» Week 16 http://blog.philsteele.com Mon, 06 Feb 2012 22:26:04 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3 Hawaii Bowl Forecast and Week 16 Pro Selections! http://blog.philsteele.com/2011/12/24/hawaii-bowl-forecast-and-week-16-pro-selections/ http://blog.philsteele.com/2011/12/24/hawaii-bowl-forecast-and-week-16-pro-selections/#comments Sat, 24 Dec 2011 17:02:46 +0000 Phil Steele http://blog.philsteele.com/?p=5087


HAWAII BOWL
Saturday, December 24th @ 8:00 p.m.
Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

NEVADA (7-5) VS SOUTHERN MISS (11-2)
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
NEVADA 208
260
25
2.7
-
 91.8
SOUTHERN MISS
177
265
31
2.7
 …. 89.5
SM is 2-0 vs UN winning a pair of gms in ‘97 and ‘98. The Pack is making its 12th bowl appearance (4-7) and is 2-6 in bowls under Ault. UN is playing in a bowl for a 6th consec ssn (2-4) but did end a 4 gm bowl losing streak LY. The Pack is playing in Honolulu for the 4th straight yr (at UH twice, ‘09 Hawaii Bowl) but the trip to paradise has been anything but as they’ve lost their L/7 gms to UH here (incl LY’s only loss of the ssn) and they were embarrassed by SMU 45-10 in the ‘09 Hawaii Bowl. UN did beat UCF 49-48 in OT in the ‘05 Hawaii Bowl. Normally the CUSA Champ would play in the Liberty Bowl but due to contract issues and bowl obligations, SM will be making its first appearance in the Hawaii Bowl. SM is bowling for a 10th str ssn (1-2 under Fedora who is coaching his last game here) but unlike the L/2Y is off a win. They pulled the upset over Houston (49-28) to earn their 1st CUSA Champ. SM started 1-1 with a conf loss but played as well as any tm in the country for the next 8 wks (8-0 avg win by 21 ppg +122 ypg) and finished the reg ssn with a school record 11 wins (11-2). I think Southern Miss clearly has the better personnel but the Pack will be motivated after recent poor bowl performances. I do like the fact that Fedora is coaching here and I’ll call for the Eagles to notch their 12th win in another Christmas Eve shootout.

PHIL’S FORECAST: SOUTHERN MISS 37 NEVADA 30

HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS: 6-6 LW 120-62 66% TY

 

OAKLAND AT KANSAS CITY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
OAKLAND 142
145
14
2.0
#11
KANSAS CITY 156
198
21
1.2
#19
Remarkably all four AFC West teams are still in the playoff hunt with KC having pulled a stunner in Romeo Crennel’s 1st game as interim HC. It was Orton’s 2nd time TY seeing the Packers & he hit for 299 yds (74%) & no TO’s. The Raiders are playing for their 2nd straight non-losing season after 7 straight years of double digit losses. OAK has true revenge here as they were slammed 28-0 by KC at home prior to their bye. OAK had 6 ints with Palmer taking the field in the 2H for 116 yds (38%) in what was basically his preseason debut. KC is 0-4 in their final home game. They have only won the yardage battle in 3 games TY being outgained by 79 ypg in the other 10. While DC Crennel has a good scouting report on Palmer from his time with CLE the Raiders #6 rush offense get the edge vs a KC team that has given up 146 ypg (4.3) at home prior to GB. The Raiders have big edges in the trenches as they are 5th in sks allowed (22) vs a KC team that is 27th in sks by (23) and OAK is also 4th in sks by (37). However I really like what I saw from the Chiefs last week and I think Orton gives them some stability at QB as they remain in the playoff hunt.

PHIL’S FORECAST: KANSAS CITY 21 OAKLAND 20

DENVER AT BUFFALO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
DENVER 208
123
26
1.8
#4
BUFFALO 125
238
24
3.2
#23
This is a good matchup for the Broncos with their #1 rush attack (156 ypg 4.7) vs the Bills #25 rush defense allowing 131 ypg (4.7). In Tebow’s 5 road starts they have only been outgained by 11 ypg, have set the tempo by outrushing foes 217 (5.0) to 128 (4.4) and are +4 TO’s with a 25-19 avg score. The Bills defense is starting to show its shortcomings as since the Toronto game they have given up a 16-2 ratio and only pulled in 5 sacks prior to MIA (#31 sks TY). Despite their warts the DEN OL had started 13 straight games and 14 of their 34 sks allowed were in Tebows first 2 starts with 6 sks given up in the 6 games prior to NE. Injuries at WR and the large amount of short/intermediate passes have seen Fitzpatricks numbers drop to 212 ypg (56%) with a 6-9 ratio since WAS with a 5.79 ypa. DEN’s #16 pass defense is a concern as they’ve given up a 22-9 ratio but BUF lacks their explosive ability from the start of the season and DEN is also a cold weather team. While the Broncos are off a huge gm vs NE and travelling across country it’s tough to go against Tebow and Co in any situation as the Broncos still control their destiny in the AFC West with the Chiefs on deck at home.

PHIL’S FORECAST: DENVER 24 BUFFALO 17

 

JACKSONVILLE AT TENNESSEE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
JACKSONVILLE 126
163
16
1.7
#29
TENNESSEE 120
240
26
2.1
#5
The Jaguars won the earlier meeting TY 16-14 as TEN was fielding a new HC and a QB working with a new offense with a starting RB that had sat out most of training camp. JAX dominated the TOP by 19:16 with a 73-49 play advantage on offense but only had a 31 yd edge in the game. TEN’s first 7 drives resulted in 6 punts and a missed FG. The tables have turned as while TEN still remotely in the hunt for a playoff spot they are overall drastically healthier than JAX who had 21 players on IR prior to the TB game. Hasselbeck will get the start but the TEN OL has only allowed 19 sks (2nd) and JAX is only 22nd in sks by. The Jaguars will have the extra rest edge after facing ATL last Thursday but they have been outgained 304-233 on the road TY with an 18-11 avg score. Gabbert only has 3 games with 200 yds passing TY with one on the road (CLE) and is avg 135 ypg (50%) with a 4-4 ratio with a 4.84 ypa vs a 4.4 ypc for Jones-Drew. Regardless of which QB starts for TEN they have a better supporting cast on both sides of the ball.

PHIL’S FORECAST: TENNESSEE 24 JACKSONVILLE 14

ARIZONA AT CINCINNATI
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ARIZONA 81
198
20
2.0
#6
CINCINNATI 116
245
24
1.0
#15
ARZ is 1-5 on the road in Dec under Whiz losing by a 31-17 avg score (-89 ypg). ARZ has only played 5 games vs a foe with a winning record (PIT, BAL, DAL, SF) and are 2-3 despite being outgained by 86 ypg (-7 TO’s). They now travel to a cold weather site and while Bengals fans aren’t giving much support (just 41,202 vs HOU) the Cardinals will have to contend with the #7 D. CIN is allowing just 100 ypg (3.7) rushing and minus the STL game, Wells is avg 65 ypg (3.8) TY. CIN also has the edge in pass protection on both sides of the ball allowing just 21 sks (3rd) despite a rookie QB and the Broncos are 6th in sks by (36) with ARZ having allowed 43 sks (30th) prior to LW. ARZ is off an OT win to CLE where they rallied down 10 pts & vs the 1H of the season they are one of the most improved teams in the NFL despite their QB play. CIN also has a good handle on ARZ’s Steeler inspired defense as well. My gives CIN an 83 yd edge here and they are still playing for either a playoff shot with BAL on deck and a rare winning season with a rookie QB at the helm and I’ll call for Benson and the Bengals defense to carry the day.

PHIL’S FORECAST: CINCINNATI 27 ARIZONA 14

MIAMI AT NEW ENGLAND
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MIAMI 138
223
20
2.0
#3
NEW ENGLAND 77
375
33
1.0
#10
NE opened 2011 with a 38-24 win on MNF that sent the first half of the Dolphins season into a tailspin. Halfway thru the 4Q NE had a 514-275 yd edge with a 31-17 lead en route to 622 yds in the game. Brady had a staggering 517 yds (67%) with a 4-1 ratio with 99 yds coming on a Welker TD when the defender slipped. NE continues to be in the hunt for a playoff bye despite a defense that has given up 400+ yds in 8 of 13 games TY (462 ypg in those). While Brady’s stellar play is one huge reason, the defense has forced 25 takeaways after forcing 38 LY and that’s with a beat up secondary. MIA should have Moore back but even after getting a win at cold weather BUF LW with an interim HC you have to wonder how much the Dolphins will have left in the tank with obvious changes coming in 2012.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 31 MIAMI 17

CLEVELAND AT BALTIMORE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CLEVELAND 83
180
12
1.3
#27
BALTIMORE 164
238
20
1.0
#17
BAL improved to 7-0 with a 24-10 win just 20 days ago vs the Browns. Rice ran for a career high 204 yds (7.0) in the game as the Ravens had a 448-233 yd edge. 8 of CLE’s 12 drives ended in punts and only their final drive with the game out of reach went longer than 50 yds. McCoy is 0-8 (26-13 avg score) in AFC North games avg 206 ypg (54%) with a 9-13 ratio being sacked 23 times. Flacco has modest stats vs CLE avg 199 ypg (64%) with an 8-3 ratio with a single game of 300 yds passing. He hasn’t had to do much due to Rice and the Ravens defense which has held 6 teams to under 250 yds offense (5-1) TY. CLE is in its 3rd str rd gm and the Browns are 0-4 in that role S/’00 getting outscored by an avg of 29-6 BAL has a road game vs a more dangerous CIN team on deck.

PHIL’S FORECAST: BALTIMORE 24 CLEVELAND 14

NY GIANTS AT NY JETS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NY GIANTS 68
275
24
2.2
#21
NY JETS 144
213
31
1.9
#7
This is the much anticipated Battle of New York with the Giants having 4 consec wins (31-22 avg score) but Ryan hasn’t been a part of it yet. NYG are in the middle of a 4-gm stretch where they play 3 div rivals but need every win they can get while the Jets are playing their 4th str NDIV foe. Sanchez hasn’t impressed vs teams with a top 10 pass rush going 2-3 avg 248 ypg (55%) with a 5-4 ratio and just a 6.36 ypa with 13 sacks. Injuries to his RB’s/WR’s/OL ave offset the fact that Manning has only faced 3 top 10 defenses TY (WAS, SF, DAL) and he’s avg’d 316 ypg (62%) with an 11-6 ratio (2 ints off tips) with a very impressive 8.57 ypa at home TY. Both tms need a win for their playoff hopes and despite coming off a brutal 6 gm stretch before WAS the NYG under Coughlin tend to play their best when their backs are against the wall and get the win here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NY GIANTS 27 NY JETS 20

MINNESOTA AT WASHINGTON
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MINNESOTA 130
158
20
2.1
#20
WASHINGTON 105
238
31
2.4
#25
The Vikings beat the Redskins 17-13 LY in Leslie Frazier’s debut as a HC. Peterson missed most of the game with an ankle sprain but MIN still outrushed WAS 137 (3.6) to 29 (2.2). After WAS opening drive went 83 yds for a TD their next 8 drives combined for 70 yds with 5 punts, 1 int, 1 FG and end of half. The Vikings are playing for Peterson to get his 5th 1000 yd rushing season & to get some quality snaps for Ponder for 2012. They haven’t made an Int since Wk 5 (25-0 ratio!!!!) & are allowing 29.9 ppg on the road TY. WAS is avg 349 ypg & 20.8 ppg in Grossman’s 10 full games which would avg out to the #14 offense despite one of the ugliest OL’s in the NFL. You have to wonder where the Vikings are physically coming off a stretch of playing 6 str playoff caliber teams. Both tms are building for the future and the only thing at stake here is draft positioning come April.

PHIL’S FORECAST: WASHINGTON 24 MINNESOTA 20

 

TAMPA BAY AT CAROLINA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TAMPA BAY 107
195
19
3.4
#14
CAROLINA 190
230
35
1.5
#32
The Panthers devastated the Bucs 38-19 who were without QB Freeman (shoulder bruise) just 20 days ago. CAR had a 366-223 yd edge mid-4Q with a 38-12 lead before they let TB go 65/8pl in garbage time. CAR was in full press to boost Newton’s Rookie of the Year chances as he had 4 TD’s with 3 on the ground. CAR had a 163 (4.2) to 78 (2.9) rush edge with 45 of TB’s yards coming off #2 QB Josh Johnson. While CAR’s defensive front 7 has been wrecked by injuries, the offense has had only 1 player (RT Otah) land on IR and his injury history LY had CAR prepared. Aside from Shockey (ribs) missing 1 game they have had their most complete set of players all year. Meanwhile TB’s defense is beat up esp on the DL and their LB’s are still young. On off the WR’s have been disappointing and beaten up Freeman has taken a step back. The winner of this game will most likely finish out of the Div basement which would be a huge step for a CAR tm that came into the ssn with low expectations.

PHIL’S FORECAST: CAROLINA 34 TAMPA BAY 17

ST LOUIS AT PITTSBURGH
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ST LOUIS 77
158
3
3.1
#30
PITTSBURGH 176
228
26
0.9
#16
This is the Rams 3rd road game in 4 Wks where they have gone 1-5. Minus the NO upset they have been outgained 351-242 (-5 TO’s) in gms vs winning foes with a 30-7 avg score. The Rams were forced to use Kellen Clemens who was signed off the street the week prior vs CIN. He did quite well actually with 229 yds (69%) w/a TD despite not knowing the playbook. Now he travels vs a PIT team that is playing for seeding in the AFC. While STL secondary has seen 10 CB’s sent to IR TY foes are running at will on the Rams who gave up 166 ypg (4.7). PIT have outgained foes 9 straight prior to SF by a 377-276 margin but with Roethlisberger hurting this may not be the blowout many would have thought prior to last week

PHIL’S FORECAST: PITTSBURGH 27 ST LOUIS 13

SAN DIEGO AT DETROIT
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SAN DIEGO 122
255
31
1.5
#24
DETROIT 90
353
24
1.3
#26
SD is 17-2 SU/14-5 ATS in Dec with a 31-16 avg score under Turner which is when they play their best football. SD is 1-6 vs foes with a winning record (-11 ypg) due to -10 TO’s with a 29-23 scoring deficit. Rivers has had to deal with a piecemeal OL and hasn’t known who his skill players are on a weekly basis. Still, vs those winning foes he’s avg’d a decent 276 ypg (58%) with a 13-11 ratio (19 sks). Yes, there is a concern vs a DET team with playoff need and their stout front 7 vs the SD OL but the Chargers skill players will be getting healthier. Stafford has a tough matchup vs SD’s #7 pass defense that has a 22-14 ratio TY vs 18-16 for all of LY. SD has veterans in all of the key places, are playing to keep Turner, get into the playoffs and I’ll take their experience in big games vs a young and overly aggressive Lions team.

PHIL’S FORECAST: SAN DIEGO 31 DETROIT 24

SAN FRANCISCO AT SEATTLE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SAN FRANCISCO 112
170
19
1.8
#1
SEATTLE 91
210
21
1.9
#9
The home team improved to 5-0 when SF beat SEA 33-17 in the season opener. SF had a 19-17 lead after a 55 yd TD pass by Jackson with 3:56 left. Ginn then returned the KO 102 yds for a TD, forced SEA to go 3&out then Ginn returned a punt 55 yds to put it out of reach. SF had a 128-37 yd edge as SEA had 5 punts and 2 TO’s in the 1H. Harbaugh is 3-1 vs Carroll and while this is personal for both coaches, SF has big edges in terms of talent and health all over the field. SEA does have the situational edge at home with SF off a tough physical game vs PIT on MNF. SF is +61 yds and an astounding +20 TO’s vs foes with a losing record but expect the Seahawks and their crowd to give maximum effort.

PHIL’S FORECAST: SAN FRANCISCO 20 SEATTLE 17

PHILADELPHIA AT DALLAS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
PHILADELPHIA 128
205
26
2.0
#28
DALLAS 122
253
24
1.8
#22
PHI blasted DAL 34-7 off their bye week. PHI had a 495-267 yd edge and dominated the clock (+24:18) on the ground with a 239 (6.3) to 85 (8.5) yd edge. DAL was held to 5 punts and an int on their first 6 drives while PHI had 4 TD’s and 2 FG’s. While PHI has been on the wrong side of the TO battle in 7 games TY they have won the yardage battle in 10 games with 7 games over 400 yds. PHI keeps lingering around the NFC playoff chase & destroyed the Jets 45-19 beating them with a balanced gameplan (33 runs/23 pass). DAL has extra rest off LW’s Thur Nite game vs TB but they no longer have RB Murray (brkn ankle) to balance out the offense. DAL Garrett who has struggled with in game decisions and clock management. While this is a key div game for them they have the rematch vs the Giants on deck and I’ll call for the home team by 2 FG’s here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: DALLAS 28 PHILADELPHIA 21
]]> http://blog.philsteele.com/2011/12/24/hawaii-bowl-forecast-and-week-16-pro-selections/feed/ 0 Week 16 NFL Picks http://blog.philsteele.com/2009/12/27/week-16-nfl-picks/ http://blog.philsteele.com/2009/12/27/week-16-nfl-picks/#comments Sun, 27 Dec 2009 18:55:12 +0000 Phil Steele http://blog.philsteele.com/?p=2376


Here are my selections for this week’s NFL Action:

Seattle at Green Bay

TEAM RUSHING PASSING POINTS TO’S ST
SEATTLE 89 213 16 3 #18
GREEN BAY 147 310 35 0 #3

Including playoffs this is the 4th straight season with a meeting between the teams. In their last meeting Green Bay went into Seattle and beat them 27-17. Green Bay had a 313-177 yard edge vs a very depleted Seattle team that started its #3 quarterback due to injuries. Seattle had a 17-3 lead when the Packers scored 24 unanswered points then allowed a garbage TD late in the 4th quarter. Green Bay QB Rodgers had 208 yards (70%) with 2 TD’s. Green Bay’s #2 rush defense which is allowing 89 yards per game (3.9 ypc) at home this year vs weak Seattle rush attack. Rodgers has averaged 269 yards per game (66%) with a 13-3 ratio at home this year and has only been sacked 6 times in the last four games prior to Pittsburgh. Seattle’s #16 pass rush has been balanced this year pulling in 12 sacks on the road but are allowing 290 yards per game (71%) with a 15-4 ratio on the road. Seattle has been outgained by 138 yards per game in the 4 games prior to Tampa Bay as their defense wears down & defenses have figured out how to expose the offensive line. Green Bay has lots to play for as they want the #5 seed, have a road trip to Arizona on deck & Seattle simply doesn’t travel well with their only road win this year being vs a St Louis team that started Boller.

PHIL’S FORECAST: GREEN BAY 27 Seattle 10


Houston at Miami

TEAM RUSHING PASSING POINTS TO’S ST
HOUSTON 52 323 20 2 #14
MIAMI 145 228 24 2 #7

This game means a lot to both as Houston players want to keep Kubiak & the Dolphins may have an outside shot at the playoffs. This is the 4th meeting between the teams & last year Houston beat the Dolphins 29-28 at home. Houston did overcame 4 turnovers in the game with a 485-370 yard edge as Schaub ran for the game winning TD on 4th & goal with :07 left. Houston rebounded from a devastating 4 game losing streak and beat Seattle 2 weeks ago. Remember this team has been 8-8 each of the last 2 seasons and still plays hard down the stretch winning 5 of 7.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Houston 28 MIAMI 24

Buffalo at Atlanta

TEAM RUSHING PASSING POINTS TO’S ST
BUFFALO 99 173 12 1 #4
ATLANTA 150 178 18 2 #8

This is the Falcons 4th home game in 5 weeks but they have a road game vs Tampa Bay on deck. Matt Ryan will get the start despite battling a turf toe injury the past few weeks and he could have a solid day vs poor run defense & TE Gonzalez is a great matchup vs a depleted Buffalo LB unit. Atlanta has a poor pass defense/pass rush that could struggle vs Buffalo WR’s. Atlanta head coach Smith has preached taking care of your home field and despite still being 12-3 at home they are off back to back home losses as both Ryan & Turner missed the Philadelphia & New Orleans games. The Falcons have played well at home this year and a big win in their home finale will be motivation. The Bills offense is averaging just 265 yards per game on the road and have topped the 300 yard barrier just once. This is the Bills 3rd game away from home in 4 weeks sandwiched by a pair of marquee home games vs New England & the potentially undefeated Colts and this is not their spot. Buffalo’s rush defense has surrendered 190 yards per game & 5.2 yards per carry the last 11 games as Atlanta takes care of business in their home finale.

PHIL’S FORECAST: ATLANTA 27 Buffalo 10

Oakland at Cleveland

TEAM RUSHING PASSING POINTS TO’S ST
OAKLAND 148 185 18 1 #20
CLEVELAND 178 143 20 2 #2

This is the 5th meeting in 7 years with the Raiders going 3-1. This however will be the 1st cold weather meeting in the series. Oakland will start QB Charlie Fry who was the QB of the Browns a few years ago while the Browns will start Derek Anderson who replaces the injured Quinn. The Browns deserve credit for a huge Thursday Night win in their last home game as they played without 6 defensive starters and held Pittsburgh to 216 yards and just 3 of 14 on 3rd downs. The difference is that this team now is expected to win this game and have won their last two games. This game will be very close with both backup QB’s playing.

PHIL’S FORECAST: CLEVELAND by 1

Kansas City at Cincinnati

TEAM RUSHING PASSING POINTS TO’S ST
KANSAS CITY 76 163 13 2 #15
CINCINNATI 211 210 31 2 #22

Cincinnati beat Kansas City 17-7 last year as the Chiefs with a very young & beat up roster already had the cars packed & ready to go into the offseason. Cincy had a 13-0 lead, 17-2 first down & 239-50 yard edges with a beat up offense at the end of the 1st half. Cincinnati then played ball control in the 2nd half & the Chiefs scored on a 91 yd/11play drive on their final possession in garbage time. The Bengals have a massive edge with their #6 run game vs the Chiefs #28 run defense that has allowed 148 yards per game (4.5 ypc). Kansas City has a road game vs Denver on deck while Cincinnati finds itself in a potentially meaningful game next week vs the Jets to find out if they are the #3 or #4 seed. The Bengals have topped 23 points only once in 13 games but their defense is one of the best.

PHIL’S FORECAST: CINCINNATI by 7

Carolina at NY Giants

TEAM RUSHING PASSING POINTS TO’S ST
CAROLINA 128 195 24 1 #32
NY GIANTS 121 210 21 3 #17

Last year at this time the talk was about how the Panthers & Giants were competing for the #1 seed in the NFC. Now the Panthers are out of the playoffs due to injuries, poor QB play & a lack of depth & talent in the receiving game. The Giants need to win their final two games and will need Dallas and Philadelphia to lose. Last year the Giants powered their way to a 34-28 win in a game with 40 mph winds. The Giants had a 459-343 yard edge as they put on a rushing clinic with 301 yards (7.3 ypc) vs 158 (4.5 ypc) on the ground. Carolina HC Fox insists his players finish the season properly but the Giants fighting for their playoff lives get the close win.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NY GIANTS by 1

Tampa Bay at New Orleans

TEAM RUSHING PASSING POINTS TO’S ST
TAMPA BAY 95 180 14 3 #1
NEW ORLEANS 141 295 31 2 #26

Earlier this season New Orleans was +4 in turnovers which led to a 38-7 Saints win as they finished with a 370-219 yard edge. Tampa is clearly looking ahead to next season going with rookie Freeman at QB while also making a Defensive Coordinator change and Head Coach Morris taking over those duties. Freeman will now be making his 7th start but despite allowing him to throw more he’s struggled reading defense and is completing just 52% in the 1st half of games completing many throws late with teams in prevent. The QB problems have directly correlated to the scoreboard as they averaged just 8 points per game the last four weeks. With New Orleans off of the Dallas loss and having a road game at Carolina on deck (lost both to Panthers last year) this should be closer than the first meeting but the Saints will still win comfortably as they lock up home field advantage.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ORLEANS by 17

Jacksonville at New England

TEAM RUSHING PASSING POINTS TO’S ST
JACKSONVILLE 94 203 13 2 #21
NEW ENGLAND 125 293 28 1 #27

Including the playoffs this is the 5th meeting in 7 years with New England being 4-0 in the series. Brady has edge with Moss/Welker vs a poor Jags pass defense but Jags have edge with Jones-Drew vs Patriots rush defense. What has always been perceived as the “model franchise” the Patriots are now having to deal with internal strife and player dissension. Winning used to soften those issues but after dropping back to back games to New Orleans & Miami they did rebound vs Carolina and Buffalo but still do not have anything locked up. Jacksonville already failed one test as at home vs the Dolphins and they not only lost but were outgained 354-217 and outfirstdowne’d 22-10. New England meanwhile has beaten just one team (NY Jets) by over 10 points in the last 6 games in the 5 close games they’ve only outgained their opponents by 32 yards per game so this game could be closer than expected.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND by 10

Baltimore at Pittsburgh

TEAM RUSHING PASSING POINTS TO’S ST
BALTIMORE 105 208 26 1 #6
PITTSBURGH 101 177 18 2 #30

The Steelers got a last second win last week and are still fighting for their playoff lives. Baltimore is off back to back home wins but taking to the division road is another matter. If you look at the Ravens other 2 division road games this year they gained only 274 yards & 14 FD’s in Cleveland while gaining 215 yards & 16 FD’s in Cincinnati. I’ll call for the Steelers by a field goal as they keep their playoff hope alive.

PHIL’S FORECAST: PITTSBURGH by 3

Denver at Philadelphia

TEAM RUSHING PASSING POINTS TO’S ST
DENVER 96 198 17 2 #12
PHILADELPHIA 143 214 31 2 #25

Denver had a 2 game win streak snapped at Indianapolis but they did battle finishing with a 357-312 yard edge two weeks ago. They now travel for a 3rd time in 4 weeks and this game is sandwiched between a pair of division home games. Meanwhile Philadelphia can wrap up the division by winning their remaining two games. However, The Eagles are a team which haven’t been able to gel with major injuries on the offensive side of the ball and do have Dallas on deck. Denver continues to play hard for their fiery HC McDaniels and has outgained opponents by 45 yards per game on the road. Pressure in December come playoff time makes teams play more conservatively and I’ll call for Denver QB Orton who has done what has been asked by throwing no interceptions in 7 games and throwing over 1 interception just once this year to be able to keep it within a TD.

PHIL’S FORECAST: PHILADELPHIA by 7

St Louis at Arizona

TEAM RUSHING PASSING POINTS TO’S ST
ST LOUIS 123 160 10 2 #9
ARIZONA 137 260 27 2 #3

The Cardinals keep appearing as the team no one wants to face as their defense continues to improve especially in stopping the run. The Cardinals are off a 2 game road trip and have wrapped up the division but WR Fitzgerald has vowed that they would be more focused than last year where the Cardinals lost to Minnesota & New England by a combined 82-21 in weeks 15 & 16. St Louis was mauled two weeks ago at Tennessee losing 47-7 and have lost 6 straight. The Rams went to Keith Null at QB and may be looking at him here to see if he is a potential backup QB. That would spell trouble against a Cardinals defense that has had at least 3 sacks in 5 straight games & has had 4 or more sacks in 6 games this year. In the last four games the Cardinals have had 100+ yard rushing they are averaging 436 yards per game and they will be able to run over a Rams defense that has allowed 161 yards per game the last 8 weeks. Earlier this year Arizona finished with a 444-314 yard edge against the Rams and get the big win here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: ARIZONA by 17

Detroit at San Francisco

TEAM RUSHING PASSING POINTS TO’S ST
DETROIT 86 173 11 2 #29
SAN FRANCISCO 139 263 30 2 #13

Detroit were outgained 548-229 against the Ravens two weeks as The Lions lost RB Smith to a knee injury vs and when a losing team that already is without their starting QB sees its top offensive rushing weapon lost for the year it is tough to play motivated football. San Francisco is off a tough 3 game stretch having hosted Arizona and Minnesota then traveling to Philly last week. They are however in their home finale and with Singletary roaming the sidelines the only way for them to finish would be with a win. The first step is to learn to win which they did last year and this season they’ve also become accustomed to winning at home with big wins of 23-10, 35-0 & 20-3. The 49ers should win comfortably here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: SAN FRANCISCO by 14

NY Jets at Indianapolis

TEAM RUSHING PASSING POINTS TO’S ST
NY JETS 143 175 16 2 #24
INDIANAPOLIS 69 202 27 2 #2

Congrats to the Colts as they now hold the record for consecutive wins. HC Caldwell has said the Colts will go for the 16-0 record but will start sitting players if injuries do occur. The Jets were on a 3 game win streak before the disappointing loss to Atlanta last week at home. The Jets defense has stepped up the blitzing & in an impressive 3 game stretch they held Carolina, Buffalo & Tampa Bay to 8 points per game, 9 FD/game & only 165 yards per game. It doesn’t matter who is playing QB with that type of defensive production. RB Thomas Jones continues to gel with his OL and over the last 8 games he’s averaging 112 yards per game & 4.7 yards per carry getting at least 21 carries in every game. Solid defense & a power rush attack will keep you in every game especially in December but the Colts keep the undefeated season alive.

PHIL’S FORECAST: INDIANAPOLIS by 1

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