceptions and the passing game struggled. Shipley still is one of the favorites to win the Biletnikoff as he finished the season with 106 receptions for 1,363 yards (12.9) and 11 TD’s.

Defenses:

Texas vs Nebraska-While after the game, there was a lot of deserved talk about the play of the Nebraska defense, the Longhorn defense should not be overlooked as they held the Cornhuskers just 106 yards of total offense in the 13-12 win. The Longhorns also made several key stops early in the game holding the Cornhuskers to FG’s after Colt McCoy interceptions set Nebraska up with good field position. The 39 yards passing allowed was a season-best for Texas. BIG WIN

Louisiana Tech vs San Jose St-The Bulldogs gave up 327 yards in their 55-20 win over the Spartans including just 27 yards rushing. My computer predicted that La Tech would hold the Spartans to just 7 points and 210 total yards.  The Bulldogs did force four San Jose St turnovers and returned 2 of them for scores including a 96 yd interception return by Tarence Calais.  With the defense almost outscoring the offense I will count this as a WIN.

Florida vs Alabama-The Gator defense was missing one of their best players in Carlos Dunlap but nonetheless was dominated in the 32-13 loss. Alabama rolled up 490 yards including 251 yards rushing as the Tide had nearly a 2 to 1 advantage in TOP. The yards allowed by the Gators were easily a season-worst. Big Loss

No Brainer:

Boise St vs New Mexico St-The Broncos dominated as expected allowing just 191 yards in their 42-7 win including just 49 yards passing, which was a season-best for the Bronco defense.

Upset of the Week: Pitt over Cincinnati

This was a tough loss for Pittsburgh.  It was tied 7-7 early and it was 14-10 Cincinnati with 11:12 left 2nd quarter, but Pitt got a flea-flicker, 40 yard TD pass and after an interception drove for a 33 yard FG. Then they blocked a punt and recovered it at the Cincinnati 5 and got a TD and with just 1:26 left in the 1st half and led 31-10. Cincy WR Mardy Gilyard got a 99 yd kickoff return TD, 31-17 at the half with Pitt having a 232-147 yard edge. Pitt led 38-24 after a TD with 12:24 left but Cincy, after another Gilyard kickoff return, had to drive just 23 yds for a TD which made it 38-30. After a Pitt punt Cincy went scored a TD to tie it, 38-38 (5:46). Pitt went 67 yds /9plays for a TD with 1:36 left but fumbled the snap on the extra point. The Bearcats then got a 30-yard TD pass with :33 left and the extra point gave them the win.

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