During the offseason I had just one weekend blog but each week during the season I will take a look at the Top 25 performances from the just completed week with a little analysis as well as a quick review of the past weekend. On Monday I will give you my News & Notes where I delve deeper into every game that was played this past weekend, breaking down individual drives and giving you misleading finals and other interesting tidbits.
As far as my game grades go after the 2008 season was completed I devised a power ratings system, which lets me analyze at what level each team played during an individual game. This “game grade” takes into account the yards rushing, yards passing, points scored, rushing yards allowed, passing yards allowed and points allowed and factors them in against the opponent played and even factors in the site the game was played at.
With all these factors taken into consideration you will see teams that lost the game having a better individual game grade than teams that beat them simply because the team they played was superior and much less was expected of them.
Top 25 Game Grades (Team Performances) Week 7
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*Means Garbage Yards/Pts Were Subtracted (Includes all OT Yds/Pts)
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|
|
|
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OFF |
OFF |
OFF |
DEF |
DEF |
DEF |
Gm |
|
Rank
|
|
|
FOE |
RUSH |
PASS |
PTS |
RUSH |
PASS |
PTS |
Grade |
|
1
|
TEXAS TECH |
AT |
Oklahoma |
162 |
434 |
41 |
127 |
406 |
38 |
110.9 |
|
2
|
STANFORD |
|
Washington |
446 |
169 |
65 |
162 |
262 |
21 |
110.6 |
|
3
|
USC |
AT |
Notre Dame |
219 |
224 |
31 |
41 |
226 |
17 |
106.7 |
|
4
|
ALABAMA |
|
Tennessee |
141 |
294 |
37 |
92 |
63 |
6 |
106.2 |
|
5
|
LSU |
|
Auburn |
177 |
219 |
45 |
25 |
139 |
3 |
105.6 |
|
6
|
OREGON |
AT |
Colorado |
371 |
156 |
45 |
98 |
133 |
2 |
104.8 |
|
7
|
OKLAHOMA ST |
AT |
Missouri |
204 |
329 |
45 |
253 |
215 |
24 |
102.0 |
|
8
|
ARIZONA |
|
UCLA |
254 |
319 |
48 |
37 |
286 |
12 |
101.8 |
|
9
|
CALIFORNIA |
|
Utah |
129 |
255 |
34 |
-3 |
117 |
3 |
101.5 |
|
10
|
TCU |
|
New Mexico |
264 |
251 |
69 |
64 |
21 |
0 |
100.1 |
|
11
|
OREGON ST |
AT |
Washington St |
175 |
376 |
44 |
83 |
232 |
21 |
96.3 |
|
12
|
S MISS |
|
SMU |
187 |
266 |
27 |
157 |
173 |
3 |
96.0 |
|
13
|
KANSAS ST |
AT |
Kansas |
261 |
205 |
59 |
88 |
169 |
14 |
95.4 |
|
14
|
AIR FORCE |
AT |
Boise St |
271 |
145 |
26 |
142 |
279 |
37 |
94.9 |
|
15
|
CLEMSON |
|
North Carolina |
75 |
372 |
59 |
64 |
263 |
31 |
94.6 |
|
16
|
FLORIDA ST |
|
Maryland |
218 |
264 |
41 |
54 |
214 |
10 |
94.3 |
|
17
|
NEBRASKA |
AT |
Minnesota |
346 |
169 |
41 |
97 |
68 |
7 |
94.1 |
|
18
|
SYRACUSE |
|
West Virginia |
194 |
249 |
49 |
70 |
338 |
23 |
92.1 |
|
19
|
MICHIGAN ST |
|
Wisconsin |
108 |
290 |
37 |
223 |
223 |
31 |
92.1 |
|
20
|
WISCONSIN |
AT |
Michigan St |
223 |
223 |
31 |
108 |
290 |
37 |
91.9 |
|
21
|
TEXAS A&M |
AT |
Iowa St |
247 |
263 |
33 |
125 |
180 |
17 |
88.6 |
|
22
|
MIAMI FLA |
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Georgia Tech |
121 |
140 |
24 |
134 |
77 |
7 |
87.7 |
|
23
|
NC STATE |
AT |
Virginia |
114 |
231 |
28 |
124 |
125 |
14 |
86.1 |
|
24
|
BYU |
|
IDAHO ST |
290 |
282 |
56 |
20 |
231 |
3 |
85.8 |
|
25
|
VANDERBILT |
|
Army |
344 |
186 |
44 |
270 |
18 |
21 |
85.8 |
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For the last couple of years I have picked the games involving the Top 25 teams and thrown in a couple of upset picks. This year I thought you might be interested in who I think will win EACH FBS game this weekend. Every Friday I will give you my personal forecast on every game that involves a FBS team.
I list the projected scores from my computers forecast. Another column shows you the computers yardage forecast for each game. I think it will be interesting to see who the computer picks to win the yardage battle and see if they win the game. In my College Football magazine I have the plus and minus ratings. I update them weekly and then factor in the home edge and I will show you who the Plus Minus ratings forecast. I will also list who Vegas has favored to win each week and we can see how they do picking the actual winners of games. There is also a WEEKLY POLL which you can enter for free each week. What I will do is on Friday morning I will tabulate the vote on each game and list who the fans are picking to win the games.
Listed below are each of these category picks for this week and I will then have a running total for the season for them! Here are the selections……. Read more…
Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game. Last week the Top 25 Forecasts went 13-4 (76%) and so far this season I am 103-17 (86%).
Last year the Top 25 forecasts went 205-60 (77%)! On the boDID ttom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week.
#1 LSU VS #20 AUBURN
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|
Rushing
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Passing
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Points
|
TO’s
|
ST
|
| AUBURN |
130 |
75
|
7
|
2.9
|
-
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| LSU |
210
|
200
|
36
|
1.4
|
-
|
|
|
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HT has won 10 of the L/11 games and Six of the L/7 gms (excluding ‘09) have been decided by a ttl of 26 pts and LSU hasn’t dropped B2B gms in this series S/’99-‘00. LY in the battle of Top 10 tms LSU tied it 17-17 early 4Q but all’d a 70 yd TD run w/5:05 left. LSU was SOD at its 32 and Aub ran out the L/3:20, 24-17. Aub did have a commanding 526-243 yd edge. LSU had outgained Auburn the previous 4 by 146 ypg and LTH won 31-10. This will be another day home gm for the LSU and while they are 9-4 in those gms under Miles, they are just 50% in those gms since 1960. LW LSU beat Tenn 38-7 as they outgained UT 383-289 and the 31 pt margin was the largest ever vs the Vols. While QB Jefferson continues to see more and more action Lee is still getting most of the snaps avg 155 ypg (62%) and a superb 11-1 ratio. LW Aub took adv of the young inexp UF QB’s by holding them to just 194 yds in the 17-6 win. With reg st’r Trotter struggling as of late, 3 diff Tiger QB’s got action incl Moseley who threw for 90 yds. RB Dyer is still the workhorse with 752 rush yd (5.1) and 8 TD’s. This is AU’s 3rd away game in 4 weeks and with a bye on deck for LSU, this will be the final time to make a statement before the showdown with Bama in two weeks vs a QB making his first start.
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PHIL’S FORECAST: LSU 34 AUBURN 10 Read more…
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